Rick Ackerman’s Technical Forecasts – Mon 19 Dec, 2016

A look forward to 2017 trends

We kick off today with Rick Ackerman and comments on his outlook for 2017. In 2016 we saw a number of trend changes including bonds, metals and even the markets. Will all the recent optimism turn out to be warranted?

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Featuring:
Rick AckermanCory FleckAl Korelin
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Comments:
  1. On December 19, 2016 at 9:42 am,
    CFS says:

    But if you don’t monetize the pensions, how do you handle the civil unrest?

  2. On December 19, 2016 at 9:45 am,
    CFS says:

    Historically countries that run into a debt bomb, have always chosen to monetize.

    High inflation has always considered as more politically acceptable than cancellation of pensions

    • On December 19, 2016 at 10:49 am,
      Robert Moriarty says:

      CFS:

      If you do monetize the debt bomb, how do you handle the civil unrest? It’s coming one way or another. The tax eaters have been living high on the hog for the last 50 years and the piper is playing.

      • On December 19, 2016 at 11:15 am,
        GH says:

        +1!

      • On December 19, 2016 at 11:24 am,
        CFS says:

        But monetizing the debt bomb, i.e. kicking the can down the road….

        May not be the best thing for the country in the long run, but spreads the effect out over time and allows for a potential tightening of the belt to eliminate collapse.
        I believe that was what Cameron was trying to do in England, but he simply was not a atrong enough person to continue. He just decided to retire and take the easy way out for himself.
        However, a strong enough character with conviction, might succeed.
        I do not know if Trump has the correct moral compass, however.

        • On December 19, 2016 at 12:51 pm,
          GH says:

          I agree with your argument about allowing time for adjustment.

          But I think this boils down to the question we’ve been facing for years–hard landing, or soft? It’s questionable whether there will be a choice in the matter.

  3. On December 19, 2016 at 9:47 am,
    b says:

    I forget how many times the U.S. has defaulted, been awhile since I looked at it.
    Anyway, none of those defaults caused the nation to collapse.

    • On December 19, 2016 at 10:05 am,
      CFS says:

      The US has never defaulted during this modern socialized era.

      Historically, people used to save for retirement or keep on sorking till death, but with governments forcing the populace into social security, the majority no longer save for retirement.

      • On December 20, 2016 at 7:30 am,
        b says:

        Your right cfs, people were more agrarian too.

  4. On December 19, 2016 at 9:53 am,
    OOTB Jerry says:

    Most of the pensions are to gov’t workers, I believe, so a default will not be a big deal.

  5. On December 19, 2016 at 9:54 am,
    Silverdollar says:

    Market Watch Bulletin: Russian Ambassador to Turkey dead, after being shot in Ankara!

  6. On December 19, 2016 at 10:15 am,
    James the Lesser says:

    Rick,

    So you don’t want to go out on a limb and make a few predictions for 2017?

    You say most people who do are wrong 105% of the time.

    It is very educational and a good teachable moment if you all go back to the archives on this site, last December and January, and read the comments.

    You will discover how wrong most people are.

    it will be very enlightening.

    I just spend 20 minutes reading some of the commentary around this time last year,
    most of it is laughable

    I’m not going to mention any names but some people got it so wrong.

    the bottom line is no one has any clue what is going to happen

    • On December 19, 2016 at 10:52 am,
      Robert Moriarty says:

      JTL:

      You can be humorous at times. You had it dead wrong, a handful had it dead right and you think that because you have no clue that it means no one else does.

      I needed a good laugh. Well, write this down and take it to the bank. We are starting a tradable low in gold at the very least.

      • On December 19, 2016 at 11:24 am,
        GH says:

        Every court needs a jester 😜😜😜

  7. On December 19, 2016 at 10:21 am,
    James the Lesser says:

    Al,

    Now that you are on record for saying gold will not be good for a long long time what is going to be the theme of this blog?

    after all most people stumbled upon this blog because they were interested or bullish on precious metals and or commodities.

    they found this site in their travels and gravitated to it because of that.

    I’m sure you also started because you felt commodities, gold and silver, the resource sector was the place to be, that is was in a bullish environment.

    I don’t think there can be any doubt the site started on the bull side.

    now that gold and silver have been crushed, they have been in long term bear markets, the commodity super cycle is done, what is the them of this site?

    every blog has a them

    zero hedge is always keep it negative
    kwn is hyperbole and propaganda sells
    alex jones is conspiracy theory make big bucks

    so what is the new theme for the ke report?

    is it gold and silver are not the place to be for a long long time, those were basically your words when you said you didn’t see gold being good for a long time.

    if you cant think of a theme may I suggest one then…the wild west…anything goes!

    • On December 19, 2016 at 11:03 am,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      Owl is a good contrarian indicator….. 🙂

  8. On December 19, 2016 at 10:47 am,
    spanky says:

    gld daily stochastics oversold for 5.5 weeks now. That has never happened before,
    Not even during 2012-13. GLd has literally flatlined, trading no different than yen.

    • On December 19, 2016 at 10:59 am,
      Matthew says:

      It won’t last much longer, Spanky – until the end of the year, at most.

      • On December 19, 2016 at 11:10 am,
        spanky says:

        My other worry is that flatlining like that portends continued lower lows, just like yen between ’12-15. So yes, how much longer can they stay oversold before a relief rally, but even after such a rally, it’s probably headed lower. Plus if we don’t rally significantly to close out December, the monthly chart is going to look hideous. We will be so far away from the 20 month MA that the path of least resistance will be towards the lower bollonger band and a new lower low. Thereafter, the 200 month MA becomes a target. Presumably we will get some sort of bounce if we hit the lower BB.

  9. On December 19, 2016 at 10:47 am,
    FranSix says:

    We don’t know for certain yet whether hyperinflation will be the outcome, since the causes may vary. A guaranteed income does not manifestly cause hyperinflation, though it would be a way to devalue the currency. There are countries with guaranteed income and no hyperinflation. In fact, you may AVOID hyperinflation by guaranteeing income. What manifestly causes hyperinflation is the desperate need for immediately available currency and a central bank with no stops on printing money.

    Deflation(which is now an imaginary outcome) was codswallopped by historic highs in the stock market and that QE will sideline any deflationist argument. The only way out woukd be a liquidity trap that consignes investment returns to the meagre benchmark rate until government debt is reduced to the point the economy can expand.

  10. On December 19, 2016 at 10:57 am,
    james says:

    Turkey Boys ! You’re Fake Dollar will no save you ! God is ANGRY ! You really think Killing millions off muslims will go fade away . Sade Sade ! Diss is only the ( START ) !

    • On December 19, 2016 at 11:05 am,
      james says:

      Don’t sell you’re GOLD !

      • On December 19, 2016 at 11:19 am,
        james says:

        The Western world will join Russia and start the hunting all people how don’t love the NEW WORLD ORDER ! The Prison is near ready !

  11. On December 19, 2016 at 12:30 pm,
    James the lesser says:

    James,

    Which God are you talking about?

    • On December 19, 2016 at 12:46 pm,
      james says:

      GOD is GAD of ALL HUMANS no only the GOD me and you think !

      • On December 19, 2016 at 1:26 pm,
        james says:
        • On December 20, 2016 at 2:20 am,
          Marty says:

          Would the bombing destruction of the Middle East send all Americans to Hell or just those who support and profit from the slaughter?

  12. On December 19, 2016 at 12:33 pm,
    James the lesser says:

    RM, WHEN YOU HAVE THE GUTS AND THE BALLS TO MAKE A REAL FORECAST THE WE CAN HAVE CONVERSATION.

    UNTIL THEN GO BACK TO YOUR SWAMP.

    THE AIR UP HERE IS STARTING TO SMELL

  13. On December 19, 2016 at 12:38 pm,
    James the lesser says:

    RM,

    Explain to me how I had it dead wrong?

    Do you even know what you are talking about?

    You have no clue.

    Again explain to me how precisely I had it “dead wrong”

    • On December 19, 2016 at 3:32 pm,
      Robert Moriarty says:

      JTL:

      You still think gold is lower today than a year ago. You have life in a blender.

  14. On December 19, 2016 at 12:50 pm,
    Paul L. says:

    Oil has stopped going up and looks like it will head down and maybe drag the whole market down. I took profits on all my holdings. Dow is having trouble holding above 19,900.

  15. On December 19, 2016 at 3:45 pm,
    James the Lesser says:

    I think gold is lower today than a year ago??

    What the hell are you talking about?

    Do you even know?

    I never said gold is lower today than a year ago.

    either you twist my words or your too much of a jerk to understand what I say

    crawl back in your swamp

  16. On December 19, 2016 at 3:49 pm,
    James the Lesser says:

    Matthew, you really think that silver chart looks good?