Richard Postma - The Doctor Is In – Mon 12 Mar, 2018

Gold and Silver Short Term Outlook Plus The Gold:Silver Ratio

Today when Doc and I chatted we first focus on the gold to silver ratio that is close to the 80 level. Over the past 20 years the ratio typically rolls over around that level. This ties in to our outlook for both the metals over the next couple weeks.

Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show

Richard PostmaCory Fleck
View related posts on:

  1. On March 12, 2018 at 3:23 pm,
    irishtony says:

    Right here goes, i am going to put my head on the block for end of year prediction.
    Rate increases…2 for rest of year.
    Anybody else got the balls to make a prediction ?.

    • On March 12, 2018 at 4:41 pm,
      Dick Tracy says:

      If you are still working at the government, don’t quit your day job. DT

    • On March 12, 2018 at 5:05 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      IrishT – I’ll “play ball” with your year end prediction challenge: 🙂

      Gold: $1430 (right under an important prior peak of $1434)

      Silver: $21.60 (right under an important prior peak form 2014 of $21.63)

      Dollar: 84

      Rate Increases – 3 (but the fed will be behind the curve)

  2. On March 12, 2018 at 11:09 pm,
    Bulhus says:

    IRISH T…I’ll play ball too
    $$$….. 100

    • On March 13, 2018 at 6:50 am,
      Excelsior says:

      I’d be very surprised to see Gold go down and break the Dec 2015 low of $1045.40 now when it is is much closer to making a new high, and the commodities are rallying on a weakened dollar that shows no signs of recovery.

      Same thing with silver breaking down through it’s Dec 2015 low of $13.62 for the exact same reasons. In addition almost all the Silver production for the larger Majors and mid-tiers would be severely crimped or stopped at $10 Silver. A few like Americas Silver and Silvercorp would survive as their AISC will average $1-$4 this year, but most producers would be screwed. A very unlikely scenario.

  3. On March 12, 2018 at 11:10 pm,
    Bulhus says:


  4. On March 12, 2018 at 11:12 pm,
    Bulhus says:


  5. On March 13, 2018 at 6:14 am,
    Excelsior says:

    Record Low Volatility in Precious Metals and What it Means

    March 12, 2018 Jordan Roy-Byrne CMT, MFTA

    “The past 18 months have been difficult for precious metals investors. If you had known Donald Trump would be elected and the US Dollar would soon begin a nearly 15% decline, you would have expected Gold to blow past its 2016 high. You would have been shocked to see the gold miners and junior gold stocks trading lower. Gold has fared okay but the gold stocks and Silver have lagged. As US equities have continued to power higher, precious metals have struggled to perform while volatility in the space has dwindled. Precious metals volatility has reached extremely low levels and this is a sign that a major move, while not necessarily imminent is surely on the horizon….”

    “The major markets within the precious metals sector are showing extremely low levels of long-term volatility. At somepoint this will change but we cannot know exactly when. Given our long-term bullish bias, our thinking is volatility could increase as Gold approaches resistance and then accelerate upon a break-out in Gold. Note that low volatility can last for a while and will not suddenly change overnight. It may slowly start to increase at first. While we cannot know when, we do know that extremely low volatility is present and can facilitate a major move over the next 12 to 24 months. With more time ahead before an increase in volatility and a potential break-out we continue to remain patient and accumulate the juniors we think have 500% return potential over the next 18-24 months.”

  6. On March 13, 2018 at 6:16 am,
    Excelsior says:

    (RRS.L) Randgold looks to the Americas in quest to diversify

    Zandi Shabalala – February 20, 2018

  7. On March 13, 2018 at 6:28 am,
    Excelsior says:

    Will Zinc Retain its Base Metals Crown in 2018?

    01 Mar 2018 – GFMS Team at Thomson Reuters

    • On March 13, 2018 at 6:30 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Also good fundamental data on the Nickel and Copper markets in that piece ^^

    • On March 13, 2018 at 7:02 am,
      Excelsior says:

      (TK) Tinka Resources remains one of my favorite Zinc/Silver/Tin stocks, but it has taken a serious beating here on the recent financing, and I’m curious where other chartists would look for support.

      The 50 day EMA is crossing down through the 200 day EMA which is typically bearish, and the MACD looks pretty bad, although very oversold now. The Slow Stochastics have stayed in embedded oversold territory, which shows how rough the pullback has been.

      Any thoughts on where one would put a support level for a bounce?

      • On March 13, 2018 at 7:04 am,
        Excelsior says:

        I’m tempted to buy more down at these levels, but was thinking between present pricing and that prior peak at $.415 may be the range.

      • On March 13, 2018 at 7:20 am,
        GH says:

        Hey Ex, here’s one I posted last year as it was finishing its upward surge.

        On the PPO indicator below the chart, a trip back down to the horizontal green line seems likely.

        • On March 13, 2018 at 7:40 am,
          GH says:

          That would take it down into the upper .30s…but as you say, lots of support at .415:

          • On March 13, 2018 at 7:44 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Thanks GH – I’m still mulling it over and may wait for a bit more of a pullback to add at some of the various levels outlined.

            People are not happy about this recent financing at $.48 (especially when they could have done one at $.48 without the 1/2 warrant).

            Otto weighed in on it today:

            Tinka: A bought deal at 48c

            “With a half warrant. Freakin idiots.”


          • On March 13, 2018 at 7:45 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Correction, they could have done one at $.60 without the warrant a while back, but now took a $.48 warrant with the financing.

            “He who hesitates is lost…”

          • On March 13, 2018 at 7:47 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Correction. I really must slow down and start proof reading. They took a $.48 Private Placement with a 1/2 warrant.

            Regardless, it was a crappy financing and they turned down a much better deal previously. Not very good negotiations from management.

          • On March 13, 2018 at 7:48 am,
            spanky says:

            I could rally at any time now, but I would probably wait for that RSI to hit oversold levels before taking a position.

          • On March 13, 2018 at 7:49 am,
            Excelsior says:

            This pretty much sums it up….


            Further thoughts on the Tinka Resources (TK.v) bought deal

            3/13/18 – Inca Kola News


          • On March 13, 2018 at 7:50 am,
            Excelsior says:

            good point on the RSI spanky.

          • On March 13, 2018 at 7:57 am,
            GH says:

            In that case, then a dip below 0.40 seems more likely.


          • On March 13, 2018 at 8:24 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Thanks GH – I’ll be watching for things to develop that way.

            Longer term I really like the resource and exploration results the last 2 years, and see TK VTT and CZX as some of the best takeover targets in the Zinc space.

            The $.48 Private Placement price should keep the price from falling too far below $.40 but looking at the charts technically a case could be made for a fall into the $.30s. There will be more drill news coming out followed by an economic study, so there are some nice fundamental drivers this year, but just based on shareprice movement – it’s been ugly.

          • On March 13, 2018 at 8:51 am,
            GH says:

            Ugly, but super predictable based on that chart. I posted it last year as a technical warning to someone…

          • On March 13, 2018 at 9:32 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Good call GH. If you posted that TK chart back then for me then I missed that advice.

            I had sold out of it for a profit back in November and didn’t buy back in until it had pulled back some. However, I am presently underwater on that first tranche back in, looking for a spot to average that position down since I believe in the company and their corporate strategy for 2018

  8. On March 13, 2018 at 6:38 am,
    Excelsior says:

    Oil down 1 percent on continued concerns over U.S. output

    Ayenat Mersie – March 11, 2018

    (Reuters) – “Oil prices fell on Monday as investors grappled with ongoing concerns over rising U.S. output and tight OPEC supply, while last week’s data showing speculators cut bets on oil suggested more selling could be seen…”

  9. On March 13, 2018 at 7:28 am,
    spanky says:

    The gold daily cycles have typically been running between 35-40 days. We are on day 22, so there are a few trading weeks left to find a final low. If this DC marks the intermediate cycle low, expect at 5-10 days of extreme selling pressure in the last couple of weeks of the cycle. Given all this, I would guess that this DC will find a low on or right around the April employment report. No clue as far as price targets but I would guess gold breaks below the 200 dma. Silver–who knows, but you have to expect the worst and hope for the best.

    Given all this, the intermediate cycle would be short if it finds its final low in the first week of April–only 16 weeks. The ICs for gold have been running around 28 weeks give or take. It’s possible to get short ICs, but it also certainly possible that the IC runs through May or even June., which means we will likely be making a lower low than the low we find at the next daily cycle low (presumably in late March/early April).

    • On March 13, 2018 at 8:47 am,
      GH says:

      An alternative read on the cycles would be that $1303 was a DCL at 53 days, right translated (peak day 29). Currently at day 60, or week 12, we have a long way to go to the timing band for the ICL, so predicting an extremely left translated intermediate cycle (peak week 6) is, at this point, premature. Alternatively, for example, it could echo the 3-daily-cycle intermediate cycle of early 2017.

      Which is right? I really don’t know. I’m no cycles expert. Just offering an alternative that seems equally or more probable. Gold has been making higher lows for 2 years, and the weekly and monthly charts are more bullish than bearish. So why should we expect such an extremely left translated intermediate cycle?

      • On March 13, 2018 at 9:49 am,
        spanky says:

        I agree. It is possible that we had a long daily cycle the last cycle at around 50 days. It is also possible that we still haven’t seen the peak of this IC. I do think the gold CoTs militate against that possibility though.

        Last I heard, GSavage thinks this will be a short IC that bottoms in the next few weeks. He has been dead on with his calls lately, so I am not about to disagree with him.

      • On March 13, 2018 at 9:52 am,
        spanky says:

        Gold has not been making only higher lows though. The IC that started in May 2016 was left translated and made a lower low.

        • On March 13, 2018 at 9:55 am,
          Excelsior says:

          Gold also just took out the 2017 high earlier in 2018 making another higher high.

          • On March 13, 2018 at 9:55 am,
            Excelsior says:

            The 2016 high in Gold of $1377.50 is the real prize though.

  10. On March 13, 2018 at 7:41 am,
    Excelsior says:


    by @nasdaq on March 13, 2018

    “Most digital currency trading platforms in the market were developed for retail investors, are unreliable during peak times, incompatible with institutional trading systems, vulnerable to cyber attacks, place limitations on withdrawals and often have delayed and unpredictable processing times.

    Currently, a majority of global trading volume in digital currencies occurs on unregulated or noncompliant exchanges, most of which do not accept U.S. customers. As a result, existing exchanges are not technically capable of handling the institutional demand for higher volume trades with Wall Street-level speed, security and compliance.

    According to the Financial Times, many top-tier high-frequency trading firms involved in digital currencies “are conducting many of their trades with tools such as email, Skype and phones.” SJMX will solve those challenges.

  11. On March 13, 2018 at 7:59 am,
    spanky says:

    The HUI is being sold on any tag of the 20dma. Clearly the path of least resistance is down for now. To me this is still shaping up very similarly to the drop into the December low. Extremely similar so far in fact, especially the momentum indicators on the daily charts like the 14d RSI, MACD and stochastics.

    • On March 13, 2018 at 8:02 am,
      spanky says:

      This similarity is a bit disconcerting because the drop into the December low (the second leg down) was about equal in magnitude to the drop from Oct to Nov (the first leg down).

      This time, the first leg down was very extreme and large (GDX going from about 25 to 21). If we match that first leg down on the second leg down, it’s going to get pretty nasty.

    • On March 13, 2018 at 8:27 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Like December, the metals are selling off before the FOMC rate hike announcement (like they have the last 4 times) and once again, the rally will likely kick off after the dust settles from the hike in late March. I don’t expect it to be a very big rally though, just another “Spring Fling”. After that we’ll see the summer doldrums, but in late summer will be an excellent time to load up before the rally from late Aug into Sept.

      • On March 13, 2018 at 8:32 am,
        spanky says:

        The latest I expect weakness to go is June. I think the Miners are primed for a massive rally that should start anytime between late March to late June.

        • On March 13, 2018 at 8:44 am,
          Excelsior says:

          Interesting. That’s more bullish than you usually are on the sector.

          That would be fine by me to have the sector take off ahead of schedule based on the normal seasonality trends.

          > Seasonality Chart for Gold over 30 years:

          • On March 13, 2018 at 8:47 am,
            Excelsior says:

            > Gold Futures – 20 Year Seasonality Chart ending 12/31/2015:


          • On March 13, 2018 at 9:07 am,
            spanky says:

            Trust me, I won’t believe it until I see it. I am basing the timing of this mostly off of the gold daily and intermediate cycles.

            When gold bottoms in the next 4-10 weeks, I don’t expect it to ever make a lower low.

          • On March 13, 2018 at 9:12 am,
            spanky says:

            Excuse me, the window is more like 4-16 weeks. That’s obviously a huge window of time.

          • On March 13, 2018 at 9:20 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Yes, that is a large window of time and fits in nicely with the seasonality of putting in the intermediate bottom in the Summer Doldrums.

  12. On March 13, 2018 at 8:28 am,
    spanky says:

    IPT.V looks like it has bottomed. It should be able to rally back to the downtrend line established by the 2011 and 2016 peaks, which could mean a double from here. Unlike Matthew, I expect a deep pullback from that level given how long IPT has spent consolidating at a low price. Also, in the short run, it is overbought and could easily pull back to the 20 WMA at any time.

    • On March 13, 2018 at 8:52 am,
      Matthew says:

      Is there a better performing silver stock since the December low?
      I think a few here have probably noticed that I was right to focus my attention on it rather than the many others that I also like. The opportunity was and is clear.
      I don’t know what you mean by “short run” but the daily chart is not overbought in my book and we could see .50 or higher before there’s a real pause or pullback.

      • On March 13, 2018 at 9:03 am,
        spanky says:

        Yes, .50 or just above would be the target of the inverse H&S.

        The caution in the sort run is coming mostly from where we are in the gold daily and intermediate cycles. Sure, it’s possible for IPT to on net rally into weakening gold and silver prices, but I don’t think it will be able to resist the pressure entirely.

      • On March 13, 2018 at 9:04 am,
        Excelsior says:

        Yes there were better performing Silver stocks than Impact Silver, since the Dec low.

        Blind Creek Resources, Silvercrest Metals, Santacruz Silver, and Klondike Silver all outperformed Impact since the Dec 12th low, but IPT still did very well.,BCK.V,SIL.V,DV.V,BHS.V,EXN.TO,AXR.TO,MMG.V,SCZ.V,KS.V&p=2&O=011000

        • On March 13, 2018 at 9:05 am,
          Excelsior says:

          This Bar chart showing that same time period since Dec 12th may be easier on the eyes:


          • On March 13, 2018 at 9:15 am,
            Excelsior says:

            While it started off as more a Silver stock and still has a lot of Silver and Lead I’d consider Silver Bull more of a Zinc stock now, but it also outperformed IPT out of the Dec bottom. So there are 5 Silver stocks that outperformed the bellweather.


          • On March 13, 2018 at 9:36 am,
            Excelsior says:

            I forgot about how well Hunt Mining has done as well as a small Silver/Gold producer and Silver/Gold explorer & developer. I wanted to get into that one but it ran away from me and hasn’t really pulled back much. So there are 6 other Silver stocks that outperformed IPT since the December bottom.


          • On March 13, 2018 at 1:43 pm,
            Matthew says:

            “More of a zinc stock” = not really a silver stock. We all know how well zinc producers have done recently. USA is another one.

          • On March 13, 2018 at 2:01 pm,
            Matthew says:

            Your chart also misses the low for IPT by two ticks (Dec. 8 was the low but I realize that they all can’t bottom on the same day).

          • On March 13, 2018 at 2:02 pm,
            Matthew says:

            And I’m sure you noticed that your chart did not include today’s action.

          • On March 13, 2018 at 2:40 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            When I posted those this morning I obviously couldn’t have included today’s action yet using stockcharts, and on a perf chart I could only pick 3 months (which moved it back to Dec 12th (the day before the rally in metals on Dec 13th) . However, they are now updated with today’s action where, Silverbull went down, but now Maya has outperformed.

            The point was that you asked a question: “Is there a better performing silver stock since the December low?” and the answer was yes. Even with today’s action many still out-performed IPT, but that doesn’t mean IPT didn’t perform well —

            The point is that IPT is simply not the only Silver stock that has good leverage or has been moving lately. I’m still a huge fan of Impact and have a larger position in it that in some of those others mentioned.

          • On March 13, 2018 at 3:01 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            * Updated chart: (Santacruz had a rough day, but it has been doing great since the Dec low, and will likely surprise the hell out of folks later this year if we get any assistance from higher metals prices)

            Maya & Hunt have been strong jr producers in the Silver space as well.


          • On March 13, 2018 at 3:25 pm,
            Matthew says:

            On an apples-to-apples basis, it looks like a couple did better. Dollar volume matters as does production and which metal is moving the stock. Very low volume is an obvious problem and
            explorers tend to move erratically unless they have significant resources in the ground. Production and/or significant resources give us leverage to silver that we can count on most of the time. TYP is an example of a gold junior that should not be compared to a $30M+ gold producer.
            Anyway, I asked because I don’t follow them all, so thanks. All things considered, I still think IPT is very hard to beat when we consider the risks along with the potential reward.
            For those like the bigger stuff, AG looks great:


            (I do not own AG and neither does anyone close to me.)

          • On March 13, 2018 at 3:44 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Good thoughts Matthew, and yes different metals or volumes or liquidity can affect things as well for sure, but I was just doing a blanket comparison across stocks that are Silver focused. IPT is one of the best and most leveraged, but even they are branching out more into gold exploration this season, and will be increasing their gold exposure.

            Personally I own Santacruz, Klondike Silver, and have owned Silvercrest off and on . I also have been following Hunt, Maya, Silver Bull, Bittercreek and few others very closely lately as potential swaps for other positions I hold.

            Even though Hunt and Maya are polymetallic (like most Silver miners) they are still predominantly Silver focused companies. Ironically many of the larger “Silver” producers like Hecla, Coeur, SSR, and Hochschild have a growing Gold or Copper focus – even First Majestic). I do own AG again and feel it will surprise investors once the San Dimas numbers from the Primero acquisition are factored in.

        • On March 13, 2018 at 1:40 pm,
          Matthew says:

          Of that four, only Santa Cruz is a producer and it is now behind IPT. $6M explorers are hardly comparable but $132M SilverCrest has been very impressive.

          • On March 13, 2018 at 2:42 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Maya is a producer and it has outperformed as well. Hunt is a producer and it has definitely outperformed Impact. Yes, Silvercrest has been impressive but it’s an explorer like Klondike Silver or Blind Creek.

          • On March 13, 2018 at 3:36 pm,
            Matthew says:

            Maya and Hunt were not in the four that you mentioned in the comment I was answering and SilverCrest got a pass from me because of its size, volume, and resources.

          • On March 13, 2018 at 3:44 pm,
            Matthew says:

            *Sorry, SilverCrest is not like Blind Creek or Klondike Silver (and that doesn’t mean they’re bad).

          • On March 13, 2018 at 3:46 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Maya and Hunt were in the thread above after the Silver Bull addition as the 3rd variation of the chart but I see now based on the time stamps where you answered that one first, and then went back up into the thread above.

            Regardless – once again the Silver miners (producers, developers, and explorers) have done far better than most even realize or give them credit for.

            Ever Upward!

          • On March 13, 2018 at 3:51 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            There was never a market cap qualifier put on the original question. The question was:

            “Is there a better performing silver stock since the December low? I think a few here have probably noticed that I was right to focus my attention on it rather than the many others that I also like.”


            Again, I was simply pointing out Silver stocks that actually had outperformed since the low on Dec 12th before the FOMC rate hike surge across the PM sector on Dec 13th.

            You replied that only SantaCruz was a Producer, so I pointed out that on the charts I had posted above that Maya and Hunt were also Silver producers.

            The point about Silvercrest, Bitterroot and Klondike Silver was that they were all Explorers (not Producers). Again, it was never stated that we were doing a marketcap comparison, we were discussing Silver stock and the different stages of Silver mining stocks.

          • On March 13, 2018 at 3:55 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            I don’t like just using Market Cap comparisons either as they can change drastically on rallies or pullbacks. I look at which stocks provide the best percentage gains, and try to own a few Producers, Developers, and Explorers to go down the risk curve. Obviously a more advanced Explorer with huge drill hits like Silvercrest is best in class compared to others, but my investing thesis is more focused around which companies can move the most on a rally or good news.

            Another Silver Explorer that I have a position in at present in Orex Minerals, and I believe it will outperform many of it’s peers as this years exploration program unfolds.

          • On March 13, 2018 at 4:02 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            I’m also still waiting on the marketplace to wake up to just how good the economics are on (ABRA) Abraplata. Most don’t even know about them or follow them yet, but their NPV, IRR, and payback period are very attractive.

          • On March 13, 2018 at 5:51 pm,
            Matthew says:

            I said “I was right to focus my attention on it rather than the many others that I also like” and that was correct. Aside from Alexco, the many others that I also like are not on your list. As for market caps, I thought comparisons that make sense were a given. From several angles, tiny explorers with tiny market caps just aren’t in the same league. In other words, I could not have considered buying them instead of IPT. The same is not true of the larger (better) ones that you mentioned.

          • On March 13, 2018 at 7:10 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Fair enough, but I believe you misunderstood my reply. I wasn’t comparing a producer to an explorer, and already mentioned I like investing in different stages or subsectors across a given commodity (in this case Silver miners). However, they are all “Silver stocks”.

            I was addressing your comment:
            “*Sorry, SilverCrest is not like Blind Creek or Klondike Silver”

            The point I was trying to make is that I don’t like comparing companies merely based on market caps in a given sub-sector like “Explorers”. Silvercrest has a larger market cap now due to the past success/management team/and exploration success, but if they had suddenly had community push-back, environmental concerns, or too much manganese/arsenic/mercury in their metallurgy, then that swollen market cap could come crashing down. Conversely the tiny market caps can easily swell to much larger market caps on a discovery, and that may move an explorer from the 10M range to 100M range suddenly, with a bonanza drill hit, or a neighboring property that suddenly takes off. We saw this happen about a dozen times last year with popular narratives on exploration stocks. If one strictly used market caps to gauge them, then they’d be devastated if the market cap was cut in half or sell too early if the explorer raced from 10M to 20M, but may not realize it was heading many multiples higher if they didn’t understand the fundamental drivers for why the stock was moving up/down.

            Personally, I’d rather look into the fundamentals of a company first, to see if there may be unappreciated valued drivers that could move a particular company with more torque or leverage to the upside when the marketplace catches on to what they have. So I’m much more interested in which stocks may be multi-baggers (which would radically change their market caps in a short time period) and look for companies that can grow the most on a percentage basis. I don’t really care what market cap they have as long as it can compound many times over, and this actually becomes exceedingly more difficult the larger they get, and why the Majors and largest Mid-tiers rarely outperform. From that standpoint, if we are looking at Jrs that can be 5-10-20 baggers then the larger companies are a less good comparison than the smaller Jrs. (however Coeur and First Majestic do have a lot of torque for larger companies – but companies like Fresnillo, Tahoe Res, SSR, Pan American aren’t going to be able to keep up with a Jr producer/developer/explorer when the sector really gets hot.

            What I’m trying to say is that market caps can change on a dime and grow 10 times, IF the fundamentals (asset, team, economics, location) are solid and the narrative around a company gets hot. Today’s $6M company is tomorrow’s $100M company if one positions early enough when they see an asset is misunderstood, unloved, or sees the early stage potential before the masses.

            I generally like to stick with a specific stage / sub-sector of mining for comparison (ie Producers, Developers, Explorers, Royalty companies, etc…) but if someone say which Copper/Gold/Silver/Zinc whatever companies outperformed or underperformed, then that is a more open-ended question, and it could mean across all stages or market caps == because it is a “performance-based” question. It is based on which percentage moves were the most/ least.

            That was the perspective I was coming in addressing the initial question, and I wasn’t trying to find an IPT substitute for you. I was simply addressing any Silver stocks that moved the most on percentage basis since that was the question.

            It was a fun exercise at the end of the day and it had me revisiting a number of other Silver stocks that never even entered into this discussion (over a dozen of which were so tiny they aren’t even available on stockcharts) 🙂

          • On March 13, 2018 at 10:04 pm,
            Matthew says:

            Ex, you sure own a lot of companies for someone who’s looking at fundamentals first for something others might have missed. Have you ever found a company (or chart) that you don’t like? Are there really that many diamonds in the rough? To me, no, but it will seem to have been the case eventually as huge amounts of dumb money flows into the sector and sends pigs flying. People love any story when a sector is rising.

            As for the tiny cap explorers that have more silver in their name than anywhere else, they still don’t compare to the real silver companies in the space and it should be obvious that I would be interested only in alternative plays when making comparisons. A guy who holds only the seniors could say the same thing to me about IPT based on the same argument and he’d also be right — BUT, he’d probably be less right since the risk differences between the tiniest companies and IPT are usually greater than those between the seniors and IPT.

            Maybe I’m weird but I like comparing companies that are as similar as possible and IPT has more in common with the bigger stuff than with a $6M explorer that only burns cash.

          • On March 13, 2018 at 10:41 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Yes I do likely have a larger portfolio than some, but there are compelling fundamental reasons behind each one of them first, before I’m ever interested. I find there to be a number of interesting companies operating in the space at this time, as most of the companies left are the survivors of the recent long and brutal bear market, and many have something of substance that has kept them around.

            Again, I never said explorers were a direct comparison to producers, or that this token $6M explorer example would equate to a mirror match peer group for Impact. That was never my point.

            I was simply comparing the PERCENTAGE moves in all Silver miners on what would have returned the biggest returns for the money invested since the December low. It wasn’t meant to be a point of contention or peer comparison on market cap.

            The point of investing is getting the best return on capital in a targeted time frame. It doesn’t matter what stage or market cap they have if an investor hits their objectives and out-sized returns, and making 40% or 80% is the same in my account and returns whether it is a producer, developer, or explorer and whether they are Micro cap or a Mid tier. None of that matters after the investment is sold and gain is booked anyway.

            We are talking about 2 different things, and have been throughout this discussion, but you keep circling back around to comparing IPT to a smaller explorer. Sorry, but I am not obsessed with comparing everything against IPT, nor just owning 1 Silver stock which is far too risky for my comfort. I

            PT is a great leveraged Jr Silver producer, and I’ve said I own it, have a large weighting in it, and think it is one of the best Jr Producers & Explorers to own. They are one of the smallest Silver producers in the sector (but they aren’t the highest grade, lowest cost, or best one by a landslide), however, they also have one of the most prospective exploration packages out there and that is one of their big value drivers at present.

            Much of their potential upside surprise will be through their Exploration, not because they are setting the market on fire with their production numbers. They will have very good leverage as silver prices rise back up into the $18-$20 area though, so they have near-term production optionality.

            Having said all that, IPT still has it’s own risks and warts, has higher costs than many producers, doesn’t have any NI 43-101 compliant resources (which keeps some investors and funds away), and they are not diversified across different jurisdictions, so there are still associated risks. I love the company buy I’m not going to put all my eggs in just 1 basket or just 2-3 baskets, and personally like holding a basket of the stocks that I feel will outperform the indexes and ETFs over a specific period of time. Different strokes for different folks.

          • On March 14, 2018 at 10:52 am,
            Matthew says:

            Ok Ex, enjoy!

          • On March 14, 2018 at 11:29 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Thanks! You as well.

    • On March 13, 2018 at 9:57 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Gold to Silver Ratio Reaching an Extreme

      March 12, 2018 – by bullionexchanges

  13. On March 13, 2018 at 8:51 am,
    Excelsior says:

    The Millennial Brain Trust of the Junior Resource Market
    Trevor Hall March 12, 2018

    “One of the greatest moments I had at this year’s PDAC conference was the short time I spent with three well respected investors in the junior resource market. In this podcast, I sit down with Nick “The Mining Book Guy,” Sean Kingsley and Fabi from “The Next Big Rush.”

    “For thirty minutes, I asked them questions about how mining companies can reach a younger investment audience and what those investors might look at to make better investment decisions. Each person has a unique approach and perspective into investing, but they do have one similarity…. they are all young themselves!”

    “We were able to talk junior resources competing with cryptocurrencies and marijuana for investment dollars, keeping young investors engaged, why resource companies should always have content ready, and what young investors should look for a junior miner.”

  14. On March 13, 2018 at 9:59 am,
    spanky says:

    AXU is forming a small bull flag on the daily. These often resolve by popping higher and then immediately reversing within days. Will this time be different?

    Also, they release earnings tomorrow, iirc. So literally anything is possible in terms of price action, up or down. So take the above with a grain of salt.

    • On March 13, 2018 at 10:01 am,
      Excelsior says:

      They are a developer spending money to sink the declines at Flame & Moth and Bermingham so they won’t have any earnings, (aside from their Environmental Mitigation Business which is quite profitable but often forgotten about or dismissed by resource investors).

      • On March 13, 2018 at 10:04 am,
        spanky says:

        yes, but they could still have bad or good news tomorrow, which could lead to a pop or drop.

        • On March 13, 2018 at 10:11 am,
          Excelsior says:

          Most of what they have put out for news since last year has been all good news, whether exploration success, moving forward with the production decision for Q4 2018, the revised (and much improved) streaming deal with Wheaton Precious Metals, or the fact that they are current doing mine development work to get both Flame & Moth and Bermingham ready.

          It is simply their quarterly report, and right now Silver has been lagging gold and rather boring for the last year, so AXU will just keep trending with the sector, but it will have a stellar 2nd half of this year, so positioning during weak periods this summer is the last good entry investors not positioned have to get in before the rise into production and higher metals prices in the latter part of the year.

  15. On March 13, 2018 at 10:05 am,
    spanky says:

    EXK, like IPT, arguably has an inverse H&S or is box type consolidation. If it breaks out to the upside, I would expect at least $3.50 to get hit.

    • On March 13, 2018 at 10:15 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Sounds like a fun ride.

      EXK finally has things back on track with the original 3 mines, and they’re bringing mine #4 into production, and finishing development work on mine #5 for next year, and exploring and expanding asset #6 for the following year.

  16. On March 13, 2018 at 10:28 am,
    spanky says:

    Arguably, GDX and $HUI put in inverted hammers on the weekly chart last week. Not perfectly textbook for sure, but it will be true until it isn’t. So far, it’s holding. GDX’s would be outstanding looking, but last week’s candle has a lower wick that is longer than ideal. Ideally, you would want to see a tiny or non existent lower wick.

  17. On March 13, 2018 at 1:30 pm,
    spanky says:

    The gold silver ratio hit 100 back in the early 1990s.

    You could basically say silver was in a bull market vs gold from about 1990 to 2011.

    Maybe gold is about to rip to new multidecade highs vs silver.

    • On March 13, 2018 at 3:05 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      anything is possible, but that is not very probable. Once the energy comes back in the sector from Gold taking out the 2016 peak, then institutional funds will come into the space, Silver will get a bid and play catch up, and then it will outperfrom Gold. Same things goes for most Silver miners outperforming the Gold miners – like we saw in 2009-2011 and in early 2016.

      Gold is more expensive when compared against Silver, Platinum, or most of the commodity space, but late 2018 – 2020 will change that tune….

Share Your Thoughts:

Name (required):
Email (required):
All comments must comply with our Terms of Use.