http://www.silverdoctors.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/gold-bull-1-300×255.jpg

@Goldfinger – “Here’s the real head & shoulders bottom in $gold.”

“Breakout above neckline (~$1260) targets $1300-$1310. ”

http://cdn.ceo.ca/1cnhnvp-Gold_4_hour_7.26.2017.png

😉

Greenback bounced off 93 to 93.11

USD has continued to bounce to 93.55

Gold hanging at $1261.50

Silver at $16.74 (Nice to Silver starting to outperform Gold again)

Silver $16.80 and climbing….

CFS – Investor Relations confirmed to several different traders on ceo.ca that It was a major seller that wanted out of their position. See the link in the post above. (I think it was Dupont because the 23 million shares in the fund they say wanted out matches up)

They sure didn’t exit in a graceful way. They chopped the value of the shares down by 1/3 in in 1 day out of nowhere. (Well it did happen the day after Brazil released all the news about the new mining laws they were going to enact. That could have been the catalyst for this big fund seller today).

Regardless they set up quite the buying opportunity.

If it was Tocqueville, then this was just the beginning of the selling.

The CEO of JAG mentioned to one trader today on the phone the selling was mostly done. I believe they had to sell 23 Million shares today, and that matches with DuPont in position 6.

Here’s one bright spot = The liquidity is improving (lol). 🙂

I see. So the other 12 million traded was collateral damage. Nice. 🙂

I’m sure there will be continued selling as many retail holders had to have missed the action and will now sell any strength.

There was 29 Million shares moved today so that would only be 6 million in collateral damage, and I’m sure there were plenty of sell-stops triggered today to make up that volume. The shares were cut down by -35% earlier in the day and closed down -29%.

That kind of shaking of the tree is a capitulation event.

Also the company waited until the close to put out the “No Material Change” news release, so most were bewildered as to what was happening all day.

I’m not sure how many retail sellers are even left after today’s rout, but it would be very surprising to see that kind of volume again tomorrow or for a sustained time.

Gold is rising higher, their costs are improving, and a whole bunch of investors are now taking another look at JAG. Over at ceo.ca I’ve been one of a handful of investors discussing JAG over the last year, and today there were tons discussing it in multiple rooms, so in a back-handed way, this was an interesting PR event for Jaguar Mining.

Lots of traders just woke up to the fact that Sprott has been buying and has about 20% of the company now, so the light bulb is going on with a new batch of investors.

Check out the peer group comparisons on (Page 6). Only Primero and Troy are at a lower valuation.
________________________________________________________________________

(JAG) (JAGGF) Jaguar Mining Corporate Presentation:

https://www.jaguarmining.com/site/assets/files/2169/2017-06-05-jaguar.pdf

Stockcharts shows 34.8 million traded and Interactive Brokers shows 30.8 million.

Yahoo and Scottrades showed 29.4 Million.

Regardless. The selling looks to have mostly dried up and JAG is up today, on more reasonable volumes.

@1969Enigma – “$JAG L2 looking nice and thin after 0.295.”

http://cdn.ceo.ca/1cnk188-Capture.JPG

6.7 million shares so far today… not what I’d call reasonable volume but in line with what I expected. Such carnage is never a one day affair.

It was up 12-18% so I wouldn’t really call that carnage, but that is higher than average volume for sure, but nothing like yesterday’s plunge. It is to be expected after such a sell-down, for higher volume on the bounce.

Things will likely settle down more by next week, but I’m still interested to see if there is a little more liquidity and interest to get an extension of the bounce up into the mid $30’s. That would make this a nice swing trade on most of the chunk added on the dip.

Ex, the high today was still 22% below the low that had held since early May. To say that .29 isn’t still a carnage level doesn’t make much sense to me. Today’s very high volume backs me up if the large seller is done selling, as you thought. That high volume is sacred money selling strength like I said it would yesterday. Also, if the carnage had ended yesterday and the selling had really subsided, we wouldn’t still have an oversold daily RSI(14) reading. People are clearly still saying “get me outta here!”

Now let’s see if we get a retest of yesterday’s low – or at least an attempt at one.

Fair enough Matthew. I follow what you are saying but just look at things a bit differently is all.

My point was that the carnage & selldown and massive volume was yesterday. Was there higher volume and some traders panic selling today. Sure there was, but at least the share price rallied today (over 18% at one point). That’s a nice one day trade (if someone bought the dip and sold today) in anyone’s book and some investors wait all year and don’t make 12% or 18% on their money. It’s hard for me to consider that further carnage, but rather a slight relief from yesterday’s carnage. It just looking at things differently. That’s what makes the world go round.

I personally did add on the dip (twice), but didn’t sell today on the rally because I was hoping for a higher impulse leg up. My vantage point is that if a stock is rallying it’s hard to consider that further carnage.

You had mentioned you wouldn’t be surprised to see the selling to continue today, and I was simply pointing out it rallied. If it had dropped 18% more that would have been carnage. BTW – I never said anything about it getting back to it’s normal pricing, so I’m not sure what you’re getting at. It bounced and that was better than the alternative.

– Are many investors panic-selling into this strength because they want out? Sure they are. That doesn’t mean today was Carnage though, because others were saying “Get me Into this stock.” Right?

It could have just kept waterfalling down to the teens…. that would have been carnage and further liquidation. The RSI isn’t going to turn up that sharply in 1 day anyway, so it will take some time to get the stock back up into the high $.30’s and $.40s again and improve the different chart indicators.

Just an observation but it sure seems that for someone that is long this stock you’ve been vocally quite negative on it lately.

– I brought up the news release and mentioned it was positive, due to the lowered cash costs and bigger cash reserves on their most recent press release, whereas you fixated on the reduction of 5,000 ounces per year in production guidance. Going from 100,000-110,000 to 95,000-105,000 ounces isn’t a radical change. I agreed with you that the markets don’t generally like missing guidance, and consented that it was a mixed bag; however, I sure didn’t view their press release as a purely negative one.

– When I mentioned the traders over ceo.ca crew had talked with IR and the CEO at JAG, and that it was discussed that it was one large seller that was almost done, you turned to warnings of hoping it wasn’t Tocqueville or that the selling had only begun.

– When I mentioned I thought the stock would bounce today (which it did), you mentioned there would likely be more selling. You added that investors that missed it would bail on the strength. I agree that many investors may have bailed on the stock yesterday and today in fear, but clearly on every side of the trade, many investors were buying the shares others sold. There are 2 sides to the trade and not everyone is a seller – many wise investors were happily buying the shares.

– Again, Eric Sprott was buying recently at $.42 a share, and I’m sure he thought he was getting good value there. In my mind picking up shares in the $.25-$.30 area is great value for JAG. Maybe it is going down the drain or will get stuck here for a long time, but I see these current levels as ridiculous, especially when a Gold producer of roughly 100,000 ounces per year is compared against others in that peer group. They were already really undervalued on a number of metrics.

> If you were long before at higher prices don’t you feel they are much more attractive shares now?

Maybe I’m too optimistic, but I feel this is Christmas in July as it relates to JAG. If the stock raises up into the mid $.30s or low $.40s I may lighten up my load a bit, but buying in the mid $.20s was an easy decision to say yes to.

If the stock does go down and test the recent low (which often happens after a capitulation event to confirm there is really support at that level,) then I may buy one last tranche. However, if it keeps rising higher then I’ll celebrate the opportunity to have added more to the position on the cheap.

If it tanks tomorrow, and investors panic sell, then I guess I’ll happily buy more of their shares. Personally, I’d like to see JAG get the recognition it really deserves in the marketplace and feel it has a long way to run from here. That just my point of view on it, but I realize you may feel differently and that’s OK.

I didn’t fixate on anything, Ex. I’m just being accurate with the details. You said the PR was positive and I simply pointed out that it wasn’t. A 5% drop in production might not be the worst thing but it’s a move in the wrong direction and that gets investors’ attention. No matter how we look at it, it’s not positive.

My commenting on the short term action should not be construed as big-picture bearishness. As already mentioned, my position got roughly 50% larger yesterday.

Longer term, I’d bet you’re not optimistic enough. 😉

Matthew – I was being just as accurate with details as you were. The news release was NOT all negative any way you slice it.

I initially mentioned it was positive because I was focused on the reduction in cash costs and build up of cash reserves – which was constructive news for the marketplace. There was more to the press release than just the updated 5% reduction in guidance, and much of it was quite constructive regarding their operations improving in the second half of the year. To state emphatically that it was a “negative” press release, isn’t really correct either, since clearly it was mixture of both Good & Bad news = Mixed bag.

I’m willing to admit that it had positive and negative news, but not once in this conversation have you wanted to discuss the constructive parts of the release and keep glossing right over those facts and stating definitely that it was negative, like you are the judge of all news.

I wasn’t the one warning of the selling just beginning, nor stating that the press release was only negative, or that shares would likely sell off today, or labeling today’s rally action as carnage. You don’t think that’s negative shading or language? Go back and read it like a someone not familiar with their story and it sound quite bearish.

Here is a fact – Today the stock climbed up 18% and closing 12% higher than it opened. I sincerely hope that isn’t up for debate here.

Any stock closing 12% higher than it opens would not be labeled carnage to the vast majority of people. We are talking about the action from today, and those comments had absolutely nothing to do with support from May being broken in the selloff the day before. You’re the one that interjected those thoughts, and that was pretty obvious after sell down to new recent lows the day before. Saying a 18% bounce and 12% close higher was a nice bounce was not meant to be a controversial statement on my part. Good grief.

Now, if JAG goes back down tomorrow and blasts through $.24 and heads to $.20 or $.18 then I’ll agree THAT would be continued carnage.

In addition, I wouldn’t consider a back- test of yesterday’s low to be warm and fuzzy, but did already mention that would be normal to test the low after a capitulation event. If that happens and the support holds there, then I already said I’ll buy more and already considered it undervalued relative to it’s peers and that it is heading much higher. I’m not sure how that is not “positive enough” in your eyes.

I haven’t run across any investor that has been as positive as Jaguar as I’ve been for the last few years now, so I’m not sure how much more bullish I need to be, but don’t really care what anyone thinks. My investment thesis doesn’t depend on others opinions or positions.

Let’s just agree to disagree on this one as we are looking at things from two different vantage points. I respect your thoughts and opinions and hope you return the favor.

For the record I hold 25 Gold stocks and the only 2 that I have a larger position in at present than JAG are PPP and BLK.AX.

My position in JAG is also bigger than all of the 13 Silver stocks I hold, so for me personally, that is a bullish stance on one mining company.

Ex, you characterized the PR as being positive without mentioning the negative. That’s not being accurate. The positives in the PR don’t change that fact.

As for the selling continuing, it absolutely DID continue. Yesterday’s volume was equivalent to 2.3 MONTHS of trading based on the average daily volume. STRENGTH was getting sold just like I said it would. 7 million more shares were sold at prices WAY below the opening price of the day of the plunge. That’s continued selling.

I’m sure you are right that most people would view the action in isolation as you did. In my book, such a claim hurts your argument more than it helps it. Since when is the most common view the most accurate one — especially when it comes to markets and investing?

Bottom line, there would have been no way for buyers to pick up so many shares at such a huge discount to the previous day’s opening price if not for the continued selling.

As for you being not optimistic enough, I was mostly joking but you do tend to blow out your positions too early when they rise.

Those are valid points Matthew and well taken.

I really do value your insights, (and I do blow out my positions way to early….) 🙂

Also, JAG has sold down to $.26 and is not following through on the rally. I believed it really had a crack at breaking $.29 today and breaking into the $.30s, but I was wrong.

Well this is short term stuff that I think we agree WILL end well.
As they say, all’s well that ends well!

Yes, that is a “positive” news release for my mind to consider today. Thanks.

I have level II. I’ll look.

I agree with these traders, that if they’d have put the news release out earlier in the day about no material change, then the stock could have bounced by the end of the day, but we’ll see how things go tomorrow and for the balance of the week.

The irony, as you stated, is they’ve worked hard to lower their cash costs, and Gold has been rising and closed higher today. Really JAG should be stretching it’s legs to the upside in this kind of environment, but today was a great oportunity to go bottom fishing.

Right.

JAG has made it up to $.265 so far, so getting a slower start to the day rebounding around 10% but still plenty of room to run to the upside, since there was no fundamental reason for the selloff yesterday. (just a messy exit that is in the rear view mirror).

JAG still inching it’s way up to $.275 up 12.24% .

It would be great to get back to $.32-$.33 today, but that may take a few more trading sessions to play out. You never know though…. 🙂

Here is the (JAG) L2 Pricing and comment I agree with:

@1969Enigma – $JAG can easily run to the 40s with the way the L2 is stacked up. Loads of bid support.”

http://cdn.ceo.ca/1cnjv90-Capture.JPG

@1969Enigma – “$JAG … blue sky ahead…

” $JAG 0.285 gone…”

http://cdn.ceo.ca/1cnk53l-Capture.JPG

Good article by one of their top guys:
https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/session_briefing/daily_fundamentals/2017/07/27/dollar-drops-euro-rips-after-fomc-us-data-gdp-in-spotlight-srepstans.html

Good article on the Dollar/Euro with a good embedded chart. I’ll have to keep tabs on these guys.