Rick Ackerman’s Technical Forecasts – Wed 13 Sep, 2017

USD – Why Rick thinks we could see 120 on the USD index

Today Rick Ackerman and I focus on the USD. Rick has some comments on why he thinks the dollar will rise to his target of over 120 on the dollar index.

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Comments:
  1. On September 13, 2017 at 11:26 am,
    Dave says:

    They simply can’t and won’t pay appreciating dollars back. Period.
    So thinking it through, if you can’t pay your debts back your higher dollar theory is not going to happen.

    It is not in the worlds interest for a strong dollar.

  2. On September 13, 2017 at 11:42 am,
    Bob UK says:

    The UK is choc full of people from across Europe – they wouldn’t be in the UK if there was work for them back in France, Spain, Greece, Portugal, etc, etc.

    Strong Euro makes no sense to me whatsover.

    • On September 13, 2017 at 12:10 pm,
      CFS says:

      I believe Arabs and Africans are flocking to the UK because they can have a much improved life just living of welfare…..so who needs a job? Besides many have relatives/friends there too.

      • On September 13, 2017 at 1:09 pm,
        Bob UK says:

        Yes, that is the firghtening problem – because Labour politicians since tony blair have encouraged it.

        These people have come in staggering numbers, doo not speak English, do not have jobs or skills and are being housed, schooled, looked after by the NHS, given benefits, pensions and they make NO contribution whatsoever.

        They are reaping all the above benefits whilst they have never paid anything in – either financially or in terms of creating the British identity.

        Even worse, they are islamic and they are hell-bent on turning everywhere they go into some islamic hell-hole.

        I don’t care what colour someone’s skin is – black, brown, white, pink, yellow, olive, grey. I don’t care whether someone is a Sikh, Hindu, Christian, Jew, Atheist, Agnostic or a Jedi Warror but, bluntly, what islam is doing to thr UK and Europe fills me with a dread and anger.

        America is not as far along this hellish road as the UK is so I implore all Americans to speak out and fight back against the US ending up like the UK.

        Sweden is lost. Belgium is lost. France is lost. Germany will be lost eventually.

        Sorry, rant over.

        • On September 13, 2017 at 2:10 pm,
          irishtony says:

          Great rant, BOB. It echoes mine. Within the next 20 years the uk will have a muslim prime minter…IMO.

          • On September 13, 2017 at 2:11 pm,
            irishtony says:

            OOOPS…minister

          • On September 14, 2017 at 1:37 pm,
            Mike says:

            Glad you corrected your comment, Irishtony …

            Everyone knows that the prime minter is in the US. (we can mint better than anyone … USA USA USA).

            Rest of the world … please keep buying our treasuries … thanks!

        • On September 13, 2017 at 2:21 pm,
          CFS says:

          Bob UK,
          The frightful thing in the US is that there are already some scattered no go Islamic zones.
          Detroit and other parts of Michigan for example. Even parts of Texas.

  3. On September 13, 2017 at 11:49 am,
    Silverdollar says:

    Here’s Gary’s thoughts on the markets: http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1505305620.php
    It’s somewhat comical that Rick’s personal experience with Denver’s real estate market can imply a market top! Maybe he was simply overpriced!

  4. On September 13, 2017 at 11:50 am,
    pardu says:

    Rick, where do you see gold going in the near term and medium term with what you see happening in the dollar?

  5. On September 13, 2017 at 12:03 pm,
    CFS says:

    Fact: World economic data has been improving for over a year.

    Don’t believe me? Look up the Baltic Dry Index, which bottomed out in Feb, 2016, and has gone up by over a factor of four since bottoming.

    I don’t doubt Rick is one of the best Technical Analysts, but I have long worried about his deflationist position.

    I wonder about the low velocity of the dollar. Is it due to the combination of multiple QEs and high debt level all over the world, which produces plenty of banking liquidity but a reluctance of banks to lend because of lack of credit worthiness everywhere.

    Many pundits have been talking about a default in the dollar system, which I have always thought impossible because of the existence of both digital printing and failing that a physical printing press.

  6. On September 13, 2017 at 12:03 pm,
    OOTB Jerry says:
    • On September 13, 2017 at 12:06 pm,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      sorry, this is same as silverdollar. post…………..

      • On September 13, 2017 at 1:35 pm,
        Silverdollar says:

        not really

  7. On September 13, 2017 at 12:09 pm,
    OOTB Jerry says:
    • On September 13, 2017 at 12:10 pm,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      Hello……..is this the start of what is to come from the new commissioner at the cftc…….

      • On September 13, 2017 at 12:17 pm,
        OOTB Jerry says:

        Maybe to hopeful ………

  8. On September 13, 2017 at 12:22 pm,
    OOTB Jerry says:

    Fake News for the weather channel………..
    http://www.market-ticker.org/akcs-www?singlepost=3427395

  9. On September 13, 2017 at 12:24 pm,
    Paul L says:

    People have talking about the dollar crashing into the 60’s as mentioned on the weekend. It is still in an uptrend and could rally within weeks or a few months as it is never that easy for gold to keep going up and up.

    • On September 13, 2017 at 1:04 pm,
      GH says:

      A relief rally does seem likely.

      With the dollar’s recent lower low, I don’t really consider it to be in an uptrend.

      If the Dec 2016 peak was a 15-year top, the dollar may give an uncommonly steep drop with few rallies. That’s what happened after the last two 15-year peaks, anyway.

      • On September 13, 2017 at 2:10 pm,
        Paul L says:

        Yes it is looking like a downtrend in the short and medium term but it is close to the 200 day so hard to tell which way it will go.

    • On September 13, 2017 at 2:14 pm,
      Matthew says:

      It is in a downtrend within a larger uptrend within an even larger downtrend. Two outta three ain’t bad for us bears.
      Each rally attempt so far has been feeble and that has bigger picture bearish implications. Nevertheless, a decent bounce is probably coming soon (now that all the bottom callers have been wrong more than once).

      http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24USD&p=W&yr=10&mn=0&dy=0&id=p36154364713&a=544367839

  10. On September 13, 2017 at 12:31 pm,
    CFS says:

    I assume the Euro’s drop and the US dollar’s rise today had little to do with fundamentals and technical analysis, but more a temporary reaction of the City London bankers to Junker’s bellicose anti-brexit pro-United States of Europe speech.

    13 SEPTEMBER 2017 • 6:38PM
    Jean-Claude Juncker today called for an ever-more powerful, larger European Union headed by a directly elected EU president and warned that Britain would “regret Brexit”, in a defiant speech that was branded a blueprint for a United States of Europe.

    “I have lived the European project my whole life,” Mr Juncker declared as his outlined his federalist vision of common EU policy on defence, foreign policy migration, trade and economics and every country adopoting the euro. “I have lived it and fought for it through good times and bad times.”

    Mr Juncker called for a summit on the day after Brexit in March 2019 in the Romanian city of Sibiu to map out the future of the EU. He insisted the “wind is back in Europe’s sails” despite deep divisions across Europe on eurozone reform, enforced migration quotas and an East-West split over democratic values……….

    • On September 13, 2017 at 12:40 pm,
      CFS says:

      I make the above supposition solely based on the timing of Euro drop….dollar rise….gold drop, in conjunction with the time of Juncker’s speech.

      Had it been due to Chinese concern over their currency getting too strong, or due to American manipulation, the timing would more probably have been slightly different.

      • On September 13, 2017 at 10:43 pm,
        Bob UK says:

        +1

  11. On September 13, 2017 at 12:50 pm,
    cmc says:

    Hi Mr. Ackerman,

    I think VXX hit one of your “pivot points” today. Where do we go from here?

  12. On September 13, 2017 at 1:21 pm,
    OOTB Jerry says:
  13. On September 13, 2017 at 1:32 pm,
    OOTB Jerry says:
    • On September 13, 2017 at 1:33 pm,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      maybe we move to ….”chip backed dollar.”……….

  14. On September 13, 2017 at 1:53 pm,
    OOTB Jerry says:
  15. On September 13, 2017 at 2:49 pm,
    OOTB Jerry says:

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-13/watch-amazon-deletes-hundreds-one-star-reviews-hillary-clintons-new-book

    Book not doing so hot……more Hilly and Amazon tag team……both liars….

    • On September 13, 2017 at 2:52 pm,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      Makes you wonder if the Dollar chart is real…….or made up…..who knows for sure.

  16. On September 14, 2017 at 2:33 pm,
    Mike says:

    Rick Ackerman’s forecast of what he sees happening to the dollar is brilliant in terms of all of the forces at play as well as how he sees everything unfolding.

    I wish I knew the timeframe that he has in mind, though, as it would make all the difference (as they say).

    Personally, I think that capital flow may be the trigger in all of this, with a sovereign bond crisis hitting outside of the US, causing inflows into “safe” instruments, like US treasuries.

    For a near-term view of a potential catalyst, there was an interesting discussion on the EU bond market in the following podcast: https://capitalistexploits.at/2017/08/julian-brigden-talks-macro-with-chris-macintosh/

    Unfortunately, I don’t have the financial acumen to appreciate all of this and am trying to assimilate the views of all of these astute commentators … one of whom is Rick Ackerman, as I really think he has a fundamental grasp of all of the forces at play here.

    • On September 15, 2017 at 3:22 pm,
      Mike says:

      I found the following video from four years ago that had some great information, titled “Financial Crisis, International Capital Flows and Investment Strategies in Uncertain Times”: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eaKOLgNR8ks

      The first presenter had a great point about country balance sheets and types of assets. She said that the US in the last crisis (2008) had a balance sheet like a banker with risky assets on one side (credit, e.g. financial obligations) and safe assets on the other (debit, e.g. treasuries). When the crisis hit there was a multi-trillion markdown of risk assets which equated to a corresponding transfer of assets to those holding safe assets who were (mostly) the foreign holders of these assets.

      The second speaker also had much to say about flight to safety capital flows and how it related to the bond markets.

      Anyway, I am hoping that all of these bits of information will help my understanding in terms of how things may play out when the next crisis hits.