John Rubino over at Dollar Collapse – Mon 24 Sep, 2018

M&A Activity Needed In The Metals Sector

John Rubino, Founder of DollarCollapse.com joins me today to recap a recent article he wrote highlighting some comments made by Marin Katusa. Marin pointed out that the major companies are in need of resources and to do this they will start acquiring exploration companies. This is correct however we need some bidding wars to start and a bit of urgency on the part of the majors. If this does not happen the takeouts will come from lower bases and in some part locking in losses for investors.

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Featuring:
John RubinoCory Fleck

Comments:
    • On September 24, 2018 at 1:52 pm,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      Everyone at the party has said they have no idea what Christine Blasey Ford is talking about, even her longtime friend Leland Ingham Keyser! Also potentially damaging to Blasey Ford’s claim is a theory presented Thursday by Ed Whelan, a former clerk to USSC Justice Antonin Scalia and currently president of the Ethics and Public Policy Center (EPPC), a conservative think tank. Using entirely circumstantial evidence which could certainly ruin the life of the man at the center of the new theory, Whelan suggested that Kavanaugh’s high school doppelgänger, Chris Garrett, may have in fact been responsible for Blasey Ford’s recollection of the alleged incident.

      • On September 24, 2018 at 1:53 pm,
        OOTB Jerry says:

        Christine’s Father Has Worked, and Still Works, For the CIA.
        In addition to the other info that has recently surfaced, an article from the site ImpiousDigest states that Christine’s father, Ralph G Blasey Jr. had worked for the CIA and was a vice president, at one time, for the National Savings and Trust “black budget bank” allegedly known for funding CIA deep state operations.

        • On September 24, 2018 at 1:54 pm,
          OOTB Jerry says:

          Linked to Dr. Blasey’s SVR file of known and/or suspected CIA operatives, this report notes, is that of her father Ralph G. Blasey Jr.—a proven CIA operative who, from June-1962 to January-1974, was the Vice President of National Savings and Trust of Washington, D.C.—a CIA black budget bank best known for being 100 paces from the White House, and whom, in 1998, was taken over by SunTrust Bank—whose majority share owner is the CIA-linked investment fund BlackRock.

          The importance of noting the CIA banking connections of Ralph G. Blasey Jr., this report explains, is due to the outbreak of what is now known as the “CIA Bank War”—and whose start of, in 1982, a CIA seized from publication news report (Declassified in Part-Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/09/05: CIA-RDP90-00965R00150010-7) describes as: “This is Wall Street, the center of the international banking system, a system on the edge of a crisis so severe that the Central Intelligence Agency is preparing drastic measures. Something must be done to avert the breakdown of the Free World’s monetary system.”

          • On September 24, 2018 at 1:56 pm,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            An intriguing in-depth new Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) report circulating in the Kremlin today states that a Stanford University Psychiatry Professor named Dr. Christine Blasey has become the latest centerpiece of a Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) plot to harm President Trump with her last-minute allegation, just days prior to US Senate confirmation, that Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh had attempted to sexually assault her over 30 years ago when they were teenage school children—while being kept from the American people about Dr. Blasey is that she currently oversees the CIA Undergraduate Internship Program Stanford University developed by the notorious CIA-connected Stanford University Psychiatric Professor Dr. Frederick T. Melges—who himself, in 1985, took into his care the homeless woman Lois Lang who assassinated CIA paymaster Nick Deak—and that afterwards saw the CIA’sblack operations monies being controlled by Ralph G. Blasey Jr.—who, not so mysteriously, just happens to be the father of Dr. Christine Blasey.

          • On September 24, 2018 at 1:57 pm,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            CONNECT THE DOTS………….really not that hard to believe……

  1. On September 24, 2018 at 2:00 pm,
    OOTB Jerry says:

    Remember BIG OWL…………Tomorrow ………he is going in to surgery ……..

    • On September 24, 2018 at 6:09 pm,
      Ebolan says:

      What are you talking about?

      • On September 24, 2018 at 6:39 pm,
        OOTB Jerry says:

        Big Owl is going in for some
        On September 17, 2018 at 9:52 pm,
        Al Korelin says:
        You can’t make up any of the stuff that is going on in the political arena. How about the President’s action today calling for disclosure of all pertinent material without any redactions. Did you ever think that you would see something like that in your lifetime.

        I will say this OOTB Jerry that action on the part of the President is exactly why I voted for him and supported him (a bit) financially.

        I think that no later than 2020 he will look like a hero.

        Here is an interesting story. I am having surgery next Tuesday called “robotic simple prostechtomy. I had to go into the doc’s office for a urine sample. (Imagine how they had to get that? ) I started talking with John (the nurse) and I said “I know you are not supposed to talk politics, but give me your opinion of Trump. His answer was really funny as he said, “No I can’t talk politics, but you should see my Donald Trump socks!”

        Reply to this comment

        • On September 24, 2018 at 6:40 pm,
          OOTB Jerry says:

          “robotic simple prostechtomy

          • On September 25, 2018 at 8:42 am,
            Ebolan says:

            “robotic simple prostechtomy

            Robots you say? Thank God, Mr. Big Al Korelin has never abused the robots…they will have the last laugh.

            https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hzrWANNrNvs

        • On September 24, 2018 at 6:49 pm,
          Ebolan says:

          Oh…sorry…I remember reading that but didn’t remember that it was happening tomorrow…I thought it was a ways off…my memory isn’t so good anymore…probably due to chronic lack of sleep.

          Anyway, do you remember what I always say about the Big Owl?

          • On September 24, 2018 at 6:51 pm,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            A Wise Owl is Better than Woody Wood Pecker…………..

          • On September 24, 2018 at 6:54 pm,
            Ebolan says:

            Well…er…not exactly.

            I always say Mr. Big Al Korelin is indestructible…after all, this is the guy who used to run marathons while drinking beer and smoking Marlboros so I bet he comes through it with flying colors.

          • On September 24, 2018 at 7:03 pm,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            Sorry, could not resist…..Owl will be fine…I am Praying ..The Lord is still needing to use him…the good Lord is in his presents..many prayers are going out tonite, ……Praying for complete healing, and surgery to be guided by the Power of the Lord……..In Jesus Name..

          • On September 24, 2018 at 10:08 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            This thread gave me a moment of pause worrying about the Big Owl and Woody, but then made me laugh, and gave me hope when Ebolan mentioned Big Al is indestructible. Agreed. 🙂

    • On September 25, 2018 at 9:35 am,
      Ebolan says:

      Hey Jerry, would you ever let a robot operate on you???

      How about this robot?

      https://youtu.be/1sNMHdaJx5c?t=26

      • On September 25, 2018 at 1:10 pm,
        OOTB Jerry says:

        EBO…….Wonder if the robot has cold hands……….lol

  2. On September 24, 2018 at 2:27 pm,
    OOTB Jerry says:

    60 yr. Cycle of FRAUD………… 4 Presidents …..their names need to be in the HALL OF SHAME
    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-09-24/four-disastrous-presidential-policies-are-destroying-nation

    • On September 24, 2018 at 2:29 pm,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      1. President Johnson’s expansion of the Vietnam War, 2. President Clinton’s deregulation of banking/finance in the early 1990s.3. President G.W. Bush’s Invasion of Iraq and the launch of Endless War ™.4. Presidents G.W. Bush and Obama’s rescue of predatory parasitic banks in 2008-09.

      • On September 24, 2018 at 2:30 pm,
        OOTB Jerry says:

        The crippling inequality and dysfunction plaguing our economy can be traced back to this abject and needless surrender of sovereignty to the financial sector.

        The nation is failing as a direct consequence of these four catastrophic policies, policies that undermined our economy and system of governance, that introduced the poisons of official fake news and propaganda, that institutionalized the suppression of dissent and institutionalized the fraud and embezzlement of “too big to fail” financialization.

      • On September 25, 2018 at 12:01 pm,
        GH says:

        Left out the 1965 Immigration and Nationality Act.

        Johnson was certainly among the worst of Presidents. Not surprising, being a coup president.

  3. On September 24, 2018 at 3:49 pm,
    OOTB Jerry says:
    • On September 24, 2018 at 3:50 pm,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      Additionally, Gallup reports forty-five percent of Americans now have a favorable view of the Republican Party, a nine-point gain from last September’s 36%. It is the party’s most positive image since it registered 47% in January 2011, shortly after taking control of the House in the 2010 midterm elections. Forty-four percent give the Democratic Party a favorable rating.

      • On September 24, 2018 at 3:52 pm,
        OOTB Jerry says:

        The parity in Republicans’ and Democrats’ favorable ratings marks a change from what has generally been the case since Barack Obama’s election as president in November 2008.

        Only one other time in the last decade has the Republican Party had a significantly higher score than the Democratic Party. That one exception came in November 2014, immediately after elections that saw Republicans capture control of the Senate and expand their majority in the House, when 42% rated the GOP favorably and 36% the Democrats.

        • On September 24, 2018 at 3:52 pm,
          OOTB Jerry says:

          As Bloomberg highlights, political independents have split from Democrats and grown more optimistic as the economy has forged ahead.

  4. On September 24, 2018 at 11:19 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    Regarding the Mergers & Acquisitions, we’ve actually seen a number of takeovers the last year or two, and we did just see a bidding war on Nevsun where Lundin’s hostile over was trumped by Zijin Mining’s higher offer.

    Barrick and Randgold just announced their merger over the weekend, which was a huge one for the M&A space.

    https://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/news/market-news/market-news-detail/0R22/13801102.html

    ____________________________________________

    Most takeovers are between 40-60% premiums in this kind of market, and maybe up to 100% premiums when we see a raging bull market. As is always the case, it really depends where an investor got positioned and what their specific cost basis is.

    Not all stocks get taken out at their all time highs, and that is more common at market tops. but most companies are trying to

    For example, I had traded Klondex for years, and made some good money in them in 2016 but sold out, and traded them once in 2017 during a small rally, but had been watching them sell off so hard, and following their story. I decided I was finally going to build a more permanent position in Klondex only about 2 weeks before Hecla came in and swooped them up, so I was thrilled at the quick profits, but sad that I hadn’t got fully positioned and wanted to ride it up to much higher levels over years. Still there were many longer term bagholders that were not made whole by that takeover, but that is the way the cookie crumbles….

    Conversely, we did just get finished seeing a Jr taken out at all time highs by a larger miner in South32’s takeover of Arizona Mining. That was a stellar run, and was the classic rise from exploration to development, and then a takeover at a premium and I’m not sure investors could have hoped for a better scenario on that run.

    Again, the Zijin Mining takeover of Nevsun, was at a fairly high valuation, and some think they over-payed for it, but it wasn’t chump change.

    Over the weekend we discussed Bonterra taking over Metanor, and Osisko taking over Beaufield heating things up in the Urban-Barry / Windfall Lake area play.

    Golden Reign is in the process of acquiring Marlin Gold, and Coeur is in the process of taking over Northern Empire. Richmont finally got taken out a little while back as well, and Monarques picked up some of their old mines & assets as a 3rd party. Integra Gold was also taken over by ElDorado at a 52% premium.

    Let’s also remember that that Black Fox was taken over by McEwen, San Dimas was acquired from Primero by First Majestic.

    The offer that Anaconda made to Maritime was a very fair premium, and they even raised the offer midway through, but those idiots at Maritime missed the boat on that one, so to John Rubino’s point in the editorial, at least a takeover gives investors a little excitement in a dead money Jr., however, the takeover premium often pales in comparison to where investors were hoping a stock would run.

    Great Panther just took over Beadell at around a 60% premium, and this shows that companies are on the hunt again.

    The acquisitions really are picking up, but mostly from the Mid-tiers, so it isn’t always the Majors doing the purchasing, and the Mid-tier producers are in better financial shape anyway. Part of the issue with the Majors is that most of them were way overpaying for assets in their takeovers in 2010 & 2011, so the fact that we aren’t seeing 100%+ takeovers right now is actually a good sign because we are nowhere close to peaking out in the PMs.

    Lastly, everyone is always parroting the exact same laundry list of things to look for in a takeover scenario (A-Team management, world class asset, lowest quartile costs, etc…. etc….). Here’s the reality though, most of those mergers listed above were not the world class Tier 1 assets (maybe Nevsun’s Serbian assets were). Most of the companies have low reserves, or were troubled financially, or wobbling and had skeletons in the closet.

    The reason that Klondex, or Metanor, or Beaufield, or Primero, or Beadell, or even Richmont were taken over was because another company felt they could acquire good (but not great) assets on the cheap, and run the companies better than marginal management teams in place prior, and realize a larger gain in valuation, than what the prior operator was getting.

    This point will be lost on most, but it is key to realize that not every company wants to pay top dollar for the best assets on the planet, and thus, it is during tough times that many companies can grow production, replace reserves, or diversify jurisdictions by purchasing a “fixer upper”.

    It is the same with real estate… Not everyone wants to buy a move-in ready mansion, and some prefer to buy a fixer upper, where they realize more of a profit on a percentage basis by putting lipstick on the pig and improving the landscaping, paint, cabinets, kitchen, flooring, or modernizing the home.

    The whole narrative of the major swooping in to buy the small explorer is mostly bar talk, and we don’t see deals like Kaminak / Goldcorp very often. It is FAR more common to see the Mid-tier producers picking off distressed assets that they can turn around, and that means these “Best of the Worst” companies can be just as lucrative to bottom fish.

    It is funny because very few celebrated the actual real-world takeovers we’ve seen over the last year or two because most were not hyped up explorers (but instead were boring developers and smaller producers). The investors in many of those companies were beat down bagholders that were not made whole by the 40-60% takeover offers, and had dreams of a much larger rebound, so this didn’t give investors collectively a warm and fuzzy feeling. They forget that acquiring companies want a good deal too, and honestly, now is the time to buy out companies at pennies on the dollar, not waiting until the sector is raging higher.

    Just some food for thought, to dispel the narrative that it always has to be a Major taking over a tiny exploration stock. There are few recent examples of that, and most of the action has been in distressed developers/producers that few were paying attention to. (ding, ding, ding….).

    • On September 24, 2018 at 11:38 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      I guess I could have just stated, “One man’s trash, is another man’s treasure.”

      • On September 25, 2018 at 5:00 am,
        Skeeta says:

        BDR’s Management over the last several years should be strung up by the nuts from a tall tree imo.
        Complete shareholder destruction.

        Nice lifestyle whilst you rort it.

        • On September 25, 2018 at 5:50 am,
          Excelsior says:

          Yes, the team at Beadell just drove their company into the ground, and for a producer doing over 100K ounces per year, they just couldn’t seem to get their economics in order. As a result BDR.AX has been a distressed stock, so it was opportunistic for Great Panther to come in and grab them, and hopefully they’ll do a better job with those assets.

          It is an odd pairing though, and I wouldn’t have expected a Mexican Silver Producer to take over a Brazilian Gold producer, but maybe GPR wanted to diversify out of Silver and Mexico. Who knows?

          Neither company was really knocking it out of the park on their producing assets, so in a way this reminds me of the Alio Gold takeover of Rye Patch, where it is more a merger of equals between 2 producers, where they create a larger mid-tier producer with a number of development & exploration projects in 2 main jurisdictions. (ALO) is Mexico & Nevada, and (GPR) is now Mexico & Brazil.

          Fun times!

  5. On September 25, 2018 at 7:49 am,
    Bonzo Barzini says:

    I think Pretium, Detour Gold, and New Gold should merge and produce 2 million oz gold per year before long.
    Get well Al!

  6. On September 25, 2018 at 10:32 am,
    Matthew says:

    IMPACT Silver Samples 32.8g/t Gold over 1.0 meter at Santa Teresa Gold-Copper Area
    http://pdf.reuters.com/htmlnews/htmlnews.asp?i=43059c3bf0e37541&u=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20180925:nCNW8scK0a

  7. On September 25, 2018 at 10:47 am,
    Matthew says:
  8. On September 25, 2018 at 10:48 am,
    Matthew says:
  9. On September 25, 2018 at 10:54 am,
    Matthew says:
  10. On September 25, 2018 at 11:42 am,
    Matthew says:

    UST 10 year yield:
    http://schrts.co/HfQ9Xd