David Erfle - Gold Market Commentary – Tue 6 Feb, 2018

The Reaction Of Metals and Metals Stocks To Market Volatility

David Erfle, The Junior miner Junky shares his thoughts on the selloff in the metals and metals stocks in the face of the US equity market volatility. The stocks are outperforming to the downside while gold is remaining relatively steady considering the big drops we saw in other markets. We also look at a couple PM stocks that have held up pretty well over the last week.

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  1. On February 6, 2018 at 11:20 am,
    russell s hamilton says:

    I am into gold and silver stocks including HL and GG . they all mine copper as well which is up. Gold has reacted poorly to the current crisis . looks very likely [ 90% ] that USA will go into gov shut down again and not just for 3 days . i expect a 2 week shutdawn as the current split in both parties means no compromise on any thing . ONLY PAIN will make for a compromise snd its comming, but the fight will make market go down again. I just bought GSK cheap , but just resold it after one day for a quick 1% profit . i think i can rebuy it nex week 3 or 4 % cheaper. This was to be a long term hold. Pray for sanity . S

  2. On February 6, 2018 at 11:26 am,
    bonzo barzini says:

    Matthew, Erfle loves USAS. Glad I listened to you and bought it @ 2.61.
    What do you think of DGMLF?

    • On February 6, 2018 at 11:44 am,
      Matthew says:

      I don’t know that one but it is finding some support at the 200 day MA.
      All I can say with any certainty is that it is three times more attractive now than it was at the November high.
      It has retraced more than 75% of its move but does not look like it will take off to the upside soon. But take that with a grain of salt since I don’t know the story.


      • On February 7, 2018 at 4:58 am,
        Excelsior says:

        De Grey Mining is one of the “Pilbara Sisters” near Novo Resources, like Artemis, Kairos, Impact Minerals, Pioneer, etc….

        I still have a small position in (KAI.AX) Kairos Minerals for the Pilbara exposure, but also because I believe their Lithium project will get more attention moving forward due to it’s proximity to Pilbara Resources and Altura Mining.

        (KAI.AX) Kairos Minerals Lithium Project details:

        “The Mt York Project adjoins both Pilbara Minerals (ASX:PLS) world class lithium & tantalum project (80.2Mt @ 1.26% Li2O including 42.3Mt @0.02% Ta2O5) and Altura Mining’s (ASX:AJM) lithium deposit (35.7Mt @ 1.05% Li2O).”


        • On February 7, 2018 at 5:01 am,
          Excelsior says:

          BTW – Many of the Lithium stocks (Galaxy Resources, Nemaska Lithium, Lithium Americas, Orocobre, Neometals etc….) had an epic run from 2015 – 2017. However in late 2017 to present most of them have rolled over about 30-50%. Now is a good time to start looking at the quality Lithium producers and developers mentioned there.

          Pilbara was a bit late to the Lithium party but finally took off last year. I sold out on that rally, but just started adding to my PLS.AX position again yesterday and will do so on any further weakness. They are one of the most solid LI projects on the market today:

          $PLS.AX $PILBF Pilbara Minerals – #CorporatePresenation – Jan 2018


    • On February 7, 2018 at 4:51 am,
      Excelsior says:

      I also love USAS Americas Silver and have been trading it for years. They have one of the best turnaround stories I’ve seen from late 2015 to present, and they are now a Silver/Zinc/Lead juggernaut and will have some of the lowest costs in the industry by the end of this year (only surpassed in low AISC by Silvercorp SVM who actually has negative AISC now).

      USAS will be dropping their AISC down from $10 to around $3-$4 per ounce of Silver Equivalent (factoring in their Zinc & Lead credits). by the 3rd or 4th quarter.

      When people ring their hands about $16-$17 Silver, they just aren’t thinking it through carefully. Even Avino Silver & Gold (ASM) and Excellon (EXN) have an AISC around $9-$10 an ounce.

      These companies will do just fine if Silver stays in the $16-$17 range or even if it went down to $12. However, if Silver prices get back up above $18+ (which they will by year end) then these companies are going to be cash-flow machines.

      • On February 7, 2018 at 5:36 am,
        Excelsior says:

        (USAS) (USA) Americas Silver Corp – Corporate Presentation – January 2018


        • On February 7, 2018 at 5:41 am,
          Excelsior says:

          Silver 2.1 Moz – 2017 actual

          Silver 1.6 – 2.0 Moz – 2018 projection

          Silver Equivalent 4.7 Moz – 2017 actual

          Silver Equivalent – 7.2 – 8.0 Moz – 2018 projected (that huge increase in Zinc & Lead production is from San Rafael)

          Silver Cash Costs $9.36 per oz – 2017 Actual

          Silver Cast Costs – ($5 – $10) per oz – 2018 projected [those are negative cash costs]

          Silver AISC $13.11 per oz – 2017 actual

          Silver AISC ($1) – $4 per oz – 2018 projected (again negative – $1 to $4 is very low)

          *** as a reminder Silver is at $16.50 at present, so how do you think USAS is going to do with an an AISC of -$1 to $4 ?? 🙂 😉

          • On February 7, 2018 at 5:50 am,
            Excelsior says:

            When professional analysts ever wake up to these changed AISC and negative cash costs for Americas Silver, then this stock is going to get a major rerating when larger institutional funds pour into later this year. It could be an easy 3-5 bagger from here.

            I’m not sure why investors (retail or institutional) would want to get into huge laggards like Tahoe, Fresnillo, Pan American, SSR, or even First Majestic that have costs around $10-$12 when the could be in Silvercorp (SVM) with an AISC of $3-$4 and negative cash costs, or Americas Silver (USAS) with an AISC of -$1 – $4.

            Again, even Excellon (EXN) is going to be dropping their AISC down to $9 this year.

            Seem like a no-brainer where the deep value is in Silver/Zinc/Lead producers.

          • On February 7, 2018 at 5:54 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Do investors want a Silver producer that is treading water, or do they want a Silver producer that is going to be cash-flowing in 2018?

            Then again, some of the smaller Jr Silver producers will have nice optionality and leverage to rising silver prices like IPT, SCZ, ASM, BHS, GPL, etc…

            Regardless – investor have clamored on for year about wanting mining companies to make money and produce free cash flows……. Well Silvercorp and Americas Silver are about to do just that in 2018, especially towards the 2nd half of the year.

          • On February 7, 2018 at 6:09 am,
            Excelsior says:

            January 29, 2018


  3. On February 6, 2018 at 1:01 pm,
    bonzo barzini says:

    Thanks, Matthew. I bought some@.09 yesterday. It’s a Pilbara play like Novo.

    • On February 6, 2018 at 1:44 pm,
      CFS says:

      2018-02-06 10:15 ET – News Release

      Mr. Quinton Hennigh reports


  4. On February 6, 2018 at 1:39 pm,
    CFS says:

    Osisko Gold buys 6.65% of Algold for $1.99-million

    2018-02-06 16:11 ET – News Release

    Also News Release (C-ALG) Algold Resources Ltd

    Mr. Vincent Metcalfe of Osisko reports


    Osisko Gold Royalties Ltd. has subscribed for and received from Algold Resources Ltd. 14,285,714 units of Algold at a price of 14 cents per unit by way of a private placement of Algold, for an aggregate subscription price of $1,999,999.96.

  5. On February 6, 2018 at 1:41 pm,
    CFS says:

    Fireweed Zinc halted at 12:32 p.m. PT

    pending announcement

  6. On February 6, 2018 at 5:08 pm,
    Matthew says:

    The Dow transportation index was able to close above an old fork support/resistance line but let’s see if it can close the week there. I still doubt it…


  7. On February 6, 2018 at 5:39 pm,
    Bill says:

    I believed I called it!! ….I said we need a flash mini crash. Got it. Cash is/was king and now shopping but need stabilization then on and upward. Still doubtful of a commodities bull.
    I have 95% cash and was I think a great call…
    DOWs going higher….Im with MA….. eventually stock market and gold will go up together as Gov BONDs pooh the bed.
    Good luck.

  8. On February 6, 2018 at 5:48 pm,
    Bill says:

    Sorry but Gold bugs like Schiff, Bob M, Mike Maloney piles of others are clueless. Golds not fire insurance….heard that years ago from all the clowns. I could go on what IS fire insurance but back to chilling.
    Mike had it RIGHT http://www.avaresearch.com/

  9. On February 6, 2018 at 6:19 pm,
    Buzz says:

    Hey! Somebody spiked the punch bowl!

  10. On February 6, 2018 at 6:25 pm,
    Markedtofuture says:

    After House GOP Memo, FBI OKs Release of Unclassified Steele Referral

    UPDATE | Feb. 06, 2018: Following Senator Grassley’s request of 02/02/2018, the FBI today removed a number of redactions from the Steele referral referenced below. The less-redacted version released today is available HERE.


  11. On February 6, 2018 at 7:06 pm,
    Markedtofuture says:

    Hannity: Breaking down the Grassley-Graham memo
    Feb. 06, 2018 – 17:58 – The entire bulk of the FISA application came from the dossier.


    • On February 7, 2018 at 6:14 am,
      Markedtofuture says:

      Their fee based ponzi has some competition.

      Stellar | Move Money Across Borders Quickly, Reliably, And For Fractions Of A Penny. Stellar is a platform that connects banks, payments systems, and people. Integrate to move money quickly, reliably, and at almost no cost.


  12. On February 7, 2018 at 5:50 am,
    Tomjoe says:

    USAS held back by marginal Idaho operations at Galena…Pending labour contract at that property…

  13. On February 7, 2018 at 6:06 am,
    Markedtofuture says:

    FBI lovers’ latest text messages:Obama ‘wants to know everything

    Newly revealed text messages between FBI paramours Peter Strzok and Lisa Page include an exchange about preparing talking points for then-FBI Director James Comey to give to President Obama, who wanted “to know everything we’re doing.”

    The message, from Page to Strzok, was among thousands of texts between the lovers reviewed by Fox News. The pair both worked at one point for Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s probe of alleged collusion between the Trump campaign and Russia.

    Page wrote to Strzok on Sept. 2, 2016, about prepping Comey because “potus wants to know everything we’re doing.” According to a newly released Senate report, this text raises questions about Obama’s personal involvement in the Clinton email investigation.


  14. On February 7, 2018 at 6:13 am,
    Excelsior says:

    Congo Seeks More Control of the Cobalt Market
    Thomas Wilson – February 5, 2018

    “The Democratic Republic of Congo will seek greater control of the global cobalt market by engaging directly with car and battery manufacturers, according to its largest state-owned mining company.”

    “I find it scandalous that when cobalt is discussed, and the explosion of electric vehicles, only the traders and consumers are referenced and Congo and Gecamines are not cited,” Gecamines Chairman Albert Yuma said in an interview in Cape Town.

    “The market seems to think that “the future of cobalt is in the hands of Glencore, Trafigura and CMOC but not the Congo or Gecamines,” Yuma said. “We legitimately want to control the cobalt market because it is ours.”


    • On February 7, 2018 at 6:17 am,
      Excelsior says:

      For this reason alone I wouldn’t touch any Cobalt producers or developers in the “Democratic” Republic of Congo with a barge pole. They are making the lives of miners terrible in the DRC and just raised taxes on miners to stick it to them again. What a train-wreck of a country…..

      There are emerging Cobalt plays in Canada, Australia, and Europe that other manufacturers are going to want to set up off-take agreements with, but most of them are just rebooted Copper, Nickel, or Silver deposits that now are economic due to the Cobalt credits. The few quality companies that get their act together in the next year or so could still offer very nice upside as the industry tries to steer clear of the Congo moving forward.

  15. On February 7, 2018 at 6:37 am,
    Excelsior says:

    Silicon Valley Legend Tim Draper: Bitcoin And Crypto Will Take Over The World
    FEB 7, 2018 – Forbes


    • On February 7, 2018 at 6:40 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Cryptocurrency market could hit $1 trillion this year with bitcoin surging to $50,000, experts say
      Arjun Kharpal – 5 Hours Ago

      > Cryptocurrencies could go on a bull run greater than last year and pass the trillion-dollar value mark, Jamie Burke, CEO at Outlier Ventures said.
      > Technological advancements and new investor products could push bitcoin to $50,000 in 2018, Thomas Glucksmann of Gatecoin told CNBC.
      > Investors may focus on so-called “utility tokens” this year which are digital coins that can power blockchain technologies, according to one expert.


      • On February 7, 2018 at 6:43 am,
        Excelsior says:

        ….and thus the NEXT Bitcoin and Cryptocurrency Bubble is being blown.

        reinflate…… reinflate……reinflate…..

        Bitcoin is up nicely over $8,000 today. Everybody jumped back in yesterday for the next rise…….

        • On February 7, 2018 at 6:44 am,
          Excelsior says:

          Bitcoin’s ‘many problems’ puzzle regulators
          by Nathaniel Meyersohn – February 6, 2018


          • On February 7, 2018 at 6:46 am,
            Excelsior says:

            New Regulation for Crypto? Senate Hearing Sees Debate

            Pete Rizzo & Stan Higgins – Feb 6, 2018

            “”We may be back with our friends from the U.S. Treasury and the Fed to ask for additional legislation.”

            “So said Jay Clayton, the chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, at a U.S. Senate hearing on cryptocurrencies today, responding to one of several questions about whether his agency has enough authority over the cryptocurrency market.”

            “The meeting of the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs, which kicked off on 10 a.m. Tuesday, however, saw participation from another notable regulator as well, U.S. Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) chair J. Christopher Giancarlo, who also addressed the topic in remarks.”

            “That said, both Clayton and Giancarlo indicated that such a move may not be immediately required, even despite growing concerns about the state of the technology and the potential harm that may come to under-educated U.S. consumers who participate.”

            “I can’t give a definitive answer,” Clayton said when pressed directly.


          • On February 7, 2018 at 6:47 am,
            Excelsior says:

            UAE Issues Warning On ICOs, Says Investors Should Assume Full Risk
            By Helen Partz – 22 hours ago


          • On February 7, 2018 at 6:50 am,
            Excelsior says:

            General Manager of BIS Wants To Prevent Crypto From Joining ‘Main Financial System’
            By Molly Jane Zuckerman

            “Augustín Carstens, the general manager of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), called Bitcoin a “combination of a bubble, a Ponzi scheme and an environmental disaster” and asked central banks to more closely regulate cryptocurrencies during a speech at Goethe University on Feb. 6.”

            “BIS is known as the “bank for central banks,” for it only provides banking services to central banks and other international organizations.”

            “In August 2017, when Carstens was the head of the central Bank of Mexico, he argued that Bitcoin is not a currency but a commodity and warned against its potential use for cybercrime.”

            “If authorities do not act pre-emptively, cryptocurrencies could become more interconnected with the main financial system and become a threat to financial stability.”


          • On February 7, 2018 at 9:24 am,
            b says:


            Russia wants governments to work together concerning crypto.
            Says its a global issue.

            Russia has already created a crypto ruble.

            Any chance the bis is simply fighting Russia?

  16. On February 7, 2018 at 6:47 am,
    Matthew says:

    This looks like a perfect place for a bottom. GDXJ is up over 50 cents after hitting fork support a few minutes ago:


    • On February 7, 2018 at 6:55 am,
      Matthew says:

      Now it needs to get above the Fibonacci arc that has capped it for the last few days.

      2 hour chart:


    • On February 7, 2018 at 7:10 am,
      Matthew says:

      Priced in gold/GLD, it reversed from a much larger fork support after making a new 22 month low:


    • On February 7, 2018 at 9:19 am,
      b says:

      I dont know what your 6.47 am time is.
      But on my screen gold is coming down.

      • On February 7, 2018 at 10:33 am,
        Matthew says:

        Your post was 2.5 hours after mine.
        Still looks like a low happening. GDXJ made it all the way back to the low I mentioned above (after rising 79 cents) and even went 3 cents lower, but is again trying to rise while Dow and S&P are trying to fall.

        • On February 7, 2018 at 11:06 am,
          b says:

          Well, at this point gold is 1313, it better turn around soon, if it breaks 1300……….

          • On February 7, 2018 at 11:42 am,
            Matthew says:

            It can go well below 1300 without causing a technical problem but I don’t think it will. But if it does, it would be nice if it would happen very quickly in a scary plunge followed by a quick reversal to avoid turning the weekly chart oscillators against us for awhile.

          • On February 7, 2018 at 11:52 am,
            Excelsior says:

            I agree Matthew. Really as long as Gold doesn’t break below the last higher low of $1238.30 then we are still in an uptrend.

            Really, it would be more bullish to stay above the congestion zone at $1280 and the 233 day EMA is at $1281.13 presently so that area should offer good support if gold does dip below $1300.


          • On February 7, 2018 at 12:21 pm,
            Matthew says:

            No doubt it would be best if it bottomed today.

  17. On February 7, 2018 at 7:08 am,
    Excelsior says:

    Silver lagged in 2017, may outperform in 2018, but beware of market volatility

    by Samson Li – 3rd January, 2018

    “It is fair to say that 2017 caught the investment community by surprise. In a year in which the Federal Reserve continued its interest rate normalisation programme, including details on reducing the balance sheet, yet the dollar fell off a cliff during the year. Commodities, especially copper, offered investors a lucrative return that even outperformed the U.S. equities market. Silver, generally regarded as the leveraged version of gold in commodities trading, disappointed the market somewhat in 2017, underperforming its rich cousin by 600 basis points. However, the best is yet to come in 2018, and we also suggest that a possible financial crisis may be looming.”


    • On February 7, 2018 at 7:13 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Gold Demand in China: A Tough 2018 in Store

      Samson Li, Senior Precious Metals Analyst, Thomson Reuters GFMS

      “China’s total gold demand was 927 tonnes in 2017, a 4.4 per cent decline from 2016 levels, according to our initial estimates. Meanwhile, the country’s mine production is expected to fall by approximately 10 per cent in 2017, mainly due to environment crackdowns which resulted in a fall in production from domestic smelter production.”

      “Demand continues to fall after the 2013 peak”


      • On February 7, 2018 at 9:17 am,
        b says:

        Dont see that as a big deal, demand has fallen everywhere since 2013.

        Except for a couple govs.

        • On February 7, 2018 at 10:21 am,
          Excelsior says:

          Yeah, I don’t think that is a surprise that demand for physical was falling, but have a lot of respect for Samson and he has a good handle on what China is doing (as much as one can have a handle on China’s numbers) so I felt his article was worth sharing nonetheless….)

          The real driver has been and will stay the futures pricing, London Fix, the Shanghai fix, and investment demand in ETFs. One day…… the physical demand will swamp the paper market, but people have been waiting on that day for decades now….

          • On February 7, 2018 at 11:14 am,
            b says:

            Thats only a maybe Ex.
            Logically thats what should happen, but tptb understand that a gold price of 10k puts bread at what? $20-$50 a loaf?
            There would be a world wide revolt, whats the chance of 10k gold?

          • On February 7, 2018 at 11:47 am,
            Excelsior says:

            I didn’t say anything about $10K gold in that post above, so I’m not sure what you are talking about b ??

            I said the real price driver was and still is the paper markets, and that one day the physical demand may swamp the paper markets, but that day hasn’t come in the last 2 decades.

            Where does anything there talk about $10K gold ?

            I’d be thrilled if Gold would just get above the $1377.50 high from 2016 for starters (lol)

          • On February 7, 2018 at 12:41 pm,
            b says:

            using 10k as that seems to be the # so many talk about.
            not that you mentioned it.

            i was trying to put such increases in perspective.

          • On February 7, 2018 at 12:43 pm,
            b says:

            other point is phyzz determining price is just a maybe at this point.
            maybe when the chinese and russian moves take effect.

          • On February 7, 2018 at 12:51 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            OK. I just wasn’t following the $10K Gold thing, as that wasn’t what I meant.

            I meant if the mine supply decreases and the floating gold that can actually be traded (not Gold in deep storage locked away in vaults that won’t see the light of day) can’t supply the ETF demands then physical would cause the price to rise more than the paper pricing.

            To be clear I am not expecting that and like I said people have been waiting on that day for decades so it is worse than a “maybe” and is more of “not very likely anytime in the foreseeable future”.

          • On February 7, 2018 at 1:37 pm,
            b says:

            Well then, that sounds like we 100% agree on sumtin. lol

          • On February 7, 2018 at 1:43 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            haha! well there ya go….

  18. On February 7, 2018 at 7:37 am,
    Excelsior says:

    (ANX) (ANXGD) Anaconda Mining Intersects 34.70 G/T Gold over 3.5 Metres and 24.34 G/T Gold Over 3.8 Metres at Goldboro; Expands Mineralization Beyond Existing Resource
    Feb. 7, 2018 /CNW

    Highlights from this drill program include multiple occurrences of visible gold, and assays of high-grade tenor including the following:

    34.70 g/t gold over 3.5 metres (82.0 to 85.5 metres) in hole BR-17-09;
    24.34 g/t gold over 3.8 metres (389.9 to 393.7 metres) in hole BR-17-06;
    9.12 g/t gold over 3.2 metres (293.8 to 2.97 metres) in hole BR-17-08;
    31.56 g/t gold over 1.0 metre (259.0 to 260.0 metres) in hole BR-17-08;
    59.97 g/t gold over 0.5 metres (272.7 to 273.2 metres) in hole BR-17-06; and
    17.68 g/t gold over 0.5 metres (69.6 to 70.1 metres) in hole BR-17-10.


    • On February 7, 2018 at 7:44 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Looks like ANX is executing on the high grade thesis at Goldboro. Darn good results.

      • On February 7, 2018 at 9:14 am,
        b says:

        Do look good.

        Ive done no DD on these guys,having said that, price isnt going anywhere.
        Just doesnt look like too many people are interested in gold or miners.
        Price dropping today again.

        Maybe bounce @ 1300? maybe sooner, if not it looks to me its really gonna tank.
        Money back into pot and bitcoin and market I think.

        • On February 7, 2018 at 10:08 am,
          Excelsior says:

          Gold & Silver and many miners have been under pressure, but ANX is still up 6% on the news and it was up 10% earlier today. The market has been rewarding exploration success on the smaller companies, just not on the larger producers.

          Here is the Chart for ANX over the last few months, and it has had a bit of interest starting to grow from resource investors:


          • On February 7, 2018 at 10:37 am,
            b says:

            “under pressure” is one way to put it.
            I havnt followed too close but it looks to me since the 10-1? deal?
            It had a small expected bounce and came back down.

            Too much money elsewhere I think, bitcoin market and pot up today and yesterday.
            My potshares are up 20% since the drop.
            Anyone that took profits and put the “bid of stink” in made coin…..again.

            Far more interesting than PMs, can ya blame anyone for not being too interested in PMs?

            Im sure when PMs start to move anx will be among the movers, but which ones wont?
            Anything that survived should move.

            I think I mentioned that way back when we got that spike.
            Same thing will happen again.

            My opinion hasnt really changed, ya wanna know which under 5 cent shares to own.
            up from 1/2 cent now.

          • On February 7, 2018 at 11:36 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Actually most of the spike up in ANX happened before the reverse split, due to their solid newsflow, and coverage from Peter “Newton” Bell from ceo.ca, Brian Leni from Junior Stock review, the editorials from Bob M., and even coverage here on the KER as Cory had interviewed their ceo Dustin on here at the request of Mickey Mantle (another great contributor here and at ceo.ca).

            ANX doubled jn share price before the split even happened.

            It was after the reverse split that it has fallen back some (which is quite normal), but then Gold started pulling back in late January which pressured the whole sector.

            > Now, as to the rising tide lifting all boats concept, yes to a degree, but the high performers are still the most leveraged companies to rising metals prices, the ones with the best exploration results, and the ones with the best production/cost improvements if they are producers or a developer getting ready to go into production. For example the smaller Jr Silver stocks we often discuss on here really outperformed most of the larger Gold or Silver companies by a landslide in the first half of 2016’s big rally, and last year in the Q1 run, and many of them just coming out that Dec 13, 2017 low and recent rally for 5 weeks, before things started correcting.

            I’d rather have the Alpha plays that outperform the masses, otherwise there is no sense in picking stocks and it would be better to just by an ETF and call it day. Most of the stocks we discuss will outperform an ETF to the upside and down side.

          • On February 7, 2018 at 11:58 am,
            b says:

            At the time of the article I mentioned marketing causes moves,
            meaning of course a bounce could be caught.

            I watched from the split, it went to 47 now back to 40.5 on my list.

            We went over this high tide raises all boats buy the best companies etc awhile back.

            I said (if you recall) the entire kitco list could be bought, and you will make coin, no thinking required, which was correct.

            I also said, find a 1/2 cent share, now you guys argued drill results management etc etc, all logical,what happened?
            My 1/2 share blew away everything you guys found…..everything, Mat found one that did 50-75% of what I did? something like that.

            The only thing required was to know the liquidity, once ya bought all the shares that could be traded with one click ya had to find another etc etc.

            When the market levels off returns to some kind of normal, then all the DD is gonna matter big time, but when it moves parabolic like? not required.

            imo anyway, and I was proven correct last time, and the move to golds high as well actually.

            In any case, everyone will make money so everything is good, if the neocons dont get us nuked, they dont shut down the markets, nationalize the mines, brokers dont steal the accounts, management dont steal the funds etc etc. lol

            So dont worry, be happy.

          • On February 7, 2018 at 12:23 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            b – I don’t think you understood what I posted:

            1) there were about a dozen articles out for ANX for several months before the reverse split and I was personally invested in it since June of 2017 and sold a portion in January before the split for a double.

            I’m quite aware of what happened in this stock and have skin in the game, and been adding more this week based on some private discussions I’ve been having.

            I’m not sure what article you mean, but I’m sure there were some that came out after the split too. That wasn’t the point. The point was that ANX doubled (up 100%) on good news in , when most stocks (including the Kitco list) only went up 20-50% on the rally out of December into January. It is and will always be a stock pickers market.

            2) The Jr Miners we were discussing destroyed the Kitco list and most of the Silver stocks we held were up 500-1000% while the larger gold and silver miners on the commonly shared ETFs and Indexes were up 100-300%.

            3) You keep banging the drum on that one stock you had that was up 2,000% but I doubt you had a concentrated position in it and you didn’t have the higher performer.

            *** MXSG was the highest performing stock of 2016 by far and at one point was up 14,000% . (that is not a type-o). I personally had a 56 bagger on my position but it was not a large position for me either. Still I’d say 5,600% was more than your 2,000% return that keep bringing up. The reason for the rise in MXSG Mexus was due to news & the fundamental story improving, not marketing, (as they are actually terrible at marketing themselves).

            The point that I’ve made ever time you bring up this Kitco list business and liquidity is that YES, all boat will rise on the tide, but the best companies will crush the rest. I posted dozens of charts in the summer of 2016 proving this to you beyond a shadow of a doubt, but apparently you have amnesia.

            Go back and look at the charts in July & August of 2016 that I posted where I contrasted those stocks against the HUI, XAU, and GDX, GDXJ. The reason companies are on the “kitco list” in the first place is because they are part of those indexes. That’s how they get included.

            4) I’ll say it one more time, if people’s portfolio can’t beat the Indexes and ETFs then they should NOT be investing in individual stocks and should just buy the ETFs and set it and forget it.

            That doesn’t mean that every stock has to beat the index or ETFs, but an investor should have more stocks that outperform so that cumulatively their portfolio grows by a higher percentage.

            I have no idea if that is what you experienced, but I know that is what Matthew and I experienced, and we posted the names of the companies we were investing in during tax loss Dec 2015 though Feb 2016 and anyone that can pull up a chart can see how well Amercias Silver, Silvercorp, Alexco, Impact Silver, Silvercrest, Excellon, Brixton, Orex, Avino, Jaguar, Argonaut, etc… did since the major low in miners in Jan 2016 to that summer.

            FYI – they crushed the kitco list.

          • On February 7, 2018 at 12:51 pm,
            Wolfster says:

            Can’t argue the pot plays. I played ACB twice on bottom fishing and got lucky. That and my small cap fav v.rht…but still hitting the miners with profits and playing evrim and sama as they start to get attention

          • On February 7, 2018 at 1:07 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Here is the chart for Mexus Gold from 2016. The low was actually $.0015 not $.002, and the high was $.235, so that would have been a been a 15,567% rally from low to high in 2016. I’m not aware of any mining stock or Pot stock that beat MXSG in 2016 or 2017.

            Personally I didn’t get positioned until $.0035 and sold a lot around $.18-$.20 for a 50 to 56 bagger. The rest of the position is obviously still a free ride position 🙂


          • On February 7, 2018 at 1:10 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            I am adding to MXSG again down at these levels though, as they are getting ready to start posting more about their commercial production, which took them all of 2017 to get sorted out with the 1 and now 2 Merrill-Crowe processing plants.

          • On February 7, 2018 at 1:12 pm,
            b says:

            i do understand what your saying ex, maybe you dont understand me?

            svm for example, i agree…big time at 60 cents i mentioned to my family.
            ipt @ 11 was not for them.

            But they are kinda happy with svm today.
            I did not buy svm.

            I am not investing…I am gambling….I bought at .005 cents, sold at .12 out of gold from there and into pot..as I stated at the time. No offence, but not my fault you guys didnt get it, my potshares went from .50 to 4.00 I sold, they sold off, I rebought at 2.00, from there mentioned repeatedly pot is not a bad place to be while waiting for gold.
            My 2.00 shares spiked to 15.00.

            I am not saying a well run company wont make money, Im gambling and I want return when I roll the dice. Pot tho was a no brainer.

            Now as I said the other day, cash might be wise,.

            When/if PMs actually move, the people, the people that havnt got a clue as to whats going on will buy.

            You think they know enough to check out infrastructure or if its heap leach etc?
            Not a chance my friend.

            Yes institutional money will move in, but remember my phot shares I mentioned long ago?
            What they do? 50k times? something like that, and it had nothing to do with managment other than they were astute enough to call it phot.

            Just as putting blockchain in a name made the prices jump, there is so much money out there reality doesnt matter like it once did.

            good grief, look at bitcoin.
            Anything with gold in the name will do just fine, until we get to some reality.

            On the other hand, you are 100% correct and I agree 100%
            If that makes any sense.

            But I have been proven 100% correct too.

          • On February 7, 2018 at 1:29 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Well I hear what you are saying about mania sectors like the Pots, Blockchain, and even certain exploration stocks in Gold & Silver.

            Last year we saw it with GT Gold, Novo Resources, Garibaldi, West High Yield, Aurion, and New Nadina. Many of those went up 900 – 4000% percent on pure speculative hype, and I agree that most investors didn’t really to thorough due diligence on them, but just jumped on the FOMO and MOMO trains.

            I also agree with you that the Pot stocks had an epic run and many of them were up a few thousand percent as well. Yes, we saw this in the cryptos and blockchain last year as well, where the hype caused the spike.

            However, in the Jr miners I don’t expect we’ll see that level of hype or speculation across the whole sector, and so if one really wants the largest percent returns, then those are normally found on the Explorers (if they hit pay dirt or have a compelling narrative).

            However the Kitco list is not comprised of Explorers, but rather the larger Mid-tier and Majors with a few of the larger developers peppered in. They cull their list from the XAU, HUI Indexes, and the basket of stocks included in the GDX and GDXJ.

            Most of those stocks are large and clunky there is no way the Tahoe or the Fresnillos are going to keep pace with Impact Silver or Alexcos when things turn back up in the Silver miners for the next leg.

            That is why I recommend selecting or picking stocks with both the fundamental or technical backdrop to outperform.

            In my example of MXSG above that went up 15,000% from trough to peak in 2016, it was a news release that caused me to take notice and take a position, not just throwing a dart at a hot sector. There is a reason I select every stock in my portfolio above others, and in each case the strategy is for out-performance on either a short-term swing trade, or a medium term rally.

            It was the same for the Lithium stocks I was discussing in late 2015 and 2016 that ended up going up 900-3000% into 2016-2017. All of them were culled from the herd for fundamental reason, and most outperformed the ETF LIT by a landslide.

            That is my only point, that by being selective one can outperform the ETFs or Indexes. If one is just going to ride the tide up then an ETF requires no homework, no news, and minimal TA to find an entry point.

            Personally I wouldn’t go to all the work I do if I just expected the same results as an ETF though.

          • On February 7, 2018 at 1:40 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            b – If I’m understanding your point correctly then I believe you are saying the marketing promotion and investor frenzy is the determining factor on the out-performance more so than the fundamental or technical data, and that is a good point if investors get in really early to a story.

            There are investors over at ceo.ca that only follow the promotional stories and marketing pushed stocks and they do make a killing riding up the pump-n-dumps.

            Maybe that is a better concept, but deep down I really am trying to spot unnoticed value, more so than a narrative or story. However, I could be working way harder than I need to, so maybe it would be easier to just jump on Momo plays. Even with the cryptos & blockchain companies I’ve only grabbed a few in companies that fundamentally made sense to me at some level.

            I want there to be more than just a wild story to jump on a company, because I want something solid underpinning the thesis. Overall I’ve still found a number of high flyers this way, (although admittedly sometimes they require a longer wait before investors & analysts wake up to those reasons).

            I guess I’ll add another criteria : 1) Fundamental Analysis 2) Technical Analysis 3) Promotional Hype analysis 🙂

          • On February 7, 2018 at 1:47 pm,
            b says:

            “However, in the Jr miners I don’t expect we’ll see that level….”

            Thats our dif thinking…I think this next bull is going to be one for the ages.
            Stories will be told, books written,movies made……

            Well, unless, somtin like bitcoin comes along again..cancer cure, space travel……

          • On February 7, 2018 at 1:59 pm,
            b says:

            Just saw your second paragraph, no your not working too hard, more than you might need to, but not too hard.

            You enjoy what your doing and if your making a living at it, until you have enough to quit altogether you would be nuts to change.

            I am throwing dice, if I make a win the money comes off the table, I dont need anything I make and it doesnt matter for diddly if Im wrong.

            Ya gotta stick with what ya know.

            If ya wanna try my thinking, for fun, find the cheapest share ya can, that wont go broke by the time gold moves, ya need enough shares around to show there are enough people interested to make it move.

            I would tell ya the one I like, but if I did its so cheap the people just off this site could make it go ballistic and Im still watching it come down. lol

          • On February 7, 2018 at 9:07 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Interesting discussion b. and thanks for your insights on the matter.

            Well, I do enjoy speculating in very cheap shares, but like we mentioned the other day when the “gambling” discussion came up, I see them as related but slightly different in a few key areas.

            You also raised a good point when bringing up different investors goals for their longer term investment or shorter term trade, their risk tolerance levels, and whether this is money they can afford to lose or a risk/reward play, or money that has to earn value for retirement like annuities or dividend paying defensive stocks.

            Different strokes for different folks, but yeah, I always have a few very speculative high risk / high return trades on, but with a much smaller position size. Many of those that I trade are so small – several pennies to fractions of a penny that I rarely discuss them publicly, and either win bigly or strike out.

            As mentioned above I got in Mexus MXSG when it was $.0035 per share. (lol).

            However, it was the fundamental news of them getting their JV partner lined up with plans to go into production that initially got my attention. I talked to other investors, wrote the company and exchanged a few emails, dove into their website, news, photos, historic resource estimation, etc… and felt comfortable taking on the speculative risk.

            That is different than just thowing money on Red or Black or Even or Odd on roulette. It isn’t an all or nothing one time bet, and I get to keep some value in the shares even if it doesn’t work out as things rarely go to $0 flat, although I have held 2 that were delisted so it is possible.

            There are appropriate risk mitigation strategies that can be deployed though to manage position size, cost basis, using technical analysis for entries and exits, and staying up on major changes with the company.

            To your point, one could just buy into a marketing story, or simply wait for liquidity to flood a sector spiking the price, but I like to know the stocks I hold will at least move when the heat is on. Unfortunately they aren’t all going to be winners.

            One of the points I was trying to illustrate with the chart up above with ANX Anaconda was that I positioned when it roughly $.05 and sold my first tranche when it hit $.10 for an easy double (post split that would be like buying at $.20 and selling at $.40). The reason I bought was after spending hours reading up on the company through a number of articles, their website, looking at old drill data, how they may barge over ore from their other deposits, and I liked that they were already in production.

            I think it was telling that the marketplace has woken up to their story after all the articles, editorials, and different people looking at it and giving it the thumbs up. The fact that the company then executed on its plan and increased production and has been hitting on their drill results as expected, has lended more confidence to the project.

            To me “speculating” on a company like that is much different than getting into a momentum pump or frenzy because there is something real and solid underneath the play. Sure it is still high risk, but there is a method to the madness.

            Anyway, to me doing the research and finding companies that should have leverage, and then seeing that play out is very rewarding as a feedback loop for the mental reward system, but the main reason is for compounding wealth.

            That is a much different strategy than playing craps or roulette, which I’m quite fond of doing BTW. 🙂

          • On February 8, 2018 at 10:47 am,
            b says:


            When you draw to a flush you need to know the odds of making the hand, what odds the pot offers and what the odds of a flush being good enough to win the pot is before you make the bet.

            Meaning, only a putz does not do some investigation before choosing a hand or company he is going to “throw the dice” on.

            A proper DD can take days for me, and that is without visiting the property.

            I am not going to spend my life doing dd on miners.
            I did that years ago and the miners Im gambling on are still here, ( imagine that)lol

            I did a full dd on maybe 20 miners,(did not visit sites) my list is made up of 8 for various reasons, dividends, puny little guy thats huge when gold moves and in between companies I know that move at dif levels of the gold price.

            So now, I have no need to find further miners. I took a shot at novo because life was boring.
            I missed anx, but I havnt been looking, dd on pot shares is kidstuff compared to Jr miners.
            If I was interested in an anx, obviously I would investigate prior to GAMBLING on it. lol

            If I said something like “red or black” its because the WHOLE market is a gamble, which I have said many times, the market is rigged, its crooked, the brokers are criminal, managment of mines are criminal, the banks are criminal…….

            How can putting cash in these markets be anything other than a gamble?
            That aspect is continuously overlooked.

            Return OF money is more important today than return ON money.
            At least to me, I could be 100% wrong of course.
            But that thinking hasnt cost me any money, any more than not buying bitcoin cost money.

            If it was not crooked, I would for sure have alot more in my account than I do now.

            Continueing to invest in a crooked market is like investing in a market that is going parabolic….you know its coming down.

            Lots of ways to play the game.

            As for the kitco list, my point was the list, or any list, could be bought without effort and money would be made, which was 100% true.
            I also said at the time, find a 1/2 cent share, I, believe it or not, went 100% into my pick.
            I saw no reason in putting cash in lesser payoffs.
            I can do that because I know the company and its share holders well.
            I know how they react at gold price changes.

            Another reason I suggested the kitco list was cfs said he was looking for somewhere to park cash, he has lots of cash to park. How was he gonna do a proper dd on enough companies before the gold price moved at that time?

            In that position the only thing that mattered was liquidity.

            Having said that, I dont use an amount of money I needed more places to put cash, it traded 10s of millions of shares per day.

            And when I win, I remove it from my account, so there ya go.

            And yes, good conversation, I understand what your doin and its smart no question.

            Now, figure out the date gold goes parabolic and let us know.
            If ya would, plse and thx.

          • On February 8, 2018 at 4:25 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Thanks for that response back b and thanks for clarifying what you meant, because when you said initially no DD required, then it puzzled me. It sound like you meant you’d already done your DD years ago and felt fine taking the speculative punt, knowing that when liquidity hit, it would spike that particular penny stock.

            Yes for someone like CFS that needed to park money in a number of stocks then the Kitco list will do just fine, and buying the GDX or GDXJ would be the way to play it. My strategy is still to keep overturn the boulders and stones looking for a well kept secret and undervalued / unappreciated Jr companies that have the right ingredients to outperform their peers in a major way.

            >> I’ll keep working on figuring out when gold is going to go parabolic and keep everyone posted. 😉


  19. On February 7, 2018 at 8:52 am,
    spanky says:

    I am going to try to put a positive spin on the recent slaughter in the miners. AUY has been a leader out of the December low, and for the first time in over year its MAs on the daily chart are nicely bullishly aligned. Now that being said, it got way over extended over the 50 and 89 day MAs. I retrace or choppy action to allow the MAs to catch up to price is not out of the question. Of course the rest of the sector may suffer, but AUY may give us a clue on timing of the next leg up. And it is certainly a lot closer to those MAs than a few week ago, so a lot of work has already been done. But it may chop around for a month or more at this point.


  20. On February 7, 2018 at 8:58 am,
    spanky says:

    AUY is also hitting the 10 WMA today. There is also a neckline of an inverse H&S that it is currently backtesting. One would think it should get a bounce here. bottoming here would be fantastic.


  21. On February 7, 2018 at 9:24 am,
    spanky says:

    GLD:GDX ratio hitting the 144 WMA this week. One would imagine/hope it should offer some resistance. Maybe even an inflection point?


  22. On February 7, 2018 at 9:36 am,
    Excelsior says:

    $RSG.AX $RMGGF is one of my largest holdings in a #Gold #producer and I just got positioned fully at the end of 2017

    They very rarely get discussed on here, but they are one of the most solid well-run Mid-tiers out there, and definitely in #Africa & #Australia.

    Their new Corporate Slide-Deck is up from the recent Indaba conference in Cape Town:


  23. On February 7, 2018 at 10:34 am,
    spanky says:

    Gheesh, they will just not let up off of silver. Really hard to keep any sort of bullish bias in the face of this and the weekly and monthly charts. The COTs have to have come off quite a bit already (they weren’t extended to begin with). Silver has been in an unrelenting bear vs gold for over a year and half. Weekly RSI still hasn’t touched 30, so it may go lower still vs gold.


    Silver is in a precarious position on the weekly chart. On the Monthly it hasn’t been able to get a single close over the 50 month MA since the bear began in 2011. It hasn’t been able to close over the 20 month MA in 6 months.

    The divergence between silver and gold has been stunning and very surprising to me. It’s literally basically given back all its gains it made in 2016. A breakdown in the silver:gold ratio would not bode well for commodities at all. It’s hard to believe that there could be another leg down in commodities at this point, but that is exactly what $gold:$silver ratio is strongly suggesting. The monthly chart looks very bullish unfortunately.

    • On February 7, 2018 at 11:39 am,
      Excelsior says:

      I don’t see how the Silver Gold ratio has anything to do with the rest of the commodity complex. They are Precious Metals and money, and Silver will ultimately follow Gold for pricing over the long haul, more so than it’s industrial component.

      Each commodity should be looked at on it’s own merits because what is happening with Copper or Zinc or Oil or Corn or Soybeans or Potash or Uranium has nothing to do with the Gold:Silver ratio.

      • On February 7, 2018 at 11:55 am,
        spanky says:

        I disagree. It is no coincidence that the gold silver ratio bottomed in 2011 just as the commodity complex topped and the ratio bottomed in 2016 (for now) just as the commodity complex found a near term (2 years so far) bottom.

      • On February 7, 2018 at 11:58 am,
        Matthew says:

        Ex, one should always analyse each specific asset but the silver-gold ratio matters a great deal as it rises when inflation is having its way and falls when the backdrop turns “risk off” or generally scary.


        • On February 7, 2018 at 12:17 pm,
          Matthew says:

          I should point out that when it rises and falls near its long term average based on the usual cyclical market forces, it doesn’t necessarily mean much. It’s at the extremes that it matters most — like right now, with the silver-gold ratio at a two year low that translates to a gold-silver ratio at about 80 a two year high. The fifty year average is more like 45-50.

          • On February 7, 2018 at 12:28 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            I’d agree that extremes are noteworthy (like 80:1), but I hadn’t considered the Gold:Silver ratio tipping off inflation before, or that when it falls that it indicates a more defensive “risk off” posture from investors.

            That is interesting information to mull over, and I believe you have already done he homework here, but my skeptical mind will want to see evidence of a low ratio marking risk off periods and a high ratio marking inflationary periods. 🙂

            I appreciate you taking the time to explain things though as it didn’t make any sense to me at first glance.

          • On February 7, 2018 at 12:38 pm,
            Matthew says:

            You’re living the evidence right now. Notice that the gold-silver ratio hit 80 while the Dow is having its scariest week in a very long time? We saw the same thing as the Dow sold off two years ago, too. In the crash of ’08-’09, we really saw it as the GSR spiked into the 90 (the SGR plunged).

          • On February 7, 2018 at 12:40 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Yeup, I worked up the ratio chart and posted it down below and see the correlation now.

            Thanks. You learn something every day! 🙂

        • On February 7, 2018 at 12:25 pm,
          spanky says:

          Maybe this is like 2003-2004, where they diverged before the ratio rocketed up.

  24. On February 7, 2018 at 11:56 am,
    spanky says:

    meant to say the gold:silver ratio peaked in 2016 just as the commodity complex bottomed.

    • On February 7, 2018 at 12:32 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      I can see where it peaked in late 2008 at the bottom as well, and it bottomed in 2011.

      OK spanky & Matthew – that is very informative and useful. Much appreciated.


      • On February 7, 2018 at 12:34 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        Based on where we are today then we are much closer to an extended multi-year rally then like off the 2008 and 2016 highs in the Gold:Silver ratio which marked the times to be buying both, but in particular Silver.

        • On February 7, 2018 at 12:36 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          How can one not be bullish on the PMs then if the ratio today is 80.83 ?

          This looks like a great time to be accumulating for when things revert to a 50:1 ratio and that will coincide with a large move higher.

          • On February 7, 2018 at 12:43 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            84.38 was the high in the Gold:Silver ratio in early 2016, which isn’t that far from where we are now.

          • On February 7, 2018 at 12:47 pm,
            Matthew says:

            Exactly, Ex. How can one not be bullish the PMs? There are many reasons to be.

          • On February 7, 2018 at 12:56 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Well I already was bullish the PMs but not because of the Gold:Silver ratio. Now that is just another arrow in the quiver of reasons. 🙂

            For some reason I thought the ratio had hit near 80 a number of times and didn’t really line up with key events, but now I see that both extremes of the ratio mark bottoms and tops.

          • On February 8, 2018 at 6:35 am,
            GH says:

            For those with time/patience, playing these long-term ratios seems like a very easy game.

            It’s just for those of us who sweat the squiggles that it becomes trying.

            platinum:gold ratio:


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