Pullback Expected in US Markets and Commodities
There are a few factors that have Doc thinking we could see a pullback in the US markets and commodities early next year. For the markets it has been a historically low volatility year with the VIX consistently hitting signal digits. Also factoring in the second year of a presidency is never as good for markets, there should be some weakness in 2018. As for commodities Doc and I follow up on the comments made by Chris Temple earlier today.
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I’ll go with silver. Mogambo Guru, the Lone Ranger, and Bob M like it too.
I’m very heavily weighted towards Silver miners at present, but I do that each year during tax loss selling season. Silver miners typically outperform Gold miners on the rallies we see coming out of the Dec lows and moving into the Q1 Run.
We have discussed this over and over again for years on the KER, but Goldfinger had a nice chart out today just showing the moves out of the December lows in GDX (which is rather sluggish and muted compared to many higher torque Jrs).
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@Goldfinger – “Is it really that simple? Buy $gold miners in December and make big returns within 1-2 months?”
Goldfinger makes a great point regarding how much more lean & mean the miners are now that at the top of the last cycle. When the metals prices move up in 2018 & 2019, these companies should set to actually make some nice money. (what a novel concept).
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@Goldfinger – “Always a great Chart illustrating how much more profitable Gold miners are now relative to where they were in 2011 when gold was $500+ higher:”
http://cdn.ceo.ca/1d47t66-4D4DF4EE-625D-4083-9AF9-F1B90C756A67.jpeg
The first two weeks of January, 2016 did not tell the tale for the rest of the year but I bet it will this year. The market is extraordinarily overbought now so you can bet that smart money is selling into all strength – and then some.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=DIA&p=W&yr=7&mn=11&dy=22&id=p11927310647
The big question for me: Does that DIA/S&P money rotate into gold, silver, and (of course) PM miners? Maybe the rotation is just INTO commodities, in general?
It will flow into commodities in general, but disproportionately into the PM space since it is negatively correlated with the economy — which will get squeezed by higher interest rates, falling stocks, and rising prices. The PM miners are where most of the best values are, and, therefore, where the best action will be. Looking at the miners relative to gold, we can see that they are almost certainly entering what will be their biggest, truest bull market in decades. Despite the huge moves of 2016, the senior gold miners are still way below their 2008 lows when priced in gold.
$GDM:$GOLD weekly looks fantastic:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GDM%3A%24GOLD&p=W&yr=3&mn=6&dy=9&id=p54274149008&a=565922406
On this monthly chart you can see that $GDM:$GOLD still needs to rise 18% just to reach its 2008 “armageddon” spike low:
Armageddon – Official Trailer
2018 Predictions & Beyond – Almost All Positive – Clif High
Internet data mining expert Clif High says he’s “heartened by the positive nature of the information” he’s received in his latest report. Clif High uses something he calls “Predictive Linguistics,” which sorts through billions of bits of information to predict future trends and events. One of many big predictions Clif High made several months ago involved sexual misconduct would be revealed, especially in the mainstream media. So, are the sexual misconduct revelations over? Clif High says, “No, the part we saw in 2017 was kind of like the titles. We’ve got the main feature coming up in 2018 and in 2019. The volume of words involved in this scandal is going to quadruple or larger. It will take a couple of years to lay out. It will also involve a third or more of Congress, many of whom will elect to not continue in order to sidestep or try to sidestep legal issues as a result of their past behavior. . . . The data sets seem to indicate that some of the people taking hits now are doing so because they know there are far worse crimes they could be accused of, and so they are happy to get out of town, or get out of Dodge on just this little charge so to speak.”
So, does President Trump win the so-called “Fake News” war? In a word, Clif High says, “Yes. . . . It’s been kosher for the media to lie because they have been given some level of protection with their propaganda act. The data is suggesting that somebody is going to find a legal way to sue what we call the mainstream media for, I guess you could say, consumer fraud.”
Clif High says there is good news coming, but not just for 2018, many years after. Clif High explains, “There is a really interesting set of data that’s been building for some time, and we have had this big flush of long term data, which is why I decided to do this report that is going out five years. I named it the “Soaring Twenties,” even though we are not into the 2020’s. . . . Our 2020’s, to some extent, are replicating the kind of language in the newspapers and limited news reels they had at the time of the 1920’s. Only instead of being “The Roaring Twenties,” we’re going to have a “Soaring Twenties” because it’s a combination of an economic boom and a technological boom that are feeding off each other. This positive feedback is being sparked around the language of the (Trump) tax redo. It’s not a reform, it’s a total redo. . . .The money coming back is going to create a resurgence. A new kind of American is going to be rising out of this resurgence. We are going to be in a new great generation forming, not the Millennials, but the ones that are behind them.”
Clif High also talks about a coming “bond debacle,” soaring gold and silver prices in 2018 . . . the future of Bitcoin and other crypto currencies, legal actions taken against the bad actors in government and the “Deep State.” Clif High also predicts some “fantastic levels of business failures.”
Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with Clif High
https://usawatchdog.com/2018-predictions-beyond-almost-all-positive-clif-high/
MTF, I think we could see a resurgent America as well. DT
DT..very upbeat forecast. After wittnessing this first round of crytomania, I can see where they can lose control of the Crimex. There are a lot of evil things being exposed that would be nice to see continue. It is time these elite creeps were put behind bars with their banker buddies where they belong.
The news media is lying their a$$es off. CNN putting itself out of business within 2 years seems within reason. I thought CNBC was the low man on the totem pole, but them and MSNBC are tied. If 50% of his predictions come true, we will have a lot better world to live in.
Hannity Promises To Expose CNN & NBC News In “EpicFail”
“One week from tonight I will expose @CNN and @NBCNews news for #EpicFail…”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-12-27/hannity-promises-expose-cnn-nbc-news-epicfail
Well, I thought cliff was more of a tinfoil hat than I am, which makes ya gotta wonder.
Credit where its due tho, he has been getting it right.
Bitcoin really could go to…who knows.
Thinking of gold shares, people have watched for years just how crooked the PM market is, heck, movies have been made about it and we all know thats where most people get their education from.
novo being the last big excitment, and what happened?
If anyone was watching what did they see?
What are people going to think of goldshares?
Sorry, but it looks like the same ol thing.
With law, the law has to appear to be just, fair etc
Appearance means something.
Bre ex is not forgotten.
Now compare that to bitcoin and the tech Cliff is talking about, if ya look ya can find articles already of some of this tech happening.
Wheres the money going to go? pot of course. lol
One thing Cliff does say, is he likes silver, and gold ….goes to the moon, lol
But then, people figure out what some people have been mentioning for years, there is more gold around than is imaginable today.
(all demand has been met)
Like diamonds, held to keep the price higher than it should be.
Gonna be a shock to those that havnt seen manipulation, down and up.
Course, Cliffs hat might be picking up messages from a dimension most of us dont hear.
from, the lizard people maybe? And everyone knows theyre up to no good.
lol
Good luck everyone.
You talking about the half past human guy? I get him confused with Cliff Pie the guy who’s on George Noory talking about those goofy crystal skulls.
b, are you half past human? I tell you, I’m so fed up with people I am completely past human! The more I’m around people the more I like my dog!
funny Ebolan!
I’m a bit fed of up with people as well.
I find myself taking longer nature hikes, because it is so refreshing unplugging from it all.
Then I come in and get right behind the glowing screen once again (of course) 🙂
Been saying that for years Ebolan.
He always says “It’s in the data.” It sounds like he uses something similar to the Merlin Projects and Timetraks. George Noory has those guys on his show and their predictions are typically vague or entirely wrong.
Think I said I figured his tin foil hat got more channels than mine does.
Thing is, he got some stuff right, just lucky maybe, but when he says the exposing of these pedophile animals is just beginining Im gonna hope hes right till he is proven wrong.
Course, Cliffs hat might be picking up messages from a dimension most of us dont hear.
He ain’t named high for nothing. 🙂
Thats funny, I got just the company he might be interested in.
As Doc Mentioned, back in the day it was preferable to get the recession out of the way as early in the term as could be so as to hit the next Presidential election cycle with the economy on the mend.
Infrastructure will have to have help from the Dems. Otherwise, trump won’t get it done. Deficit hawks will be back in vogue. Even though the Dems tried to interest trump on infrastructure earlier, I’m wondering if they’re still interested. We’ll see.
The Dems will fall all over themselves to get infrastructure done. Obama dropped the INFRA ball, while doubling down on the debt. 8 years of learning how to be politically correct didn’t work out too well. The DEMS need something to show for besides resist. The DNC rigging of the election can’t be swept under the rug too much longer. Trump knows what restructuring is all about.
Its time the primary dealers take a hair cut and get the usuary laws back on the books. The upcoming generation, still doesn’t know what administration caused the last crash doing away with Glass Stegall. Who changed the BK student loan debt discharge procedures to keep them on the hook for life.
Sanders didn’t have much choice letting them walk all over his election bid. They had plenty of imbedded help in pulling it off. Too bad the electoral college got in the way.
Not much mention of Awad having the DNC & congressional servers operating out of the cloud through Pakinstan. Should be a very interesting few years seeing how many on both sides have their control files released.
Bitcoin Investors Will Be Crawling Back To Gold Says Agnico’s Sean Boyd
Dec 21, 2017 – #VIDEO (Wishful Thinking?)
“Bitcoin may have taken a chunk out of gold demand but Sean Boyd, CEO of Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM), thinks the crypto craze will work to the yellow metal’s advantage.”
This stuff is funny, didnt Bob say that when all the experts agree they are wrong?
Something like that anyway.
Cliff……, mentioning cause I just watched usa watchdog, says PMs going thru the roof(my words) what can I say?, goldbug writers been sayin it for years and years.
I really have no idea, but I do believe we are headed to a future that most of us dont really comprehend, this blockchain/bitcoin technology may really be changing the world as we know it.
I like to think that this slavery and pedephilia finally gets extinguished.
THAT, could be what this new tech represents.
As well as respect for the environment becoming fashionable.
Too much to hope for maybe.
By the way, like ur diversify portfolio ex, except ya didnt mention fine art.
czn,cuu, might turn into somtin.
Yeah, I don’t do the fine art. My lady is a painter, as are several friends, so we have her art up along with some others paintings around the house. To me they look “fine,’ but nothing is at investment grade. Art valuation is so subjective I don’t understand it.
you prefer Art Novo………. lol
🙂
I tell her all the time I’m working on art as well, and then show her a chart with a lot of pretty colors. She just rolls her eyes and shakes her head. I notice she doesn’t complain when I take her out to eat or we travel on the proceeds. (lol)
I love fine art, both my parents were artists and when I grew up it was like living in an Art Gallery. I can’t draw or paint but I have an eye for the value of art, but only because of my exposure to it. DT
New Trump Executive Order Targets Clinton-Linked Individuals, Lobbyists And Perhaps Uranium One
The order goes after “serious human rights abuse” and corruption – including misappropriation of state assets, the expropriation of private assets for personal gain, and corruption related to government contracts or the extraction of natural resources…
Bob Moriarty – Stop, Look, Listen, and Then
Proven And Probable – Dec 23, 2017
“In this exclusive interview, Bob Moriarty the founder of 321gold and 321energy sits down with Maurice Jackson of Proven and Probable to address a number of highly qualitative issuers that and are selling at a deep, deep discount. We will discover what precious metals Bob is purchasing presently and why! Bob, will convey how one’s portfolio will benefit from understanding mass psychology. Equally important, Bob shares the merits of understanding and having the discipline on knowing when to sell.”
Bob reviews – Novo Resources, Kirkland Lake, Jericho Oil, Anaconda Mining, Metallic Minerals.
I’m rooting big for ANX in the new year, and it’s been rather peppy the last few weeks.
McCain Associate Subpoenaed Over Trump Dossier
The House Intelligence Committee issued a subpoena to an associate of John McCain over his connection with the salacious dossier containing unverified allegations about Trump and his ties to Russia, which according to many served as the illegitimate basis for FISA warrants against the Trump campaign
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-12-27/mccain-associate-subpoenaed-over-trump-dossier
Funny how Cliff High predicts what’s going on right now, now. I’ve said this was going to happen the whole time. The Donald was picked by people that have been working on the ” America First Plan ” for more than 30 years… He’s just the brilliant Teflon coated one that could pull it off. Like , pulling off , bringing back a real REPUBLIC.
Happening in front of you ( if you know it or, not” )
20 trillion of debt and 20 trillion of misappropriated funds. If those funds were recovered, would we have any debt? It is the question of the century. The big question is: what would happen to off-set the debt? Who actually owes that debt? What would / will occur? Which begs the question: how will that occurance affect asset prices?? Hmm
Start here…….recover some funds from the over paid fed workers.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-12-27/1mm-minute-salaries-22bn-year-vacation-pay-and-other-fun-facts-about-federal
10. There are an additional 2 million undisclosed employees at the Department of Defense and in the active military. Their estimated cash compensation value, combined with $1 billion in undisclosed bonuses and $125 billion in hidden pension data, amounts to roughly $221 billion in undisclosed federal cash compensation per year.
Over a six-year period (FY2010-2016), the number of federal employees making $200,000 or more has increased by 165 percent; those making $150,000 or more has grown by 60 percent; and those making more than $100,000 has increased by 37 percent.
3. On average, federal employees are given 10 federal holidays, 13 sick days, and 20 vacation days per year. If each employee used 13 sick days and took 20 vacation days in addition to the 10 federal holidays, it would cost taxpayers an estimated $22.6 billion annually.
4. In FY2016, a total 406,960 employees made six-figure incomes – that’s roughly one in five disclosed federal employees. Furthermore, 29,852 federal employees out-earned each of the 50 state governors receiving more than $190,823.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q9pnc7IXpC0,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,$9 Trillion missing at FED.
$44 breakfast for govt worksers……
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PYhGE5axf2Q
And the big question: will the executive order Trump just did recover those funds? Uh, yeup, I’m thinking it will…
good use of “yeup” Chartster 🙂
Off Topic:
SACRAMENTO, Calif. (AP) — The confusing rollout of marijuana regulations in California has been underscored in Mendocino County, where local authorities licensed a company to deliver pot only to have state police arrest two employees who were trying to do just that with nearly a ton of weed.
The workers for Old Kai Distribution were transporting the marijuana from a farm when they were pulled over Friday afternoon by a California Highway Patrol officer on Highway 101 near Ukiah, according to Joe Rogoway, an attorney for the company. They were driving an unmarked van and were stopped for a traffic violation.
The workers showed the officer the company’s county license and a manifest for the marijuana, but the officer insisted it was illegal, called for backup and arrested the men.
The company argues it can transport marijuana within the county with its local license, and county spokeswoman Sarah Dukett backed that interpretation. She said Old Kai was issued a distribution license last week that allows it to legally transport marijuana under two local ordinances passed earlier this year.
The workers were cited for unlawful transportation of marijuana and unlawful possession for sale. Investigators also seized all of the marijuana and the company’s van.
CFS Comment: Methinks the cops see a quick high and profit potential!
BITCOIN CRASH UPDATE after nailing top within days – WHAT NEXT FOR THE SNOWFLAKE LEMMINGS?
Clive Maund – Sunday, December 24, 2017
“It’s been a rough week for the latecomer Millennial lemmings trying to get rich without doing any work – MANY WENT STRAIGHT OVER THE EDGE OF THE CLIFF, JUST AS WE PREDICTED THEY WOULD, and are now lying in a squirming heap at the bottom of it.”
“Those who warned of the danger like Adam Hamilton, Bob Moriarty and myself were laughed at and derided – we were whistling in the wind and we knew it – BECAUSE YOU CAN’T STOP A DETERMINED FOOL. Hopefully though a few more thoughtful souls heeded the warnings and either took a whacking great profit or stayed away, which makes our efforts worthwhile. On clivemaund.com a Bitcoin Total Wipeout Alert was posted on Wednesday 13th December and followed by The Greatest Fool on Monday 18th December, so that Bitcoin’s peak approaching $20,000, which occurred during last weekend, was framed by these two stark warnings.”
“So what now – is this a “buy the dip” situation as some believe, or is the final top in? That is the question we will now attempt to answer… ”
However, in the spirit of looking at both sides of the debate, there have been a number of commentators calling for the top in Bitcoin, year after year and having to eat humble pie each time.
There can be little doubt that this was a big shakeout though, and at least an intermediate top.
We’re in very uncharted waters on the size and magnitude of the move up in Bitcoin, but I tend to agree with some other commentators, that after this rout, there may be one more rip your face off rally that takes Bitcoin into a blow off top.
However, those traders using margin to go all in on Bitcoin just had their tail ends handed to them, and in a way, that needed to happen to cause a little carnage and wash out the irrational exuberance sentiment a bit.
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This has been posted before but it really illustrates EXACTLY what we’ll see more of by cocky millennials dumping money into something they don’t understand, and without any contingency plan or risk management strategy:
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Check out this post from a crypto traders feed (Steven Nguyen) and his issue with the system being down while his margin was getting called.
Surprise! Welcome to the risks and volatility of trading using margin.
I’m sure we’ll hear about plenty more stories like this from traders using margin to trade the highly volatile cryptos. A SIGN OF THE TIMES……. Seasons Greetings.
Only a greedy moron could be so stupid as to trade a known high volatility object on margin. He’s lucky hhe didn’t lose 100%.
Agreed CFS. +1
Bitcoin Drops as South Korea Says Exchange Closures Are Possible
Cryptocurrency News – 2 hours ago (Dec 28, 2017)
Bitcoin $14563
Ethereum $726
Gold $1295
Silver $16.84
Copper $3.31
Game of Thrones: Libertarian Edition
GLD climbing a Fibonacci arc:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=13&id=p80597343056&a=561270001
Good chart of the arcs with GLD. Like the grooves on vinyl, the hits keep coming….
Fork action (non-log):
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD&p=W&yr=6&mn=0&dy=0&id=p01594236862&a=421374470
An awful lot of bears will be giving up for many weeks to come as they come to their senses one by one…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD&p=W&yr=5&mn=9&dy=0&id=p57892863797&a=521120167
And for those who don’t wear lace undies…
The breakout happened in August; the perfect backtest 18 weeks later:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=W&yr=3&mn=6&dy=9&id=p47217209745&a=563285689
Great moves are on the way:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=W&yr=5&mn=11&dy=0&id=p50002047290&a=543567821
Breakout time for silver:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SILVER&p=W&yr=9&mn=0&dy=0&id=p78716416505&a=557806011
Unintended Consequences?
A central pillar of the massive tax law doubles the standard deduction used by two-thirds of Americans, to $12,000 for individuals and $24,000 for married couples. That means many taxpayers who now itemize deductions will find it’s no longer beneficial for them do so. They’ll find that the deductions they normally take, including for charitable giving, don’t add up to as much as the new standard amount.
UK at Forefront in Technology……
Relies on Solar power for snow removal……
It just waits until things warm up:
London Prices: BID ASK +/- LDN time
GOLD 1,292.45 1,292.75 5.00 11:30
SILVER 16.765 16.785 0.115 11:30
PLATINUM 924.0 929.0 8.0 11:30
PALLADIUM 1,057.0 1,062.0 0.0 11:30
ShanghaI: Gold $1302, Silver $18.00
+18
Lucky 18 in Judaism
Thank goodness for global warming:
What Happens When A Russiagate Skeptic Debates A Professional Russiagater
Have you ever wondered why mainstream media outlets, despite being so fond of dramatic panel debates on other hot-button issues, never have critics of the Russiagate narrative on to debate those who advance it? Well, in a recent Real News interview we received an extremely clear answer to that question, and it was so epic it deserves its own article.
Governments starting to get involved in bitcoin
https://www.bnn.ca/bitcoin-drops-as-south-korea-says-exchange-closures-are-possible-1.953803
Base, battery metals better plays than gold in 2018
Brent Cook on BNN – Wed, Dec 27, 2017
“Brent Cook, exploration analyst with junior mining publication ‘Exploration Insights’, does not dismiss gold investments in 2018, but says the opportunities in base and battery metals look better. He explains why, as well as what he likes about two companies in particular. ”
(Tinka and Advantage Lithium) I’ve been a big fan of (TK) (TKRFF) for the Zinc explorers/developers for some time, but it is nice to hear Brent and Joe covering it to add that awareness factor.
https://www.bnn.ca/video/base-batterymetalsbetterplaysthangoldin2018~1292035