Chris Temple from The National Investor – Tue 12 Feb, 2019

The Signs Of Weak Global Growth and Money Flowing Into The US

Chris Temple joins me today to share his thoughts on the US markets and dollar rising. The US markets are still very headline driven while the dollar is all about weak global growth compared to the US. There are some other markets, such as gold and copper, that further drive home these worries around the world.

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Comments:
  1. On February 12, 2019 at 10:02 am,
    Dick Tracy says:

    Who else would you want in charge these days, Trump understands business, he is an organizer, great at directing public opinion. He does not deal very well with other politicians, and meeting political issues. The politicians of the past have run the country poorly, I really don’t understand what Pelosi and Schumer are good at other then back room deals to enhance their egos. Trump is the man you want as a leader when a crisis happens period. DT

    • On February 12, 2019 at 10:17 am,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      Egos……..and nest eggs…………Pelosi……is on the hunt for more cash in her pocket, real simple….

  2. On February 12, 2019 at 10:39 am,
    doug says:
  3. On February 12, 2019 at 12:32 pm,
    Silverdollar says:

    Trump says he’s unhappy with the border deal but may sign it anyway. Sounds to me like a Christian with 4 aces in his hand. I look for him to take the deal and to deflect the criticism from his base, go ahead and do the national emergency on top of what Congress gives him.

  4. On February 12, 2019 at 1:07 pm,
    spanky says:

    Meh. Put a fork in commodities. At best most of the rest of the year will be a sideways to down slog. At worst, we are about to break down and start another massive leg lower similar to the first leg between 2011 and 2015. Gold will probably correct for the next few weeks, and even if it pops higher, it will be running into the declining 400 WMA, currently at $1350–which will most likely pose serious resistance.

    I’m done watching the miners. GDX will likely be a mess the rest of the year, although $21 should be solid support through July. AG and EXK continue to look sick. AXU is very extended and is up almost 100% off the lows, so expect it to get hammered very soon.

  5. On February 12, 2019 at 1:16 pm,
    spanky says:

    $silver:$gold on the cusp of breaking down. Tomorrow could very well be the day that seals it. Let’s face it, GCC looks like it is about to make a swan dive. I wouldn’t expect silver to hold up at all if that happens.

  6. On February 12, 2019 at 5:09 pm,
    spanky says:

    Commercial short position in silver has exploded higher. Expect a massive drop soon. Gold’s looks fine.

  7. On February 12, 2019 at 6:11 pm,
    spanky says:

    With the silver CoTs where they are and the fact that time is quickly running out for silver just like it ran out for GCC, there is a good chance silver has already peaked for the year although there is a chance it could recover current levels in late 2019. If silver isn’t over $15.75 by the second week of March, it’s probably headed back down into the $13s by July. Needless to say the gold silver ratio will be making new highs if it plays out like that.

  8. On February 13, 2019 at 7:11 am,
    Chartster says:

    Spanky,
    I’m not sure about the weighting in GCC. It could be that oil will put drag on that one. Crude oil is about to make a big move right here, not sure which way it’s gonna go.

    I agree with you about PMs. They should head south after gold tags 1330 again.

    Question: what do you think about copper and those stocks? It’s hard to tell if copper will break 2.90 on this try, but if it does we got a major shift going on.
    Your thoughts (or anyone’s on copper)?

    • On February 13, 2019 at 9:06 am,
      spanky says:

      Don’t really follow copper much, but I’ll give my thoughts on the charts.

      The daily chart looks ok to me. The Ichiimoki cloud looks bullish, although there is a thin spot in the cloud around March 13th at $2.69 (the transition zone between red and green clouds) that could allow for a breakdown.

      The weekly chart looks mixed at best, with limited upside. $2.93 is going to pose serious resistance based on the weekly Ichimoku cloud. And for me the only vulnerability in that giant red cloud comes June 17 to July 4th. It’s certainly possible for price to break though flat cloud borders, but it is absolutely not something I would bet on. The weekly stochastics look supportive of further upside to me from current price. The 5 week RSI is pointed down now having reached overbought last week. Also, the 50 WMA just recently negatively crossed the 100 WMA, which is on net a bearish long term signal.

      Overall, 2019 for $copper looks bearish to neutral at best for me, with limited upside, just like the rest of the commodity complex–gold excluded (silver is still a coin flip for me). There is absolutely nothing on the weekly chart that even remotely says a long term bull trend has been established at this point. Now if price busts though $2.93 with authority before mid-year, I will have been wrong, but I personally don’t see it happening based on the charts.

      Contrast $copper with the daily and weekly charts for gold and GDX. There is absolutely no comparison.

    • On February 13, 2019 at 9:29 am,
      spanky says:

      Also, regarding GCC, it is an etf that represents the old $CCI, which was an unweighted index (all commodities given equal weight) unlike the CRB, which gives more weight to oil than anything else. To me, GCC gives a much better picture of the overall complex than CRB. And GCC appears to lead oil, i.e., oil tends to catch down or up to GCC, not the other way around.

  9. On February 13, 2019 at 10:44 am,
    Chartster says:

    Thanks for the concise rundown. Yea, commodities might take a little while longer before they get a good bid.

    • On February 13, 2019 at 10:55 am,
      spanky says:

      The yen is in serious trouble! Not good at all for commodities.

  10. On February 13, 2019 at 11:25 am,
    spanky says:

    honestly I should sell all my miners today after holding these turds for almost 3 years. I’m done fighting the Fed. they win. Powell has spray painted “you lose” on my dying corpse.

    Money printing goes right into the the things that are openly subsidized by the govt and Central Banks–housing, stocks (mostly via buybacks and stock and bond purchases by CBs), healthcare, education, etc.

    For commodities, over the last 30 years, all that seems to matter is the directionality of the yen–money printing means absolutely nothing–NOTHING. Exchange rates are all that matters.

    At some point, when the USD is at 140+ and the banksters own all of the farms and mines, they will let commodities rise, but it will have zero to do with money printing or the quantity of money.

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