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Why Long Term Rates Will Peak This Year

Cory
February 20, 2018

Chris Temple made the comment last week that long term rates will peak in 2018. With the 10 year now slightly over 2.9% and a huge number of treasuries being sold this week Chris outlines the many reasons why he thinks later this year yields will turn back down. We also discuss how to position your portfolio for this change in the direction of yields.

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Discussion
34 Comments
    b
    Feb 20, 2018 20:44 AM

    I wonder if were getting the “final” washout.
    Shouldnt gold be headed lower thru the doldrums?

      Feb 20, 2018 20:58 AM

      A lot could happen before the summer. Take a look at what happened in 2006. A repeat (which I am not predicting) would take gold 30% higher by the first half of May:

      http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=D&st=2006-01-01&en=2006-05-27&id=p88988616475

      Feb 20, 2018 20:00 AM
      Feb 20, 2018 20:03 AM

      the doldrums is watching silver………
      I think gold is fine…..jmo

        Feb 20, 2018 20:19 AM

        Gold has been great which is why silver now looks much more appealing. When the turn comes and we finally get a break out for gold, silver is going to blow gold away.

          Feb 20, 2018 20:21 AM

          I was actually temped to buy some phyz today, silver phyz……at 80 to 1…..you know it is not to bad…. 🙂

            Feb 20, 2018 20:31 AM

            Yes, not bad at all. Your upside would be far greater than your downside.

            Feb 20, 2018 20:36 PM

            I’m interested in Silver for just these reasons, as when it gets moving it will far perform Gold on a percentage basis, and it is unlikely to stay over 80:1 for an extended period of time and will be reverting more to the mean.

            When we start seeing that kind of catch up action in Silver, then the Silver miners will really go on a tear, and that is where some serious profits will be made over the next 1-2 years.

            Feb 20, 2018 20:45 PM

            correction: Silver will far “outperform” gold….

        Feb 20, 2018 20:36 PM

        Haha Jerry I agree. Silver watching is akin to watching paint dry. At least watching paint dry is boring at worst. Whereas silver can be depressing. Try not to watch everyday I suppose. Higher prices will eventuate. When is the big question?

          Feb 20, 2018 20:44 PM

          Silver has been like watching paint dry, but the only constant is change, and this is the exact reason why when an asset class like Silver, or Uranium, starts to move it leaves investors with recency bias in the dust. We saw it with Lithium, with Zinc, with Cobalt, and we saw it with Silver in 2016 and again in early 2017.

          When it moves…. it moves….. and the time to accumulate is when it is boring or trending down, especially when so many technicians looking at longer term charts look to later 2018 and 2019 as positive for Gold. What is good for Gold is great for Silver.

    Feb 20, 2018 20:38 PM

    Then again, we could just throw every other asset class out and go 100% Crypto crazy…

    ETF Veteran Goes Crypto, Predicting Multitrillion-Dollar Market
    By Camila Russo – February 20, 2018

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-20/etf-veteran-goes-crypto-predicting-multitrillion-dollar-market

    Feb 20, 2018 20:42 PM

    The DRC is such a mess. This is all the more reasons for companies with Cobalt outside of the Congo to get a bid…

    > Congo: Thousands flee amid surge in ‘horrific violence’
    UN warns of ‘humanitarian disaster of extraordinary proportions’ amid surge of violence in Congo’s Tanganyika province.

    5 hours ago

    http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/02/thousands-flee-atrocities-south-eastern-drc-180220143919759.html

    Feb 20, 2018 20:25 PM

    Mueller Expands his Investigation Desperate to Bring Down Trump

    Blog/Conspiracy
    Posted Feb 21, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

    CNN is ecstatic. Mueller cannot prove any connection between Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner and Russia, so now he is turning to investigate if he solicited China or Qatar to invest any money in his company during the campaign.

    https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/politics/mueller-expands-his-investigation-desperate-to-bring-down-trump/

      Feb 21, 2018 21:06 AM

      100% agree with MA……….MUELLER SHOULD BE DISMISSED…..this is Way OVERDUE…..

        Feb 21, 2018 21:07 AM

        and MUELLER needs to be sued, as I said yesterday in my comments…….

    Feb 21, 2018 21:17 AM

    There’s a flip side to that coin..and lots to unpack.

    https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/966248502371037185.html

      Feb 21, 2018 21:39 AM

      Trump does not need Mueller to take down Obama nor CLinton…jmo
      Mueller has been in the swamp way to long, if, he was a patriot, he would
      have flipped a long time ago……jmo

        Feb 21, 2018 21:42 AM

        More of a Benedict Arnold……..

        Feb 21, 2018 21:56 AM

        Would have flipped a long time ago..? Flipped to who?! Obama, Bush, Clinton?? I don’t think so… The deep state using the mockingbird media can destroy anyone (until Trump got elected).

          Feb 21, 2018 21:35 AM

          Flipped, ……turned his patriotism to , maybe Ron Paul….and the IRS investigation of the Teaparty….
          But, I would agree that until this time, No one appeared to be strong enough to take on the DEEP STATE.

            Feb 21, 2018 21:42 AM

            I have a hard time thinking , that Mueller is a good guy,…..HSBC, 911, connection to HRC, what was he waiting on…..For Bill and Hilly to stack up another 109 bodies on the list of nail gun suicides……

            Feb 21, 2018 21:44 AM

            If, is was a patriot, he should have done the investigation PRO BONO

    Feb 21, 2018 21:06 AM

    Chartster………here is one for you concerning Representation….
    Let me know what you think…..thanks…..
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FULEXLa6Nnk

    Feb 21, 2018 21:20 AM

    Great comments Chris, and I share your fondness of some of the REITs sector. I have been in this area for the past few years, and they have both provided solid yields and capital gains (although some of the valuations are beginning to get a little stretched especially when trusts start trading at premiums to NAV again I’m talking from European perspective. Don’t know what’s happening in the US re: REITS.