How to position your portfolio into a news heavy weekend

June 28, 2019

Chris Temple, Founder of The national Investor shares his thoughts on how to be positioned heading into the weekend where we have a major news event. This weekend it is the G20 meeting between Trump and Xi. We also discuss the importance of the close this week at month and quarter end.

Click here to visit Chris site and find out more about his newsletter.

    Jun 28, 2019 28:52 PM

    I cannot see Emperor for life Xi agreeing openly to an honest trade deal.
    The question that really arises is the extent to which President Trump may be deceived by China. As a New Yorker, I do not expect him to be fooled.

    China is a total state-controlled oligarch system. Those in power do not believe in openly yeilding power. (Remember Tiananmen Square and the thousands slaughtered.)
    The only question is the extent to which lying will occur.

      Jun 28, 2019 28:37 PM


      SAN FRANCISCO (AP) — Apple will manufacture its new Mac Pro computer in China, shifting away from a U.S. assembly line it had been using for that product in recent years, according to a report published Friday.

      The company intends to assemble the new Mac Pro in a factory near Shanghai, according to The Wall Street Journal , which cited unidentified people familiar with the plan.

      Apple issued a statement saying the new Mac Pro will be designed and engineered in California, but wouldn’t say where it will be assembled.

      “We’re proud to support manufacturing facilities in 30 U.S. states and last year we spent $60 billion with over 9,000 suppliers across the U.S.,” Apple said.

      Even so, moving Mac Pro assembly to China represents a retrenchment that underscores the challenges that Apple might face as it explores ways to avoid potential tariffs that the Trump administration may slap on the iPhone and other Apple devices already being made in China.

      Unlike most other Apple products, the $6,000 Mac Pro isn’t designed for the mass market. It’s a high-end desktop computer designed for companies and people who have specialized needs.

        Jun 28, 2019 28:03 PM

        Don’t understand Apple’s thinking on Mac Pro evolution. They’ve taken a reasonably mass market product with a premium price and turned it into a niche product at a silly price. I would have thought the former was they way to create a core fan base.

    Jun 28, 2019 28:24 PM

    Humor of the day:
    Alexa swears at person after he cancels Amazon prime:


    Jun 28, 2019 28:52 PM

    Gold just put in it’s highest monthly and quarterly close in years. Cheers!

    DarthFader and the gold manipulators must be on vacation. 😉

      Jun 28, 2019 28:11 PM

      Gold to Close Best Month Since 2016; Palladium Jumps to 3-month highs

      Mauricio Carrillo – Jun 28, 2019

      “Gold and other metals are trading positive on the last day of the week as investors are nervous ahead of the well-waited meeting between Trump and Xi. Some risk aversion is hurting the dollar, giving power to gold buyers.”

      “Investors are also focused on the end of the month and the quarter.”

      “In the month, gold is closing its best month since 2016 with over 8.0% gains. It is logging its second consecutive month of gains. On the quarter, XAU/USD recovered itself from early losses, and it is posting near 9.5% gains in the last three months.”

      “According to experts, gold has been fueled by risk aversion due to the trade war, economic growth concerns in the United States, and geopolitical tensions in the middle east. At the top of it, the Federal Reserve hinted a possible rate cut in its meeting of July, giving extra power to the XAU/USD.”

        Jun 28, 2019 28:35 PM

        Gold Monthly Chart – Highest level since 2013:

          Jun 28, 2019 28:39 PM

          The Proof is now definitively in the Pudding that Gold put in it’s Major bottom at $1045.40 in Dec 2015, and started the new Bull Market after that.

          The lower high’s narrative from that point forward never held up because 2018’s high was more than 2017’s high, but now there is absolutely no doubt that Gold has taken out the 2016, the 2015 high, the 2014 high, and is working on 2013’s.

          That’s called a breakout.

            Jun 28, 2019 28:06 PM

            Hug & Kisses to all those over the years that were convinced we were still in a Bear market this whole time, and that 2016 was just a counter-trend suckers rally in a continuing bear. Oh, contraire……

            Those folks were #WrongoInTheCongo . That should have been blatantly obvious since Gold never came down and even tested the major low again at $1045.50, but you couldn’t tell those wackos that, because they just whined and moaned.

            In reality, Gold Bottomed in Dec 2015, and anyone that positioned during tax loss selling in 2015 or got positioned in Jan 2016 had an epic run up through that summer and either trimmed into the strength, or even if they held they are still up in most stocks (there are a few exceptions that made lower lows since then, but the mining indexes and most of the mid-tiers and smaller producers or solid developers are still up since that time).

            Gold had gone up $200-$300 higher since the Dec 2015 low, for the last few years hitting it’s head on resistance, (which would have been an odd thing to have happening in a bear market). Now in June of 2019, Gold broke above the peak from 2016 at $1377.50, broke above the 2014 peak of $1392.60, and got up to the $1430’s, proving beyond a shadow of a doubt, this is a new impulse leg higher.

            On the monthly the $1409 is higher than those peaks and prior monthly peaks as well, and Gold is at a higher close than any time since 2013 when the crash from much higher levels happened. This was the shot across the bow for the long game.

            In the near term, there could be some backing and filling but for those that have the eyes to see it we’ve been in the bull market all this time and now Gold is stretching its legs and later this year or next is going to start running. Those that camp out on the sidelines and dither, are going to watch the move higher and wither.

            Jun 28, 2019 28:40 PM

            Look I agree Ex however I do remain somewhat cautious. One can never underestimate the powerful bear we endured. Ultimately your points are valid and indicate a confirmed bull. One thing that would be interesting to view if it were to occur would be gold testing the former resistance region we all know too well about as now a current support.

            Of course I would rather see gold hold the 1400 handle. Like Matthew noted, to see gold post consecutive weekly closes above $1400 is bullish.

            With some pressing matters to digest over the weekend, we may see a significant move in gold one way or another on Monday, Aus time.

            Jun 28, 2019 28:18 PM

            Hi Ozibatla – good points as per usual. Yes, the more closes above the 14 handle the better.

            Please know my comments were not directed at you. Many of the folks that were so aggressive and combative in 2016, 2017, and 2018 don’t even post here any more, and few other mega-bears only post occasionally. They of course have been conveniently missing most of this year and especially the last few weeks.

            What they completely missed in their blast in and insult everyone and blow out style is that It is fine to disagree and look at things from different angles, but even when they were presented with the facts they completely ignored them. No matter how many times a number of folks on here patiently reviewed where the key price levels were, where key resistance was, and what moving averages and peaks were exceeded in 2016, and how there was a series of higher lows and irregular highs since then…. they couldn’t or wouldn’t hear it.

            Those negative nancies just kept beating up on gold bulls as idiots, missing the ability to see the major low and new trend that started in 2016 and how that was when the worm turned. Many kept trying to make a case from 2013 to present, negating that the new cycle started 3 years ago, and they kept incorrectly stating we were in an 8 year bear market. That was completely wrong as the bear market ended in 2015 and was 5 years long, but they weren’t going to let facts get in the way of their narratives.

            Sadly those same people were wrong-footed most of this time and missed a number of other rallies in the PMs like the Q1 runs of 2016, 2017, 2018, and 2019, and the fall rallies of 17′ and 18′, and acted like everyone bought at the tops in 2011 and held all the way down to the lows – which would have been extremely unlikely.
            The comments we seen get hurled at the regular contributors here at the KER were tacky, misleading, mean-spirited and ridiculous, and today’s close was a key milestone in definitively putting the discussion to rest for good. So it seemed worth it to pause and take a victory lap for putting up with all their grief for years.

            Yes, in the near-term it is wise to be cautious, but even the last few weeks was a great run in the larger miners both Gold and Silver for those with positions in place. Many of my stocks and the stocks I follow are up 15-40% which is way the hell better than my retirement account in the general markets is doing. Money sitting on the sidelines isn’t making 20% or 40% either, so sitting in cash at the expense of the rally wasn’t the right call either.

            Even investors that positioned heavily in tax loss selling 2018 are sitting pretty in many positions at current levels, from where they were the end of last year, so a mild correction isn’t really a big deal at this point. I’m holding in most stocks unless key support levels get broken.

            I’ll be buying dips moving forward, and waiting longer to sell rips, as the new game plan is letting the winners run and not selling too early.

            To be clear this doesn’t mean it’s a rocket launch from here, and I’m not saying “to the moon” because I despise those kind of calls; but the move up should increase in momentum over the next 12-18 months sloping higher to mirror the fall down in 2012 and 2013. That is something to look forward to and position for accordingly on any corrective moves.

            Ever Upward!

            Jun 28, 2019 28:31 PM

            It does make sense to remain cautious this early on but the bullish case just got a lot better over the last several days. Even to hedge, I have no interest in betting anything against the sector right now.

            Jun 28, 2019 28:50 PM

            Agreed Matthew. The downside pullbacks will be more limited at this point, and the real risks moving into the Autumn will be runaway rallies to the upside that investors are not properly positioned for. There may still be a bit of weakness in July, but then in August & September it could get really interesting.

            Jun 28, 2019 28:11 PM

            I’m guessing next week will be up and then we’ll see weakness ahead of the next Fed announcement.

      Jun 28, 2019 28:11 PM

      Not so, gold is being manipulated up, but I better not talk about how mad that makes me! LOL! DT

        Jun 28, 2019 28:35 PM

        haha! DT – Yeah this upward manipulation is really frustrating isn’t it.

        Someone should do something about that and stop the criminality. 🙂

          Jun 28, 2019 28:39 PM

          Dont worry Ex, I knew you wernt having a go at me. I get your direction. And yes I also agree there will be no moonshoot movement in gold otherwise its a classic case of what goes up must come down. Consolidation, retracements, backing and filling, corrections, call it what you will, they are constructive and positive for markets.

          There will always be cynics and pessimists. If nothing else they bring balance (not to mention entertainment too). I put my hand up in guilt for the above occasionally.

          I think at this stage geopolitical sentiment is the strong factor in gold until we get a definitive statement from the Fed next month regarding interest rates. Golds current upswing seems to have run its limit but thats to be expected as its has been quite impressive. Like you say, some backing and filling now is healthy.

            Jun 28, 2019 28:47 PM

            Cheers Ozibatla. Yes, the pullbacks now are the basing that will build new energy and new entry points for the next leg higher.

            Yes, once again cynics and pessimists are to be expected, but blind, angry, ignorance of the available data doesn’t do anyone (including the people that hold such views any favors).

            As for the geopolitical factors, those are usually fleeting, so I’d prefer to see the move up due to financial factors like the Fedbabble, falling yields and rising bonds, and a weaker greenback (which seems like it is starting to play out).

            Until then…. May your investments be prosperous.

    Jun 28, 2019 28:42 PM

    GOLD will and up and go upward it’s ( THE ONLY REAL MONEY LIFTED !!!!! ) !

    Jun 28, 2019 28:57 PM

    Do you want to know who The World’s Largest Money Managers” are, it’s not The Big US Banks it’s these two index funds who will soon be calling the shots for over $20 trillion dollars. Read this article and decide for yourself whether the future looks secure with two men controlling it.

    Jun 28, 2019 28:59 PM

    Q2 is now over and gold has acquired its first quarterly MACD buy signal in about 17 years. It also just logged back-to back weekly closes above $1400 and finished above both the monthly and quarterly upper Bollinger bands. It’s been 8 years since gold last finished above its quarterly Bollinger bands but the comparison that matters takes us back to September, 2002. That’s when gold closed above that BB for the first time in 15 years and kicked-off the bull run that topped almost ten years later.

    The move that’s starting now honestly looks far better than the one that began almost 20 years ago. In both nominal and real terms, the miners in particular are going to shock us all. That’s not wishful thinking.

      Jun 28, 2019 28:17 PM

      Those who can view a quarterly chart will like this fork that began life in Q1, 1985 and is still relevant today. It provided the resistance that “helped” gold crash in 2008 and the broken support that delivered the bear market low in Q3, 2015. In Q1 ’16, gold took that support right back and the fork has provided rising support ever since (which was test in ’16, ’17, and ’18).

        Jun 28, 2019 28:18 PM

        Notice that the 5 quarter ema has crossed above the 25 quarter ma for the first time since the middle of 2002.

          Jun 28, 2019 28:22 PM

          ‘the miners in particular are going to shock us all’… I really hope that’s to the upside!

    Jun 28, 2019 28:00 PM
      Jun 28, 2019 28:01 PM

      Europe announced that the special trade channel, Instex, that will allow European firms to avoid SWIFT and bypass American sanctions on Iran, is now operational.

      Following a meeting between the countries who singed the Iran nuclear deal, also known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which was ditched by US, French, British and German officials said the trade mechanism which was proposed last summer and called Instex, is now operational.

        Jun 28, 2019 28:08 PM

        The announcement will likely send president Trump off the rails, because in late May Bloomberg reported that as part of Trump’s escalating battle with “European allies” over the fate of the Iran nuclear accord, he was “threatening penalties against the financial body created by Germany, the U.K. and France to shield trade with the Islamic Republic from U.S. sanctions” including the loss of access to the US financial system.

          Jun 28, 2019 28:09 PM

          Here is a simpler summary of what just happened: this was the first official shot across the bow of the USD status as a global reserve currency, and not by America’s adversaries but by its closest allies. And once those who benefit the most from the status quo openly revolt against it, the countdown to the end of the USD reserve status officially begins.

            Jun 28, 2019 28:11 PM

            Better get ready to hug some gold bars……… 🙂

    Jun 28, 2019 28:56 PM

    Sick joke of the day………..US citizen…..obligation tax liability per tax payer
    is over $1,013,891…..
    Since 2000….money supply has increased 499%
    Debt clock……….

      Jun 28, 2019 28:58 PM

      Good thing on the debt clock……….Gold now valued at $5254……was $4800

      Jun 28, 2019 28:06 PM

      IN 1980…….citizen debt was $19,930…..vs…….today $1,013,891
      Population in 1980 …224Million

        Jun 28, 2019 28:12 PM

        1980 ….National Debt $893 Billion…..
        Today………………. $ 22Trillion

          Jun 28, 2019 28:51 PM

          I often look at these stats and shake my head in bewilderment. Of course the trend is long term and only going one way, how can one reasonably assume that this financial insanity ends any other way than a complete disaster? No wonder can kicking is so popular amongst those above us…

            Jun 28, 2019 28:47 PM

            Oz….thanks for looking at the numbers…..I also, am shaking my head….it is totally insane.

            Jun 28, 2019 28:36 PM

            Shake your head?

            Well, it makes my head spin! 🙂

            Totally insane. How it does not end in disaster is beyond me.

          Jun 28, 2019 28:19 PM

          OOTB, as bad as the growth of the National debt may be, what you did not list was the growth in entitlemants…..
          1980…..$ 1.7 Trillion
          Today….$ 180 Trillion.
          It is only politically-induced inflation that masks the truth of bankruptcy.
          It is interesting to contemplate, using classical economic theory, instead of pie in the sky MMT, the growth rate necessary in the economy in order to remove a future collapse which currently seems inevitable. I have seen several calculations coming out of so-called think tanks and not even the lowest result seems rmotely achievable, even if we had willing politicians.

            Jun 28, 2019 28:45 PM

            CFS……thanks for the reply…..I was just hitting the high lights on a couple of items.
            Glad you noticed the Entitlements…

            Jun 28, 2019 28:29 PM

            $180 trillion in entitlements???… Yeh somethings up with the whole freaking system!

            Jun 29, 2019 29:55 PM

            Ozibatla, You really think so! Damn, bit my tongue yet again.

      Jun 28, 2019 28:45 PM

      US citizen

      Make the illegals pay the debt!

        Jun 29, 2019 29:39 PM

        Al it just highlights a major fundamental issue: People getting benefits without working for them. It creates a major burden and inbalance on an economy when input doesnt match output. Look Im not having a go at anyone personally who has entitlements and benefits. I just think its an issues that needs to be reassessed.

        Here in Aus, penalty rates, holiday pay, sick pay, time in lieu, etc etc is costing our economy billions per year. Lets not forget our econony is much smaller than the “States” (U.S.) too.

    Jun 28, 2019 28:08 PM

    $100,000 MSRP for a Chevy pickup? Someone needs to tell this guy that the $40,000 Ford Super Duty 20 years ago was more expensive in real terms…

      Jul 07, 2019 07:50 PM

      And someone needs to tell you that you are a born a-hole.

    Jun 28, 2019 28:43 PM


    Those shirt and mug salesmen have a hell of a shoe for you!

    Putin: “liberal idea” has “outlived its purpose.”

    I tell you, I don’t want any president but if I have to have one I’d pick Putin any day over the 20+ Corruptocrats who were flappin’ their gums the last two nights!

    Hell, I’d pick Putin any day over Trump. Putin would not tolerate this country being invaded by illegals! And of course the banksters hate him.

    And listen to those boys quote the dalie lama quotes on immigration in that video. Even more hard core than Putin.

    At least there are still a couple of sane people in this world