Daily Market Wrap – Tue 20 Dec, 2016

The long-term yield outlook could be the story for 2017

In today’s markets wrap I wanted to focus mostly on the 10 year treasury yield. The trend change that was experienced half way through this year has now moved the 10 year yield up and past the long-term downtrend line. While yields should take a break in the next month of two if in 2017 we continue to see yields slowly rise this will be the most significant story for the financial sector.

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Here is the Long-term chart showing the down-trend line now broken.

10-year-yield-monthly-long-term-trend-line


Featuring:
Cory FleckAl Korelin
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Comments:
  1. On December 20, 2016 at 2:25 pm,
    Markedtofuture says:

    Rudy G. spilling the beans on PG & 9/11 ?

    http://archive.is/IDBh5

    • On December 20, 2016 at 2:32 pm,
      Bob UK says:

      I assume his twitter account got hacked.

    • On December 20, 2016 at 3:32 pm,
      GH says:

      He would know. Could he really be spilling his guts?

      The great David McGowan wrote a 60-page expose on pedophilia in the US called ‘The Pedophocracy’. Giuliani is mentioned in this document.

      http://www.whale.to/b/pedophocracy.html#The_Pedophocracy,_Part_I:__From_Brussels_…__

      • On December 20, 2016 at 4:25 pm,
        GH says:

        I seriously doubt this is true, much as I would like it to be.

      • On December 20, 2016 at 6:56 pm,
        Matthew says:

        *The late great…

    • On December 20, 2016 at 5:19 pm,
      John K says:

      Markedtofuture:
      Please enlighten us as to what this has to do with treasury yields.

    • On December 20, 2016 at 6:06 pm,
      Chartster says:

      Markedtofuture,
      Thanks for that! Wow, it looks like the truth is really starting to come out!

      • On December 20, 2016 at 6:53 pm,
        Markedtofuture says:

        John K… nothing about the market monoply numbers…it’s the market wrap.

        Chartster… it was an account that was suspended. Looks like the former Georgia house member Cynthia Ann McKinney picked it up and ran with it. She is quite the activist.

        McKinney was re-elected to the House in November 2004, following her successor’s run for Senate. In Congress, she advocated unsealing records pertaining to the CIA’s role in the assassination of Martin Luther King Jr. and the murder of Tupac Shakur. She continued to criticize the Bush Administration over the 9/11 attacks. She supported anti-war legislation and introduced articles of impeachment against President Bush, Vice President Dick Cheney, and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice.

        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cynthia_McKinney

        • On December 20, 2016 at 7:09 pm,
          Chartster says:

          Years ago I thought Cynthia was a quack. As it turns out, she was right.

          The Rudy Twitter link looks like he saved it on a server, even though his account was suspended ( which is also, telling )

        • On December 20, 2016 at 7:14 pm,
          John K says:

          Markedtofuture:
          I posted before the election that Rudy could be a problem for President elect Trump. Time to buckle up,the ride is about to get rough.

          • On December 20, 2016 at 7:35 pm,
            Markedtofuture says:

            Trump needs to get a hold on the crap going on in Chicago. The criminals are running folks out of there to other states.

            US Population Grows At Slowest Pace Since The Great Depression; Residents Flee Illinois Again

            According to data released by the US Census, in 2016 the U.S. population grew at the lowest rate since the Great Depression, while the state of New York shrank for the first time in a decade. The biggest loser, again, was Illinois which shrank for a third consecutive year, losing 38,000 people, mostly from the Chicago area.

            http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-12-20/us-population-grows-slowest-pace-great-depression-residents-flee-illinois-again

  2. On December 20, 2016 at 2:43 pm,
    Markedtofuture says:

    It’s going around…https://twitter.com/cynthiamckinney

    • On December 21, 2016 at 6:37 am,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      interesting………thanks for the post…

      • On December 21, 2016 at 6:39 am,
        OOTB Jerry says:

        SGT REPORT will most likely pick this story up…….since they have been detwittered……

        • On December 21, 2016 at 6:41 am,
          OOTB Jerry says:

          Time is short for many ………..

    • On December 21, 2016 at 7:27 am,
      GH says:

      Great news, if it’s true. I’m still betting it’s a hoax, though…

  3. On December 20, 2016 at 4:02 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    Picked up some more $AXU this morning that swung to in the money by the afternoon.

    The Angry Geo was picking on Alexco today and some of his critique seemed to paint a picture that was completely off-base.

    There is absolutely no doubt that the Bellekeno, Lucky Queen, Flame & Moth, and now Bermingham deposits that (AXR) (AXU) Alexco have at Keno Hill are all extremely high grade, and all of those deposits are close to the mill. They have even more deposits and future targets to work there, so it is really is turning into a District Scale resource, and will be economical if they can figure out a solution to the $SLW streaming arrangement. #Silver #Zinc #Lead #Development

    Here is a map of the different deposits on Alexco’s property:

    http://www.alexcoresource.com/s/keno_hill.asp?ReportID=515321

    • On December 20, 2016 at 4:03 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Once Silver starts heading back up again towards $20, the share-price of Alexco will be many multiples higher.

      Check out this video with the CEO from November for a bit more info based on the reality of what Alexco has planned. They discuss their plan to go back into production in 2017, and how the different deposits play into it.

      Alexco Resource: Resuming Production Decision in Q4 2016 for 3m Oz Silver per Year
      Video Interview with President & CEO Clynton Nauman

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L2ZShoygJ_k

    • On December 20, 2016 at 5:34 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Golden Queen announces commercial production at Soledad Mountain Project
      Dec. 19, 2016 /CNW/ – Golden Queen Mining Co. Ltd. (TSX:GQM; OTCQX:GQMNF)

      http://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/golden-queen-announces-commercial-production-at-soledad-mountain-project-607439706.html

    • On December 20, 2016 at 5:59 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      The Northern Miner podcast – episode 41:
      Interstellar Gold and Arizona Mining ft. JOE MAXUMDAR

      MATTHEW KEEVIL DECEMBER 20, 2016

      “We’re joined this week by Exploration Insights’ analyst Joe Mazumdar to talk about Arizona Mining‘s (TSX: AZ; US-OTC: WLDVF) ongoing battle with the Global Mining Observer over manganese concerns?! Matt and Joe also dig into investing strategies for the new year in terms of downside protection and gold leverage. Meanwhile, Lesley checks in with an interstellar version of the Geology corner that explores the relationship between stars and the formation of gold. Supernova!”

      http://www.northernminer.com/news/northern-miner-podcast-episode-41-interstellar-gold-arizona-mining-ft-joe-mazumdar/1003781851/

      • On December 20, 2016 at 6:46 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        Big thanks to CFS for pointing out this interview hosted by Jay Taylor, with Dan Oliver, Michael Oliver, Gwen Preston, and Eric Coffin. Very interesting interview!
        ______________________________________________________________________________

        Is Trump Destined to Mirror the Hoover Depression?
        December 20, 2016 – Hosted by #JayTaylor

        Episode Description

        ” #DanOliver #MichaelOliver #GwenPreston and #EricCoffin return. Drawing from Roman history, Dan was one of the few financial analysts who predicted a Trump victory. But be careful what you wish for, Mr. Trump, because in many ways, you are inheriting a mess similar but exponentially greater than that inherited by President Hoover. Can Trump avoid the same outcome? Dan will opine. Michael will provide his usual momentum and structural insights into the markets while Gwen and Eric share the microphone to tell us about some of the exciting Gold and Silver mining companies that will be exhibiting at (MIF) Metals Investor Forum in Vancouver on January 20th and 21st. We will also ask Gwen and Eric for their views on the state of the gold markets and if there are any other metals markets they think look attractive as we enter 2017.”

        https://www.voiceamerica.com/episode/96358/is-trump-destined-to-mirror-the-hoover-depression

    • On December 21, 2016 at 6:48 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Jaguar Announces Gold Production Increase in 2017 and Provides Update on Growth Exploration Pipeline Initiative
      December 21, 2016

      “Jaguar Mining Inc. (TSX: JAG) is pleased to announce its consolidated annual guidance for 2017 and to provide an update on its Growth Exploration Pipeline Initiative, announced on October 27, 2016.”

      *2017 Guidance

      – Gold production of 100,000 – 110,000 ounces, up approximately 10% compared to 2016 guidance
      – Cash operating costs per ounce sold (“COC”) of $720 – $755
      – All-in sustaining costs per ounce sold (“AISC”) of $900 – $1,000
      – Total development includes primary of 4,700 – 5,500 metres, Secondary of 5,600 – 6,550 metres
      – Definition and infill drilling totalling 26,000 – 31,000 metres
      – Growth exploration investment (core operating assets) of $7.5 – $8.0 million

      *Exploration Update

      – Commenced underground development of exploration drives in order to launch the planned deep drilling programs from the hanging wall at both Pilar and Turmalina to test the down-plunge extension of current inferred resources.
      – Initiated exploration drilling at the the Pacheca and Cubas targets located in and around Pilar.”

      http://www.jaguarmining.com/s/NewsReleases.asp?ReportID=774063&_Type=News-Releases&_Title=Jaguar-Announces-Gold-Production-Increase-in-2017-and-Provides-Update-on-Gr

  4. On December 20, 2016 at 4:15 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    A Breakout Trade in TSLA and an Encouraging Day For The Gold Miners

    by @Goldfinger on December 20, 2016

    https://www.ceo.ca/@goldfinger/a-breakout-trade-in-tsla-and-an-encouraging-day-for-the-gold-miners

    • On December 20, 2016 at 4:18 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Silverdollar posted this on here yesterday but it seemed interesting enough to repost.

      Not a Gold Bull in Sight

      By Bob Loukas – Tuesday, 20 December 2016

      http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1482259370.php

      • On December 20, 2016 at 4:23 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        Retest of $1120s coming today – Posted by DaveintheUK – Goldtent TA
        December 20, 2016

        https://goldtadise.com/?p=390355

        • On December 21, 2016 at 8:28 am,
          CFS says:

          Well, he got that wrong!

          • On December 21, 2016 at 12:55 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            It was pretty close to that Fork support on the chart where Gold did hit $1125 and was very close to it where it bounce. We also aren’t out of the wood completely yet hovering around $1130, so overall pretty forkin’ good…..

  5. On December 20, 2016 at 4:26 pm,
    GH says:

    I bought JNUG today at 4.24. I think it’s at least good for a tradeable bounce.

  6. On December 20, 2016 at 5:31 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    David Cates: The Uranium Market is Getting Tight, and There Isn’t Enough Production

    Palisade Radio – Dec 20, 2016

    “David Cates president and CEO of two companies- Uranium Participation Corporation and Denison Mines, joins us to discuss the Uranium market. He says the Uranium spot price has moved upwards in the last week and that uranium stocks have yet to price this move in. In recent months a lack of liquidity and a thinly traded market has limited price discovery, however this has improved recently as more utilities have been buying.

    Over the next few years he expects more utilities to enter the market and good returns in the 2-4 year range as demand increases and supply declines. The current price is not reflective of actual production costs in his opinion. David thinks the spot price should move towards the $40 level and possibly $60 or higher. Very few projects are in the global pipeline to fulfill the looming supply demand gap.

    David says it’s difficult to judge the market supply dynamics and in the grand scheme the market is currently oversupplied, although secondary supplies are being unloaded. This is the cause of the general softness in the market. Some are concerned that China has significant inventory, however he anticipates that this stockpile will look reasonable once more of their reactor builds come online.

    David also discusses a Canadian-focused company, and why he believes the Athabasca basin is the best jurisdiction in the world to be a uranium developer. He says they are set to be the next major uranium producer in this region.”

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xONxLkCaLH0

    • On December 20, 2016 at 6:21 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      ** This is a great article from Brian on Uranium miners with many links and tables. He has been releasing some great research recently.

      _____________________________________________________________________________

      North American Uranium Producers

      Junior Stock Review – Brian Leni

      http://www.juniorstockreview.com/2016/12/20/north-american-uranium-producers/

      • On December 21, 2016 at 7:03 am,
        Excelsior says:

        The Next Bull Market Move Interview –

        Collin Kettell, CEO & Partner, Palisade Global Investments Ltd

        by @bullmarketmove on December 21, 2016

        “It is with great pleasure that we welcome back Collin Kettell to The Next Bull Market Move. Collin is one of the rising stars within the resource investment space and i was lucky enough to speak to him just before the Xmas holiday’s. We talked about Uranium, Gold, and the investment classic ‘Security Analysis’.”

        https://www.ceo.ca/@bullmarketmove/the-next-bull-market-move-interview-collin-kettell-ceo-partnerpalisade-global-investments-ltd

  7. On December 20, 2016 at 5:56 pm,
    John K says:

    July 2016 Japan’s Abe announced a 28 trillion yen stimulus plan.This coincided with turn in Treasury yields,Gold and the USD/JPY pair.I have a sneaking suspicion someone reprogrammed the algo.

  8. On December 20, 2016 at 6:22 pm,
    Chartster says:

    VIXY is looking pretty good… Not far from a buy.

    • On December 20, 2016 at 7:31 pm,
      John K says:

      Nice call Chartster. Technically would would have to see to pull the trigger?

      • On December 20, 2016 at 8:47 pm,
        Chartster says:

        Technically a cross on MACD, PMO, Slow STO and TSI.

  9. On December 20, 2016 at 8:25 pm,
    Chartster says:

    This week or next should be time to bite, IMO.

    • On December 21, 2016 at 5:51 am,
      John K says:

      Thanks Chartster, keep us posted.

      • On December 21, 2016 at 7:26 am,
        GH says:

        Ditto

  10. On December 21, 2016 at 8:35 am,
    Matthew says:

    Here’s a chart I posted a month ago and gold has followed my arrows almost perfectly…

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=2&dy=0&id=p52348702361&a=484925243

    • On December 21, 2016 at 12:57 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Yep, I had posted the drill results up above and was very impressed with their 10% raise in production guidance for 2017. Things are moving the right direction and Jaguar isn’t anywhere close to being valued like peers, so there is a nice value/perception arbitrage opportunity.