Dana Lyons Commentary – Tue 8 Aug, 2017

Comments on Bitcoin and the investment thesis

This is a bit dated but includes an update on the Bitcoin chart and a general investment thesis from our friend Dana Lyons. Dana is not the only technical analysts who is now trading Bitcoin. In my mind the acceptance of technical traders to start trading Bitcoin has also been a major boost to the overall price of the cryptocurrency.

Here is what Dana has to say…

Click here to visit Dana’s blog where this was posted today.

he following post was issued to The Lyons Share members on July 27, 2017, just prior to the ~35% (so far) jump in the Bitcoin price. See the bottom of post for updated charts**.

July 27: Off The Charts: Bitcoin (TLS PREMIUM)

While the Bitcoin craze means nothing to us, the chart of the cryptocurrency actually presents a potentially very attractive setup at the moment.

Recently, I was asked by Marketwatch for my opinion of the Bitcoin (BTC) phenomenon. It would have been quite accurate for me to say “I literally have no opinion on it.” Figuring it would be more appropriate to at least somewhat expand on that reality, here’s what I told Marketwatch, as quoted in the article:

“Honestly, I have no idea why we need to be a part of that whole thing,” says Dana Lyons of J. Lyons Fund Management, chalking up his hesitation to Warren Buffett’s “don’t invest in what you don’t understand” philosophy.

“I know a lot of institutional backing is there with blockchain, but it seems like the entire phenomenon could vaporize at any time,” he said. “I’m probably wrong, but without having an identifiable edge, I strain to find any reason to allocate capital (especially clients’) to the space.”

That basically sums up our feelings toward the whole cryptocurrency phenomenon. The most crucial point is that not having any kind of an edge in the space would make any investment or trade a veritable gamble.

Now, in a bit of a throw away sentence in my email to Marketwatch, I mentioned that “sure, we could chart the thing but there are literally thousands of securities with decades of patterned price history that make much more sense in that respect.” And that was the flat-out truth, as far as I was concerned.

Then I actually looked at the Bitcoin chart.

One glance at the chart — which I never really intended to do — had me at least considering taking a deeper look at the price structure. What immediately caught my eye was a potential buy setup in the near-term. In fact, ironically, I doubt there are many charts among those “literally thousands of securities” that offer a better potential setup at the present time.

Before I get into the partial change of heart, let me reiterate one thing regarding Bitcoin. We have ZERO edge regarding our understanding of the phenomenon and its future potential. As such, we have no intention of trading it within our client accounts in the foreseeable future. Finally, given the (relatively) tenuous structure and regulation surrounding cryptocurrencies in general, any trade in the space must be considered pure speculation and nothing more.

Alright, with that said…here are the reasons we really like the potential of the chart at the moment.

1) Reliable conformity to charting analysis

When considering any price plot, especially one as immature and enigmatic as bitcoin, it is imperative to first study the chart history to determine whether prices actually appear to adhere to traditional technical analysis or charting techniques. If that is not the case, then it is utterly pointless to attempt to chart the issue as the lack of traditional guideposts will have you driving blindly.

In this case, though BTC is still relatively young, its price movement (especially in the most recent few cycles) does seem to conform to much of the charting analysis that we like to employ, e.g., Fibonacci especially. Check out the “long-term” chart:

image

We left the y-axis elongated as it is in order to show potentially relevant levels above Bitcoin’s highs to date. But before we get ahead of ourselves, take a look at how closely BTC has conformed to key Fibonacci lines, including:

  1. The 161.8% Fibonacci Extension (in red) of the 2013-2015 decline lies near the 1860 level. This was in the vicinity of both the initial interim high this spring following a breakout above the 2013 and early 2017 highs, as well as the low set in the recent mid-July pullback.
  2. The 261.8% Fibonacci Extension (red) of the 2013-2015 decline lies near the 2892 level, or right near the all-time highs set in June.
  3. The 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement (blue) of the 2015-2017 rally lies near the 1250 level, i.e., the level of the breakout above the 2013 and early 2017 highs.
  4. The 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement (blue) of the 2015-2017 rally lies near the 1928 level, in the vicinity of low set the recent mid-July pullback.
  5. The 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement (green) of the rally from the 2013-2017 breakout level to the June highs lies near the 1900 level, in the vicinity of low set the recent mid-July pullback.

I think that is enough evidence to confidently proceed with an earnest analysis of the Bitcoin chart.

2) Substantially optimistic prospects for higher prices (if looking to buy)

This box gets checked as well as the chart-based outlook for BTC in the near, and longer-term, appears bright. The main point is that the recent June-July consolidation looks to us like a continuation pattern, i.e., prices should eventually resolve higher in continuation of the rally initiated by April’s breakout above the 2013-2017 highs.

Following the most recent selloff in July, BTC importantly rallied back up to near the June highs. This suggests that the post-June decline was perhaps a counter-trend ABC down wave that has been completed via the recent bounce to higher interim highs. Thus, based upon that analysis, new highs should be in the cards for BTC.

image

3) An identifiable and nearby trigger (e.g., price point)

This last requirement is satisfied as well as, in our opinion, the pullback over the past few days has put BTC into position here it can commence a new up-leg at any moment. Any of the purple Fibonacci Retracement levels would suffice in containing the recent decline and in serving as a springboard to a new rally. Thus, anywhere between the 38.2% Retracement ~2498 and the 61.8% Retracement ~2222 should be a solid entry point on the long side in Bitcoin. A decisive close below 2222 would undermine our bullish analysis and suggest stopping out one’s position.

If our scenario is valid, how high can Bitcoin go? While we don’t like to apply targets to our trading, using Fibonacci Extensions of this recent June-July consolidation may be reasonable to set expectations for a post-breakout move. BTC’s conformity to the 2013-2015 Extensions provide cover for our use of these new Extensions. Here are some possibilities based on said Extensions:

  • 127.2% Fibonacci Extension of June-July decline = ~3340 (+33% from current levels)
  • 161.8% Fibonacci Extension of June-July decline = ~3772 (+50% from current levels) *Best Bet?*
  • 423.6% Fibonacci Extension of June-July decline = ~4592 (+84% from current levels)
  • 261.8% Fibonacci Extension of June-July decline = ~5012 (+100% from current levels)

Obviously, there are a lot of big IF’s that we are dealing with here for the above gains to materialize. However, based upon our read of the BTC chart, as we would apply to all other charts, the possibility of hitting at least the 1st 2 “target” levels is good enough from a risk/reward standpoint to warrant an entry here.

Again, we are not telling anyone to buy Bitcoin. It is doubtless more risky and unstable than most securities that we cover every day. That said, if one is so inclined to partake in the speculation, our read of BTC’s current chart setup is about as favorable as it gets.

**August 7, 2017 UPDATED CHARTS:

See Bitcoin’s strong reaction (a/o 8/7/2017) off of the levels we highlighted in our July 27 post.

Short-Term:

image

Long-Term:

image

If you are interested in the “all-access” version of our charts and research, we invite you to check out our new site, The Lyons Share. Thanks for reading!

_____________

Disclaimer: JLFMI’s actual investment decisions are based on our proprietary models. The conclusions based on the study in this letter may or may not be consistent with JLFMI’s actual investment posture at any given time. Additionally, the commentary provided here is for informational purposes only and should not be taken as a recommendation to invest in any specific securities or according to any specific methodologies. Proper due diligence should be performed before investing in any investment vehicle. There is a risk of loss involved in all investments.


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Comments:
  1. On August 8, 2017 at 10:21 am,
    spanky says:

    EXK down 7 days in a row–down over 30% over that time. That’s a bull market if I ever saw one.

    • On August 8, 2017 at 11:02 am,
      David says:

      Rigged market as always.

    • On August 8, 2017 at 11:05 am,
      Matthew says:

      That tide has turned but the beginning of a bull market in this sector always makes most people doubt it — and that’s a good thing if you like big gains. Huge returns don’t happen often when the average guy “gets it.”

      http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=EXK&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=22&id=p86926283883&a=538037431

      • On August 8, 2017 at 11:09 am,
        spanky says:

        I’m sorry, is this supposed to show something bullish?

        And Iike I said, the miners may not break their 2016 low, but that doesn’t mean we can’t get darn close to the low and then churn below the 2016 high for years.

        • On August 8, 2017 at 11:23 am,
          Matthew says:

          No, that’s shows you the next supports. I don’t own EXK but if I wanted it, I’d be hoping for the current move to stretch further before it gets some relief.

          • On August 8, 2017 at 11:28 am,
            spanky says:

            Oh, I have no dounts that it is going to extend deeper. EXK consolidated in a sideways range for 5 months. The bigger the base, the bigger the breakdown.

            I expect the same thing is going to happen in GDX and GDXJ.

          • On August 8, 2017 at 11:31 am,
            Excelsior says:

            the breakdown has already been pretty steep, and Endeavour is getting very oversold here, but the upside potential is getting far more intriguing that the downside risk at this point.

          • On August 8, 2017 at 11:34 am,
            spanky says:

            See 2014 for a “severe” break down in EXK. This is just a scratch. the lower monthly BB is coming in at $1.42. While it may rise by next month, I expect EXK will hit it within 2-3 months.

          • On August 8, 2017 at 11:39 am,
            Excelsior says:

            If it rises I’ll trim some back, and then if it falls again, I’ll buy more. The 3rd and 4th Quarters are supposed to have improved production metrics and it is a seasonally strong period for the precious metals, so their ounces produced, costs, margins and profitability will be improving. That doesn’t seem like an environment where it would sell off for the next 3 months.

          • On August 8, 2017 at 11:41 am,
            Matthew says:

            These things give huge leverage in both directions, spanky. Buying scary weakness makes it a lot easier to sit tight and be right.

          • On August 8, 2017 at 11:47 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Matthew – agreed that the leverage in Silver Miners are a 2 way street. The crazy crash times are the time to acquire, and the frothy blow-offs are the time to lighten the load….

          • On August 8, 2017 at 11:48 am,
            Excelsior says:

            The volatility in the silver miners is what makes them so idea for swing trading. Nobody makes money trading a flat market. Bring on the turbulent seas……

        • On August 8, 2017 at 11:25 am,
          Excelsior says:

          Well the RSI is way over sold, the Slow Stochastics are oversold and about to cross to the upside, and the ADX red line is about to turn down from nosebleed levels and intensity. Looks like a bullish reversal set up to me, and I was buying EXK today because it is way oversold here and ready for a relief rally in near future.

          • On August 8, 2017 at 11:30 am,
            spanky says:

            A relief rally? The weekly stochastics haven’t even reached oversold yet, and once the do I expect them to imbed oversold for another 2-3 months.

          • On August 8, 2017 at 11:32 am,
            Excelsior says:

            The daily slow stochastics are way oversold and about to cross back up, and the daily RSI is way oversold. I could see the Silver miners being under pressure until mid to late August, but then yes, I’m expecting quite a relief rally.

          • On August 8, 2017 at 11:34 am,
            Excelsior says:

            If the Silver miners stayed embedded as oversold for the next 2-3 months, I’d be very surprised.

        • On August 8, 2017 at 11:38 am,
          Matthew says:

          EXK trades at 2.5x book; 2.5x sales; and 13.5x cash flow.
          IPT trades at .6x book; 1.6x sales; and 9.1x cash flow.

          IPT also went up more than twice as much as EXK last year and currently trades at about one-twelfth the market cap.

          • On August 8, 2017 at 11:43 am,
            Excelsior says:

            No doubt that IPT has more torque and leverage, (as well as exploration upside that most are not factoring in), but EXK is more of a mid-tier with 3 producing mines and 3 development stage projects.

            I see their pipeline of new mines from those 3 projects over the next 1-3 years as being the driving force for (EXK).

            Endeavour Silver is also featured more prominently in many of the mining ETFs so if buying increases in those EXK will benefit.

          • On August 8, 2017 at 11:44 am,
            Excelsior says:

            I hold shares in both 🙂

          • On August 8, 2017 at 12:46 pm,
            Matthew says:

            EXK will be better than fine but it doesn’t interest me.

          • On August 8, 2017 at 1:14 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Yeah, I figured it would be a little larger than some of the micro-cap companies you prefer, but for those investors that are too risk-adverse for the smaller market-cap stocks then they may want a mid-tier with a some torque. Endeavour Silver, Fortuna, Hochschild are good picks in the Silver Mid-Tiers and Endeavour has the potential for much more upside surprise from here.

            America Silver will be a more highly leveraged mid-tier Silver/Zinc/Lead producer once San Rafael comes online later in the year. USAS and EXK are the only 2 mid-tier Silver producers I hold, and the rest are smaller producers like IPT, EXN, SCZ, ASM, or developers like AXU, KTN, AUN, BHS, BCM, or Explorers like DV, BBB, KS, DEF, or SIL.

    • On August 8, 2017 at 11:17 am,
      Excelsior says:

      I sold some (TUO) Teuton Resources today on the big spike up [due to their JV partner Tudor Gold news in the Golden Triangle], and bought some more (EXK) Endeavour Silver today. Also nibbling at (USAS) and (SCZ) today. Doing some final shopping in the Silver miners and am almost fully deployed now.

      By late August I’m going to be as allocated as I want to be to the Precious Metals miners and still am focused on a number of other sectors in the commodities and energy space. I was nibbling at a few Uranium stocks this week as well.

    • On August 8, 2017 at 12:46 pm,
      Chris says:

      I don’t think being snarky is helpful to anyone.

  2. On August 8, 2017 at 10:24 am,
    OOTB Jerry says:

    Thanks for the chart………just as I thought………

    • On August 8, 2017 at 10:27 am,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      Comments on Bitcoin…….refer to Bix Weir, but, better wacko. Clif High……if, you are going to trade the bit….seems these two guys have a head start………….JMO

      • On August 8, 2017 at 10:29 am,
        OOTB Jerry says:

        Further, some insight to the “BIT”, would be to listen to Clif High at usawatchdog….

        • On August 8, 2017 at 10:30 am,
          OOTB Jerry says:

          Heck even Stew Thomson has an article on the BIT at 321gold….today…..

          • On August 8, 2017 at 11:55 am,
            spanky says:

            He’s a certifiable idiot.

          • On August 8, 2017 at 12:06 pm,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            Thanks for the reply…….you most likely are correct……

          • On August 9, 2017 at 10:59 am,
            Matthew says:

            Wow, spanky. That comment is way off base.

  3. On August 8, 2017 at 10:25 am,
    spanky says:

    $gold:$xjy ratio is headed down. There are two giant black candle on the monthly chart that say it all.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD%3A%24XJY&p=M&b=5&g=0&id=p29220879432&a=538625451&listNum=1

    The 100 month MA is so close now, I expect it to get tagged easily in the next few months as gold breaks down hard a la 2013.

  4. On August 8, 2017 at 10:32 am,
    spanky says:

    The rally in commodities over the last 1.5 months has “sucker’s rally” written all over it. The upthrusts are being shorted hard IMO.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GCC&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p10766827052&a=538626140&listNum=1

  5. On August 8, 2017 at 10:37 am,
    OOTB Jerry says:

    SILVER MINING PRODUCTION FALLS 27% at top 4 mining companies……..zh

    • On August 8, 2017 at 10:38 am,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      smart mining……why give it away……money in the ground…..long term

      • On August 8, 2017 at 10:47 am,
        b says:

        Its just not profitable to mine it.
        Mining companies dont think that way Jerry.

        Remember that one guy (i forget his name) that tried to get the miners to stop selling at low prices? Not a chance.
        Miners mine, and they dont care about anything else really.

        Only profit.

        • On August 8, 2017 at 11:42 am,
          OOTB Jerry says:

          First Majestic….Keith Neymeyer (sp)

          • On August 8, 2017 at 1:08 pm,
            JohnK says:

            The only business where the norm is to fail…….Shawn Ryan

          • On August 8, 2017 at 2:17 pm,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            John, that is a good one………..

        • On August 8, 2017 at 11:44 am,
          OOTB Jerry says:

          Someone said also, “Mining is a lousy business.”…

          • On August 8, 2017 at 12:43 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Rick Rule and Robert Friedland say that from time to time…..

          • On August 8, 2017 at 12:43 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            It’s not easy, that is for dang sure….

          • On August 8, 2017 at 12:57 pm,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            We can now quote you……..”It”s not easy, that is for dang sure…”,,,, 🙂

          • On August 8, 2017 at 1:17 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            😮

  6. On August 8, 2017 at 10:37 am,
    spanky says:
    • On August 8, 2017 at 1:45 pm,
      GH says:

      As long as gdxj doesn’t fall out of bed on this daily down cycle, I’ll take it. Coiling below the 200 day maa 1+ year triangle, nearing the apex…every reversal from here has a good chance of starting a powerful move…which way will it be?

  7. On August 8, 2017 at 10:40 am,
    OOTB Jerry says:

    Should be called the VON EEEEK fund………

  8. On August 8, 2017 at 10:53 am,
    spanky says:

    Once the $HUI breaks below the 50 dma, 185 is the first target. Today’s reversal is another warning to get out before its too late.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24HUI&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p92175499343&a=538630133&listNum=1

  9. On August 8, 2017 at 11:11 am,
    Excelsior says:

    Novo Announces First Bulk Sample Results From Its Karratha Gold Project, Western Australia
    Aug. 08, 2017 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Novo Resources Corp. (NVO)

    “We are very pleased with results from our initial bulk sampling exercise,” commented Dr. Quinton Hennigh, Chairman, President, and Director of Novo Resources Corp. “Not only was the grade of this bulk sample encouraging, the Steinert XSS T sorting machine proved highly efficient at picking rock with coarse gold particles. We see value in its use for helping determine grade of this very unusual mineralization as well as potential use for future commercial applications.

    We look forward to working with Nagrom over the next few weeks to develop sampling and analytic protocols applicable to our upcoming trenching and drilling program. Novo has developed extensive experience testing unconventional conglomerate gold deposits at our Beatons Creek project. Traditional exploration and analytic techniques are not well suited to this style of gold deposit. We look forward to exploiting our many years’ experience at Beatons Creek to our and Artemis’ benefit at Karratha. While these initial results are encouraging, a systematic and careful work program drawing on our experience is required.”

    https://ceo.ca/@nasdaq/novo-announces-first-bulk-sample-results-from-its-karratha

    • On August 8, 2017 at 12:08 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      (NVO) up 8% after coming off trading halt. The markets liked the assay results (but it still looks overbought to me because of how much it has run away from it’s longer term moving averages.

      That is the power of exploration discovery + imaginations run wild though….

      • On August 8, 2017 at 1:06 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        Here’s a nice counter-balancing opinion from a working geologist Dan Kogaion where he is still somewhat skeptical of the bulk sample collected being representative:

        __________________________________________________________________________

        @DanO – “@stateside don’t include this in your show ’cause some might not like different opinions than their own. Look at the $nxe thread. It’s religious. A cult. You cannot say a word or the religious police is going to come after you. I suspect that if $nvo sp holds we will see the same here.”

        OK, $nvo I expected this pr. It sheds some light on the type of mineralization and grades present at that specific location. It is one single rich spot sampled though (possible bias that could render the sample not representative). One spot that was most likely chosen because they have found some nuggets in there. Picked the nuggets from the trench then deepened it and collected this larger sample. What would happen if they were to collect a larger sample somewhere in between two nugget finds? Like 50 m away from a nugget find from an area that was previously scanned by a metal detector and no nugget was found? ”

        “Teevee mentioned something about ‘is it representative’? It is definitely not representative for the whole reef. The gold content of a (paleo)placer or of a vein varies a lot along strike and dip and the richest parts only will be included in resource estimates. They need to sample a lot to come with an average grade. The collection of this ‘bulk sample’ is similar with the collection of a 500 kg vein material from a part of the vein that I chose because it features visible gold in the quartz gangue. One thing that I wanted to find is the presence of fine gold. I expected them to have some and it is good that it exists in their sample. But I have many more questions here. Paleoplacer related, Wits related, gold distribution related, etc. You won’t hear them now but I might email the co even though from my previous experience dealing with Leo Karabelas he’s not that quick to answer them. He says I will pass them to the geologists but then weeks go by and no one contacts you. Busy ppl. Anyway this is a positive pr imo. Positive does not mean that they have a mineable gold deposit though. But an interesting one that’s for sure. And which might have potential.”

        • On August 8, 2017 at 1:49 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          The Hedgeless Horseman responds back to DanO’s comment on NVO…..
          ____________________________________________________________________________

          @HHorseman – “DanO I don’t think anyone banks on this being representative for even a fraction of the 7600kvm2 land, but to state that any bulk sample is essentially meaningless as per @teevee in the context of people finding nuggets all over the place is ridiculous. Every trend needs a starting point. This has been the first of many, and it is encouraging to say the least.”

          “Teevee ‘s negative bias was already painfully obvious after his “any thoughts on how large the $NVO gap to the downside will be? ” comment earlier (BEFORE any news was even out)… Zero credibility. Either he is bitter and/or short, and obviously not objective in the slightest.”

  10. On August 8, 2017 at 11:14 am,
    Ebolan says:
    • On August 8, 2017 at 11:15 am,
      Ebolan says:

      “Natural demand for dollars to stay out of jail.” 🙂

      • On August 8, 2017 at 12:08 pm,
        OOTB Jerry says:

        Govt is running out of money to house the prisoners….. 🙂

    • On August 8, 2017 at 11:46 am,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      Both those guys are out of their minds……….LOL

  11. On August 8, 2017 at 11:14 am,
    Archdeacon (!) Andrew says:

    Peter Schiff holds his own against Max Keiser in the whole bitcoin debate.
    https://www.rt.com/shows/keiser-report/396889-episode-max-keiser-1099/

    • On August 8, 2017 at 12:04 pm,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      Peter does not have a handle on the cryptos…….he needs to do some more studies on the subject…………jmo

      • On August 8, 2017 at 2:56 pm,
        Robert Moriarty says:

        OOTB:

        In any debate between Max Kaiser and Peter Schiff, the big money will always be on Peter. Kaiser was the guy saying those predicting a top in silver in April of 2011 had their heads up their butts. Turns out he had his head up his butt and cost his readers many millions.

        Bitcoin, tulip bulbs and Beanie Babies all have about the same intrinsic value. Those who believe need to read “Extraordinary Popular Delusions” when the party is over and perhaps they won’t fall for the “next big thing.”

        • On August 8, 2017 at 3:14 pm,
          OOTB Jerry says:

          Hello Bob, glad to hear from you. Concerning cryptos, neither party would I listen to at this time….One could have made a lot of money on tulip bulbs, and beanie babies , if they knew, when to get in and when to get out. I have listen to both those broken records for years…..and seek no advice from either.
          The only wacko on cryptos is Clif High, and his reason is a little different than Peter or Kaiser. But, since I have no skin in the game, I do find it interesting when the so called experts(gurus) have been wrong for so long………as always…….OOTB

          • On August 8, 2017 at 3:16 pm,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            BTW…..thanks for the comment on Novo

        • On August 8, 2017 at 5:32 pm,
          Matthew says:

          Exactly, Bob. BC is tulip bulbs 2.0 and Peter’s reasoning is sound.

          Jerry, real experts are experts, not because they catch long shots that are driven by greater fool theory, but because they avoid them. Peter Schiff, Jim Puplava and a few other well known guys missed the biggest move in stocks of the late 1990s because they underestimated just how stupid the crowds could be and moved to the sidelines.

          Of those who “nailed it” and rode the Nasdaq to its blow-off top, what percentage would you guess has Peter’s $70 million net worth?

          There’s nothing wrong with playing the lottery with money one can afford to lose, but it can hardly be argued that it’s dumb or wrong to avoid playing altogether.

          • On August 8, 2017 at 7:44 pm,
            JohnK says:

            Mathew:
            Remember I said I would never sell my Bitcoin? Since the Bitcoin fork, I now have Bitcoin Cash also. So now I can keep the Bitcoin and sell or trade the Bitcoin Cash if need be.
            Bitcoin 2.0

          • On August 9, 2017 at 5:04 am,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            Peak Oil ….Puplava , got that one wrong……

          • On August 9, 2017 at 11:05 am,
            Matthew says:

            Yes he did. Puplava gets plenty wrong. My point is that avoiding specs like BC doesn’t make someone wrong. There are countless opportunities in many asset classes and smart money knows that it doesn’t have to chase everything that comes along. It’s the little guy that tends to over diversify because he know equally little about everything.

          • On August 9, 2017 at 11:22 am,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            I think , Peter needs to talk to Clif High…….which I believe is more informed on BC, than Peter, was my point.

          • On August 9, 2017 at 11:25 am,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            I think Peter is a smart guy, no doubt about that…….

          • On August 9, 2017 at 1:04 pm,
            Matthew says:

            I don’t know who Clif High is but I don’t need to to know that Peter’s reasoning is sound/correct.

          • On August 10, 2017 at 4:37 am,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            Do your self a favor and find out……..

          • On August 10, 2017 at 4:39 am,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            After you find out, then we might be able to compare notes……thanks OOTB

        • On August 8, 2017 at 6:04 pm,
          OOTB Jerry says:

          Matthew…….I said…….”I have no skin in the game”…and am on the sideline.

          • On August 9, 2017 at 3:57 am,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            “dumb or wrong to avoid playing”…….never said that. Taking advice from those who do not understand the program, would not be sound advice.

          • On August 9, 2017 at 4:05 am,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            Since, I did not explain myself……Clif High has a better understanding on the cryptos…jmo

          • On August 9, 2017 at 5:00 am,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            RUSSIA LAUNCHES>>>>>$100 billion BITCOIN ..MINING OPERATION…..

          • On August 9, 2017 at 5:21 am,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            Goldman targets bitcoin to $3915…….zh today wed.

          • On August 9, 2017 at 10:07 am,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            correction only 100 million…….

  12. On August 8, 2017 at 11:25 am,
    spanky says:

    Expect $HUI to gap down big tomorrow (below the 50dma once again), along with the metals.

  13. On August 8, 2017 at 11:44 am,
    spanky says:

    $hui monthly chart.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24HUI&p=M&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p16795029778&a=538640051&listNum=1

    No way it penetrates this collossal Ichimoku cloud here. At best it will try in a couple of months from the 160-170 level. But even that would likely be nothing more than a sucker’s rally and will fail at the lower border of the cloud. Instead, I don’t think there will be any real upwards assault on the cloud until 2019 or 2020.

    • On August 8, 2017 at 11:50 am,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      2020……..new elections, and new hope……..LOL

    • On August 8, 2017 at 8:23 pm,
      GH says:

      Well, we had ‘drain the swamp’ for 2016, so why not ‘upwards assault on the cloud’ for 2019/2020 :-!

      • On August 9, 2017 at 4:51 am,
        OOTB Jerry says:

        they are going to Chem trail the cloud…….. 🙂

  14. On August 8, 2017 at 11:51 am,
    Excelsior says:

    AYAWILCA DRILLING SOLIDIFIES SOUTH ZONE RESOURCE POTENTIAL FOR TINKA; ZONE 3 NO SLAM DUNK YET, CHAUCHA/VALLEY/WEST TARGETS UP NEXT

    Posted on: Aug 08, 2017 – Tinka Resources (TK) (TKRFF)

    http://criticalinvestor.eu/analysis/zinc/ayawilca-drilling-solidifies-south-zone-resource-potential-tinka-zone-3-no-slam-dunk

  15. On August 8, 2017 at 11:57 am,
    JohnK says:

    The time to get into Bitcoin was at the last pullback when it went to about $670. U.S.
    Instead of focusing on Bitcoin I would suggest looking at the other crypto’s. For instance Ethereum was recently at about $200. U S. Now it is at $288.13. There are many to chose from but Bitcoin will always have first mover advantage.
    And of course Bitcoin will crash any second now.
    https://coinmarketcap.com/

    • On August 8, 2017 at 2:20 pm,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      I would agree….but, most have no knowledge of Bitcoin nor cryptos….this pony has a long way to run……..jmo

  16. On August 8, 2017 at 12:12 pm,
    spanky says:

    AXU’s turn for a as a$$whipping is coming up on their earnings in 2 days…

    • On August 8, 2017 at 12:40 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      AXU only has their environmental remediation business for earnings at this point as they are not going into production until 2018. Their Exploration and drill results will be of far more importance to the investing community to help out their projected economics than an earnings report on a Development stage company.

      Their chart over the last few years shows their leverage to the rising metals prices in 2016 (going up 1100%) and they’ve held up well retracing less than half that move up during the mining consolidation of the last year. I just don’t see why you are so bearish on Alexco.

      http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AXU&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p62155943906

      • On August 8, 2017 at 12:46 pm,
        spanky says:

        Reversion to the mean.

        I’ll give you this, in a vacuum AXU is looking ok, but these super long sideways consolidations after a massive drop (off the 2016 highs) are usually continuation patterns, as EXK and AG have so ably demonstrated.

        • On August 8, 2017 at 12:52 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          EXK and AG put out struggling production news from the 2nd quarter in the summer doldrums while the metals prices are underwhelming. Yes, they both took a nose dive down on their production results, but the Developers and Explorers are more discovery driven and tend to hold up better than producers during corrective cycles in the miners. This is also why I expect the downside to be more limited for First Majest or Endeavour Silver moving forward as they already crapped the bed….

          Good news from an explorer (like Tudor Gold, Teuton Resources, and American Creek today) can still blast shares higher in a depressed metals sentiment. Look at GT Gold or Novo as well lately. Exploration can still move the needle.

          • On August 8, 2017 at 12:54 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Alexco’s drill campaign didn’t start until August and runs into September, so if they keep putting out great hits like they did last year, then the consolidation could just as easily break to the upside is my point.

  17. On August 8, 2017 at 12:34 pm,
    spanky says:

    This 6 month consolidation in $hui is not a consolidation of the move off of the January 2016 low, but a consolidation of the drop from 280 to 160. It’s a continuation pattern, which means the break will be down and will make a lower low than 160.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24HUI&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p96731563663&a=538651105&listNum=1

    • On August 8, 2017 at 12:45 pm,
      Matthew says:

      No way. This correction has done nothing to bring the new bull market into doubt.

      • On August 8, 2017 at 12:52 pm,
        spanky says:

        Like I said Matthew, the correction could go down to 110 and the bull would still be in tact. And again, while we may not see a low below the January 2016 low, the odds that we are going to new highs anytime soon are neglible. Look at the size the Ichimoku cloud on the monthly. HUI had its chance to break through in 2016 and then off the massive correction into December ’16. It needed to explode off that low, but didn’t. Instead it has churned sideways ever since, which at least to me suggests we are headed lower.

        I do personally think we are headed back under the lowest portion of the Ichimoku cloud on the monthly chart. The HUI might be a buy at that point, but its not going to break the 2016 high for another 2-3 years.

  18. On August 8, 2017 at 1:40 pm,
    Chartster says:

    When silver hits the high 13s again, it’s going to do a monster moonshot. I think that’s this year.

    • On August 8, 2017 at 1:51 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      If Silver went back down to $13 I’d probably buy some physical again, but I don’t expect it to make it down that far personally.

      • On August 8, 2017 at 1:51 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        Who am I kidding, I’d just load up on more Silver miners if spot went to $13 (hahaha!).

        • On August 8, 2017 at 2:36 pm,
          OOTB Jerry says:

          I will be buying Morgan silver dollars, when it hits $13….. 🙂

  19. On August 8, 2017 at 1:50 pm,
    Ebolan says:
  20. On August 8, 2017 at 2:01 pm,
    JohnK says:
  21. On August 8, 2017 at 2:14 pm,
    spanky says:

    Another hideous black candle in GDX. There is no way in hell today’s closing price marked a low. Any rise from here is a shorting opportunity.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p51482307685&a=538669780&listNum=1

    • On August 8, 2017 at 2:20 pm,
      GH says:

      That’s a reasonable interpretation of that chart. But I’ve got a rather bullish hourly GDX chart that makes me wonder if this isn’t one of those moments when the pattern changes. Price action will tell…I wouldn’t short until seeing the how the next bounce on the hourly chart shapes up.

      http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=60&yr=1&mn=8&dy=0&id=p21938148546&a=514473298

      sorry, non-stockcharts-subscribers can only see daily and weekly charts.

      • On August 8, 2017 at 2:28 pm,
        spanky says:

        No doubt we could get a bounce in the HUI from here. The key will be that it won’t take out it’s recent high near 200. Any bounce from here should be shorted, IMO. Even if its all roses for the miners in the last half of 2017, I85 for sure will be taken out before they go higher.

      • On August 8, 2017 at 2:34 pm,
        spanky says:

        GDX could easily test the now declining 50 hour MA at any time. Any touch of that MA is shorting opportunity.

        • On August 8, 2017 at 2:42 pm,
          GH says:

          Certainly, if it reacts weakly to the 50 hour ma, that would be a good place to consider a short. 23.09 and 23.86 are levels to watch.

          • On August 8, 2017 at 2:47 pm,
            spanky says:

            GDX is not going to break 23.09 for a long, long time. Once it finally breaks down out of this huge bearish base, it’s going down for the count and won’t recover for years.

          • On August 8, 2017 at 3:03 pm,
            GH says:

            Darn it. We’re screwed, I guess. LOL :=)

          • On August 8, 2017 at 4:11 pm,
            GH says:

            I’m gonna take the other side of that bet. I think we see 23.09 very soon.

        • On August 8, 2017 at 2:45 pm,
          GH says:

          One way or another, I do believe interesting action is imminent:

          http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=D&yr=6&mn=6&dy=0&id=p93991422339&a=480387695

        • On August 8, 2017 at 3:05 pm,
          GH says:

          Picture perfect 1.5+ year wedge formation in daily $gold:$hui….

          http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD%3A%24HUI&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p20204430194&a=538675581

          • On August 8, 2017 at 3:16 pm,
            spanky says:

            The downthrust below the 200 WMA in that ratio was clearly needed to reset bearish sentiment in the miners . Well, that bearish sentiment has been more than fully cleansed. Looks like a huge bottoming pattern to me in the ratio, which should be the deathknell for miners.

          • On August 8, 2017 at 3:18 pm,
            spanky says:

            Huge inverse H&S on that chart. The writing is on the wall.

          • On August 8, 2017 at 5:07 pm,
            BDC says:

            A hookah would go well with that chart!

          • On August 8, 2017 at 7:28 pm,
            GH says:

            charting can definitely be a trip 😉

  22. On August 8, 2017 at 2:25 pm,
    spanky says:

    HL is for sure going sub-4.50 and has a chance to get down to its 50 month MA at 3.66 on this next crash lower in the miners.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HL&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p00249492046&a=538671676&listNum=1

  23. On August 8, 2017 at 2:59 pm,
    Jason says:

    I am sitting on about 60% profits on crypto this year.

    • On August 8, 2017 at 3:54 pm,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      Tell BOB how you done it……..

      • On August 8, 2017 at 3:55 pm,
        OOTB Jerry says:

        I bet you did not listen to Peter……. lol

  24. On August 8, 2017 at 3:53 pm,
    OOTB Jerry says:

    KIM…..says to Donald…….he might bomb GUAM………zh

    • On August 8, 2017 at 3:53 pm,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      gold should go up on that note…………..wishful thinking…… 🙂

      • On August 9, 2017 at 4:52 am,
        OOTB Jerry says:

        Gold up…….Kim effect…….

  25. On August 8, 2017 at 5:00 pm,
    Ozibatla says:

    I thought bitcoin would experience a crash of sorts at $2000. Ditto for $3000. It surely happens soon… I agree with John. Ethereum looks the goods regardong cryptos at the moment.

    • On August 8, 2017 at 7:04 pm,
      JohnK says:

      Oz
      I was being sarcastic about Bitcoin crashing. Just for those who still regard me as a fool.
      As I type Ethereum is back to its highs. My point is that if you are going to put some money into cryptos your timing is important.
      Remember when I said to buy Bitcoin on a pull back? Well the pull back never came.Not only that the Bitcoin chain forked August 1st giving everybody that had Bitcoin at the time equal amounts of Bitcoin Cash.So long story short if you were waiting for a pullback to get into Bitcoin you missed out on the free Bitcoin Cash.
      Something is going to happen to scare the crap out of everybody again. That will be the time to get in on the cheap.Always remember that there is nothing like Gold in a crisis.
      Thanks to Big Al I had 10% of my wealth in physical gold years before there were such things as crypto currencies.

      • On August 8, 2017 at 9:36 pm,
        Ozibatla says:

        Thanks for clarifying John. I didnt get into bitcoin when it was real cheap and therefore dont feel comfortable doing so now, but that sits fine with me.
        I do find the behaviour in the bitcoin market quiye interesting and think it does confirm the level of fear in the world to a certain extent.

  26. On August 8, 2017 at 6:27 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    ‘BITCOEN’ TO BECOME FIRST ELECTRONIC CURRENCY SPECIFICALLY FOR JEWS

    BYSHOSHANA KRANISH AUGUST 8, 2017

    > Bank of Israel mulls regulating, recognizing Bitcoin virtual currency
    > At TEDx in Tel Aviv, talk of advancing crypto currencies like Bitcoin

    http://www.jpost.com/Diaspora/BitCoen-to-become-first-electronic-currency-specifically-for-Jews-501885

  27. On August 8, 2017 at 7:08 pm,
    JohnK says:

    Hi Shad:
    I left you a post under Peter Boockvar regarding the Gold opportunity in Labrador.
    Shawn Ryan could be on to something.

    • On August 9, 2017 at 7:30 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Hi JohnK – I did go back and see those comments on Gold in Labrador and also in Newfoundland and believe Shawn Ryan is a good jockey to bet on.

      We did discuss Torq and also my favorite in that are Anaconda mining 2 days ago. If you search for either name then those blogs should come up. Bottom line the work being done in those jurisdictions of Canada is very exciting, and most investors still don’t have it on their radars.

      For now we’ll celebrate the discoveries in Australia or the Golden Triangle or Red Lake…… but Labrador and Newfoundland are finally getting some interest and investors are hitting the bid.

      Ever Upward!

      • On August 9, 2017 at 7:35 am,
        Excelsior says:

        After reviewing some of the old Osisko drilling and work done on Goldboro by Orex Exploration (that Anaconda Mining acquired) that they have a much larger resource and higher grade zones that will impact and change the mining method and economics, once they dewater the underground tunnels and so more exploration underground. This company is hardly on anyone’s radar right now, but over the next year, if they get in in there and really hit the same kinds of results, then their share prices will be re-rated higher multiple-fold.

        Cheers!

        • On August 9, 2017 at 7:38 am,
          Excelsior says:

          Sometimes it takes coming into an old project and reinterpreting the best path forward with fresh eyes or a different geological thesis, or utilizing a different mining method. If (ANX) can pull that off with Goldboro as they develop it and move it towards production, then I think it could be the discovery that kicks off that whole area play.

          Also, as you mentioned, Shawn Ryan and team are quality and their company may lock into the mother-lode as well. Fun times.

  28. On August 8, 2017 at 10:49 pm,
    Ozibatla says:

    Just learnt that the CFTC granted the first ever exchange license to a bitcoin options service. This could perhaps put a solid bullish floor under the current bitcoin price. Of course this is dependent on how much extra money could flow into the market as a consequence but this is an interesting development.

    • On August 9, 2017 at 4:45 am,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      or More govt control and oversight….?…

      • On August 9, 2017 at 4:47 am,
        OOTB Jerry says:

        Central Banks sure do not like the idea of losing control of the currency…….and their false weights and measures.

      • On August 9, 2017 at 7:35 am,
        Ozibatla says:

        More than plausible Jerry.

        • On August 9, 2017 at 7:49 am,
          OOTB Jerry says:

          Ozi…….I agree

  29. On August 9, 2017 at 5:01 am,
    OOTB Jerry says:

    RUSSIA LAUNCHES ……$100 BILLION BITCOIN…..MINING OPERATION……zh

    • On August 9, 2017 at 5:01 am,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      Tulip mania….or trend change……..

      • On August 9, 2017 at 5:23 am,
        OOTB Jerry says:

        Goldman targets bitcoin to $3915…..zh wed

    • On August 9, 2017 at 8:12 am,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      correction not billions only millions…………