Are we looking at a future characterized by inflation or deflation?
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Uranium stocks doing very yesterday and today. Wonder if the bottom is actually in this time but that DOW, NASDAQ and S&P look frighteningly high.
When everything falls they all will fall. But when will that be?
(Answers on a postcard.).
When TZA turns, you will have your answer.
Yes. Uranium stocks are the place to be. I sold most of my gold and silver stocks months ago.
I’ve been having some success in Uranium, Gold, Silver, Lithium, Zinc, and Copper stocks.
Lots’s of movement in all resource stocks lately.
I spent most of the day focused on Cobalt and posted a nice list of companies in this room:
China’s 2016 Zinc conc deficit widens to 448,000 mt on environment monitoring
Singapore (Platts)–14 Feb 2017
“China’s zinc concentrate deficit in 2016 is estimated at 448,000 mt, widening from 9,000 mt in 2015, key Chinese zinc producer Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group’s subsidiary Tongguan Jinyuan said in its commodity report issued Tuesday.”
“Tongguan Jinyuan said that due to the cold winter back in the first quarter of last year, zinc mines in North China suspended production, thereby limiting domestic mined zinc output in Q1.”
PDAC Zinc exhibitors list:
3 Month Bar Chart for some key Uranium #Producers and #Developers
$CCJ $ARVCF $PALAF $UUUU $URG $DNN $UEC $URRE $WSTRF $ARY
3 Month Bar Chart for some key Uranium #Explorers
$UEX $FCU $NXE $CVV $AL $PLU $AZZ $SYH $BKY.L $GXU
2017-02-14 09:31 ET – News Release
Mr. John Burzynski reports
OSISKO INTERSECTS 9.76 G/T AU OVER 7.3 METRES AT WINDFALL
Interesting discussion guys.
The change of monetary policy coupled with the unwinding of fiat debt ( which is deflationary) adding infrastructure spending chasing physical assets ( which is inflationary ) =” reflation “.
I listened to a discussion about the effect of AI and self driving vehicles on employment the other night.
How are we going to get inflation when about only half the population employed today is working in 10 years?
The lost jobs are going to be beyond imagination.
One way to create employment might be to eliminate combines and go back to manually cutting wheat for example.
I wonder how that would go over?
I think we are on the verge of a whole new world few can imagine.
The desires of man are insatiable, therefore, there should be no loss of jobs. If there are, it will be because of socialism which pays people to sit on their ass. If improvements in technology caused unemployment, we would all be unemployed already.
most “sit on their ass”……while using a computer…….. đź™‚
Disagree wayne, most people would quite happily live the life of a dog if they could.
Well, Bertrand Russel would argue people would gravitate to hobbys that eventually support them.
My point tho, is you have no idea whats comng.
This will have a more profound effect than automobiles, air craft carriers and even stirrups had.
The canadian gov, tried to tell us they are going to invest in education to prepare for it.
Sure, 10 years education to become a doc and in that time the profession could be eliminated…waste of time and money.
They have no idea what to train people for.
Our kids and grandkids will be living in a world we can not imagine today.
Just as people couldnt imagine what Nostrodamous spoke of.
excuse the spelling.
Humans living the life of a dog are miserable, truth be told, so doing it “happily” is a lie. Besides that, those who live that way are thieves, living on what is stolen (by the government) from the productive, unless they are living off of their own savings, which they have every right to do. I am ok with people wasting their time and money, but I’m not ok with people wasting MY time and money. Besides, in a free economy, very little is ever wasted.
b: Interesting thoughts. This guy agrees with you and weekly says why: http://kunstler.com/
b said: “I think we are on the verge of a whole new world few can imagine.”
Buckminster Fuller said: “You never change things by fighting the existing reality. To change something, build a new model that makes the old model obsolete.”
I agree you, b. And just the way no one could imagine the industrial revolution, or space travel, or conducting a large part of your life from a device that fits in the palm of your hand, or any of the game changers that are part of the flow of life, only those with a “new model” in mind will be able to envision the vastness of the changes that I feel are coming.
Personally, I’m ready for a total change… in a much more refined atmosphere.
“You never change things by fighting the existing reality. To change something, build a new model that makes the old model obsolete.” ~Buckminster Fuller
Why would / should we care about Uranium pricing. The economy is slow, oil P is low, oil demand is low, and new reactor plans are dead. The preferred energy source is oil, nuclear is an afterthought only used as a response to high oil P and scares availability.
The Japs showed the world nuclear can’t be managed – so I fail to see how uranium is any kind of a bellwether indicator. Perhaps someone can set me straight
I suspect that it is such a beaten down sector that people are buying it merely because they perceive cheap shares that can be pumped, as opposed to any fundamental reason to own uranium stocks.
There is no doubt shares are cheap, but I don’t think investors that understand the Uranium space are buying them merely as a pump. The all in production price for Uranium is around $50-$60 per lb, and it traded under $18 last November. Anyone with an inkling of a clue about supply/demand realized this situation can not continue.
Since the end of last year Uranium has moved up from $18 to $26+ and rising, so that put some initial lift in some of the stocks. Many mines were put on care & maintenance due to the low prices in 2015 & 2016 crimping supplies. Next the US government and Russian governments agreed to quit flooding the markets with more enriched Uranium and Plutonium, (which has been killing the spot prices) Then there was a slight Trump effect when he tweeted some comments interpreted as bullish for the sector. The real prime mover was when Kazakhstan (the largest Uranium producer on the planet) announced a 10% cut in their output due to the low prices.
Those are all fundamental drivers, and with Nuclear power making up roughly 20% of the worlds energy mix, obviously the cost of Uranium must rise or the supply will be destroyed.
Lastly, only a small amount of Uranium is actually purchased on the spot market, because most is purchased using long-duration off-take agreements. Most of the active producers like Cameco, Energy Fuels, and Ur-Energy have off take agreements in the $40s and $50s, and those expire over the next 2-3 years. When new off-take agreements get negotiated, they won’t be at $18 or $26, but quite a bit higher, and this will cause a sudden increase in the spot pricing.
Those gains in the Uranium miners since the end of last year to present are anticipating this change to the economics.
Many of the companies are up 60% – 300% in just the last 3 months. It’s been quite profitable:
Nuclear can be managed. Nuclear is being managed. Accidents happen. In every industry. But we don’t abandon them. We press on. The world will eventually go nuclear, and once government gets out of the way, solar power, which is a joke, will be just a hobby. Besides, in a way, we already have solar. Where does the energy in oil come from? Exactly!
Safety of Nuclear Power Reactors
(Updated May 2016)
– As in other industries, the design and operation of nuclear power plants aims to minimise the likelihood of accidents, and avoid major human consequences when they occur.
– There have been three major reactor accidents in the history of civil nuclear power â€“ Three Mile Island, Chernobyl and Fukushima. One was contained without harm to anyone, the next involved an intense fire without provision for containment, and the third severely tested the containment, allowing some release of radioactivity.
– These are the only major accidents to have occurred in over 16,000 cumulative reactor-years of commercial nuclear power operation in 33 countries.
– The evidence over six decades shows that nuclear power is a safe means of generating electricity.
– The risk of accidents in nuclear power plants is low and declining.
– The consequences of an accident or terrorist attack are minimal compared with other commonly accepted risks.
– The use of nuclear energy for electricity generation can be considered extremely safe. Every year several thousand people die in coal mines to provide this widely used fuel for electricity. There are also significant health and environmental effects arising from fossil fuel use.
Others can do better than me, but there is a lot that is bullish in uranium.
It’s the most beaten down sector there is.
It cost a lot more to produce than the current price, so there is supply destruction.
Many new reactors are planned to be built.
Japan’s reactors are going to be reactivated (maybe some already have?)
It’s been a very good sector the last couple of months–uranium miners have been as profitable, or more, than junior precious metals miners.
Yes it has GH, Uraniums turn instead of pot for awhile. lol
Other than canopy of course.
I dont think uranium is good for the survival of the species so I dont invest in it.
I used to agree with you, r.e. uranium, but now I’m agnostic. I don’t know enough about the new reactor designs to opine, but some say they’re vastly safer.
But then, we have to have enough brains not to build reactors where we know they will eventually be hit by a tsunami. I always had a high opinion of Japanese intelligence and responsibility, but Fukushima tarnished that. Also a good idea not to build on major fault lines.
Anyway, I figure whether I invest or not makes zero difference. But on the other hand, I think like you when it comes to weapons companies, monsanto, etc. Though I’ve thought of trading Monsanto just to use all profits to wage publicity campaigns against them.
Nope GH, if I invest or not it changes nothing.
Except to what I see in my mirror, and conversation with my kids and grandkids.
There are many opportunities for investment, I dont need uranium to make money, or weapons,forced labor etc.
I choose what I think helps matters or at least doesnt hurt anything.
To each his own.
On the other hand, I read some years ago that spent uranium rods make the perfect fuel for what some scientists thought would be needed for space travel.
They even predicted the grave yards for used rods would become the most valuable property there was.
Well, if that happens I guess Id have to say I dont know anything. lol
Canopy sold off on its latest quarterly report…..considering getting back into this one soon…did work in an office below a pot dispensary ….what a cash cow
You need to read “The Health Hazards of NOT Going Nuclear” by Petr Beckmann, author and engineer who is STILL (although now deceased) ahead of his time. Those who ignorantly reject nuclear power (because they are afraid of the radiation bogey man) which is 10,000X (that’s, ten thousand times!) safer than the next safest method of mass energy generation, are ignorantly advocating for the injury and death of a lot more people.
Radioactive Wastes – Myths and Realities
(Updated February 2016)
“There are a number of pervasive myths regarding both radiation and radioactive wastes. Some lead to regulation and actions which are counterproductive to human health and safety.”
“With the availability of technologies and the continued progress being made to develop publicly acceptable sites, it is logical that construction of new nuclear facilities can continue.”
“Nuclear energy has distinct environmental advantages over fossil fuels. As well as containing and managing virtually all its wastes, nuclear power stations do not cause any pollution.The fuel for nuclear power is virtually unlimited, considering both geological and technological aspects. There is plenty of uranium in the Earth’s crust and furthermore, well-proven (but not yet fully economic) technology means that we can extract about 60 times as much energy from it as we do today.”
“The safety record of nuclear energy is better than for any major industrial technology. All these benefits should be taken into account when considering the construction of new facilities.”
“Nuclear materials have been transported safely (virtually without incident and without harmful effect on anyone) since before the advent of nuclear power over 50 years ago. Transportations of nuclear materials cannot therefore be referred to as ‘mobile Chernobyls’.”
“Relative to petrol and chemical tankers routinely used on public roads or on railways, transport of any radioactive wastes as normally practised poses trivial hazards.”
“The reality is that with today’s spent fuel or vitrified high-level waste (HLW), extra layers of protection come from the multi-barriers of stable ceramic material, encapsulation, and depth from the biosphere that are designed to prevent any movement of radioactivity for thousands of years. A stable geological formation, within which the waste will be disposed, also constitutes a highly reliable barrier.”
You should open your eyes and study the little info available on the Jap disaster. The Pacific Ocean is in the process of being completely contaminated. Soon, the nuclear contamination will circle the globe. It is absolutely incredible the disaster wrought on the environment. But yet – we worry about global warming. The stupidity of our world “leaders” is incredible.
David – I’ve invested in Nuclear energy and Uranium miners since 2010, and am all too familiar with the Fukushima disaster. I’ve read hundreds of articles and reports and half of them are “fake news” and run the gambit from slopping reporting, speculation, or flat out disinformation with an agenda.
Yes, It was a very unlikely set of twin natural disasters, an old reactor that should have been updated, a terrible design with the back up generators in the basement below sea level – next to the ocean, and spent fuel rods in the attic. TEPCO did a terrible job of maintaining the plant, and an even worse job with the cleanup.
There is no doubt their handling of the situation has been a mess, but there are 440 plants operating world wide industry, and after 60 years Nuclear power remains one of the safest forms of power generation methods with the fewest casualties.
I do agree with you that the “stupidity of our world “leaders” is incredible”, but that touches on many aspects of business, philosophy, and society and is not limited to this discussion.
I agree David.
A canadian scientist, David Susuki (has a bit of a reputation) said as soon as it happened it had the potential to end the ocean.
We will see I guess.
Hard to call all the dead sea life washing up on shores “fake news” tho.
“Photos that claim to show the effects of the Fukushima nuclear disaster on marine life are actually cribbed from various unrelated corners of the internet.”
In February 2016, a series of photos purportedly showing the ill effects that the Fukushima nuclear disaster had on marine life was widely shared on social media. A popular Facebook post, which appeared to be a rewrite of an article published by web site Superstation95 in October 2015, reported that North Americans were eating seafood filled with â€ścancerous tumorsâ€ť:
“While the Daiichi meltdowns and subsequent radiation releases did have a major effect on aquatic life, these photos do not illustrate those effects. For instance, the lead photo of the article, purportedly showing the â€śbloodyâ€ť and â€ścancerousâ€ť tumors caused by nuclear radiation, was actually taken in 2004, years before the Fukushima disaster started leaking radiation into the sea:”
The article then shows a picture of â€ścancerous tumors in salmonâ€ť purportedly linked to a rise in nuclear radiation in oceans:
“Again, however, the above-displayed image was taken prior to the Fukushima disaster. The image also does not show cancerous tumors, or any type of tumor at all. Instead, it was lifted from Wikipedia, and shows a salmon infected with with Henneguya salminicola, a myxosporean parasite.”
“Another misleading photo featured University of Alberta scientist David Schindler holding a fish with a growth. The article reported that this image depicted a fish â€śshowing classic signs of radiation-caused cancerous tumors,â€ť but Schindler said that the fish was taken from the Athabasca River watershed, which is downstream from an oil sands industrial development â€” not a nuclear plant:”
* it goes on from there with example after example…… Yes b, there is plenty of “fake news” about the dead seafood. Don’t trouble yourself with the truth though….
True facts about Ocean Radiation and the Fukushima Disaster
BY Dr. Marini
“Rather unfortunately, it has also led to some wild speculation on the widespread dangers of Fukushima radiation on the internet. Posts with titles like â€śHoly Fukushima â€“ Radiation From Japan Is Already Killing North Americansâ€ť and â€ś28 Signs That The West Coast Is Being Absolutely Fried With Nuclear Radiation From Fukushimaâ€ť (which Southern Fried Science has already throughly debunked ) keep popping up on my facebook feed from well-meaning friends.”
“Iâ€™m here to tell you that these posts are just plain garbage. While there are terrible things that happened around the Fukushima Power Plant in Japan; Alaska, Hawaii and the West Coast arenâ€™t in any danger. These posts were meant to scare people (and possibly written by terrified authors). They did just that, but there is a severe lack of facts in these posts. Which is why I am here to give you the facts, and nothing but the facts.”
It goes on to provide facts on the types of isotopes, radiation, risks, reality, hype, fake news and all around nonsense circulating on the internet that radiation will sweep the globe.
David – there are 60+ reactors being built and another 100 planned, so I’m not sure where you’ve developed the opinion that “new reactor plans are dead.”
Roughly 20% of the world energy mix comes from Nuclear, so I’d hardly call that an “afterthought”.
The new Carbon emission rules that about 150+ countries are committing to and pollution controls in many companies have fossil fuels in the cross hairs. That is why coal over the last 5 year has continued to be phased out little by little, and these same global initiatives will increasingly pressure fossil fuels moving forward.
The Electric Cars, Electric Bus fleets, Electric Bikes, Mobile power, etc….. are moving towards the need for increased electrification and less need for Oil & Gas. Don’t get me wrong, there are thousands of uses and applications for petroleum products, and I believe they’ll always be around, but not always as the primary energy source.
Nobody can set someone else straight, (especially if they have limiting belief systems or are rigid in their opinions), but educating yourself on the trends in the Energy sector would likely help to see how Nuclear will remain an import part of the energy mix.
More layoffs….in banking…Credit swisscheese…..laying off 6500………..zh
I think the economy just got slower…………….
GOLDMAN denies Bonus to 100 investment bankers………trouble in river city…..
the under performers might be on the street soon……..
wonder if they will try going into govt…..
KIM JONG’s brother just got wacked……..murdered…….North Korea just got more crazy
Russian spy ship………spotted 70 miles off coast of Delaware……maybe they are thinking of incorporating in the state of delaware to avoid income tax………..
I don’t care what the dollar does relative to other currencies, over the medium to long term, it will continue to lose purchasing power.
The people at Sprott have some things to say about the dollar that is worth reading. That section starts at the bottom of page 15 here:
ditto on the dollar………..abolish the fed, and it might stabilize …….
So here’s the thing: How exactly is the effect on the markets of SAYING they are going to raise the rates different than ACTUALLY raising the rates? It seems as if people are trading as if the rate changes are a done deal . . . hence the reason that the metals stay “suppressed.”
Copper has not surprised me but it was lonely to be bullish just 18 months ago:
There were better opportunities than copper for a long while.
My copper is only up 60-70% in the last 6 months or so.
Pot was better.
Hardly the point, b. I share opinions about lots of markets that I may not have any exposure to. At the time that I was bullish copper, I liked zinc more and silver miners more still. My three largest positions last January happened to be silver juniors that gained about 1,000% on average — in six months.
standard for you isnt it? 1000% every six months.
Think you missed my point,…there were better choices than copper for some time.
I didnt say anything about you owning them or not.
Standard for me? What are you babbling about? Everyone here knows that I talked about buying those three silver stocks when it mattered — BEFORE they went up. I mentioned many of my purchases on the days that they happened and after they jumped off of their lows, I continued to tell everyone what I thought before they got away. For example:
You, btw, had no point other than to act like a mini Birdman. I’m sure you miss him tremendously.
Copper performed as I expected and it is called doctor copper for a reason. It is important for reasons that have nothing to do with investing in copper-related assets.
25% of California Food Production is within 1 hr. of this Lake.
If the concrete spillway is washed out, a 30 Ft wall of water will rush down the hillside. The problem won’t be the flood, or the 200,000 people displaced from farms, homes etc. it will be what comes after, the effect of the loss of the essential water for running the 25% of the food production will cause a economic hardship on California that there is no precident for.
Lets hope the thing doesn’t wash out.
The intermediate term picture for the Canadian dollar continues to improve:
A weekly close above the dashed green line should get it moving:
The short term (daily chart) is mixed but the bulls have the edge:
The Dow is overbought but looks like it will stay overbought for awhile yet:
I predicted the current move to yet another new high about a month ago but did not think it would be so strong or occur without negative technical divergences.
The green arrows that I placed on the following chart show that I was way too conservative. I had expected action similar to the highlighted 2013 action:
don’t know if this was posted before…a little video from impact silver: https://smallcappower.com/videos/companies-to-watch/impact-silver-profitable-silver/?utm_source=February+14%2C+2017&utm_campaign=February+13%2C+2017&utm_medium=email
Thanks, I missed that one.
Thanks for posting. Liked what I heard and most of it was new………
Thanks for that video dw jones !
Silver looking good…………might even break above $18…….
You might want to START your education about uranium by reading the linked article. You seem to forget about China’s more than 60 reactors under construction or planned and many other countries are building reactors.
Also you must be unaware of Steve STAngelo’s articles about the declining energy returned on energy invested with respect to oil.
GDX is starting to move up slowly. I put in premarket shots in the dark buys from 25.20 to 24.70 that triggered. I was getting in late to the office.
Yes, bullish action in JNUG today. I see that a lot of guys whose views I value are looking for a pullback soon. But I think it will get to at least the high $13s first.
GDX is looking sick and I may dump again by the close.
I see what you mean, and am on a hair-trigger myself, but GDXJ/JNUG fared a bit better today, closing near the open and highs of the day.
I think they’re going higher but the risk-reward is obviously not optimal right now. In several weeks, I believe it will be.
Fwiw, I will remain heavily exposed since I can’t get out of my juniors easily.
One of my electronic offers on Toronto downtown condos went through on a tiny 1 bedroom in front of the Rogers stadium at 36 Blue Jays way. Just throwing darts as people keep offering well above asking but somehow I landed one. Will have to see if one day when I can find the time. I let my wife do all the hard work. I hate downtown traffic and stay far away.
Wow-Paul.. nice location!!
Hi Paul L, try living downtown without a car it is marvelous. There are so many ways to commute that don’t involve an automobile which isn’t freedom it is slavery. All the time and money spent keeping a car on the road is a waste of human endeavor.DT
That is a great idea. I am addicted to having several German sporty cars and living in the suburbs. Insurance and servicing plus car loans gets quite expensive. Properties are just for rental.
In the world of over-valued stock prices and quadrillions of derivatives we find articles like this. LOL
Oil a very frustrating trade. I finally got a good spike in XOP after 3 pm and sold very large position held for a few days.
Hey everyone: You must take the time to listen to this podcast by Chris Martenson on the Oroville Dam: About 1 hour: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rl7Sm15unPQ
with a new guy in charge of the exchange stabilization fund at the treasury, one wonders, what’s next? Same ole same ole, or… ? ( popcorn required )
Ouch! A little cold water for the folks who believe in a return of the PM bull.
Have you read this Matt, EX or any other gold bulls here?
the gold gurus are full of charts and theories, and most are not batting 50%…..long term gold has returned 9%…..have some , keep some…..you will never be broke…. jmho
Thanks confused. I responded to this piece and the question of if we are in a PM bull or bear on the daily market wrap.
Plunger’s post today. A must read!!!