Chris Temple from The National Investor – Wed 15 May, 2019

Wrapping Up The Couple Headlines That Drove Markets Higher Today

A market wrap with Chris Temple… We started the day with a bad retail sales number that had the market open down. Throughout the day they were bought on some trade talk where Trump pushed back tariffs on autos. Then after market we have Trump wrapping up tensions with China. All of these stories are disused as well as the treasury market moving higher now at levels not seen since 2016.

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Comments:
  1. On May 15, 2019 at 2:56 pm,
    cfs says:
  2. On May 15, 2019 at 3:02 pm,
    cfs says:
  3. On May 15, 2019 at 7:20 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    I’m surprised more guests or commentators haven’t commented on the latest takeout in the mid-tier gold miners….

    As predicted earlier in the year when the Aussies were swarming the mining conferences, it is the Aussie miners that are cashed up due to their helpful currency exchange rates, and on the prowl for acquisitions.

    This merger will likely kick-start more Australian takeovers of miners in North America.

    This takeover of Atlantic Gold by St Barbara is also an all cash offer – Nice!

    __________________________________________________________

    St Barbara to Acquire Atlantic in Friendly Offer for C$802 Million

    by @newswire on 14 May 2019

    https://ceo.ca/@newswire/st-barbara-to-acquire-atlantic-in-friendly-offer-for

    • On May 15, 2019 at 7:25 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Atlantic Gold was a true success story from exploration, to development, to production, to takeover. They met their guidance and strategy, plowed through the hurtles, and their share price reflected the job well done.

      We don’t see many trajectories like that, but it is also a big win for Nova Scotia.

      Often investors in these chat rooms are hyper-critical, but neglect to point out when companies and management teams get it right.

      Big hat tip to Atlantic Gold and the longs that rode their story up to a successful exit.

      • On May 16, 2019 at 2:41 am,
        Excelsior says:

        Pinch Me, I Must Be Dreaming

        by @Goldfinger on 14 May 2019

        “Pinch me, I must be dreaming. After Tuesday’s market close we learned about a C$722 million all-cash acquisition of Nova Scotia gold producer Atlantic Gold (TSX-V:AGB) by ASX listed gold producer St. Barbara (ASX: SBM) at a 41% premium to today’s market close in AGB shares. M&A among mid-tiers (both developers and producers) has been one of my main themes for the gold sector in 2019. However, it’s been slow going thus far and the sector seems to have been ‘frozen’ by the Newmont/Goldcorp and Barrick/Randgold mega-deals. Today’s Atlantic Gold/St. Barbara deal melts the ice a bit and stands out to me for a few reasons:”

        > “It’s an all-cash deal that is not contingent upon financing. This speaks strength and commitment. St. Barbara wants the Atlantic Gold assets and they obviously see value well above and beyond the price they are paying for AGB. ”

        > “A 41% premium for a company whose shares were already trading near all-time highs is highly significant. While AGB is undoubtedly one of the better managed gold producers out there, there must be other mid-tiers and juniors worthy of ~40% takeover premiums.”

        > “We are seeing a trend of Australian mining companies making investments and acquisitions in Canada and the US – Newcrest acquiring 70% of Red Chris from Imperial, South32 buying Arizona Mining, and we’ve seen OceanaGold make multiple smaller deals in Nevada including investing more than C$30 million in Gold Standard Ventures (TSX:GSV).”

        “From my perspective the most important aspect of the Atlantic Gold news is that it’s good news after a rather tough stretch for the mining sector. St. Barbara also proves that there are mining management teams that are able to think outside the box and acquire high quality assets even at times when the gold sector is near its lows for the year. ”

        https://ceo.ca/@goldfinger/pinch-me-i-must-be-dreaming

        • On May 16, 2019 at 5:56 am,
          Charles says:

          Hi Ex – I know you pulled out of Gold Standard Ventures a while back. I own a small position in GSV and have owned Oceana Gold in the past and wouldn’t mind owning if they ultimately take out GSV. Are you buying GSV here? It looks like it is forming a an inverse head and shoulder pattern and the the weekly reversal bar around 4/15 looks interesting to me.

          • On May 16, 2019 at 7:01 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Hey Charles. Yeah, I got impatient with GSV but If Oceana goes shopping and scoops up GSV for a 40-60% premium from these levels that would be a nice hit, but I already have a number of developers and distressed smaller producers that check similar boxes.

            GSV does have a solid project with Pinion / Dark Star on the Carlin trend and the secondary Lewis project in the Battlemountain trend. I also love Nevada, and it is one of the best jurisdictions in the US or really anywhere on the planet for Gold mining, permitting, low population, etc… The challenge I have is that there are so many Nevada projects, so it is like going to Red Lake with a swarm of projects or the Golden Triangle with 70+ projects. You can’t own them all.

            I do like GSV as developer that should get bought out at one point, but I’m also looking for companies that will run for while, when the sector gets more active, before they get acquired.

            GSV looks like a good value here after falling the last few years, but then again, so does the majority of the mining sector. After looking at it again, it is back to the levels I was accumulating initially, so It does look intriguing here.

            Personally I am over exposed to Gold and Silver miners and need to consolidate the number of them down, and not add any more, but I’d but GSV on the dirty dozen of takeovers I’d expect in the next 1-2 years.

          • On May 17, 2019 at 9:20 am,
            Charles says:

            Thanks Ex. Just out of curiousity, how many juniors/developers/explorers due you hold.

          • On May 18, 2019 at 1:54 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Too many 🙂

            15 Silver, 28 Gold…. not to mentition royalty companies, PGM, Zinc, Copper, Uranium, and Lithium companies.

          • On May 18, 2019 at 1:58 am,
            Excelsior says:

            I want to get it down to 12 Silver and 12 Gold.

            4 Explorers, 4 Developers, 4 Producers for both Gold & Silver is my preferred target.

            Once we finally get a solid move in the PMs and related miners, I plan on cashing out or phasing out a lot of the dead weight. Until then…

          • On May 20, 2019 at 8:04 am,
            Charles says:

            Thanks Ex. My number is right, but need to get some more producers and less silver miners.

    • On May 16, 2019 at 2:08 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Are Gold Stocks in a Position Similar to the Stock Market in Early 1982?

      May 10, 2019 – AIS Capital Management

      “There are many similarities between gold mining shares today and the general stock market in early 1982. At that earlier time stocks had been through a decade of disappointing returns, they were significantly undervalued, and at what turned out to be a generational buying opportunity. The problem then was that investors’ attitudes ranged from indifference to downright disgust, since so many people had been hurt by owning stocks during the previous decade. When stocks finally lifted out of their lethargy in August 1982, they increased in price approximately 40% in four months. They did not provide an easy entry point for about a year, and then it was at substantially higher prices.”

      “Today most investors scoff at the thought of investing in gold mining shares. The few who would consider the idea are convinced there is no rush—they will know the perfect entry point when it occurs. However like stocks in 1982, an advance in gold shares may be as explosive as that earlier liftoff in the general stock market.”

      “We believe there are strong reasons to expect a powerful liftoff in gold shares and suggest that investors have a position before an advance commences.”

      http://www.321gold.com/editorials/guest/hummel051619.pdf

      • On May 16, 2019 at 2:20 am,
        Excelsior says:

        Can You Afford To Ignore These Two Flawless Gold Slide Indicators?

        Przemyslaw Radomski – May 15, 2019

        “We would like to point your attention to two factors that confirm that the next move lower is going to be significant.”

        “The first of them is the analysis of the silver stocks, and the second is the analysis of the popularity of 2 key search phrases for the gold market. Let’s start with the former.”

        “We’re going to discuss the huge daily volume spikes. And in particular, we’re going to focus on days when the silver miners (were using the SIL ETF as a proxy for the sector) declined on big volume. There were quite a few such days since early 2016 and they were almost all characterized by analogous price action – not only in the case of silver miners, but also in the case of gold.”

        “To put it simply, gold usually took a dive after silver miners declined on huge volume.”

        “You see, the very recent price/volume action in silver stocks was not average. It was special.”

        There are two reasons for it:

        1) “The daily volume was higher than what we saw previously. In fact, it was the highest daily volume that we ever saw in case of the SIL ETF.”

        2) “The volume spike took place right after a major breakdown.”

        “The April 1st volume in the silver miners was no April Fools’ Day joke. It exceeded the previous record by about 30%.”

        “The reason we are mentioning all this is not only to show you that the bearish implications that we described in early April haven’t yet fully developed as the volume was bigger than the previous record and the decline – so far – isn’t bigger than the past slide. We are mentioning all this, because we have once again seen a daily decline on relatively big volume.”

        http://www.321gold.com/editorials/radomski/radomski051519.html

  4. On May 16, 2019 at 2:34 am,
    Excelsior says:

    Mining Clichés Explained

    May 4, 2019 – Urban Crows

    “There’s nothing like a cheesy marketing cliché in a news release to make you immediately buy a bucket-load of a company’s stock, right? Spend five minutes talking to any IR professional at an investor conference and see how many clichés you can spot. This is the kind of stuff I mean.”

    “We’re undervalued relative to our peers and poised for success.”

    “Our management is best-in-class with a proven track record”

    “That’s the steak, now here’s the sizzle.” (wtf?)

    “Anyone who follows the junior mining sector will -just maybe- have spotted the odd cliché tucked away in marketing materials, or in one of the many stale corporate PowerPoints that end up unread on a dull home page. The judicious use of meaningless phrases is an art form that our industry has perfected…”

    “Creating Shareholder Value”

    “Undervalued”

    “Elephant Country”

    “(insert anything here) Equivalent Grade”

    “The Big Boys / Majors Are Sniffing Around.”

    “Pathway To Production / Near Term Cashflow”

    “Proven Track Record (see also Creating Shareholder Value)”

    “Independent Research”

    “Grade Is King”

    “World Class / Tier One / Top Quartile Deposit” (see also Tiger By The Tail)

    “Lowest Quartile Operating Cost” (see also Tier One / World Class)

    “The Trend Is Your Friend”

    “In The Shadow Of The Head Frame / The Best Place To Look For New Mines Is By Old Mines”

    “Poised For Success” (see also Creating Shareholder Value)

    “Upcoming Catalysts”

    “Open To Depth / Open Along Strike” (see also Blue Sky Potential)

    “Blue Sky Potential”

    “We Have Full Community & Stakeholder Support”

    “Tiger By The Tail”

    “Has Seen No Modern Exploration / Unexplored Since…”

    “Pre-tax IRR and/or NPV(anything less than 6%)”

    “MARK TWAIN MINES OUTLINES UPCOMING CATALYSTS FOR ITS BLUE SKY PROGRAM IN ELEPHANT COUNTRY…”

    https://urbancrows.com/2019/05/04/cheesy-mining-cliches-explained-by-the-urbancrows-blog/#more-718

  5. On May 16, 2019 at 7:21 am,
    Bonzo Barzini says:

    I have not lost hope for my stock in Bufflesfontaine, Royal Oak Mines, Allied Nevada, Canyon Resources, Trillion, Hecla, New Gold, and the Beefstake Mine.

  6. On May 16, 2019 at 7:28 am,
    spanky says:

    Watching the HUI tank, and the stock market rally strongly every day, is pretty painful to watch at this point. One of the longest rallies in years in the HUI erased in a matter of weeks. All that’s left to make is a lower low. That’s what bear markets do afterall I guess. Longs have been riding the slope of hope for 3 years.

  7. On May 16, 2019 at 7:55 am,
    Chartster says:

    Yea, PMs and miners are about to fall through the trap door.
    All the while the stock exchange still goes up.
    You would think with all the geopolitical craziness going on the stock market would tank and metals go up. ( up is down, down is up )

    At least commodities are looking good. FWIW

    • On May 16, 2019 at 8:29 am,
      spanky says:

      Actually, yesterday’s black candle dojis in GCC and DBA aren’t exactly bullish for the medium term.

      And if the USD keep ramping to the moon, they will probably both see new lows eventually.

  8. On May 16, 2019 at 8:10 am,
    OOTB Jerry says:

    Good to know silver and gold are rigged,……..the powers to be …are in control…and you can make adjustments from there…..

  9. On May 16, 2019 at 8:24 am,
    larry says:

    /ES swing low confirmed…..Next upside target on daily is 2910 area on daily….Geeze…..large price move on low volume=short covering…..but how high…watch the japaneese candle shapes …a few doji at tops is common then a reversal on volume for next top…..when?….yuk yuk

  10. On May 16, 2019 at 8:24 am,
    Chartster says:

    We’ll see what happens when gold gets to 1220. It won’t take long for that to happen.

    • On May 16, 2019 at 8:33 am,
      spanky says:

      If the $1267 pivot fails, this will be no different than 2013 IMO. Gold will be nothing more than a falling knife. And the HUI will almost certainly be breaking below the 2016 low if that happens.

      Not even a decent countertrend bounce to keep shorts honest. The HUI just sliced through the 100 and 200 DMAs like they weren’t there and hasn’t even managed a proper back test, and may not. What a POS, jeezus.

    • On May 16, 2019 at 8:43 am,
      spanky says:

      This sucks.

      • On May 16, 2019 at 10:57 am,
        OOTB Jerry says:

        Ditto…………I have retreated to the background…..this sector does in fact stink.

  11. On May 16, 2019 at 8:45 am,
    larry says:

    /Es…If this retracement up moves much over 2901(.618) before rolling over…Any move back down cannot be considered an AB=CD down…As such the next move down? should be a slightly lower low and that will be the Intermediate cycle low..No melt downs appearing on the horizon at all…

  12. On May 16, 2019 at 8:48 am,
    larry says:

    /Es…so what i am trying to say is that 2910 is a slam dunk target and the question is how much over that until/if the thing reverses again for the retest of recent low

  13. On May 16, 2019 at 8:51 am,
    larry says:

    /Es i meant 2895 is a slam dunk but 2910 may be a bridge too far…i apologixze

  14. On May 16, 2019 at 8:51 am,
    cfs says:

    Unverified OFF Topic.

    I am told the Horowich report on “Spygate” is now complete and will be published VERY soon…..I’m guessing Friday late afternoon.

  15. On May 16, 2019 at 8:56 am,
    spanky says:

    You want to see a what a beautiful consolidation and break out look like? Take a look at the GLD:SLV daily chart. The breakout projects to at least 9.2, which means plenty of pain ahead.

  16. On May 16, 2019 at 8:59 am,
    Temple says:

    Here’s another “off topic” item, since the topic was changed from what Cory and I discussed…

    Anyhow, for those of you who want by far and away the BEST 16 minutes on what’s really at stake with China:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oYraLI04WiU

    • On May 16, 2019 at 9:29 am,
      Chartster says:

      Thanks Chris. Steve Bannon was spot-on, as is Trump.

      • On May 16, 2019 at 9:34 am,
        Temple says:

        The $64,000 question is whether Trump stays that way. I hope that he does.

        • On May 16, 2019 at 9:42 am,
          Chartster says:

          He understands the long term impact better than anyone does. He’s been pounding te unfair China trade practices for more than 25 years.
          He won’t back down.

        • On May 16, 2019 at 10:02 am,
          cfs says:

          Thanks, Chris, I missed the Bannon interview because I stopped watching CNBC….I was sick of their bias (and stupidity of some of their interviewers).

      • On May 16, 2019 at 10:13 am,
        Matthew says:

        -“There is little doubt that the Money Power co-opted the leadership of the Land of the Dragon a long time ago.”

        -“The build up of China must be seen in light of the decades-old program of the de-industrialization of the West, particularly America. What has been given to China, was taken from elsewhere.”

        As also stated in the following article, we are rarely privy to truth regarding the real goal, the agenda of red China.

        http://chinawatchcanada.blogspot.com/2015/01/chinas-rise-and-opposition-to-us-fits.html

        • On May 17, 2019 at 5:43 am,
          OOTB Jerry says:

          In his excellent analysis of the power brokers in China, St. John Bartholomew reminds us that Marxism is a Money Power operation and that Mao did their bidding. Mao was apparently educated at Yale’s department in China. Yale’s Skull and Bones were very active in Asia and Mao was probably a member. Most American diplomats sent to him were so too.

          • On May 17, 2019 at 5:53 am,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            From the article…………..Hello……..
            Explaining the history and place of China in the New Order is beyond the scope of a comment here. Suffice to say that the ‘rise’ of China since 1974 has indeed been entirely due to massive support from the Globalist synarchy. I can’t even broach the involvement of Sino-Soviet relations during the Mao/Stalin/Khrushchev era. The best place to begin to understand China’s current position at the table is the early 70’s, with Henry Kissinger’s secret trips to China after the peak of the Vietnam War.

            Kissinger’s private message to the Chinese Communists was congratulations, they’d won a place at the Globalist’s table – let’s deal. Kissinger offered the long-term business plan to prop China up as future successor to the American role as manufacturer for the world, and global “Policeman”. The whole deal was laid out back then between Kissinger and Chou en Lai. Imperceptibly during the 90’s while American’s partied, Capitol Hill revised General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT). GATT had been around since 1948 but kicked in at the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 1995.

    • On May 16, 2019 at 9:46 am,
      b says:

      There is an issue that wasnt mentioned.
      Nobody anywhere trusts the U.S.
      To the point of wondering whats the point of making a deal with them.

      The European ships are leaving the american fleet in the Persian gulf, the Germans are tired of the Americans trying to stop nord stream 2, they lied about leaving Syria,they attack Venezuela, threaten war with Iran etc

      The world is changing, along with the world reserve currency, I kinda doubt anyone wants the americans in a leadership role.

      I actually think the world views the challenge as reducing american influence without causing the psychopaths to push nuclear buttons.

      So far so good.

      • On May 16, 2019 at 9:56 am,
        cfs says:

        You’ve been reading too much MSM, b.
        Europe understands Trump, and trusts him.
        China understands Trump. They trust him, that’s why they backed out of the deal, hoping they could persuade him to behave like the Traitor Obama. But it is a last desperate hope for China. They will realize Trump is not a stupid wimp.
        They will also eventually realize they CAN develop a good flourishing home market.

        • On May 16, 2019 at 10:00 am,
          cfs says:

          China is going to have to realize, however, they have to raise Chinese workers wages, and STOP syphoning off so much money to spend on armaments and investments in foreign countries.
          They have the population and MUST focus more on home issues and NOT foreign involvement.

        • On May 16, 2019 at 10:15 am,
          Matthew says:

          That’s pretty rich, CFS. Your stance is pure neocon MSM.

      • On May 16, 2019 at 10:12 am,
        cfs says:

        But Trump realizes Europe needs the Straits of Hormuz kept open, and Europe does not have the capability of keeping them open. Why do you think the Ronald Reagan is there risking being attacked?

        • On May 16, 2019 at 10:42 am,
          b says:

          CFS

          I dont believe 1 word from msm. Just sayin.

          The americans are in the Persian gulf for Israel, just as they attacked,Libya.Iraq,Afghanistan and Syria for Israel.

          Now its Irans turn which was planned decades ago.

          My dementia is kickin in so Ive forgotten the name of that plan but heck, Gwynne Dyer did a series about war in 1986, he discusses that plan and warned the americans have got real trouble when they get to Iran.

          This isnt new.

          Ayatollah Khamenei said: the Americans cannot be trusted, ever.

          US and Its Euro Lackeys Rip Iran Nuclear Deal to Shreds, Dare Tehran to Retaliate

          https://russia-insider.com/en/politics/us-and-its-euro-lackeys-rip-iran-nuclear-deal-shreds-dare-tehran-retaliate/ri27036

          Pepe Escobar explains some of the issues the americans have with attacking Iran.

        • On May 16, 2019 at 10:45 am,
          OOTB Jerry says:

          Just one big twisted game…….

          • On May 17, 2019 at 5:55 am,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            The more I read, the More Twisted it becomes……….the NWO……..is still alive….

          • On May 17, 2019 at 5:58 am,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            “None are more hopelessly enslaved than those who falsely believe they are free.” – Johann Wolfgang von Goethe

          • On May 17, 2019 at 6:00 am,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            But we ARE their slaves!

            The essence of Slavery is that someone else controls the value of our production.

            Under Capitalism, people depending on a wage (the 90/99%), typically consume only about 10% of the value of their own production. The entire System is geared to sucking up our production with unearned income: Usury, Landlordism, Speculation, high prices of Monopoly.

          • On May 17, 2019 at 6:05 am,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            The beauty of the System is, that when wages rise, prices, debts (and associated usurious cost), rents, rise along, sucking up the extra purchasing power.

            Residual wealth that the Middle Class retains during booms, is disowned a little later with the inevitably following crunch, forcing them into liquidation at depressed prices.

        • On May 16, 2019 at 10:58 am,
          Matthew says:

          Jerry, you nailed it. The game is very purposefully twisted in order to keep the binary-thinking masses completely confused and UNthinking. Left or right, most people believe what their team is peddling regardless of the facts. The majority of Trump fans are no different than Obama’s fans in this respect. The reason is simple: most people don’t know anything but are programmed to believe the opposite.

          • On May 16, 2019 at 11:06 am,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            Ditto…….on “most people don’t know anything but are programmed to believe the opposite.”

          • On May 17, 2019 at 10:47 am,
            Matthew says:

            That author is out of his mind. True capitalism is as good and moral as it gets. Capitalism runs on cooperation whereas the alternatives all run on coercion/force.

            You might find this interesting:
            https://youtu.be/R7C1FpV6hDI?t=8

          • On May 17, 2019 at 10:49 am,
            Matthew says:

            Thomas Woods on Child Labor
            https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S7Qf0ey-pOo

          • On May 17, 2019 at 1:42 pm,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            The article I posted, ….was more on the line of thinking….the sheeple never get it….
            prices are always going to be more than they can afford, ….while working for the “Man”

          • On May 17, 2019 at 1:53 pm,
            Matthew says:

            I thought it might be something like that.

          • On May 17, 2019 at 2:10 pm,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            Thanks for the posting on LIb and Christianity ……
            Some interesting thoughts, ..which I would have to say, …I differ with some, but, the overall is kind of good. The difference might be picky , but, …that would take days to go over….Over all, …God, did not say there was a free lunch in this time period(New Test), for those who do not work….
            As for govts, and rulers, …he is clear on that also. And a rich man and his talents , he is clear on that one.

          • On May 17, 2019 at 2:13 pm,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            PS……always enjoy your comments..and posts…….

          • On May 17, 2019 at 2:24 pm,
            Matthew says:

            Thanks Jerry, ditto. 😉

  17. On May 16, 2019 at 9:00 am,
    b says:

    May 15 Can You Afford To Ignore These Two Flawless Gold Slide Indicators? Przemyslaw Radomski 321gold

    I am hoping the doldrums is still the best time to buy, july/aug if it doesnt come up after that………………..

    I still think supply being greater than demand has something to do with prices.
    But if it is manipulation there is hope they manipulate the price up.

  18. On May 16, 2019 at 9:17 am,
    larry says:

    http://tos.mx/DV9FZN
    /GC daily…..look at the excursive move above the consolidation box….If we get a symetric move below it hits 1255 area….this fulfills fibionacci retracements on the weekly and monthly charts…if it takes a month or so the intermediat time frame completes as does the seasonal time frame cycle bottoms…my assumption now is that 3/4 weekly was the previous intermediate low and the the next one lies ahead another 6 to 10 weeks…of course /GC must break below 1267.3 4/29 low on weekly to confirm an intermediate cycle failure leading to a new low…even if a very marginal new low

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