Buy Side Metals Analysis
Managing Partner at the CPM Group Jeffrey Christian joins me today to recap his view on the buy side of the metals sector. We discuss the precious metals and base metals in terms of drivers and the type of investors who are entering the market.
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What fustrates me is that gold/silver dealers continue to promote gold/silver as Investments and something you hold when the world goes tits up. The reality is that gold should be sold as an alternative form to fiat, just another currency which protects the value of your money over the long run and also acts as insurance to fiat currencies, that’s it. It shouldn’t be sold as something which you can get rich off.
What fustrates me is that gold/silver dealers continue to promote gold/silver as Investments and something you hold when the world goes tits up. The reality is that gold should be sold as an alternative form to fiat, just another currency which protects the value of your fiat over the long run and also acts as insurance to fiat currencies, that’s it. It shouldn’t be sold as something which you can get rich off.
Oops got posted many times, please delete…………..
naughty naughty! – Hey Fundamental Analysis 🙂
BTW – Good thoughts over at ceo:
@FundamentalAnalysis – “I’ve been chilling out not adding in the PM space……gotta start doing some deploying now….looks like things are being smashed down. Yet gold still around $1280 far from the dangerous $1050…”
US funding for advanced reactor enabling technologies
23 October 2017
“The US Department of Energy (DOE) has announced up to $20 million of funding for projects to identify and develop innovative technologies for lower cost and safer advanced nuclear reactors. The funding is part of a new programme under the Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy (ARPA-E) initiative.”
Rosatom chief sees no impact from sanctions
23 October 2017
“The economic sanctions the USA and the European Union have imposed on Russia are not impacting the work of the state nuclear corporation Rosatom, its director-general Alexey Likhachov told delegates at the World Festival of Youth and Students in Sochi earlier this week.”
http://www.world-nuclear-news.org/C-Rosatom-chief-sees-no-impact-from-sanctions-23101702.html
The Winners and Losers of Japan’s Landslide Election
By Dave McCombs – October 22, 2017
> Exporters, nuclear power and defense firms likely to benefit
> National sales tax may hurt Seven & I and other retailers
Long Term Outlook For #Commodities
Morris Hubbartt – Oct 20, 2017
Super Force #PreciousMetals #TechnicalAnalysis
#Gold, #Silver, & #USD Long Term #Charts & #Video Update
https://superforce60.com/video/2017oct18sf60gold/2017oct18sf60gold.html
Morris Hubbartt – Oct 20, 2017
Super Force #PreciousMetals #TechnicalAnalysis
$GDX & $GDXJ Long Term #Charts & #Video Update
https://superforcejuniors.com/video/2017oct18sfjgdxj/2017oct18sfjgdxj.html
Morris Hubbartt – Oct 20, 2017
Super Force #PreciousMetals #TechnicalAnalysis
$FNV Franco & $SIL Long Term #Charts & #Video Update
https://superforcesignals.com/video/2017oct18sfsfnv/2017oct18sfsfnv.html
(AR) Argonaut Gold Announces Commercial Production at San Agustin; Project Delivered On Schedule and Under Budget in Excess of 20%
October 23, 2017
http://www.argonautgold.com/news_events/news/news_release/index.php?content_id=356
Xi’s China a boon for mining
Frik Els | about 3 hours ago
China going mad……..now they have elected Bing wong doo for life…..he will become the new Mao Said Dung……..lol
In the meantime, miners still controlled day after day by inverse USD/JPY and regular markets remain counter intuitive for 8 years. But Sessions going to root out all evil…except on Wall Street. The Republicrats continue the wealth transfer. Ours.
ditto………..
Nasty start of the day…………….
Corker standing in the way of a tax cut………might mean stock market is on the way to failure. Or, ….Since, Cat set earnings record, so up, up and away……before a crash which is not going to happen on a Trump watch………lol
The world has gone mad…………..just ask Irish Tony……… 🙂
Rhodium up again….$35………$1535……..
like I said last week ….coming out of a 5 yr. cup and handle……….going higher…, I think, but, do your own dd..
oops…….posted in wrong spot…….but , who cares , no body is going to read it anyway.
I read it and shook my head and smiled. You’re quite a corker today 🙂
Jerry, this is a great example just how really bad Trump is when it comes to communications. I have always believed that “you get more bees with honey” and Trump does not. He is clearly his worst enemy!
OWL,
If, everything was normal, I would agree. But, the STYLE, is what Trump thinks the American middle wants to hear…….jmo
Al:
Try to remember that you are Not a narcissist and have empathy.
As long as the stupid congress, which most should be in jail, continues to take money for work against the American people………..she is correct on one thing…..”it is baloney”,
baloney sandwiches for all the sheeple…………
If this Uranium One issue gets any hotter it will be fried bologna sandwiches….
Panel , wants to know more on the Uranium One deal, ……Hilly will be lucky to be able to afford a bologna sandwich, when this is over……Do they serve bologna in lock up……
No but they do have pants suits…..
Obamy needs to get him some good council……because they are looking at him…..
someone is going under the bus…………..
They need a tent for her to slip into……..
Billy can keep his slicker, for the jail house shower…….
Obama, will be happy, since they smuggle weed in the jail…..
Tell, Obamy not to smoke the baloney………
And Billy, does not inhale, so he will not be over come , when the both of them are sharing cell no. 1…………..
Billy & Hilly will just go to the slammer dressed like this:
to keep a low profile….
I would bet that she is totally exonerated, OOTB
Shucks, we didn’t do a dong gone thing…………it was those commie russians…….lol
Obviously, you dislike then as much as I do, Jerry
Owl……..she will need to get a pardon……….there are a lot more in line……Comey , Mueller, Lynch, Obamy, Billy ,Pedesda Boys…….
Just how the movie plays out will really be interesting.
The real deep state is under cover, ………..some of these people are going to get thrown under the bus………these people are all pawns……..
Think………….where is the missing $21 Trillion……..
I read the comments from Hillary and she is asking people to disregard the facts.
I think that there is a good chance that she and Bill fell into the trap that many self absorbed peopled do and that is “I am the prettiest baby in the nursery and I will always be just fine.” She and Bill could be very wrong on this one. But then again, there are a lot of very narrow minded people who are on their side, unfortunately.
The real people at the top………will let billy and hilly go…….just to save themselves……they served a purpose, and they lost the game……the Clintons are of no value at this time…JMO
Jerry, it really depends on where they stand in the hierarchy.
Not as high as they think………some of the money has been cut off…….
If, so…….she would have won……..The trillionaires , the true evil at the very top, certainly do not want the people coming after them.
DJIA………..up up and away……..170 plus…………going to 25,000 , no problem in sight.
Up, Up And Away
FANG Stocks Suffer Longest Losing Streak Since Election As Earnings Hopes Slide
Fangs……..The Fed can do only , so much Fang dangling………
To Infinity and Beyond!
Repair the balance sheet…….taper the caper……..
Here’s a good Copper chart out today from Goldfinger:
@Goldfinger – “Copper looking poised for next upside breakout: ”
Stewart is right about gold: “I’ll dare to suggest that it’s vastly more important to be a buyer of any price weakness than to avoid drawdowns on existing positions. The current time and price zone will be looked back on as generational lows for both money velocity and gold stocks.”
Don’t join the vast majority who blew it last year and remain skeptical today.
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/thomson_s/thomson_s_102417.html
Agreed. I’m just holding tight through any draw downs here, but did consider lightening the load last week and shorting the miners. At this point, I’m just going to weather whatever storm we see through year end, and be ready for the run.
Hedging often makes sense but trading in significant size is for a select few. When it comes to most nano and micro cap juniors, it would be foolish to exit a large position right now and expect to get it back cheaper.
The next big move up is coming much sooner than most think — maybe even before the end of November. It is a mistake to extrapolate the current action linearly.
To be clear, I should have said the START of the next big move is coming sooner than most think.
Yes, that is where my thinking is as well, I couldn’t exit certain positions without taking a loss, and driving the prices down even further, but then if the worm turns, I wouldn’t be able to get back in at those levels. Just holding tight, and if things turn up in November that won’t hurt my feelings 😉
After this long of consolidation, the next move higher will likely catch most bears and bulls by surprise…… again…..
I’ve used up most of my dry powder over the last 2 months adding to existing positions and starting a few new positions, and while some have fallen a bit since then, I agree with Stewart that in a few years, looking back we’ll see these prices as generational lows across the spectrum.
It will be worth the candle to hold steady… (my goodness I sound like an old turkey).
The bull, and I won’t name names, have been saying this for a year! If we do get a run like 2016 it will be off the back of a major plunge. So while we may be close in time to some sort of epic rally (still weeks away IMO), price has a lot lower to fall. Look at the silver miners for gods sake. They are utter trash.
Oh I think the next big move up is coming by mid December (after the next FOMC). I just expect that between now and then, the miners and silver are going to get absolutely murdered. Everyone knows its coming. It’s like clockwork into FOMCs. Even then, the miners may not make a low even though gold does, just like early 2016.
Agree with both you and Ex. in that now is not the time to be cute and hope you can replace positions much cheaper in the near term. Fingers crossed!
I’ve also crossed my toes in anticipation, as I’m stocked up from head to toe. 🙂
As long as we use our heads and not our hearts, we’ll be fine. It’s too easy to give in to fear and doubt.
I recently mentioned to Spanky that when IPT and the ETFs diverge, I usually go with IPT’s message and today, it is a bullish one. IPT’s VWAP is up almost 5% today while the ETFs are down. Here’s IPT versus ZJG (Canada’s GDXJ):
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IPT.V%3AZJG.TO&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=13&id=p76344181421&a=552448824
you are so wrong about IPT. It’s going lower. Divergences mean nothing in this POS sector, sort of the opposite of the stock market.
Warning not to give in to fear and doubt??? lol. It’s a little late for that with IPT. It’s down what 80%? I suppose if you bought it at 10 cents or whatever you are still riiiiiich. I
Shows what you know, Spank. It is near major lows that the majority do throw in the towel just as major highs cause people like you to get confident enough to buy. It’s ridiculous when you think about it just a little bit.
Does it require a 80-100% retracement for it to qualify as a smart buy? Do you think people buying dips in an actual bull market that don’t retrace 80-100% of the prior move to be idiots or dumb money???
IPT.V has been making “major lows” for 1.5+ years now. lol. I suppose there is one major low that we know won’t get taken out, and that’s 0. How close does it have to get to zero to constitute a major low exactly?
Silver fell from 21+ to under 14.50. Common sense should tell that such a move would have a huge impact on IPT’s profitability given its current production costs.
The 2015/bear market low for silver was just 72 cents lower than the July low so it is really a show of strength that IPT bottomed at 2.5x its 2016/bear market low of 11 cents. Perhaps that’s because markets are forward-looking and dumb money doesn’t get the final say. In other words, the price makers who BUY weakness rather than sell it know that the sector is in a bull market so they happily buy well above 11 cents while the dumb money sells (before it goes to zero!!!!! aaahhh!!!!!!)
I really didn’t know you were such an idiot. 🙁
+1 Matthew.
Spanky for it to be a Major low it has to too make a new low, and IPT is still well above the early 2016 low. As Matthew mentioned the Silver price got down close to where it was in late 2015 at its Major low, yet the stocks were far more resilient this time. That’s called a clue….
This is rich! lol.
My how quickly the pumping stops when the tape is going against you. In two months you will be kicking yourself for not bailing.
I sold high and have happily bought back all that I sold x 2+
You’re looking more foolish everyday with your bs, Spanky.
You will be able to buy 5x as much soon. Nice outside day down today. I do think it will start to float back up to the top of the toilet bowl in another 6 months or so though. So you will be able to dump it again mid-2018.
It for sure could be basing, but so much damage has been done it will be at least 2 years before it breaks its multiyear downtrend finally. Broken chart unless you have a multiyear time horizon or trade it perfectly like you. And it could certainly rally 100% or more, which isnt saying much if you were one of the poor slobs who bought it at anything other than its lows. Glad to hear you are trading it perfectly.
Did I say that I trade it perfectly? Thanks to the 1,100% move, it feels rather perfect but was far from it. I sold some too soon on the way up and bought some too soon on the way down. Luckily, I rolled the sales proceeds into JAG, PGM and others before they did their IPT impressions. That did a lot to further hide my many mistakes.
Fyi & btw:
-“so much damage” and “broken” charts are not necessarily something to fear in this sector.
-IPT’s VWAP was .3203 today — nearly 5% above the (painted?) closing price and volume was unimpressive. In addition, SILJ dropped less than SLV and SIL showed very weak downside leverage of less than 2:1 vs SLV.
Again, nothing moves down in a straight line. I expect the POS yen to maybe consolidate and make a run for the declining 50 dma. That will be the end for miners.
IPT is going to rally back to the 50 dma. It will be the last time to dump it before the plunge.
Ahhhh, the sweet sound of despair!!!
Stewart Thomson writes the Graceland Updates.
Stewart Thomson Let’s allow his wayward predictions speak for themselves:
“In late 2013, I predicted the Fed would taper all the way to zero in 2014, and suggested that taper would turn the Dow into a “wet noodle”, while creating a rally in gold prices. That’s the opposite of what most analysts thought would happen in 2014, and it’s exactly what has transpired!” -Stewart Thomson Oct 2014
“Gold Set to Surge, Silver Looks Even Better! I think gold could charge beyond $1325, and on towards the $1347 and $1390 area highs. Silver, which is perhaps better referred to as “gold on steroids”, looks even better.” -Stewart Thomson August 2014
“…any gold-negative news is not likely to move the price of gold lower than $1275. The upside numbers of importance are $1325, $1347, and $1392.” -Stewart Thomson July 2014
“Gold: “Let the Good Times Roll!” During the first six months of 2014, there have been quite a number of events that are positive for the gold market, and there was a big one yesterday. Gold staged a nice breakout from a small bullish wedge pattern last night, and the entire chart has a very bullish look. Why is that? Well, the month of August can see Indian citizens buy enormous amounts of gold, as they begin preparations for the wedding season and Diwali. Expectations of those liquidity flows into gold are likely why the gold chart looks so bullish now.” -Stewart Thomson July 2014
“Gold: The Worst Is Over, What’s Next? The time to be heavily invested in the precious metals sector is not later. It’s now.” -Stewart Thomson June 2014
“While the short and intermediate trends for gold are greatly influenced by Fed policy, events in China and India are now the key drivers of gold’s primary trend…. and sends gold surging towards my target of $1432.” -Stewart Thomson July 2014
“A persuasive argument can be made that gold staged an upside breakout last night. The range of $1305 – $1326 was decisively penetrated to the upside, and gold traded as high as $1335. Monday’s close was critical, because it was not just the end of the month, but the end of the quarter. Junior gold stocks staged a spectacular ending to the first half of the year, on massive volume. The chart suggests the second half of 2014 will be even better!” -Stewart Thomson July 2014
“Gold Stock ETFs: Outrageously Bullish! If I’m correct, the “bare minimum” arithmetic target is: $2663. I think my target price is absolutely justified by the global fundamental and geopolitical price drivers.” -Stewart Thomson June 2014
“Technically, all sectors of the gold market look bullish. Regardless of whether a daily chart, weekly chart, or a monthly chart is used, all technical lights are green. The weekly charts suggest that investors who are waiting for gold to bottom in July are at risk of missing an enormous rally that appears to already be underway.” -Stewart Thomson June 2014
“I’ve outlined a rough scenario for summer rally enthusiasts on the daily silver chart below. I’ve suggested silver could move up to about $22. Much higher prices are possible.” -Stewart Thomson June 2014
“Gold now seems to be forming an inverse head and shoulders bottom pattern, and that’s good news for bullish investors.” -Stewart Thomson April 2014
“Indian National Election is the Most Bullish Event for Gold in Past 100 Years!” -Stewart Thomson April 2014
“Gold market technicians should be open to the possibility that in the bigger picture, this rally has only just started.
Many of PM investors are likely to sell on a rally back to the $1500 area, to cut the huge losses they sustained in 2013.” -Stewart Thomson February 2014
maybe we are in for a bounce, or maybe the chinese moves start to have an affect.
not so sure about considering mr thomson as confirmation tho.
these are old now, maybe hes adjusted where he starts his “wave count” now.
maybe he needs new crystal balls…………
funny
And that’s why I single out the comments that I agree with. He and I were right about interest rates hikes not posing a threat while many so-called experts thought they’d be terrible for the sector and were calling for sub $1,000 gold.
It’s funny that you seem to like the guy with the worst record of all — Harry Dent.
Gold’s move in 2016 was nothing but a countertrend move to reset sentiment, just like in yen, and it looks like it did exactly that. New bull market, blah blah blah.
Everything is going to become crystal clear over the next year. Waterfall into the 200 WMA in the miners incoming, followed by a suckers rally/messy bounce, followed by the coup de grace.
If 2016 was just a countertrend move, then why didn’t Gold reverse right back down and continue on with the bear market and take out it’s 2015 low all year long in 2016? Why hasn’t it even gotten close to taking out its Dec 2015 Major low in all of 2017?
Here’s a clue, because we aren’t in Bear Market any more. If anything the consolidation from last August to this August was the corrective move.
We’ll see about your coup de grace waterfall decline in 2018. If Gold breaks down below it’s major low of $1045.40 next year, then I’ll tip my hat to you spanky. If it takes out the 2016 high of $1377.50 though, maybe you’ll give the dire prognostications a rest eh?
Because nothing goes down in a straight line, especially gold. They are going to have to absolutely murder yen to get gold down below the 2016 low, and I have absolutely no doubt that they will do just that. Silver is a different beast.
PM bulls are riding the slope of hope, except this ride is just getting started.
Wake me up when Gold is below $1045.40. Until then it is just doomleading and we are not in a Bear market.
The fact that it has been 2 years since the low in Gold is pretty obvious that we aren’t in Bear. That isn’t rocket science.
Based on Spanky’s silly crap the miners will propably bottom tomorrow. 😉
lol. good one Matthew.
Well we did have 3 days of silence at least 😉
At least Spanky proclaimed last Friday that he thinks the metals are in a bull. (what a relief). haha!
On October 20, 2017 at 7:20 am,
spanky says:
I’m going silent for a while. I think the metals are in a bull, but the miners could tag their 600 DMA before this correction ends. Godspeed. Over and out.
of all the gurus, I prefer Jordon.
I am more akin to Turk, just 5% phyzz or rick A, no predictions just act accordingly, predictors i dont put much faith in.
when i see things add up myself, then i put the money in.
to itch his own.
some times they right sometimes they wrong.
if they really were right often enough to have faith in…they would be billionaires….. and why would billionaires be on this blog or writing blogs etc.
they do that because they are not actually as accurate as they like to portray.
not a big deal. people on here should know that.
of all the gurus, I prefer Jordon.
I am more akin to Turk, just 5% phyzz or rick A, no predictions just act accordingly, predictors i dont put much faith in.
some times they right sometimes they wrong.
if they really were right often enough to have faith in…they would be billionaires….. and why would billionaires be on this blog or writing blogs etc.
they do that because they are not actually as accurate as they like to portray.
not a big deal. people on here should know that.
when i see things add up myself, then i put the money in.
to itch his own.
Actually 1 billionaire does write, Faber, but then hes a racist.
This is comedy gold. I stated a while back that this guy was calling a bottom every day between 2012 and 2015. I can’t believe he still has a roof over his head TBH. Maybe he posts out of the local YMCA. Definition of a permabull and is certainly no one to cite as authority on gold price, that is for damn sure.
The guy is correct on the Treason part…….just has the wrong person….HILLY BILLY AND GANG…….
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-10-24/trump-treason-protester-throws-russian-flags-trump-he-enters-senate
Just saw Jerrys post regarding rhodium price… Wow!!! Now $1540. Just 2 weeks ago it was in the 1100’s. Gonna do some background research into what is driving this rally. I always seem to overlook rhodium when considering PMs. Maybe this is just a “fake-out” but the fact its at nearly 6 year highs is interesting.
Gold is goin nowhwere but DOWN DOWN DOWN it has done nothing else since the peak in august 2011 and thats what it will continue to go into obscurity
ScotiaBank goes down…
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-10-19/scotiamocatta-put-sale-after-multibillion-money-laundering-scandal