S&P 500 Companies See Worst Price Reaction to Positive EPS Surprises since Q2 2011
The lack of reaction from stocks after this recent positive earnings season was outlined by Peter Boockvar in last week’s weekend show. This post from FactSet further outlines this point. While this could simply be an one off event it also could be a more significant sign that liquidity is starting to dry up and the bull market is starting to come to an end…
Click here for the original posting.
As of Friday, more than 90% of the companies in the S&P 500 have reported earnings for the second quarter. Of these companies, 73% have reported actual EPS above the mean EPS estimate, which is above the five-year average of 68%. In aggregate, earnings have exceeded expectations by 6.1%, which is also above the five-year average of 4.1%. Due to these upside surprises, the earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 has improved to 10.2% today from 6.4% on June 30.
Given the stronger performance of companies relative to analyst EPS estimates and the improvement in the growth rate over the past few weeks, how has the market responded to upside EPS surprises during the Q2 earnings season?
Companies in the S&P 500 that reported positive earnings surprises for Q2 have seen a decrease in price of 0.3% on average from two days before the company reported actual results through two days after the company reported actual results. Over the past five years, companies in the S&P 500 that have reported positive earnings surprises have witnessed a 1.4% increase in price on average during this four-day window.
If the final percentage for the quarter is -0.3%, it will mark the first time since Q2 2011 (-2.1%) in which S&P 500 companies that reported positive earnings surprises recorded an average price decline over this 4-day window.
Of the 331 S&P 500 companies that have reported positive earnings surprises for Q2, 159 (or 48%) recorded a decline in price over this period. The average price decline of these 159 companies over this four-day window was -4.0%. Nine of these 159 companies witnessed a double-digit decline in price, led by Pioneer Natural Resources (-16%). After the closing bell on August 1, Pioneer Natural Resources reported actual (adjusted) EPS of $0.21, compared to the mean EPS estimate of $0.10. However, from July 28 through August 3, the price of the stock fell to $135.12 from $161.41.
Why is the market punishing companies (on average) that have reported positive earnings surprises? It is likely not due to forward EPS guidance or analyst revisions to EPS estimates for the third quarter. To date, fewer S&P 500 companies have issued negative EPS guidance and more S&P 500 companies have issued positive EPS guidance for Q3 2017 than average. In aggregate, analysts made smaller cuts than average to third quarter EPS estimates during the month of July.
Author’s Note: The Earnings Insight report will not be published on August 18 or August 25. The next edition of the report will be published on September 1.
The Elite are Stealth Builders ! TV is a Apps thime losser !
Next Virtual reality self killing !
James……….good video on Rothchilde and North Korea………
Interesting, ….
P or PPP got slaughtered today
Are they gonna make it
Only Him can tell Exclusive ! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HYLqzhs3KYE&t=6s
NYSE to Suspend Trading in Primero Mining, Commence Delisting
https://www.streetinsider.com/dr/news.php?id=13201505&gfv=1
Train Wreck
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4098688-resource-sector-digest-primero-train-wreck-101
It got kicked off the NYSE
When Claude Resources was delisted in 2013, it marked a major low and a 2,000%+ rise followed. Primero is no Claude but a major low still might be near.
More talk at zh………Bitcoin going to $7500…….and to $50,000 by 2027…..
Osisko keeps banging out nice results
http://www.osiskomining.com/news/index.php?content_id=253
ira’s nd of day
https://youtu.be/TbeQNl85KoY?t=33
Looks like Max Keiser…..has left England, ……no more free speech….more corruption in your face……………
some comments on Violence in Virginia:
http://dcs.megaphone.fm/PPY7811252754.mp3?key=9546f1b9c60de1d24a25e32eeb48c1d4
US Nuclear power:
https://btr-sfo-grass-1.blogtalkradio.com/1001633496-1120484211.mp3
This would be funny if it was not serious:
XAU:GOLD is at Schiff fork support while the 89 week MA is bullishly crossing above the 233 week MA for the first time in over a decade. Big picture, the miners haven’t looked so good versus gold in decades.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24XAU%3A%24GOLD&p=W&yr=3&mn=9&dy=0&id=p46616188399&a=539592885
Silver stinks again…………$16.79…….
16.74……..
Silver stealers.net…………..good clue………
Kim on the sidelines……….what a joke , I said it was a non event…….
Silver stinks……….$16.60
Tuesday morning Au&Ag.
Miss Misery
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CSHZ3pdwcF4
HA, Ha……..good one for today……..
Nono halted again
oops novo not nono
VANCOUVER, British Columbia, Aug. 15, 2017 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Novo Resources Corp. (“Novo” or the “Company”) (TSX-V:NVO) (OTCQX: NSRPF) is pleased to announce that, further to its news release dated May 26, 2017, it has signed definitive agreements to farm-in and joint venture gold rights with Artemis Resources Limited (“Artemis”), an ASX-listed exploration and mining company, on Artemis’ 1,256 square km exploration package in the Karratha region of Western Australia. Mineral holdings subject to this agreement are part of Novo’s greater Karratha gold project that includes Novo’s 100% land holdings, the Comet Well property and the recently announced option agreement covering the Pipeline property.
Novo will farm-in to 50% of gold (and other minerals necessarily mined with gold) in conglomerate and/or paleoplacer style mineralization in Artemis’ tenements within 100km of the City of Karratha, including at Purdy’s Reward (“the Gold Rights”). The Gold Rights do not include (i) gold disclosed in Artemis’ existing (at 18 May 2017) JORC compliant Resources and Reserves or (ii) gold which is not within conglomerate and/or paleoplacer style mineralization or (iii) minerals other than gold. Artemis’ Mt Oscar tenement is excluded from the definitive agreements.
The farmin commitment requires Novo to expend AUD $2 million on exploration within two years of satisfying conditions precedent in the definitive agreements. The relevant conditions precedent to the definitive agreements include Novo obtaining any necessary TSX Venture Exchange approvals for the issue of 4,000,000 common shares to Artemis and the issue of those shares within 10 business days of the agreements being signed, subject to the receipt of TSX Venture Exchange approval. The shares will be subject to a twelve month hold period (inclusive of the required four month statutory hold period). The definitive agreements are not subject to any other conditions.
Yep silver does stink at the moment Jerry. So too does gold. This doesnt bode well for the immediate future for both metals. Guess Rambus mightve been right about that downward overhead resistance in the PMs.
They the central fed fraud banksters have to keep everyone’s attention on the stock market…..
Lithium stocks touching four month high:
LTUM .076
CRE 1.46
SRJ .035
Lithium Stocks 3 weeks continued strength
CYP .11
LTUM .076
BFD .23
CRE 1.46
LACDF .881
AABVF .11
AMLM .038
HL is approaching its rising 100 WMA at 4.53. That is one buy point. The next would be at around 3.66 which corresponds to the rising 50 month MA, IMO. The first would represent a normal correction, the latter would probably entail a bit of very quick waterfall action. I think if you are a true PM bull, you would buy HL hand over fist if it tags 3.66.
I predicted GCC was going to at least re-trest its 2017 low, and it looks like I will be right.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GCC&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p27893605765&a=539644926&listNum=1
Can $CDNX hold on here, or will it take a trip down to the 100 WMA?
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24CDNX&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p51054248323&a=539647555&listNum=1
I don’t think miners will rally without $CDNX. To me it looks like it is going to break down and try to tag that 100 WMA.
The monthly $CDNX chart is basically neutral, but momentum in terms of stochastics is pointed down and are right at the 50 level. If its going to turn up, its got to do it this month and relatively hard. Otherwise momentum indicates further downside, IMO. The bollingers are narrow enough on the monthly chart for a trending move to begin, IMO.
Can i post a Video ? Al Cory ?