Richard Postma - The Doctor Is In – Fri 9 Feb, 2018

An Important TLT Chart and Comments On The Broad Based Selling

Doc is still recovering from the flu bug but he took time today to join me and discuss a couple key markets. We first look at the TLT chart (below) and the significance of the 50 month MA and EMA. We also relate the broad based selling in the markets to the overall health of the US equity markets. GDX breaking below 21 is a key to watch to the close today as this support has held for over a year.

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Comments:
  1. On February 9, 2018 at 12:11 pm,
    confused says:

    WOW WOW WOW!!!!!
    DOC HAS MADE A MUST LISTEN INTERVIEW
    Great to see the Doc sticking his neck out on what could be the call of the century!

  2. On February 9, 2018 at 12:31 pm,
    irishtony says:

    Always good to hear from you Doc…Get well soon.
    BTW. Do you think at these prices, is this a good time to be buying “REAL” silver

    • On February 9, 2018 at 12:47 pm,
      RICHARD/DOC says:

      Irish, I believe we might have a couple more days of pressure on silver but right now the charts as yet have not signalled a breakdown in silver. If silver stabilizes the first of next week, I would say it’s not a bad time to add a little. In other words, the charts have not signalled an incipient blood bath.

      • On February 9, 2018 at 12:49 pm,
        irishtony says:

        Thanks Doc.

  3. On February 9, 2018 at 12:54 pm,
    GH says:

    Is the Stock Market Rigged? — Paul Craig Roberts, Dave Kranzler, and Michael Hudson

    https://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2018/02/08/stock-market-rigged-paul-craig-roberts-dave-kranzler/

    • On February 9, 2018 at 1:04 pm,
      b says:

      When is it time to say “thats how it works”?

      • On February 12, 2018 at 7:07 am,
        GH says:

        Ha ha, any time now, I spose.

        But it threatens our self-conception as free market capitalists, as it really is Marxism through the back door, a centrally controlled economy.

  4. On February 9, 2018 at 12:56 pm,
    Poppie says:

    Mr. Doc. Are you still watching UEC. If so how low will she go?. Thanks

    • On February 9, 2018 at 3:18 pm,
      RICHARD/DOC says:

      Poppie, I will be a buyer at $1.10-$1.20.

  5. On February 9, 2018 at 12:57 pm,
    pardu says:

    Doc, I hear that some are seeing the potential for gold to drop to 1275, what is your probable level the price of gold will drop to before starting its rise later in the year?

    • On February 9, 2018 at 3:21 pm,
      RICHARD/DOC says:

      Pardu, the odds are $1250-$1275 over the next few weeks—when we get there, ask me again.

  6. On February 9, 2018 at 12:58 pm,
    Silverdollar says:

    Great discussion. Hope you continue to improve, Doc. Your comments on the bond chart are simple to follow and believable. Hard to believe for those of us who were around in the early 80’s that it’s been a continual decrease in interest rates and a continual increase in gov’t and private debt of all types. The pendulum is ready to swing the other way and our future isn’t going to look anything the past. Could be some hard times ahead for many………..Could be some good times ahead for those who believe in the merits of PMs. Gann
    Global agrees with you…”The odds have gone way up we’re in the midst of a final capitulation leg down in the precious metal stocks. If so, the potential triple digit advance is on the table.”
    Thanks for your time you spend with Cory.

  7. On February 9, 2018 at 1:04 pm,
    Matthew says:

    Gold bulls should be very happy about the following TLT:GLD chart:

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TLT%3AGLD&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p38905601670&a=542055982

  8. On February 9, 2018 at 1:11 pm,
    Silverdollar says:

    Core comments from a good article on ZH: “… Hartnett writes that after 706 rate cuts, $12.1tn asset purchases by central banks, global interest rates @ lowest levels in 5000 years, “2018 marks end of era of maximum liquidity, maximum asset returns, minimal rates, minimal volatility, minimal spreads…end of era of Wall St inflation thanks to Main St deflation.” Full article: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-02-09/bofa-predicted-market-plunge-heres-what-it-thinks-happens-next

  9. On February 9, 2018 at 1:16 pm,
    bonzo barzini says:

    Doc, you are in conflict with Avi G. and Gary Savage who say we should buy the dip in stocks. Avi thinks S&P 500 will climb to 3000 by Christmas and then have a 20% correction.
    It will be interesting to see who is right. While you were gone I bought some DGMLF last Mon.@.09, and tried to buy more@.082 on Tues. It did fall to .082 but my “all or none” order did not go through. They halted trading last night so they are probably filing for bankruptcy or being taken over by KL. Get well soon!

    • On February 9, 2018 at 3:25 pm,
      RICHARD/DOC says:

      BB, everyone is counting on increasing earnings and they could be right that we could move higher yet. All I’m saying is that the big gains in the conventional markets have been made and that we will start to form a massive top over time. It’s not worth it to me to eke out more gains at increased risk. The odds are we are in a massive change and disruption and that the big gains in the future will no longer be in the conventional markets but in those things that when you drop them on your foot they hurt. That’s where I personally will now start focusing.

  10. On February 9, 2018 at 1:25 pm,
    spanky says:

    SM has bottomed. Next week, the yen, gold and silver are going to get smashed. We should get a small bounce thereafter for a few days and then more hammering into the March 21 FOMC. Meanwhile I expect the SM to get very close to its recent highs by March 21.

  11. On February 9, 2018 at 1:30 pm,
    spanky says:

    Weekly candles don’t get any uglier than this. Next week a hard smash, weak bounce the following week and then down down down into the March 21 FOMC:

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SILVER&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p57012752771&a=576743086&listNum=1

  12. On February 9, 2018 at 1:32 pm,
    Matthew says:

    As for the U-shaped recovery, I don’t see it at all. The rocket out of the 2016 low left most people behind and (STILL) unable to buy in at anything close to the bear market low.
    Extreme bullishness was and still is warranted but it probably doesn’t feel like it for those who blew it in 2016.

    I’ll move to the U-shaped camp if SILJ drops another 35% to 50% from here.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SILJ&p=W&yr=5&mn=3&dy=22&id=p36893765911&a=576739865

    • On February 9, 2018 at 1:47 pm,
      spanky says:

      GCC monthly chart. It’s getting ready to break down along with the yen (which put in a doji on the daily chart and has likely topped). The consolidation since 2016 looks like nothing more than a continuation pattern. SILJ is leading the way down. Book it.

      • On February 9, 2018 at 2:38 pm,
        Matthew says:

        You need a remedial course in charting if you think SILJ looks big-picture bearish in the least.

        • On February 9, 2018 at 2:52 pm,
          spanky says:

          Yeah sure, “big picture”. “Big picture” commodities have looked good since 1773. They are up 10.8% since then. Still looks like a bull to me.

          • On February 9, 2018 at 3:01 pm,
            Matthew says:

            You have no idea how embarrassed you should be for that very telling comment. The big picture for the miners IS extraordinarily bullish. You are completely in the dark.

    • On February 9, 2018 at 1:51 pm,
      spanky says:

      Most people like to see higher highs and higher lows on a daily, weekly and yearly basis.

      By your definition of a bull market, commodities are in a raging bull market because they are still higher than prices during the American Revolution.

      • On February 9, 2018 at 2:58 pm,
        Matthew says:

        No, I see reality. Pull up a monthly chart of the bull that started 15 years ago and pay attention to the pullbacks and consolidations along the way. Can you do that?
        If you were involved back then, I bet you cried like a baby in 2008 instead of buying a single share.
        I took a beating but still bought IPT into its 17 cent low (it hit 3.14 three years later) and I held GORO as it plunged from $6 to $2 (and sold it all in the mid to high $20s).

        Ignoring 2008, 30% declines were still a dime a dozen.

        http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24XAU&p=W&yr=15&mn=0&dy=9&id=p74061897195&a=576755171

        • On February 9, 2018 at 3:05 pm,
          bonzo barzini says:

          Matthew, after selling your GORO in the 20’s did you ever buy it back @ 2?

          • On February 9, 2018 at 3:27 pm,
            Matthew says:

            I did not but not because I don’t like it. The weekly chart looks as good as any and it is still up almost 4-fold since the low two years ago. Spanky can’t see it but the big picture is as bullish as can be. 😉

    • On February 9, 2018 at 3:31 pm,
      RICHARD/DOC says:

      Matthew, I should qualify the U-shaped recovery to the PMs themselves and not the stocks. The monthly chart for the PMs is a classic for the U-shaped pattern.

  13. On February 9, 2018 at 2:05 pm,
    spanky says:

    Mining stocks were flat the entirety of 2017 while the USD lost around 20% of its value, a historic decline.

    A measly 2 week rally in the USD after that epic decline has the miners now on the verge of breaking down. That while the yen rallied too! GDX is clearly, by anyone’s definition, in a bear market that has lasted 19 months. Silver is about to confirm that bear market.

    • On February 9, 2018 at 2:36 pm,
      Matthew says:

      The miners are still up massively since the bear market lows, and after the gains of 2016, the long correction is hardly shocking or bearish. None of us likes waiting but the current action has changed nothing.
      The size of the correction (18 months so far) is due to the size of the gain that preceded it.

      • On February 9, 2018 at 3:02 pm,
        spanky says:

        Say what you want, but no prior “bull market” in the mining stocks has looked this ugly on a monthly chart. None.

        • On February 9, 2018 at 3:18 pm,
          Matthew says:

          You are hilariously wrong. Enjoy.

      • On February 9, 2018 at 3:09 pm,
        spanky says:

        Also, the 200 WMA for $XAU is still declining. The 2015 lows won’t be worked off for another year.

    • On February 9, 2018 at 4:50 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      spanky – the mining stocks were not flat for all of 2017. They had a Q1 Run in Jan/Feb, and blip up in the spring fling, and then a rally out of August into Sept, and finally another out of Dec 13th FOMC.

      There were multiple tradable rallies, but if you missed them and just sat in AG and EXK without taking action then that is on you.

      There are 3-5 good rallies EVERY year for those that position accordingly. For someone that likes charts so much you sure have a hard time reading them.

  14. On February 9, 2018 at 2:15 pm,
    BobUK says:

    Hope you get well soon from the flu Doc. I had it for the entire month of January – a really nasty strain this year.

    • On February 9, 2018 at 3:29 pm,
      RICHARD/DOC says:

      Bob, you got that right. I got it after being on a cruise. I told my wife that’s the last cruise for me since I believe those ships are nothing but disease/bacteria factories.

      • On February 9, 2018 at 4:38 pm,
        CFS says:

        As someone who cruises at least times a year, for an average of a couple of months a year, physician heal thyself. take probiotics and AHCC.

        Other than cancer, I have not had a cold/flu or been sick in at least a decade.

        • On February 9, 2018 at 4:53 pm,
          CFS says:

          oops that was 4-6 times a year.

          The theory behind the AHCC (actually with vitamin C) is to boost thw immune system.
          The probiotics are to flood the gut with good bacteria, so you can’t get sick of bad food.

          If I go to Brazil or some arab countries, I take one probiotic before each meal.
          I literally cannot remember when I was last sick with cold, flu, or food poisoning.
          (And I dare to eat salads in Mexico)

      • On February 9, 2018 at 7:23 pm,
        bonzo barzini says:

        Doc, you are right about those big cruise ships, but you and your wife should try a 6 day cruise in summer or fall on a Maine windjammer through the islands off Maine. You’ll breathe fresh salt air on the deck of an old schooner and probably won’t get sick. The food is top notch. Or you and your wife could paddle a canoe down the Mississippi to New Orleans. I spent the summers of 1968 and 1970 working as an oiler on Mississippi river boats pushing barges from Louisiana to Minnesota, and also up the Ohio, Tennessee, and Missouri rivers. Saw enough fantastic sunsets for a lifetime and never got sick. Bon voyage.

      • On February 11, 2018 at 5:17 pm,
        Dan Paloyan says:

        I agree with you. Besides, you are stuck and cannot really escape the environment. Hey Doc, interesting that you believe that the market correction is just a beginning of bigger things to come. I now learn that day trading and trading penny ( or sub penny) stocks is becoming the fad again, very reminiscent of 2000 era. Also Gold based out and went sideways for some time, back then, before the gold/dow chart finally signaled the turn for the precious metals. I am thinking of waiting until we have that confirmation before committing more funds to this sector. What are your thoughts?

  15. On February 9, 2018 at 4:16 pm,
    Jason says:

    Bagged bear profits like a Boss this week!

  16. On February 9, 2018 at 4:44 pm,
    cmc says:

    Heck, I’ve been in Doc’s camp for a long time. Thanks for the update, Doc. I’m sitting on my PM stock holdings, waiting for the big one.

  17. On February 9, 2018 at 5:00 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    (BHS) (KXPLF) Bayhorse Silver Inc Commences Mining The Legend Zone At The Bayhorse Silver Mine, Ships First Ore-Sorted Upgraded Mineralization, Oregon, USA

    February 8, 2018

    “Bayhorse Silver Inc., TSX-V: BHS has shipped the first upgraded mineralization from the Ore-Sorter at the Bayhorse Mine, Oregon, USA, to Mineral Solutions of Coeur D’Alene, Idaho, USA for further processing.”

    “The Company has initiated mining on the promising newly discovered and developed Legend Zone at the Bayhorse Silver Mine. The Legend Zone lies 50 feet beneath the Sunshine Zone and extends the thickness of mineralization to 70 feet from the previous 20 feet. Chip, channel and grab samples from recent development in this unit have been submitted for assay.”

    Bayhorse CEO Graeme O’Neill states: “commencing mining the newly identified Legend Zone, that has extended the vertical extent of the mineralization, will provide the ability to increase the daily tonnage mined, and is another big step for the Company.”

    http://www.bayhorsesilver.com/bayhorse-silver-inc-commences-mining-the-legend-zone-at-the-bayhorse-silver-mine-ships-first-ore-sorted-upgraded-mineralization-oregon-usa/

    • On February 9, 2018 at 5:05 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      (SVM) Silvercorp Reports Q3 Results: Net Income of $12.7 Million, $0.08 per Share and Provides Fiscal 2019 Production and Cash Costs Guidance

      >Net income attributable to equity shareholders of $12.7 million, or $0.08 per share

      > Gross margin of 52%

      > Sales of $44.4 million

      > Silver, lead, and zinc metals sold amounted to approximately 1.5 million ounces silver, 15.8 million pounds lead, and 6.4 million pounds zinc

      > Head grades were 315 grams per tonne (“g/t”) for silver, 4.5% for lead, and 1.0% for zinc at the Ying Mining District

      > Cash cost per ounce of silver2, net of by-product credits, of negative -$5.92

      > All-in sustaining cost per ounce of silver, net of by-product credits, of $3.16

      > Spent $1.8 million to buyback 788,000 common shares of the Company

      > Paid $1.7 million dividend to equity shareholders of the Company

      > Invested $3.8 million to participate in a private placement of New Pacific Metals Corp.

      > Ended the quarter with $113.3 million in cash and cash equivalents and short-term investments, an increase of $16.8 million or 17%

      http://www.silvercorpmetals.com/news_and_media/news/index.php?content_id=702

      • On February 9, 2018 at 5:07 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        People are so freaked out about $16 Silver, but with an AISC of $3.16 per ounce does it look like (SVM)Silvercorp is going to have any problems generating cash.

        Uh…. how about no Scott….

        https://media.makeameme.org/created/how-about-no-ctmxhp.jpg

        • On February 9, 2018 at 5:44 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          ?

          • On February 9, 2018 at 5:56 pm,
            Chartster says:
          • On February 9, 2018 at 5:59 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Chartster – Hahaha!

            I just love Dr Evil quotes. 🙂

          • On February 9, 2018 at 6:05 pm,
            Chartster says:

            Ha ha, I had to send that after yours. It cracked me up.

      • On February 9, 2018 at 8:43 pm,
        b says:

        Siver corp? You gotta be kidding..

        lol.

        I got bored and picked some up today when it took the dip.

        • On February 9, 2018 at 10:18 pm,
          Matthew says:

          Well your timing was probably perfect. Based on today’s action, there’s a very good chance that the silver stocks in general have bottomed.
          SILJ closed 3.3% above the day’s low and SILJ priced in SLV filled 3% above its low after filling a gap that happened near last year’s low:

          http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SILJ%3ASLV&p=120&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&id=p07227678925&a=576821120

          • On February 9, 2018 at 10:21 pm,
            Matthew says:

            That’s a 2 hr chart so many probably can’t view it.

          • On February 10, 2018 at 6:02 am,
            Excelsior says:

            b – I was also adding more SVM the last few days. The fact that they are getting dragged down with the rest of the silver miners when they are actually killing it and producing hefty profits is quite the disconnect in the marketplace.

            That is fine by me because they are building up a large enough warchest of cash to likely buy NUAG and have mentioned picking up more assets near their 2 mills in China. In addition, for $10 million they can bring their gold mine back on line in the next year.

            Not many companies with that much juicy margin out there. It should be rocketing up, not selling off, but it will in due time……

        • On February 9, 2018 at 10:20 pm,
          Matthew says:
          • On February 9, 2018 at 11:27 pm,
            b says:

            I bought svm because its the only one on my list that bothered to tank a bit today.
            the rest were stuck where they were at and one had the nerve to get a little more expensive.

            so, svm it was.

            fyi, ipt is on my list, as u no it refused to move.

          • On February 10, 2018 at 5:56 am,
            Excelsior says:

            SVM Silvercorp is producing Silver equivalent ounces at $3 and selling them at $16-$17, so they are stockpiling cash in an aggressive way. I can only imagine how they’ll be doing if Silver gets into the $20+ range and If Zinc & Lead keep moving higher.

            > (SVM) Ended the quarter with $113.3 million in cash and cash equivalents, an increase of $16.8 million or 17%

            They have a robust pipeline of projects in China to continue to feed their mills and they have a 29% stake in $NUAG New Pacific Metals Corpand will likely just do a #TakeOver down the road to increase their asset base.

            Their Lead & Zinc credits drive their cash costs down to negative (-$5.92) so they are a huge help, but that was my point a year or so ago – the best #Zinc & #Lead plays will likely end up being #Silver miners.

            according to their most recent #CorporatePresentation $SVM still has a 15 year mine life remaining (and they’ll keep drilling and exploring to expand that). They also mention local assets around their 2 mills that they can acquire, and the team at Silvercorp is considering bring back online their BYP Gold Mine (page 23) which is currently on care and maintenance.

            > (SVM) Silvercorp Metals – Corporate Presentation – Jan 18, 2018:

            http://www.silvercorpmetals.com/_resources/presentations/corporate-presentation.pdf

          • On February 10, 2018 at 10:07 am,
            b says:

            svm does look alright dont hey.

          • On February 10, 2018 at 11:03 am,
            Matthew says:

            I just noticed that IPT finished Friday a rather large 8% above the low for the day.
            Such action was widespread and included the gold stocks. GDX dipped 1.28% below the December low but finished 2.76% above it and did so on very good volume.

            With everyone so bearish short term and neutral at best for months to come, I think I’ll stick with my bullish outlook. (Admittedly, we now need some significant strength ASAP to turn the weekly chart oscillators positive again.)

            http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&id=p12565531866&listNum=5&insp=1

  18. On February 9, 2018 at 5:26 pm,
    CFS says:
  19. On February 9, 2018 at 6:50 pm,
    Chartster says:

    This sure was a high quality segment! Great comments, Doc!

  20. On February 10, 2018 at 3:15 am,
    CFS says:

    This raises questions about how dirty a swap creature Sessions is:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cO0Lh8gOu5Q&feature=youtu.be

    Uranium One investigation

  21. On February 10, 2018 at 3:48 am,
    CFS says:

    Seg. 5:
    Should the U.S. Constitution apply to non-citizens?

    • On February 10, 2018 at 12:09 pm,
      Matthew says:

      Of course it should.

  22. On February 11, 2018 at 9:11 am,
    Dan Paloyan says:

    Hey Doc, sounds like you have a minority opinion, namely that you believe that we are in the beginning stages of a bear market in general equities, rather than merely in a correction, which even many of the Gold bulls believe. Are you then equating this to 2000 or 2007-8, etc? What makes you come to that conclusion?

    • On February 11, 2018 at 11:04 am,
      Matthew says:

      For what it’s worth, I agree with Doc on this for many reasons. Stocks have gone parabolic gaining 50% in just over a year while inflation and interests rates are rising. The Shiller P/E ratio for the S&P is higher now than at the 2007 peak or even the 1929 peak and I see no realistic fundamental or technical reason to expect it to come close to the 1999/2000 peak anytime soon (if ever). Even at the recent high of 26,616, the Dow was still over 50% lower than its 1999 high when adjusted for inflation and the economic, demographic, and political situation that the market enjoyed back then is not present today.

      http://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe/

      • On February 11, 2018 at 11:06 am,
        Matthew says:

        I also think there’s no doubt that Trump’s tax cuts are thoroughly already priced into the market.