A look at the gold stock sector
Doc and I have been chatting a lot about the gold price but in this segment we look at gold stocks in general. From the daily chart to the monthly chart for GDX we assess the potential of a pullback with the metals as well as the upside potential.
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The real estate offices on Flagler Street in Miami won’t be selling all those overpriced homes if Irma hits Miami this weekend. Is this a replay of the summer of 1926. DT
Matthew, USAS has doubled since July 9th. Have you sold any yet?
Bonzo, yes I have. It is extremely overbought and reached an interesting resistance level yesterday…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=USAS&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=13&id=p33419815098&a=510636449
Thanks, Matthew. I was hoping to hold on till it was a long term gain, but that’s next spring.
Well I believe you could do that and be very happy but can’t recommend not taking profits here. Either way, you win.
Americas Silver has been stellar action lately. I trimmed some of my USAS yesterday and today. Still very bullish on the stock and PMs are still ratcheting higher, but I wanted to move some over into other plays that may still make a larger move higher.
After a pullback/consolidation, I think it can double again before most of us might expect.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=USA.TO&p=W&yr=6&mn=5&dy=0&id=p39273435854&a=489485290
Do you have a pull-back target Matthew?
Not yet. It needs to crack first.
Roger.
If we’ve already seen the short term high, my guess is that roughly 5.40 is the first level of support. The way it gets there should tell us if we should be looking lower.
USA has just started to move, they are opening their third mine at the end of this month and with USAS past $4 and USA past $5 CDN the institutions will be buying in. Not a time to sell especially with their low float. DT
DT; you could be right. It appears that it wants to break out on the monthly chart which would be huge. I wish I owned more of this stock.
In that case I guess I’ll hold my USAS at least till it becomes a long term holding.
The monthly stochastics couldn’t look better and it has already poked through the upper monthly Bollinger band. The MACD looks great too — the best it’s ever looked, in fact (for buying).
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=USA.TO&p=M&yr=20&mn=11&dy=30&id=p98262703126&a=450739630
Today’s resistance is coming, at least in part, from the monthly Keltner channel (@ 6.03).
My son sold 33% of his USAS this morning to take advantage of better deals (including Impact Silver).
Just call me sonny then….. 🙂
I did the same.
I also trimmed my Excellon back a bit today because it’s been on a tear as well.
Here is a 1 Month chart in some of these Silver producers & developers that I follow closely.
Here are some of the other Silver Developers & Explorers over the last month:
I just added in some Silvercrest because it has been rather stagnant, and I like their exploration team, and believe some of their results have been quite interesting.
SilverCrest Announces Additional Drill Results, Expands Phase II Program; Intercepts 1.9 Metres Grading 8,803 gpt AgEq* at Las Chispas
August 3, 2017
SilverCrest Intercepts 7.6 Metres Grading 502 gpt AgEq* at Babicanora; Expands Phase II Drill Program
June 22, 2017
http://silvercrestmetals.com/news/2017/index.php?content_id=319
Excelsior, Do you remember what Frances said in Pee Wee’s “Big Adventure”, if you sold your USA, you will be sorry Pee Wee Herman. HAAAAAAA! DT
DT – I’ll definitely be adding back on pullbacks, as it is one of my favorite Silver/Zinc miners and I’ve been in and out of it for years. I still have a small position in it, but trimmed a big chunck the last 2 days to pull profits, as it’s had a nice run, and as we can see so far today, that was a good call as it has been retreating a bit.
I may nibble a little bit more today actually, but my position was larger than I wanted, and there were other interesting companies that haven’t had the initial move out of the corrective leg from the last year or so that needed a little fortifying.
I’m still very bullish on Americas Silver though for the medium to long term. Cheers!
BTW – I loved the Pee Wees Big Adventure reference (too funny!)
https://thatwasabitmental.files.wordpress.com/2012/06/peeweesbigadventure-1.jpg
(USAS) (USA) Americas Silver Corp. :USAS-US: Earnings Analysis: Q2, 2017 By the Numbers : September 7, 2017
September 7, 2017 – by CapitalCube
> Summary numbers: Revenues of USD 17.18 million, Net Earnings of USD 0.88 million.
> Gross margins widened from -0.84% to 12.24% compared to the same period last year, operating (EBITDA) margins now 17.68% from -1.10%.
> Year-on-year change in operating cash flow of 6,676.55% is about the same as the change in earnings, likely no significant movement in accruals or reserves.
> Earnings growth from operating margin improvements as well as one-time items.
Ira morning:
Good write up on excelsior
http://www.theaureport.com/pub/na/excelsior-mining-impresses-markets-by-receiving-app-permit-for-gunnison
I don’t think most experts have been bullish enough the Canadian dollar but I bet they’re figuring it out now! It looks superb…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24CDW&p=W&yr=2&mn=7&dy=0&id=p58410946954&a=493718945
This could mean that commodities are going up.
Also had a rate hike in Canada yesterday
Anyone who looked at that C$ chart above should look at it again. The big blue fork needed to be updated due to the lower low in the spring. The adjustment has lowered the next resistance significantly to just over 84 — which is just above the 2015 high. Here it is with some time added:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24CDW&p=W&yr=3&mn=3&dy=0&id=p92495527894&a=493718945
I warned that the U.S. dollar was bearish when it mattered. Here’s a simple (and unaltered) chart I posted in March:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=UUP&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=11&id=p54658871732&a=511365632
Months earlier, in late December, I highlighted some negative divergences:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=UUP&p=D&yr=3&mn=3&dy=22&id=p03016711656&a=495538068
Here’s one from February:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=UUP&p=D&yr=1&mn=3&dy=22&id=p43371602664&a=491065247
long PLAY
Wow – Primero getting slammed.
Not sure they are going to make.
Seems only hope is a buy out.
Maybe MUX could buy the rest of PPP@.03
Uuuuggghhhh! Stop the bleeding…… 🙁
It is not even $PPP anymore, but rather $PPPMF (PPP Mother Frackers)
I really thought when the strike ended, and they made some headway on the Mexican tax issues (which they did on both fronts) that the shares would snap back a little more, as they were already at a ridiculous level.
However, now that they have ditched any more exploration on San Dimas this year and are mostly done wrapping a transaction to sell it as well, then it will help out their balance sheet, but they’ll have sold both their producing mines this year.
All they’ll have left are a few development projects and exploration projects at that point. I expect them to announce the sale of San Dimas in the next month or 2.
Doc, did you buy back Novo today? There have been some good news since you sold it.
Jay, not yet. Momentum is to the downside yet along with the fact the 20 day MA of the BBs have been compromised. It looks like I’ll be taking a small position in the next couple of weeks and then add over time as the technicals indicate.
Thanks Doc!
Something seems to be quietly cooking with GMV Minerals: GMV: TSX-V
The miners continue to act very well. Let’s see if they can remain strong into the weekly close tomorrow…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24HUI&p=W&yr=7&mn=0&dy=0&id=p97861576005&a=370540630
Doc, as metals move higher and one wishes to purchase the actual bullion, do you think silver bullion coins are a better bet than gold or visa versa? And, is a pullback in the cards near term making it a better time to purchase?
Pardu, I’m not going to purchase the actual bullion here but am hoping for a pullback. I can’t believe we’re going to knife right through 1375, 1400, and 1450 for gold on this run. These are major resistance levels and to get through all of them would be herculean. On a pullback, I an personally going to be purchasing gold coins instead of silver since I own a lot of silver in comparison to my position in gold bullion. I don’t think either of the metals should pull back significantly due to the narrowing of the BBs on the monthly charts.
As always, thanks Doc
Agreed Doc.
Gold: $1,400 Here We Come?
The precious metal is climbing today. Will it keep climbing?
ByJohanna Bennett – Sept. 7, 2017
The Most Important Gold Charts We’re Watching Today
SEPTEMBER 7, 2017 BY JC
Gold Is Nearing a 1-Year High, but Gold Stocks Are Lagging — Here’s Why
It all boils down to whether margin expansion will be temporary or sustainable for the industry.
Sean Williams – Sep 7, 2017
https://www.fool.com/investing/2017/09/07/gold-is-nearing-a-1-year-high-but-gold-stocks-are.aspx
I would be surprised if it hits 1400 at this stage. Mind you I was looking for a pullback at the 1330 level, so who knows…
Ozibatla, I do believe Gold has a shot at $1400 later this year, but yes I agree with you that it seems likely to have a corrective move first to build up the juice to get through $1377.50 (the high from 2016).
After Gold & Silver have a “Pause That Refreshes” then we may see them make a move at a higher high for 2017 closer to the $1400 mark.
I think it will go well above 1400 before the end of the year.
Good thoughts Excelsior.
If and when the metals do pullback and consolidate it would be good to see them do so at a figure not far under where we currently sit. That way they put in a nice support level to bounce back off when another rally ensues. $1300 therefore is key I believe as this will ensure that the former solid resistance level has now become solid support.
$1400 for gold and $20 for silver would be a good result at years end.
Charts of The Day: Silver
Even though the rally in precious metals has already run for quite some time, silver is looking very interesting in terms of more upside potential ahead:
The Hedgeless Horseman – September 7, 2017
We’re Going to Need More Lithium
There’s plenty in the ground to meet the needs of an electric car future, but not enough mines.
By Jessica Shankleman, Tom Biesheuvel, Joe Ryan, and Dave Merrill
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2017-lithium-battery-future/
Well gold futures popped through the 1353.10 level that Rick A mentioned yesterday.
So lets see if we get that run up to at least 1474.00 that he was looking for?
Cheers.
That woudn’t hurt my feelings, but we may need a breather and move down first as the resistance at $1377.50 (last year’s high) may smack gold down on the first attempt.
woudn’t = wouldn’t
Off topic, the insurance companies will not be paying out after Irma is gone, they will however declare bankruptcy, and the banks in Florida and The Caribbean that sell insurance will be in big trouble. DT