Wrapping up the gold, oil and US stock markets
Al and Cory wrap up today’s action in the markets. They discuss the moves in gold, oil, USD, and the US markets while also touching on the Fed minutes released this afternoon.
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I really don’t know, CFS. I would guess at least not practicing. That is just a guess on my part.
Just to let everyone know, as I have been quite opinionated about my investment strategies in this Comments section of KER.
I think the we are in a multi-year bull market for PM stocks. However, I cannot watch the market every day and read comment sections or even contribute, really (just too much real life to live).
So. I decided in mid-August to sell all or portions of my PM stocks to recoup my original investments. I started seriously investing almost two years ago (November, 2014 – yes, I was a Novemberist). I lost money trying to trade in the entirety of 2015. I have been a buy and hold type of person since January, 2016.
I’m pretty close to THE GOAL of getting all my original cash back, then letting the rest of the stocks positions just ride (sit tight). We shall see what the future brings.
So here is my list of “keepers” for the (hopefully) continued bull market in gold, silver and the stocks. I own all of these, but I am NOT recommending anyone buy without proper research and Due Diligence. I spent HUNDREDS of hours researching, charting, analyzing, reading, and following these companies – no more time for that:
Is there a trend in this list?
YES: High Grade + Safe Country
GOLD EXPLORERS AND DEVELOPERS
PVG (Pretium)
ICGQF (Integra Gold)
DRLDF (Dalradian)
SGSVF (Sabina)
GWSAF (GoWest)
BGMZF (Barkerville)
RGCTF (Redstar)
NTGSF (Golden Predator)
PROJECT GENERATORS
SMDZF (Strategic)
MRLKF (Millrock)
GOLD PRODCUERS (Only 1 left)
KLDX (Klondex)
SILVER PRODUCERS
USAPF (Americas Silver)
ISVLF (Impact Silver)
EXLLF (Excellon)
ASM (Avino)
SILVER EXPLORERS/DEVELOPERS
AXU (Alexco)
BXTMF (Brixton)
Good luck investing and trading everyone ! ! !
That’s a damn good list of mining stocks Brian (I own or have owned many of those as well). Thanks for sharing.
+1,i own many of those as well.
CNN Orders Black Out on Clinton’s Son
Don’t you mean a white out? 😉
I will make a guess….
I believe the gold and silver have world markets.
I am not a chartist, but I can observe. Looking at SGE prices, Knowing historically prices are set on the COMEX, after periods when the SGE has been closed, when it opens, I do not see rapid convergence to the COMEX pricing. Yes there is movement towards COMEX pricing, but after the SGE closes the COMEX may have significant price movement but it turns and gets closer to SGE pricing as the SGE is about to open. That tells me the SGE is now affecting the COMEX.
It may be that the COMEX does not have a lot of physical and is worried about losing too much, I don’t know.
I do observe the SGE pricing influencing the COMEX pricing, however, so here’s my guess.
With regard to silver Cory is wrong because silver on the SGE has failed to penetrate below about $18, except for a few minutes once, and it bounced back up to close above that level.
With regard to gold, I don’t watch as closely, but $1250 or thereabouts seems to be a line in the sand on the SGE. (It also seems India buying picks up significantly around $1250.)
(I know LPG is going to say, but the SGE has two price fixings a day;,thus it can’t drop for a few minutes. However, the fix is in RMB, and the conversion to US$ moves around a little.
The SGE price has never been fixed below $18 for silver)
With the SGE currently closed the price was last fixed: $1261.74 and Silver $18.27
WellsFargo CEO to resign effective immediately.
Trying to not end up in jail? You crook!
My gosh, Brian. You are better off buying the GDXJ. Too many stocks. You only need 2 or 3 good ones to make you absurdly wealthy.
Here are mine:
Silver Producer:
AG- First Majestic: Best in show for silver miner. Got to love Keith.
Gold Producer:
MXSG – Will beat every miner in this gold bull in % gains once the gold bull has ended.
Ryan
My question to you is are you absurdly wealthy? If not easier said then done. I’m of the belief that whatever your
Here’s a timely press release regarding First Majestic for any investors following them:
First Majestic Posts Record Silver Output In 3Q
Thursday October 13, 2016
http://www.kitco.com/news/2016-10-13/First-Majestic-Posts-Record-Silver-Output-In-3Q.html
Here’s a link to some updates from today on a number a great mining companies:
Kirkland Lake Reports Records For Output, Low Costs In 3Q
Asanko: 3Q Gold Production Exceeds Expectations
McEwen Mining On Target To Meet 2016 Guidance
Timmons Reports Higher Third-Quarter Gold Output
Richmont Meets 3Q Guidance; Island Gold Upgrades Completed
http://www.kitco.com/news/2016-10-13/Kirkland-Lake-Reports-Records-For-Output-Low-Costs-In-3Q.html
You, I would guess, we’re not around for Bre-X. There is some safety in numbers and diversity.
Great point CFS. There are many examples of investors that got their clocks cleaned if they had put all their eggs in one basket.
Look what happened with Rubicon, or recently with Orezone, or Nexgen, or many of the exploration companies that were so popular on many sites that put out duster holes or underwhelming results and tanked in the last few months. I know investors that had their account decimated by being overweight in just 1-2 stocks and then getting hit with the inevitable challenges that face all mining companies. That’s not my cup of tea……
Ryan – Just so you know I did enter Mexus (MXSG) in the #GuruChallenge on CEO, so I hope you are correct 😉
So far it’s been up as high as 2500% this year, so that’s not bad compared to my savings account at the bank. 😮
Good to hear, Excelsior. It’s been a fun ride. We had two days in Jan where we traded as low as $.0015 so we have been up over 4500% this year. I wish I could say I bought then, but did get in some as low as .003. I do know some guys who bought millions of shares at the lows and will be absurdly wealthy by the end. We are just getting warmed up.
I’ll just repost my entry on CEO, because I noted that low @ $.0015 in my comments, but my initial position was $.0035.
_________________________________________________________________________
[@Excelsior] – As far as this #GuruChallenge if we had discussed this earlier in the year I would have picked $MXSG Mexus Gold. I’ve been posting on it all year on the KER, and first positioned at $.0035 and it closed at $0.067 but got as high as $.0875 in August and the low was $.0015 in Jan of this year…. I’m all smiles on that one so far this year and I trimmed some back when it was a 21-21 bagger, and just hold the free ride position at this point.
The reason why I like it is that Mexus a #development stage company going into #Gold / #Silver #production. They have a private company as a JV partner $MarMar that has their heap leach pads in place, they’ve been blasting for ore and loading the leach pads and should announce commercial production in the near future. This should still be a nice catalyst for them, but they’ve already been up as high as 2500% this year but have pulled back some since their summer highs like most companies.
Here is the $MXSG Mexus Gold Year-To-Date Chart for a visual on the move this stock had so far this year, and technically they are just getting started and just acquired 2 other past-producing properties to develop next. I’m not thrilled that it has dipped below the 50 day EMA, but if they announce production later in October I’d expect it to pop on that news.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=MXSG&p=D&st=2016-01-01&en=(today)&id=p60936729259
7 Oct 2016, 16:50 #GuruChallenge
Ryan
Unless your absurdly wealthy your blowing smoke! Although I’m not completely disagreeing with you, I believe some folks are more keen on diversification and are able to manage a much larger portfolio. I would advise never to become a fund manager lol. My portfolio has been trimmed down to 4 mid/large cap, 1 small cap and 1 mini/small cap explorer.
I’m good with that and have been for few years now. Don’t let Matthew or shad tell you how many they have.
Matt this scotch drinker is down for anything and hanging with you lads for a day or two would be a wonderful idea. Mining conference as shad suggested would be good for starters. I’m all for learning and open ears.
Cheers my good man and fellow scotch drinker!
Great comments, good strategy, and all the best to you sir. Yes, down the road it would be great to meet in person, share a few drinks, share a few laughs, and possibly develop a strategy for Global Domination.
P.S. – Yes, I think the number of stocks I hold at times would probably scare many people 🙂
Not my first rodeo, Glen. My point was we will all do well at the end of this bull, but if you pick 1 or 2 out of your “best of” list, you will become absurdly wealthy. I made the mistake Brian made in the last run in 2008 by loading my portfolio with 10-15 gold stocks instead of putting it all in my top favorites. I would not suggest this for the average investor, only Brian because he has done his research. And yes…I am wealthy.
Good thoughts Ryan. If you pick the right 2-3 stocks, it can be the most lucrative plan.
Personally, I’m just not smart enough to pick the best 2-3, and even if an investor narrowed down the best 2 out of hundreds, those stocks will still only have good upward moves part of the time, but then flat-line or correct harder than their peers at different points in time. During these pullbacks or long consolidation periods, it is very likely that other stocks may outperform them and offer better opportunities for different windows of time in the cycle. Just look at First Majestic lately for example.
I like to rebalance my portfolio regularly based on new data, new deals/mergers/management changes/drilling results/jurisdiction changes….etc…. It works for me, but it’s time intensive. Some like the buy and hold strategy through the ups and downs. Some like 1 stock or 2-3, Some like a dozen, Some like 2 dozen, some like hundreds. I do think if the number in a particular sector get’s too large it is dilutive in energy and effect. However I believe and have experienced that I can build a better Gold, Silver, PGM, Base Metals, Uranium, Lithium, Agricultural ETF than the ones provided to the marketplace. As a result, I both enjoy and am rewarded by building my own group of targeted stocks. However, I completely respect investors that just pick one stock and knock it out of the park. (that’s way less work, but is far too risky for a my temperament).
Good discussion though.
Hey Excelsior. Hope you are doing well my friend. Good points. Different strategies for different people.
I am more risk tolerant maybe because I’m younger and wouldn’t advise this for most folks, but I kind of take the Bob Moriarty approach that even the chickens will fly in this gold bull. Meaning even the worst managed gold stock companies prices will soar so I just go with my best…..and that’s Mexus baby! No rich bankers with their hand in our pockets, no debt, management holding a lot of shares, land in a good jurisdiction, in the same trend /elephant country, and a JV partner who has mined the elephant country next door and knows what they are doing. You betcha!
Nice Ryan. Yes I love it when Bob M says that 🙂
As mentioned to you up above, I hope you are correct on Mexus. Eric Coffin started a Guru Challenge on CEO and MXSG was my pick for 2016. At one point this year it was up over 2500% so not too shabby….. In my mind it is still VERY risky at this point, but like you mentioned there are many factors in it’s favor that make it a calculated speculation.
In a private chat today an investor asked me which Silver company I thought was most undervalued at present. We had discussed all the usual suspects earlier in the conversation (Americas Silver, Impact Silver, Avino, Alexco, Brixton, Excellon, Silvercorp, Aurcana, Bear Creek, Santacruz, Great Panther etc….)
I told him I felt Cyprium Mining (CUG) (DFCPF) was the most undervalued new Silver producer at present.
He then asked which Silver miner I felt had the most upside and I couldn’t give him a single answer. I said it was a 4 way split between Americas Silver, Impact Silver, Alexco, and Bear Creek Mining. (I felt bad leaving Brixton and Excellon out of that discussion, but they’d be right up there).
So far this year though, it is hard to ignore that Silvercrest Mines has had the most upside leverage in the Silver space. Then the investor told me he had 2 positions (First Majestic and Silvercrest) but was going to add a handful more.
Really, I believe they are all good choices but didn’t let him know that I am really an idiot and sold out of First Majestic and Silvercrest earlier in the year and missed the epic moves in both those.
As a wise philosopher named Brian once said:
“If you can’t own all of them, at least own some of them”
that should have said most upside (leverage to rising Silver prices) for the 2nd part.
on cyprium mining being your favorite ( I have a few sh also, mainly on your recco)/ according to the sept 2016 presentation all 3 properties have no established resource or mineral reserve defined by 43-101, making decisions based on historical production records? why are you so hyped???i’m not backing up the truck on this one yet!
Hi dw jones. For clarity, I wouldn’t say I’m really hyped on Cyprium and it isn’t my favorite Silver stock by a long-shot. I didn’t advocate “backing up the truck,” and have always mentioned how I tier into a position and don’t buy all in one lump.
In the past I noted Cyprium seems very undervalued to me as the newest producer in the Silver mining space, and have discussed my opinions, and posted their press releases. The share price seems to be unaffected by hitting such a major milestone that few companies achieve.
Mexico is a jurisdiction I like and is quite common for Silver miners to operate in there, (but Mexico is not without some risk).
What I like about their approach of smaller scale mining is that they will be able to pay it’s debt back in a relatively short time frame and develop their other projects with short lead times to get their mines up and producing as well.
Some detriments are that they don’t have a big following, have gone through a name change, a change-up on the team, and will be starting out smaller scale than some investors prefer.
Now that Cyprium is fast tracking production as the metals prices have started their first leg of the new bull market, then it’s a real positive to me just in a sense of good timing in the cycle. In addition, they have contractual access rights to the Aldama 100 t/d flotation plant. They are also near infrastructure where it is easy to ship and sell their concentrate. (These factors help de-risk the project more than the share price reflects IMO).
Cyprium seems to have flown under the radar of most investors, so I noted that to me it seemed like an interesting story to follow as it develops and mentioned that I started building a position in it. However, this is also in tandem with 7-8 other Silver stocks just in this sector, and for me this holding is a much more speculative position.
Everyone should always do their own due diligence and make any decisions on a company that fits a speculative risk/reward scenario that they feel comfortable with.
Here is the September 2016 Corporate Presentation where dw jones is correct that they are mining based on historical estimates (which is more risky, but requires much less capital up front and reduced down the the ramp up time into production to a much shorter time frame).
Personally, I am fine with some risk because that is exactly why there is more uncertainty but also more upside surprise potential. Investors need to know what kind of risk they can stomach.
It should be mentioned that these are past producing mines so they know there is grade & historical evidence that mining was profitable in prior cycles, and most of these properties have not had modern technology or techniques applied (plenty of room for substantial discoveries).
In contrast, there are a number of other mining companies that are just drilling themselves into oblivion and issuing tons of paper that is diluting the snot out of investors without any plans towards production. Those kind of bottomless hole drill stories that become dilution factories, are less interesting to me unless they really have a high likelihood of making a significant discovery.
I’m interested in a number of companies that have strategies to start small, grow organically, get revenue coming in for more drilling and then define the resources as they grow the Measured & Indicated reserves. (Earn while they Learn approach)
There are plenty of risks, but also plenty of derisking that has been accomplished and yet they have the upside potential from production success, exploration potentional, and the plan for more prospective asset acquisitions as things develop.
http://www.cypriummining.com/documents/en/cyprium_presentation_september_26_2016.pdf
Also – Cyprium Mining’s property is adjacent to Mag Silver’s La Chinche property on one side, and Grupo Mexico’s project on the other side. Those are good neighbors to have.
thx for the explanation excelsior. your risk tolerance is greater than mine. not doubting your expertise or investigative talents just wanted to know why you were enthusiastic about this one! cheers & keep up the good work!!
Thanks dw jones. Yes, Cyprium, Nicola Mining, and Silver Bear are my more speculative Silver mining stocks. I’m also considering Bayhorse Silver as 4th speculative play.
I consider my current positions in Avino Silver & Gold, Americas Silver, Impact Silver, Alexco, and Brixton (and soon the addition of Excellon) to be risky, but less speculative because I understand their projects, their economics, and the large upside potential. Don’t get me wrong there is still risk to those companies like any mining company, and there is always the risk to the Silver & Base metals prices that underpin these companies, but I feel very comfortable holding core positions in them and adding more on pullbacks.
I’ve owned shares in most of the larger household names over the last few years (Hecla, Coeur, Fortuna, First Majestic, Silver Wheaton, Great Panther, Hochschild, etc….) and have owned the ETFs (SIL) and (SILJ) which have a cross section of many companies like Pan American, Silver Standard, Tahoe, Fresnillo….etc…
Those larger companies don’t really interest me as much, and with the exception of First Majestic and Coeur, those larger names had percentage gains that paled in comparison to the smaller producers, but they are of course “safer bets.”
To each their own and all the best with your investments sir.
This is an interesting topic to raise Ryan, but since mining is so risky, I feel more comfortable spreading the risk around a bit more. I like both First Majestic and Mexus (and own Mexus BTW), but I personally would not sleep at night if those were the only 2 stocks I owned.
Also, many of the stock Brian mentioned kicked the crap out of GDXJ on a percentage basis, so not all grouping of 20-40 stocks are equal. Personally I enjoy building my own ETF where I have the control of the positions, the weighting within the group, and the ability to exit or enter positions based on my own research.
If an investor is good at beating the averages then there is typically more reward in doing it oneself, but it takes time and work. If investors just want the household names though, and don’t want to spend the time doing the homework and calculated speculation, then GDXJ or GOEX or USERX or SILJ work great. It is also fine to own an ETF or Fund as a primary position, and then pepper in some of the riskier and lessor followed opportunities for potential outperformance.
As long as people have a plan and system, then that is what is key. Good luck to the investors here on the KER and may everyone’s investing strategy be very profitable for the remainder of 2016.
Great response shad as usual
Ever Upward.
I hope, Tim Sloan goes out on a limb and says, because of gross moral turpitude in allowing the illegal creation of thousands of fake accounts, all bonuses are hereby forfeited for any involved in this behavior, by omission or commission, I.e. knowing and failing to stop it, or actively participating in the action.
MSM media (multiple expletives deleted)
CNN needs to lose its license.
http://www.politico.com/blogs/on-media/2016/10/roland-martin-cnn-email-donna-brazile-wikileaks-229673
Here’s my two picks in the short term. TImmins gold (TMM/TGD). Spoke to the company today after noticing price action and volume. Added to my position after the very upbeat conversation.
First Majestic (FR/AG). In my view very over sold but when it turns it likely will do so quickly.
Price of gold also can play a factor.
Good picks, Richard. Good luck!
AG did a financing back in May.
First AG took an 8% hit on September 1, 2016 right after opening, after a shorting report was published by the shorting hedge fund Kerrisdale Capital Management. Plus another manipulative report on Seeking Alpha.
At that time there was some naked shorting, REG SHO alert.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/4003515-first-majestic-silver-corp-valuation-clouds-silver-lining
Definitely something dirty going on, in my opinion. Illegal, but it happens.
As of 10/12/16 there are 558,431 shorts on AG.
I don’t know the size of the float, but that’s a lot of shorts.
On 10/11/2016 GARWF Golden Arrow Resoutces was in violation of Finra rule 8320
Palisaderadio.com worth listening to.
The $ has broken out with gang busters.
This will be a strong head wind for gold.
More pain in the future after 5 years of pain.
The hits keep coming
Fed minutes and rate hike jabber causing dollar strength. Same as early this year, and bond and stock markets getting indigestion, soon to become food poisoning if rate hike jibber jabber continues. Fed will back off and dollar will come back down and pm’s will start next leg higher. Just like like what happened in February.
Not necessarily true.
If FED doesn’t raise other CBs just debase their currency more, i.e. ECB and BOJ
SO $ goes up
Fed could care less about gold price but they are joined at waist to stock market. Strong dollar kills multinational corp profits. Remember how stock market started the year? Worst in decades. Fed will not allow the stock market to go in the toilet because of strong dollar.
Actually, Fed probably does care about gold price, but they care a lot more about the stock market.
The net result is that negative real interest rates continue to provide a tailwind for precious metals.
NIRP PROVIDE tailwind for stocks.
Stocks have proven to be BEST inflation hedge
Just noticed you asked if HRC was a Christian…you are kidding right?
She is the devil incarnate
No,Obama carries that title for what he has done to the country. Setting race relations back 50 years, destroying what was left of the Constitution and building up debt to the destruction of the dollar and the economy.
She is a liar, a traitor who has sold out her country for personal gain. She is merely a greedy, lying piece of scum.
Measured against her Trump is merely an egocentric misogynist.
TRUMP is BACK in the lead!
Good thoughts for stock picking strategy on this thread! Thanks
A few good silver miners for the next few years will make folk very happy.
AEZS a biotech stock, is showing high volume price rise. What’s up.?
The Dow is testing support and looking heavy to me:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=DIA&p=D&yr=1&mn=5&dy=0&id=p84226982712&a=433404534
Matt this might portend a bounce in the PM’s? I think it does, but don’t have the “technical s” to back this thesis up.
Yes, not only do the miners’ technicals support the possibility of a bounce, but it is positive to see GDX/GDXJ up 1% today while SPY/DIA are down about 1.3%.
IF there is one more scary drop for the miners coming soon, it is my strong belief that it should be bought aggressively.
And now the gap between the gold stocks performance and the conventional stocks is widening (about +1.25 vs. -1.4%).
Sorry, I’ve made a mistake about the percentage declines of SPY/DIA – was looking at the wrong column. But the points are the same and the performance gap did widen as stated.
Compare GDX and GDXJ’s interaction with the 50 day MA and the 200/233 day MA/EMA and you can see that the juniors have been stronger than the seniors – and that is bullish and expected in a bull market.
GDX:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=13&id=p73189619194
There are so many mining stocks that have been oversold and been in sub 30 RSIs, that have now bounced up in the last few days.
So many potential buys…..
I agree and many have probably already seen their low for this correction.
CFS – Good point on the sub 30 RSI reading from many miners last week.
Ex, Matthew,
This one has come up with good news like good drill results, no debt ( just paif off), great drill program and good exploration potential. Is right up at previous highs before this last correction. Very strong performance this year!!
http://www.nighthawkgold.com/news/details/index.php?&content_id=115
Thanks, I’ve never even heard of it.
Thanks Blue – Yes Nighthawk Gold is quite popular on CEO, and I see people discussing it on the index or in the “drillplays” room, but I haven’t dug into their opportunity yet :
The big news appears to be that Kinross took a 9% stake in Nighthawk recently.
yes, and they released good drill results for the second time in a month, yesterday.
Very nice drill results. Thanks for the heads up Blue.
2016-10-12 16:42 ET – News Release
Mr. Joseph de la Plante reports
OSISKO ANNOUNCES NORMAL COURSE ISSUER BID
Osisko Gold Royalties Ltd. plans to commence a normal course issuer bid to purchase for cancellation, from time to time, up to 5 per cent of the issued and outstanding common shares of the corporation listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange over a 12-month period. The commencement of the program is subject to TSX approval.
Golden Predator drills 5.1 m of 32.1 g/t Au at Brewery
2016-10-13 08:40 ET – News Release
Ms. Janet Lee-Sheriff reports
GOLDEN PREDATOR INTERCEPTS 5.1 METERS OF 32.1 G/T GOLD AT BREWERY CREEK’S LUCKY DEPOSIT
Gold Standard drills 97.3 m of 3.16 g/t Au at Railroad
2016-10-13 06:55 ET – News Release
Mr. Jonathan Awde reports
GOLD STANDARD INTERSECTS 97.3M OF 3.16G AU/T AT THE NORTH DARK STAR GOLD DEPOSIT, RAILROAD DISTRICT, CARLIN TREND NEVADA
Sprott’s October outlook:
http://www.sprottglobal.com/thoughts/articles/october-gold-update/
Off topic:
Is HRC even Christian?
http://www.lifezette.com/polizette/wikileaks-podesta-left-wing-activist-plot-catholic-spring/