Craig Hemke from TF Metals Report – Thu 7 Dec, 2017

What’s The Deal With The Pullback In Base Metals?

Craig Hemke joins me today to discuss what helped drive the base metals this year and why they are pulling back this week. There are a number of factors to consider which include the downtrend in the USD, massive creation of money around the world, and stocks lagging to name a few.

Click here to visit Craig’s site for more metals commentary.

Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show


Featuring:
Craig HemkeCory Fleck
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Comments:
  1. On December 7, 2017 at 1:32 pm,
    Bob Grierson says:

    Hi Al

    Having followed the KEReport and other financial websites for several years one thing comes across loud and clear – most of the pundits don’t know what they’re talking about. They go on and on about the USD/YEN ratio and futures expiration dates but they rarely catch market bottoms or tops or even get the right direction. They are for the most part noise and diversions. If I had one piece of advice for your listeners it would be ‘DON’T SUBSCRIBE’.

    Bob Grierson

    • On December 7, 2017 at 5:08 pm,
      David says:

      Manipulation is very apparent when you monitor the inverse relationship of the USD/YEN to gold. It is further reinforced by the failure to regulate by the CFTC, SEC and Justice Department nor investigated by Congress. Criminality coupled with enablement by the government makes bottom/top picking more the realm of insiders. However, repetitive tracking of the algo relationships triggered by manipulation can give clues. The problem always exists that since markets are not free, traditional predictors of future performance are human directed and not to be relied on as they can be altered irrespective of logic or common sense. Criminality is generally devoid of fiduciary responsibility and therefore should always be a consideration when investing.

  2. On December 7, 2017 at 2:08 pm,
    JohnK says:

    If anyone still has any doubts about the legitimacy of the Cryptos, here you go.
    USPTO Awards Patent To Bank of America Crypto Currency Exchange System.
    https://cointelegraph.com/news/uspto-awards-patent-to-bank-of-americas-cryptocurrency-exchange-system

    • On December 7, 2017 at 2:16 pm,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      thanks………interesting how quickly the news is rolling out……All aboard…..

      • On December 7, 2017 at 2:26 pm,
        b says:

        Banks have now officially got their fingers into it, even if they hadnt from the start.
        So much for replacing gov control of our currencies.
        Crypto owners wont care even if they did buy them to help elminate banker influence, they wont care because they have big profits…..they got bought off.

        Human natrure just plain ol dont change.

        • On December 7, 2017 at 3:05 pm,
          OOTB Jerry says:

          The House of Red prevails once again…………Central Bankers controlling anything that moves……..

  3. On December 7, 2017 at 2:14 pm,
    JohnK says:

    Talk about bad timing, I seemed to have the lock on it.
    5 Days since I sold some Bitcoin. So far I left $5,891.40 per Bitcoin on the table.
    I didn’t see this press release from Bank of America coming. This is a game changer.

    • On December 7, 2017 at 2:17 pm,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      You out thunk yourself………….. 🙂

      • On December 7, 2017 at 2:22 pm,
        b says:

        Could crash at any time, could hit a million too.
        But if I owned a few I would have been taking some off the table on the way up too.

        I owned cuu at 5cents, it went to 2.50….i didnt get that.

        • On December 7, 2017 at 2:29 pm,
          JohnK says:

          I was half tempted to sell the whole thing. I’m glad I didn’t.
          It’s still no better than the stock market.
          Crazy World we live in.

      • On December 7, 2017 at 2:26 pm,
        JohnK says:

        Jerry:
        I thought Wall Street was going to skin the Millenials. They all had dollar signs in their eyes.
        Go Figure.

        • On December 7, 2017 at 2:31 pm,
          b says:

          The banks want as cashless as possible, the crypto crowd fell for it hook line and sinker.
          So much for the last remaining piece of liberty the people had.

          Even if it takes another 20 years, old people still use cash, they just need to die off.

        • On December 7, 2017 at 3:12 pm,
          OOTB Jerry says:

          Wall street is not going to skin the millenials, because they do not own stocks.
          Millenials are going to get skinned when the time is right, after their parents have been skinned. Millenials need to be in the hamster wheel for awhile so , they can help with paying off all the debt that has been ran up……Public and Private.

    • On December 7, 2017 at 2:31 pm,
      JohnK says:

      make that $6,315.80

      • On December 7, 2017 at 2:32 pm,
        JohnK says:

        That is $24.96 per minute per Bitcoin,

        • On December 7, 2017 at 2:59 pm,
          JohnK says:

          that was since the last post at 2:14

  4. On December 7, 2017 at 2:15 pm,
    b says:

    So is the world going crypto soon?

  5. On December 7, 2017 at 2:51 pm,
    JohnK says:

    Could this be the revenge of the WinkleVoss Twins?
    Supposedly the WinkleVoss Twins were the creators of Facebook before Mark Zuckerberg stole their idea.
    Zuckerberg settled with the Twins for a large amount of stock and cash.
    If Bitcoin goes to the moon, The Twins could become the largest shareholders of Facebook. If they wanted.
    If you don’t know who the WinkleVoss Twins are,they were the first Bitcoin Billionaires.

  6. On December 7, 2017 at 3:14 pm,
    CFS says:

    Expect increasingly:
    “Bitfinex says it is under a significant denial of service attack”
    and similar

  7. On December 7, 2017 at 3:19 pm,
    CFS says:

    NEW YORK (AP) — The price of bitcoin swung wildly Thursday, rising to more than $19,000 only to fall sharply within minutes, as both the euphoria and anxiety surrounding the virtual currency escalated just days before trading in bitcoin futures begins on a major U.S. exchange.

    The concerns about its volatility have led some Wall Street banks and trade groups to raise concerns about the potential implications of trading bitcoin. Banks also appear likely to limit customers’ access to the futures when they first start trading.

    Bitcoin was valued at $17,167 as of 6:00 p.m. EST, according to large bitcoin exchange Coinbase, after briefly surging above $19,000 Thursday morning. At the start of the year, one bitcoin was worth less than $1,000.

    Bitcoin’s wild swings occurred as Wall Street prepares for bitcoin futures to start trading on the Chicago Board Options Exchange on Sunday evening and on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange a week later. The futures are designed to reflect the price of bitcoin without an investor having to physically hold the currency, not unlike how oil, gold, copper or cocoa prices are determined by futures contracts.

    • On December 7, 2017 at 3:34 pm,
      james says:

      Electronic Money Is The Prison ! So Sheeple Go Go Go !

  8. On December 7, 2017 at 3:34 pm,
    CFS says:
  9. On December 7, 2017 at 3:39 pm,
    james says:

    Go Go Go SHEEPLE ! Electronic !!!!!! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IMRD4omfDRQ

    • On December 7, 2017 at 4:23 pm,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      Wow is correct………….I guess Andy Hoffman needs some more respect……

  10. On December 7, 2017 at 4:20 pm,
    CFS says:

    Capital corruption and other crimes:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mcj9IKWyR0I

  11. On December 7, 2017 at 4:22 pm,
    CFS says:

    Memo to self:

    Apmex think Bargepole

    I doubt Apmex is largest trader of PMs. I’ve always found their prices high.

    • On December 7, 2017 at 4:24 pm,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      Depends on what you buy…….

      • On December 7, 2017 at 4:26 pm,
        OOTB Jerry says:

        and how much you buy………

        • On December 7, 2017 at 5:44 pm,
          CFS says:

          $5K a week on average, and I’ve always found SDBullion or JMBullion to have better prices.

          • On December 7, 2017 at 7:19 pm,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            Checked out both sd and jm…….both have good prices…100oz bars were very competitive , again thanks……

  12. On December 7, 2017 at 6:27 pm,
    OOTB Jerry says:

    Thanks for the info…bars or rounds

  13. On December 7, 2017 at 9:11 pm,
    CFS says:

    Both

  14. On December 7, 2017 at 11:09 pm,
    CFS says:
  15. On December 7, 2017 at 11:12 pm,
    CFS says:

    SEOUL, South Korea (AP) — South Korean is studying ways to regulate speculative trading in crypto currencies as the latest surge in prices stokes a craze over bitcoins.

    The country’s financial regulator said Friday that it has ruled out using bitcoin for derivative products. The decision effectively bans investing in bitcoin futures that will start trading on the Chicago Board Options Exchange this weekend.

    South Koreans tend to be tech savvy and used to trading cash in online games. Many are betting their incomes and even retirement packages on bitcoins and other virtual currencies. The country has just 50 million people but accounts for about one-fifth of global bitcoin trades.

    As the price of bitcoin surged more than 20 percent overnight to top $17,000 before falling back to the $15,000 level, South Korean internet users were going online to seek advice about which crypto currencies to pick or how to download apps.

    The lure is apparent: One bitcoin was worth less than $1,000 at the start of the year.

    “People are probably affected by those who say they made a lot of money from bitcoins,” said Kim Do-hyung, a 21-year-old who invested in bitcoins and another crypto currency called stratis. “Young people don’t make a lot of money. It looks like easy money for them,” he said.

    Kim, who just finished the country’s mandatory military service last month, put all his monthly salary saved up from his two-years of duty into crypto currencies in November. His profit surged four-fold, reaping enough to pay his tuition when he returns to college next year and pay his rent in Seoul, he said by phone from a city of Masan, 298 kilometers south of Seoul.

    Earlier this week, South Korea’s justice ministry said it would consider ways to regulate crypto currency exchanges and plans to devise stiff penalties for crimes related to such transactions.

    Local investors believe the crypto currency boom is still in its early stages.

    “Virtual currency just made a start in South Korea so I think the price will go further up,” Kim said.

  16. On December 7, 2017 at 11:17 pm,
    CFS says:

    If you’re the Hoi Polloi you get to pay state sales taxes, but if you’re a billionaire?

    NEW YORK (AP) — New York City collects sales tax on even the smallest items, but it probably won’t collect a cent in taxes on a nearly half billion dollar painting by Leonardo da Vinci.

    The Italian Renaissance artist’s “Salvator Mundi” sold for $450 million (380 million euros) during a record-breaking auction at Christie’s last month to a buyer reported to be a Saudi prince. But unless he decides to hang the work in a Manhattan pied-a-terre, or ships it using the wrong type of carrier, the city won’t get any taxes.

    That’s because the state’s laws are structured so that out-of-town buyers generally don’t get hit with big tax bills. If they did, New York’s status as a global center for art sales might be jeopardized, an expert said.

  17. On December 8, 2017 at 4:20 am,
    Excelsior says:

    Secretary of Energy Rick Perry Announces $30 Million Investment in Advanced Nuclear Technology

    DECEMBER 7, 2017

    “Today, U.S. Secretary of Energy Rick Perry released a funding opportunity announcement (FOA) to support development of advanced nuclear energy technology. The Department of Energy (DOE) is soliciting proposals for cost-shared projects to develop innovative, industry-driven reactor designs and accompanying technologies with high potential to advance nuclear power in the United States.

    “Targeted early-stage investment in advanced nuclear technology will support a strong domestic industry now and into the future,” said Secretary Perry. “This funding opportunity is an important step to ensure our nation continues to benefit from this clean, resilient source of electricity.”

    DOE expects to make up to $30 million or more available in FY 2018 awards, subject to the availability of funding. The FOA will be open for a five-year period accepting applications on a year-round basis, with a quarterly selection process. Additional funding will be available in future years, as allocated by Congress.”

    https://www.energy.gov/articles/secretary-energy-rick-perry-announces-30-million-investment-advanced-nuclear-technology#.WimBd5P5ypY.twitter

  18. On December 8, 2017 at 4:23 am,
    silvernotabug dave says:

    It’s Bitcoin Bitcoin Bitcoin. It’s destroying the gold and silver markets. Maybe not but it’d starting just to creep a little into he discussion. Includes links to various Kitco interviews, some complacent and some cautionary about the state of gold and silver. This is my take and it is not investment advice:
    http://1000gold.blogspot.co.uk/2017/12/will-bitcoin-destroy-gold-market_4.html

    I also penned an article about Bitcoin and the financial system that links to the 2013 interview with the two guys in a squat trading Bitcoin and some other interesting features on the subject. As Bitcoin and cryptos are getting to be the market cap equal to top 10 S&P 500 companies, the effect on the financial system becomes relevant fromnow on in my opinion:
    http://1000gold.blogspot.co.uk/2017/12/will-bitcoindestroy-current-financial.html
    This also links to interviews with Jim Rogers and the ‘CEO’ of Bitcoin Cash.

  19. On December 8, 2017 at 4:30 am,
    silvernotabug dave says:

    The gold/Bitcoin article above has links to interviews with Doug Casey, frank Holmes, Wells Fargo’s John La Forge (who calls for $1050 gold and says it is a secular bear market), JIm Rogers, Rick Falvinge of Bitcoin Cash, Jim Creamer and the World Gold Council’s gold demand trands page reports showing overall godl demand down from 2016. All of them are worth a listten or read because they have conflicting views on the matter.

    Personally I think BTC and other cryptos will hit gold and silver hard as well as the junior miners – until the crypto bubble bursts or stabilizes. I wonder if we are in for some short to medium term grief in PMs and their stocks. It will be interesting to see if there is a major flight out of gold and silver or if the crypto bubble is almost over and the dips in gold and silver are shorter term.
    [http://1000gold.blogspot.co.uk/2017/12/will-bitcoin-destroy-gold-market_4.html]

  20. On December 8, 2017 at 4:32 am,
    silvernotabug dave says:

    As a final comment I note how Craig has neatly sidestepped talking about gold and silver as they are tanking yet again. He must be out of explanations or excuses.

  21. On December 8, 2017 at 4:37 am,
    OOTB Jerry says:
    • On December 8, 2017 at 4:44 am,
      Excelsior says:

      The bitcoin : bubble – Together to the mooon : (Music Video) – Hilarious !

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=79&v=KTf5j9LDObk

      • On December 8, 2017 at 5:07 am,
        OOTB Jerry says:

        Future NFL star………….I like his outfit……lol

        • On December 8, 2017 at 5:55 am,
          Excelsior says:

          The contrast between the words and the corny music video made me chuckle.

          The very end on Ethereum was the best part.

  22. On December 8, 2017 at 4:40 am,
    OOTB Jerry says:

    Wow……….silver up .09cents………on the rebound……….

    • On December 8, 2017 at 6:13 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Gold And Silver Bulls, Don’t Give Up Yet

      Avi Gilburt – Friday, 8 December 2017

      “The “sentiment” in the metals complex now ranges from indifferent to very bearish. In fact, I am seeing many just posting how they are just fed up with the metals complex, and just want to move on. And, that is often the time when fireworks are seen. So, I think it is prudent that we remain on our toes right now, just as many seem to giving up.”

      http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1512741960.php

      • On December 8, 2017 at 6:16 am,
        Excelsior says:

        Bingo.

        Reposting my thoughts from yesterday morning along the same lines:

        I had mentioned back in October when things were starting to fizzle, instead of continuing the good run in September, that we’d likely see a pullback into mid December during the end of tax loss selling, and before the FOMC meeting on next Tue/Wed (Dec 12th & 13th). This is where it seemed like the best place to lay down the last tranche of dry powder for 2017.

        This is the exact same pattern we saw play out in Dec of 2015 and Dec of 2016 where things sold down to their lows in mid December, with all the rumblings and worries over the rate hike, only for the metals to and miners to recover in late Dec and surge in Jan/Feb/early March. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if we see that same pattern play out again.

        As a result, I’ll be adding to my Silver/Gold stocks the rest of this week and beginning of next week into the carnage, but expect the bounce to commence at the end of next week.

        Good luck to everyone in their trading.

        • On December 8, 2017 at 6:31 am,
          Wolfster says:

          Was tempted to buy more Auryn when it hit my $1.80 target but I decided(chickened out perhaps) not to. Waiting for them to start releasing news first. I’m not as confident in management at this point

          • On December 8, 2017 at 6:45 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Yes, Auryn is behind on releasing results, which hurt investor confidence to some degree, but some of that is that assay labs being backed up, and some of that is just regular over-promising and under-delivering in the mining sector. It isn’t unique to Auryn and it reminds me of 99% of the companies out there 🙂

  23. On December 8, 2017 at 5:12 am,
    OOTB Jerry says:

    Bitcoin out of the bag…….govt is powerless ………so they say
    https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/novogratz-governments-wont-be-able-to-muzzle-bitcoin/

    • On December 8, 2017 at 6:04 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Keiser is a bit nutty, but I will say this was more of the more “lively” Kitco interviews:

      Bitcoin Will Outperform Everything Including Warren Buffett Says Max Keiser – Part 1

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NsMlIIyaTsk

      • On December 8, 2017 at 6:23 am,
        Excelsior says:

        Bitcoin $16,666.66

        by @Goldfinger on December 8, 2017

        “Bitcoin mania is in full effect, with the leading cryptocurrency nearly reaching $20,000 on at least one exchange yesterday. However, it’s interesting to note that it seems there weren’t any trade of significant size above $17,000 yesterday, interestingly enough Trading View is showing a “$16,666.66″ official high for yesterday:”

        https://ceo.ca/@goldfinger/bitcoin-1666666

  24. On December 8, 2017 at 5:58 am,
    Excelsior says:

    Cobalt 27 Announces $85M Bought Deal Offering of Common Shares
    by @marketwired on December 7, 2017

    “Cobalt 27 will use the net proceeds from the Offering to purchase up to 720 metric tonnes of physical cobalt currently under option for a total purchase price of approximately US$58 million (approximately $75 million), representing an average price of US$36.39 per pound of cobalt, a 10% premium to the Cobalt High Grade Metal Bulletin ask price of US$33.00 per pound on December 6, 2017. ”

    https://ceo.ca/@marketwired/cobalt-27-announces-85m-bought-deal-offering-of-common

    • On December 8, 2017 at 6:33 am,
      Wolfster says:

      And first cobalt did a bought deal as well. Cobalt still looking hot. Like first cobalt and fortune minerals in that sector. Not sure yet about ecobalt yet

      • On December 8, 2017 at 6:47 am,
        Excelsior says:

        Yeah, saw the news about First Cobalt, and they also put out news recently that they acquired some new property as well. Yes Fortune Minerals has some potential and I’ve been watching it for a while as well. Ecobalt is widely followed and loved, but it looks frothier to me than some of the other names.

        • On December 8, 2017 at 7:04 am,
          Wolfster says:

          Exactly!!!!….but as bitcoin as shown when something comes in favour it can get ahead of itself or maybe we are just behind the curve so to speak.

          • On December 8, 2017 at 7:19 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Good point. I was aware of eCobalt and Bitcoin and Novo long before they rallied higher and higher, but just couldn’t justify chasing them higher, but higher they all went. I even held and believed in the Novo story long before the youtube videos of the metal detectors and the “Panic in the Pilbara”, but couldn’t get my head around how high it just kept rising without substantive news. With Bitcoin I was looking at it around the $100-$200 range, and was almost convinced to take a punt but then was too worried about it being a passing fancy, although an interesting idea. When it surged back in 2014, I told friends to be cautious and lock in some gains, and same thing on the last few rallies. That was good advice because there were a few violent corrections in Bitcoin, but the run from 2016 into 2017 just simply exceeded anything I could imagine. It is truly the “Madness of Crowds” in full effect.

            Just look at the huge spike in interest that happened over Thanksgiving weekend and the 100,000 new account that popped up the day afterwards. Obviously the Millennials did a lot of promotion and story sharing to the GenXers and Boomers over that meal. 😉

            For me it is so much easier to buy stocks when they are getting crushed, than it is to add when they are flying higher. That is one of the skill sets and mindsets I’m still working on developing. Letting one’s winners Ruuuuuuuuuuuuuun! Cheers!

          • On December 8, 2017 at 7:45 am,
            Excelsior says:

            17 things most millennials have never heard of
            Mark Abadi 2hours ago

            http://www.businessinsider.com/things-millennials-have-never-heard-of-2017-12/#green-stamps-1

          • On December 8, 2017 at 7:53 am,
            Excelsior says:

            People need to read this post from John McAfee. It seems quite irrational to everything learned since the history of economics, finance, and invest, but MAYBE this time it’s different……. 😉

            “Bubbles are mathematically impossible in this new paradigm. So are corrections and all else” (WTF???)

            http://cdn.ceo.ca/1d2labf-D87D50E7-31E0-462A-B65C-0B25F72D7561.jpeg

          • On December 8, 2017 at 8:00 am,
            Wolfster says:

            Yes I run rather than let them run…….on the zinc side really liking tinka and fireweed.Need more time to do dd on things. This work thing is really hampering my trading abilities

          • On December 8, 2017 at 8:13 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Yes both TK and FZZ are solid companies.

            TK just doubled their resources in a prolific mining area, and FZZ is going to updating their resources soon. I also like what CZX, VTT, and CNX have been up to lately.

  25. On December 8, 2017 at 8:41 am,
    OOTB Jerry says:
    • On December 8, 2017 at 8:43 am,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      That question, in a nutshell, is the essence of trading. You make most of your gains from a handful of names where you owned enough to really generate an outsized return. Put on 20 ideas a week, and 1-2 really work. The trick is to identify those early enough and then buy or short as much as you can stomach. The rest of your ideas usually just net out to zero.

      • On December 8, 2017 at 8:45 am,
        OOTB Jerry says:

        I bring all this up because I have noticed something strange in my conversations about bitcoin with many savvy Wall Street types: they don’t know/remember many old-school rules of trading. Perhaps the last +5 years of low volatility US equity markets have made those skills rusty. Or maybe they think crypto currencies are different from equities – more volatile, different fundamentals, whatever…

        • On December 8, 2017 at 8:48 am,
          OOTB Jerry says:

          #1: Respect the trend. No one is bigger than the market. Early is the same thing as wrong. Don’t short new highs or buy new lows. Don’t buy or sell based purely on valuation.

          Sorry for all the clichés, but they are all 100% correct. Trading means admitting you aren’t the smartest person in the market. Someone always knows more than you, and chances are good they are acting on knowledge you don’t have.

          This is especially true with crypto currencies. They are – and will continue to be – extremely leaky in terms of information flow. You will never, ever, be the first to know anything.

          #2: Plan your trade, then trade your plan. One thing I learned at SAC is to document everything I thought was important prior to entering a trade. Catalysts – events like earnings announcements, management presentations, trade shows – were on the list in minute detail. So were macro events that might move the stock, as well as market events like rebalances and options expiration.

          Case in point: the bitcoin futures set to launch next week. I’ve heard plenty of people say these will be beneficial to bitcoin’s price. And with bitcoin ramping to new highs today, that seems to be right. But will that trend continue once the futures start to trade? That is an entirely different calculus. And I doubt anyone really knows what will happen.

          #3: Set targets, stops, and time frames and write them all down before you buy your first share. This sounds simple, but the process is extremely helpful. You pair up your expected catalysts with price targets and time frames.

          Remember the “Why didn’t you get bigger?” question… This is where it makes its appearance. You won’t always know how “right” or “wrong” you are until events start to unfold. But sometimes you really have it right, and that’s when you add to a position instead of just taking profits and moving on. You were right about something, but didn’t see just how powerful your observation was.

          Writing everything down before you start eliminates some of the selective memory bias we all have, and keeps today’s “You” honest relative to “you” before you entered the trade. Those are two different people, and they need to be able to communicate honestly with each other.

          #4: Don’t ever turn a trade into an investment. In the words of Bob Dylan, “If something’s not right, it’s wrong.” Even for a small position, if it is a loser you sell it. We’re not managing P&L here; we’re managing your time. Once you sell something you will spend no further time worrying about it. You can make more money – you can’t make more time.

          #5: Know yourself. Everyone has different risk tolerances, so no two trading styles are exactly the same. Some traders can carry 10 positions and maxed out leverage and happily live with the resultant volatility. Others (myself included), like to limit drawdowns and always have gas in the tank in the form of unused capital.

          • On December 8, 2017 at 9:07 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Great words of wisdom OOTB.

          • On December 8, 2017 at 9:13 am,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            Give credit to the author….at zerohedge……I just copied it….
            But, I thought it was sound advice worth copying ……..as I see you agree……. 🙂