Richard Postma - The Doctor Is In – Thu 20 Apr, 2017

The Trend of Higher Intraday Moves for US markets

With US markets recovering today Doc and I discuss the higher intraday moves we are seeing. We also revisit our conversation yesterday about the new correlation between gold and US equities.

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Featuring:
Richard PostmaCory Fleck

Comments:
  1. On April 20, 2017 at 11:37 am,
    Silverdollar says:

    On topic of gold, here are some fabulous pictures from Deep South, a mine in South Africa owned by Gold Fields: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/photo-essays/2017-04-20/gold-fields-south-deep-mine-digging-two-miles-underground

    • On April 20, 2017 at 11:49 am,
      Bonzo Barzini says:

      I live above ground in the Deep South. I graduated Magnolia Cum Laude and was voted “Most likely to secede.”

      • On April 20, 2017 at 12:04 pm,
        Matthew says:

        😮 +1!

      • On April 20, 2017 at 12:56 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        Funny Bonzo Barzini

        PS – I wrote to you on Doc’s market wrap on yesterdays blog (towards bottom)

        http://www.kereport.com/2017/04/19/markets-gold-moving/

        • On April 20, 2017 at 12:57 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          Well, more in the middle actually.

        • On April 20, 2017 at 3:07 pm,
          Bonzo Barzini says:

          Excelsior, thanks for posting the KLDX interview from Zurich and for calling it to my attention as I missed it yesterday. Welcome aboard. Now I want to buy more KLDX after selling CDE@9.78 Should I buy more KLDX or get into Auryn or USAS which I don’t own yet? KLDX looks more tempting to me, but I’m not as smart as Matthew.

          • On April 20, 2017 at 3:42 pm,
            Matthew says:

            Klondex is very oversold so it might provide a better short term opportunity than Americas Silver but, longer term, I’d be surprised if it is able to return comparable gains.

            I don’t like that Klondex broke down from the fork support that I pointed out last week but this could still be a low or close to it.

            http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=KDX.TO&p=D&yr=1&mn=2&dy=0&id=p24760400946&a=517735054

          • On April 20, 2017 at 4:06 pm,
            Matthew says:

            Owing to its success over the last several years (it became relatively richly valued), I think Klondex is poised to underperform its peers during the next move up.

            However, if gold were to surprise us with significant weakness before the next move up, Klondex is likely to fall quite a bit more than many of its peers.

            It has been in a bull market for years:

            http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=KDX.TO&p=W&yr=4&mn=2&dy=0&id=p21582127681&a=519193700

          • On April 20, 2017 at 7:54 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Bonzo – Glad to share, and yes I felt that KLDX video (well both videos) posted yesterday were worth reviewing.

            Matthew – I agree with your assessment as well that Klondex became to richly valued over the last few years, but is oversold at present (some of that is due to these GDXJ outflows) and some seems just unwarranted. It’s chart looks bad, but it will likely provide a bounce in the near term. I like the fundamental drivers for KLDX Klondex in the mid term, and feel they have a lot going for them, but I may only be in for a swing trade for most of the position, and then just leave a small core position in place on the exit.

            Longer term I completely agree that (USAS) Americas Silver should outperform on a percentage basis and it is one of my favorite Silver & Zinc stocks. With the amount of Zinc & Lead they’ll be producing this year and the ramp up of San Rafael in the 3rd & 4th Quarters, I truly believe Americas Silver is going to put on it’s dancing shoes in the second half of 2017, but really 2018 should be a show-stopper year for it.

          • On April 20, 2017 at 11:02 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Bonzo – I just saw the last part of your message again, that you don’t own any USAS yet. It is against my beliefs to tell anyone else what to buy, as all investors have to come to those conclusions based on their own due diligence, risk tolerance, time horizon, jurisdiction preferences, market cap preferences, liquidity preferences, and macro views of Gold, Silver, Zinc, Lead, Copper….

            Personally I see Americas Silver as one of the best turn around stories in the Silver mining space the last few years and I’ve been following the story for years, since the Scorpio mining days, then into the merger with US Silver & Gold, then the cost controls/new mining approach/new strategy that emerged as Americas Silver, and a successful track record of management executing on initiatives and guidance since then.

            What I find interesting is their present strategy to ramp up the Zinc & Lead production this year while those prices have been screaming higher, and save much of their high grade Silver for better prices (they are still going to produce Silver but they are letting those levels flat-line, but will still participate in any upside in the Silver pricing).

            That strategy resonates with what I want to see other Silver companies doing in this market set up, and make hay while the Zinc/Lead sun is shining, and keep back some of their better Silver resources for ensuing higher prices as the bull market starts to move higher over the next 12-18 months.

            The real game changer for Americas Silver is when San Rafael comes online later this year, it will begin to drive their cost from $9-$10 down to $2-$3 and that particular mine will actually have negative costs due to the base metal credits. That is quite a set up for them moving into 2018, so if the market starts connecting the dots later this year, I planning on being well positioned in front of that. It is already a nice sized Silver/Zinc mining position for me, but I’ll likely be adding to it on any weakness over the summer season.

            For homework, I’d start with digging into their last 2-3 years of press releases, quarterly reports, maps, comparing them to their peers across a few different metrics, ascertain your view of Silver/Zinc/Lead prices, and it may paint the picture better by pulling up a longer term chart to see where it’s been in better cycles (when it didn’t have near the portfolio of mines and development/exploration projects that it holds currently).

            Another recent plus is that USAS just recently picked up another advanced development property off Santa Cruz Mining – as they were trying to transfer this over to Hochschild and the deal was in a stalemate. Americas Silver swooped in and grabbed it up (which really helped Santa Cruz clear a path forward as well) and got Hochschild off the hook. Anyway, the point is that they have many catalysts over the next 2 years that will ultimately further transform the company.

            ___________________________________________________________________________

            Here is the recent VIDEO Corporate Presentation from the European Metals Forum:

            Americas Silver Corporation
            April 6, 2017 – Zurich, Switzerland – European Gold Forum
            Darren Blasutti – CEO

            http://www.europeangoldforum.org/egf17/company-webcast/USA:CN/

          • On April 20, 2017 at 11:05 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            (USA) (USAS) Americas Silver Corporate Presentation (Slidedeck)

            [This goes along with the video linked above]

            http://wsw.com/webcast/egf17/usa.to/presentationDownload.pdf

          • On April 21, 2017 at 7:32 am,
            Bonzo Barzini says:

            Matthew and Excelsior, thanks for you thoughts about USAS. I guess I’d better look at it closely. The thing I like is about KLDX is I think they will find more gold at their sites in NV and Canada, and I feel more comfortable there than in Mexico.
            Do either of you own Auryn yet?

          • On April 21, 2017 at 8:35 am,
            Excelsior says:

            I hold both KLDX and USAS at present and like them both for different reasons.

            If people want exposure to Silver-focused production, then most of Silver miners are operating at least one branch of their business in Mexico. There are exceptions like Alexco & Mandalay Resources of course, or Brixton Metals, Dolly Varden Silver, and Klondike Silver as a few explorers focused in Canada (no near-term production from those, even though both Brixton and Klondike Silver have past producing mines and infrastructure on their property – so they are like brownfields exploration).

            As for Auryn, I have swing-traded it, don’t hold it at present, but have it on my short list of gold explorers. Actually, I have big short list of Gold explorers 🙂

          • On April 21, 2017 at 8:38 am,
            Excelsior says:

            BTW on Americas Silver – at least half their current business is in Idaho if that makes you feel a little better (the prior US Silver and Gold assets & producing mine in the Galena Complex).

            But their other mines and properties are focused on Mexico for sure (and rightly so).

          • On April 21, 2017 at 9:49 am,
            Matthew says:

            Fwiw, I have no reservations at all about Mexico in general.

      • On April 20, 2017 at 2:25 pm,
        RICHARD/DOC says:

        BB; I thought I would let you know I purchased some NAT today—they came out with their quarterly dividend and it was the same as last quarter—20 cts/ share. I’ll watch the pricing closely and exit if I don’t like the pricing. I figured they didn’t sell off on last quarterly’s dividend announcement and so why should they this time around.

        • On April 20, 2017 at 3:10 pm,
          Bonzo Barzini says:

          Thanks, Doc. The CEO of NAT did buy a lot of shares at around 8 so maybe you did the right thing. Doc, do you own Auryn or USAS yet?

        • On April 20, 2017 at 10:45 pm,
          Bob UK says:

          Thanks Doc.

  2. On April 20, 2017 at 11:39 am,
    Silverdollar says:

    Comment on the conventionals: I think some big shorts were cornered, then slaughtered unmercifully today……….JMO.

  3. On April 20, 2017 at 11:46 am,
    CFS says:

    OFF TOPIC:
    VALENCIA, Venezuela (AP) — General Motors announced Thursday that it was shuttering its operations in Venezuela after authorities seized its factory in the country, a move that could draw the Trump administration into the escalating chaos engulfing the South American nation amid days of deadly protests.

    The plant in the industrial city of Valencia was confiscated on Wednesday as anti-government protesters clashed with security forces and pro-government groups in a country battered by economic troubles, including food shortages and triple-digit inflation. Three people were killed and hundreds arrested in the deadliest day of protests since the unrest began three weeks ago.

  4. On April 20, 2017 at 11:47 am,
    Silverdollar says:

    Off topic: Anyone know the route one should take to get in on this game? Sure beats trying to figure out where stocks are going! -:)
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-04-20/bill-o-reilly-said-to-get-payout-from-fox-of-almost-25-million

  5. On April 20, 2017 at 12:07 pm,
    CFS says:
  6. On April 20, 2017 at 12:09 pm,
    CFS says:
  7. On April 20, 2017 at 12:30 pm,
    Jason says:

    All I know Doc is I have been getting my BUTT KICKED on metals this week. Made a few bucks on DUST but still red for the week. Been playing both sides with no luck.

  8. On April 20, 2017 at 12:48 pm,
    OOTB Jerry says:

    All markets stink……….