Richard Postma - The Doctor Is In – Wed 13 Sep, 2017

Further comments on the US dollar and wage growth

With the dollar moving up today Doc and I take another look at the weekly chart to assess if this is the start of a dollar run. Overall however we are still skeptical that the dollar can make it back to 100+ on the dollar index. We also look at other markets that are impacted by a dollar bounce.

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Comments:
  1. On September 13, 2017 at 1:17 pm,
    CFS says:

    Doc, or Excelsior do you have any suggestions for Indium miners?

    My previous holdings, South American and Argentex appear to have gone belly up.

    • On September 13, 2017 at 6:21 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Hey CFS – my only potential Indium miner (Adex Mining) went down long ago…. Most of the handful of old Indium stocks went down for the count years ago.

      The only one I’m even aware of any more is Crusader resources, but they’re just hovering on life support.

      http://www.crusaderresources.com/minerals/indium/

      • On September 13, 2017 at 6:26 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        There are a few Zinc companies that occasionally will produce a little Indium but I don’t think its a material worth pursuing for it’s own sake in most cases.

      • On September 13, 2017 at 6:50 pm,
        CFS says:

        Thanks. The vital component that permits touchscreen technology is the transparent conductor Indium tin oxide. While it is not used in large quantities, and I believe China has a strategic stockpile equivalent to ten years supply, if we get into trade wars with China and it holds back supply like it did with rare earths, the West has a problem.

        • On September 13, 2017 at 7:13 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          It’s an interesting strategic material. That’s interesting about the touchscreen tech using Indium/Tin oxide.

          If you want Tin exposure I’d throw out Metals X for further inspection:

          https://www.metalsx.com.au/tin/

          • On September 14, 2017 at 5:42 am,
            CFS says:

            It’s the indium that is vital.

  2. On September 13, 2017 at 1:55 pm,
    OOTB Jerry says:
    • On September 13, 2017 at 1:58 pm,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      , 2017 at 7:31 pm,
      Markedtofuture says:
      Jerry, here is a podcast on Voice-To-Skull Technology & Gang Stalking being done in Big Al’s neck of the woods. Around the 25 min mark, this security specialist whistleblower, claims the entire city of Seattle, Washington is being used as a social experiment.
      55 min mark, he calls out the social workers that are involved in the program to speak out.
      Electronic Harassment & Organized Stalking Insider Bryan Kofron
      Bryan Kofron is an insider to the electronic harassment & organized stalking programs.
      http://www.declassifieddocuments.com/2017/08/security-industry-specialist-bryan-kofron-aka-justin-carter.html
      DYODD…
      Patent For Microwave Voice-To-Skull Technology
      United States Patent 4,877,027 Brunkan October 31, 1989
      Hearing System
      Abstract
      Sound is induced in the head of a person by radiating the head with microwaves in the range of 100 megahertz to 10,000 megahertz that are modulated with a particular waveform. The waveform consists of frequency modulated bursts. Each burst is made up of ten to twenty uniformly spaced pulses grouped tightly together. The burst width is between 500 nanoseconds and 100 microseconds. The pulse width is in the range of 10 nanoseconds to 1 microsecond. The bursts are frequency modulated by the audio input to create the sensation of hearing in the person whose head is irradiated.
      Inventors: Brunkan; Wayne B. (P.O. Box 2411, Goleta, CA 93118) Appl. No.: 202679 Filed: June 6, 1988

      • On September 13, 2017 at 2:00 pm,
        OOTB Jerry says:

        BTW…………where is BIG OWL

        • On September 13, 2017 at 6:03 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          He mostly just does the KER politics segments now.

  3. On September 13, 2017 at 1:56 pm,
    Silverdollar says:

    On Rick’s target of 120 for the USD, we’re talking apples vs oranges here with he and Doc. Rick gave no timeline and Doc seems to be talking about the next month or so. What am I missing?

    • On September 13, 2017 at 7:39 pm,
      Chris says:

      Toss it in with his call for $880 gold……..

  4. On September 13, 2017 at 2:10 pm,
    bonzo barzini says:

    Doc, Gold keeps falling but NSRPF keeps going up. What price are you hoping to pay for it?

  5. On September 13, 2017 at 2:21 pm,
    bonzo barzini says:

    Trader Vic says the dollar may fall to .60 and Rick says it will rise to 1.20.
    I predict it will go somewhere in between…

    • On September 13, 2017 at 2:29 pm,
      Matthew says:

      .60 makes more sense than 1.20

      • On September 13, 2017 at 3:39 pm,
        bonzo barzini says:

        +1

        • On September 13, 2017 at 4:24 pm,
          Paul L says:

          I think it would settle in the 80’s for the longer term and not below 78 or 80.

          • On September 13, 2017 at 4:26 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            That makes sense to me as well Paul L.

          • On September 13, 2017 at 5:40 pm,
            Matthew says:

            The P&F chart using a three box reversal gives a price objective of 79 after a double bottom breakdown in July but, using a 5 box reversal, the P.O. is 64.33 following a bull trap at the end of June.

            I think if we polled bearish professionals, very few would have a new all-time low as their target — and that is exactly what we should expect if it is going to go there.

            Just like most bull markets, bear markets routinely overshoot the expectations of almost all observers. Remember all the people calling the Dow a bubble at 13,000 four years ago while even most bulls didn’t expect anything close to what has happened since?

            When I look at that monthly chart, I see the perfect setup for a new all-time low.

            That violent counter-trend move and breakout did an awful lot to get a lot of people confidently long/bullish despite the fact that the dollar had become more overbought than at any other time in the last 30 years. Such extremely lopsided bullishness is just what the bears needed.

            In addition, the action following the 2015 breakout has been bearish. The down-trending resistance-turned-support was tested several times until the monthly RSI(14) was “reset” to about 50 but the following move to a new high came with significant bearish divergences (which I pointed out at the top).

            I’m not going to lay out the fundamental case for a move into the 60s but it is a good one.

          • On September 13, 2017 at 6:00 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Matthew – you bring up an excellent point here:

            “Just like most bull markets, bear markets routinely overshoot the expectations of almost all observers.” — Matthew

            I’ll keep and open mind then that if the dollar really starts to drop that it could turn into a waterfall decline from the recent highs down to new lower lows.

            Very interesting to consider what would have happen if the greenback took a nose-dive.

          • On September 13, 2017 at 6:13 pm,
            Matthew says:

            It wouldn’t surprise me if it takes until 2023-24 to bottom — unless the central planners have other ideas.

          • On September 13, 2017 at 8:19 pm,
            GH says:

            I’d be surprised if the dollar doesn’t go lower than it did in 2008/9 at ~71, a few years out. But yes, assuming a ~15 year cycle, the last two took about 7 years to reach their low; this time that would put the low, like Matthew says, around 2023/4. Which seems like a reasonable time frame for the bull market in precious metals and commodities to unfold as well.

            http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USD&p=D&st=1980-01-01&en=2017-09-13&&id=p22610673719&a=544372318&listNum=17

            If one just took a line from the 1992 low, through the 2008 low, that would project to roughly a 64 low in 2023/4, corresponding to the five box reversal P&F target.

            I’ve never understood Rick’s deflation view. I assume the deflation he is looking for is actually already well underway, but in real money (gold), not greenbacks.

          • On September 13, 2017 at 9:56 pm,
            Matthew says:

            That’s right, the deflation has been obvious if you price things in real money. Yet, not one deflationist in a million can figure it out.

            The CRB dropped 85% versus gold since 2001 (gold went up 5-fold+ versus the CRB)…

            http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24CRB%3A%24GOLD&p=M&yr=20&mn=11&dy=0&id=p25797645293&a=370277015

          • On September 13, 2017 at 9:58 pm,
            Matthew says:

            Priced in the USDX, gold has already exceeded last year’s high. A rest here is not a bad thing.

            http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD%3A%24USD&p=W&yr=5&mn=3&dy=0&id=p04178453345&a=544441171

          • On September 13, 2017 at 10:02 pm,
            Matthew says:

            The CRB looks good compared to gold on the daily chart as well…

            http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24CRB%3A%24GOLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=5&dy=22&id=p21601086911&a=523710623

          • On September 14, 2017 at 7:46 am,
            GH says:

            Very interesting chart of $GOLD:$USDX !

    • On September 13, 2017 at 9:46 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      China Prepares Sale of $2 Billion in U.S.-Dollar Bonds

      By Manju Dalal and Carolyn Cui Published September 13, 2017

      “China is laying the groundwork for its first sale of U.S.-dollar sovereign bonds in more than a decade, a move toward expanding its ties with global investors as its economy improves.”

      “The government is preparing to sell $2 billion in bonds this month, and investment banks are pitching for a role in the deal, according to bankers in Hong Kong.”

      http://www.foxbusiness.com/features/2017/09/13/china-prepares-sale-2-billion-in-u-s-dollar-bonds.html

  6. On September 13, 2017 at 4:27 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    Cobalt, the technology enabling metal

    http://www.dartoncommodities.co.uk/cobalt/

  7. On September 13, 2017 at 4:27 pm,
    Paul L says:

    A bounce to 95 to 97 is very possible now.

    • On September 13, 2017 at 8:27 pm,
      GH says:

      I’m thinking ~95, as I don’t expect it to exceed the 200 day exponential moving average in the chart I posted above.

  8. On September 13, 2017 at 5:56 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    The Nickel Market: Investing Ahead of the Crowd – Part 1
    by @Leni Brian Leni P.Eng Founder – Junior Stock Review – September 11, 2017

    https://ceo.ca/@leni/the-nickel-market-investing-ahead-of-the-crowd-part-1

  9. On September 13, 2017 at 9:39 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    Boxed in: Life inside the ‘coffin cubicles’ of Hong Kong – in pictures

    Photographer Benny Lam has documented the suffocating living conditions in Hong Kong’s subdivided flats, recording the lives of these hidden communities

    Benny Lam – Wednesday 7 June 2017

    https://www.theguardian.com/cities/gallery/2017/jun/07/boxed-life-inside-hong-kong-coffin-cubicles-cage-homes-in-pictures

  10. On September 14, 2017 at 6:06 am,
    OOTB Jerry says: