Do Central Banks Have The Ability To Save The Markets Again?
Chris Temple joins me today to share his thoughts on the markets reaction today to more of Powell’s comments in front of congress. We also look at the general pullback in positive economic data and follow up on Chris’s recent call that yields will peak this year. There is even the potential that 2.95% could be the peak for the 10 year.
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The end game of fractional reserve banking, for sure – you can’t deny the laws of mathematics. The discussion that needs to be had is of social credit; perhaps technologically enabled by blockchain technology on a macro level. And in conjunction with that, unlimited, free market choices of money systems for local levels; ones of their own choosing.
“And in conjunction with that, unlimited, free market choices of money systems for local levels;” Oh Wow…….more fragmented than states rights with 50+ different potential currencies? Can’t see that working at least for very long. Became a real impetus for adopting the Euro didn’t it?
Sounds like we’re in a pickle Chris and a new recipe will sorely be needed!
BTW, That 10% chance I referred to (that the peak in long-term rates is ALREADY in) is now more like 15 – 20%
Great Silver chart showing massive bullish cup & handle pattern.
[for all the Silver haters take a sip out of that chart 😉 ]
Kimble Charting Solutions – 2/25/2018
Hope the handle does not break off……….. 🙂
Nice chart…….
Very nice! Here’s to hopeum☕️
…. and a toast to the new bull market that kicked off when Gold bottomed in Dec 2015. When the next leg up in Gold finally takes out the 2016 high of $1377.50, then it will drag Silver’s sorry butt along with it until it finally wakes up.
When that happens, it will trigger the institutional money to come in off the sidelines and some of that will find it’s way into the Silver sector, and since it is much smaller it won’t take much to kick off that bullish pattern that has been setting up for a long time.
It’s less hopeum and more riding up this metals cycles to a very profitable return.
There still may be a few rough months to slog through but later 2018 into 2019 should be very rewarding for those that position before it takes off. No rush at present, but I’ll be searching through my couch cushions looking for any spare change to throw at the miners if they do have one more sentiment wash.
However if the metals just take off suddenly and leave most behind, my portfolio is already well fortified with miners in the PMs, Base Metals, Battery Metals, and Specialty Metals.
Ever Upward!
ditto on silver’s sorry butt………..
Slver will eventually outperform Gold, but for the last year it has been weak compared to Gold.
This too shall pass, and the Gold:Silver ratio will not stay at these extreme levels.
Ex:
Did you ever consider another vocation like preachin’? You’re quite convincing!!!
Haha! Good one Silverdollar.
Sorry I’ll stop preaching, but there has been such negative sentiment towards Silver on here lately, that it helps to point out that just because something has been weak recently, doesn’t mean it will stay that way (especially in a new bull market).
Of the worst enemies of any investor or trader, be it metals, real estate, business trends, whatever….. is Recency Bias.
Most investors assume things will stay as they have been most recently, when the truth is that the only constant is change. Cheers!
Thanks Silverdollar. I’m a shareholder again of First Majestic because I think it has good upside leverage to rising metals prices, a beat up share price, and I respect Keith as ceo. Who knows he may be right about triple digit silver…..
> For now I’d settle for Silver in the low $20’s as a level that will really light a fire under the sector, and if it doubled into the low $30’s it would get really wild really fast.
There will be some pain ahead Ex in terms of gold and silver going nowhere bar down possibly. The metals are rangebound and trapped for the time being.
Whatever the agenda, it would appear that gold and silver are cornered, intentional or not. Long repeated talks of rate rises seems to pressure the PMs then when a rate rise does eventuate the metals respond positively. Yet they only recoup some of the previous losses. Then it is a case of wash, rinse, repeat as this cycle starts over. One step forward, two steps back!
Current sentiment, fundamentals and technicals are not enough to break the PMs free. An outside catalyst is required and it needs to blindside the players.
I wouldn’t disagree with you about short term weakness expected in the PMs, and have a small JDST hedge in place to counterbalance some of my Gold & Silver mining stock exposure for just those reasons.
As for the outside catalyst, it will likely be a stew of different factors over a single driver. There is the Debt Ceiling issue, the new Tariff mess that is rattling the world stage, the corrective move down in the general stock markets shaking confidence in the US economy, and a Fed that is totally unequipped for reigning in real inflation if that train leaves the station.
Yes the rate hike babble pushes metals prices down, but then as you mentioned after the hikes the metals and related miners have surged every single time. It is counter-intuitive to the lame stream media, but not if one thinks about it for more than a millisecond. Real rates are still very low and the Fed is going to stay behind the curve which is bullish for the metals.
In addition, we discussed last August & October that a weakening dollar which breaks support at 91-92 would likely be a driver of higher metals prices. We saw the dollar break support, and it did support the metals, but they didn’t climb as high as one would expect, which was disappointing.
However, I believe the US dollar is heading down lower for longer, and that wages and inflation will continue to creep up underpinning a rise in commodities and PMs.
David Vincent (aka SPOCK) shared this Dollar Chart. A dive down into the low 80’s or even the 70’s over the next few years wouldn’t surprise me.
http://www.kereport.com/wp-content/uploads/usd-2-feb-768×456.png
No Hopeum:
MOSCOW (AP) — Exxon Mobil will end a joint venture with Russia’s state-controlled Rosneft due to U.S. and European sanctions against Moscow.
Exxon revealed in a regulatory filing that it decided to end the partnership late last year after the U.S. expanded sanctions against Russia. The company plans to begin unwinding the joint venture this year.
The retreat will result in an after-tax loss of about $200 million — spare change in comparison to Exxon’s 2017 profit of $19.7 billion.
But ending the partnership with Rosneft appeared to dash Exxon’s hopes of drilling in the potentially oil-rich Russian Arctic, and it erases some of the legacy of Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, the one-time Exxon chairman and CEO.
Russia is never going to join the USof Rothechild in anything………
Here is your Hopeum…..knowledge of the Act of 1871
Interesting, OOTB… I’ve known all that for quite some time, but I’ll share it to disturb some sheep😏
You the man…….I learned it from you……. 🙂
Oh? That’s great! Glad you learned a bit about history and finance. By the way, that system is just about over. I’m talking gold standard, debt jubilee and a real republic. That’s what is happening real soon. (sooner than most think…)
That info you posted in the utube will be in the history books in a few years, so it never happens again.
The DEBT JUBILEE was mentioned by me first……… 🙂
The Jews like the Law…….so, we should give them some of their medicine…….JUBILEE on the DEBT…….. 🙂
‘Listen to us now’: Putin unveils new Russian nuclear arsenal @ RT
The latest advances in Russian strategic deterrence have made America’s anti-missile systems obsolete,……The Russian leader made the comments during his state of the nation address on Wednesday
seems Russia has miniaturized a nuclear reactor, the kind used on nuclear submarines,100 times smaller,generates more power and reaches peak power, 200 times faster.
The Russians announced a list of handy little gadgets.
I dont think any of us would have long to worry about a nuclear war if our brave and heroic neocons zionist pilgrims decide for war with Russia.
I was wondering what they had developed if they could sell the s 400.
The Fed may have ammo, but the firing pin is lost.
(SCZ) (SZSMF) Santacruz to Receive Monthly Fees of Approximately US$1.1 Million from Carrizal Mining Pursuant to a Services Agreement
March 1, 2018 /CNW/
“Arturo Préstamo, CEO of Santacruz, stated “This services agreement is an important step for the Company as it will provide working capital that will allow us to expand the Veta Grande Project into a significant silver producer, whilst increasing the Rosario Project production during the year.”
https://ceo.ca/@newswire/santacruz-to-receive-monthly-fees-of-approximately
SCZ is set up to have a great 2018, and as I’ve stated about a half dozen times on prior blogs, most people have completely missed the fact that Santacruz Silver divested 3 different non-core projects to First Majestic, Americas Silver, and Marlin Gold in 2017 to clear off the debt and pave the way for profitability at their 2 producing Silver/Zinc/Lead mines.
On a percentage basis little SCZ could really rip higher later this year, and there is much more room for an upside surprise than downside risk at this point in their trajectory.
IPT.V from 2011 to date looks exactly like $sugar from 1995 to 2005.
IPT.V is set to rally soon (within the next few months), and that rally should take it all the way back to the declining trendline you can draw from the 2011 peak and the 2016 peak. Right now that’s coming in around .85. We should get about a 6-7 month rally into that peak. $sugar, when it hit its trendline, it proceeded to decline for a year back down to test the prior consolidation zone. For IPT.V I would put that at about .40 sometime in 2019. It was thereafter that $sugar made its moonshot run. But it didn’t break it’s declining trendline from 1995 until 2004. I don’t expect IPT.V to do any differently.
Rick Rule // What resources should investors focus on?
(I don’t always agree with Rick’s opinions, but I’ll always give his thoughts consideration)
Revengeance Economics – Feb 23, 2018
Erik Townsend welcomes Rick Rule to MacroVoices. Erik and Rick discuss:
— Why focus on investing natural resources?
— Using top down macro in resource investing
— Rare earths and lithium
— What resources should investors focus on?
— Uranium and nuclear energy
— Liquid Fluoride Thorium Reactors
— Copper, Potash and Dry Bulk Shipping
— Water as a commodity
— China and the future of rare earths
PDAC President Glenn Mullan on Lithium, Cobalt and Rare Earths
InvestorIntel – Feb 28, 2018 #VIDEO
>> Glenn Mullan: “There is always a hot commodity. It is kind of like mocha java versus vanilla. You pick your flavor, sometimes they are very temporal, and they do not last. Sometimes it is the beginning of a cycle that is sustainable. With the clean technology and cleantech and the green aspects to a lot of our initiatives and the minerals industry it is probably looking like this is going to be one of the sustainable periods of time where we look at exploration changing focus, kind of, like the beginning of uranium back in the 1950s and ‘60s. That lasted for decades so there is no reason to think that lithium, cobalt and some of the rare earths will not enjoy that kind of prosperity right now. ”
Paul Tudor Jones: Own Commodities & Hard Assets, Avoid Stocks & Bonds
by @Goldfinger on March 1, 2018
“Legendary investor Paul Tudor Jones (PTF) offered a bullish view of commodities in a wide ranging, pointed interview with Goldman Sachs. He also made it clear that he is negative on bonds and certainly not a fan of stocks right now as the US engages in deficit spending to fund fiscal stimulus in a low interest rate environment. ”
“PTJ compared the current policy actions in the U.S. to the late-1960s, when interest rates were low and the government enacted fiscal stimulus measures in order to stimulate the economy and help pay for the Vietnam War. There is a key difference between now and then; the economy isn’t in recession and the U.S. isn’t involved in a massive war effort. Jones believes that “we are setting the stage for accelerating inflation, just as we did in the late ’60s.”
“If PTJ is correct we should see the CRB Index break-out above 200 over the coming weeks which should lead to a quick 15%-20% in major commodities:”
https://ceo.ca/@goldfinger/paul-tudor-jones-own-commodities-hard-assets-avoid-stocks-bonds
Sheila ……..and the bad news…….Hello
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-03-01/sheila-bair-bitcoin-we-shouldnt-ban-it-green-bills-your-pocket-dont-have-intrinsic
Don’t put any money into bitcoin that you can’t afford to lose. But I don’t think we should ban it — the green bills in your pocket don’t have an intrinsic value, either. The value is based on what others think is its value. That’s true of any currency. Regulation should be focused on good disclosure, education, warding off fraud, and making sure it is not used for illicit activities. Let the market figure out what it’s worth. That is what it is doing now.
I double posted this , since it is a good one….from someone who knows…… 🙂
What is wrong with the way we live today,a fuse backs up circuit breakers, Why? Because circuit beakers fail if an overcurrent or an overload positions exists. If the condition that caused the circuit breaker to trip is not rectified this same breaker can be reset until it loses it’s factory calibration. A fuse is a one time protection, it cannot be reset it must be replaced only after the problem is corrected. If you don’t have gold backing a currency the fiat currency can only be kicked down the road so many times until the underlying problem is fixed. The trouble is the damage that is caused when problems are allowed to be shunted until they can’t anymore and then it is 1929 all over instead of 1921 when a depression lasted only a year because the problems weren’t ignored. DT
I heard some talk around here today about change, change like The Beatles say, “Happens within you and without you”. If I could live without my teeth, my feet, and my eyes, my life would be infinitely better. Be careful of what you wish for The Robots don’t need human failings. DT
So, if the FED’s normalization efforts cease and possibly reverse, after 9 years of lower rates and balance sheet expansion, isn’t that admittance that the last 9 years of policy have been a failure? And then do we not have to accept the fact that more of the same will eventually get us to negative rates…..? Isn’t that about the time that a majority has to admit the failure of fiat and real assets/money are all that is left for the hopeful?