I underestimated the need for sideways consolidation. I suppose a long sideways consolidation is to be expected after dropping 90% from the top.

When we break below the December low, will you at least concede that you have been wrong?

IPT fell 80% not 90% and yes, that is a HUGE difference. The fact that you bring it up is just more evidence that you don’t have a clue about what is important in this game.

Perhaps you’ll concede that you’ve been nothing BUT wrong when it matters.

I absolutely will concede that I have been wrong. And yes, regarding near term lows I have been wrong, but the bearish scenario I laid out over a year ago (miners would touch the lower monthly BB before the upper) is still 100% in play and looks set to occur, which means $19 GDX at a minimum. It could easily go lower at that point though–$17 would be a valid target.

It’s called hard work dumbass. Luck is your game.

Thank you for the ad hominem attack. I intended no insult BTW. You had a sound thesis and you put your money where your mouth is (was). That deserves respect. And you still may be right, but you can understand why I am not too bullish atm hopefully.

How is telling someone they got incredibly lucky when they called something right not an insult????perhaps you’re smoking some funky stuff yourself

Spanky, do you realize that you insult others and constantly taunt their investment theses, yet you get on your high horse when others do it back?

I’m sorry. I don’t mean to come off like that. I really am close to selling the miners and just going all in on the stock bubble in hopes of catching the final blow off. I’ll tell you, if the Dow is up another 500 pts tomorrow and gold and silver are down, it’s going to be really hard to stay in the miners. I’m sure 6 months from now things will look better, but right now I think the risk is for a pretty scary breakdown, which should flush nearly everyone who has held on for the last year out. That’s how the next bull move in the sector will get its energy. I have a feeling the feeling of losing while the stock market soars is going to become absolutely unbearable over the next few months. More power to you if you can look the other way.

I bought with both hands yesterday and today….and if she stays again…..ill buy again. Oh and 80 percent drop looks attractive to me, it’s 80 percent cheaper! Hey Mathew I hope you don’t mind I’m on your shirt tales 😉

spanky if you have any conviction to what you post constantly about the imminent decline in the miners, (with a particular bent against silver miners), then you really should sell them all.

You can buy the stock market that you profess to believing will double in 6 months. If you really believe that, then it makes no sense that you wouldn’t do this.

That is only if you actually believe what you spend all day posting about day after day. It’s called being congruent.

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I’m not sure why you didn’t trim off some of the winnings in those Silver stocks back in the epic run into July/August of 2016, as both EXK and AG went on terrific moves higher. Why did you just watch them go up and then sit on them all the way down without taking any action?

Then there were a number of other buying opportunities and tradable rallies along the way where you could have recovered your losses. Didn’t you add anything during the pullbacks or trim anything when the stocks had 1-3 month rallies?

For example, the Q1Run from late Dec 2016 into Feb of 2017 was a great rally. Did you catch any of that? If so you should have been able to lower your cost basis in a meaningful way (even if you bought at the exact top).

We also discussed at length last year the seasonality of positioning in July/August during the Summer Doldrums and then riding the miners up into the strong period in September. Did you take advantage of that opportunity, because it was a great tradable rally.

* Again, you said you bought in December by the FOMC rate hike right? Didn’t you trim a little off when the metals and miners rallied for 5 weeks in row? If you really did buy then and didn’t shave off some of the profits then that is silly.

Goodness gracious there were plenty of opportunities to lower your cost basis, especially as someone that claims to follow the charts. In all your posts, I don’t see you ever acknowledge all the tradable rallies that were available to all traders.
Instead you only present the worst case possible of buying at the very top and then riding it all the way down. Who would just sit on a losing position without taking some action for 19 months straight?

spany – when you discuss IPT (which is almost daily, and very odd since I don’t believe you even have a position in it) you start from the position of the fall from the very top in 2016 all the way down. Once again, worst case scenario.

Very few are buying any stock at a top, and most of the investors on here that hold IPT positioned at far lower prices in 2016 or snagged more shares at intermediate lows in 2017 and lightened up some on rallies.

There is no debate that IPT (like most silver stocks) has pulled back a great deal from it’s 2016 high to December of 2017, but that has nothing to do with the real world profits or losses that traders may have experienced.

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The other fallacy you are making is assuming none of the contributors here on the KER have any money in other markets outside of the resource sector. There are plenty of people on this site that discuss other markets other than the PMs, people have exposure to the general stocks markets or currencies or bonds or real estate.

Personally I have plenty of exposure to the general stock indexes in both the US and in Emerging markets, and if they keep rocketing higher, then I’ll laugh all the way to the bank.

In my trading account it is mostly focused on the resource and energy space, but I’m diversified across a number commodities and energy subsectors.

Look – people are always going to need stuff, and they are going to need ways to power all their stuff, so neither sector is going away. If you want to trash on the GCC or CRB indexes then fine, but if you were truly objective you’d have to see that relative to other asset classes they are deeply discounted and have far more upside than downside over the next few years.

If you don’t like the resource sector, then you would probably be much better off just buying Amazon that you discuss almost every other day. Just sell Endeavour Silver and First Majestic and be done with it and grab a boatload of AMZN. You’d be much happier, and wouldn’t have to discuss the utter trash that is the silver miners any more.

I hope you find peace through sector rotation, and maybe you’ll give us a bit a peace as well.

Scary thinking, Spanky, to try to catch the blow-off of a bubble…If you knew how to trade, your odds would be a lot better of pulling it off…

You seem to have the impatience of a shorter-term trader. Maybe you should learn to swing trade?

Many have long-term buy and hold positions, as well as short term trading positions to keep them occupied and satisfy the buy and sell itch.

If you can’t do a long-term buy and hold, you’re over-invested.

It’s hard to know where you’re at in the market cycle until you’ve been through a full cycle. Until you get that orientation, you’ll be insecure in your position. Meanwhile, as the saying goes, ‘do your learning with small money’.

Aside from TA or fundamental and sentiment analysis, there is a whole other side to investing/speculating/trading, and that is risk- and money management.

e.g.

http://stockcharts.com/articles/journal/toc.html#chapter-5390fb70e4b026358be52dc9

There’s any number of ways to skin the market cat.

I think, quite clearly, Excelsior and Matthew have found some tools for doing it that work for them, and can be useful for others.

If what these guys say isn’t working for you, it’s not because it’s wrong, but likely because you’re not applying it in a way that works for your own particular situation—-age, dependents, cash flow needs, temperament, etc.

Solid points GH. Hopefully people will take the ideas shared and find out a process that works for them.

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