Trader Vic – Now is the time to be extremely conservative
Trader Vic doesn’t believe the numbers we are getting from the government. How can Q1 GDP be revised the whole way from 0.7% initially up to 1.4% currently? With large cap stocks starting to decline Trader Vic thinks they could be telling us something about future market moves.
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I always have time for Trader Vic.
Straight shooters with timely commentary is a rare commodity these days.
The most refreshing part to me is that Trader Vic is an accomplished author yet he doesn’t come on the K E report to promote his books.
Hi John, your last line conveys a common sentiment that I don’t share. What’s wrong with an honest person promoting a good or service that he has worked hard on and is proud of?
The anti business attitude that has grown in the U.S. in recent decades only undermines society.
+1 Matthew.
People are so critical of someone promoting their book or website. Here’s a clue for the entrepreneurial haters…… They come on the show and offer their insights, stats, technical analysis, fundamental analysis, and perspectives for FREE. If they want to plug a book, course, or website, that is their incentive to keep coming on the show. Deal with and be thankful that they share anything with us. Good grief!!
Shad:
Good Grief? Really.
Really.
That wasn’t all directed at you JohnK. There have been a number of posters whining about the occasional book promotion, or special course promotion, or the plugging of their conference or event, and most people fail to understand the Law of Reciprocity. They come on the show and share valuable content, and simply want the chance to bring more awareness to what they are working on. That’s what makes the world go round….
Shad:
I came upon Trader Vic as a reference from another author and realized this was the trader Vic that comes here and gives us commentary.
I kept waiting for Vic or Cory to mention his books and they never did.
So I did.
Thanks Trader Vic.
Thanks JohnK. I agree with your comments below that Trader Vic is a solid contributor here, and has a number of works interested investors should check out.
Cheers!
Good comments, Ex. It shouldn’t need to be pointed out but KER exists to make money as well. Does that diminish the content? Of course not, just the opposite, in fact.
agreed.
I think Trader Vic is great and he can promote his books whenever he wants. And if Doc wants to promote his books, that’s OK with me too.
Yes Doc’s book should be out this Autumn:
“How I survived Poison Ivy and Renovated my Home with itchy trigger fingers on the PM markets”
Everyone should take a nibble when it comes out….. 😉
Mathew:
There is nothing wrong with promotion.
Some people do it and some people don’t. Have you heard Trader Vic promote his books?
I’m sure he is more than proud of the body of work he has produced.
To me when someone comes on the KE report and isn’t trying to sell me something,I find it refreshing.
Would that be a character flaw with me,so be it.
Open Source and the contribution of information by others,collectively add to the intelligence of the group.
I have been self employed most of my adult life.I will be the last one to ever criticize someone who signs their own paycheck.
John, what he is doing amounts in these interviews is still promotion. If he provides good content and makes good calls, people will dig into his work and buy his books or whatever else he might offer.
I just really dislike the trend I see in comment sections where people get downright angry because someone has something to sell. Investment experts that sell something are generally more legitimate, not less. The guy with nothing to sell has no financial skin in what he says publicly. The market is the purest democratic force there is and one must work to get enough “votes” to survive.
Oops, I botched that first line.
Mathew:
That was my point. If I think your commentary makes sense ,I will dig deeper and come to my own conclusions. If I think you can make me money I would entertain paying for your services or buying your books.
That was my point about Trader Vic. You just missed it.
That being said I will accept responsibility for not making my self more clear.
John, that’s good to know but not pertinent to why I responded. I simply dislike that so many people have a problem with those who promote what they have to offer. In large part, the negative attitudes toward business is due to programming by the Marxist run MSM/schools/entertainment industry.
It is irrational to be offended by such promotion.
Mathew:
It’s not that I have a problem with those who promote,the problem is when I have to delete their e-mails when I didn’t ask for them in the first place.
This has nothing to do with the Marist run MSM/schools/entertainment industry either you quote.
Just don’t start sending me an e-mail asking me to buy your services.
Truth of the matter is Mathew,99% of the people here are in a different league than myself.
Junk mail, whether real or electronic, is hardly an act of aggression. If you’ve been to many third world countries, then you know that such attempts to sell you something are often made in person. At least you can have yourself removed from a mailing list or simply throw the mail away.
I would not compare an interview with a market expert who’s got a book with junk mail, anyway. Long-time successful traders like Vic generally write books because they have something to say, not because they need the money or expect to make a killing.
“What’s wrong with an honest person promoting a good or service that he has worked hard on and is proud of?” In principle nothing wrong at all. In practice truth and honesty is not entirely in style particularly in the eyes of the powers that be and their faithful sheeple.
In practice, there are plenty of honest people whether you believe it is in style or not. The guys who have nothing to sell are a dime a dozen and usually offer less legitimate commentary.
There will always be faithful sheeple and THEY are the ones that have a problem with business. They apparently prefer forced business arrangements like Obamacare to voluntary ones. Whether they realize it or not, it’s a declaration that they are stupid and need someone else to think for them.
Matthew, have you written a book? I’d like to read it. I am reading the Oxford Book of Essays and can highly recommend the essays in there by Winston Churchill and Robert Lewis Stevenson.
If you add up all the content Matthew has posted here on the KER for years, it would be a Trilogy of Books.
No, I’ve not written a book.
The Governor of The Bank Of Canada is talking about raising interest rates in the next two weeks. Most Canadians are in so much debt and will soon start to feel this effect of currency tightening, it’s amazing how many here don’t even understand the effect that the lowest mortgage rates ever has had on the high cost of housing. Take Calgary real estate which has been hard hit by the oil downturn, still many Calgarians think the worst is over, wrong again! They will find out just how bad things can get along with the rest of Canada when the interest rate for borrowing money starts increasing. DT
Calgary and Edmonton Alberta have always been a story of boom or bust, only this time the boom isn’t coming back. That only leaves them with wheat and cattle and the Calgary Stampede, oh did I say stampede.
The big problem is the hefty prices homes go for these days, about 15 years ago a nice house in a good location in Toronto would cost you $350,000, now many sell for $2.5 million. A starter dump as is home in Toronto starts at $1 million. If mortgage rates inch up those people who bought in the last ten years even at lower prices are in big trouble. DT
Calgary has also had a big price increases and those basement dwellers should stay where they are until this market plays out in 8-9 years but when it comes to real estate most don’t think they just buy with their emotions.DT
Good comments D.T:
Here in the U.S, Libor rates have been on a continual climb from the bottom left hand side of the chart to the top right.
Higher interest rates cannot portend good things for a stagnant economy.
The fireworks show that hasn’t begun yet is the one with President Trump and Fed chair Yellen.
My prediction is rates will go up a bit and that will scare a bunch of basement dwellers into buying with locked in mortgages, after which the rates will stabilize or drop again just to screw them over a bit. I have a pair now and they will be buying this year.
Everyone I know has a decent job. I don’t know how Calgary has done it but we still have a net migration and sit at about 1.3 million souls. Maybe global warming is scaring people up to this colder climate. Our current government will get us down but not out as our backs have been up against the world’s angst long enough and we will succeed in spite of it all.
Good thoughts Dan, calgary…. you’re spot on about raising the rates to get people into panic buying to lock in rates, only to lower them again afterwards….
I am not naive enough to think that everything is roses here but there is an underlying confidence in this city in spite of the lefty spenders that rule for now. If you own too large of a house (I don’t) you will be in trouble.
maybe it due to the “lefty” spending that has people feeling positive.
I dont think it will hit most people until they see jobs going to robots etc.
The lefty spending benefits Edmonton far more than Calgary. There were no lay-offs in the provincial government in Edmonton. I am saying “in spite of” to highlight the entrepreneurial spirit here.
People have to want hand-built items again to counter the robot revolution. The government pension issue is worse IMHO.
I think global warming would be the best thing for Calgary and all of Canada.
Yes, but we are blamed for it too… (;-D
Basement dewellers have it made in the basement. Free lodging, why should they expose themselves to over priced real estate……
I think DT is correct
To get the hell out of the basement… not many people are waiting on their asses here.There definitely has been a slow down here and we could use a price drop but that hasn’t really materialized yet. If we had a net migration out of the city then I could see a huge drop. There is ambition and desire up here.
FWIW this was an interesting podcast on the subject of GDP from a while back
http://www.econtalk.org/archives/2014/04/diane_coyle_on.html#
Diane Coyle, author of GDP: A Brief but Affectionate History, talks with EconTalk host Russ Roberts about the history of GDP, its uses, and its abuses. Topics discussed include the origins of GDP in the developed countries, the challenges of measuring the service sector, the challenges of dealing with innovation and product diversity, whether GDP should be supplemented with other measures of human well-being, and the challenges of dealing with internet-based goods that produce a great deal of satisfaction but make a much smaller impact on measured economic activity.
Silver Bear Completes Re-Domiciliation From Canada to the UK and Provides Management Update
@marketwired on June 30, 2017
https://ceo.ca/@marketwired/silver-bear-completes-re-domiciliation-from-canada
Santacruz Silver Signs Letter of Intent to Sell Gavilanes Project for US$3.5 Million
June 30, 2017 /CNW/ – Santacruz Silver Mining Ltd. (TSX.V:SCZ)
“Continuing with our plan to focus on our producing assets within the Company, management has made the decision to divest the Gavilanes Project,” stated Arturo Préstamo, President and CEO of Santacruz. “The Company is transitioning into a multi-mine Mexican silver producer that we expect will generate solid cash flow as we grow. The monetization of Gavilanes would allow us to further improve our operations on the Company’s two producing assets, and, once completed, will serve to fulfill the remaining obligations under the JMET, LLC facility, thereby unencumbering the Company’s assets.”
Platinum Group Metals raises yet more funds as Maseve struggles
By Brendan Ryan – June 29, 2017
“On June 9 this year PTM reported that Maseve had produced just 2,480oz of pgm during the month of May which it described as “the best monthly level achieved since commissioning.” The milling operation at Maseve was commissioned in March last year and CEO Michael Jones said in July that Maseve was “fully constructed and now in the ramp-up phase of production.”
“In May, Miningmx reported market sources saying that PTM had asked Anglo American Platinum to submit an indicative offer to buy the Maseve mine…”
http://www.miningmx.com/top-story/29929-platinum-group-metals-raises-yet-funds-maseve-struggles/
Northern Shield Appoints New Director and Chairman; Grants Stock Options
June 30, 2017 /CNW/ –
“Northern Shield Resources Inc. (TSXV: NRN) (NSHRF) is pleased to announce the appointment of Dr. Frank Santaguida to the Board of Directors of Northern Shield, subject to TSXV approval. Dr. Santaguida has considerable experience and expertise in Ni-Cu-PGE systems including 15 years with First Quantum Minerals Ltd, Xstrata Copper and Falconbridge. Ltd. He currently serves as Vice President, Exploration of First Cobalt Corporation.”
On a lighter note, do you know what Elon Musk calls his drilling company, “The Boring Company”, I like his sense of humor, the masses will certainly be able to enjoy his social skills. LOL!
DT – Yes, I saw an article recently that he was Boring a hole to create a tunnel in LA. There was some other article I read where he wanted to create a tunnel under the city of Chicago and rethink their traffic patterns. What a character…
__________________________________________________________________________
“Elon Musk’s Boring Company has completed the first ‘segment’ of a tunnel in LA
Musk followed the announcement with a series of tweets professing his love for tunnels”
Found it. He wants to lighten the traffic by tunneling and building a high-speed rail:
_____________________________________________________________________________
Tesla’s Elon Musk eyes O’Hare-Chicago Loop fast-rail link
June 26, 2017 – GREG HINZ
“Is the man who created Tesla and SpaceX the answer to Chicago’s decades-old desire to open a high-speed rail line between the Loop and O’Hare International Airport?”
“In a step that some will consider outlandish and others bold, Mayor Rahm Emanuel’s administration has opened talks with Elon Musk, the West Coast entrepreneur who has built electric-car-producing Tesla into a company with a larger market capitalization than Ford and SpaceX into a company that could take over satellite-launching duties from NASA.”
“Emanuel knows Musk from his White House days, and according to Emanuel’s office, when Musk heard of the mayor’s continuing desire to speed traffic between the Loop and the airport to raise the city’s business profile, he pitched his latest venture: a high-tech drilling firm named—the man has a sense of humor—the Boring Company.”
“In fact, Chicago Deputy Mayor Steve Koch flew out to Los Angeles late last week to personally meet with Musk, and he came back impressed.”
“It was fascinating, really interesting,” Koch told me. “We’re going to try to see if they can make it work here. It depends on the cost, but I’m as intrigued as I’ve been (with anything) for a while.”
Musk’s company claims to have developed a tunnel-drilling technology that can cut construction costs 90 percent or more, because it uses a better drill and because its tunnels are narrower than the usual ones. That’s crucial because high-speed rail operating out of the Loop would have to either use crowded Metra right-of-way out of the Near West Side, run trains through crowded Chicago Transit Authority Blue Line tunnels or create new tunnels that can cost as much as $1 billion a mile in urban areas.”
Chicago is broke…
Musk is dreaming
At least Musk is dreaming. Most only look for the negative in life, and like him or not, at least Elon is always looking for ways to provide solutions.
If only his solutions were viable without government subsidies.
http://www.detroitnews.com/story/opinion/2016/05/09/elon-musk-tesla-crony/84169496/
Crony Capitalist Threatens To Quit Advisory Position Because Crony Capitalism Has Been Disrespected
http://www.redstate.com/streiff/2017/05/31/crony-capitalist-threatens-quit-advisory-position-crony-capitalism-disrespected/
I don’t respect anyone who wants to limit carbon emissions. Carbon is not pollution.
It’s Time to Stop Spending Taxpayer Dollars on Elon Musk and Cronyism
Creating something that people want is how one gets wealthy in a market economy. Sadly, there’s another way to get rich. It’s called cronyism, and it can make billions for the lucky businesses that get government support—whether their products are profitable or not. In the process, the taxpayers foot the bill…
http://reason.com/archives/2016/04/28/elon-musk-crony-capitalist
Ditto Matthew
Mandalay Resources Corporation’s Cerro Bayo Mine Gives Notice of Force Majeure
@nasdaq on June 30, 2017
“This notice suspends Cerro Bayo’s obligations under contracts with these parties due to the flooding of the Delia NW mine on June 9, 2017. Mandalay is also initiating consultations with its unions about the potential impacts on employees during this period of suspended production.”
“Mandalay Resources is a Canadian-based natural resource company with producing assets in Australia, Chile, and Sweden, and a development project in Chile. The Company is focused on executing a roll-up strategy, creating critical mass by aggregating advanced or in-production gold, copper, silver and antimony projects in Australia, the Americas, and Europe to generate near-term cash flow and shareholder value.”
https://ceo.ca/@nasdaq/mandalay-resources-corporations-cerro-bayo-mine-gives
Heron Secures Complete A$240 Million Funding Package for Development of its Woodlawn Zinc-Copper Project
(Marketwired – June 30, 2017)
>> Highlights
– Heron to be fully funded through construction and ramp-up at Woodlawn
– US$60 million senior secured loan facility, US$16 million silver stream prepayment and A$29 million(3) equity investment from Orion Mine Finance
– Strong support from existing shareholder Greenstone Resources, providing a further A$42 million equity investment
– Introduction of new strategic investor Castlelake, L.P., providing a further A$33 million equity investment
– A$32 million raised from new and existing investors in oversubscribed placement
– Up to A$5 million Share Purchase Plan to allow eligible existing retail shareholder participation
– Transaction is subject to various conditions precedent including Heron shareholder approval and Castlelake FIRB approval
– Heron’s Independent Directors unanimously recommend shareholders vote in favour of all resolutions at a planned General Meeting in August
– Heron to commence construction works immediately with first production targeted during late 2018
https://ceo.ca/@marketwired/heron-secures-complete-a240-million-funding-package
NioCorp Announces Results of Positive Feasibility Study for its Elk Creek Superalloy Materials Project
@nasdaq on June 30, 2017
https://ceo.ca/@nasdaq/niocorp-announces-results-of-positive-feasibility-study
NexGen Energy CEO on getting deeper pockets – BNN Interview
NXE stock was up about 6 per cent Friday following a financing announcement. We talk with CEO Leigh Curyer on how the new funding will help with the company’s development of the flagship Arrow deposit.
http://www.bnn.ca/video/nexgen-energy-ceo-on-getting-deeper-pockets~1158538
Anaconda investigates narrow-vein tech
“Anaconda Mining has announced the start of a research and development project to develop, prototype and optimize a new technology to mine steeply dipping narrow gold veins, which cannot be mined cost-effectively with existing technologies”
26 Jun 2017
Ex…have you been keeping an eye on AZS.V ? Sold off hard and now trickling back up.
@Allan Things getting a little interesting over there at $AZS. My pal John Kaiser said folks should own it before the next batch of assays come out. Looks like someone got an idea there might be some good news coming out. I nearly pulled the trigger on a recommendation at .175 yesterday.
Hey there Markedtofuture. Yes, I saw the 68% move up yesterday in AZS, and it is in anticipation of the forthcoming assays for sure. I was actually going to take a speculative position in it soon, but missed the window. Now I’ll wait to see if they really have something after they report the data. We all know how the first results went.
It’s a volatile stock right now, but I’m rooting for them to find a real Silver discovery that moves the needle.
The market needs more good discovery stories, and there are a number of explorers in a number of commodities that have disappointed in their 2016 programs. It would be encouraging for more good drill hits for the 2017 drilling season in the Junior Miners.
As always ….Thanks
Doc, when will your new book, HOW I BEAT POISON IVY WITHOUT CHEMO OR RADIATION,
be in the stores?
If you are on the path in Downtown Toronto where the big board sits under The TD center, the discussion here has little to do with the stock market but a lot more to do with real estate in Toronto. That is where the big gains have been made in the last decade and a half. DT
At the moment, GDX is down 3% for the month while GDXJ and GOEX are both UP more than 6%. That’s a good sign for the sector.