Chris Temple from The National Investor – Mon 14 May, 2018

Actions To Consider In A Directionless Market

Chris Temple joins me to share his thoughts on where investors should focus when dealing with these directionless markets. He outlines some story stocks as well as how high interest rates impact the overall valuations of markets. Moves in the currency markets and expectations on future central bank policy also are key.

Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show

Click here to visit Chris’s site for more market and company commentary.

Chris TempleCory Fleck
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  1. On May 14, 2018 at 2:08 pm,
    JohnK says:

    Thank-You Mr. temple for “Forcing God’s Hand” -Grace Halsell
    Every time I read a new book I am amazed at how little I really understand what is going on around me.This is one of those books that made me say WOW!

    • On May 14, 2018 at 6:11 pm,
      Temple says:

      You’re most welcome.

  2. On May 14, 2018 at 2:09 pm,
    JohnK says:

    Sorry Mr Temple. My time in typing class really shows how unproductive it was.

  3. On May 14, 2018 at 2:35 pm,
    JohnK says:

    The muscle memory is called wealth transfer. The slope of the curve was the gravy train.
    I spent all day Sunday posting about USURY. Let’s call it what it really is .

    • On May 14, 2018 at 2:44 pm,
      irishtony says:

      JohnK…..USURY = THEFT.

      • On May 14, 2018 at 2:50 pm,
        JohnK says:

        Houston , We have A problem.

        • On May 14, 2018 at 2:58 pm,
          irishtony says:

          JohnK….Houston , We have a MASSIVE problem………….

      • On May 14, 2018 at 3:29 pm,
        OOTB Jerry says:

        Usury is a JEWISH FRAUD……..plain and simple…….

      • On May 14, 2018 at 4:40 pm,
        Big Al says:

        Okay Mr. Irish, I disagree with you about Trump and I do agree with you that “USURY = THEFT”

        • On May 14, 2018 at 6:22 pm,
          bonzo barzini says:

          Al, you and the prophet Mohammed agree on usury. You are both wrong. You should study Ludwig von Mises on interest. Money has a time value. people will not lend to other people unless they are compensated for the time value of their money. That is what interest is.

          • On May 14, 2018 at 6:24 pm,
            bonzo barzini says:

            Not paying interest=theft.

          • On May 15, 2018 at 5:44 am,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            Check and see if Ludwig was a Jew…….. 🙂

          • On May 15, 2018 at 5:47 am,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            oops………..Early life

            Coat of arms of Ludwig von Mises’s great-grandfather, Mayer Rachmiel Mises, awarded upon his 1881 ennoblement by Franz Joseph I of Austria
            Ludwig von Mises was born to Jewish parents in the city of Lemberg, Galicia, Austria-Hungary (now Lviv, Ukraine). The family of his father Arthur Edler von Mises had been elevated to the Austrian nobility in the 19th century

          • On May 15, 2018 at 6:56 am,
            bonzo barzini says:

            Who care what von Mises’ religion was? He was the greatest economist ever.

          • On May 15, 2018 at 7:06 am,
            GH says:

            Thanks for that, Jerry.

            I haven’t yet read Mises. And I don’t have an answer for the conflict between
            1) the obvious problem of exponential growth in debt, an abstraction, that must be paid with real, tangible things that cannot grow exponentially;

            and 2) the time value of money–why would anyone lend if they couldn’t gain, to offset the risk and opportunity cost?

            I would be interested to learn how Muslim Sharia law banking has dealt with this conflict.

          • On May 15, 2018 at 7:16 am,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            When raised with a thought of Jewish tradition…….He may have been a great economist, but, part of the bondage thinking…is another thing……. 🙂

          • On May 15, 2018 at 7:18 am,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            Try to get some FREEDOM, from your thinking …..when one wants to put another person in BONDAGE…….Reap what you sow………. 🙂

          • On May 15, 2018 at 7:42 am,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            You are welcome…..GH…….

  4. On May 14, 2018 at 3:25 pm,
    OOTB Jerry says:

    ………911…., …some new info 12yrs of study…..

    • On May 14, 2018 at 3:26 pm,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      Silverstein ….did not have the funds to buy building No. 7……came from Israel ,

      • On May 14, 2018 at 3:28 pm,
        OOTB Jerry says:

        17 yrs on the war on terror ,……raping the tax payer………all fraud……

        • On May 14, 2018 at 3:32 pm,
          JohnK says:

          Tic Tic Tic………………………………………….

  5. On May 14, 2018 at 4:25 pm,
    Ebolan says:

    Did you boys find any humor in this??? I must admit, it made me chuckle…

    • On May 14, 2018 at 4:28 pm,
      Ebolan says:

      “No. We didn’t speak for a year and a half,” she answered just before the line of questioning turned to a 7-foot, 300-pound rabbit sculpture she also admitted taking.

      • On May 14, 2018 at 4:30 pm,
        Ebolan says:

        And if that didn’t make you laugh, this commenter’s post will…

        That’s probably not the only thing she faked in the bedroom.

    • On May 14, 2018 at 5:41 pm,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      I would say…….Bill G..needs to stick to bonds., because he sure does not know anything about art…….. LOL

      • On May 14, 2018 at 5:42 pm,
        OOTB Jerry says:

        Or, do not let him manage your art work……. 🙂

      • On May 14, 2018 at 5:44 pm,
        OOTB Jerry says:

        Or, If he had kept his wife happy, he would still have his art work…

      • On May 14, 2018 at 6:17 pm,
        Ebolan says:

        Bill certainly has some unique problems.

  6. On May 14, 2018 at 5:04 pm,
    Excelsior says:


    May 14, 2018

    • On May 14, 2018 at 5:05 pm,
      Excelsior says:


      May 09, 2018,

      • On May 14, 2018 at 5:06 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        (SVM) Silvercorp to Announce Year-End Results for Fiscal Year Ending March 31, 2018 on May 24

        • On May 14, 2018 at 5:07 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          (EXN) (EXLLF) Excellon Reports Results of Annual and Special Meeting of Shareholders
          Toronto, Ontario – May 11, 2018

          • On May 14, 2018 at 5:10 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            (BHS) (KXPLF) Bayhorse Clarifies Technical Disclosure On Bayhorse Silver Mine

            May 10, 2018


          • On May 14, 2018 at 5:10 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Lots of news poppin in the Silver miners lately.

          • On May 14, 2018 at 5:39 pm,
            JohnK says:

            Hi Shad:

            I traveled to Babbit, Mn to talk to the people about Polymet, Twin Metals.
            I tried to mainly talk to those who were associated with the tourism/resort industry as I figured they would be the ones that would be most opposed.
            I won’t name names, but I also talked with a gentlemen that was with the Polymet delegation seven years ago that went to Ely,Mn for public hearings.
            I was really impressed how the people understood their mining heritage and those in the tourism industry knew that mining was key to the future of their community.
            The sense I got was the opposition was coming from further north around Ely,Mn.
            I didn’t talk to one person that was opposed to the mines.
            The area has a long history of mining and the water is not polluted.
            The Polymet deposit is located between two existing taconite deposits.
            Driving up between Embarass,Mn and Babbit there was a sign along the road that said “We support mining”
            The thing with the sulfate levels they want to go from 200ppm to 10. Turns out if they pass this level existing water treatment plants in the towns in Mn would not be able to comply.
            I was told that the environmentalists were using mines in Utah as a reference.I found this interesting as this area provided all the iron ore that provided the Victory for WW2.
            I was also told that the environmentalists, if they couldn’t get their way, the tactic was to stall.
            Mr Temple’s take was spot on and there isn’t really much more than I can add.
            I will try to keep up as much as I can.

            In three weeks I’m off for Alaska and will get a chance to talk the locals about the Pebble project.

          • On May 14, 2018 at 6:32 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Thanks JohnK. That is a really good “boots on the ground” report on the perceptions of the local people in Babbit and that the friction is coming from north of Ely.

            Yes, in that article on monitoring the sulfates levels in the water it mentioned that many businesses and municipalities would not be able to get it down to 10ppm, so maybe the environmentalists have over-reached on this one and it will all be “water under the bridge” soon enough.

            One thing I’ve noticed after following Polymet for years is that they really have gone to great lengths to assure people of the rigorous environmental testing that they have already gone through, and they passed their Environmental Impact Study and got some of the tentative stages of permitting done now.

            I got nervous about the rice and temporarily sold out of PLM right after that discussion for a wash, but I’m considering layering back in during this summer if I can pull profits from other stocks.

            Much appreciated.

          • On May 14, 2018 at 6:34 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            It was also encouraging to hear that many of the townspeople remembered their mining heritage and how it was intertwined with their economic future.

          • On May 14, 2018 at 7:01 pm,
            JohnK says:

            To tell you the truth I was really surprised. I was also reminded that The U.S is severely constrained when it comes to domestic nickel production.
            I also went to the North Shore Taconite Mine north of Babbit.It was the Cliffs and North Shore Peter Mitchell Mine. The trucks that haul the ore can haul 420,000 lbs at one shot.The wheels all have individual electric motors that drive them instead of having a driveshaft.Not to far away is U.S Steel in Keewatin,Mn.
            To give you an idea about the push back in the boundry waters, there are 1100 lakes and only 22 of them allow motors. Twin Metals deposit is actually touching the lake at Babbit and there use to be a mine there. I believe it was LTV Mining.
            I was also told that the tourism numbers didn’t add up what the enviros presented.
            The legislature has their say now and I will post when I hear a decision either way.

          • On May 14, 2018 at 7:55 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Interesting about the land of ten thousand lakes, and how so few allow motorized vehicles now. Speaking of motors, that is wild how the wheels on the large ore hauling trucks have individual motors.

            Yeah it sounds like the Twin Metals project is far too close to the lakes then, and to Mr T’s point, won’t get built anytime soon with such strong environmental pushback. It make one wonder why Antofagasta bought Duluth Metals instead of Polymet?

            Polymet still has a good chance of moving forward, and they have milling infrastructure in place. It will be interesting to see how the legislature does with the project permitting from here.

  7. On May 14, 2018 at 7:12 pm,
    JohnK says:

    So I stopped at Mountain Iron which was the first site of the Iron Ore discovery in the Mesabi Iron Range.
    Turns out that this was a Finlander settlement to start.Anyways driving to the view area I saw two middle aged blondes sitting in their bathrobes in the front yard having coffee.
    Being single, my next thought was maybe I should check to see if their is some property for sale in the neighborhood.

    • On May 14, 2018 at 7:57 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      You could have just walked up in a bathrobe with a coffee and just asked if you could join them for a glorious day. 🙂

  8. On May 14, 2018 at 7:49 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    (CNX) (CLLXF) Callinex Announces Results of Initial Preliminary Economic Assessment that Generates a 34% IRR and a $230M NPV8% at the Nash Creek and Superjack Projects
    May 14, 2018

    * PEA Highlights:

    – Average annual production of 77M pounds of zinc, 15M pounds of lead and 437K ounces of silver over a ten year mine life;
    – Life of Mine undiscounted pre-tax net cash flow of C$483M (C$293M post-tax);
    – Pre-tax IRR of a 34.1% (25.2% post-tax) and a pre-tax NPV8% of C$230M (C$128M post-tax) with a payback period of 2.4 years (2.8 years post-tax);
    – LOM all-in sustaining costs (“AISC”) of C$0.37 per pound of zinc produced, net by-product credits;
    – Total pre-production capital costs of C$168 million (including 18% contingency);
    – Assumed metal prices of US$1.25 per lb of zinc, US$1.10 per lb of lead, US$17 per ounce of silver and a C$/US$ exchange rate of 0.77; and
    – Potential to materially enhance the economic return with additional drilling over the district-scale land package.”

  9. On May 14, 2018 at 9:08 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    (TML) (TSRMF) Treasury Metals Achieves Key Federal Permitting Milestone and Provides PFS Update

    May 14, 2018

    “We look forward to continuing to work with CEAA and all of the communities in the Dryden area as we progress towards a successful outcome of the Federal Environmental Assessment process for the Goliath Gold Project,” said Chris Stewart, Treasury’s President and Chief Executive Officer. “Today’s announcement marks an important step in the continual advancement of the mine permitting process. The project enhancements from the CEAA process have been incorporated into the EIS and we appreciate the effort, dedication, and support of CEAA, our consultants and our in-house technical team as we continue to advance the project towards a production decision.”

    • On May 15, 2018 at 3:24 am,
      JohnK says:

      I forgot this. It came from the local paper.
      A recent poll found that 44% of Minnesota were pro mining and 38% were opposed.
      In the 8th Congressional district 57% support and 28% oppose.
      54% say yes to mining in Superior National Forest,but outside the Boundary Waters.

      • On May 15, 2018 at 3:30 am,
        JohnK says:

        Another one was that the North Shore mine back hauled processed taconite on the train from SilverBay to build their roads at the mine instead of buying gravel.
        The roads aren’t quite paved with gold but at least their mineable.

        • On May 15, 2018 at 5:20 am,
          Excelsior says:

          Interesting that more people support mining than oppose it MN at present.

          Yes mineable taconite roads may be part of someones PEA in the future :-).

      • On May 15, 2018 at 6:23 am,
        Temple says:

        And guys…it needs to be understood that anything north/downhill of the Laurentian Divide — including Twin Metals — is going to be fought hard. Any of that real estate should be deemed a non-starter, I.M.O.

        Just had a very lengthy update of my whole 20-year interest in and involvement in that area in my latest issue, FWIW. If you guys can interest Cory, maybe we’ll discuss it one of these days.

        • On May 15, 2018 at 5:15 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          Thanks Mr T. I appreciate your knowledge of the area and agree that Twin Metals seems like a non-starter.

          I do hold out more optimism for Polymet though and with the infrastructure they already have in place, they have much better odds of making it to production.

          Whether we’ll be around to see that day is another story. 🙂

  10. On May 15, 2018 at 5:24 am,
    Excelsior says:

    (GRR) Golden Reign and (MLN) Marlin Gold Enter Into Non-Binding Letter of Intent to Combine Businesses

    May 15, 2018 /CNW/ –

    Golden Reign Resources Ltd., Marlin Gold Mining Ltd. and Sailfish Royalty Corp. are pleased to announce that they have entered into a non-binding letter of intent, together with Wexford Capital LP, whereby Golden Reign and Marlin will pursue a business combination of Golden Reign’s wholly-owned San Albino-Murra Property in Nueva Segovia, Nicaragua and Marlin’s La Trinidad Mine in Sinaloa, Mexico. Pursuant to the proposed transaction, Golden Reign plans to acquire all of the issued and outstanding shares of Marlin by way of plan of arrangement. Upon completion of the Proposed Transaction it is expected that the current shareholders and option holders of Marlin will own in aggregate approximately 45% of the shares of Golden Reign.”

    • On May 15, 2018 at 5:35 am,
      Excelsior says:

      This is the 5th merger I’ve been part of in 2018 and the year is still young!

      • On May 16, 2018 at 12:02 am,
        Excelsior says:

        It is interesting how hard Marlin was punished and how well Golden Reign did today, but it is a moot issue as it will be a combined company soon enough.

        “Upon completion of the Proposed Transaction it is expected that the current shareholders and option holders of Marlin will own in aggregate approximately 45% of the shares of Golden Reign and current non-Marlin Golden Reign shareholders will own approximately 55% of the shares.”

        “Marlin has engaged Red Cloud Klondike Strike Inc., as financial advisor and to arrange a sale of its Commonwealth silver and gold property…, which will extinguish certain of Marlin’s debts and liabilities; in addition, Marlin will distribute any additional proceeds from this sale as well as its current shareholdings in Golden Reign to Marlin’s shareholders”

  11. On May 15, 2018 at 5:37 am,
    Excelsior says:

    (IO) (INCAF)Inca One Gold production continues positive trend in April 2018

    May 15, 2018 /CNW/ –

    “INCA ONE GOLD CORP. is pleased to announce that gold production in April 2018 climbed to 1,224 ounces, an increase of 44% year-over-year, and an increase of 7% from the prior month of March 2018.”

    “Inca One’s supply of gold-bearing material for processing continued to increase at a healthy pace. Mineral received in April 2018 was 2,805 tonnes, or approximately 94 tonnes per day. This represents an increase of 58% on a year-over-year basis. Ore stockpiled for processing at the Chala One plant is currently sitting at approximately 1,800 tonnes.”

  12. On May 15, 2018 at 5:59 am,
    OOTB Jerry says:


    • On May 15, 2018 at 6:25 am,
      Temple says:

      It’s the cartel! Da boyzzz!!! SUPPRESSION…a conspiracy!!

      (Of course, nothing to do with interest rates and the dollar spiking, and just normal trading as a result.)

      • On May 15, 2018 at 6:32 am,
        OOTB Jerry says:

        I love 3% interest, with inflation running at 10%……… 🙂

        • On May 15, 2018 at 6:37 am,
          OOTB Jerry says:

          I figure everything in………
          Real estate taxes…up
          Home insurance…..up
          Food ……………..up
          Construction cost…up
          utility bills………..up
          Association bills….up

        • On May 15, 2018 at 6:43 am,
          Temple says:

          Back when I ate such garbage and used to allow my children to do the same I used the “Honey Nut Cheerios Index.”

          Prices kept going up…when that got too painful according to consumer research, more inexpensive filler CRAP was put in the ingredients. . .and the boxes made smaller (Shrinkflation as some have dubbed it.)

          • On May 15, 2018 at 7:33 am,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            By the looks of some of the obese kids……..they could use some shrink flation..

  13. On May 15, 2018 at 6:50 am,
    spanky says:

    Lucy;”I’m baaaaaaaaaaaaack…….”

    • On May 15, 2018 at 7:11 am,
      GH says:

      Nothing like a good kick in the nads to start out the day, eh?

      • On May 15, 2018 at 7:21 am,
        GH says:

        btw, I’m not teasing–I re-established a position in JNUG last week 😐

      • On May 15, 2018 at 8:03 am,
        spanky says:

        I stopped having sensation 5 or 6 years ago.

  14. On May 15, 2018 at 6:52 am,
    spanky says:

    H&s in gdx projects to 21.

  15. On May 15, 2018 at 7:35 am,
    Chartster says:

    Gold cuts through the 200 day like butter. It will be the first close below the 200 this year. The weekly chart ain’t pretty either..
    Here’s your sign..👇

    • On May 15, 2018 at 7:53 am,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      Dang…….looks like another battle at 1307 again……….

    • On May 15, 2018 at 8:08 am,
      spanky says:

      It didn’t cut through, it vaulted over it like pre-trans Bruce Jenner.

      • On May 15, 2018 at 8:22 am,
        OOTB Jerry says:

        Bruce…..forgot the main pole………he is no longer qualified for pole vaulting, in either gender……….. 🙂

        • On May 15, 2018 at 5:17 pm,
          Excelsior says:


  16. On May 15, 2018 at 7:59 am,
    spanky says:

    IPT has a nice H&S top that projects back down to the low at .25 if the neckline gives way.

  17. On May 15, 2018 at 8:07 am,
    spanky says:

    $silver has a H&S that projects down to about $14.80 if the neckline is broken, which let’s face, it should happen by tomorrow. Absolutely nothing but air underneath on the weekly chart. The monthly chart is poised for a potential breakdown as well (stochastics have plenty of room to run to the downside).

  18. On May 15, 2018 at 8:17 am,
    spanky says:

    Commodity complex (GCC) on the weekly has the potential to roll over hard. The monthly GCC chart has been tightening for 2 years. Would be hilarious if it begins another large leg down below 1979 levels–maybe it will get back down to pre-Nixon gold window closing levels.

    • On May 15, 2018 at 8:47 am,
      Matthew says:

      What you and Chartster don’t seem to notice is how well the miners are acting in the face of a $25+ plunge in gold.
      More sideways action seems more likely from here than a significant drop…

      • On May 15, 2018 at 9:04 am,
        GH says:

        Good point–I expected much worse from JNUG on the open.

      • On May 15, 2018 at 9:07 am,
        spanky says:

        A day does not a trend make. Plus, the miners are fighting a battle at the 50 day MA. it may take a little work to bust through lower.

        • On May 15, 2018 at 9:17 am,
          Matthew says:

          It doesn’t have to be a trend to be a bullish sign.

          • On May 15, 2018 at 9:20 am,
            spanky says:

            Well let’s see how they close. I am guessing they will close near their lows. In any event, there is absolutely no sense going long miners until $gold makes another swing low on the daily chart and preferably the weekly chart, which as of now looks to be a ways off.

          • On May 15, 2018 at 9:42 am,
            Matthew says:

            The metals matter but individual charts matter more. You would have said there was no reason to buy IPT at the December lows yet it more than doubled from there while silver went nowhere.
            I think BBB is now in a similar situation and have bought all recent dips including today’s.

          • On May 15, 2018 at 10:24 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Matthew – I’ve been accumulating Brixton at recent levels as well.

  19. On May 15, 2018 at 8:37 am,
    Chartster says:

    Hmmm, I don’t think so. Commodities and EMs (though hit lately) are looking like a breakout to the upside soon. They are hanging tough right now.
    PMs and the general markets look like a major wash is close or has started.

    • On May 15, 2018 at 8:42 am,
      spanky says:

      Looking at GCC’s weekly stochastics. Plenty of room to come down.

  20. On May 15, 2018 at 8:44 am,
    spanky says:

    This has got to be one of the safest shorts ever in the mining indexes right now. You are literally backtesting the neckline intraday. Very close stop.

  21. On May 15, 2018 at 8:49 am,
    Matthew says:
  22. On May 15, 2018 at 8:53 am,
    Matthew says:

    The XAU is down just .21% versus GLD at the moment…

    • On May 15, 2018 at 9:04 am,
      spanky says:

      Key phrase being “at the moment.”

      You are ever the optimist, I will give you that.

      At this point, I don’t think there is a snowballs chance that gold bottoms before the June FOMC. GDX:GLD is poised to roll over here on every timeframe. It may not be a straight line down, but it’s a possibility.

      • On May 15, 2018 at 9:19 am,
        Matthew says:

        I’d say I’m a realist. Most bears have been way too bearish since the December and February lows.

        • On May 15, 2018 at 9:30 am,
          spanky says:

          It takes time to make wine.

          Everyone and their mother is expecting metals and commodities to hold up here and for the 2 year consolidation zone to hold up, because I guess fair is fair after the Fed prints up $4trillion?

          • On May 15, 2018 at 10:02 am,
            Matthew says:

            From what I can tell, “everyone” is hoping more than expecting and bearish sentiment such as yours is more common.

          • On May 15, 2018 at 10:21 am,
            spanky says:

            I disagree. None of the people who follow commodities are expecting 1980-2000, but that’t s exactly how this is playing out. Everyone assume tightening bollingers in the metals means an imminent break out one way or the other. Look how that turned out during that 20 year period.

          • On May 15, 2018 at 10:37 am,
            Matthew says:

            Before the bear market low of two years ago, lots of people were expecting such a secular bear market. However, the bearishness I was referring to is much more short term.

            And no, it is not playing out anything like 1980-2000.

          • On May 15, 2018 at 10:39 am,
            spanky says:

            Well I just want to see a higher high in the mining indexes. It really isn’t too much to ask for, wouldn’t you say?

          • On May 15, 2018 at 5:21 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Summer doldrums pullback starting in May – normal seasonality.

            If seasonality is any guide then late Aug/Sept will start the impulse leg higher that can take Gold past the 2016 high of $1377.50.

            Gold did make a higher high in 2018 than it did in 2017 so that is more bullish than bearish.

          • On May 15, 2018 at 10:54 pm,
            Matthew says:

            Those who “sell in May and go away” this year are probably going to be sorry.

          • On May 16, 2018 at 1:27 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Many have been selling through late April and May already, and some of them dodged recent losses, so they dodged the short term pullback. I trimmed back a few of the Silvers in April and glad I did, but have been adding back in later last week and early this week into the weakness.

            Things are getting short-term oversold now, and the Daily Sentiment Index has dropped into the low 20’s. If it gets below that into the teens or below 10 on the DSI then that should mark the bottom and prepare for a rally.

            It would actually be bullish if Gold rallied during Summer doldrums, which can happen as the doldrums are typically whip saw directionless trading with a series of smaller rallies and pullbacks, but overall amount to sideways action.

            Regardless of what happens this summer, the late August going into September is seasonally bullish and I’d expect a rally that challenges the 2016 high of $1377.50 to be most likely during that window of the September rally.

            > Gold Futures – 20 Year Seasonality #Chart


          • On May 16, 2018 at 6:35 am,
            Matthew says:

            “Many have been selling in April…” – ok Ex, but “many” are always selling.

            My point appears to have been missed. The old saying refers to selling in May for seasonal reasons and not returning until after Labor Day. THOSE sellers will not be buyers of ANY May weakness as they are, if anything, part of the cause of it. They will be out of the market when the next rally begins even if it begins in a month.

            Those who sell strength and buy weakness without regard for what month or season it is are not who I am referring to.

          • On May 16, 2018 at 8:26 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            OK – well I do agree with that definition and your point of the Sell in May all the way to Labor Day mindset. Yes, they’ll miss the rally that is setting up.

            The DSI is getting pretty low in Gold, so the PMs are ready for a reversal soon.

  23. On May 15, 2018 at 9:16 am,
    spanky says:

    So much for rising rates and a tanking stock market supporting gold. Heads I win, tails you lose.

  24. On May 15, 2018 at 9:19 am,
    Chartster says:

    I doubt the mining stocks will get hit as hard as the metals. But looking at the overall condition of the herd, most of my favorites are going to get hit.

    I still think there is a good chance right now for the industrial metals. COPX is holding tough and maybe just maybe Tinka has just double bottomed.

  25. On May 15, 2018 at 9:25 am,
    GH says:

    GDXJ has multiple fork supports on the intraday charts:

  26. On May 15, 2018 at 9:37 am,
    spanky says:

    AXU will for sure get a weekly close below 1.32 soon and will most likely tag the 144 WMA at 1.27. I guess tha’s not really saying much now that it is in the 1.30’s.

    Below there is the 200/233 WMA around 1.07, which is absolutely a realistic target, especially on an intraweek spike down.

  27. On May 15, 2018 at 9:40 am,
    OOTB Jerry says:

    USD………93.09……….dollar strong today……….

  28. On May 15, 2018 at 9:41 am,
    spanky says:

    I suppose it’s theoretically possible for gold to bottom next week, but what are the chances ahead of the June FOMC? I would say zero. Everyone knows now that the 2-3 weeks ahead of one of these rate rises is open season on the metals. I would like to be wrong about this, I really would.

  29. On May 15, 2018 at 9:45 am,
    Chartster says:

    1265 on gold is a gimme. We will see what happens after that.

    • On May 15, 2018 at 9:50 am,
      spanky says:

      The trendline from the 2016 low is lining up perfectly with the 144 WMA now. That level is $1247.

    • On May 15, 2018 at 10:09 am,
      spanky says:

      There’s a triggered H&S on $ gold too that projects to $1240 or maybe a bit lower.

      • On May 15, 2018 at 11:33 am,
        Matthew says:

        I don’t think it will get there but the worst case is probably about 1255.

  30. On May 15, 2018 at 10:19 am,
    spanky says:

    Just as I suspected GDX weakening into the close.

    It’s pretty obvious the miners knew the rally out of the December ’17 low in gold was going nowhere. I expect $gold to catch down to the miners, which means we are going to get very close if not break below the December low in gold.

  31. On May 15, 2018 at 10:33 am,
    spanky says:

    I’ll bet GOEX slices right through $22 by EOW.

    • On May 15, 2018 at 12:33 pm,
      Temple says:

      That’s a beauty! I may use that one…

      Great minds think alike, GH…in one of my recent articles on the subject I used a photo of the “Silas” character from the Da Vinci Code. — The religious self-flagellation there as indicative of the fawning followers of “The Pied Pipers of the Gold Bug Echo Chamber” feeling more religious the more money they lose thanks to their religious leaders.

      • On May 16, 2018 at 5:48 am,
        GH says:

        I must admit I’m a bit of a goldbug myself, and I’ve definitely been flogged for it.

        I’m not a goldbug in the sense of being particular–I’ve done far better in natural gas and cannabis over the past 6 months. But I definitely want to go along for the ride on the next big move in precious metals mining stocks.

        • On May 16, 2018 at 9:00 am,
          b says:

          Generally I like to wait and pounce.
          This time, Ive pounced and Im waiting lol
          Wrong move but thats what I did.

          Anyway, I really like not giving a darn what happens, not really watching or reading news etc. I feel like Im on vacation. 😉

  32. On May 15, 2018 at 11:49 am,
    Tom says:

    long AXSM

  33. On May 15, 2018 at 1:09 pm,
    GH says:

    You can always count on the gold stocks to push the uncertainty to the max, it seems:

  34. On May 15, 2018 at 1:12 pm,
    GH says:

    Lots of interesting pot stocks.

    I like NUGS more than NUGT at the moment:

    I wish you would have told me about this one in November, b

    • On May 15, 2018 at 10:30 pm,
      b says:

      nugs? havnt heard of it, must be american.

      canopy growth might do sumtin soon, going onto the ny exchange Ive heard.
      aurora has bought up enough to be huge.

      Havnt look at either of them for awhile now tho.

      • On May 16, 2018 at 5:50 am,
        GH says:

        I was just joking, since you’ve been on top of the pot stocks.

        0.03 to 7.00 in six weeks would be fun.

      • On May 16, 2018 at 8:42 am,
        Wolfster says:

        Canntrust is the one to watch now b for ones that trade in Toronto ….

        • On May 16, 2018 at 9:13 am,
          b says:

          It could be wolf.

          I dont generally buy shares over a few cents, sometimes but not often.
          aurora was about 50 cents when I bought it, (49) it ran to about $14? pretty quick.
          When it came back to $4 I rebought and rode it up a buck or 2 but that was it for me.

          Now I want under 5cent PMs, I figure thats where the coin will be.
          But whadoIno?

  35. On May 15, 2018 at 2:17 pm,
    Ozibatla says:

    Finally something eventful in the gold market. Although, its not positive! Something had to give and it was a price fall… yet again! Damage control throughout the middle year? See how much follow through selling we get as the week unfurls.

    • On May 15, 2018 at 2:57 pm,
      Matthew says:

      Since I think this decline will end in days, not months, it is positive to me. The coming move up will be stronger due to the shaking out of weak hands and increased negative sentiment. Many will now sell all strength much more aggressively than they would’ve otherwise which will further rid the market of weak hands and strengthen the move up (as those sellers return very reluctantly and chase the market higher).

      The fact that it is mid May will add to the bears’ confidence and that is welcome, too.

      We’ll know soon if I’ve got it all wrong.

      • On May 15, 2018 at 3:25 pm,
        spanky says:

        A lot of damage can be inflicted in “days”. I’ll reiterate that I have a hard time gold bottoming before the June 12 FOMC. That’s a lot of days for damage to be wrought. Even if it is only 2 out of the 4 weeks that are down, that is plenty of time for serious pain.

      • On May 15, 2018 at 3:28 pm,
        Snowy says:

        There is too much political uncertainty right now. I think I still have a bullish lean on gold. What is making me more bullish is all these bears that just come out and claim their entire narrative is unfolding for a bigger drop.

        We do have rising treasury rates (though inflation seems to be picking up heavily if you listen to earnings calls). But I think political drama might heat up with North Korea, Iran, tariffs, Isreal, November US elections as well. I think we may be finally starting to see gold react to politics now.

        I agree that this feels like a few day decline, and NOT months

  36. On May 15, 2018 at 8:09 pm,
    Buzz says:

    So now they’re saying gold can’t get above 1300$. Where were they last week?

  37. On May 16, 2018 at 1:51 am,
    Excelsior says:

    Anglo American to spin off unit to encourage Platinum demand

    Reuters | about 16 hours ago

  38. On May 16, 2018 at 4:28 am,
    OOTB Jerry says:
    • On May 16, 2018 at 4:29 am,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      I Think a Trend will start, or has started…….lol

      • On May 16, 2018 at 9:15 am,
        b says:

        I would like a #boycott Israel trend.