Commentary from both Chris and Rick – Thu 16 Feb, 2017

Chris and Rick on Thursday morning market activity

Stocks hold near their recent all-time highs even as The Odd Couple — Treasuries and gold — strengthen.  In the end, someone is going to be wrong.


Featuring:
Chris TempleRick Ackerman

Comments:
  1. On February 16, 2017 at 9:29 am,
    Excelsior says:

    Want to trade gold rally? Go for Silver

    Tuesday, 14 Feb 2017 – Daryl Guppy

    “Silver lags the gold price behavior. Silver has a resistance level near $18.75 and then at $21.00. The $18.75 level is the equivalent to the $1,290 resistance level on the gold chart. Since silver lags gold, its price is only just moving above the Traders ATR breakout line near $17.30.

    A breakout at this level has target near $18.72. This trade offers a 8.3 percent return compared with a 5.7 percent return from gold for the same price behavior move.

    Silver has a longer term upside target of $21.00. That’s 16.6 percent from the current price near $18.00.

    Silver is slower to move, but it has more room to move and that delivers better profits. ”

    http://www.cnbc.com/2017/02/14/op-ed-want-to-trade-gold-rally-go-for-silver.html?

    • On February 16, 2017 at 9:50 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Dolly Varden Announces a 5,000 Metre Drilling Program and an Offering of Common and Flow-Through Shares
      (Marketwired – February 16, 2017)

      “The 2017 exploration program will consist of approximately 5,000 metres of diamond drilling, with two-thirds allocated for resource expansion and one-third allocated to reconnaissance drilling on targets beyond the current resource estimates. Geological mapping, plus geophysical and geochemical surveys are planned for both the main Dolly Varden Ag-Pb-Zn Project and the adjacent Big Bulk Cu-Au Project.”

      “Dolly Varden is a high-grade silver camp with excellent potential to expand the known resources. We look forward to a new phase of exploration in this historic mining district,” said Gary Cope, President and CEO of Dolly Varden.

      https://www.dollyvardensilver.com/news/2017/dolly-varden-announces-a-5-000-metre-drilling-program-and-an-offering-of-common-and-flow-through-shares/

      • On February 16, 2017 at 9:56 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        (DV) (DOLLF) is now part of my “Dirty Dozen” Silver miners portfolio, so it’s getting exciting to get geared up for their next drilling campaign.

        Big Al – if you see this….. I know you are pals with Gary Cope, and it would be great to get him on the show once they get some of these drill results back in and assayed.

        I believe this company will be Gary’s next successful acquisition target for a major. (As a reminder, Hecla already tried once last year, and I’m sure there are other Majors watching this drill campaign in the Golden Triangle very closely)

  2. On February 16, 2017 at 9:42 am,
    Silverdollar says:

    On the consumption subject, agree that most are overloaded now. Few people in my neighborhood (A new one, still growing) use their garage for the vehicle. The double garage is too full of stored junk. Many also rent a storage facility. Perhaps this will push new housing since they all need more room!

  3. On February 16, 2017 at 10:33 am,
    Matthew says:

    PPP fell from Schiff fork resistance precisely to support before bouncing this morning:

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=PPP&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=13&id=p70930939728&a=507178767

    • On February 16, 2017 at 10:38 am,
      Matthew says:

      It has now back-tested another Schiff fork that it had broken out of on the 6th:

      http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=PPP&p=D&yr=0&mn=5&dy=0&id=p74031770132&a=503312006

      • On February 16, 2017 at 11:49 am,
        Excelsior says:

        I decided to start adding some PPP this afternoon, because the more I looked at the longer term charts and cross-referenced that with their 2016 production results released in January, then it seems crazily undervalued now. (despite the mine shut down due to the strikes). Over and over again with miners, I’ve seen them over-react on bad news, and I love to buy once the news has sunk in.

        – There was a fantastic trade last year with OreZone when their resource estimate. Investors freaked out and chopped the stock down so much, that I couldn’t resist, and of course the stock eventually rebounded nicely.

        – Last year when Sabina Gold & Silver initially ran into the permit snag with the first nations over caribou herds, it sold off waaay to far, and I jumped in for a nice recovery rally.

        – In December, when Argonaut had a snag in their permit, the stock sold off too hard and I bought with both hands, knowing that didn’t even effect any of their producing mines and was only 1 of 4 development projects for them (and they’ll likely still get that permit anyway). Regardless the share price recovered right back up again.

        – So now today…… After the Primero Labor FreakOut….. It feels good to start building a position in PPP. Nobody can say this stock is expensive here 🙂

        “Buy when there’s blood in the streets….”

        Primero Achieves 2016 Revised Production and Cost Guidance
        01/18/2017

        http://www.primeromining.com/English/investors/news/press-release-details/2017/Primero-Achieves-2016-Revised-Production-and-Cost-Guidance/default.aspx

        • On February 16, 2017 at 11:59 am,
          Excelsior says:

          Speaking of (AR) (ARNGF) Argonaut Gold’s Bounce and Recovery……

          Here’s some impressive news out today:

          _______________________________________________________________________

          Argonaut Gold Announces Three-Year Production Outlook; Provides Updated Mineral Reserves and Resources
          February 16, 2017

          Three-Year Production Outlook

          Based on life-of-mine planning at December 31, 2016, the Company anticipates it will achieve production growth on a gold equivalent ounce (“GEO”) basis as its San Agustin and La Colorada projects ramp up and lower the overall cost profile. The Company’s goal is to achieve annual all-in sustaining costs per gold ounce sold at or below $950. Table 1 below illustrates the Company’s three-year GEO production outlook:

          Three-Year GEO Production Outlook

          2017 115,000 – 130,000 ounces
          2018 155 ,000 – 170,000 ounces
          2019 170,000 – 185,000 ounces

          San Agustin Construction Progress

          “The Company is pleased to report its San Agustin project is currently tracking on schedule and budget with construction approximately 26% complete and first gold production anticipated during the third quarter of 2017. The crusher pad, leach pad and pond construction are well underway and the Company anticipates it will commence laying leach pad liner and begin relocating the west crusher from El Castillo prior to the end of the first quarter. ”

          http://www.argonautgold.com/news_events/news/news_release/index.php?&content_id=318

        • On February 16, 2017 at 12:02 pm,
          Matthew says:

          I’ve been buying on both exchanges today but most the NYSE. My average price so far is .7653 – which is about .015 lower than the VWAP today.

          There will probably be more weakness tomorrow since that is typical for day 2 after such a press release.

          • On February 16, 2017 at 1:11 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Yeup, makes sense. I’m in just a hair over $.77. If there is continued weakness, then I’ll average down a bit more. The downside risk will be muted compared to where this could move when the strike gets settled and the marketplace does a better valuation on the company. If I need to camp out a little while with it, that’s fine.

            Thanks for all the charts as well. Cheers!

          • On February 16, 2017 at 1:15 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            When I pull up a 5 year chart, I’m pretty happy to be positioned where I am with this producer.

          • On February 16, 2017 at 2:19 pm,
            Dick Tracy says:

            Matt and Ex, I also picked up some Primero today, thank my lucky stars that I am out of NDM for now, it is just too crazy but I must say I enjoyed the action. DT

          • On February 16, 2017 at 2:23 pm,
            Dick Tracy says:

            Holding Primero will be like watching the new meat slicer at the corner store in Claremont Ontario, or waiting for the cars to rust, but I could use a change of venue for now.

          • On February 16, 2017 at 2:59 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            DT – It sure seemed like a good day to become a Primero shareholder 🙂

            Maybe it will sell off more tomorrow, but the worst of the decline in this stock seems over to me when looking at it from a longer term perspective. We’ll find out later in the year if we were crazy or not 😮

        • On February 16, 2017 at 2:38 pm,
          RICHARD/DOC says:

          I also added to PPP on its’ drop today—-76cts—I’ll add some more in the next couple of days

          • On February 16, 2017 at 3:05 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Well, with all of adding here, let’s bring them on as a show sponsor. (ha!)

            {after the strike is over of course….}

    • On February 16, 2017 at 11:40 am,
      Matthew says:
  4. On February 16, 2017 at 10:48 am,
    Matthew says:

    Speaking of forks, the NYSE composite index has found resistance at the median line of an Andrew’s pitchfork:

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYA&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=22&id=p24847134384&a=440332926

  5. On February 16, 2017 at 12:08 pm,
    Xriva says:

    OUCH !
    US OTC Ticker = BRSLF – Barsele Minerals Corp. Barsele Minerals – 26% drop today !

  6. On February 16, 2017 at 12:29 pm,
    Matthew says:

    The dollar is not having a good day. Here’s the dollar etf UUP:

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=UUP&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=22&id=p54589888189&a=491065247

  7. On February 16, 2017 at 12:58 pm,
    Nigel Hickey says:

    Yep, Barsele management on this site states new resource expected @ 4 million plus oz, JV partner then announces resource @ 0.7 million, even lower than the original recource estimate of 1 million oz. Something stinks and no answers yet, Mr Cope!! How is it possible to go through 18 months of extensive drilling and end with with a lower resource, help anyone…..

    • On February 16, 2017 at 3:08 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Maybe the original resource estimate was bunk. That’s why they call drilling the “truth machine.”

      • On February 16, 2017 at 3:11 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        Although, really it is how the resource estimate is blocked and modeled that determines the resources that are proven, probable, indicated, and inferred. There is a lot of creative license in that area and is why things like Rubi-con or the Luna Gold fiasco happened. People modeled their deposits wrong and didn’t really do enough testing to fully understand the geology. That same thing happened, to a much lessor extent, with OreZone last year – they finished their drilling and shrunk the size of their deposit.

  8. On February 16, 2017 at 1:07 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    Tesla Inc (TSLA) Engineer And Lithium Americas Corp (LAC) CTO Dr. David Deak On Lithium And Cobalt Supply

    By: James West – February 16, 2017

    http://www.midasletter.com/2017/02/former-tesla-motors-engineer-and-lithium-americas-cto-dr-david-deak-on-lithium-and-cobalt-supply/

    • On February 16, 2017 at 10:44 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Uranium Prices Set to Head Higher
      February 16, 2017 – by Luke Burgess

      “Here’s the biggest problem with the uranium market…

      It’s boring!

      Uranium is neither sexy nor exciting. There are no great tales in the uranium market to tell. And human beings are simply more persuaded by a good story than by a good argument (see: “Narrative Paradigm Theory”). So the uranium market has almost always had difficultly finding investors.

      But I don’t care about stories. I care about numbers and ROI. And the returns from high-quality uranium stocks over the next several months are almost inevitable. Here’s why…

      Right now, there are currently almost 450 nuclear reactors supplying power for over 30 countries around the world. These reactors supply approximately 2.5 TWh of electricity.

      At the current rate of consumption with conventional reactors, the world’s supply of recoverable uranium will last for about 80 years.

      But that’s only at current consumption rates.

      There are over 60 new nuclear reactors being built around the world at this very minute, and another 150 are in different stages of planning. These new reactors will add over 1 Twh of nuclear-generated electricity. But they also mean the world’s supply of recoverable uranium is down to 60 years. And it doesn’t stop there.

      Conservative estimates show global nuclear energy demand growing by about 4% CAGR through the next five years. And as the demand for nuclear energy continues to grow, so too will the demand for uranium.”

      https://www.energyandcapital.com/articles/uranium-prices-set-to-head-higher/5754

  9. On February 16, 2017 at 2:55 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    11 Stunning Visualizations of Gold Show Its Value and Rarity

    BY JEFF DESJARDINSFEBRUARY 16, 2017

    http://money.visualcapitalist.com/11-visualizations-gold-cubes/

    • On February 16, 2017 at 3:07 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      I love the last 2 “Cubes” of Gold.

  10. On February 16, 2017 at 4:16 pm,
    wolfster says:
    • On February 16, 2017 at 9:46 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Thanks. What are your thoughts on thunderstruck, and in particular, their jurisdiction in Fiji?

      I like that they’ve gold Copper/Zinc/Gold, but worry about permitting. They better not mess up my Fiji water aquifer 🙂

      • On February 17, 2017 at 4:01 am,
        wolfster says:

        It definitely sounds interesting and Thom sums it up quite well,I’m just not a fan of where it is….I have definitely come to prefer anything as good in the Americas even Argentina now

  11. On February 16, 2017 at 5:16 pm,
    wolfster says:

    What I wrote on stockhouse re: gzz/rzz
    Yes all of Odyssey is 1.43M but rzz is only odyssey north so it’s still an unknown really what the reserves are for rzz’s royalties.I did speak with Ian Ball this morning..Key points are that this years drilling plans going in for odyssey are for 100,000ft while last year was only 80,000ft going in and ended up being 125,000ft.The resource estimate is already dated as it doesn’t include the internal zones.Most of that internal zone drilling was on the north part and had some good intercepts.Still calling for production in 2021.Contained no mention of drill results of what he referred to as the pit deposit which is connected to the gouldie and Barnett property but still was listed for production in 2018.Abitibi’s update would be in late March or early April from the data that will be forwarded to them from Agnico…also will be looking at possibly going on bnn again sometime over the next few weeks to get updated info out to as many as possible..that’s all I remember.age is catching up to me

    • On February 16, 2017 at 9:44 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Wolfster – Great summary of the past drill campaign, and the slated drilling for this year at Odyssey. (also great point about the relevance at RZZ being north). It is also good to reflect on the resource being dated and when they input all this new data it really will be a nice upgrade. That’s cool that you spoke with Ian today, and I’ll be looking for that interview in the next few weeks on BNN. Please post it if you see it (as I’ll be heading out on vacation tomorrow night and will only be skimming over the next week).

      I just want to say I really appreciate your posts here on the KER. Keep up the great work.

      • On February 17, 2017 at 3:58 am,
        wolfster says:

        Thanks Ex.Just sharing when I can like everyone else on here.Others like yourself and Mathew and CFS certainly bring a lot to the table every day.Obviously Rick Cory and Al as well…..btw one thing I remembered as I lay in bed last night was that Ian also mentioned that on one of abitibi’s other properties that golden valley has done some drilling and should have results out soon too.Hoping to speak with golden valley at some point although I’ve had less success why trying to contact them

  12. On February 16, 2017 at 7:23 pm,
    Chris in the Philippines says:

    Chris and Rick gotta love it!

    • On February 16, 2017 at 9:37 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      +2

      • On February 17, 2017 at 12:23 am,
        Excelsior says:

        Rick A. – Hope you have a great day on Friday out on the slopes! You deserve the time off.