Trumpenomics – Its impact on the economy and resources

November 19, 2016

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This week Al and I are providing an extra hour for everyone! With so much to cover we have 2 hours of economic and investing commentary as well as an hour of politics – Click here for the KER Politics hour.

The economics and investing hours will focus on the new term Trumenomics. In the first hour we discuss the impact of Trumpenomics on the more broad economy and markets. The second hour is saved to dive more into the metals and resources.

We hope you enjoy the Economics and Political show!

  • Segment 1 & 2: We kick off the first 2 segments with Dan Oliver, Founder of Myrmikan Research based in New York. We discuss the historical similarities between what Trump is planning and what we have seen in the past.
  • Segment 3: Dana Lyons discusses the USD breakout and how this is impacting the precious metals.
  • Segment 4: Avi Gilburt joins us to share his technical outlooks
  • Segment 5: Byron King a general comment on the drivers behind the precious metals.
  • Segment 6: We continue our discussion with Byron but this time focusing on individual stocks.
  • Segment 7: VanEck Director, ETF Business Development Patrick Finn gives us an inside look at the GDX and GDXJ.
  • Segment 8: We wrap up the extra hour this week with Doc and Cory discussing the 2017 outlook for resources. Which will outperform?

Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show

Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show

Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show

Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show

Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show

Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show

Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show

Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show

    Nov 19, 2016 19:13 AM

    Thanks for the show as always fella’s.
    Cheers !

      Nov 19, 2016 19:19 AM

      Agreed. Looking forward to a jolly good show. Have a great weekend KER crew.

      Nov 19, 2016 19:21 AM


      Nov 19, 2016 19:46 PM

      Thanks or your work in providing the show, and also this discussion forum, in which to exchange ideas and knowledge.

    Nov 19, 2016 19:30 AM

    Am interested to see Avi Gilberts next written piece on pms. Whilst not always agreeing on his summarys, hes the expert and his technical analysis is interesting reading if nothing else. Im a little surprised to see the 1200 handle hold in gold. Maybe a glimmer or optimism before the interest rate hammer hits? ??

    Nov 19, 2016 19:38 AM

    My two cents – the interest rate hike will happen and that will simply knock gold and silver for six on the day it happens. I don’t believe it is priced in yet.

    So we still have a sizeable drop in gold to come which will probably give us Doc’s $27 price target for GDXJ.

      Nov 19, 2016 19:15 AM

      Contrary to popular opinion, the bottom is NOT in for gold. It sucks, but rates are rising, dollar is soaring and PMs well, we shall see.

        Nov 19, 2016 19:41 AM

        I thought I had said that.

          Nov 19, 2016 19:46 AM

          yes, I was just expanding on your thoughts.

            Nov 19, 2016 19:00 AM

            Good stuff.

      Nov 20, 2016 20:49 AM

      That’s definitely a possibility Bob UK. This could be accentuated by a Janet Felon rate hike as her term at the helm is most likely coming to a close in the near future. There is also the possibility of the initial sell-off on an interest rate rise, fueling that move down, but then also a likely reversal in that trend if the December lows in Gold are tested.

      If that plays out, then the double bottom scenario, where gold goes back to retest the December lows, and then bounces from there to new highs seems most likely to me.

      The W shaped double-bottom is a very solid support pattern, and it would be bullish for the longer term, but bearish over the next 3-6 months.

        Nov 20, 2016 20:53 AM

        Something to consider is that Gold can still rise in an environment where the Fed hikes rates, but where real rates are still negative, because inflation is higher. The Fed is definitely “behind the curve” as certain areas of the marketplace (entertainment tickets, health insurance, real estate pricing, education, etc….) are showing inflation creeping up.

        It will be interesting to see what effect the rate hike has on the US Dollar. If it sends the Greenback soaring to 110-112, then this will definitely pressure commodities and would be seen as “deflationary”.

          Nov 20, 2016 20:54 AM

          What a mess…..

    Nov 19, 2016 19:20 AM

    Agreed. I wish it wasnt so though.

    Nov 19, 2016 19:52 AM

    No such thing as Trumpenomics. Economics is a science like physics or biology and as such is based on immutable law. Trump will either act in accordance with that law which is good or he will ignore that law and bring about devastating consequences. Let’s remember reality: we live in a world governed by laws, moral and physical. The nature of a thing cannot change simply because man says so. And, just as there is no such thing as Trumpenomics, so there is no such thing as Obiology or Omedicine or Obamanomics, the twisting of truth for the purpose of serving the lusts of fallen (corrupt) man.

      Nov 19, 2016 19:16 AM

      but he has a bigly brain?

      Nov 19, 2016 19:17 AM

      I have to disagree. Economics has P.E. — physics envy. In order to emulate the sciences they create their abstract axioms and theories (e.g. the rational homo economicus) that are only loosely related to reality but allow them to pretend they’re doing science. And when their results don’t match reality, reality is expected to give way.

      Sure, I buy that there are some pretty rock hard principles, but overall, not a science. How could it be, when human behavior is an integral part of what it’s about.

        Nov 19, 2016 19:29 AM

        I don’t want Trump at the head of the economy for the same reason I don’t want him in the cockpit of a passenger jet. Human behavior can be an integral part of physics too. But your point is well taken.

          Nov 19, 2016 19:58 AM

          I can’t argue with that!!

          CFS got it right, I think. HRC and the MSM picked him because they thought he was the worst candidate possible, that even she could beat. But she forgot to look in the mirror (I wouldn’t want to either, if I were her).

            Nov 19, 2016 19:18 AM

            GH, fwiw, I left you a couple links under Thursday’s market wrap.

            Nov 19, 2016 19:28 PM

            Thank you Matthew.

    Nov 19, 2016 19:24 AM

    Will be an excellent time for banksters to be sure

    Bankers celebrate dawn of Trump era

    Nov 19, 2016 19:47 AM
      Nov 20, 2016 20:00 AM

      Just saw this interview with Keith. Thanks for the post wolfster, and it highlights the importance of knowing what currencies the miners one is investing in to operate, what currency they sell their commodities into, and what currency they report quarterly in.

    Nov 19, 2016 19:59 AM
      Nov 19, 2016 19:01 AM

      Is he ever NOT bullish?

        Nov 19, 2016 19:00 AM

        Thanks for the Adam Hamilton post wolfster.

        Bob UK – I agree that Adam has more of a bullish tilt, but I’ve seen him be bearish quite a bit in 2013-2015. Technically we are getting close to an inflection point to see if the metals can stay in the uptrend that started in Dec 2015, and continued into 2016 in quite an initial move up. Until that $1180 and then $1045 level falls then even in the face of a multi-month correction, then things are still leaning in the bullish direction longer term.

        Now if $1180 is taken out in Gold and spot prices spike down to the prior Dec lows, then we’ll look for a double bottom (like what Jordan Roy Byrne outlined on his MIF presentation and recent article that were posted on the KER market wrap yesterday).

        It would be a “W” shaped double bottom, and would be a healthier floor for Gold, as those kind of bottoms test the prior danger levels and if they pop to the upside then they are much more solid.


        For any investors that did not get a chance to watch the VIDEO Presentations from the Metals Investor Forum (MIF) they are all posted on yesterdays KER market wrap:

        Gwen Preston, Jay Taylor, Joe Mazumdar, Jordan Roy-Byrne, Eric Coffin, John Kaiser, and a number of company’s doing Corporate Slide Presentations:

          Nov 19, 2016 19:09 AM

          Here’s that article from Jordan showing his projection of what may play out if $1180 is broken and Gold retests it’s Dec lows. Obviously we have to see if gold can hold above this level first and consolidate here, but if it breaks down, this seems “W” shaped double bottom seems like a rationale expectation:


          Gold’s 2016 Bull Market Moving Off Course
          11/18/2016 | Jordan Roy-Byrne CMT, MFTA

        Nov 19, 2016 19:17 PM

        Adam is big-picture bullish because he’s smart. Short term… he’s still good:

        Silver Bull Faces Correction (July 22, 2016)

    Nov 19, 2016 19:15 AM

    One thing is for certain. If the December interest rate hike of a quarter point does not result in a change in the outlook of the major indeces in the U.S., then you can count on it that in defeating deflation, we are certain to meet with its the evil cousin, hyperiflation.

    Nov 19, 2016 19:56 AM

    DOC, MATT, Cory, BOB,
    It seems to me that everyone is on one side of the trade regarding the dollar.
    The Italians are NOT happy and might do a “SPLITALY” soon in a couple of weeks. Do you think that is a real reason the USD is eying that 111 mark? I guess, if that were the case, gold would be much much higher than it is now. Thoughts??

    DOC or other qualified prognosticators?

      Nov 19, 2016 19:31 AM

      I agree. Elections in both Italy and Austria are coming the 4th of December. If we follow the trend where the voters say ‘no to establishment’ we can see market reactions equal the turmoil after brexit where gold soared 😎

      Nov 19, 2016 19:13 AM

      Confused and Anders. Not only do you have the first week of December but you have elections coming up in 2017 with France being one of them. I hate to throw cold water on these events but I don’t think they’ll impact gold in dollars. They may however influence gold in Euros. These geopolitical events as evidenced in the past don’t move the needle much as regard the PMs. It often takes a major change in the financial narrative to get the gold mojo going again.

        Nov 19, 2016 19:17 AM

        Yes, it will be interesting to watch Gold in Euros and other currencies.

        One thing investors should stay aware of are the operating costs currencies of the mining companies in their portfolios, and what currency they sell their gold in. It is much different to own an Australian, European, Canadian, Mexican, or African based miner than a US based miner. It depends on how they submit their costs and where they have their gold concentrates sold, as well as where the home office reports.

        Nov 19, 2016 19:02 PM

        I imagine if either the French or Italians exit, it WILL start a huge fissure in the global banking system that will accelerate the rocketing of the U.S.D. Maybe I’m out to lunch, but should exits occur, I imagine gold will get a pretty serious bid in any currency including the u.S.D. Maybe the U.S.D will hit 160 before tilting the whole game.

          Nov 19, 2016 19:03 PM

          I meant “Exits”

    Nov 19, 2016 19:55 AM

    more names added to the “must go” list

    Jeffrey Pontius
    Rick Rule
    Frank Curzio
    Marin Katusa
    Rob McEwen
    Andy Hoffman
    Robert McCallum
    Keith Neumeyer
    Rob Kirby
    Nick Barisheff

    Of course some will resort to name calling and personal attacks but it won’t prevent me from doing the right thing.

    I know the “gold to the moon” and the $ is on the verge of an imminent crash are some people’s cash cows and they milk it for all it’s worth, but I will call it out wherever I see it.

    So attack on, because that is all you have.

      Nov 19, 2016 19:48 AM

      James, do the right thing and put your actions where your mouth is. Most if not all of the guys on your extremely silly little “must go” list do just that.

      It is really cringey that you genuinely believe that you are fit to dismiss guys like Rick Rule.

      JTL must go.

        Nov 19, 2016 19:43 PM


    Nov 19, 2016 19:41 AM

    Doc, you are seeing the possibility of GDXJ going down to 26-27 then presenting a buying opportunity perhaps in Feb. do you still see GDX going to the 19 level as well?Do you still see silver going to 16 or are we bottoming at this point?

      Nov 19, 2016 19:50 AM

      Pardu, I often pay more attention to when the next buying opportunity is versus price. To me the next good opportunity for the purchase of a lot of these PMs will be after January of 2017 turns the page. That’s when I feel we have another interim bottom in these things.

        Nov 19, 2016 19:53 AM

        I might add that I might “nibble” at some stocks when silver hits my 16 target but won’t go all in unless the technicals surprise me with a good outlook. I do know I’ll add to my bullion at that price since I’m in for the long haul.

    Nov 19, 2016 19:45 AM

    Pardu, I still see silver moving down to 16 over time. To me it’s not “if” but “when”.

      Nov 20, 2016 20:18 PM

      Thanks as always Doc, I value your insights.

    Nov 19, 2016 19:52 AM

    Lol.I give you an A for persistence and entertainment value…..interesting list.Rick Rule openly admitted selling a lot of his gold plays in August because they were overvalued.Its called trading…….and if it does go to the moon will you be able to admit being wrong.I for one have doubled my portfolio this year being in golds and zinc.Now I’m making it grow more in the pot and copper side along with still holding my zincs…..what is it you are doing to increase your portfolio?

      Nov 19, 2016 19:53 AM

      That comment is for James the lesser

        Nov 19, 2016 19:36 AM

        I think ur the first person Ive read saying you got into pot shares.
        I tried some zinc and copper,(my favs) they seem to struggle in a range right now.

        Pot has been great, the trading has been PHENOMENAL,(good enough even I can make coin) so I dont bother with slower moving stocks.
        I dont see the point.

        When gold starts to make sense Ill move into it again, that is if pot slows down.
        Right now the fundamentals are in huge favor of shares going higher.
        Who knows tho? Nobody knows anything.

        Maybe as Doc says, Jan/Feb. for PM shares.

        Potshares have been a good place to park cash while waiting for PM shares to get moving.

          Nov 19, 2016 19:04 AM

          I mentioned I had too the other day, b, but after the thread was cold I guess.

          I bought MJNA just before it launched, at the beginning of July. Peaked, went down, sold for small gain, and missed the 600% run. Nuts.

            Nov 19, 2016 19:10 AM

            End of July, I meant.

            Nov 19, 2016 19:28 AM

            Boo,… I dont follow the american market, but on the canadian ya just had to keep them.

            It is still prior to legalization, so they have a ways to go I think, also, there are not enough companies growing enough to meet demand. (thats a real fundamental)

            If ya had the right stock and were glued to the screen this past week, trading profited a person just under 80% of share price,(1 day) and by the end of the day the price was up again.
            So obvious even I made coin, and Im a horrible trader.

            I think potshares is the place to be at least until PMs start moving again.
            They are moving fast, 1 day alone there were 6 trading halts.
            But just owning some,closing your eyes and riding it out to legalization might be the way to go?
            They are so volatile my broker is not allowing “stop losses”

            “pot will get you thru times of no cash better than cash will get you thru times of no pot”

            I dont believe too many investors understand the meaning of that saying.
            Thats funny.

            Nov 19, 2016 19:58 AM

            A long while ago, I mentioned on this site phot, I said thats the one people will buy, its pot, thats what they will look for. (madness of men)
            I said it when it was 1/2 cent or less, it then went to about 80 cents I believe, fast.
            It was a “blow off” of course and since came back to reality.
            Unfortunately for me it was on the american market.
            That by the way, blows away any call anyone ever made on this site. lol
            nobody once said, “geez, none too shabby” more lols
            Couldnt help myself, there are gurus on here, I know nothing, like Bob, me and Bob know nothing. That is such a great book.

            In any case, pot is the place to be, maybe an oil company or two as well, Rick mentioned one and Bobs “torchlite”? american so Im out.

            Anyway, you might find it advantageous to do some due diligence on some potshares.
            Fundamentals are saying up they go, Like dollarama a while back.
            It wasnt dollarrama, it is 20rama. Fundamentals can pay big time.
            Dollar rama split enuff times I lost count.

            If potshares tank to zero, I will keep mine, they are going up.

            Nov 19, 2016 19:25 PM

            B, did you say “I like this half-cent company and here’s why I think it’s cheap and/or going higher”? Or did you show conviction by saying that you put a lot of your money into it (yes, “a lot” is subjective and relative)?

            Or did you simply mention that it exists, and nothing more?

            In other words, if it was just a “$500 on red” type bet, then it would make sense that it might not have caught anyone’s attention.

          Nov 19, 2016 19:33 AM

          I sold my pot shares at the end of the week.seems way overvalued and doubled my money so hoping they pull back but yes they have been great.

            Nov 19, 2016 19:56 PM

            I sold 1/2 when they quadrupled the first time, Im letting the “free” shares ride.

            When it has been obvious to me what theyre gonna do (gotta be glued to the screen)
            I attempt to trade, but they can get so volatile (at least canadian can) even I as horrible at trading as I am can make some coin.

            Nov 19, 2016 19:27 PM

            Pot is far far more liquid than PMs, a much much bigger market.
            Pms is not even in the same league as pot, and look what shares are selling for.

            Try this, offer people an once of silver, then offer a joint, see what people line up for.
            How about offer a joint for that cup of coffee instead of an once of gold that NObody would take? PMs is a “niche market”?

            I mentioned long ago, pot would be more valueable than PMs in a shtf scenario.

            Check the retail outlets in Vancouver or Colorado for pot and compare to PM stores, where are the line ups?

            Once youve done that ask yourself “what do people want?”
            Who has the product that is selling?

            Has alcohol ever stopped selling?

            A little forward thinking, how much pot is going to get sold once amazon gets it?
            There are already people working on apps for home delivery.

            Pot is an absolute no brains required opportunity that is in its infancy.

            Goldbugs might end up looking awful silly to have missed this one.
            If potshares go to zero, better keep them they going up.

            Market cap of wal mart,barrick,gg,amazon,coke,etc etc

            It is completely obvious.

            5-10% PMs 90-95% somthin else.

          Nov 19, 2016 19:21 PM

          I said, I dont buy the american market, I mentioned phot at the right time, nobody,nobody was interested in the least. I said phot, no ta, just understanding pot and people. Obviously I said I liked it, and if I recall, I said phot because people will want to buy pot shares.

          All the people here were only interested in PMs to the moon at the time.(as usual)
          People know how to do dd, except on phot there was none required, it was just a mania that needed to be recognised, all the talkin in the world wouldnt get people to see it, same as today, Potshares a huge, but what does Shad keep posting?

          Only Cory came close and was shot down.
          GH and Wolf sorta get it.

          Apply everything youve heard about PM shares to potshares, with potshares all that BS is true.

            Nov 19, 2016 19:39 PM

            I missed it when you mentioned PHOT, and wasn’t aware of it until now.

            My concern with them is that I would guess that as a trendy sector, there are probably many that are worthless jokes. I haven’t yet gotten into the financial analysis side of the equation, so I have only tried to play short-term technical trades. And I almost never chase, so when they launch and I’m not in, it’s too late. But I agree with your general analysis–lots of growth potential (ha!).

            Jeff Sessions’ nomination may take some wind out of their sails…

            Clive Maund has been on top of this.

            Nov 19, 2016 19:48 PM

            PHOT — that’s a crazy chart. Occasionally gives a good stink bid opportunity.

            Nov 19, 2016 19:51 PM

            B – I’m not sure why you have to always throw in trash talking about me in specific. It’s a little over the top.

            There are plenty of others here on the KER that are also posting on miners & energy stocks. Here’s a clue: If you bother to check the show sponsors on the right hand side of the KER – none of them were pot shares….. all of them are and have been miners or energy stocks (except Theralase).

            I’ve never spoken out against your pot share posts, so I’m not sure why you continually take swipes about me posting about miners.

            You do realize there are other websites that focus on pot stocks. Maybe you’d be happier there, or maybe you just need to smoke some of what you’re pushing….

            Nov 19, 2016 19:11 PM

            GH, I dont follow the american market at all, the reason I knew phot was gonna go is I understood people would want to buy pot, the share phot was the obvious choice, no idea what their business plan or financials look like. That was just understanding people and herdthink.

            Shad, Im not throwing anything, just sayin all your post are not the most profitable info at this time, a miss direction if you will.
            Not trash at all. nor intended to be..its just the profit is not and has not been in PMs, recently…its been in potshares.

            You goldbugs have tunnel vision I think.

            Anyway, was not trash, was just sayin.
            PMs are struggling to down, potshares are moving up so fast they get repeated trading halts.
            Whats that expression? hoover dam threw a garden hose?
            All that BS about PM shares is going to prove true for potshares.

            Volitile as heck tho. Some people might want to close their eyes.

            Nov 19, 2016 19:15 PM

            Shad, no I didnt realize there were sites for potshares. lol
            I really dont see why there would be, there are so few.
            Of course the american market might be different, which would do me no good anyway.

            Someone that wants American stocks might check out Clive Maud for guidance.

            Nov 19, 2016 19:28 PM

            I just looked at the PHOT chart and it is not confidence inspiring. B, goldbugs appear to have tunnel vision to you only because you’re not interested in real analysis. PHOT was nothing but a crap shoot gamble on the madness of crowds. The miners, on the other hand, are that and much more.

            Nov 19, 2016 19:40 PM

            I’m curious what implication this may have for the overall industry? This would affect growers that supply Canada, and would affect Canadian growers that may have supplied the US markets.


            ‘Drug War Dinosaur’ Jeff Sessions Seen as Existential Threat to Pot Industry
            Donald Trump’s pick for attorney general could unravel the multibillion-dollar cannabis industry, which operates in violation of federal law.

            By Steven Nelson | Staff Writer Nov. 18, 2016,


            Nov 19, 2016 19:06 PM

   do realize when the entire sector goes up even the ones with nothing but a claim to be in the industry,it’s usually time to be careful.other than Cgc mt and a couple that aren’t coming to me right now,the rest are comparable to cow pasture mining stocks.

            Nov 19, 2016 19:10 PM

            Agreed wolfster.

            See the Chris Parry article below about the “weed bubble” the markets are in. It’s been a high-flying sector this year, but many of the supposed companies are full of hot air….

            Nov 19, 2016 19:15 PM

            from the Chris Parry “Weed Bubble” article below:

            “To be sure, every weed company is having its moment of excessive exuberance. Companies that had $3 million market caps last month have $30 million caps today. Nobody is looking at profits, they’re all looking at potential. And that’s the formula for a good old fashioned dotcom-styled bubble.”

            “CGC may continue to rise. As long as people believe other people will buy in behind them, CGC will have more inflation room, and there’s no indication that anyone is done with the weed bubble yet.”

            “But when it comes back, boy howdy, is there a lot of room to run, based on those revenue figures. I mean, if the shorters storm the bastille, that’s some Bre-X-styled drop in the making.”

            “It must be tough to be in the resource sector and watch the madness that is the weed world right now, because we know how this all ends. When everyone is overinflated, it only takes a small misstep to bring the whole thing down.”

            “Which is why I’m taking my profits. Don’t be the last one off the train.”

            — Chris Parry

            Nov 19, 2016 19:26 PM

            geez Mathew, your really showing you dont understand people.
            HUGE gains in that one for anyone that did know about the opportunity and understood what was happening.

            There was no crap shoot Mathew.

            Pot will get you thru times of no money better than money will get you thru times of no pot.

            Probly best for you to stick with PMs.

            Nov 19, 2016 19:01 PM

            Of course it was a crap shoot. PHOT went right back to .001 from .085 this year and was .80 two years ago.

            Would you feel just as comfortable putting $100k into PHOT as Impact Silver? If so, you should steer clear of investing for your own good.

            Nov 19, 2016 19:45 PM

            Cow pasture mining stocks?
            Maybe I dont know them all.
            But the ones on my list are all growing now and have been for awhile and are expanding as fast as they can.

            Again, I know nothing of the american market.

            Nov 19, 2016 19:57 PM

            Mathew, you show you need to stick with PMs.
            Use ta.

            PHOT was the same thing as a Phospherous company I knew of in Mali. that company went up, a good company, and then “OOO NOOO” bad guys with guns came along and the price dropped to almost zero, then low and behold, the french sent their army in to chase the bad guys away (time to buy) and the price went from pennies to dollars in about a week.
            No ta required,PHOT was the same thing, no ta required.
            Both were common sense.

            If your asking me If I would bet on PHOT now? not a chance, but 2 years ago? You bet, was a no brainer.(again, im not on american market, I was just telling people that were on the american market)

            You used to go back months to find what people said nobody remembered, go find what I said, youll see.

            I think it bothers you a bit ta really isnt required, it is if your trading for small % I guess, but as I said previously, Im after home runs.
            Maybe the way to say it is there are other ways to trade than ta.

            Nov 19, 2016 19:35 PM

            You didn’t answer my question and I do not believe you had a clue about the fundamentals of the company.

            Thanks, but throwing darts and risking pocket change doesn’t interest me.

            Nov 19, 2016 19:04 PM

            Mat, you dont have a clue.
            No problem.
            Interesting how hard you attempt to degrade something you missed entirely.

            Maybe read Bobs book. Never hurts to learn somethin.

            Nov 19, 2016 19:22 PM

            Ok b, thanks.

            Nov 19, 2016 19:23 PM

            Oh, almost forgot, LOL 😉

            Nov 20, 2016 20:06 AM

            B.Perhaps some clarification is needed.I am Canadian and only trade in Canada.I made a reference to cow pastures comparing the mania in Rees,lithium uranium etc. to the pot mania now where some just mention switching to the pot industry and their stocks take off.Anyone with “common sense” would understand that.

          Nov 19, 2016 19:52 PM

          Cannabis Beer Brewer Prepares for National Distribution
          Unlike long-allowed hemp seed beer, this one comes with cannabinoids.

          By Steven Nelson | Staff Writer Oct. 13, 2016

            Nov 19, 2016 19:01 PM

            B – I’ll extend the Olive Branch (er….. Ganja Branch) to you, to take the High Road.

            One of top names I hear discussed with pot stocks is Chris Parry. Much of his site and followers are focused on that sector.

            “Parry is considered the preeminent expert on business opportunities in Canada’s medical marijuana sector, and is also deeply entrenched in technology and biotech, as well as the resource world. ”


            Nov 19, 2016 19:04 PM

            Let’s be honest here: It’s a good old fashioned weed bubble
            Chris Parry – November 15, 2016


            Nov 19, 2016 19:33 PM

            Cannabis beer? Well, I have drank some pretty lousy beer that seems to stay in business. Maybe its good, no idea.

            Ive never heard of Mr Perry, maybe he will help some people that dont understand grass.
            Now you/he mentions medical, he might very well understand the medical part of it.

            Now here is the secret, medical is meaningless, they gonna legalize.

            They use the excuse of medical to position themselves for legalisation.

            Legal sales are going to blow away any metric used to measure.
            Medical is going to be such a minute % it is going to seem meaningless.

            You guys dont get it, think tobacco smokers, you guys hear on the news about the little ol lady that uses pot to help arthritis, or the guy getting over a stroke or any of the multitude of ailments pot helps physical and or mental.(i need to inhale 1/10 of a gram per day for my arthritis and dont inhale so I dont overdose)

            Now, think………., the last thing a guy does before going to bed is roll a joint,…….. the first thing he does in the morning is “fire it up”.
            Thats a pot smoker.

            Now think of the millions upon millions of smokers.

            Bubble, sure, maybe….so?

            Pot has been a good spot to rest cash until gold gets moving.

            Nov 20, 2016 20:11 AM

            B the recreational use has mostly passed in the US in about eight states. While agree more than half of US citizens in these states have voted for legalization, (and I’m fine with that by the way), that movement may run into a wall with the new administration, as it is still against Federal law.

            In Canada, the movement has been to legalize the concentrates, not the flower buds, and the vast focus is still on medicinal use in Canada if you’ve really been following along. It may morph into recreational but at this point that is very speculative and there are still roadblocks to that happening.

            The reality is that there is already a healthy medicinal use in both the US and in Canada in cities like Vancouver. Much of that is grown in British Columbia and in the USA. If the Trump administration puts the breaks on the US growing, it will severely impact both countries.

            I asked you up above about what implication this may have for the overall industry, in both countries?

            ‘Drug War Dinosaur’ Jeff Sessions Seen as Existential Threat to Pot Industry
            Donald Trump’s pick for attorney general could unravel the multibillion-dollar cannabis industry, which operates in violation of federal law.
            By Steven Nelson | Staff Writer Nov. 18, 2016,


            Nov 20, 2016 20:28 AM

            I do think overall, Canada will have a huge advantage over the US on the global scene if legalizes recreational use on the Federal level before the US does. It is interesting how the US has so many restrictions and in what you can and can not do with your own body in the “Land of the Free.” (not really so free after all)

            Really, the government should have a say in taxation and importing/exporting regulations, but they should not be telling citizens what they can and can not put into their bodies electively. The “War against Drugs” has been an absolute failure, wasting insane amounts of taxpayer money, profiled certain demographics disproportionately, and paints everyone with a same broad brush. It’s been a disastrous approach for the last 50-60 years, and it seems the people, the business community, and even policy makers are finally open to a change.

            My question is simply how much of a backlash will there be against these policies under the new Trump administration?

            Nov 20, 2016 20:38 AM

            B – by the way – Chris Parry is seen as the expert in “medicinal marijuana” and I have heard his name come up from a dozen different investors on CEO that trade the pot stocks, so I know he is a go to ganja guru in the space.

            I’m sure he is very aware of the initiatives to pass the recreational use in both Canada and US, but right now, LEGALLY, the only things available in Canada are the medicinal outlets. If Trudeau really makes recreational legal for all of Canada (both the concentrates, edibles, AND the flower buds), then I agree that the focus will quickly shift over to the tax revenues, and business revenues from the recreational marketplace.

            It will be interesting to watch this sector go throw its growing pains, but there are clearly many companies positioning on nothing more than hope of a change. To go “All In” on a company that isn’t developed across supply/distribution channels yet is quite risky, and the market has gotten very frothy.

            Think what would happen if the initiatives get blocked, changed, shut down completely. Those stocks would fizzle out suddenly and there would be no way to exit without severly damaging your portfolio.

            As long as you really how incredibly speculative and frothy the sector is – then go for it. But to claim it is better to hold money in pot stocks than in cash, is a poor comparison in my opinion as investors are going to cash for safety from loss. That would be like say storing your money in BioTech stocks is better than storing in cash. They are apples and oranges. One is a super-speculative bet, the other is a move to presumed safety.

            Nov 20, 2016 20:06 AM

            I guess my point above was that with so much “Volatility” in the Pot Stocks, then I don’t think advising investors storing money in Pot versus Cash is even in the same ballpark. Again, like storing all your money in risky Bio-tech versus Cash is also apples and oranges.


            Marijuana Stocks: Volatility Baked in for Now

            Shares in Canadian cannabis producers soared and fell yesterday in a speculative frenzy. Then they were up again this morning. Khurram Malik of Jacob Capital Management says the advent of a large recreational market should see these stocks higher in a year’s time but during the next six months, there will probably be some alarming dips and steep rises.


            Nov 20, 2016 20:20 PM

            b – after whining about nobody discussing pot stocks with you for the last 2 months, we try to have a discussion with you about the sector, and suddenly experts like Chris Parry, and the analysts that follow the sector every day that BNN brought on don’t know anything, but you have it all figured out. Spare us the ignorance….. (stems from the world ignore).

          Nov 20, 2016 20:46 AM

          Here is an interesting piece from BNN where they discuss both the Canadian and US weed markets, and the legalization concerns in both countries.


          WEED’S WILD WEEK

          “Shares in Canopy Growth Corp (CGC.TO), which says it sold more than a tonne of weed in its latest quarter and harvested 1.7 tonnes, soared from $9.34 a share last Friday to almost $18 this past Wednesday in frenzied trading. On the same day, halts were triggered on several Canadian cannabis stocks. By Friday morning, Canopy shares dropped to $13.59, still up 45 per cent on the week and representing a market value of $1.5 billion.”

          “Aurora Cannabis (ACB.V) – whose “garden is home to thousands of happy plants growing in the foothills of the Canadian Rocky Mountains, sipping fresh mountain water in gentle breezes and basking in ideal lighting conditions” – closed at $2.12 last week, jumping more than 50 per cent to $3.37 a share this Friday.
          Meanwhile, shares in Aphria Inc (APH.V) climbed from $4.64 last week, to hit $6.41 on Friday.”


          “Investors betting on the advent of a large recreational market in Canada should see weed stocks move higher over the next year, but there will be big price swings on the way, Khurram Malik of Jacob Capital Management said.”

          Marijuana stocks: Volatility baked in for now

          “Shares in Canadian cannabis producers soared and fell yesterday in a speculative frenzy. Then they were up again this morning. Khurram Malik of Jacob Capital Management says the advent of a large recreational market should see these stocks higher in a year’s time but during the next six months, there will probably be some alarming dips and steep rises.”

          “It’s risen a little too quickly for our comfort,” Malik said in an interview with BNN on Thursday.”

          “Yes it’s a speculative sector, yes it’s a high-risk sector, yes it’s a highly volatile sector. But if you’ve got a two- or three-year investing horizon it’s not a bad time to get in [on marijuana stocks].”

          “Investors will also have to weigh the implications of how marijuana regulation develops in the U.S. ”

          “While U.S. president-elect Donald Trump has said states should be allowed to decide their own cannabis policies, he’s also a close ally of Rudy Giuliani. The former New York City mayor is said to have presided over the transformation of the city into “the marijuana arrest capital.” And, Vice President-elect Mike Pence has backed tough punishment in Indiana.”

          “Canopy Growth chairman and CEO Bruce Linton told BNN that the continued federal ban south of the border means his company has a powerful competitive advantage because it will let Canopy lock up intellectual property.
          U.S. producers will remain “fractured and fragmented… they can’t patent and they can’t trademark,” Linton said.

          He added that Smith Falls, Ont.-based Canopy has valuable technical knowledge and strong brands such as Tweed, which it touts as “approachable and friendly, yet reliable and trusted.”

          Canopy Growth CEO: Trump presidency will help Canadian pot stocks

          Canadian marijuana stocks are rising on Trump’s talk of targeting and restricting U.S. pot producers’ ability to sell their product across state lines. Canopy Growth CEO Bruce Linton weighs in.

          But Commodities guest Chris Damas, publisher of the BCMI Report, warns that U.S. growers have plenty of expertise.

          “Methinks they are pretty good at growing marijuana down in California and even in the wetter climes of Washington, Oregon and Colorado,” Damas said in an email to BNN.

          “Recreational cannabis legalization in the four states that voted for it last Tuesday has nothing to do with Canada, except as a potential competitive threat. That market is already being satisfied – either illegally, or via co-ops.”

          Still, investing in makers of the drug may be too much to stomach for some investors.

          Gordon Reid, president and CEO of Goodreid Investment Counsel, told BNN in an interview on Thursday that he’s avoiding marijuana stocks, partly because they carry too much social stigma for many of his clients.

          “Just as with cigarette smoking and other socially sensitive issues we want to be on the right side and we feel we have made the right decision,” Reid said.

          Meanwhile, in time-honoured fashion, executives in this hot sector have been quick to take advantage of investor interest.

          Supreme Pharmaceuticals (SL.CD) sold $50 million worth of convertible debentures garnished with share purchase warrants exercisable at $1.70 per share for three years. As of Friday, its stock traded at $1.81. The debentures are convertible at just $1.30 a share.

          OrganiGram Holdings Inc. (OGI.V) sold 9.9 million shares at $3.55 for proceeds of $35 million. The shares traded at $3.88 on Friday.

          Aphria last week sold $35 million worth of stock at $4.

          Damas of the BCMI Report warns that the euphoria may not last, especially when Trudeau actually unveils his legalization scheme.

          “The overblown potential of the ‘recreational’ cannabis market potential misreads Justin Trudeau and the Liberals’ intent. Trudeau has repeatedly stipulated that decriminalization has been proposed to make cannabis LESS available, not more, especially to youths,” Damas said.

          Marijuana stock euphoria: Should you join the wild ride?
          By Andrew Bell

            Nov 20, 2016 20:01 AM

            Marijuana Stock Highs Scaring Off Investors, Says Analyst

            “BNN speaks with Jason Zandberg, special situations analyst at PI Financial. He says the retreat in cannabis stocks is “healthy” as the rise has gone too high, too fast. He also talks about why Canopy Growth remains his favourite in the space.”


            Nov 20, 2016 20:01 AM

            I didnt read that long one, too long.
            From what I did read, these guys are trying to anylaze.
            I wonder if any of them ever smoked a joint?

            I saw somewhere you said I didnt answer a question, I forget the question and Im not going thru that post again.

            They are going to legalise in Canada, what the US does make no dif to canadian growers, the demand cant be met here much less the U.S.
            These “anylisers are saying medical, they dont understand”

            Nov 20, 2016 20:09 PM

            They must have mentioned the impacts from medical to recreational about 10 different times in the videos on those links. Their focus was about how recreational may affect the overall market, the permitting process, and how many companies may actually survive.

            Clearly you didn’t put any effort or attention into what they were actually discussing.

            b – You whine about people not wanting to discuss pot stocks, and then when people take the time to actually discuss the issue, you rant on and on about how much nobody knows about the topic. Ironic since you didn’t even listen to what they discussed.

            Maybe this is why nobody wants to discuss this with you. (ding, ding, ding).

            Nov 20, 2016 20:55 PM

            If you dont get my point, dont buy the shares.

            If you want to listen to “gurus” go ahead.
            I have heard enough “gurus”,

            I am not complaining about people not talking about them, there is no one here that knows enough about the industry to have a productive conversation with, I just think an investing site might want to make their patrons aware.

            If 500% profits and better and phenomenal trading while their PM stocks languish and tank is not enough to make people understand, geez nothing will.
            Heck, there was one american grower that made people 1000% already.
            You actually think profits are going to stop?
            Its not even legalised yet.

            But maybe your right, everybody that has anything to do with any of it is just “stoned” and they are all going to zero.

            Pot is more liquid than gold, pot will get you thru times of no gold better than gold will get you thru times of no pot.

            Nobody caught on so I figured I would be blatant.

            Kinda like all the “to the moon” PM dealers.

            Nov 20, 2016 20:43 PM

            b – do you actually read what other people reply back to you, or do you just pontificate the same points over and over without any appreciate for the time others spend addressing the points you raise?

            You didn’t reply to any of the questions that Matthew and I asked you in the multiple threads up above. It would have have been much easier to ignore your posts, but I tried to have an intelligent discussion with you. (I don’t know why I bother with you though).

            The BNN videos I posted with sector analysts and the Chris Parry articles all discussed the emerging RECREATIONAL market, and yet you’ve continued to repeat that anyone discussing medical cannabis doesn’t understand the recreational demand. Huh?? Your responses could only be the result of someone that didn’t read or listen to anything posted up above.

            We get it, the people in the articles get it, and the people in the videos that were posted get it. Got that?

            If you had put one ounce of effort or appreciation into those post you may have learned something or seen a few new Canadian companies to watch out for.

            Lastly – to address what you just wrote (because I actually took the time to read what you wrote) I’m just astonished at how you are now just making up things I said:

            “But maybe your right, everybody that has anything to do with any of it is just “stoned” and they are all going to zero.” – B

            I NEVER said everyone that had anything to do with it was “stoned” , nor did I say they were going to zero. Show me anywhere where I posted such nonsense.

            Again, I’m done discussing this with you, because you clearly didn’t read anything posted on the topic you’ve been beating the drum on for a while, or check to see if you point was understood the first 10 times you ranted on about it.

            Simply amazing….

            Nov 21, 2016 21:28 PM

            Ex, I learned many years ago that trying to reason with little b is virtually impossible. So there’s no point in wasting paragraphs on him. He’s awesome, in his mind, and you’re not going to change that.

            Nov 21, 2016 21:20 PM

            Understood and you’re correct. I don’t know why I even try….

            It’s creepy when people just start making up things they claim you said, and it’s immoral, but I responded in case others read his response back to me.

            Honestly I actually thought little b would appreciate those BNN videos and the Chris Parry articles for more information on the sector he keeps banging on about. He of course didn’t read them or watch the videos because he’s an expert in his own mind, and despite the fact that they were keenly focused on the Recreational market, he continued to drone on about how people looking at Medical didn’t know anything and were missing the bigger picture. Had he bothered to invest any time learning instead of hurling stones; then he would have realized that currently those people are experts in “medical” cannabis, because that is all that has been legal up until this point, and that they are all very aware of the ramifications of the Rec market opening up. They can’t very say they are experts in recreational marijuana until those initiatives pass.

            Oh well, hopefully other KER readers that may be interested in the pot stocks got some value from those posts over the weekend.


      Nov 19, 2016 19:52 AM

      wolfster – Great point about Rick Rule. I thought he called to the recent top well and mentioned it in several interviews. Yep, I’ve got some Gold, Zinc, and Copper stocks, but also Silver/Zinc/Lead stocks and some PGM stocks. I haven’t got into the Pot stocks, but at least did smashingly well in the quality Lithium stocks from mid 2015 into 2016. I can only handle with frothy market frenzy at a time though.

      wolfter did you check out the Vendetta Mining and Callinex mining MIF videos on yesterday’s market wrap? Also check out Balmoral? I’ve been watching them for a while now and like all 3. Atlantic Gold & Almadex Minerals have had me intrigued for a while, so it was nice to get an update on both of them as well.

      wolfster your question you asked is an important one:

      “what is it you are doing to increase your portfolio?” (good offense is often the best defense)

      I’d also add a defensive question as well though:

      “What are you doing to mitigate risk and protect your portfolio?”

      Good thoughts. Cheers!

        Nov 19, 2016 19:08 PM

        Thanks Ex.Callinex I have owned and follow closely.I’m big on the zincs(if you haven’t noticed that yet).Between callinex and Trevali,I figure I have hudbays next acquisition covered……Balmoral takes me way back to when I owned a phosphate play that I believe balmoral was a partner in.For some reason I remember balmoral management being all over the place and lacked focus on things.Will look and see if that has changed.Been accumulating Tinka lately but will check out vendetta.Also I mentioned gold zinc and copper specifically because right now they are where I’m overweighted but yes agree with holding silver lead and even nickel ….absolute no to aluminum though.

          Nov 19, 2016 19:34 PM

          Good thoughts on Zinc. Yes my favorite miners with Zinc exposure are Ivanhoe, Arizona Mining, Constantine, Vendetta, Tinka, Trevali, Callinex, Heron, Pasinex, Zazu, Solitario Exploration, and Eurasian Minerals has a few nice Zinc projects. There are a number of others I’m reviewing like Avrupa, Rox, Foran, Slam, Thunderstruck, Orosur, Ironbark, Canadian Zinc, Inzinc, Boliden, Aquila, Terramin, Vendanta, Horsehead, Yorbeau, Star Mountain, Vena, Taranis, Karmin, Metalicity, Emerita, and Altair.

            Nov 19, 2016 19:34 PM

            Yeah that’s a big list.i have to be honest time and funds limit my list to the best 4-5 I can find in each sector.

            Nov 19, 2016 19:09 PM

            To be clear I don’t own all those, but those are the ones that have my interest. The first 6-7 I mentioned are the primary ones I have owned, traded in and out of, or am considering purchasing. Thus far there hasn’t been time in my schedule to compare the ones I like most against the others, to determine which ones may have the biggest value drivers.

            One of the reasons I like throwing out multiple names, is with the hope that other investors may be more familiar with them and have information, suggestions, warnings, strengths or weaknesses to review.

            There are of course many Silver companies with really nice Zinc credits too that we have discussed in the past, but I usually classify those in with Silver mining discussions.

            If anyone else has any Zinc companies they like or there are ones on that list that seem most likely to outperform, please don’t keep it a secret.

            Nov 20, 2016 20:03 AM

            Believe Nevsun should be on the list.They are now a primary zinc play for the foreseeable future.

            Nov 20, 2016 20:37 AM

            I agree, but didn’t want to bring them up and set off a certain poster that attacks any Nevsun post. 😉

            Nov 20, 2016 20:47 PM

            Here’s another installment of Doug Beattie’s “Zinc Mining Rambling”s:

            Module 9 – Zinc Mining in Mexico
            November 2016


        Nov 20, 2016 20:40 AM

        Watch Out: That Copper Surplus Isn’t Going Away
        BNN Commodities – 11/18/2016

        “Wood Mackenzie metals analyst Julian Kettle says the world looks set to go on producing more copper than it needs for at least a year.”

          Nov 20, 2016 20:57 AM

          There were some interesting thoughts on Zinc in that interview as well.

    Nov 19, 2016 19:58 AM

    I am done here.

    Al, thanks for a great forum where people can gather information and exchange ideas.

    Thanks to all your team including Cory, Doc and Rick.

    I will no longer be a contributor.

    Best success to all

      Nov 19, 2016 19:34 AM

      JTL; if you leave, who is there left to “drain the swamp”?

        Nov 19, 2016 19:11 AM

        Trump will get it done.
        Put ur suit on.

        Nov 20, 2016 20:10 PM


        If JTL leaves, consider the swamp drained.

      Nov 19, 2016 19:11 PM

      I’ll take that as a no to sharing what you are doing then……was honestly interested as I am always open to every ones thoughts as I decide what to do with my hard earned money.

    Nov 19, 2016 19:21 AM

    Ivanhoe Mines and Zijin Mining Transfer Additional 15% Interest in Kamoa-Kakula to DRC Government

    “The agreement, which was signed in Kinshasa, DRC, by the Minister of Mines and Minister of Portfolio on November 11, 2016, transfers an additional 15% interest in the Kamoa-Kakula Copper Project to the DRC government, increasing its total stake in the project to 20%. As a result of the transaction, Ivanhoe Mines and Zijin each hold an indirect 39.6% interest in the Kamoa-Kakula Copper Project while Crystal River Global Limited holds an indirect 0.8% interest and the DRC Government holds a direct 20% interest in the Kamoa-Kakula Copper Project.”

    “This is a historically significant event for the people of the Democratic Republic of Congo,” said Mr. Friedland. “We now are united as partners committed to working closely together toward our shared objective of ensuring that the major copper discoveries we have made at Kamoa and Kakula during the past eight years can be predictably, efficiently and expeditiously developed into a world-scale mining venture with a lifespan of multiple generations.”

    Mr. Johansson said the agreement “paves the way to fulfil Kamoa-Kakula’s promise of decades of substantial, long-lasting, economic and social benefits for the Congolese people and the strengthening of the national government’s capacity to support the development of international trade and building of the country.”

    Nov 19, 2016 19:32 AM

    Silver is holding up very well relative to gold and that is a good sign for the new bull market.

    Silver:Gold daily:

      Nov 19, 2016 19:36 AM

      A good time to position adding will be January/February.

        Nov 19, 2016 19:48 AM

        Late December when nobody is paying attention is typically a good time to start watching for unloved Jr companies that got trashed during tax loss selling season.

        I agree with Gwen on her MIF presentation that we should see more volatility hitting the general stock markets and bond markets in late December moving into January before the handing off of the baton…..

        Nov 19, 2016 19:59 AM

        I’m not buying silver but if I were, I’d have to to buy quite a bit right now. I don’t have it in me to hold out for a better deal right here but it’s impressive that you do.

          Nov 19, 2016 19:23 AM

          Matthew – agreed, the 61.8% retracement is a good support level to buy at for sure.

          I’ve been steadily buying & swing trading Silver miners throughout late October and November, and feel a bit over-exposed to Gold/Silver/PGM miners at present, but most of my positions are in free ride status or still in the money at current basis levels, so holding at present levels is still my approach. I do have a few dogs I’ve considered selling for tax loss credits (but the contrarian in me wants to average down in some of them 🙂 )

          If we get a small rally I may lighted the load a bit in my miners, in case we get one last move to the downside into year-end. I could see a brief relief rally in the next week or two for 3-5 days to ease the pressure. If things get really bearish though, I may trim back some positions and wait for a better entry point with that capital.

    Nov 19, 2016 19:42 AM

    I never cease to be amazed by the pure ignorance in economics of commentators and so-called pundits.
    The consensus now appears to be that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in December.
    I do not know if they will or if they won’t.

    But let me ask a question……
    What does the Fed do if it wants to slow inflation?

    Answer: It raises interest rates.

    Now let me ask another question?

    What does the US need to help with solving its pending DEBT BOMB?
    Answer: It needs to get the economy growing (in order to increase taxes) AND to generate inflation to make the debt less relevant.

    So, think about it!

    Is not the conclusion that the Federal Reserve, if they raise interest rates, must be acting more in the interest of banks than the country of the United States ?

    If, therefore, the Fed raises rates, should not the conclusion be that the Fed should be abolished as acting against the interest of the US?

    3 cents.

      Nov 19, 2016 19:59 AM

      Further, allow this ignorant observer to comment further.

      I did not understand why the Fed lower the interest rates as much as they did, rather than criticize Congress into taking fiscal measures to stimulate the economy, but be that as it may. (Of course, I came to the conclusion that Yellen, a Democrat, put political considerations above acting in the best interest of the country.)

      It is a fact that mortgage interest rates in the past few weeks have risen dramatically.
      It is a fact that the bond market currently appears to be close to collapsing.

      Given, that the Fed increasing interest rates would make the situation in these two areas worse, why would it be logical for the Fed to raise rates?

      Would it be logical to conclude that if the Fed actually raises rates it is for political reasons?
      Would it be logical to conclude it would be attempt to wreck the Trump administration?

      Just asking questions….

        Nov 19, 2016 19:18 AM

        The Fed is owned by the bankers. Isn’t the whole point to get us in debt as deeply as possible? Hasn’t the Fed always worked in the interests of the big banks and against the interests of the country? Wasn’t it founded as an extension of the Rothschild interests, a sort of re-colonization of the US?

        I don’t know enough to say exactly what it should be replace with, but that won’t stop me from throwing verbal grenades at the Fed. I guess I’ve got something in common with JTL. THE FED MUST GO…lol

          Nov 19, 2016 19:22 AM

          Yes, the Fed was set up to benefit the banks that own it. Statements to the contrary are for show.

          Nov 19, 2016 19:03 PM

          I always liked this when in the early 2000’s it was projected the national debt would be paid off in a couple of years, The Clinton administration was terrified – what would an economy do without a treasury market?

          What If We Paid Off The Debt? The Secret Government Report

            Nov 19, 2016 19:21 PM

            Don’t let the lefty Republicrats fool you. Being debt free is only a good thing. It’s good for the individual and mandatory for your government if individual liberty means anything to you.

            I recall Doug Casey saying, years ago, that governments can raise money by stealing or by borrowing and that’s it. Doug was wrong. Governments can only steal.

            A government’s ability to borrowed is based on its ability to steal in the future.

            Nov 19, 2016 19:36 PM

            I believe that was at the end of the 90’s, in the middle of the bubble. I was young, and still waking up to just how imbecilic our national dialogue is.

            Projecting surpluses out to the horizon based on a couple of unprecedented bubble years. Absurd. Yet it was taken seriously by the commentariat.

    Nov 19, 2016 19:48 AM

    The Dow-gold ratio is up 14% since 11/4 but looks like it has maybe 2% left to the upside before it reverses.

      Nov 19, 2016 19:59 AM

      Matthew, excellent comment—the ratio is one of my primary charts and one relied on heavily. I couldn’t agree more.

        Nov 19, 2016 19:01 AM

        Thanks Doc, good to know.

      Nov 19, 2016 19:14 AM

      Look at that gap it needs to backfill – yeup a reversal in trend is in the cards.

        Nov 19, 2016 19:18 AM
        Nov 19, 2016 19:24 AM

        That overbought daily chart looks like it will rescue the bears from the improving weekly chart:

          Nov 19, 2016 19:28 AM

          Looks like a flagpole and pennant pattern. It’s definitely going to break one way or another on that chart, but often those are bullish and will break higher one more leg before pulling back. The way these general stock markets are being juiced that wouldn’t surprise me at all. It is the US dollar that will play the roll but breaking out right over 101 has me puzzled. Greenback breakout or breakdown. (i’ve read articles & pundits arguing both sides of that trade all week). Time to stay vigilant.

            Nov 19, 2016 19:31 AM

            roll = role

            Nov 19, 2016 19:41 AM

            sorry – I’m getting hungry.

            Nov 19, 2016 19:49 AM

            But when you look at the RSI, MACD and price extension above the moving averages (on the daily chart), a significant move higher is absolutely not something I would bet on right now. No way.

            Nov 19, 2016 19:32 AM

            Good point. I was just looking at the pattern, but that pattern just means a hard break, similar to a triangle pattern, so if the other indicators look like a turn over is in order, then it will likely be a hard move down.

          Nov 19, 2016 19:27 AM

          I think and hope you’re right, Matthew. I was away from my desk the day of the reversal, and hung onto my volatility trade (UVXY) since it fell so far so fast (17% gap down, about -25% that day). I think I’ll get back to breakeven.

          I was playing around with the chart, and noticed a lot of converging lines. Do you think this means anything, or am I just cherrypicking?

            Nov 19, 2016 19:35 AM

            GH I’ve had a similar journey with UVXY. I sold some right under $20, but held on to the rest and watched it crash. I expected the stocks to sell off on the Trump news and for there to be a bit more panic and volatility over the last 2 weeks. Got caught on the wrong side of the trade now and need an escape hatch. 😉

            Nov 19, 2016 19:38 AM

            I don’t think we’re the only ones in that boat either….

            Nov 19, 2016 19:46 AM

            I think you’re cherry-picking something meaningful. 😉

            Seriously though, that looks pretty darn appealing to me. Considering the Dow/SPY charts, you should have some friendly action very soon.

            Nov 19, 2016 19:38 PM

            Well, at least I’m in good company.

            Thanks, Matthew.

    Nov 19, 2016 19:09 PM

    With the 200/233 week MAs still pointing down, it shouldn’t be surprising that this early bull correction has been so deep. From here, I think the miners might be stuck in a range until the MAs start to flatten out. Then, the next advance should be better than what we had this year.

    GDX weekly:

      Nov 20, 2016 20:43 AM

      It could take quite a while for those MAs to level out, if the price doesn’t go up at all…

        Nov 20, 2016 20:36 AM

        I think we’ll get a significant rally (20-30%) before turning down again and the spike of 2016 probably has not yet impacted the 200/233 wMAs. If we look at the daily 200/233 MAs, we can see that they were only beginning to flatten before the rally took hold.
        So it probably won’t be more than a few months for the next one to start.

    Nov 19, 2016 19:57 PM

    Great show, great comments! Thanks to all!

    Nov 19, 2016 19:31 PM

    Im curious to know what others think. Whats is more significant here re: dollar, techincals, fundamentals, perception or new face in the white house?

      Nov 19, 2016 19:43 PM

      Technicals will help one navigate the moves regardless of the dollar or white house policies; however, the fundamentals play their part in the longer range trends that develop. I like mix of data points but think technical analysis has the biggest impact on entry points, holding duration, and exiting the trade. Just my 2 cents. Cheers!

    Nov 19, 2016 19:27 PM

    Cheers Excelsior. In todays economic landscape, its hard to know which direction the various markets will head next… especially when manipulation is involved.

      Nov 19, 2016 19:34 PM

      Agreed. It’s a wacky world out there. I have just always operated from the standpoint that all markets are manipulated by the larger players, so I use technicals to give me a systematic way to approach things. Sometimes, a fundamental driver is so important to an individual company (like a great drill result, or drill misses, or a permit getting passed or blocked, etc….) that it’s good to keep an eye on the news flow…. no doubt.

      May your investing for the balance of 2016 and moving into 2017 go exceedingly well.

      Ever Upward!

    Nov 19, 2016 19:59 PM

    Gold could get a bit of a bounce next week. I doubt the USD is going up much more. The insights of the KER team and all of the comments regarding mining stocks are stellar! Thanks for all of the great info, everyone!
    My research says gold and miners are heading south until late summer or early fall of 17. I’m looking at other stuff besides PMs, for now anway.
    A commodity and EM boom is real close.

      Nov 20, 2016 20:55 AM

      Thanks Chartster. It sounds like your outlook aligns with our Doc Postma on the late summer/fall of 2017 for things to pick up in the PMs.

      As for Emerging Markets, I had posted an article on Friday that was very intriguing and I wanted to get your thoughts on it. Of course, their premise was that the rising dollar would pressure the EMs, but it sounds like you expect the dollar rally to reverse soon. Still I’d like to get your thoughts on this article:


      The Emerging Markets’ Dollar Problem
      By Lisa Abramowicz

        Nov 20, 2016 20:55 AM

        Here’s an excerpt from that article above:

        “In this case, the debt of developing economies is positioned uniquely for pain, which will most likely intensify in coming weeks. While bonds globally are posting some of the biggest losses on record, debt of U.S., Germany, Japan and other large economies will eventually have natural buyers that can swoop in and support values. That’s already happened to some extent with riskier corporate debt in the U.S.

        But that’s less of the case for emerging markets, which investors flooded into during years of searching for higher yields. Companies in these more-vulnerable economies have $340 billion of debt coming due through 2018, and they are going to have a hard time paying all that back if investors keep withdrawing their cash.

        The explanation behind the exodus from something that was the darling of many money managers just months ago is twofold.

        After the election of Donald Trump as the next U.S. president, many expect his infrastructure spending programs and trade policies to lead to higher consumer prices in the world’s biggest economy. Bonds tend to do poorly when inflation accelerates, especially because such an environment would prompt the Fed to raise benchmark interest rates faster than many expect.

        That would bad for all types of debt but particularly for notes in emerging markets. That’s because investors will migrate back to higher-rated bonds in developed economies instead of those in less-proven nations.

        Also, more U.S. growth typically means a stronger dollar, which is a significant problem for emerging-market nonbank borrowers, which have accumulated more than $3 trillion in dollar-denominated debt, according to Bank for International Settlements data. The higher the dollar rises, the more expensive it becomes to pay back the debt….”

          Nov 20, 2016 20:56 AM

          I think it depends on if we’re talking the Asian Emerging Markets or West African Emerging markets that are booming, versus the stagnating South American, Middle Eastern, and North & South African markets.

          Overall, the point I got was that many Emerging Markets that can not support their debt loads are in deep doo-doo.

            Nov 20, 2016 20:32 AM

            I think EMs will break out soon as the dollar breaks down. That looks to be pretty soon. There are some gaps that are close to getting filled on some EM charts. Once they fill, the worm might turn. The dollar breaking 100.72 gives me dain bramage. 🤔 Blowoff top??

            I saw an article from Bloomberg a few weeks ago. It was a statement from the BIS. They said that there was a discrepancy regarding emerging market debt. And to expect exchange rates to get very volatile soon.
            What I got from that is, the dollar could get hit, and some EM currencies could rally. The BIS and IMF usually tell you “what’s” going to happen, but they never say “when”. But the charts look pretty close.

            The US and Europe markets are looking like they are entering the debt bubble. It’s been coming for a while and is inevitable. There’s nothing Trump can do about that. He’s going to inherit a major crash. Now the brainwashed snowflakes can blame derivatives on Trump. LOL

            Nov 20, 2016 20:02 AM

            If the dollar does top and head down, then yes, I agree with you that it will benefit Emerging Markets and the commodity complex as overall.

            My comment was based around all those that think that now that the US Dollar has broken above 101 to it 14 year highs, that it may keep going for a while, (especially in leu of a Dec Fed rate hike). In that environment, would it punish Emerging Markets even further?

            Nov 20, 2016 20:13 AM

            If I remember correctly, in the early 2000s when the fed raised rates, the EMs rallied.

            Nov 20, 2016 20:20 AM

            Interesting. We just hear quite often that with the rising dollar it is hurting EM economies due to the inflation they experience for the average consumer.

            Are there any emerging markets areas or countries that you prefer over others?

            Nov 21, 2016 21:49 AM

            I like many of the smaller Asia countries. Malaysia, Vietnam, Indonesia and others. The Middle East and Africa will be good soon. But by the time they get good mining stocks will be good again. Telecom will be good in those areas, but I have no picks for that, at this time anyway.

            Nov 21, 2016 21:39 PM

            Thanks Chartster. Interesting point on the telecom stocks in emerging markets. I still feel most comfortable with an ETF for a particular country, or a basket of countries, but I’m looking at Asia and Africa as well. There are so many (as we’ve discussed before) that I’m trying to find some where I really like the internal holdings/weightings.

    Nov 19, 2016 19:35 PM

    At this stage im only a physical holder of pms and nothin else. Pms stocks, mining stocks and any other stocks are just not my thing at this stage. Certainly no judgement towards those who are in these sectors. Im just not overly clued up in these areas. I like to do my due dilligence before diving in. These chat forums within the Korelin economics website are informative. The various walks of life on this site give a wide range of views that whilst may not please everyone (myself included) they are interesting. Keep it coming guys.

    Nov 20, 2016 20:20 AM

    I see Mitt Romney is a strong candidate to be secretary of state under the apparent Trump administration. Yet only months before he ridiculed and slandered Trump publicly during the presidential campaign. It just shows you can only take what these people say with proverbial grain of salt. Here in Aus they say you know a politician is lying when his mouth moves. They are all just a bunch of puppets peddling answers and claims that the dumbed down masses want to hear… And we as a society continue to eat it up in spite of their proven lies. We are quick to pour ridicule and discontent on politicians yet we openly contribute to the empty promises, lies and deception they legislate against the average joe…

    Nov 20, 2016 20:31 AM

    Knowledge, tech exports key to climate change mitigation, not policy: Bonterra CEO

    “Commodities looks at why one oil-and-gas CEO says Canada should be exporting knowledge and technology to help other nations combat climate change, rather than introducing regulations that put Canadian energy producers at a disadvantage. George Fink, CEO of Bonterra Energy, explains.”

      Nov 20, 2016 20:33 AM

      Canada should focus on energy competitiveness, not carbon taxes: Birchcliff CEO

      “One Calgary oil -and-gas CEO says that the environment is important but that the government must also offer industry incentives to get oil-and-gas professionals in the province back to work. Jeffery Tonken, president and CEO of Birchcliff Energy, explains.”

        Nov 20, 2016 20:35 AM

        Canada should focus on ‘own backyard’ rather than Keystone XL in U.S., Doer says
        Arturo Chang , Staff

        While the focus of Canada’s energy policy discussions may have shifted southward after Donald Trump’s U.S. election win, the No. 1 priority should be approving domestic pipeline projects, says Gary Doer, former Canadian ambassador to the U.S.

        Doer, who served as ambassador from late 2009 until last March, told BNN in an interview that he’s “free at last” to say it’s hard to make the case for projects like Keystone XL if pipelines are getting rejected in Canada.

        “So you come and say, ‘We want Keystone voted for’ and [the Americans] say, ‘What about your own backyard? How are you doing?’ and ‘you’re not approving anything in Canada,'” Doer said.

        U.S. President-elect Trump has said he’ll revive the review process for the Keystone XL during his first 100 days in office. The proposed extension to TransCanada’s pipeline project has been entangled in legal and regulatory hurdles in the U.S., and was rejected by the Obama administration in November 2015 after seven years of review.

        Doer said the Canadian government and the provinces should prioritize national projects to help ease future negotiations.

        “We’ve got to get pipelines built in our country,” he said. “We can’t keep asking in the States when we are not willing to do it in Canada.”

        Trump has also said he’ll walk away from international agreements to cut greenhouse emissions, which some critics say could make Canadian companies less competitive if Prime Minister Justin Trudeau sticks to his carbon pricing plan.
        But Doer said the government shouldn’t be afraid to have its own climate policy.

        “You’ve always got to keep an eye on your competitors, but Canadians also want to have cleaner air and cleaner water so I think we should get on with it, but not completely put our industries out of business,” Doer said.

    Nov 20, 2016 20:24 AM

    The thread got so long I couldnt tell where this should go so Im just putting it here.

    I used to play cards with a guy called “wolf” I only ever knew 1 guy called wolf, I wonder if this is you.

    Anyway, pot companies are entirely differant than mining.
    There is no cow pasture, (there is with mushrooms but not pot)

    Anyway, as far as I know, and I may not know them all, every Canadian grower is growing, expanding and selling 100% of their product.

    Their customer base is jumping by leaps and bounds
    (There are others that have applied for licenses but that takes around 18 months, then there is building etc, so more growers are a ways away.)

    Customer base now is medical, the % of medical sales is going to be almost insignificant when it is legalized and distributed to the public at large.

    There is no way the # of companies can supply the demand without expansion.

    Pot is not gold that has a 70 year supply above ground, pot sells 100% of whats grown.

    Mining companies promote cow pasture, Pot companies offer sativa.