General Market Commentary – Sun 6 Jan, 2019

When Looking At The US Markets You Cannot Ignore China

Valentine Schmidt, Business Editor at the Epoch Times shares his thoughts on the overall health of the US markets. You cannot ignore what is happening over in China as well as the economies are closely connected.

Click here to visit the Epoch Times website.

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Comments:
  1. On January 6, 2019 at 1:22 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    Dow Drops More Than 600 Points on Apple Warning, China Fears

    TheStreet Staff – Jan 3, 2019

    “While we anticipated some challenges in key emerging markets, we did not foresee the magnitude of the economic deceleration, particularly in Greater China,” Cook said. “In fact, most of our revenue shortfall to our guidance, and over 100 percent of our year-over-year worldwide revenue decline, occurred in Greater China across iPhone, Mac and iPad.”

    “Cook pinned the weaker iPhone demand in China on several factors, including a slowing economy worsened by “rising trade tensions with the United States” and high prices tied to the strength of the U.S. dollar.”

    “Additionally, Kevin Hassett, an economic adviser to the Trump administration, told CNN Thursday that the slowdown in China will hurt the bottom lines of numerous domestic companies.”

    “There are a heck of a lot of U.S. companies that have a lot of sales in China that are basically going to be watching their earnings be downgraded… until we get a deal with China. It’s not going to be just Apple,” Hassett said.

    https://www.thestreet.com/markets/dow-sinks-after-revenue-warning-from-apple-14823393

    • On January 6, 2019 at 1:27 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      The China Story That Is Far Bigger Than Apple

      A tectonic shift in the country’s economy has largely gone unnoticed by investors

      By Nathaniel Taplin – Jan. 4, 2019

      “China’s economy is slowing so much it even tripped up Apple, while the clock ticks on the 90-day cease-fire in the U.S. trade feud. Less noticed amid the headlines is a major shift in the Chinese economy that is quietly beginning to upend the global financial system.”

      “China, long the world’s heavyweight saver and a huge buyer of foreign assets like Treasuries, is now a big spender—a trend the current cyclical growth dip is unlikely to permanently derail. In early 2018, China got more of its growth from consumption than the U.S…”

      https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-china-story-that-is-far-bigger-than-apple-11546598005

      • On January 6, 2019 at 1:30 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        China Pours $218 Billion Into the Economy as Growth Slows

        By Alexandra Stevenson – Jan. 4, 2019

        “The People’s Bank of China on Friday said it would cut the amount of cash that banks must hold as reserves by one percentage point. The move will essentially free up 1.5 trillion Chinese renminbi, or about $218 billion, for an economy experiencing weaker factory output and consumer confidence while it weathers a trade war with the United States.”

        “The cut is not unusual for China’s central bank, but it comes amid uncertainty about how Beijing will manage slower growth. China’s slowdown has contributed to shaky global financial markets. On Wednesday, underscoring the broad impact, Apple unexpectedly cut its sales forecast for its latest quarter, citing disappointing iPhone sales in China, once one of its most vibrant markets.”

        “Chinese officials pledged last month to step up support of the economy, and they are facing new urgency, said Mark Williams, chief Asia economist for Capital Economics…”

        https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/04/business/china-economy-central-bank.html

        • On January 6, 2019 at 7:08 pm,
          Dick Tracy says:

          China is becoming a military superpower, China wants The Island Of Formosa back (present day Taiwan). If their economy keeps deteriorating The Chinese will take back Taiwan. The US is in no position to have another war especially with China. The US has treaties with Taiwan, America can’t defeat The Taliban, China and the rest of The World know this, but America still thinks they call the shots. What a terrible position The US has gotten itself in, financially and militarily. DT

    • On January 6, 2019 at 2:39 pm,
      Big Al says:

      I would not agree with her tax policy as I understand it. Paying $730K on a million dollars and leaving the payee $270 seems a bit tough. I do however have a lot of very successful colleagues who live in Canada who pay close to that. So what do they do? They simply make more money if they can. (The key here is “if they can”)

      Before I can intelligently comment I would have to see the whole picture from an income of $100, and up. Can anybody help me on this so that I can continue on the comments?

      • On January 6, 2019 at 4:45 pm,
        CFS says:

        I am not an economist, never having been significantly personally motivated by money.

        But I would point out the article on Ocasio-Cortez appears deceptive…..it attempts to show no correlation between taxation and growth rate.
        In using as a proxy for taxation the top bracket, the article is highly deceptive.

        If on uses {total tax collected}/ GDP and plots this against growth rate one reaches a substantially different result.

        Graphs I remember seeing for various European countries show quite a distinct time-delayed inverse correlation. I do not have graphing capability on my home computer, but do not believe the US population to be substantially different from Europeans.

  2. On January 6, 2019 at 2:07 pm,
    CFS says:

    I am always intrigued by ideology in formation of beliefs, compared with historical actual precedence consequential outcomes.

    • On January 6, 2019 at 2:31 pm,
      Big Al says:

      Historical and actual outcomes are certainly important inputs, Professor. But, don’t forget my “prettiest baby in the nursery theory” when it comes to the founders of many of the beliefs!

    • On January 6, 2019 at 4:26 pm,
      CFS says:

      I have not come to a final conclusion on Pretty Baby, Ocasio-Cortez yet.

      On face she seems stupid to me.
      But this conflicts with my belief hat people that stupid could not be elected to
      Congress…..they have to be just misguided intelligent people.
      I assume, therefore she must be like Obama….a brilliant Devil incarnate with a golden tongue and without a conscience.
      Or maybe I just over-estimate the intelligence of New York voters of whom I have already a very low opinion.

      • On January 6, 2019 at 4:43 pm,
        Big Al says:

        Her constituents certainly do not represent all New York voters.

        • On January 6, 2019 at 5:16 pm,
          Matthew says:

          That is correct, Al. Her constituents represent only the most ignorant of New York voters.

          • On January 6, 2019 at 5:26 pm,
            Big Al says:

            If that is true, I am certainly not surprised and that is why I brought it up.

  3. On January 6, 2019 at 4:15 pm,
    CFS says:

    It is becoming increasingly clear that Justice John Roberts is completely under the blackmail control of the deep state/CIA
    Corruption is so extensive it pervades so much.
    (Roberts appoints FISA court Judges.)

  4. On January 6, 2019 at 5:12 pm,
    Ebolan says:

    Full-on socialism is coming boys…and you can bet the corrupt MSM hopes Butto O’Dork will be the next Obammy.

    Green Socialism Gaining Endorsements
    https://www.lewrockwell.com/lrc-blog/green-socialism-gaining-endorsements/

    • On January 6, 2019 at 5:20 pm,
      GH says:

      Did you see the recent interview with Roy Sebag that Bob Moriarty recommended as a must listen? Roy’s very sharp. Says when he talks with people from elite economics programs, they’re socialists. He expects that a Universal Basic Income is in our future.

      I imagine this plays into the ‘technocracy’ notion that Patrick Wood discussed with Richard Grove. Eventually no more markets. Instead everyone is allocated a certain amount of purchasing power based on energy allocation. Brave new world.

      • On January 6, 2019 at 6:06 pm,
        OOTB Jerry says:

        If, the commies get their way……..everyone is going down the tubes……

      • On January 6, 2019 at 6:46 pm,
        Ebolan says:

        Do you have a link for the interview? I did not see it.

        I saw this article on Bob’s site http://www.321gold.com/editorials/guest/darcy010219.html and it is a must read along with all the linked articles.

        At least I thought I saw the link to that article on Bob’s site. Now I don’t see the link to it but the article is still there. Maybe I saw the link to the article on b’s blog. 🙂

        • On January 6, 2019 at 8:39 pm,
          GH says:

          https://app.hedgeye.com/insights/72137-the-intelligent-investor-s-guide-to-gold-central-bank-manipulation

          When Bob says ‘must listen’, I listen, and he hasn’t disappointed me yet.

          • On January 7, 2019 at 8:28 am,
            Ebolan says:

            All great stuff. Thanks, GH.

          • On January 7, 2019 at 9:49 am,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            ditto…..I apologize , I post below, did not see your’s first……..

          • On January 7, 2019 at 9:51 am,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            yours….not your’s

        • On January 6, 2019 at 8:48 pm,
          GH says:

          And the Patrick Woods interview, in case you missed my post the other day. This is a deep dive (3 hrs total), but quite relevant, I would say, to big-picture thinking about how to invest and prepare for the future.

          https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wNkDiBOO4H0

          Once again I will plug Richard Grove, who does outstanding work in helping elucidate the big picture.

      • On January 6, 2019 at 6:49 pm,
        Ebolan says:

        And this is not being reported in the MSM in the US. It is really heating up in France.

        https://theantimedia.com/france-yellow-vest-movement/

        • On January 7, 2019 at 8:01 am,
          OOTB Jerry says:

          I said people are ticked………the controllers have lost control….they just do not realize it yet…..

          • On January 7, 2019 at 8:03 am,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            Govt officials……politicians are not going to be safe………jmo

  5. On January 6, 2019 at 5:17 pm,
    GH says:

    Hey Jerry,

    I was out in the boonies for the weekend, but saw your comments on platinum vs palladium the other day. So you may like this chart:

    http://schrts.co/5745Mq

    Since 1980 palladium pretty much only exceeded platinum in price during 2000 and 2001, and then for the last year+. Over most of that time frame platinum fluctuated between 2.5x and 5x more expensive than palladium.

    Unless something has really changed, this is definitely a time to expect either palladium will fall or platinum will rise, or both.

    I’m not a spread trader, but I’d guess short palladium long platinum is a high odds long-term speculation here.

    • On January 6, 2019 at 5:24 pm,
      GH says:

      Oops, meant to make that a weekly chart:

      http://schrts.co/nwN1gX

    • On January 6, 2019 at 5:25 pm,
      GH says:

      I’m not so sure about platinum versus silver. I lean toward silver doing better in coming years.

      http://schrts.co/DwSSSs

      • On January 6, 2019 at 6:04 pm,
        OOTB Jerry says:

        I would have to agree with you concerning silver……

      • On January 7, 2019 at 9:06 am,
        Matthew says:

        Platinum is historically cheap but silver will have no trouble beating it in the months and years straight ahead.

      • On January 7, 2019 at 9:09 am,
        Matthew says:

        Short term, platinum might soon do some catching up…
        Silver priced in platinum:
        http://schrts.co/EJUWj8

      • On January 7, 2019 at 11:56 am,
        OOTB Jerry says:

        All of like minds…………..silver will be the moon shot……….

    • On January 6, 2019 at 5:52 pm,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      GH………thanks for the post………

  6. On January 7, 2019 at 6:56 am,
    OOTB Jerry says:

    Hey Professor ………here is one for you on debt……..
    try 22 min mark…….GOLDMONEY
    https://app.hedgeye.com/insights/72137-the-intelligent-investor-s-guide-to-gold-central-bank-manipulation

    • On January 7, 2019 at 7:11 am,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      start about 21:45. so you do not miss the comment…….

      • On January 7, 2019 at 8:40 am,
        irishtony says:

        Jerry..Thanks for that link. Its a great interview, everyone should watch it.

        • On January 7, 2019 at 9:43 am,
          OOTB Jerry says:

          thanks………but, I see some others have posted above…..sorry guys

  7. On January 7, 2019 at 7:02 am,
    snowbird says:

    Christ is Born. Greetings from the Orthodox Faithful. Thanks for you help yesterday Jerry.

    • On January 7, 2019 at 7:12 am,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      Glad to be of assistance………and you are welcome, and thanks for the thought.

  8. On January 7, 2019 at 7:24 am,
    snowbird says:

    I was thinking about things again and I know your on board with President Trump.
    I think the Trump supporters find themselves in the same position as the Blacks did with Obama. How did that hope and change work out for you? This is way bigger than President Trump.
    You are always spot on with your Jubilee posts. We both know this is the only real answer.

    • On January 7, 2019 at 7:44 am,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      THanks again for your compliment…….

  9. On January 7, 2019 at 7:34 am,
    snowbird says:

    I am at a total loss. I subscribed to wired magazine only to end up cancelling my subscription and writing them a letter telling them I wouldn’t wipe my ass with their magazine if it was the last thing in the out house. I can spot propaganda and have developed a keen eye as such.
    In my search for truthful news, I did a paid subscription to a news service. Last night listening to the news, one of their China reporters quotes Wired Magazine.
    I am in total disbelief how far the battle for our conscious minds has gone.

    • On January 7, 2019 at 7:46 am,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      Stay grounded,….keep it simple………jmo

    • On January 7, 2019 at 8:29 am,
      Ebolan says:

      If you want unbiased news maybe you should try b’s blog 🙂

      • On January 7, 2019 at 9:23 am,
        snowbird says:

        Few people can make me laugh anymore. Thanks for keeping it real.

  10. On January 7, 2019 at 7:46 am,
    snowbird says:

    But don’t be fooled by the radio
    The TV or the magazines
    They show you photographs of how your life should be
    But they’re just someone else’s fantasy
    So if you think your life is complete confusion
    Because you never win the game
    Just remember that it’s a grand illusion
    And deep inside we’re all the same

    • On January 7, 2019 at 9:28 am,
      snowbird says:

      Jerry: When I say thanks,I’m speaking for
      Veterans for 9/11 Truth
      Pilots for 9/11 Truth
      Architects and Engineers for 9/11 Truth.
      The Truth is God and God is the Truth.

      • On January 7, 2019 at 9:45 am,
        OOTB Jerry says:

        Dang…..that is a large crowd……..appreciate , I am speechless….really…

        • On January 7, 2019 at 10:15 am,
          Ebolan says:

          Hope you are in Florida…

          Indiana Grocery Store Can’t Process Food Stamp Payments Due To Govt. Shutdown
          https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-01-07/indiana-grocery-store-cant-process-food-stamp-payments-due-govt-shutdown

          • On January 7, 2019 at 11:23 am,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            SNAP cards will be going for 50 cents on the dollar …..in the hood…….

          • On January 7, 2019 at 11:24 am,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            Plenty of food at the chapels…….steeples and church food banks……

          • On January 7, 2019 at 11:26 am,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            People are going to eat, and the shot gun approach works well, if all fails……..

          • On January 7, 2019 at 11:28 am,
            OOTB Jerry says:
          • On January 7, 2019 at 11:29 am,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            Johnson and Lady Bird would be proud……….

          • On January 7, 2019 at 11:31 am,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            THe extremes should not be happening………..THANKS FED FRAUDSTERS…….

          • On January 7, 2019 at 11:32 am,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            Bezo , can feed um……….and Zucky, and Gates, Buffet…….

          • On January 7, 2019 at 11:33 am,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            Nancy and Chuck, should cough up……the money they stole from insider trading….

          • On January 7, 2019 at 11:35 am,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            Dang…..I am on a Rant……..and that is not Trading Advice…….. 🙂

          • On January 7, 2019 at 11:49 am,
            Ebolan says:

            Bezo , can feed um……….and Zucky, and Gates, Buffet…….

            Are you saying they will have a buffet of Buffet? 🙂

          • On January 7, 2019 at 11:50 am,
            Ebolan says:

            Sooner or later we will see what happens when the bread and circuses run out…may happen sooner than later.

          • On January 7, 2019 at 11:53 am,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            Maybe a Pizza Gate um……….Bezo, and clan…….that is…..

  11. On January 7, 2019 at 8:32 am,
    Excelsior says:

    Goldman Sachs slashes 2019 oil price forecast amid oversupply concerns
    Sam Meredith – 3 Hours Ago

    “The investment bank now expects international benchmark Brent crude to average $62.50 a barrel this year, down from a previous forecast of $70.”

    “Meanwhile, U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is expected to average $55.50 in 2019, down from a prior estimate of $64.50, the investment bank said in a research note published Sunday.”

    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/07/oil-prices-goldman-sachs-slashes-2019-forecast-amid-oversupply-fears.html

    • On January 7, 2019 at 9:35 am,
      snowbird says:

      Goldman has no crystal ball. The Saudis run the show and they always have.
      Kissinger was and still is a Harvard Pedo and I won’t comment on Bush Sr.
      Jared got his loan from the Qataris, I wouldn’t expect to much from the Saudi’s.
      MBS= More Bull Sh*t

      • On January 7, 2019 at 4:33 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        Your post was all speculation, garbage, and the only BS I see around here.

  12. On January 7, 2019 at 9:00 am,
    Matthew says:

    The Canadian dollar is pulling back from some fork resistance at the moment but looks strong enough to get through it soon…
    http://schrts.co/f2czAQ

    • On January 7, 2019 at 9:31 am,
      snowbird says:

      Canada has no Gold and Fidel Jr is weak. Canada is soon to become our Muslim neighbors to the North.

      • On January 7, 2019 at 4:34 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        Spoken with true intolerance.

        Are you just going to start trolling all comments now JohnK/Snowbird?

  13. On January 7, 2019 at 11:55 am,
    Ebolan says:
    • On January 7, 2019 at 11:59 am,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      That be the ALL SEEING EYE……..India oddy……..