David Erfle - Gold Market Commentary – Tue 12 Dec, 2017

A Few PM Stocks That Have Encouraging Charts

David Erfle, The Junior Miner Junky joins me today to outline a couple charts in the metals sector that he finds encouraging. We also discuss the upcoming Fed rate hike and statement in terms of potential market moves.

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  1. On December 12, 2017 at 12:54 pm,
    Matthew says:

    Bonzo Barzini: I think USAS is bottoming and now consider it a buy…


    • On December 12, 2017 at 1:12 pm,
      Matthew says:

      If the Fed (or anything) throws a wrench into the sector, here are a few other bigger picture supports to watch:

      • On December 12, 2017 at 11:32 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        Good charts Matthew. I actually added to my USAS position this morning, and thought this looked like a good spot for a bounce.

        However, Docs comments below have me concerned now since he’s looking for $2.50 – 2.75. There were a few minor troughs that line up between the $2.60-$2.66 level which would be right in that range.

        Darn it – what to do….. what to do….. (?)

        From strictly a fundamental basis, I look at the fact that San Rafael has moved forward with production startup and is ramping up as expected, and they’ll be dropping their costs down from $10 AISC down to around $3-$4 AISC over the next 3-6 months. With more analysts following the story, and taking the improving economics into account, then 2018 should be a breakthrough year for them.

        I may have to take evasive action if there are any surprises, but figured if the metals rallied in late Dec into Jan/Feb that this would be a solid name to be holding.

        In addition I’ve been buying SVM Silvercorp the last 2 weeks as it is also operating down in the $4 AISC range.

        Both Americas Silver and Silvercorp have the best costs out of the mid-tiers moving into next year.

        • On December 13, 2017 at 3:07 am,
          Excelsior says:

          November  20,  2017

          “Americas Silver Corporation (USA) (USAS) is pleased to announce it has commenced production from the San Rafael Mine as the sole source of mill feed at the Comany’s Cosalá Operations in Sinaloa, Mexico.”

          “Initially, the Company is targeting a throughput of 1500 tonnes per day. The mine is currently producing over 1000 tonnes per day as it continues its ramp‐up. There is a stockpile in excess of 25,000 tonnes of San Rafael ore and a further 50,000 tonnes of Nuestra Señora ore at the mill, if required. ”

          “The San Rafael Mine is expected to drive significant earnings and cash flow at current metals prices for shareholders starting in Q1, 2018 and over the life of the mine. It is projected to provide a meaningful reduction in the consolidated cash costs and all in sustaining costs. The Company expects that it will declare commercial production at the mine before the end of Q4, 2017. ”


          • On December 13, 2017 at 3:14 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Americas Silver Corp: December 2017 – Corporate Presentation

            2018 Estimated All-In-Sustaining-Cost $3.00 (see page 10)

            “Silver equivalent figures and estimated silver costs for 2018 are based on $17.00 per ounce silver, $1.05 per pound lead, $1.25 per pound zinc and $2.50 per pound copper.”


        • On December 13, 2017 at 8:26 am,
          Excelsior says:

          SVM is up nicely today speaking of Silvercorp.

          Really, most of the Silver stocks are up today, and everyone knows a rate hike is already baked in the cake, so we’ll see how things go in the afternoon after the meeting.

    • On December 12, 2017 at 2:07 pm,
      bonzo barzini says:

      Matthew, thanks. I was thinking the same thing this morning and am glad you feel the same way. Some say it cold earn .45 a share next year. And some say Rye Patch could earn .20 in 2020 and could be a 20-bagger.

      • On December 12, 2017 at 2:33 pm,
        RICHARD/DOC says:

        BB; I wouldn’t be in a hurry—I’m looking at USAS to hit between 2.50 and 2.75.

        • On December 12, 2017 at 3:19 pm,
          Chartster says:

          Writings of wisdom, BB. It’s heading south.

          • On December 12, 2017 at 3:48 pm,
            bonzo barzini says:

            Thanks, Doc, it is still tax loss season.

          • On December 12, 2017 at 4:40 pm,
            Matthew says:

            As you know, I said weeks ago that it would go below $3 but it could have a hard time doing so if the sector turns up very soon as it appears to want to.
            The miners have been acting better than the metals for the last several sessions and it is cyclically a good time for a turn up while the stock market is ready for a break.

            SILJ:GDX has been below the 200 week MA for the last five weeks while becoming weekly oversold. If it can take that level back this week, it will be a good sign for the sector…


          • On December 12, 2017 at 11:56 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Matthew – those were my thoughts as well. I’ve been waiting and waiting for USAS to pull back under $3 and it has held up far better than expected when other names were getting creamed. I figured if that if there was a bottoming process before Christmas here at the end of tax loss selling, the Fed meeting tomorrow, and the seasonal December Dip, that this would be a good spot to add my final tranche.

            Oh well, we’ll know soon enough. If we get a little pip or blip up maybe I’ll lighten this one back up a little, but will take things one day at a time.

          • On December 13, 2017 at 11:42 am,
            Excelsior says:

            USAS is up 5% today despite the Fedbabble. Encouraging reaction.

          • On December 13, 2017 at 12:00 pm,
            Matthew says:

            7.8% right now.

          • On December 13, 2017 at 1:03 pm,
            Matthew says:
      • On December 12, 2017 at 4:32 pm,
        CFS says:

        I’m putting chainmail gloves to catch these falling knives.

        • On December 12, 2017 at 4:33 pm,
          CFS says:

          Gotta take crypto profits.

        • On December 12, 2017 at 6:33 pm,
          Matthew says:

          For a some, like Impact Silver, it’s been a rubber knife since August…


          • On December 13, 2017 at 12:03 am,
            Excelsior says:

            I just added one more round to my Impact Silver position at the end of last week as well; so…. pretty stocked up on it now. There are a number of bottom feeders over at ceo waiting to jump into IPT so we should start seeing some of the money the sidelines come back into the space before year-end.

  2. On December 12, 2017 at 1:10 pm,
    OOTB Jerry says:
    • On December 12, 2017 at 1:12 pm,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      Senator John Barrasso (R-WY) is turning up the heat on the Uranium One investigation, demanding documents from both the Energy Department and the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) in a Monday letter to both entities. Barrasso wants to find out if he was intentionally misled by the Obama administration about Uranium One being able to export yellowcake uranium out of the United States after the company was acquired by Russia

      • On December 12, 2017 at 1:12 pm,
        OOTB Jerry says:

        Frank better buy some bitcoin and get lawyered up…………..jmo

        • On December 12, 2017 at 7:11 pm,
          Markedtofuture says:

          Texts between ex-Mueller team members emerge, calling Trump ‘loathsome human,’ ‘an idiot’

          Text messages between FBI officials Peter Strzok and Lisa Page in 2016 referred to then-candidate Donald Trump as a “loathsome human” and “an idiot,” Fox News can reveal.

          More than 10,000 texts between Strzok and Page were being reviewed by the Justice Department after Strzok was removed from Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s Russia probe after it was revealed that some of them contained anti-Trump content.

          The bulk of the messages obtained by Fox News were sent on March 4 of last year, as Trump held a sizable lead in the GOP primary race.

          “God, Trump is a loathsome human,” Page texted Strzok on that date.

          “Yet he many[sic] win,” Strzok responded. “Good for Hillary.”

          Later the same day, Strzok texted Page, “Omg [Trump’s] an idiot.”

          “He’s awful,” Page answered.

          “America will get what the voting public deserves,” said Strzok, to which Page responded. “That’s what I’m afraid of.”


  3. On December 12, 2017 at 1:14 pm,
    Matthew says:
  4. On December 12, 2017 at 1:16 pm,
    Matthew says:
  5. On December 12, 2017 at 1:21 pm,
    Matthew says:
  6. On December 12, 2017 at 2:19 pm,
    bonzo barzini says:

    Hanukkah starts at sundown tonight. Although I am descended from English protestants(3 were on the Mayflower), French Huguenot protestants who came to Lancaster Co., PA in 1690, and Prussian Lutherans who came over to Wisconsin in the 1860’s,I want to wish everyone here and in Jerusalem a very happy Hanukkah!

  7. On December 12, 2017 at 4:50 pm,
    CFS says:

    Ira’s end of day TA;

    • On December 13, 2017 at 2:29 am,
      Excelsior says:

      That was a good session today with Ira and he did a good job reviewing the Slow Stochastics and Bollinger Bands within this presentation. Thanks.

  8. On December 13, 2017 at 5:05 am,
    confused says:
  9. On December 13, 2017 at 5:06 am,
    confused says:

    Song about our times….but done in the late 80’s.
    Sad to see Chris Rea so sick…..hope he can keep going

  10. On December 13, 2017 at 7:44 am,
    Excelsior says:

    EMX Royalty Provides an Update on Royalty Properties in Scandinavia and Boreal Metals Equity Interest
    (Newsfile Corp. – December 13, 2017)

    “EMX Royalty Corporation (EMX) is pleased to congratulate Boreal Metals Corp. on obtaining an initial public listing and the commencement of trading on the TSX Venture Exchange as a Tier 2 issuer. EMX holds 9,205,882 common shares of BMX representing ~18.1% on an issued and outstanding basis, in addition to NSR royalty interests over Boreal’s four exploration projects in Scandinavia.”


  11. On December 13, 2017 at 7:47 am,
    Excelsior says:

    Bob Moriarty on Bitcoin, The South Sea Bubble, Ponzi Schemes, and The Pilbara Gold Rush

    Energy and Gold Ltd. – CeoTechnician – Dec 13, 2017


  12. On December 13, 2017 at 8:27 am,
    bonzo barzini says:

    Doc, NAT is down a buck today to 2.68. Are you ready to buy yet? They announced they are selling another 40 million shares @2.75 on 12-15-17