KER Commentary – Sat 17 Jun, 2017

Big Al’s Panel at the Cambridge House Show – Rick Rule, Frank Holmes, Brent Cook

Here is the live recording of the panel Big Al moderated at the recent Cambridge House show in Vancouver. With an all star lineup of Rick Rule, Brent Cook, and Frank Holmes there is a lot of great information shared by all.

 


Featuring:
Rick RuleBrent CookFrank HolmesAl Korelin

Comments:
  1. On June 17, 2017 at 7:12 pm,
    CFS says:

    Thank you for posting this.

    • On June 18, 2017 at 7:23 am,
      Excelsior says:

      There are many great videos up from the Cambridge House show that I recommend checking out, [and that have been getting posted all week here on the KER.] πŸ™‚

      I was going to re-post this Video of the Big Al, Brent, Rick, Frank panel, but had already posted the Audio file of it 3 times on the KER and nobody ever responded, so I figured people had gotten their fill of it already.

      Regardless check out all the other Cambridge House videos:

      https://www.youtube.com/user/cambridgehouseintl/videos

      • On June 19, 2017 at 6:49 am,
        Ulf says:

        Thanks Excelsior, for the link!

      • On June 19, 2017 at 10:31 am,
        Big Al says:

        48 comments this time. Thanks for posting the links previously.

        A

  2. On June 17, 2017 at 8:26 pm,
    Ebolan says:

    Great job, Mr. Big Al Korelin! You’re a star, a star I tells you!

  3. On June 17, 2017 at 8:32 pm,
    Ebolan says:

    Can’t go wrong quoting Matthew.

    • On June 18, 2017 at 8:29 am,
      Matthew says:

      Thanks Ebolan, the check’s in the mail. πŸ˜‰

      • On June 19, 2017 at 10:32 am,
        Big Al says:

        I believe that mine is also!

        • On June 19, 2017 at 10:39 am,
          Matthew says:

          Yes sir, that is correct!

  4. On June 18, 2017 at 9:29 am,
    CFS says:
  5. On June 18, 2017 at 9:30 am,
    CFS says:
  6. On June 18, 2017 at 9:31 am,
    CFS says:

    Bix Weir, Happy Father’s Day:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Vpb-D6GGgU

  7. On June 18, 2017 at 9:45 am,
    CFS says:

    erman Foreign Minister Sigmar Gabriel told Sunday’s Welt am Sonntag newspaper that “maybe there is now a chance to achieve a so-called ‘soft Brexit.'” But he said staying in the single market would require Britain to accept EU workers’ freedom of movement.

    It also would have to accept the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice, “or at least a joint court that is staffed by Europeans and Britons” and in principle follows the ECJ’s rulings, Gabriel said.

    For many Brexit advocates, those conditions would be impossible to accept as last year’s referendum campaign focused on getting back control over laws and immigration from the EU.

    Gabriel said “it would naturally be best if Britain didn’t leave at all.”

    • On June 19, 2017 at 10:33 am,
      Big Al says:

      I kind of support the stance of the U.K.

  8. On June 18, 2017 at 10:29 am,
    CFS says:

    Watch this and then consider the treasonous behaviour of Hillary in permitting the sale of US Uranium companies:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gfvAIor53Ig

    Hillary’s tax evasion and Pay for play NEEDS investigating.

  9. On June 18, 2017 at 10:46 am,
    CFS says:
  10. On June 18, 2017 at 10:53 am,
    CFS says:

    Why did gold/silver go down;
    When will gold/silver next go down?

    There was a stock option expiration for June on this Friday past.

    There will be a COMEX option expiration for the precious metals on June 27th, which is the Tuesday after next.

    There are no non-manipulated markets………yet.

  11. On June 18, 2017 at 12:41 pm,
    Dick Tracy says:

    Interesting discussion, Brent Cooke’s remarks on Mirasol Resources was a flash from the past and one that had slid under the radar. DT

    • On June 18, 2017 at 6:34 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      They’ve been on the Mirasol bandwagon for some time and have been fans of their Prospect Generator strategy. They are a solid exploration company, but there are prospect generators like $RZZ $GZZ $EMX $MRO $MLN $ALS etc… that I like more.

      • On June 19, 2017 at 6:43 am,
        Dick Tracy says:

        Thanks for your input, Ex.

      • On June 19, 2017 at 10:25 am,
        Wolfster says:

        Starting to grow impatient with gzz.Feel like I’m misjudging something based on where it trades in relation to all their holdings. Also 10.75M warrants @ .14 will obviously be exercised before they expire by the end of November

        • On June 19, 2017 at 10:44 am,
          Matthew says:

          For what it’s worth, Reuters rates GZZ poorly on “relative valuation” giving it a 1 out 10.
          It scores well on risk with 6 out of 10 — which is probably better than most similar juniors (my Galane Gold gets a 1 while Imapact Silver gets a 4).

          • On June 19, 2017 at 12:44 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Interesting stats from Reuters. I don’t give those much thought as most analysts have a hard time doing comparables on thinly traded Jr miners, as they aren’t like blue chip stocks, and often pick odd companies as peers, but still worth noting.

          • On June 19, 2017 at 1:25 pm,
            Matthew says:

            The relative valuation is based on fundamentals so thin trading doesn’t matter and the peer companies are provided so you can adjust your assessment of the info. The ten closest peers are selected based on market cap so that obviously leaves a lot to be desired but, for analytical types, there’s plenty of worthwhile info to compare with peers of one’s own choosing. There are also comparisons with multiple groups/sectors. For example, Primero gets a 3 for its earnings while the Metals and Mining Group and the Mineral Resource Sector each get a 5.4; the Micro Market Cap gets a 5 and the TSX Comp. Index gets a 6.3

            Primero’s score of 3 seems deserved or even generous considering the company’s 2.1% gross margin. The Metals & Mining Industry group average is 16.2%.

            Leverage has a recipe and fundamentals/valuations matter a great deal when looking for it.

          • On June 20, 2017 at 3:56 am,
            Excelsior says:

            I guess my point was many of these services will track things like stock momentum (which can be absent on very thinly traded stocks) or earnings (most explorers/developers have no earnings) or market caps (which as you mentioned can turn on a dime dramatically on a percentage basis when the share prices decides to soar or plummet). I give the overall market cap & book value of Jrs less importance than I would on a larger tech company or blue chip bank or manufacturer. I am much more interested in drill results on explorers, capex/NPV/IRR/payback period on a developer, or how many ounces produced at what cash costs/AISC/margins on a producer.

          • On June 20, 2017 at 4:16 am,
            Excelsior says:

            The other thing to consider with miners like Explorers or Developers or even turn-around Producers is not their market caps today or earnings per share today, but rather, what track are they on to take actions that will build positive investor sentiment (which is a factor in all markets, but in particular the fickle resource investors that can pile into a stock or run for the exits on the slightest news update).

            Those kinds of 10-30% daily moves are far less common in stocks like Oracle or GE or Intel etc…. Also, the market caps of large companies like a Walmart or Tractor Supply company won’t pivot up 20-30% in a week or two as we see with highly volatile Jr miners.

            To each their own, and the more data and comparable info (as long as it is relevant) the better…. but many standard fundamental valuation tools fall flat on such volatile stocks. Also, some of these Jrs will flat-line for a month or so, and then put out drill results and spike up 50-100% in a week or two, so the valuation from one week to the next can go all over the map. Now, on the larger more stable and liquid companies with regular daily volumes, regular production, regular cost, and a trending quarter over quarter business operations then using standard fundamental data analysis is much more useful and on target.

          • On June 20, 2017 at 8:09 am,
            Matthew says:

            Metrics like price/book and price/sales are valuable as long as the comparisons are as “apples to apples” as you can get and as long as you are good at quantifying other differences. For example, when I was selling GORO years ago in the $25+ area, its P/B was over 30 (!) but I’m sure it got so high because it was a cash cow paying a big dividend so P/B was not a meaningful/useful metric. On the other hand, if you are looking at two equally unexciting explorers in the same political jurisdiction that also have similar balance sheets, then favoring the one with the lower P/B can often be the way to, not only limit downside, but increase your upside. I recently trimmed a lot of USA while its P/B was 1.3-1.4 so that I could buy more IPT in the .9-1.0 P/B area. USA is now much lower but IPT is not and the same could have been done to buy SSRI which was as cheap as IPT and has also held up better than USA.

            Looking at GZZ, I generally agree with Reuters. It is safer than most but is also slightly steep for what you get at this time (in a weak environment). RZZ is also a little steep in my book. Speaking of comparisons, Gold Mining, Inc looks very unappealing when compared with another Brazil play that shall go nameless. It appears to be what I would call a FOMO promo (Fear of Missing Out promotion).

          • On June 20, 2017 at 8:58 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Matthew – Good thoughts and feedback on price/book and price/sales. I do appreciate reading your thoughts on how you value companies, and that was an interesting analogy on GORO or your comments on USA versus IPT for example. Much appreciated.

            As for RZZ and GZZ they have the royalty on the Canadian Malartic mine (the largest recent gold mine in Canada that Yamana and Agnico eagle bought off Osisko Gold Royalties). That is going to continue to be such a cash cow that they actually both deserve a higher valuation than they currently carry. The marketplace just doesn’t realize what Golden Valley/Abitibi are really sitting on with just that component. They also both have a fair bit of shares of a number of other companies including Yamana and Agnico Eagle that the marketplace is not fairly valuing.

            Here is some data a friend just sent me recently for example:

            It seems to me that $GZZ should be trading north of 50 cents. A basic review of their holdings bring us to 60 plus cents. This without considering NPV for existing royalties or its land assets.

            % or #shares MrktCap or SP Total
            49.54% $52,540,575.45 49.6% interest in Abitibi Royalties Inc.
            44.49% 1840000 $818,616.00 Nunavik Nickel
            22.36% 2520000 $0.56 Uranium Valley Mines Ltd.
            100.00% 0 0 Calone Mining
            519480 0.485 $251,947.80 BonTerra
            3549695 3.12 $11,075,048.40 Yamaha
            335497 62 $20,800,814.00 Agnico Eagle Mines
            4148374 0.32 $1,327,479.68 Soi
            Total $86,814,481.89
            Estimated NAV Value 0.65

            I’d add in that they have the option agreement now with both $AZX and $MTA.AX that will be bringing in more cashflow and shares in both companies, now that $GZZ has optioned properties to both of them.

            If anything $GZZ needs to double from where it is now to even get to fair value, and that doesn’t account for what will happen if there are better discoveries on their JV projects or in a rising Gold/Silver price environment.

          • On June 20, 2017 at 9:19 am,
            Matthew says:

            I am aware that GZZ is trading below the current price of its marketable security, but that probably indicates that the market considers those positions to be overvalued. RZZ, for example, has a P/E of 71.4 and a P/B of 2.9 while SAND, on the other hand, has a P/E of just 22.4 and a P/B of .8 – both are obviously significantly better numbers than RZZ’s.

          • On June 20, 2017 at 9:27 am,
            Matthew says:

            As far as the charts go, GZZ looks ready for a bounce on the daily while the weekly suggests a period of consolidation and the monthly points to an extended period of consolidation/underperformance.

          • On June 20, 2017 at 9:29 am,
            Matthew says:

            I do not own SAND, btw, and, to my knowledge, neither does anyone I know personally.

          • On June 20, 2017 at 9:35 am,
            Matthew says:
          • On June 20, 2017 at 10:09 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Thanks Matthew for the feedback on $RZZ and $GZZ. I like $GZZ better because aside from owning half of $RZZ, they have all the other JVs, shares, and strategic positions mentioned above. $GZZ should always trade at nice premium to $RZZ but the marketplace hasn’t connected all the dots yet, and there are times where they are valued near the same (which makes no sense).

            I’ve owned SAND off and on, like Nolan Watson, and actually owned them again earlier this year until they took over Mariana Resources. I didn’t quite grasp that move entirely, and it seems like a bigger risk than I wanted in a Streaming & Royalties company, so I sold on that news.

            It may turn out to be brilliant, but I migrated over into other streaming and royalty companies instead for the time being.

          • On June 20, 2017 at 1:58 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Based on that chart you posted, SAND looks ready to resume it’s uptrend though.

            It may be worth parking some money there for the technical rebound over the next few months. The issue is there are a number of good set ups on the charts for Gold & Silver companies that may grow much more on a percentage basis.

          • On June 20, 2017 at 3:54 pm,
            Matthew says:

            I think SAND will enjoy more than a technical rebound but I don’t own it because I agree that others offer more upside. That’s why I currently don’t own any royalty plays at all.

          • On June 21, 2017 at 6:51 am,
            Excelsior says:

            I’ve been dumping profits in a number of #ProspectGenerators and #Royalty companies like $GZZ $EMX $MRO and $MLN while the masses are still ignoring mining companies and precious/base metals for the most part. In a couple of years I expect these companies to trend gradually higher, like the streamers, and be more resilient to downside shocks, due to their diversification.

            Like we discussed in the past they are good “Profit Dumpsters” for more of a steady climb, but not necessarily to always out perform a high throttle Explorer or High Risk turnaround story. πŸ™‚

            GZZ did quite well for a prospect generator/royalty co last year and at one point was up 250-300%. Not amazing compared to the Silver stocks or certain explorers, but still outperforming many Major and MidTier gold companies or ETFs that many investors feel comfortable hanging their hats on with large sums.

            (MLN) Marlin Gold is one that has outperformed most miners, and It is my favorite Prospect Generator & Royalty co / Producer-Developer.. They have a streaming deal on one JV and 2 Royalties on their other two JVs, but also have a very sexy gold mine throwing off cash, and an even more intriguing Development stage project.

            Also their share float is crazy at only 15% as 85% is held by Wexford Capital. Check out their chart:

            http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=MLN.V&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p63065528597

        • On June 19, 2017 at 12:50 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          Wolfster, I’ve had a few people writing me in private about how low the valuation is for $GZZ considering all the equities they hold, as well as the NSRs, projects under option, etc… Golden Valley is a bargain here, but investors have a hard time getting their head around all their different JVs and what work is being done on each one. Personally, I don’t expect it’s share-price to perform like a one-trick-pony exploration company on the upside, but likewise they don’t have the downside risk exposure either (due to their diversification).

          • On June 19, 2017 at 1:47 pm,
            Wolfster says:

            Either way I’m I a foul mood today and gzz’s not helping. πŸ˜‚

          • On June 20, 2017 at 3:58 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Well, for me $GZZ is more of a passive investment in their JVs and future royalties, and that is how I feel about many prospect generators.

            For the big movement this summer & fall, I look towards explorers with active drill programs that will have great hits, marginal hits, or dusters…. πŸ™‚

  12. On June 18, 2017 at 11:05 pm,
    CFS says:
  13. On June 18, 2017 at 11:09 pm,
    CFS says:
  14. On June 18, 2017 at 11:16 pm,
    CFS says:
  15. On June 18, 2017 at 11:17 pm,
    RayC says:

    Big Al is the man … that is all.

  16. On June 18, 2017 at 11:25 pm,
    CFS says:

    David Davis likely to replace Theresa May as Prime Minister in UK.

    (Not much better in my opinion, but there is a lack of good choices.
    Boris is a character, but tends to have divided and highly polarized support and opposition.

    • On June 19, 2017 at 3:36 am,
      Archdeacon (!) Andrew says:

      I agree CFS – Davis way more switched on and pro-active. That said there really seems to be a conspiracy to dethrone Theresa. She may not be charismatic but she has I feel a good heart.

      • On June 19, 2017 at 3:44 am,
        CFS says:

        May is not forceful enough over Brexit.
        Probably already too, thanks to the multicultural propaganda by the BBC.
        (Don’t get me wrong. I’m pro-assimilated immigration…..just anti-culture replacement, because I believe the contemporary Middle East culture is inferior to “British” culture ethically , morally.
        https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/10525/europe-population-replacement

        • On June 19, 2017 at 9:11 am,
          b says:

          inferior morally?

  17. On June 19, 2017 at 3:32 am,
    CFS says:

    BEIJING (AP) β€” Climate change, trade and terrorism were high on the agenda Monday at a Beijing meeting of foreign affairs officials from Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, known collectively as the BRICS nations.

    The five countries are seeking to further align their views on key issues at a time when President Donald Trump is withdrawing the U.S. from multilateral arrangements such as the Paris climate accords and the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal.

    Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said China in the coming year would look to “expand with more broad and wide-ranging cooperation in areas such as trade and commerce and investment.”

    Together the BRICS countries account for roughly 40 percent of the world’s population and 20 percent of the global economy. All five countries are members of the Group of 20 industrial and emerging-market nations, although their economic prospects have declined somewhat amid crises in Brazil and South Africa and the impact of sanctions lodged against Russia by the West.

    • On June 19, 2017 at 3:44 am,
      Archdeacon (!) Andrew says:

      Thank you Al – a real privilege to gain an insight into your Cambridge House meetings. Good also to hear too how you gave acknowledgement to Matthew and b. Furthermore, I love the idea of betting on ‘seven foot’ jockeys delivering the goods overtime.
      Rick Rule is so right when speaking of a sort of dread in the event of gold reaching $5k. For who wants a pay-out on a calamity of any kind, even though in some form or other it looks inevitable?
      A really big thank you for this., A

  18. On June 19, 2017 at 3:51 am,
    CFS says:
  19. On June 19, 2017 at 8:18 am,
    Matthew says:

    “Don’t be afraid of this, use it as your opportunity,” Frank Holmes of US Global Investors, said recently. “Because some of these stocks have been sold down indiscriminately when they are reporting phenomenal fundamentals.”

    Holmes is right. some of these stocks are reporting phenomenal fundamentals.

    https://seekingalpha.com/article/4082220-best-oversold-stocks-gdxj-rebalance

    • On June 19, 2017 at 9:15 am,
      b says:

      I thought multiple miners that are profitable at $800 or less gold price were posted here at ker some time ago.
      If I recall, one was profitable at $600 gold.
      Forget which one tho.

      • On June 19, 2017 at 9:36 am,
        b says:

        10 mines still making good money if the gold price falls 50%

        The top 10 ranking of the lowest all-in cost gold mines in the world – former US president Herbert Hoover was once in charge of no. 8 on the list.

        read Β»

        • On June 19, 2017 at 9:45 am,
          b says:

          1. Novoshirokinskoye
          2. Voro
          3. Blagodatnoye
          4. Lagunas Norte
          5. Verninskoye
          6. Belaya Gora
          7. Otjikoto
          8. Gwalia
          9. Akyem
          10. Agbaou

          Dont believe Mr Cook,Holmes or Rule have mentioned these, one or two or more maybe? produce more than a million onces.
          ur own dd pays sometimes.

          Anyone with the means just might want to look into which market these are on, ifn ya figure golds on its way up.

      • On June 19, 2017 at 9:41 am,
        Matthew says:

        I can’t rattle them off either but I’m sure that’s correct.

        • On June 19, 2017 at 9:52 am,
          b says:

          I didnt post these before, the list I was talking about being posted previously were all N american companies.

          I dont have that list anymore.

          • On June 19, 2017 at 9:55 am,
            b says:

            o, probly goes without sayin now, but personally I would be a little leary of anything in s africa, I do believe I mentioned that a month or so ago.
            Once this 30% black ownership gets worked out might be a time for lookin there again.

          • On June 19, 2017 at 10:19 am,
            Matthew says:

            Yes, my comment was in response to your 9:15 post. I’ve never heard of any on your list.

            SA is a Marxist horror show.

          • On June 19, 2017 at 11:00 am,
            b says:

            if you have the ability to get on other markets some of these might be worth looking into.
            jim rogers has been saying russian markets were interesting for awhile.
            venesuala paid off big too.

          • On June 19, 2017 at 11:07 am,
            Matthew says:

            I do have the ability to trade over 20 markets but my willingness to buy large, safe producers at the start of a bull market is in doubt. I prefer to look for more leverage since I’m not a billionaire.

          • On June 20, 2017 at 4:07 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Yes, there are still some mines that would be profitable at much lower Gold prices and many are Russian or African (which get very little interest from N. American audiences). That also doesn’t mean that the whole company would be profitable though, just that particular mine.

            I had posted that article back in February and was following companies like Highland Gold, Polyus, B2Gold, Endeavour etc….. but they are a bit too large for my liking.

            There are smaller miners that have good AISC on their properties that weren’t mentioned like Alacer in the mid $600’s or how about Mexus in the $450 range. Silvercorp is in the $4-$6 per Silver ounce range, or once San Rafael comes on line Americas Silver will be in the $3-$4 per Silver eq ounce range (with the Zinc/Lead credits)

            There are plenty of Gold miners in the $600-$800 AISC range that were not listed on that article, but I don’t want to go through them all to list them, but many corporate presentations have them clearly listed.

            One thing to be aware of though is that if fuel prices rise, if foreign currency exchanges are adjusted, and in general if labor costs go up, then this will raise their AISC and squeeze margins.

            _______________________________________________________________________

            Since we don’t usually talk about Polyus…… Here’s a quick recent update:

            Russian Gold Billionaire Testing Foreign Waters With Share Offer
            by Yuliya Fedorinova and Ksenia Galouchko
            June 15, 2017, 4:13 AM CDT

            – Russia’s biggest gold miner to sell shares in Moscow, London
            – Offering of 7%-9% stake values Polyus as high as $9 billion

            https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-15/russian-gold-billionaire-testing-foreign-waters-with-share-offer

  20. On June 19, 2017 at 8:19 am,
    CFS says:
  21. On June 19, 2017 at 8:22 am,
    CFS says:
  22. On June 19, 2017 at 8:42 am,
    CFS says:

    Mariana shareholders approve Sandstorm merger

    2017-06-16 08:21 ET – News Release

  23. On June 19, 2017 at 9:00 am,
    CFS says:

    off topic:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QBmeDLe_ftA

    beats flying a kite.

  24. On June 19, 2017 at 9:16 am,
    CFS says:
  25. On June 19, 2017 at 10:14 am,
    CFS says:
  26. On June 19, 2017 at 10:42 am,
    CFS says:
  27. On June 19, 2017 at 10:43 am,
    CFS says:

    https://youtu.be/oL9QtkpPm5E

    paul craig roberts

  28. On June 19, 2017 at 10:44 am,
    GH says:

    “The authorities are unwilling and incapable of prosecuting jihadists in Britain because the British state [like the US] has been allied with them abroad.”

    http://www.middleeasteye.net/columns/how-end-216384012

    • On June 19, 2017 at 11:25 am,
      CFS says:

      The English people may well start to take things into their own hands and civil society will break down if they are not careful.

      • On June 19, 2017 at 12:42 pm,
        GH says:

        The English people, like Americans, have been standing by and sucking their thunbs while the serious terrorists, their own leaders, have fomented Islamic terrorism to further their neo-imperial agenda and MIC profits. I would love to see the English and Americans get a clue, but am skeptical.

  29. On June 19, 2017 at 10:48 am,
    Matthew says:

    Gold should find quite a bit of support in the 1243-1241 area:

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p05972425724&a=530213544

  30. On June 20, 2017 at 10:53 am,
    spanky says:

    $indu:$gold ratio about to break out. Moonshot on the US stock market incoming probably accompanied by a collapse in gold.

    Commodities, yen, gold, silver headed for the drain of the toilet (they are already in and circling the toilet bowl now). Yellen is laughing her a$$ off at the hard money crowd and idiots like Peter Schiff (and me).