Richard Postma - The Doctor Is In – Thu 7 Sep, 2017

A look at the gold stock sector

Doc and I have been chatting a lot about the gold price but in this segment we look at gold stocks in general. From the daily chart to the monthly chart for GDX we assess the potential of a pullback with the metals as well as the upside potential.

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Comments:
  1. On September 7, 2017 at 6:55 am,
    Dick Tracy says:

    Off topic, the insurance companies will not be paying out after Irma is gone, they will however declare bankruptcy, and the banks in Florida and The Caribbean that sell insurance will be in big trouble. DT

    • On September 7, 2017 at 7:11 am,
      Dick Tracy says:

      The real estate offices on Flagler Street in Miami won’t be selling all those overpriced homes if Irma hits Miami this weekend. Is this a replay of the summer of 1926. DT

  2. On September 7, 2017 at 6:55 am,
    bonzo barzini says:

    Matthew, USAS has doubled since July 9th. Have you sold any yet?

    • On September 7, 2017 at 7:19 am,
      Matthew says:

      Bonzo, yes I have. It is extremely overbought and reached an interesting resistance level yesterday…

      http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=USAS&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=13&id=p33419815098&a=510636449

      • On September 7, 2017 at 7:22 am,
        Matthew says:
      • On September 7, 2017 at 7:37 am,
        bonzo barzini says:

        Thanks, Matthew. I was hoping to hold on till it was a long term gain, but that’s next spring.

        • On September 7, 2017 at 8:49 am,
          Matthew says:

          Well I believe you could do that and be very happy but can’t recommend not taking profits here. Either way, you win.

          • On September 7, 2017 at 5:39 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Americas Silver has been stellar action lately. I trimmed some of my USAS yesterday and today. Still very bullish on the stock and PMs are still ratcheting higher, but I wanted to move some over into other plays that may still make a larger move higher.

    • On September 7, 2017 at 7:28 am,
      Matthew says:

      After a pullback/consolidation, I think it can double again before most of us might expect.

      http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=USA.TO&p=W&yr=6&mn=5&dy=0&id=p39273435854&a=489485290

      • On September 7, 2017 at 8:25 am,
        Bob UK says:

        Do you have a pull-back target Matthew?

        • On September 7, 2017 at 8:51 am,
          Matthew says:

          Not yet. It needs to crack first.

          • On September 7, 2017 at 8:56 am,
            Bob UK says:

            Roger.

          • On September 7, 2017 at 9:11 am,
            Matthew says:

            If we’ve already seen the short term high, my guess is that roughly 5.40 is the first level of support. The way it gets there should tell us if we should be looking lower.

  3. On September 7, 2017 at 7:02 am,
    Dick Tracy says:

    USA has just started to move, they are opening their third mine at the end of this month and with USAS past $4 and USA past $5 CDN the institutions will be buying in. Not a time to sell especially with their low float. DT

    • On September 7, 2017 at 7:54 am,
      PRICHARD/DOC says:

      DT; you could be right. It appears that it wants to break out on the monthly chart which would be huge. I wish I owned more of this stock.

      • On September 7, 2017 at 8:21 am,
        bonzo barzini says:

        In that case I guess I’ll hold my USAS at least till it becomes a long term holding.

        • On September 7, 2017 at 8:56 am,
          Matthew says:

          The monthly stochastics couldn’t look better and it has already poked through the upper monthly Bollinger band. The MACD looks great too — the best it’s ever looked, in fact (for buying).

          http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=USA.TO&p=M&yr=20&mn=11&dy=30&id=p98262703126&a=450739630

        • On September 7, 2017 at 8:59 am,
          Matthew says:

          Today’s resistance is coming, at least in part, from the monthly Keltner channel (@ 6.03).

        • On September 7, 2017 at 11:00 am,
          Matthew says:

          My son sold 33% of his USAS this morning to take advantage of better deals (including Impact Silver).

          • On September 7, 2017 at 5:40 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Just call me sonny then….. 🙂

          • On September 7, 2017 at 5:41 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            I did the same.

          • On September 7, 2017 at 5:44 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            I also trimmed my Excellon back a bit today because it’s been on a tear as well.

            Here is a 1 Month chart in some of these Silver producers & developers that I follow closely.

            http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?BHS.V,EXN.TO,USA.TO,AXR.TO,SCZ.V,GPR.TO,SVM.TO,CDE,MYA.V,IPT.V&p=1&O=111000

          • On September 7, 2017 at 5:51 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Here are some of the other Silver Developers & Explorers over the last month:

            http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?DV.V,SVG.V,AZS.V,SVB.TO,BTT.V,DEF.V,VML.V,KTN.V,MMG.V,BCK.V&p=1&O=111000

          • On September 7, 2017 at 5:54 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            I just added in some Silvercrest because it has been rather stagnant, and I like their exploration team, and believe some of their results have been quite interesting.

            SilverCrest Announces Additional Drill Results, Expands Phase II Program; Intercepts 1.9 Metres Grading 8,803 gpt AgEq* at Las Chispas
            August 3, 2017

            http://silvercrestmetals.com/news/index.php?content_id=321

          • On September 7, 2017 at 5:56 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            SilverCrest Intercepts 7.6 Metres Grading 502 gpt AgEq* at Babicanora; Expands Phase II Drill Program
            June 22, 2017

            http://silvercrestmetals.com/news/2017/index.php?content_id=319

          • On September 8, 2017 at 6:17 am,
            Dick Tracy says:

            Excelsior, Do you remember what Frances said in Pee Wee’s “Big Adventure”, if you sold your USA, you will be sorry Pee Wee Herman. HAAAAAAA! DT

          • On September 8, 2017 at 7:02 am,
            Excelsior says:

            DT – I’ll definitely be adding back on pullbacks, as it is one of my favorite Silver/Zinc miners and I’ve been in and out of it for years. I still have a small position in it, but trimmed a big chunck the last 2 days to pull profits, as it’s had a nice run, and as we can see so far today, that was a good call as it has been retreating a bit.

            I may nibble a little bit more today actually, but my position was larger than I wanted, and there were other interesting companies that haven’t had the initial move out of the corrective leg from the last year or so that needed a little fortifying.

            I’m still very bullish on Americas Silver though for the medium to long term. Cheers!

          • On September 8, 2017 at 7:04 am,
            Excelsior says:

            BTW – I loved the Pee Wees Big Adventure reference (too funny!)

            https://thatwasabitmental.files.wordpress.com/2012/06/peeweesbigadventure-1.jpg

    • On September 8, 2017 at 7:05 am,
      Excelsior says:

      (USAS) (USA) Americas Silver Corp. :USAS-US: Earnings Analysis: Q2, 2017 By the Numbers : September 7, 2017
      September 7, 2017 – by CapitalCube

      > Summary numbers: Revenues of USD 17.18 million, Net Earnings of USD 0.88 million.
      > Gross margins widened from -0.84% to 12.24% compared to the same period last year, operating (EBITDA) margins now 17.68% from -1.10%.
      > Year-on-year change in operating cash flow of 6,676.55% is about the same as the change in earnings, likely no significant movement in accruals or reserves.
      > Earnings growth from operating margin improvements as well as one-time items.

      http://www.capitalcube.com/blog/index.php/americas-silver-corp-usas-us-earnings-analysis-q2-2017-by-the-numbers-september-7-2017/?yptr=yahoo

  4. On September 7, 2017 at 7:59 am,
    CFS says:
  5. On September 7, 2017 at 8:05 am,
    Wolfster says:
  6. On September 7, 2017 at 9:04 am,
    Matthew says:

    I don’t think most experts have been bullish enough the Canadian dollar but I bet they’re figuring it out now! It looks superb…

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24CDW&p=W&yr=2&mn=7&dy=0&id=p58410946954&a=493718945

    • On September 7, 2017 at 10:35 am,
      bonzo barzini says:

      This could mean that commodities are going up.

      • On September 7, 2017 at 12:23 pm,
        Wolfster says:

        Also had a rate hike in Canada yesterday

    • On September 7, 2017 at 1:16 pm,
      Matthew says:

      Anyone who looked at that C$ chart above should look at it again. The big blue fork needed to be updated due to the lower low in the spring. The adjustment has lowered the next resistance significantly to just over 84 — which is just above the 2015 high. Here it is with some time added:

      http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24CDW&p=W&yr=3&mn=3&dy=0&id=p92495527894&a=493718945

  7. On September 7, 2017 at 9:35 am,
    Matthew says:

    I warned that the U.S. dollar was bearish when it mattered. Here’s a simple (and unaltered) chart I posted in March:

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=UUP&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=11&id=p54658871732&a=511365632

  8. On September 7, 2017 at 10:16 am,
    Tom says:

    long PLAY

  9. On September 7, 2017 at 10:17 am,
    Tony says:

    Wow – Primero getting slammed.
    Not sure they are going to make.
    Seems only hope is a buy out.

    • On September 7, 2017 at 10:36 am,
      bonzo barzini says:

      Maybe MUX could buy the rest of PPP@.03

      • On September 7, 2017 at 6:05 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        Uuuuggghhhh! Stop the bleeding…… 🙁

        It is not even $PPP anymore, but rather $PPPMF (PPP Mother Frackers)

        • On September 7, 2017 at 6:20 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          I really thought when the strike ended, and they made some headway on the Mexican tax issues (which they did on both fronts) that the shares would snap back a little more, as they were already at a ridiculous level.

          However, now that they have ditched any more exploration on San Dimas this year and are mostly done wrapping a transaction to sell it as well, then it will help out their balance sheet, but they’ll have sold both their producing mines this year.

          All they’ll have left are a few development projects and exploration projects at that point. I expect them to announce the sale of San Dimas in the next month or 2.

  10. On September 7, 2017 at 11:29 am,
    Jay Linn says:

    Doc, did you buy back Novo today? There have been some good news since you sold it.

    • On September 7, 2017 at 12:55 pm,
      PRICHARD/DOC says:

      Jay, not yet. Momentum is to the downside yet along with the fact the 20 day MA of the BBs have been compromised. It looks like I’ll be taking a small position in the next couple of weeks and then add over time as the technicals indicate.

      • On September 8, 2017 at 7:39 am,
        Jay Linn says:

        Thanks Doc!

  11. On September 7, 2017 at 12:30 pm,
    olderman says:

    Something seems to be quietly cooking with GMV Minerals: GMV: TSX-V

  12. On September 7, 2017 at 1:05 pm,
    Matthew says:

    The miners continue to act very well. Let’s see if they can remain strong into the weekly close tomorrow…

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24HUI&p=W&yr=7&mn=0&dy=0&id=p97861576005&a=370540630

  13. On September 7, 2017 at 3:16 pm,
    pardu says:

    Doc, as metals move higher and one wishes to purchase the actual bullion, do you think silver bullion coins are a better bet than gold or visa versa? And, is a pullback in the cards near term making it a better time to purchase?

  14. On September 7, 2017 at 3:57 pm,
    PRICHARD/DOC says:

    Pardu, I’m not going to purchase the actual bullion here but am hoping for a pullback. I can’t believe we’re going to knife right through 1375, 1400, and 1450 for gold on this run. These are major resistance levels and to get through all of them would be herculean. On a pullback, I an personally going to be purchasing gold coins instead of silver since I own a lot of silver in comparison to my position in gold bullion. I don’t think either of the metals should pull back significantly due to the narrowing of the BBs on the monthly charts.

    • On September 7, 2017 at 5:06 pm,
      pardu says:

      As always, thanks Doc

    • On September 7, 2017 at 10:20 pm,
      Ozibatla says:

      Agreed Doc.

  15. On September 7, 2017 at 5:46 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    Gold: $1,400 Here We Come?
    The precious metal is climbing today. Will it keep climbing?
    ByJohanna Bennett – Sept. 7, 2017

    http://www.barrons.com/articles/gold-1-400-here-we-come-1504797571?mod=yahoobarrons&ru=yahoo&yptr=yahoo

    • On September 7, 2017 at 5:47 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      The Most Important Gold Charts We’re Watching Today

      SEPTEMBER 7, 2017 BY JC

      http://allstarcharts.com/gold-charts-need-watching/

    • On September 7, 2017 at 10:22 pm,
      Ozibatla says:

      I would be surprised if it hits 1400 at this stage. Mind you I was looking for a pullback at the 1330 level, so who knows…

      • On September 8, 2017 at 7:12 am,
        Excelsior says:

        Ozibatla, I do believe Gold has a shot at $1400 later this year, but yes I agree with you that it seems likely to have a corrective move first to build up the juice to get through $1377.50 (the high from 2016).

        After Gold & Silver have a “Pause That Refreshes” then we may see them make a move at a higher high for 2017 closer to the $1400 mark.

        • On September 8, 2017 at 8:35 am,
          Matthew says:

          I think it will go well above 1400 before the end of the year.

        • On September 8, 2017 at 3:26 pm,
          Ozibatla says:

          Good thoughts Excelsior.

          If and when the metals do pullback and consolidate it would be good to see them do so at a figure not far under where we currently sit. That way they put in a nice support level to bounce back off when another rally ensues. $1300 therefore is key I believe as this will ensure that the former solid resistance level has now become solid support.

          $1400 for gold and $20 for silver would be a good result at years end.

  16. On September 7, 2017 at 5:57 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    Charts of The Day: Silver
    Even though the rally in precious metals has already run for quite some time, silver is looking very interesting in terms of more upside potential ahead:

    The Hedgeless Horseman – September 7, 2017

    http://www.thehedgelesshorseman.com/gold/chart-day-silver/

  17. On September 7, 2017 at 5:58 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    We’re Going to Need More Lithium
    There’s plenty in the ground to meet the needs of an electric car future, but not enough mines.

    By Jessica Shankleman, Tom Biesheuvel, Joe Ryan, and Dave Merrill

    https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2017-lithium-battery-future/

  18. On September 7, 2017 at 8:54 pm,
    Skeeta says:

    Well gold futures popped through the 1353.10 level that Rick A mentioned yesterday.
    So lets see if we get that run up to at least 1474.00 that he was looking for?
    Cheers.

    • On September 8, 2017 at 7:14 am,
      Excelsior says:

      That woudn’t hurt my feelings, but we may need a breather and move down first as the resistance at $1377.50 (last year’s high) may smack gold down on the first attempt.

      • On September 8, 2017 at 7:14 am,
        Excelsior says:

        woudn’t = wouldn’t