Another Volatile Day For US Markets
Doc joins me today to share his thoughts on the US markets. They opened up down over 1% but garnered a buy throughout the day. This very well could be a longer-term top for the markets but we see this as being a more grinding top.
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Doc do you see one more test of gold falling below $1200 before it breaks out maybe in later 2019?
Paul, absolutely. I believe there’s a 90% chance you’ll see $1200-$1210 before the end of the year. I’ll tell you whether I think we hold that when we get back down to it.
USAS, IPT and AXU, three miners followed here, all putting in absolutely terrible looking reversal candles today. The next 3 days should be interesting.
Sorry this is not what a bottom looks like.
Thanks Spanks.
My thought too.
Yes, it’s Spanky…
On October 23, 2018 at 11:32 am,
JDSU says:
The Dow probably bottomed today.
Expect a breakout sometime in early 2019. The next leg up should be a doozy
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Oops
Doc, what is the NSRPF chart telling you? Got your ticket to the MI-OH St game?
BB, we’re close to an interim bottom on NSRPT. In fact, I’m getting ready to probably purchase some here pretty soon. I want to wait for another move down by gold soon and that is my conundrum. Do I wait for that or nibble a little now and purchase some more when gold moves down again.
Concerning the MI-OH st game. I haven’t purchased my ticket yet. Mr. Harbaugh has let me down too often. However, this team IMO has a better chance to win as regards his teams in the past.
If Purdue can trounce the Buckeyes then the Wolverinces have a good chance too.
Bonzo – check out the middle section on this editorial where Goldfinger and Bob M. are discussing Novo. Very good questions and cogent responses back about the best strategy forward in the Pilbara.
Bob Moriarty: I Think We’re Seeing The Start Of The Real Crash
by Ceo Technician (Goldfinger) 23 Oct, 2018
http://energyandgold.com/2018/10/23/bob-moriarty-i-think-were-seeing-the-start-of-the-real-crash/
ya gotta respect bob.
Agreed.
Ex – Thanks for your post on Novo under the David Erfle post. I agree that the stock probably won’t get down to 50 cents. The reason I decided to buy more around the 1.50 level strong support generated by the high reached in March 2014 at around 1.75 and the high reached in September 2016 before the big run up that started in July 2017. These two levels should act as a very strong support band. Also the 200 week moving average is currently at 1.63. The stock moved down to 1.50, but did not stay below 1.63 on a closing basis on both the weekly and daily charts. The day that it hit 1.50, it reversed hard and closed in the upper half of the candle on volume that we haven’t seen since the secondary peak in late May. That smells of a reversal candle to me. There was also a gap on the daily and weekly chart at the 1.50 that I had targeted long ago which has now been filled on at least an intraday/week basis. i also feel that a lot of stops were set at the 2.00 level which was the last low in January 2018. Fundamentally a lot of value has been created since the stock has been at these levels as pointed out by Goldfinger and Bob Moriarty. With all of this said I find the risk reward at the $1.5 level quite compelling.
FYI, the September 2016 high was around $1.45
Thanks, Excelsior. Very good to know Bob Moriarity still loves Novo. Seems like Newmont should make a takeover bid while Novo is under $2. Is Gary Goldberg asleep?
That would be great for Newmont, but the longer game is Kirkland Lake taking over Novo.
On a different continent, it is likely that Kirkland Lake will also take over Bonterra in a year or so.
KL will be a monster when all of those assets are rolled up under one company.
Interesting Doc that you are so confident we either get back to 1200 or below in gold. If that were to eventuate after the current rally, golds chances of then hitting and holding the 1280 by years end could well be in jeopardy and thus breaking the year on year uptrend from Dec 2015. Would this be very significant towards golds technical structure in the longer term?
OZ, if we break down below the recent lows and move lower, I don’t believe it well be a cascading event. As long as we don’t compromise the lower Bollinger Band on the monthly chart we’re still in good shape. If we do compromise it, I believe the move down will be slow and limited. My line in the sand for gold is the 200 month simple moving average which currently is about 994.26. The MACD of the monthly chart points toward the odds of November being an up month yet for gold. I’m not concerned at all that we break down significantly in the near term. Going forward, keep your eyes on the 200 month SMA. That in my view is a very important support for gold.
Cheers Doc! Surely that 994 figure doesnt eventuate? Who knows I suppose in these interesting times.
994 is not in the script but it could have been if the 2011 top had been much more like the 1980 top.
So we’re going to have to settle for the tests of the 144 month moving averages. In 2015, gold tested the 144 month EMA for the first time in 12 years and dipped below it for 3 consecutive months. In 2018, it finally got around to testing the 144 month SMA (for the first time in 15 years) and dipped below it for 3 consecutive months.
Gold would have to drop $24 from here in the next six sessions to avoid closing the month above the 144 month SMA.
The monthly RSI(14) has bullishly remained above the 40 level since January, 2016 (because the cyclical bear is over)…
http://schrts.co/xUB3zp
Since you probably can’t view the above monthly chart, here’s a weekly one using the 600 week EMA and SMA. The picture is similar to the one above and you can see that gold is above the 600 week SMA for the first time since July. Let’s see if it can finish the week that way (the odds look good):
http://schrts.co/rWzuC9
Looks like a big ol’ bear trap to me…
http://schrts.co/JA25a5
Cheers for the links Matthew. Yeh a close above the 600 week SMA would be good. Still wouldnt place gold out of the woods but one step at a time I suppose.
Off topic: Soon as Obama finishes taking credit for the economy (stupid), he should go back to Hawaii & play Hulu Hoops
Obama and his gang should be in prison for spying on the Trump campaign.
Barrick-Randgold merger could lead to $5B asset sales, BMO analysts say
Oct. 23, 2018
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3400055-barrick-randgold-merger-lead-5b-asset-sales-bmo-analysts-say
Looks like ABX had a reversal candle today. Its right in the area that both Morris Hubbard and Avi Gilburt expected a top. Avi is expecting an inverse head and shoulders pattern with the most recent low being the head. On that basis the stock could fall to as low as $11 dollars.
A not so good end to yesterdays trade for gold followed up by another average start to today. That 200 week MA is posing as good resistance at the moment
Silver miners leading the way down.
GPL down 4.7% today and looks like it is in freefall on the weekly chart.
The giant head and shoulders pattern on the weekly chart projects down to under .20.