A technical look at GDX and GDXJ
Jordan Roy-Byrne, founder of TheDailyGold.com shares his technical insights on GDX and GDXJ. We dive into the weekly and monthly charts to determine where this pullback in gold stocks should reverse. The underlying assumption is that we are in a bull market but we do consider some levels that could change that outlook.
Click here to visit Jordan’s website for more information on his technical outlook.
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Thanks for having Jordan Roy-Byrne on the KER.
This guy has been all over the map for years
Jordan is solid and honest – two hard to find traits.
While the GDX has drop from here, I’ve noticed my penny stock miners are holding up rather well during this drop. It’s a good indicator to me that we are in a bull.
+1
We did not have a balanced budget under Bill Clinton FOR ANY YEAR.
THE DEBT INCREASED EVERY YEAR, under Bill Clinton.
Had the budget been balanced the National debt would have decreased or stayed flat. IT DID NOT.
Even including social security in the budget, since it was net in surplus, did not actually balance the budget, under Bill Clinton. He can claim a balanced budget, Hillary can claim a balanced budget, but they are LIARS.
You have got to laugh when Hillary says that Bill’s leadership put the economy in full drive and had a net surplus. If only it were that easy. Remember shovel ready projects? Where did they go? It takes so long to enact these things. If Bill Clinton successfully did create programs that created such massive economic growth, why did we have a recession in 2001 coupled with massive job outsourcing of the 90s?
All we have seen has been economic chaos, bubble after bubble, and out-of-control banking institutions.
And then there was that nasty little thing called Glass Steagall.
So my words for Hillary, “get into the real world, out of the Foundation and get a clue because you are outright foolishly clueless.”
Leader with pants down. Maybe be like Putin and only take off shirt and get on horse.
When gold’s fundamentals, meaning the TNX/PRII, turn south, that means gold’s rally will resume. The difficult part was that gold prices remained sluggish during the period when gold’s fundamentals moved against the gold price,munitions gold prices finally gave up the impetus and bowed to fundamentals. But in comparing interest rates vs. inflation as a matter of when interest rates will once again decline vs.an index of commodities stocks, the STOC 14,7,7 is about where it has turned in previous bull market conditions.
What we’ve seen is the steepening of the yield curve, which is probably over. The truly dangerous risk here is that treasury bills will not sell on the open market. The stock market just keeps going up and up while volatility increases. But we are thankfully in a market decline. Will the dollar keep going up because every other currency is just so much paper? You’ll want to be watching for a bounce in the pound.
You’ll want to have good look at the SPX HILO:
Not ‘munitions’ but ‘meaning that’
Good Catch!
But Jordan Roy-Byrne the hui has falling below the 400 day M-average now so you are optimistic and watching wrong gold charts to think a big come back is here and we cant get more oversold still. Low prices dont mean lower cant happen
Good, I mark that down, GDX 21, GDXJ 34.
Maybe hui stops half way down. So buying is good on 192.14 bounce. Possible no?
Very oversold can get much more oversold too 😉
Precisely richard. It is not too oversold weekly or monthly yet. Jordan is optimist.
If this is a bull market, you will probably have to wait many years for either a weekly or monthly RSI oversold reading.
After the HUI bottomed in 2000, it took 8 years to become weekly oversold again and 13 years for a monthly oversold reading.
The low is very likely within a week or two away.
I don’t want to give the wrong idea here.
Oversold getting more oversold is something that can happen in general. You always have to watch for this scenario.
Regarding the HUI, while it is possible to get more oversold, I like HUI at 195 for an upside test, i.e. long trade, but be nimble no base yet.
People have different definitions of oversold which is why I singled out the Relative Strength Indicator above. By that measure, below 30 is oversold and above 30 is not. In a bull market, daily chart readings below 30 can happen easily once or twice per year but the weekly or monthly readings below 30 tend to be many years apart, as mentioned above.
Excellent, but a very simple point overlooked
The reason Bill Clinton was able to “balance the budget” was because of accounting sleight of hand whereby a change was made so that social security and medicare payroll taxes which had been previously kept separate for the government’s bookkeeping got lumped together with general tax revenues. A complete sham.
And in my opinion, Bill Clinton’s Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin is the reason we have a no growth economy today.
Thanks for the Jordan interview. Good stuff.
J R-B, he’s definitely worth the money 🙂
I copy and paste my own posting from another location on the web:
via CEO.ca – Gold According To FT.com
FT.com has always added their fag to the fire(using the British connotation) when gold prices correct, and today is no exception. In a country which has absolutely no gold mining industry, they disparage gold as a turd polishing excercise. Of course, you would not put your gold on display at all, you would place it safely in a vault.
If you don’t have a very robust gold exchange, then your currency will not garner purchasing power. Part of the reason the pound has suffered is the London gold exchange has less prominence in the world as a daily gold pricing fix.
Your money absolutely has to be exchangeable for gold and vice versa. You also need a mint that will stamp your unrefined gold into coins and bars. It doesn’t occur to anyone that gold can be used for defeasement, because, after all, you ARE digging money out if the ground.
And then, of course, interest rates must trend below inflation for long periods.
The bottom is in.
-F6
via CEO.ca – Gold According To FT.com
FT.com has always added their fag to the fire(using the British connotation) when gold prices correct, and today is no exception. In a country which has absolutely no gold mining industry, they disparage gold as a turd polishing excercise. Of course, you would not put your gold on display at all, you would place it safely in a vault.
If you don’t have a very robust gold exchange, then your currency will not garner purchasing power. Part of the reason the pound has suffered is the London gold exchange has less prominence in the world as a daily gold pricing fix.
Your money absolutely has to be exchangeable for gold and vice versa. You also need a mint that will stamp your unrefined gold into coins and bars. It doesn’t occur to anyone that gold can be used for defeasement, because, after all, you ARE digging money out if the ground.
And then, of course, interest rates must trend below inflation for long periods.
The bottom is in.
-F6
My portfolio has been up about 1% all day so I didn’t realize GDXJ was down more than 3% until now. 😮