Valuable Insights from Around the Web – Wed 21 Jun, 2017

Small-Cap Investors Have Never Been So Complacent

I am currently stuck in the Seattle airport because all flights seem to be delayed which already made me miss my connection. I figured I could re-post this article from Dana Lyons focused on investor complacency. Let’s remember that large cap investors have been extremely complacent this year with  he VIX (S&P volatility index) trending around 30 year lows. Now we are seeing small cap investors join the complacent camp as Dana outlines below.

Click here to visit Dana’s free blog for more great insights.

Volatility expectations in the small-cap space just hit their lowest level on record.

We are not the first to note that one of the hallmarks of the latest stage of the bull market in U.S. stocks has been extremely subdued volatility (the recent tech wreck, notwithstanding). Articles covering the historically low levels of the S&P 500 Volatility Index, or VIX, have been commonplace. Subdued volatility expectations are not unique to large-cap stocks, however. It has been a characteristic of other assets, like bonds and gold, as well as other areas of the equity space, such as European and small-cap stocks.

Specifically, regarding the latter, volatility expectations in the small-cap space recorded their 2nd lowest closing reading on record last Friday, based on the Russell 2000 Small-Cap Volatility Index (RVX). At 14.06, the only lower reading since the inception of the RVX in 2006 was 13.65 on March 14, 2013.

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Now, it’s no secret that markets top amid low volatility. Such low volatility can correspond to investor complacency. However, it should also be well understood that low volatility expectations do not necessarily mean that a top is imminent. The low-volatility environment can persist for awhile prior to any serious price declines. So how concerning really is this all-time low in small-cap volatility expectations?

In a premium post at The Lyons Share, we take a stab at identifying just how much of a concern this RVX reading is by studying prior low extremes, in conjunction with other conditions in the Russell 2000, and notint the subsequent performance of the index.

If you want this “all-access” version of our charts and research, we invite you to check out our new site, The Lyons Share.

_____________

Disclaimer: JLFMI’s actual investment decisions are based on our proprietary models. The conclusions based on the study in this letter may or may not be consistent with JLFMI’s actual investment posture at any given time. Additionally, the commentary provided here is for informational purposes only and should not be taken as a recommendation to invest in any specific securities or according to any specific methodologies. Proper due diligence should be performed before investing in any investment vehicle. There is a risk of loss involved in all investments.


Featuring:
Dana Lyons

Comments:
  1. On June 21, 2017 at 12:51 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    Here are a few press releases from Tinka to Zinc about….

    https://www.tinkaresources.com/news

    • On June 21, 2017 at 2:22 pm,
      Blue says:

      I really like Tinka! Its come down nicely from the highs of about 0.80 cad. Now trading at 0.55-0.59 cad and still expanding their resource bit by bit. You only have to be patient and buy the dips. Close your eyes and look next time in the fall, hopefully the shareprice will be much higher:)

      • On June 21, 2017 at 3:07 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        I had some on the move up but trimmed it back to just a small position, and just added a bit of TK today. Really, I could see it falling back a bit more, for a slightly better price to acquire more, but not much because they keep putting out fantastic drill results and I believe there are more assays to be announced soon.

        I have a half dozen Zinc stocks now, but Tinka has been a better performer than many of their peers because they’re having one hell of a good exploration campaign. Good stuff! (can barely close my eyes…. hahaha!)

        • On June 21, 2017 at 3:15 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          It looks like the 89 day EMA may have held as support and after a few days of confirmation I decided to wade back in, but if it gets tested and breaks then I’ll add another tranche a the 144 day EMA. However, things were pretty oversold and just barely started turning back up.

          http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TK.V&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p50736768012

          • On June 22, 2017 at 1:57 am,
            Blue says:

            Looks like a bullflag ready to launch, probably before the zone 3 results. Very interesting summer for Tinka, if the zincprice could inch up to 1,5 it could be jackpot!!

          • On June 22, 2017 at 7:36 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Bingo.

        • On June 22, 2017 at 2:04 am,
          Blue says:

          I follow a very interesting and very new zincplay called Fireweed zinc

          https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=co1ADSkE_CQ&t=6s

          • On June 22, 2017 at 7:36 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Yes, I know the CEO Brandon. He’s a regular poster on ceo.ca and a good guy.

            https://ceo.ca/@brandon

          • On June 22, 2017 at 7:42 am,
            Excelsior says:

            They have 2 older known deposits that they are putting back into focus with modern exploration.

          • On June 22, 2017 at 7:44 am,
            Excelsior says:

            @Brandon – “For example, the Jason deposit at our project is a plunging syncline (and Tom is an anticline):” — 13 Jun 2017

            http://cdn.ceo.ca/1ck04im-JasonSyncline.JPG

          • On June 23, 2017 at 5:30 am,
            Blue says:

            I like the tight sharestructure and that it is an unknown zincplay for most of the investors. This kind of investments tend to be more speculative and a lot volatile. The best way to do it is to buy small tranches several times and then have patience. The zinc bullmarket is digesting right now and its perfect to buy into this small exploration companies. When the drill programs are starting to accelerate my feeling is its gonna heat up the whole sector. John Kaisers $ 2 /lb is a dream but it really only needs $1,3 lb for most zincprojects to feel good.
            Ex i think you will do really fine with your investments, you have a good strategi in investing and finding good opportunities and are often ahead of the crowd. Sometimes i feel you are too good , I mean you have to many companies on the radar, hehe, I can only invest hard at a couple of juniors at the time. Its the investing climat today its to volatil and the goldjuniors have just started their bullmarket by going up and then going down and really testing the investors patience. If you like to be involved 24/7 and read everything and follow every move your favourite junior is making you’ll go nuts. Buy and hold and do something good with your life and let the bull do the work for you. Until the bull shows up for real you have to take profits to survive. When the bull is here you can buy and hold.
            The zinc bull is here so Im buying and holding easier said than done 😉

    • On June 21, 2017 at 3:26 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      (SCZ) (SZSMF) was a nice mover today on their good news. It is nice to see the marketplace starting to respond to positive news-flow again.

      ________________________________________________________________________

      Santacruz Silver Announces Agreement to Consolidate 100% Ownership of the Veta Grande and Minillas Mineral Properties
      June 21, 2017

      http://www.santacruzsilver.com/s/news_releases.asp?ReportID=793384

    • On June 21, 2017 at 7:27 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Merger and acquisition on First Cobalt’s playlist
      Cobalt explorer out to consolidate historic camp properties 3
      6 h by: Northern Ontario Business Staff

      “Toronto-based First Cobalt wants “to create one of the largest cobalt exploration companies in the world,” starting in northeastern Ontario.

      First Cobalt is proposing a merger with Australia’s Cobalt One (formerly Equator Resources) to consolidate the two largest land packages in the historic Cobalt camp into one entity with more than 10,000 hectares.

      Under the proposed agreement, Cobalt One shareholders would own 60 per cent of this entity with First Cobalt shareholders owning the remaining 40 per cent.

      First Cobalt would become the sole owner of the Yukon Refinery in North Cobalt. Previously the two companies had signed an option agreement on June 1 to become 50/50 joint venture partners in the mill.”

      https://www.northernontariobusiness.com/regional-news/northeastern-ontario/merger-and-acquisition-on-first-cobalts-playlist-649872

      • On June 21, 2017 at 7:32 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        Upon further reading and verifying with other investors, this actually appears to be a 3 way merger because First Cobalt is also taking out CobalTech, but first has to finish acquiring CobaltOne.

        Here is a little bit more from the article above:

        _________________________________________________________________________

        “In a surprising move, First Cobalt appears to have quelled a simmering dispute among junior miners in the camp.”

        “First Cobalt announced it has signed a non-binding letter of intent (LOI) to acquire all of the issued and outstanding shares of CobalTech.”

        “Only weeks ago, CobalTech had threatened to sue Cobalt One over the failed sale of the Yukon Refinery to CobalTech.”

        “CobalTech has 11 former mines near the town of Cobalt, including its flagship Duncan Kerr project, eight properties in Quebec and its Werner Lake East Cobalt property near Kenora in northwestern Ontario. The company also owns a 100-tonne per day mill in town.”

        “CobalTech inherited almost 6,600 tonnes of silver and cobalt-rich crushed material left behind on surface when it acquired the former Kerr and Lawson silver mines last fall.”

        https://www.northernontariobusiness.com/regional-news/northeastern-ontario/merger-and-acquisition-on-first-cobalts-playlist-649872

        • On June 21, 2017 at 7:34 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          On a related note….. considering this Silver/Cobalt camps and First Cobalt…..

          More recent news:
          _____________________________________________________________________________

          BRIXTON METALS TO SELL ITS NON-CORE MINING CLAIMS IN THE COBALT CAMP, ONTARIO
          June 7, 2017

          $BBB Brixton Metals Corporation is pleased to announce that it has entered into an asset purchase and sale agreement with $FCC First Cobalt Corp., to sell 100 percent interest in Brixton’s non-core mineral claims located in the Cobalt Camp, Ontario, Canada. The 22 claims cover approximately 848 hectares. The agreement provides that $FCC First Cobalt will pay $BBB Brixton $325,000 cash.

          Chairman and CEO of Brixton, Gary R. Thompson stated, “These non-core claims were not contiguous to Brixton’s Langis or Hudson Bay properties. The divesture of these claims allows Brixton to focus on our wholly owned Langis and Hudson Bay past producing, high-grade #silver – #cobalt mines within the Cobalt Camp.”

          http://brixtonmetals.com/brixton-metals-to-sell-its-non-core-mining-claims-in-the-cobalt-camp-ontario/

          • On June 21, 2017 at 7:37 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            So it appears once all this finalizes that First Cobalt will have it’s original assets + Brixton’s non-core Cobalt properties + CobaltOne will be acquired + CobalTech will be acquired all under one roof.

            Very interesting merger of 3 smaller companies and some extra properties into a new entity that may actually have a shot at working out.

    • On June 21, 2017 at 11:17 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Revised South African charter poses threat to miners, says Moody’s
      Reuters | about 9 hours ago

      “Ratings agency Moody’s warned on Wednesday that new regulations seeking to accelerate black ownership in #SouthAfrica’s mining industry would deter investment, raise costs and diminish cashflow generation.”

      “Anglo American, AngloGold Ashanti, Gold Fields, Petra Diamonds, Sibanye Gold and South32 would be the most negatively affected miners if the revised mining charter is implemented, Moody’s said.”

      “The government published its revised mining charter on June 15, raising the minimum threshold for black ownership of mining companies to 30 percent from 26 percent.”

      “The higher Black Economic Empowerment equity holding requirement is credit negative because it will likely require miners to use cash or raise debt to facilitate the equity transfer,” Moody’s said in a statement.

      http://www.mining.com/web/revised-south-african-charter-poses-threat-miners-says-moodys/

  2. On June 21, 2017 at 1:49 pm,
    b says:

    small cap investors complacent?
    can ya blame em?

    They have been told “to the moon” for years, which was all bs, they have been lied to, played like chumps.
    Then they see the dow, artwork,bitcoin, collectables really go “to the moon”, all the while being told “stack the shiny” good time to buy.

    Complacent? well duh.
    the entire industry should have been telling the truth, the actual reasons for owning metal.

    The truth is what people could understand, maybe now they wont believe at all.
    Jr investors might have to wait for the momentum buyers.

    Course Im just talking of western buyers, the rest of the world dont care what we think.

    • On June 21, 2017 at 2:46 pm,
      Matthew says:

      The Russell 2000 is up well over 100% since the 2011 low. THAT’s where the complacency comes from – optimism. More gains are a forgone conclusion. The kind of complacency that results in a low VIX is never the result of something as negative as being “played like chumps” or having been lied to (and knowing it).

      As an aside, it makes perfect sense that the small caps haven’t outperformed the Dow because the healthy economy is smoke and mirrors. If the bull moves were underpinned by a sound economy, then small caps would almost certainly be outperforming the blue chips.

      • On June 21, 2017 at 3:47 pm,
        b says:

        ive asked a few people that invest.
        pms are niche for a reason.

        best opinion they have is “sure. pms spike”

        ask oleary (billionare investor) what he thinks of jr mining investing and he is not alone.
        he at least understands 5% phyzz ownership, most dont, all people hear is “to da moon”
        meaningless garbage.

        example is First Majestic, “silver should be $130” what many people hear is bla bla bla
        today @ zh.

        Im not disparaging PM investing or the miners, but I know why I own phyzz and
        understand Im gambling on miners.

        Heck, if a vegas hotel put the miners on a board there would be more PM “investors”.

        People need to be educated, specifically about no counter party risk and why, when that happens more people will own pms, to da moon any moment now = scam, people stay away or wish they had.

        • On June 21, 2017 at 9:06 pm,
          Matthew says:

          The article above is about conventional small caps, not junior miners.

          As for O’Leary’s opinion and that 5%, both are completely useless and meaningless. Just do what suits you and know what you’re doing. Juniors aren’t for everyone and neither is that 5%. Some portfolios need upwards of 30% and some need none. It all depends on what else you own, what your risk tolerance is, and what your objectives are.

          Ibbotson Associates performed a study on the subject and concluded that 7 to 15% is justified just for strategic and hedging purposes and that other considerations justify a much heavier allocation. To claim that 5% is right for everyone is absolutely absurd.

          • On June 22, 2017 at 5:11 am,
            b says:

            5% is not meaningless, he is saying a portfolio needs an allocation to gold.
            Obviously there are many “studies” and opinions as to how much.

            I guess you never did hear what oleary had to say about jr miners.

            Doesnt really matter, it was just funny.

          • On June 22, 2017 at 6:29 am,
            Matthew says:

            If investor A is 40 years old and has a portfolio full of commodities related investments and farmland and investor B is 60 years old and has nothing but conventional equities and rents his home, which one do you think needs more than 5%? Which one might need none?

            5% is an arbitrary number that has a completely different meaning from one situation to the next.

          • On June 22, 2017 at 7:02 am,
            Bonzo Barzini says:

            I think 50% in gold and silver makes sense now.

      • On June 21, 2017 at 10:22 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        Good points Matthew. The reason the larger cap blue chips are doing well is that they’ve been borrowing money at close to zero to pay dividends, buy back their stock, and have had a horde of institutional investors parking money in them.

        If the economy were truly healthy for the business sector, I agree that the small caps would have outperformed the DOW. The real sickness under the surface is distorted by a handful of large gainers in the DOW, S&P and Nasdaq that give the impression that all is well….

  3. On June 21, 2017 at 2:12 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    Russia Developing ‘Omnivorous’ Complex for Reprocessing Any Type of Nuclear Fuel
    21.06.2017

    “The Russian state nuclear corporation Rosatom’s Mayak plant by 2020 aims to become the first enterprise in the world to have mastered the technology for reprocessing any kind of spent nuclear fuel, Dmitry Kolupaev, the plant’s deputy CEO on strategy development, told Sputnik Wednesday.”

    https://sputniknews.com/science/201706211054843753-russia-rosatom-mayak-nuclear-fuel/

  4. On June 21, 2017 at 2:34 pm,
    OOTB Jerry says:

    Flash crash on ethereum…….96% down then up…..$315 down to $13……..zh

    • On June 21, 2017 at 3:51 pm,
      b says:

      excellent news Ex.

      Eth flash crash eh, well, a few people have been calling cryptos “toppy”

      bet bix and gang are saying “good time to buy” wonder if that webot thingy predicted that. lol

      • On June 21, 2017 at 6:03 pm,
        OOTB Jerry says:

        i am reserving my comments on Bix, but, I think or believe he is making a good living on posting junk on utube……………jmo

    • On June 21, 2017 at 5:05 pm,
      Ebolan says:

      Just heard their re-naming the crypto ephemeral. 🙁

  5. On June 21, 2017 at 4:22 pm,
    Chartster says:

    The new crypto on the scene is mood coin. It’s a block-chain pet rock that is made of mood ring elements. When it’s green you buy, and when it changes color to red, you sell. The mood element measures the mood of the investor, so when it turns turd brown, it’s time to sell. Makes it easy to chart.

    • On June 21, 2017 at 5:15 pm,
      JohnK says:

      Where were you 3 and half years ago when I bought into Bitcoin Eddy?

    • On June 21, 2017 at 6:06 pm,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      you have to be an old fart , to remember “mood ring”…………. 🙂

      • On June 21, 2017 at 7:17 pm,
        Chartster says:

        Haha, ..yea.

        • On June 21, 2017 at 8:33 pm,
          JohnK says:

          Seems to me that those who continually negative post on the cryptos are the ones who missed the train.
          Instead of coming out and admitting they missed the train,the only defense left is to criticize those who didn’t.
          I posted here on the K E report when I bought into Bitcoin.I did it as a comparison as to venture companies verses Bitcoin. Two of the mining stocks I bought were First Finance with a cost basis of 16 cents and Osisko Mining with a cost basis of 48 cents.
          Like I posted to Bob M. If your going to skydive,first you have to jump out of the plane.
          Control R, Control R, Control R . $$$

          • On June 21, 2017 at 9:28 pm,
            Matthew says:

            John, I think it goes without saying that those who are negative missed the train. Many were negative from the beginning which is why they missed the train in the first place.

            As a speculative play, I’ve never had a problem with it. My negativity towards it comes from all the comparisons to gold. It can never come close to gold as a safe haven asset; that’s just a fact.

          • On June 21, 2017 at 10:18 pm,
            JohnK says:

            I agree with you Mathew that as a safe haven asset Bitcoin cannot compare to Gold.That being said, Bitcoin cannot be manipulated the way Gold is by cash settlements in the Comex, different margin requirements for the commercials,and when commercials are grandfathered in with their positions.

          • On June 22, 2017 at 8:11 am,
            Robert Moriarty says:

            JohnK:

            I owned Gold Canyon with a basis of $.095. And after First Finance offered $.35 for them told investors to buy at $.205. Investing isn’t rocket science.

            http://www.321gold.com/editorials/moriarty/moriarty090315.html

            But you aren’t going to make a cent on Bitcoin until you sell and you do not want to sell a day late.

          • On June 22, 2017 at 8:42 am,
            JohnK says:

            Hi Mr Moriarty:
            I will be the first to admit that sometimes being lucky is better than being smart.
            The Bitcoin I bought was for my kids, not me.
            I have to give you kudos when you posted that you owned physical palladium.At that time I purchased physical palladium and I have never looked back.

          • On June 22, 2017 at 10:49 am,
            Robert Moriarty says:

            JohnK:

            Bitcoins have a use-by date that isn’t printed on the package. If you love your kids, buy stuff for them when it is cheap and sell it when it is expensive. That’s true of everything. There are limits to Bitcoin but there are no limits to crypto-currencies any more than there are to tulips.

          • On June 22, 2017 at 11:21 am,
            JohnK says:

            Mr Moriarty:
            I find it fascinating how you and others keep referencing the Dutch Tulip Bulb Mania as a reference to Bitcoin.
            First I will repeat that I did read The Extraordinary Madness of Crowds.
            Of all the scams that have been perpetuated throughout history ,why is this one most commonly used when arguing Bitcoin.
            Some insignificant little country during the 16th century,really?
            How about the scams perpetuated upon us by the DEA and the CIA?
            Bitcoin is a worldwide paradigm shift in how the populace is espousing what they think of the Elected officials and the deep state running our lives.
            Bitcoin isn’t coming out of favor anytime soon.

          • On June 22, 2017 at 12:56 pm,
            Matthew says:

            John, it’s probably the price action that leads people to compare BC to the tulip mania. Like BC, it displayed the typical “madness of crowds” – not a scam.

            The tulip mania took place in the 17th century and I don’t think historians would agree that Holland was some insignificant little country at the time.

            I’d like to see the miners go tulip mania and I don’t doubt that they will.

            http://www.newworldencyclopedia.org/entry/Dutch_Empire

          • On June 22, 2017 at 1:39 pm,
            JohnK says:

            Hi Mathew:
            The peak of the mania was 1637.
            The reference to the tulip mania is a function of human nature to explain a circumstance that cannot be explained by referencing an event in the past.
            CNBC rolled out Dennis I never made a bad call Gartman June 3rd to discredit Bitcoin referencing the Tulip Mania also.
            I have the utmost respect for Mr Moriarty,but on this one he is dead wrong.
            The millenials are the drivers,they are the future.
            We are the Dinosaurs.
            The more I hear the so called experts opine on Bitcoin,the more Bullish I become.
            For the record on a percentage basis the shares of Osisko Mining have out performed Bitcoin as of this posting.

          • On June 22, 2017 at 4:54 pm,
            Matthew says:

            -Yes, 1637 was the peak and the sixteen hundreds was the 17th century just as last century was the 20th and the current one is the 21st.

            -Human nature hasn’t changed since 1637. Nobody thought that tulips would collapse either. It’s the same in every mania — gold in 1980 and the Nasdaq in 2000 are included. There are plenty to choose from but the tulip mania is more widely known and understood because of the clear insanity of the prices being paid for a single bulb.

            -If we look at BC’s entire history, it’s up about 50,000%. No recent miner comes close as far as I know.

            Both BC and miners rise and fall based on sentiment, but at least miners that skyrocket due to a discovery have their gains supported by something tangible and cannot be expected to give all the gains back. Remember Aurelian’s Fruta del Norte project? Despite Kinross deciding to sell it for about 25% of what it had paid, it was still worth a fortune compared to the project pre-discovery. The same might not be true of BC if (when) it runs into trouble.

            I’m sure the Bitcoin supply is limited, as claimed, but the number of competitors that could spring up is unlimited. That may not affect BC’s utility but it could be horrific for its price.

          • On June 22, 2017 at 5:31 pm,
            JohnK says:

            Mathew: Bitcoin already has lots of competitors. In fact a whole new trading platform has been formed with all the cryptos. I will admit this is something that I didn’t see coming.
            Originally it was the lower transaction fee associated with Bitcoin that sold me.
            What Bitcoin has going for it is transparency.Everybody at all times knows exactly how much Bitcoin is out there and how much more Bitcoin is to come. Something the currencies and even the shiny metals cannot do.
            As more Bitcoin is mined,the process of obtaining Bitcoin becomes inherently more difficult.
            The meteoric rise of Bitcoin is just a testament of what is to come.
            OK I may be a dreamer,I have always been a dreamer. I was a dreamer when I bought Mart Resources at 4 cents off a scan I developed long before Jay Taylors sidekick Chen Lin started promoting it with people paying him nicely for his advise.
            The only problem then I didn’t know what I was doing.
            I am long Bitcoin,I didn’t buy Bitcoin to trade. I bought into Bitcoin never to sell,but to give it to my kids when I move on from this planet.
            So far so good.

          • On June 22, 2017 at 6:16 pm,
            Matthew says:

            Well, hopefully my concerns won’t materialize and you leave million dollar Bitcoins to your kids.

            It will be interesting to see how governments intervene along the way.

        • On June 22, 2017 at 6:32 pm,
          JohnK says:

          Mathew:
          As you can tell I’m not worried.
          What is the government going to do? Which government?
          Bitcoin is a global phenomenon. China has already banned the use of Bitcoin,how is that working out? Never in the history of the world has there been anything like Bitcoin. Therefore there are no comparisons.
          Your right Mathew, we’ll just have to wait and see.

  6. On June 21, 2017 at 5:03 pm,
    Ebolan says:

    These people better be careful if they don’t want to wind up part of the Clinton body count.

    http://wjla.com/news/local/read-new-report-released-on-seth-richs-murder-investigation

    • On June 21, 2017 at 6:04 pm,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      hilly will be listed as a fang dealer………lol

    • On June 21, 2017 at 8:40 pm,
      JohnK says:

      Why stop there Eddy? How about the Bush body count? Say What ?

  7. On June 21, 2017 at 5:29 pm,
    CFS says:
  8. On June 21, 2017 at 6:11 pm,
    OOTB Jerry says:

    Trump out stumping in Iowa………….the guy is back on the street…..wake up America, things are different.

    • On June 21, 2017 at 6:14 pm,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      Trump promoting ethanol ………….making american product great……….

      • On June 21, 2017 at 6:15 pm,
        OOTB Jerry says:

        Renewable energy………

        • On June 21, 2017 at 6:16 pm,
          OOTB Jerry says:

          This is a cross over political advantage…..where the demos promoted this under Jimmy Carter……..

          • On June 21, 2017 at 6:19 pm,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            You have to go to Fox News to get the real news……….russell…… 🙂

  9. On June 21, 2017 at 7:24 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    Charts of the Day: Warning Signs For the Stock Market
    June 21, 2017 – The Hedgeless Horseman

    – BIG divergence between the stock market and the underlying fundamentals:

    – Margin debt at all time highs:

    – “Irrational exuberance” indicator at highest point since at least 2001:

    – “To sum up: There are bubble warning signs pretty much everywhere one bothers to look. This market is fueled on speculation (“Greater fools”), debt and hope. Everything of course made easier by the record amount of central bank liquidity pouring in, chasing yields. With financial institutions, pension funds and all kinds of investors getting basically ZERO yield from fixed income, is it a surprise that PE rations have been pushed up to bubble levels?”

    http://www.thehedgelesshorseman.com/market-flash/charts-day-warning-signs-stock-market/

    • On June 21, 2017 at 8:05 pm,
      Dick Tracy says:

      If there is a sudden drop watch out for forced selling if the broker’s start calling in the margin players.

      • On June 21, 2017 at 10:12 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        Yep, then outflows go from a trickle to a waterfall….

    • On June 21, 2017 at 8:55 pm,
      JohnK says:

      Hi Shad:
      I have to give credit to Cory on this one, he has been all over it.

      • On June 21, 2017 at 10:11 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        Hey JohnK,

        Yes, Cory has been covering the macro economics and divergences like a champ.

        Cheers!

  10. On June 21, 2017 at 9:07 pm,
    JohnK says:

    Physical Gold looking real good here.Notice the flattening of the MACD Histogram.
    If the histogram turns up ,it will have done so from a higher level than the previous low posting a positive divergence with the current downtrend in price
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD

    • On June 22, 2017 at 12:15 am,
      Excelsior says:

      JohnK – We’ve discussed Klondike Silver in the past and I thought you may enjoy this latest video from Tom.

      _____________________________________________________________________________

      $KS $KLSVF Klondike Silver with CEO Tom Kennedy
      #Silver #Lead #Zinc Milling Complex in BC
      Cambridge House – Jun 8, 2017 VIDEO Corporate Presentation

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kh4bkDXQG-w&t=1s

      • On June 22, 2017 at 8:14 am,
        JohnK says:

        Klondike Silver along with many others has been put on sale again. Savy investors with deep pockets will once again begin buying bargain shares.
        The advent of ETF’s has changed the investing/speculating landscape for sure,That being said,at some point the market will once again recognize these stocks for their ounces in the ground and re assign new value. When this happens excited amateurs will be the buyers and you know who will be the seller.
        To reap the harvest first you must plant the seeds. See investing is easy.
        Farming 101

        • On June 22, 2017 at 10:16 am,
          Excelsior says:

          I love it – Farmining 101.

          It sounds like the plan for (KS) is to keep updating and repairing the underground adits so they can carry out drilling form underground starting in September. They are also flying over with VTEM work to identify good exploration targets. Right now is a lull period for them but Aug/Sept/Oct should be much more newsflow and be a nice catalyst, so right now is a good time for gradual accumulation.

  11. On June 22, 2017 at 12:11 am,
    Excelsior says:

    Global Blast-Off Trade Setup
    By: Chris Vermeulen | Tue, Jun 20, 2017

    http://www.safehaven.com/article/44538/global-blast-off-trade-setup

  12. On June 22, 2017 at 6:09 am,
    OOTB Jerry says:

    palladium $881…..price is very close to platinum $930……strange……jmo

    • On June 22, 2017 at 7:41 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Volkswagen is switching to gasoline cars over diesel, and the Russian stockpiles that have fed the markets for over a decade are mostly drained now.

      Also, many manufacturers started working to replace Platinum with Palladium when there was a bigger delta between the two. As a result there is a growing Palladium demand and waning Platinum demand.

      Regardless, I expect Platinum to make up some ground on Gold and Palladium over the next 6-12 months.

      What is really counter-intuitive is how depressed the PGM miners are with nice Palladium exposure in the face of these market conditions. Big time disconnect.

      • On June 22, 2017 at 8:02 am,
        OOTB Jerry says:

        I think you are correct on “I expect Platinum to make up some ground…”

      • On June 22, 2017 at 8:18 am,
        Robert Moriarty says:

        Supply and demand really do work even with even platinum and palladium. The car people started moving to palladium when the ratio was 4-1. Platinum is denser and more effective even in gasoline engines so when the ratio goes near 1-1, platinum becomes the cheaper alternative so the historic spread will resume in time.

        If you look at the platinum/gold spread charts done by Nick Laird, every time the discount goes to $340 negative, it bounces.

        http://www.goldchartsrus.com/gold/spreadchartgcpl.php

        Platinum “should” go higher relative to gold and silver is cheap relative to gold at 75-1. A short palladium/long platinum spread would make a lot of sense. History is history for a reason. People never change.

        • On June 22, 2017 at 10:21 am,
          Excelsior says:

          Agreed on the short Palladium, long Platinum spread now that the ratio is closing in on 1:1. Platinum, as you mentioned is more effective in catalytic converters, but when the ratio was 4:1 and 3:1 manufactures were looking for ways to save.

          Same thing with imbalance in the Gold:Platinum spread being so out of wack. The markets will return to the mean.

          Yes, people never change….. the madness of crowds 🙂

    • On June 22, 2017 at 7:58 am,
      JohnK says:

      The rise in Paladium is interesting.The question is what is driving this?
      Could it be more breakthroughs in cold fusion not yet reported ?
      Three elements required for anti gravity.
      1 Telerium
      2 Geranium
      3 Paladium.
      And don’t forget aluminum for your spiffy new hat.

      • On June 22, 2017 at 10:28 am,
        Excelsior says:

        The biggest reason for Palladium’s rise was as a substitution for Platinum, but as was mentioned above, now that they are closely priced, manufactures will become more interested in Platinum again for the added efficiencies. Platinum is more popular in jewelry and coinage as well.

        Both Noble Metals have growing uses in Medical & Dental tools and in electric vehicles in the batteries and electronics. I remember listening to an audio interview with the management team at Jubilee Platinum where the EVs will actually use 2-3 times the PGMs as electric cars. They are processing Platinum tailings and have had a number of battery makers and Electric Vehicle companies contacting them to start securing supply sources, so that is another parallel demand driver.

        As for Aluminum & Tinfoil for my spiffy new hat…. here are few ideas….

        https://www.google.com/search?q=tinfoil+hat&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjg34rx_NHUAhVKdD4KHaGQCSMQ_AUICigB&biw=1280&bih=666#imgrc=_

        • On June 22, 2017 at 10:33 am,
          Excelsior says:

          correction: EVs will actually use 2-3 times the PGMs as (Gas/Diesel) cars

        • On June 22, 2017 at 11:02 am,
          JohnK says:

          To funny Shad !
          You know I had to put that out there.
          Ever since I went to the Public Library and couldn’t find one single book on Nicholas Tesla, I have been wearing the hat.
          The one picture missing is the tinfoil hat on the computer,representing the Algo’s and A I running our markets.