BoJ and ECB Comments Moving Currencies But Not How You Would Expect

July 20, 2017

Nothing was really said by either the ECB or the BoJ this morning but for some reason we are seeing the Euro shoot higher. Chris Temple and I discuss why this does not make sense to us when the market was hoping for some comments on if/how they will continue to tighten policy.

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    Jul 20, 2017 20:20 AM

    Just cannot believe the miners are going to smoothly ramp up from here. When have they ever started a large multimonth move up without first generating downside energy via a short term spike down (aka a shakeout)?

    Jul 20, 2017 20:40 AM

    Quick Update: GDXJ
    The Hedgeless Horseman – July 20, 2017

    “Given that the US dollar index and especially USD/JPY is tanking while real rates are going lower, gold and silver should be up strongly ATM. Unfortunately there seems to some resistance keeping the metals from heading higher. One factor that I personally believe is playing a part is that the mining indices GDX and GDXJ are at the very end of a year old wedge consolidation pattern as can be seen below. If metals were to REALLY rally, it would probably lead to a massive bullish break out for the miners.”

      Jul 20, 2017 20:50 AM

      Re: “Unfortunately there seems to some resistance keeping the metals from heading higher.”

      Yes, the bears and profit-taking bulls are selling at the 50/55 and 233 day MAs which are tightly grouped right now. The 200 day MA is providing support.

        Jul 20, 2017 20:56 AM

        Well the metals are strengthening, so it would be nice to see the miners outperform and break out of that wedge, and blow through those MAs, kicking off the fall rally.

          Jul 20, 2017 20:36 AM

          I think this fall is going to be very good but I’m sure there will be enough volatility to keep most people out of the market as the move gets going.

            Jul 20, 2017 20:38 AM

            Agreed. The Bull likes to shake off as many riders as possible all the way up….

    Jul 20, 2017 20:43 AM

    Metanor Resources appoints Mr. James N. Fairbairn as new CFO
    (Marketwired – July 20, 2017) -(TSX VENTURE:MTO)

    Jul 20, 2017 20:44 AM

    Continued dollar weakness doesn’t surprise me. Like I said last night:

    On July 19, 2017 at 7:55 pm,
    Matthew says:

    For starters, a move below 93 looks very likely…

      Jul 20, 2017 20:46 AM

      A move below 93 would be a real boon to the Precious Metals. Nice Chart!

    Jul 20, 2017 20:46 AM
    Jul 20, 2017 20:17 AM

    Well, looking back at the 2010 rally in silver miners, I have to say they did actually condolidate in a tight range for a long period leading up to that rally. And it did start as a slow ramp and slowly turned into an explosion:

      Jul 20, 2017 20:22 AM

      If the market can’t scare you out, it will try to wear you out with long and choppy consolidations.

        Jul 20, 2017 20:37 AM

        I will say this though, the daily EMAs remained in bullish alignment during 2010. Can’t say the same for them now.

    Jul 20, 2017 20:19 AM

    Another one bites the dust…..

      Jul 20, 2017 20:32 AM

      Number ,84….Sinclair posted a chart on the string of deaths around Billy hilly ,…

      Jul 20, 2017 20:45 AM

      Yet, millions of fools are more worried about Trump.

        Jul 20, 2017 20:15 PM

        Amazing it has gone on so long with out notice….the SHEEple are clueless

          Jul 20, 2017 20:09 PM

          Yes they are clueless. Their regularly scheduled programming has been very successful.

    Jul 20, 2017 20:41 AM

    NEM raised its dividend 50% yesterday. Yippee! They must be counting their Novo chickens.

      Jul 20, 2017 20:21 PM

      Uh-oh , we know what happens when people count their Novo Nuggets before they hatch….


        Jul 20, 2017 20:22 PM

        I’m interested in adding back to my Novo position soon before the trenching bulk sample assays are out in a few weeks.

    Jul 20, 2017 20:40 AM

    Would the Democraps really offer up this for 2020? Maybe so. Welcome to New South Afica.

    Is 78-year-old “Auntie” Maxine Waters seriously going to make a run for the White House in 2020?

      Jul 20, 2017 20:46 AM

      Ha ,ha,ha..maybe the Clinton Foundation will back her

        Jul 20, 2017 20:50 AM

        She owes her daughter $108,000 – maybe she can ask HILLY for a loan

          Jul 20, 2017 20:16 PM

          Jer, just heard the Juice will soon be on the loose. Maybe Orenthal can run with Maxine. Whadda ya think of a Waters/Simpson ticket??? Ought to be a hoot! 🙂

            Jul 20, 2017 20:10 PM

            Juice &,Waters

            Jul 20, 2017 20:22 PM

            Watered down OJ…soggy.

    Jul 20, 2017 20:20 PM

    A Basket Of Stocks To Play The Impending Clean Energy/EV Boom – Part 1 (Lithium)

    Jul. 20, 2017 – Fi Fighter (@Jayfire)

      Jul 20, 2017 20:20 PM

      Shad, what do you think of the oils here, particularly Chevron and Anadarco? What about oil services? If you listen to the nutcakes in places like Colliefornia you would think the state of Colliefornia will get rid of the gas powered engine by decree of Governor Moonbeam. Then we had Volvo saying all their cars will be electric or hybrid. So many are anticipating a hit on oil demand sooner rather than later. I don’t believe it.

        Jul 21, 2017 21:20 AM

        Oil & Gas will NOT be phased out overnight, and there are literally thousands of uses for petroleum products in industry and daily life.

        Personally, I’m considering staking out positions again in the ETFs like XLE, XOP, and OIH to get exposure to the larger producers, smaller Jrs, and Oil Service companies, but I just don’t have the bandwidth anymore to chase the individual names.

        Certain investors do like holding the individual issues though because of dividends or capturing outsized move without having them truncated by the average of a basket of stocks. This is true in any sector, and while I’m critical of many ETFs in Gold, Silver, Uranium, Lithium, etc… they do fill a nice void for investors that just want exposure to a particular sector or sub-sector.

        Having said that, the largest use for Oil & Gas is clearly in Transportation (Autos, Buses, Airlines, Boats/Ships). As more and more of the market share starts to convert over to Electric Vehicles, then it will squeeze out many of the marginal Oil/Gas companies, and cause a greater consolidation in the space for survival. This will take 10-20 years (not 10-20 months). 🙂

        I’m a fan of Lithium, Cobalt, Copper, Manganese, and PGMs because they are utilized in different battery types, and there is growth not just in the cars, but in Electric Buses, Electric Trucks, Electric Tractors, E-Bikes, Forklifts, Drones, Powertools, Tablets/Smart Phones, etc…. Too many people get fixated on just one company like Tesla or Volkswagen, and miss the forest due to the trees. The multiple battery plants being built in Asia are mind-boggling.

        The other growth segment is in Backup Batteries for renewable energy sources like Solar and Wind. Since the political pressure and public sentiment (wrong or right) is pushing the market that direction, then renewable power plants will need hefty BackUp Batteries. There are also many remote businesses (including miners) that find it easier to have battery powered equipment or run their remote site power off Back-Up batteries, and not deal with liquid fuels or the emissions.

        So many people want to argue about Global Warming (fact/fiction) or how long it will take Gasoline cars to get faded out, or how Big Oil won’t let it happen….. but they are having the wrong arguments, using outdated thinking, and missing the investing thesis in Battery Tech due to the tunnel-vision of their thinking. They are so busy trying to win the debate on Climate Change or whatever has their feathers ruffled, that they are missing the changes in industry that are happening on a global basis.

        A larger market of Batteries are coming into MANY areas of daily life with their knowledge and without their permission or philosophical approval. The cheese is moving, industries are adapting, Big Oil is very involved in renewable energy now (they see the writing on the walls), there are more to Lithium-ion batteries than just Tesla or EVs, and it is the cumulative demand for technology, transportation, and being able to store power in mobile fashion without hauling around Gas/Oil that has many companies moving aggressively into bigger and better batteries.

        I told people 2 decades ago that you don’t have to like the smell of gasoline to get rich owning a chain of service stations. You don’t have to like Big Macs to get rich owning a franchise of several McDonalds. You don’t have agree with ladies pampering themselves to own a chain of Day Spas. Etc….

        You don’t have to own an Electric Car (I don’t) to understand that Batteries are in demand, and the raw components like Lithium, Cobalt, Copper, Manganese are likewise in demand.

        For example: I’ve never taken a ride on a Chinese Electric bus. It doesn’t matter. I’m more than happy to own shares in the Lithium companies, selling their material to the refiners, that sell their products to the battery companies, that sell those batteries to manufacturers of Chinese Electric buses.

        No intense metaphysical debate is needed to invest in supply & demand fundamentals.

        Batteries are simply becoming increasingly used in mobile energy storage, and the odds are that anyone reading this using one right now on whatever device they are using to log on to the KER (if using a tablet, laptop, or smartphone). Pretty simple.

          Jul 21, 2017 21:38 AM

          On a related note, I was on a rant about specialty metals and battery tech with Jay (Fi Fighter) earlier today and figured I’d throw this up here as well in case anyone is following some of the Asian interest in Lithium companies.


          @Excelsior – “Jayfire – Solid points on the commodities that the Chinese can source themselves. It’s the rest of the world that should be working towards securing strategic supplies of many of the critical elements and #SpecialtyMetals that support medical, aerospace, defense, electrical, manufacturing, etc… or we are at the whim of the Chinese price makers.

          * This is why the US put up a bill for address just this:

          As for Lithium and Cobalt being sources outside of China, you’ll note that #Tianqui gobbled up the first Australian Lithium producer outside of the Big 3 – which was #Talison. I was a shareholder in Talison back then and there was some market chatter when everyone realized they Chinese were going to slowly acquire sources of Lithium, and they’ve only continued to play this card over the last few years.

          Look at how #Ganfeng came in and acquired much of $NMT.AX and $MIN.AX new producing #Lithum project (that rarely gets mentioned when people go down the list of producers). #Ganfeng has also partnered with $ILC International Lithium and $PIO.AX Pioneer resources in a big way. In addtion, #Ganfeng did a strategic investment $LAC Lithium Americas and $PLS.AX Pilbara and are sniffing around other companies. Toyota and the Japanese are in with $ORL $ORE.AX Orocobre.

          At this point $NMX Nemaska Lithium is one near-term Lithium producer that doesn’t have much Asian participation as their big stakeholders are $JMAT.L Johnson Matthey & $FMC FMC Corp.

          Jul 21, 2017 21:58 AM

          Thanks for the info.