Was today the day that the optimism driving the markets finally turned?
Today was a big day for the markets. We saw all the broad averages sell over more than 1% today with the biggest moves coming at the tail end of the day. With comments made on healthcare reform being delayed this pushes back all the policies that Trump won the election on. The market has been driven by optimism and not corresponding economic data… This could be where that all changes.
Chris Temple joins me to outline why he thinks today was so important for the markets as well as his thoughts on the safe haven asset moves.
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
Interesting how quickly things can change. Let’s see if we get some follow through to the end of the week. These one day swings have far too often been bought back up shortly after.
S&p sell signal was many days ago near the 8th or 9th I might have mentioned.
Added to my hopium trade, UVXY. Easy to ave down when you pay no commissions. Will ride a tight stop on the new shares. Guess it’s time to buy back in to SPXS. 60% of my cash is sidelined.
Jason, I had already averaged down in UVXY since the beginning of last week, and used today’s spike in the VIX as an escape hatch for much of that position exiting with a small gain. I did leave a little UVXY in place to see if we get follow-through selling pressure in the equities and more volatility and hedging in the markets for the balance of this week.
This site will lose it’s relevance if there aren’t interactions between the posters and KER, most of the people who come here like communication, but KER Report isn’t responding these days and it will not be successful if there is no dialogue. Life is temporary but understanding how to have a successful business is an age old problem. DT
I would agree with that……………j
Good point DT. I will do my best to post more in the comment section. I do read over the comments everyday to get an idea of what everyone is thinking. It helps me find topics of interest.
Out of curiosity, DT, what would it be worth to you in a monthly “support” fee for the KER to have a lot more interaction and tools? It is something I long since proposed but which has remained on the drawing board. Speaking only for myself here, mind you, I need to focus the lion’s share of my time on people who recognize its value and support me. Thus, I do not always answer things here myself.
Hi Chris, I think it should remain an open and public forum, where people can come and exchange ideas because they have a common interest. There are enough sites out there you can go and pay for tools. What made this site work in the past was a feeling that we were all family and I think that is what most of us want and need. Having said that the moderators need to interact or the family will go it’s own way. DT
It also must be a good mix of economics, politics, and humor, and be balanced.
In other words, you disagree with the maxim that the laborer is worthy of his hire?
Mr T – It could work if there was a 2nd level to the Korelin Economics Report for expanded services to cover that labor. However, the KER is funded by the “Sponsorship Model” where the traffic to the site is a direct result of it being free (like Kitco or CEO.CA) and that traffic is what advertisers are paying for.
If the site became a subscription pay website for content, then obviously the traffic would go down dramatically and there would not be the need for sponsors.
I agree with DT that the blog and audio content should remain free if the Sponsors are paying for the site. Having said that, I also understand why you or Rick A need to spend the lion’s share of your time chatting with your subscriber base.
As for Cory & Big Al, it is nice if they come down and comment on the blog for an exchange of ideas, but they are both really busy lining up the show content, so if they don’t have time to comment, then that makes sense to me. It is good that they do read over the blog though for a sense of what people are discussing.
Cheers and we appreciate everyone’s hard work and contributions.
The info shared here on the KER is YUUUGE and Bigly!!
well said…..EX
Thanks OOTB
Maxine Waters is an idiot…….saying to Trump get ready for impeachment….she should be ran out of office….what a dunce….
just read that one on zerohedge…….
TERM LIMITS………for all these political hacks, that think they speak for the American people. She has been in office far too long.
It is sickening that there are constituencies of people that will actually elect Nancy Pelosi and Maxine Waters into office. I cannot think of a single reason why the good Lord should not come down and wipe both the California 12th and 43rd districts right off the map.
IMO………both are unfit to hold office………
Waters still does not know anything about the Fed Reserve
Hi, Ex!
Long time no see😛
I need your opinion about a Lithium company called Standard Lithium SLL. Its a new Company I think and they bought two landpackages in North America right around Teslas GigaFactory. Its strategic because Tesla and Apple wants their Lighium supply to come from Northamerica. The oher good thing was the news release that came out two days ago about e veru compeyent new guy stepping in and leading SLL.
STANDARD LITHIUM APPOINTS ROBERT MINTAK
March 21, 2017 – Vancouver, BC – Standard Lithium Ltd. (“Standard Lithium” or the “Company”) (TSXV: SLL) (FRA: S5L) is pleased to announce the appointment of Mr. Robert Mintak as a Director and interim Chief Executive Officer of the Company. Mr. Mintak will take up his appointment effective immediately and will be replacing Mr. Gavin Cooper who has resigned as interim CEO.
Mr. Mintak was one of the founders of Pure Energy Minerals, served as the company’s CEO from 2013 to 2016 and most recently as Executive Chairman. He has a global network of industry contacts and is a pioneer in the rapidly evolving lithium space. During his tenure with Pure Energy Minerals, Robert built a world-class team, launched multiple exploration and development programs, and oversaw the development of disruptive extraction process work. Robert was instrumental in negotiating one of the first conditional supply agreements for Tesla’s Gigafactory and under Mr. Mintak’s leadership, Pure Energy Minerals was recognized as the top mining company in the 2016 TSX Venture 50. Mr. Mintak has 20+ years’ experience in corporate management, with a specific emphasis on strategic development and corporate governance. Over the past 10 years, he has served as a senior officer and director of several publicly traded companies.
“I am very honoured and excited to join Standard Lithium and share their corporate vision. I believe Standard’s Bristol Lake Project in the Mojave area of California, combined with their extensive land position in the highly prospective Paradox Basin in Utah, has the potential to positively disrupt the domestic lithium landscape” said Mr. Mintak. “My ambition is to focus on innovation, lead the teams, and form strategic alliances to create value for the Company.”
Mr. Anthony Alvaro, founder and Director of Standard Lithium commented: “We are extremely pleased to welcome Robert as a member of the Board of Directors and CEO. His experience and strategic insights into the lithium market make him a valuable and perfect fit for Standard Lithium. He will focus on developing and pursuing new strategic growth opportunities with a mandate to aggressively strengthen the Company’s executive team and asset base. On behalf of the Board, I would also like to thank Gavin for his dedication and hard work over the last year.”
This guy worked at Pure Energy before.
Hey Blue – great to hear from you.
Yes, I’m vaguely familiar with the Standard Lithium (SLL) story, from when they converted over from being Patriot Petroleum at the end of last year. I recognize that they have had a nice run up in pricing because I track about 80 companies movement in the sector, but don’t have many insights on them in particular.
My concerns are that this team tanked out as Patriot Petroleum and diluted the snot out of retail investors on a wild goose chase, and now they are jumping from one sector (oil & gas) to a completely different sector with totally different skill sets & chemistry needed (Lithium mining). For me personally this just raises a red flag.
I also tried several ways to find their website and was unable to do so (maybe it exists but I dug up sites about it being a private company (even though I know they are publicly traded), I dug up info on their prior ticker (PPC) and the new one (SLL) but nothing that directed me to their website. If they have one it was not easy to locate, and if they don’t then come on…. it’s been since Dec of 2016 since they changed their name and it should be posted on all their press releases.
Speaking of press releases… I pulled up a few and saw that in February they acquired Moab Minerals (never heard of them) and now have picked up their Utah claims in the Paradox Basin (don’t know much about that area either).
What I can say is that I do have respect for Robert Mintak, so bringing him onto the team as the CEO and on the board is a nice addition and name to have picked up for their managment.
I’ve followed (PE) Pure Energy Minerals [the company he last served in] since late 2015 and was a shareholder through mid 2016. When they missed on their drill results I sold, because I felt their may be a larger problem at work on those results and their assumptions (and now I believe that to be the case). However, they were one of the early movers in the Clayton Valley and I do remember Robert negotiating that conditional supply agreement with Tesla and that was one of the things that under-pinned my decision to keep holding them back at that time period.
Maybe they really get something going with Mr. Mintak’s experience and the new properties, but I like investing in companies that have been developing their Lithium assets for years like Galaxy Resources, Lithium Americas corp, NeoMetals, Orocobre, Nemaska Lithium, Pilbara, Altura, etc….. over the Johnny Come Lately companies that are just now jumping on the Lithium bandwagon. There are close to 100 Lithium stocks now, but we only need about a dozen for the whole planet to be just fine. At this point, I’m going with the safer names that have made it into production or are Development stage and will be going into production in the next 1-2 years.
Blue please come visit us here on the KER from time to time and keep us posted of any other ideas. I’ve always valued your past comments and stocks to consider.
Cheers!
Hi Blue! And thanks Ex for looking into the Company. I have only heard in passing about SLL. I think Ex provided some good insights. I do agree with Ex that the best Lithium companies are those that have a track record in this fairly new sector and a property that is a bit more advanced. It’s already becoming a saturated market…
Thanks Cory. Yes, it is way saturated.
I’ve followed the Lithium space since 2011-2012 (when it was not cool) to present where it got very hyped up and frothy. Overall the Lithium mining space has corrected, and that was overdue.
The world doesn’t need 100 Lithium explorers that just jumped onto the trend with no experience or background to make a quick buck. However the world does need about a dozen real Lithium companies that can produce product for industrial use or battery use, and those companies have been working at it for years (not months) and were mentioned above.
_______________________________________________________________
Here’s an example out today of Nemaska (that I mentioned above) doing a supply agreement with one of the largest Chemical conglomerates on the planet – FMC Corp)
______________________________________________________________________________
Nemaska Lithium: FMC Corporation Makes US$10M Payment Per Lithium Carbonate Supply Agreement
(Marketwired – March 22, 2017)
“FMC Corporation will pay a lump sum of US$10,000,000 to Nemaska Lithium by April 7, 2017, in accordance with the Supply Agreement announced on October 31, 2016…”
“Under the Supply Agreement, as amended, Nemaska Lithium will begin to supply FMC with lithium carbonate no later than April 1, 2019. Nemaska Lithium will also provide lithium carbonate samples from its Phase 1 Plant to FMC for qualification in 2017.”
(I could see FMC taking over Nemaska down the road…… Just sayin’…. )
These Silver Stocks Are Turning The Corner
Mar. 21, 2017 – John Manfreda
http://seekingalpha.com/article/4056716-silver-stocks-turning-corner#alt2
Argonaut Gold Inc 2016 Q4 – Results – Earnings Call Slides
Mar. 21, 2017
The following slide deck was published by Argonaut Gold Inc in conjunction with their 2016 Q4 earnings call.
Argonaut Gold’s (ARNGF) CEO Peter Dougherty on Q4 2016 Results – Earnings Call Transcript
Mar. 21, 2017
I have a feeling the silver miners are going to get absolutely hammered (as in new lows) when the yen corrects.
For those that like watching companies overview their corporate presentations on video, the Swiss Mining Institute videos just were released from Day one of their conference.
(the first video is 4 hrs, but you can just drag the video to the segments you want to watch. About a dozen companies are overviewed and there are some key note speakers mixed in as well)
Here is the itinerary for Day 1 of the Swiss Mining Institute, so you know how to navigate in that video above to find the companies or speakers that interest investors here.
http://www.swissmininginstitute.ch/conferences/conference_geneva.php
look at the $gold:$xjy monthly chart. Something is going to give bigtime over the next year or two. I don’t like that gold was unable to break out vs yen in October/Nov. of 2016. The narrowing bollinger bands rejected the break out and left behind some black candles. To me it suggests that gold could *possibly* break down vs yen as the initial move out of an extremely tight consolidation (we haven’t seen a trading range this narrow and flat in at least 10 years). In any event, the ratio is worth watching.
Both look good to me.
Yen weekly:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24XJY&p=W&yr=3&mn=7&dy=0&id=p37262205985&a=453633914
The daily chart looks good as well:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24XJY&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=13&id=p79042148150&a=506523502
One thing noticed about AXU–during the entire bull, the 50 day ema stayed above the 200 day ema, and during the entire bear, the 50 day ema stayed below the 200 day ema.
Right now AXU is still indicating bull based on that historical action, although there is probably more time and room for downward price action given where the 50 day ema is currently relative to the 200 day ema.
EXK weekly chart–looks like a bear flag, waiting to break down and likely tag the lower bollinger in the 2.70 area.
As you can see, the December 2016 low for the yen was a very important one. The outlook is far from bearish:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24XJY&p=W&yr=5&mn=5&dy=0&id=p19807244626&a=496233029
With Gold up to $1248 and Silver up to $17.50, it would be more reassuring to see the miners taking that in stride and out-performing, but they’re mildly weak today in the morning session.
I think you can blame the weakness in the conventional stock markets for the relative weakness in the miners and silver.
Yes, that makes sense, but often the miners are inversely related to the conventional stock markets (Jordan Roy-Byrne put out some longer term charts that went back years and showed that general inverse relationship). Also Silver is up today along with Gold and I’d have expected more of a move up in the miners as their underlying commodities are rising, and the US dollar is falling (USD is down to 99.65).
All of those things should be bullish for the miners.
It appears to be more of a sell everything day, but I prefer to see the miners take the lead (especially when the metals are rising). What is tells me is that resource investors must not trust this move up in the metals, or that they are taking profits in miners to cover losses in other sectors.
It would be great if the metals just charged higher, while the greenback pulls back, and then maybe resource investors will get some gonads and get behind the move.
The miners have been moving inversely to the stock market. They were up yesterday while stocks were down and they’re down right now while stock are up. Here’s SIL:SPY:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SIL%3ASPY&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=13&id=p85491140922
And here’s GDXJ:SPY. Today looks like a normal gap-filling exercise:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ%3ASPY&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=13&id=p29081165081
Thanks for that chart Matthew. What threw me off was you mentioned the weakness in the conventional markets was to blame for the weakness in the miners and Silver, and as discussed, weakness in the conventional markets should be bullish for the miners.
Sorry about the confusion. I did say RELATIVE weakness but I should have made it clear that I meant relative to gold. The miners, GDXJ/SIL, did practically no better than gold but rose more than 2% versus SPY. Without the “plunging” stock markets, I have no doubt that the miners and silver would have performed much better versus gold.
Gotcha. That makes more sense.
I don’t see anything worrisome yet.
GDX:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p08808409212&a=514184409
I’m not too worried, but that is a black candle which could mark a reversal back down. Overall, I’d have postulated that there would be a bit more juice to the upside in the miners considering how well the metals have held up and kept rising.
When the miners sell off on a day where metals are rising, it just has me on high alert.
I’m glad the remaining 14 cent GDXJ gap got filled today but GDX has been more stubborn and still has an 11 cent gap.
That may be part of it as well on the technical side. Once again the fundamentals have been superseded by the technical set up (not a surprise as technicals set the pace, but just a bit counter intuitive action today).
There’s still plenty of bearishness even among wannabe bulls so I think it makes sense that the bears would make an effort at the 50 day MA (and that many profit-booking bulls would trim there as well).
If the bears can’t get a decisive edge by the close, then they will likely end up being fuel for tomorrow’s rise.
That works for me 🙂
$hui’s 100 day ema relative to the 200 day ema is extremely critical in defining bull vs bear. Very rarely is there a negative cross during a bull, and if there is just barely. Well we did get a very slight negative cross after the last correction and currently the 100 day ema is about 1 pt below the 200 day ema. For GDX the 100 day ema is 1 cent above the 200 day ema. To say this is a do or die juncture for the miners is not an understatement IMO.
Actually, looking back at $hui and gdx and excluding 2008, their 100 day ema’s never crossed the 200 day ema save for 2004. That cross in 2004 came just after the start of a 2 year period of consolidation. If anything close to that played out now, we would be looking at around August 2018 before we make a new high.
I won’t be surprised if the yen is over 100 by the end of the year…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24XJY&p=W&yr=7&mn=3&dy=22&id=p67555767760&a=489358284
Bo Polney…………gold to $2000 by May …………..unlike armstrong calling $1000 to 700 gold…..Bo is calling “the bottom is in.”…..just reporting jootb
Here’s what good ole’ Bo thought in 2014: (he’ll be right eventually….ha ha…. 🙂 )
http://www.silverdoctors.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/Summer_Low_2014.jpg
I’ve seen a few of his interviews and he appears to be a little “off” in my opinion.
just a little …..”off”……lol
He’a been more than a little off for years….. 😮
As it relates to his psychology, just look at his eyes in those photos…..
All I can ever think of when looking at Bo is this guy from Spaceballs:
:)…… I guess his guru rating is suffering…….
His “cuckoo rating” is going through the roof though.
I need to be careful on calling for a jubilee…..so I do not get associated with Bo….lol
ending the FED, will be the jubilee……
Yes, when I hear Jubilee it gives me flashbacks to Bo’s dire Shemitah drivel.
I think Trump was the Sh me tah… to the demo drivel
I still haven’t decided what Trump is, but he is the king of Debt, so it’s possible they’ll create such an unserviceable debt balloon that the only option left is a a Jubilee.
That would concern me as well, because the globalists may start their rally for a global currency again if the Currency Wars rage on…. (really bad idea & their master plan).
Remember……the debt was not created by Trump, but you know that. I just added this in case the democrates happen to be reading….. 🙂
Yes, each president has been increasing the Debt more and more regardless of their associated political party (Regan, Bush Sr., Clinton, Bush Jr., Obama, …. and now Trump). Record debt was going to pile on no matter who was elected, unless Congress decides NOT to raise the debt ceiling and make sizable cuts to many more programs than Trumps “skinny” budget.
There is a point where the rest of the world will call out the USA on it’s insane debt load, but until then it is business as usual…… Just keep spending…. Just keep spending….
$hui’s 100 week ema has not even crossed positively over the 200 week ema. It is possible we do get an absolutely explosive move higher in a very short period, similar to what happened in late 2001, which will finally get those MAs to cross.
A months worth of europhic gains lost with a few hours. Many investors likely had no chance to react if they wanted to.