VIX and Silver Comments
With the VIX close to some long term lows Rick Ackerman is taking a position with his subscribers (in the VXX). He shares the details why he thinks now is the time. We also discuss the silver price which has been in free fall over the past 2 weeks.
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Beneath The Surface – May 2, 2017
The VIX can rise in a strongly rising market, as long as volatility picks up.
The most dramatic example if this is 1996-2000. VIX went up and the US markets went to the moon.
With the US stock markets, its heads I win tails you lose. It has been this way since 1980.
The Nasdaq hasn’t even really gone dramatically above trend yet. It has a long long way to go.
2016 was an incredible sucker’s rally in the PMs, which coincided directly with the yen rallying after getting smashed for 4 years. It may have been one of the greatest sucker’s rallies in history at least for the mining stocks.
The Fed has said growth will pick up next Q. It will. That alone will be enough to lift the Dow to 25,000+ this year. Gold is going to get slammed over the next few months. Silver is going to break dramatically below its 200 month MA.
As long as the Fed stays on a tightening path relative to the BoJ, capital will continue to flow into US assets. Period. I defy anyone to challenge that thesis.
In any event, it is heads I win tail you lose with US equities. Fed QE lifts US stocks. Fed tightening lifts US stocks, as long the BoJ stands pat or loosens. The Fed has backed the US stock market explicitly. There is no bubble anywhere. This is the most hated stock bull in history. Unemployment extremely low. Inflation non-existent. Commodities are at 40+ year lows. Stock market making new highs every day. The Fed has done a masterful job. The free money is right there in front of you. Are you too stupid to pick it up?
Spanky:
There is no bubble anywhere? Really? How about the largest bubble ever created in the history of mankind? Here’s a clue Spanky,ITS CALLED THE DEBT BUBBLE.
Debt and deficits don’t matter. As long as the Fed, BoJ and ECB have a printing press and the US military and nuclear arsenal at their disposal, there will be no problems.
They know they are on their last legs, which means the game will continue on for far longer than anyone can dream.
Sure, I am not telling you not to take some of your ill gotten gains from AMZN and GOOG buy some gold. But you sure as hell are not going to be getting rich off gold. And the mining stocks you can make money off of it you get *extremely* lucky with your buys and sells and stock picking. Look at AUY for god’s sake–it’s gone absolutely nowhere over the last 2 years now, but it has been an excellent trading vehicle if you timed your entries and exits perfectly.
Spanky:
Debt and deficits don’t matter? Don’t kid yourself there Spanky. Debt always matters as it becomes a drag on productivity.
Debt is the polar opposite of freedom.
You have to look at the participants that are pushing this market higher,once they get the “stupid public” sucked in, they will become the sellers.
+1 JohnK
Ask the Greeks how they feel…….someone is going to pay….Have to agree with JOHN K on this one….
the only way it will not matter…..is if people figure out and call a JUBILEE……which is not going to happen.
Furthermore the statement you made that “if you get extremely lucky” does not surprise me.
Luck does not factor into the equation when it comes to consistently making money in the mining stocks.
Consistently being the operative word here.
Sure once and a while we get lucky,I would rather call it being in the right place at the right time.
Only through hard work and perseverance will you profit in the market.
There is a reason why 10% of the traders consistently make money and 90% don’t.
Very well said JohnK. You’re on a roll today…
Debt ceiling raised by approx $ 1 trillion or $ 4 million per second ,seems to me implies that Trump intends to crash the economy.
Yes, but what’s another Trillion here or a Trillion there amongst friends? 😮
Until we get into the Quadrillions, nobody will blink an eye.
What would the founding fathers think of us now……….like stupid……
Nice bull flag on the Dow.
Over the next month or two, the Dow:$gold ratio is going to explode over the 200 month MA. Anyone long gold/gold stocks and not in conventional equities is going to feel it.
here is a good one to watch if you can see it. It’s Gold Corp’s monthly chart and it is in a huge pennant formation with the top rail going all the way back to 2012. The bottom rail is in the low 13’s, so we are pretty much there:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GG&p=M&b=5&g=0&id=p04044080290&a=521462204&listNum=1
Rick was on last week telling us his thoughts on gold bottom. So we shoot thru that number by a couple bucks and this week you completely ignore the forecast.
Not a big miss so far but you would think that would be the lead
I think that was the best 15 minutes I’ve heard on KER over the last 18 months.… I’ve definitely not heard a better description of the conventional markets.
BUT I’m still going to BUY more silver if it drops back into the 15s.
Not ‘hopeful’ but convinced its a going to be a good place to be in 2 or 3 years.
Geez silver is getting creamed here. A good ol cascade slide down in play here. Its negated its uptrend for the year and how, falling some 60 cents below that upward trend. Its looking oversold bigtime so hopefully it gains some solid footing soon. Gold is holding okay in my mind.
Rick nails it.”Hopeful is the last refuge of the loser.”
Rick refers to the market as “Mr Market”, with the unpredictability of the market it surely must be Ms. Market.
For Silver I think you have to look at who is pushing the Silver market.Is it the day traders or beyond the day traders?