Rick Ackerman’s Technical Forecasts – Wed 14 Dec, 2016

Does the second rate hike by the Fed in a decade even matter?

With Rick this morning we discuss the environment around the second rate hike by the Fed since the last financial collapse. We also look outside the US to assess if other central banks will be following the Fed in raising and they followed on the way down.

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Featuring:
Rick AckermanAl KorelinCory Fleck
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Comments:
  1. On December 14, 2016 at 8:33 am,
    CFS says:

    one-quarter percent times 20 trillion dollars equals 50 billion dollars.
    there are about 100 million income tax payers,
    50 billion dollars divided by 100 million tax payers means EACH TAXPAYER WILL THEORETICALLY OWE $500 dollars more per year forever.

    • On December 14, 2016 at 8:43 am,
      CFS says:

      An interest rate rise will be used to cool an over-heating economy, because ……………. is over-heating.
      Please fill in the blank, because old stupid me cannot.

      • On December 14, 2016 at 8:46 am,
        CFS says:

        Maybe housing could be described as over-heating.
        But that is mostly occurring in certain locations, where building and zoning laws have crippled the supply.

        • On December 14, 2016 at 8:51 am,
          CFS says:

          The government is trying to get inflation up, to inflate its way out of the debt problem.

          Can anyone explain how a quarter of a percent interest rate rise can increase the velocity of money?
          Can anyone explain how a quarter percent interest rate rise can increase demand of goods, to drive up prices?

    • On December 14, 2016 at 10:45 am,
      Paul L. says:

      The interest payments can just be printed for free.

  2. On December 14, 2016 at 8:37 am,
    wolfster says:

    Bit jumbled at times but good read on Ivanhoe.
    http://thomcalandra.com/two-prong-econo-for-congo-copper-deposit/

    • On December 14, 2016 at 3:45 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Nice. Thanks for the Calandra post.

  3. On December 14, 2016 at 8:51 am,
    Dan, calgary says:

    AZ Mining having a trading halt today.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AZ.TO

    • On December 14, 2016 at 8:53 am,
      CFS says:

      And I bet an insider dumped a load of AZ mining prior to the halt!

      • On December 14, 2016 at 9:12 am,
        Dan, calgary says:

        Looks like it. Good volume last couple trading days.

        • On December 14, 2016 at 9:31 am,
          wolfster says:

          They had an article about them that was retracted and are also being added to s&p mining index……

          • On December 14, 2016 at 1:13 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Yep – that hit article focused on there being too much Manganese in their ore, which turned out to be wrong (although they do have higher amounts than some Zinc companies). The company has since come out and reiterated that many smelters are happy to accept and process their concentrates and that the article was way off base.

            It has been a firestorm of opinions but the news piece was terribly one-sided, and the author called them a “mini Bre-X”. That is way over the top, investors were outraged, and they retracted the article.

            Here’s the scuttlebutt from CEO on Arizona Mining (you have to scan back up to the “older comments” to see some of the better responses to the article)

            https://ceo.ca/az

  4. On December 14, 2016 at 8:56 am,
    Paul L. says:

    Cost of hedging against market drops has dropped to the lowest in 2 years as per Bloomberg. Bullish sign.

  5. On December 14, 2016 at 9:04 am,
    Silverdollar says:

    Rick mentioned his thoughts on happenings if the FED didn’t tighten. What about the remote possibility of them raising slightly more than a quarter point? Perhaps to .30 or .35? Remote chance, but what if…………..? Might hit the markets hard would be my guess.

  6. On December 14, 2016 at 9:53 am,
    Pete says:

    Minaurum Samples 1750g/t Silver over 1.2m at La Quintera

    http://www.baystreet.ca/viewarticle.aspx?id=451054

  7. On December 14, 2016 at 10:41 am,
    Matthew says:

    The loonie went up almost 4% in a month and has filled the Oct. 20 gap, and now it is dropping to fill the Dec. 12 gap.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24CDW&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=13&id=p98326051958&a=493668357

  8. On December 14, 2016 at 11:59 am,
    DarkPurpleHaze says:

    Yes, it matters. Why wouldn’t it?
    If the Fed was “trapped”, like many online bloggers once thought, and they didn’t raise rates then we’d hear…”See! They’re trapped and out of ammo!”

    But when they do raise rates…twice now in the last 12 months…we hear yawns and questions like Rick poses.

    The people who said rates can never go up (not sure if Rick himself ever declared that) or it’ll cause the mother of all collapses and the dollar and bond market WILL COLLAPSE etc. were really wrong up to this point.

    Time will tell how attempts at rate normalization and a robust dollar will impact the domestic economy but it appears imho it’ll greatly effect other world economies/markets and currencies more than the U.S.

    • On December 14, 2016 at 12:21 pm,
      Matthew says:

      A few of those guys might have been referring to real rates. They must stay negative regardless of the nominal rate.

      The Fed won’t be out of ammo until the people reject their currency en masse.

  9. On December 14, 2016 at 12:36 pm,
    irishtony says:

    So they did raise rates after all…..Well my call was wrong after all.
    Damn Putin made them do it, it was all his fault.

  10. On December 14, 2016 at 1:04 pm,
    James the lesser says:

    On December 5, 2016 at 10:34 am,
    Matthew says:
    The buck is going down like I recently said it would. The question is whether or not this is an important reversal. Based on the confidence level of bulls like Rick Ackerman, it probably is.

    Whe you made that comment the $ index was in the 99 area.
    Now it is over 102

    WRONG again !

    • On December 14, 2016 at 6:10 pm,
      Matthew says:

      That comment was made after it had pulled back from 101.97.

      My portfolio is up substantially since then. Is yours?

  11. On December 14, 2016 at 1:21 pm,
    Paul L. says:

    I have been saying GDX is going to $19 since people were celebrating when it was in the 30’s. Closed 19.89 and the drop is not over yet.

    • On December 14, 2016 at 6:08 pm,
      Matthew says:

      Good job, Paul. It does look like there could be another 7 or 8% to the downside.

  12. On December 14, 2016 at 2:45 pm,
    Ozibatla says:

    Lets see if there will be some follow through selling in the next 24 hours in the pms markets. $1100 handle is on shaky ground if so.

    Ohh dear, all the good work done earlier in the year is amounting to bugger all.

  13. On December 15, 2016 at 2:41 am,
    Ozibatla says:

    And here comes the follow through selling i mentioned. $1130 about to go. Where does it end? Thats over $200 lost now for gold since the election. The yearly gain now at a paltry 8%. Another frustrating year folks. One positive I suppose is that bearish sentiment seems at an all time high and perhaps and early indicator of a bottom? The cynic in me suggests otherwise.

    • On December 15, 2016 at 5:12 am,
      spanky says:

      The COTs certainly don’t reflect that yet. The yen is what is driving this, and as I said before there is no floor on yen based on their recent policy stance. The Fed, BoJ and ECB have targets in mind before they flip, but unfortunately we are not privy.

      As I have said, by getting the BOJ to bend over for them, the Fed can have its cake and eat it too. Lower commodities, higher stocks. That has been the trend since 2011. As soon as bond yields get too high, the fed will allow a 3-5% correction in stocks to crash bond yields. They can keep this going for a long long time so long as the global CBs coordinate policy.