Bitcoin, US Markets, and Treasuries
Rick kicks off today with a market we have not discussed before, Bitcoin. He provides some much higher targets but also issues a warning about trading the cryptocurrencies. We also look at another higher target for the Dow. The TLT chart is how we wrap up our call.
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thanks Rick for the insight……..OOTB
This is really getting interesting , ………OOT-rex B…………
On November 1, 2017 at 3:54 pm,
OOTB Jerry says:
AMAZON…….and BITCOIN………..
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-11-01/amazon-registers-crypto-ethereum-domains-rumors-swirl-it-
On November 1, 2017 at 12:53 pm,
OOTB Jerry says:
I think this is getting out of hand……….third time I posted….
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-11-01/iran-preparing-infrastructure-bitcoin-adoption
I think the Canadian dollar is in for more than a bounce here:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24CDW&p=D&yr=1&mn=3&dy=0&id=p61620605395&a=477198301
Gold prices climb as dollar weakens in wake of tax plan
Published: Nov 2, 2017
Oil is getting ready for a possible big move and then could bring the dollar up.
No Bitcoin derivative is going to take the place of Bitcoin, once the derivative fails while the original keeps active. This is not going to be a “London gold pool” or Gold ETF. It’s too easy to get Bitcoin, and keep it, unlike a commodity like gold. Where’s the derivative play?
Bye-bye Janet…Powell to head Feral Reserve…prolly not much change, just another Keynesian crankster.
The guy was around the Bush cabal….the guy was an attorney…..at one of the crooked law firms………according to BIX W…..
You can’t be that high up in the gooberment without being a criminal.
Trump is a trojan horse………..he keeps falling into doo doo….CIA, deep state is still in control.
The new tax plan………should make you happy…..leaving 401 k alone……but, really the amount should be more like $4800, just to cover inflation…the amount of deduction is like 1970’s deduction amount….
New proposal for housing deduction , limit to houses up to $500,000…..value of real estate is going down, there will be no more tax advantage after that….and that was a bonus for most people.
The middle of the country will boom, while the California coast will take another hit.
New construction……..the square footage of a new $500,000 house , will be less than a ONe car garage……
The new saying will be HEAD EAST YOUNG MAN….HEAD EAST…..
“Go east” might catch on.
D Casey has been saying that for a decade now?
I think it might have been him saying get out before you cant.
Condos on the beach are going to take a hit as well…….look for a lot of real estate coming to market as they figure this one out…….
Peter Schiff on tax reform…
Peter Who……………..
Commiefornia sucks…Demonrats big tax increases on fuel just took effect. Gas went up 12 cents a gallon over night, diesel up 20 cents a gallon overnight. Next year big increase in the vehicle registration tax. And that was just the beginning, the taxes go up automatically every year.
Between Demonrats raising taxes and Republoclowns trying to attack things like 401ks we are under attack from all sides…f’ing lying, criminal, thieving, b@stard politicians.
The fuel tax is a big one……one of those hidden taxes most sheeple only wonder about.
f’ing lying, criminal, thieving, b@stard politicians…………100% agree…..
“The fuel tax is a big one……one of those hidden taxes most sheeple only wonder about.”
You ought to see it in Commiefornia. The Demonrats raise the gas tax and the sales tax which is also applied to gas through the roof and then the libtards blame the high price of gas on the oil companies. When you ask them if it’s the oil companies’ fault why is gas a dollar less in other states they give you the deer in the headlights look.
Gas in Commiefornia over $3 a gallon. What are you paying in Indiana/Florida? Heard in some states it’s under $2 a gallon.
sorry, just got back………Indy….$2.50 approx…..florida not there presently….usually about the same price……..
Indiana likes the gas tax….crossroads of america……Now, they are talking about a bunch of toll booths on the interstates and around indiananoplace……greedy little bastards..
Here in Ontario we just went about 12 cents per litre which would be 45 cents per US gallon only because oil moved up a bit.
You are right, Jerry.
Brady and the rest of the GOP on the Ways and Means wanted to cripple 401ks but it looks like that was just going to be too hot for them to handle. People would raise hell so they backed off.
They did get rid of some of the SALT deductions and got rid of the exemptions.
On the plus side, they replaced the 28% bracket with a 25% bracket that goes all the way up to 260k so it wasn’t all bad. Wish they would have told people about that earlier.
Still, it’s not reform. The only real reform would be to get rid of the income tax and drastically slash spending. Getting rid of 80% of the government would be a good start.
My guess is that this package will be substantially modified and who knows what the Senate will do and what Trump will eventually sign. My guess is it won’t get done this year.
The only real reform would be to get rid of the income tax and drastically slash spending. Getting rid of 80% of the government would be a good start……you say….AND I AGREE
Government is a criminal organization…any entity that bases its power on coercion is immoral and can only be corrupt.
Saving………and a biblical quote……..
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-11-02/savings-rate-conundrum
Debt is a negative thing for the borrower. It has been known to be such a thing even in biblical times as quoted in Proverbs 22:7:……..per zh
Finally catching on to something………like duh………
Maybe there should have been a Robert Kiyosaki book included.
I did like Kioyasaki’s Rich Dad, Poor Dad, but felt his Cashflow Quadrant was the real gem.
In a recent interview he was asked what he would recommend doing and what he was doing.
He recommended people get out of debt the best they can, he, on the other hand said he was going into as much debt as he can.
But, he said he knew what he was doing.
Thought that was funny, probly true tho.
Yes, I watched a few different you tube videos with him extolling the benefits of acquiring debt in the low interest rate environment. He went on Kitco a year or two ago and said the same thing. While there can be positive debt taken on to fuel growth that outpaces it, (which may be his point); I often wonder if he is just in debt now and trying to put a bow on a turd.
What ever happened to the Trump Kioyasaki……on gold……and end the fed…..
How old is that book……..2000, I had my son read the book when he was in High school.
Made him outline it also…………I could have written some of the real estate sections and debt sections………..lol
forgive me, …pride goeth before the fall…….. 🙂
It’s still worth a read for people that haven’t gone through it. I used to go see Robert K. speak live, and listen to his cassette tapes in the car, and it was influential in my way of thinking when I was running my marketing company, and starting to do passive investing. He’s a big Silver bug too and used to proclaim “Cash is trash” but as we know, fiat cash is still holding it’s position so he was really off on his timing.
Rick, you have been predicting a long term deflation scenario and that will bring about flat wages, a drop in home prices and such. In such a scenario, with inflation in food, fuel etc. how do you see the PM’s. Will they likely rise or will they fall as well with perhaps a rise later?
Also, what do you think of what Harry Dent had to say on the Kitco interview, saying gold will go to $400-450 before it begins its bull market based on history of bull and bear markets on commodities?
Harry Dent has been calling for $400-$700 Gold for the last 10 years. What nut job.
He just panders to the bears to fuel his readership, and has 0 credibility. It’s as insane as people calling for $10,000 gold in the next few years. Two polar extremes, not worth the time to watch/read.
It’s hard to think of a less credible expert than Dent.
Agreed.
INDEPENDENT REVIEW OF HARRY DENT’S PREDICTIONS | WITH FINANCIAL ADVISOR JEFF VOUDRIE
BY JEFF VOUDRIE – JULY 31, 2014
1. Dent has been spectacularly wrong in the past.
“Although his emails won’t tell you that. He predicted in 2006 that the Dow would hit 40,000 by 2010, along with a “great boom”” that would run from 2007 until early 2010. He then predicted a market correction after this explosion, which anyone could have done. Of course the market would simmer down after hitting 40,000, which it never approached. Dent was far from reality on these predictions.”
3. Dent has had two exchange-traded funds shut down in the past several years.
“Both of these funds were based on the hallmarks of Dent’s research: broad trends in the global economy combined with extensive demographic analysis. The DENT Tactical ETF (DENT) was closed in August 2012 after falling 12.9% over the nearly three years of its existence, in contrast to the Vanguard Total Stock Index Fund (VTI), which rose 42.7% during that period . Comparable funds gained between 5 and 43% during that same period. A mutual fund known as the AIM Dent Demographic Trends merged with another mutual fund and hit $2 billion in assets before losing 80% of those. Dent said the fund did not take all of his advice and suffered for it.”
http://jeffvoudrie.com/independent-review-harry-dents-predictions-financial-advisor-jeff-voudrie/
4 things doom-and-gloomers got totally wrong
Published: May 22, 2014
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/4-things-doom-and-gloomers-got-totally-wrong-2014-05-22
Harry’s Dented Prophecies
Harry S. Dent Jr. knows how to sell books. But whether his stock-market strategies make sense—or money for investors—is another question.
By GENE EPSTEIN – September 17, 2011
http://www.barrons.com/articles/SB50001424052702303392404576566841665679146
Why I Won My Gold Bet With Harry Dent
Jeff Clark, Senior Precious Metals Analyst, GoldSilver
MAY 2, 2017
“Two years ago I bet economist Harry Dent an ounce of gold that the price wouldn’t fall to his prediction of $750/ounce.
He had made some noise in the gold community that year about how gold was going to crater. He advised selling your gold and buying dollars. He even stated that $750 wasn’t the stopping point, that the price would fall to as low as $250.
I couldn’t pass it up. I wrote an open letter to him, citing why I thought he was wrong, and offered to bet him a one-ounce gold Eagle. I even raised the target to $800 and gave his prediction two full years to come to fruition. He accepted.
My bet was a bold one at the time… if you remember early 2015, the gold price had been falling for two years, and showed little sign of stabilizing. Almost no one thought the bottom was in. Market participants had been decimated. Gold showed some life in January that year, but by the time we finalized our agreement in March the price had fallen another 12%. It dropped below $1,100 that summer, and by December hit $1,049. My wager was not looking so good.
But gold never fell to $800—never even cracked three figures. I won. And yes, he paid up.”
https://goldsilver.com/blog/why-i-won-my-gold-bet-with-harry-dent/
Bet against Dent if you want, as Jerry says “pride goeth? before the fall”
Dent could be related to Nostradamus. ooooo woe is you.
Woe to all that doubt the great and mighty Dent.
All hail the bitcoin….and Hive, I own that one.
“Dent could be related to Nostradamus”
I think he may be missing a few of the chromosomes then. 🙂
“Woe to all that doubt the great and mighty Dent.”
http://metadefect.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/wizardofoz_4675-1024×747.jpg
Dent-y is a perpetual mix of toxic fear mongering and limitless B.S! He has no regard for the truth. Sad to see such a douche get so much air time in the gold bug and main stream press.
+1
He tricks a lot of average Joes.
I put Dent’s target in the “not a chance” category. I’m sure Rick is much more open to a sub-$1,000 print than me but probably also puts slim odds on Dent’s number.
If, we get $960……we will have to invite Tweety Bird back………..
Luckily, that is not going to happen. 🙂
🙂
Tweety was kicked out of the birdhouse for his “hate tweets” not because of his $960 call.
Which incidentally he just lifted off Jim Rogers – who has also been wrong about that for years now.
For real,l thought he was making that call, what a hoot
He heard first the Jim Rogers target when a number of interviews were posted about with Jim referencing a 50% retracement from $1921 = $960.50. He agreed with those targets, and then used his repetitive megaphone pattern chart posts to show $965 or something along those lines was guaranteed, and went around proclaiming you can count on it and patting himself on the back. Then he repetitively posted long-term CRB charts and dogged on the commodities and all gold bugs as idiots. [does that sound like any other KER contributors we now deal with? 🙂 ]
That would have been fine, if he didn’t result to lying, insulting most of the show guest, threatening to sue Big Al, harassing Gary S. to the point he left due to all the attacks, and then aggressively trolling or attacking most of the regular commentators on the blog. Again, why people like to bring up such a source of negativity all the time is beyond me. 99% of the fights on the KER ceased the day he left. Good riddance.
What I always thought was wacky about the Jim Rogers call was that this isn’t how retracements work. You take the starting point of the rally (debatable whether you want to use the level in 1999, 2000, or 2001 and then the end of the rally – 2011) and subtract the 2 levels and multiply by the retracement. This would give investors a number much higher than $960 or $965 anyway. Jimmy boy was just taking 1921 and chopping it in half to get the $960 number which is why he was off in the first place.
If memory serves the low for Gold in 1999 was $252 and so if you subtract that from $1921 you get $1669 x .5 = $834.50. So if you subtract the $834.50 from $1921 you get $1086.50.
At the time I rationalized in about 2 dozen posts starting in late 2014 and early 2015 that the Oct 30th, 2009 support level of $1044.70 should be one of the key areas where Gold would find support. As we know it bottomed at $1045.40 in Dec of 2015. That was close enough for me. 😉
I we take Dent-y’s $400 mark seriously then we need to also take $50,000 per ounce seriously. Both to me are the same side of the B.S coin. Plain and Simple.
IF not I
I am sitting on about 30% profit on Bitcoin with a 10% profit stop set. You have to use a wide stop or the volatility will keep knocking you out. I have $2000 in at an average price of $6084. I have bagged over 100% returns this year using 1% of my retirement as the original investment. Keep hating. I’ll keep bagging.
Dang, I bet Hillary wish she didn’t scream at Brazile, “I’m so sick of your face. You stare at the wall like a brain dead buffalo. What are you good for, really? Get the f___ to work janitoring this mess. Do I make myself clear?”
HA,HA.HA……….good one……..
Also, haters, be advised. I will be getting FREE Bitcoin Cash, Bitcoin Gold, and Bitcoin 2 due to hard forks thank me very much. The exchanges will match your Bitcoins holdings at the time of the splits with free coins. Corey needs to cover this aspect.
No, we have other experts on bitcoin, leave cory for the miners……..
GBTC ask at $900
Bitcoin hit $7350 today.
Matt+Ex,
I’m looking at the Sprott Gold Miners vs Dow Jones chart posted by Highroller over at Goldtent….and it seems to be showing a massive spike in volume. It this indicative of a huge trend change? It looks like a game changer….but wondering if you take much stock in Sprott’s SGDJ
Matt I ain’t making jack in the metals now. I am playing the bull/bear 3x miner ETFs , SLV, and ASM. Nothing but red range trading.
Jason, I’m not making jack in the metals right now either but I’m fine with that since the coming moves up will more than make up for any opportunity costs.
Hi confused,
This looks like the chart you are discussing.
Sprott juniors
-> Posted by Highroller @ 13:02 pm on November 2, 2017
https://goldtadise.com/?p=415720
____________________________________________________
Personally, while I feel SGDJ is a superior product to GDXJ, I do agree with Matthew’s point a earlier this week where he mentioned if you are going to chart and ETF for a the sector moves then GDX or GDXJ are about 10 times as liquid and are the better measuring stick of sentiment.
However, I approach things a bit differently. Personally, I don’t own and don’t like the allocation or weighting in any of those ETFs, and choose to build my own ETF (often with many companies not even featured in those due to their nano-cap or micro-cap status).
My strategy is to look at ALL the Producers, Developers, Explorers, and Prospect Generators to see what trends are playing out across a certain subsector.
In the producers I break them down based on Majors, Mid-tiers, and Small producers to further segment things down.
Often there are days were GDX or GDXJ give one indication, but if you look at All the miners you can often come away with a much different picture. The problem with the ETFs is they are a jumbled mess of Majors, Midtiers, Smaller producers, Developers, and Explorers, but generally only the largest, most liquid, or the ones on the primary exchanges. This doesn’t always jive with what the real Juniors are doing.
Neither GDXJ or SGDJ are really indexes that truly feature only “Juniors” although it is subject to where one draws the line in the sand or defines things.
I do see the value in looking at the trend in GDX and GDXJ, I just don’t base all my perceptions about what is happening to the miners on only 2 ETFs. (same thing with using the HUI or XAU which have the same issues of only featuring the larger more liquid names).
Since most of the stocks I hold are not featured in those ETFs, then I find in more instructive to just look at each stock on it’s individual technical set up and fundamental merits.
Again, I also see many days where the Developers are outperforming the Producers, or the reverse of that; or where the small producers are mostly up, even when the larger producers are down. Those are more telling indicators for me personally as to what is happening with investment sentiment when you segment things down. Just my 2 cents.
Indeed, but what about the Volume?
I must not understand what you are asking.
(SGDJ)
Today’s Volume 12,048
Avg. Volume 59,531
Are you asking about it rising on falling volume?
I wouldn’t hesitate to buy SGDJ right now. You can put a sell stop at the 10/26 low or just hold (or buy more) if it goes lower (probably no more than 5% lower).
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SGDJ&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=13&id=p89676002567&a=523456729
And what about the VOLUME today??
Could it be the CFTC is involved in order to set margin requirements thus controlling price??
Oil is showing a lot of strength so I bought back 25% of my XOP position on the dip today. I was hoping for a move to 52.50 for oil but it looks like it wants to break the 55.40 area.
Does anyone have any thoughts here on HIVE (ticker:PRELF). It is a miner of Euretheum that is a public offshoot of Genesis. It has a data center in Iceland and is opening up a new one in Iceland. Frank Holmes is involved. I got in at 1.65 in Mid-September and it is now over 4.00. I have taken partial profits earlier this week to lower my basis, but not sure if I should let the rest ride or cash out given the parabolic nature of the run.
Here’s one thing the Bitcoin frenzy has in common with the Dot-com bubble
Published: Nov 2, 2017
“Whether bitcoin is in a bubble may be up for debate. But there is one thing about the cryptocurrency craze that is reminiscent of the late 1990s tech boom.
Companies that put the word “blockchain” or other cryptocurrency terms in their name have seen their share prices soar, much like companies that added a dot-com to their name received an almost automatic boost about two decades ago, according to Raghavendra Rau, professor of finance at Cambridge Judge Business School in the U.K.”
“Soaring prices of bitcoin and increased attention in cryptocurrencies from average folk, professional investors, and regulators alike, have compelled a number of companies like On-Line PLC—hoping to piggyback on the ascendance of the digital currencies and blockchain technology—to either change their names, reshape their business models or both, to underline their links to crypto assets. Those moves are drawing parallels to the late-1990s dot-com boom.
“There is nothing new under the sun. These manias spread every few years when new technologies appear with uncertain potentials,” Rau told MarketWatch.
“It happened for airlines during the 1920s, it happened during the dot-com boom, it happened during the China boom and it is happening again with blockchain. And this time too, it’s not different,” he said. Blockchain refers to the digital record-keeping technology that underpins bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.”
“…Rau said comparing HIVE with Facebook Inc. FB, using the social network’s valuations when it went public in 2012 at about 62 times trailing earnings, would imply that HIVE should earn about $13 million in net profit to justify its current value.”
Charles,
Ceo.ca is the best hub I’m aware of for following HIVE, as it is a sponsor there, Tommy helped promote it, and there are throngs of investors piled into the story.
Here’s a link to the (HIVE) room where there is regular discussion on the topic:
Thanks Excelsior!!
Bitcoin…………by Rick
CME, future of bitcoin important, and …..constructive development!
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Price INFO, will be where CME, will screw the buyer, if the price is set twice a day. Control by the fake controllers…………JMO