Market Moves Into The Fed Meeting and What To Watch For In The Statement
Raghee Horner, Futures and currency Expert and Simpler Trading joins me today to share her thoughts how the USD and US markets are moving heading into the Fed meeting. We also discuss the keys to watch for in the statement today.
Click here to visit the Simpler Trading website and follow along with Raghee.
I see auto-makers swiching to platinum, to replace palladium; just as they swapped from Pd to Pt a decade ago.
Pt will probably advance the most this year, notwithstanding current TA.
Current TA supports higher prices:
http://schrts.co/rXGhgGwN
The monthly chart is shaping up, too.
GDX is holding between point of control and TAS bottom in a bearish daily box…..i am in it because weekly and monthly look good…alright not good but hopeful in an iincipient move
SPY:GLD has retraced 61.8% of its Q4 plunge and is backtesting broken channel support:
http://schrts.co/zDbnYgde
Will it push higher if the Fed doesn’t cut? Maybe, but probably not soon.
HOLY GDX batman…Returned to screen after 10 minute break!…Dovish!…Not support for dollar as Trump wanted since campaign!
GDX 22.97 is now significant 300 minute resistance…..if close over on volume it is a conformed AB=CD up!
H&S top for GDX? I doubt it:
http://schrts.co/StiQqTBx
/ES looks to reach higher targets as Avi Gilburt had described…Me likes it!
GDX is in powerful CD leg up
This action supports my view that the high last month was not and intermediate term high. We’ll see…
http://schrts.co/JFXDvPUU
Yes Matthew…..this move may move over the feb high…good luck to traders…….inflate till IT breaks?!
OR… inflate to hide that it’s already broken.
@Goldfinger – Major support ~$22.00 in $GDX held today:”
“Powerful uptrend line drawn from the November low has had 5 touches, all successful for the bulls. #gold” – Goldfinger
Agreed Matthew. I felt we’d see the high from late March – May, then cool off for the Summer doldrums for some backing and filling. There is still a window over the next 2 months where Gold can push higher and break above the 2016 high resistance of $1377.50.
If/when a break above that level happens, it proves beyond a shadow of a doubt that Gold has been in an uptrend since Dec of 2015 at the bottom of $1045.40, and gets rid of the garbage narrative that Gold has been in a downtrend since 2011 for 8 years (which is simply not true).
People that measure from the 2011 high to now and show lower highs don’t seem to realize the wave or leg down ended when Gold bottomed in 2015. That is where one starts measuring the next leg higher, and the yellow metal has been NOWHERE close to the $1045.40 low, but has been bumping it’s head on upper resistance, and it will eventually break through.
Also they haven’t been lower highs, but staggered – $1377.50 in 2016, $1362.40 in 2017, and then $1369.40 in 2018. How hard is it to see that $1369 is higher than $1362 for proponents of this “lower high” nonsense?
Also the recent high of $1349 doesn’t mean that was the height of this intermediate move, and if gold keeps powering higher over the next 2 months…..THEN…. we’ll see where the high comes in for Gold, and if it takes out $1377.50 making a new high and showing this is an impulse leg, then is shows, the higher lows we’ve also seen since the 2015 major bottom, show the uptrend for the last 3 years has remained in place.
Gold still has work to do if it is going to validate this thesis, but it is waaaaaay closer to making a new high than making a new low, and the bears have been wrong footed for a long time now, and are going to get caught with their pants down around their ankles, scratcing their heads, and wondering where this move higher came from.
Ever Upward!
Once the breakout in Gold is validated, then Silver the stock indexes like GDX and GDXJ will put on their dancing shoes and really get their groove on.
In a “golden cross” of sorts, the HUI’s 200 week MA is above its 233 week MA for the first time in 5 years…
http://schrts.co/qRNFedEq
If equity markets hold up for a few days we may get a slightly higher high abobe feb 2019…we will see…huge volumes on this breakout bar of gdx C to D leg up
I don’t think it would pose a problem for GDX if equity markets were to fall. The gold miners went up significantly as the stock market fell 20% in Q4. The cat’s outta the bag with respect to which sector offers the better opportunity (and value).
I think the miners are heading for more than just a slightly higher high and that will surprise a lot of people.
Is it just me or is the Impact chart looking prime for a reversal?
I think so and a strong day tomorrow will be very helpful…
http://schrts.co/gGVWHeRm
Nice hammer candle that could mark a reversal in IPT.
Thanks Matthew. Is that a monthly chart? If so, can you send a weekly?
We really need some strength soon…
http://schrts.co/nmDSbNVK
Significant breakdown in 10-year treasury yields today.
Daily $TNX
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24TNX&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p3379563551c
US Dollar too, daily:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24USD&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p7645118399c
With a serious US dollar breakdown on the weekly chart threatening:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24USD&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p0346626790c
Pronounced bearish divergence in RSI, MACD, and Slow STO.
The swing high in the general markets today doesn’t look good for the bulls. The Dow Industrials didn’t confirm the strength in the S&P on this last rally, and the Dow Transports are even weaker.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24INDU&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p0970972569c
Note the bearish divergence in the MACD
The small caps (Russell 2000 $RUT) has been even weaker versus the S&P500:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p71001196088
What DOES look good, other than continuing strength in the precious metals, is commodities, though this daily $CRB chart shows obvious resistance not far above, at about 188:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24CRB&p=D&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p6365024659c
The weekly chart shows a similar resistance level.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24CRB&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p6318604086c
But it looks like it just might have enough oomph in it to break through those levels, which I think would move it into a new phase. Though it has been a long sideways grind, note it has been making higher annual highs and lows since the 2016 bottom.
Also, the last two ~18 month cycles in $CRB suggest that we are still fairly early in the rising phase of a new cycle.
Weekly Commodities vs the S&P500 since 1958
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24CRB%3A%24SPX&p=W&st=1955-03-04&id=p53541175747
That’s some beautiful bullish divergence in all three indicators. Note the 20 year bullish divergence in the PPO.
wrong link, use this one:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24CRB%3A%24SPX&p=W&st=1955-03-04&id=p71193210702
The precious metals charts in general are pretty exciting right now.
GDX:GDXJ is breaking down off the 200 week moving average:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX%3AGDXJ&p=W&st=2008-03-04&id=p0023561449c
The GLD:$SPX daily chart looks like it has just put in its low on the daily chart:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD%3A%24SPX&p=D&st=2010-03-04&id=p04606570259
Reposting this
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-03-20/neutered-fed-politically-trapped
The purpose of the Fed chiefs’ dog-and-pony show was to promote the notion that the Fed really really really (try not to laugh out loud) “cares” about the average American, even though 85% of the $30 trillion in gains generated by the Fed’s policies flowed to the top 10% and roughly two-thirds of the gains flowed to the top few percent.
The bottom 80% got essentially nothing except a drastic reduction in the purchasing power of their stagnating wages. If this is how the Fed “cares” about average Americans, I wonder what they’d do if they chose to impoverish average Americans. Oh wait a minute, they already did.