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What if the crash we are all expecting doesn’t materialize?

Cory
October 3, 2017

While I still believe that the markets are due for a pullback/crash we always need to consider the other side of the argument. That is the focus of the chat Chris Temple and I had today. What if the markets are able to continue to rise and what if the markets rise actually leads to some significant economic growth? We are not saying that is will happen but it needs to be considered.

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Discussion
38 Comments
    Oct 03, 2017 03:20 AM

    what if it doesn’t materialize?

    It will NOT materialize. Too much liquidity. The opposite occurs, inflation and increased asset prices. DJIA to 25,000 gold and silver to 1,500 and 22.00.

    Fed will never risk deflationary collapse.

    Oct 03, 2017 03:22 AM

    Chris seriously, get a new carrier for your phone service.

      Oct 03, 2017 03:57 AM

      Damage from the last 2 hurricanes and more has done harm to old lines. My problem at the moment is that –beautiful and peaceful as it is at the end of a road here on the marsh/Intracoastal waterway — the few of us this far removed from the main hwy are not Priority One for AT&T right now. Will be looking for alternatives.

        Oct 03, 2017 03:15 AM

        How are the snakes……..

          Oct 03, 2017 03:31 AM

          Hey, you two, maybe you get a new neighbor soon.

          Heard the Juice is now on the loose and he said he wanted to live in Florida.

            Oct 03, 2017 03:34 AM

            Juice will be found in the deep woods one day, out of juice………

            Oct 03, 2017 03:35 AM

            His temper will do him in……………jmo

    b
    Oct 03, 2017 03:35 AM

    People need to understand fractional reserve banking.
    ok, but its not gonna happen with more than a few people.

    I think the dow and cryptos going up and up really kinda accentuate that PMs has not been the place to be.
    Not since 2008/09? anyway.

    If the dow crashes it will be because its planned, if not its because its planned.

    Alot of american dollars are going to move back to the states, nothing says they will not go into the market.
    There is going to be a couple trillion or so to put somewhere.

    After saying PMs has not been the place to be.
    How about that novo?
    Nice to get a little action now and then.

      Oct 03, 2017 03:20 AM

      B…….big ditto on ……People need to understand fractional reserve banking.

    Oct 03, 2017 03:04 AM

    Gary Savage thinks the stock market is entering into a bubble phase and NASDAQ may go a lot higher from the current level. https://blog.smartmoneytrackerpremium.com/

    Oct 03, 2017 03:16 AM

    I am seeing a lot of articles like this at sites like marketwatch.com

    “Six similarities between today and 1987, when Dow plummeted 23% in one day”

    So I am guessing based on this type of sentiment the market will head higher as you don’t see these kinds of headlines at market tops.

      Oct 03, 2017 03:33 AM

      Exactly. Until the market is without a shadow of a doubt in a bubble phase (doubling or more within a year) it’s clear sailing. See you at Nasdaq 12,000 soon.

        Oct 03, 2017 03:22 AM

        Well, as Sergeant Barnes said in Platoon, “There’s the way things otta be and there’s the way things are.” (He also said, “Everybody’s gotta die sometime.”)

        They way things otta be aint’ the way things are and it looks like that’s going to go on at least a little while longer.

      Oct 03, 2017 03:18 AM

      Force feed the patient….it is sick and needs a lot more medication……….lol

        Oct 03, 2017 03:22 AM

        I need a stiff drink.

          Oct 03, 2017 03:30 AM

          This stuff……does tend to make one drink ………lol

            Oct 03, 2017 03:57 PM

            Market Watch quoting Petty on the Karkrashians….

            “‘I’m old enough to have lived in a country where, if you were willing to work hard, you could have a fairly nice life. You could support a family and even get a shot at owning your home but you never thought you’d get a swimming pool. Now the culture has hypnotized people into thinking they’re really nothing if they’re not wealthy and a Kardashian.’”

            Oct 03, 2017 03:58 PM

            “Market Watch quoting Petty on the Karkrashians….”

            Kardashians! Dang iPad!

            Oct 03, 2017 03:40 PM

            “Now the culture has hypnotized people into thinking they’re really nothing if they’re not wealthy and a Kardashian.’”

            Expectations will revert to the mean.

            Oct 03, 2017 03:41 PM

            As fate would have it Tom Petty of the Heart Breakers died of cardiac failure.

      Oct 03, 2017 03:54 PM

      Hah, here’s another one from Marke Watch today. Two in one day….

      How to protect yourself if you fear a stock-market crash is coming

    Oct 03, 2017 03:28 AM
    Oct 03, 2017 03:29 AM

    Friend,
    I’ll get straight to it — I’ve ticked off Nancy Pelosi & her buddy in Congress — Adam Schiff, and the Democrats are targeting me for defeat.

    Because I have been speaking the truth in Congress this past week (and always), Nancy Pelosi and Adam Schiff are lining up the Democrat machine to take me down next election.

    Friend, I will NEVER be bullied into silence.

    I was elected to Congress because the great citizens of South Carolina put their faith in me to represent them well and hold Washington accountable.

    Friend, I remember every single day why I am in Washington and I am working around the clock to make our nation proud and our future safer and brighter. I’m focused on putting Washington back to work, holding lawmakers accountable, and upholding my promise to put the safety and security of South Carolinians – and all Americans – first.

    I would not be back in Washington DC fighting for our shared beliefs and values – if it were not for your help and support.

    Friend, as you know, I try to hold everyone in power in Washington accountable for their actions – which hasn’t always made people happy. Though we are months away from Election Day, many are already targeting me for defeat, and no one would love to see me leave Congress more than Nancy Pelosi and Adam Schiff.

    You can always count on me to stand up and tell the truth – no matter how angry that makes people. So, Friend, if you want me to be able to stay fighting and speaking up for our values then please let me know if I can count on you right now.

    Thank you for your help.

    Sincerely,

    Trey Gowdy
    South Carolina 4th District

    Trey has fought to uphold the Constitution, rein in the expanding scope of the federal government, and re-earn the trust of the American people. Now it’s time to fight for Trey. Chip in today!

    https://secure.campaignsolutions.com/gowdy/list/rnt/donation1/default.aspx?InitiativeKey=FENMHKIF7Y1I

      Oct 03, 2017 03:32 AM

      I do like Gowdy……….one of the better congressmen………IMO

      Oct 03, 2017 03:16 PM

      What you quoted sounds good but I get nervous when politicians call me friend, especially when said politicians does it five times in one email.

      Hell, I get nervous when anyone calls me that as usually the next thing outta their pie holes is to hit me up for money….Oops…Chip in today, Friend.

        Oct 03, 2017 03:59 PM

        He’s the one of the few that will bring evil beings into the light.

          Oct 03, 2017 03:26 PM

          I think he should run for PRESIDENT…………..

    CFS
    Oct 03, 2017 03:10 PM

    How long will the rise in stocks continue?

    To answer that question one must understand why the stock market was rising and why it is still rising.

    Why was it rising?
    The Fed was pumping liquidity (money) into the system and blowing bubbles…..in stocks, capital goods such as housing, land and art, etc. AND the bond market.

    THe Fed has now realized it is not managing to get an effective growth in the economy for the dollars created.

    Part of the reason money went into the stock market, despite historically excessive valuations, is that the bond market interest rates were held very low. i.e. there was nowhere else to go for a high liquidity market except stocks (and for a while the bond market as long as interest rates were dropping)

    Now that interest rates are projected to rise, money is and will continue to come out of the band market and move into the stock market, as the only place left to go.

    This will continue until the stock market valuations become totally crazy.
    At that point the whole system probably crashes because of instability or lack of liquidity. (Possibly precipitated by some derivative problem)

    When will that occur? I don’t know.
    I doubt the Fed knows……it is just playing a reactive game, making adjustments here and there and praying they work.
    Hoping for inflation, hoping for growth in the economy, while juggling to keep the system afloat for the time being.

    Oct 03, 2017 03:37 PM

    Cory:
    How can a rise in markets create significant economic growth? Are you referring to the ‘wealth’ effect?

      Oct 03, 2017 03:49 PM

      Hey SD. I was just implying that the markets are foretelling the future. Some say that markets can predict the future. I am not in that camp but wanted to see what Chris had to say.

      Oct 04, 2017 04:23 AM

      That’s exactly the wealth effect – the reason why bankers are so keen on securitization and debt — they need all that money creation in order to “create” economiv activity these days — check out https://nationalinvestor.com/1285/infrastructure-bills-importance-game/

    Oct 03, 2017 03:11 PM

    Agreed Silverdollar, market increases and bubbles does not translate to economic growth on a broad scale. Its a myth many believe.

    Oct 03, 2017 03:54 PM

    Not to suggest Cory is one of those who does believe that myth

    Oct 03, 2017 03:03 PM
      Oct 03, 2017 03:04 PM

      More to the Vegas shootings than meets the eye

    Oct 03, 2017 03:31 PM

    When people start saying “maybe the crash will never happen” means IT WILL HAPPEN.

    Oct 03, 2017 03:31 PM

    It is foolish to think that it won’t happen.,

    Oct 03, 2017 03:34 PM

    Chris doesn’t recall people back in the early 90s saying the DOW was going to hit 50,000. Everyone thought back then it was just nonsense to even be saying that.