Hour 1 – After all the news events this week look to the currency markets and precious metals

It was a very news heavy week with the major events being an ECB meeting. US Q2 GDP, and earnings from the major tech companies. While everyone is still waiting for the Fed there are some moves in the currency markets and metals that are telling a very important story.

  • Segment 1 – Extended Interview – Marc Chandler, Managing Partner at Bannockburn Global ForEx kicks off the show by recapping the major news events of the week and looking ahead to the Fed meeting next week.
  • Segment 2 – Chris Temple, Editor of The National Investor focuses on the currency market and a meeting where Trump if strategizing on how to lower the US Dollar.
  • Segment 3 – Doc joins me to look into the precious metals and share how he is trading the sector.
  • Segment 4 – This is a replay of of a segment posted earlier this week – David Erfle, Founder of The Junior Miner Junky outlines what has him encouraged about the bull market for the metals. He also offers to take a look at some of the stocks you have in your portfolio – email me at Fleck@kereport.com.

Marc Chandler
Chris Temple




Comments:
  1. On July 27, 2019 at 8:54 am,
    Excelsior says:

    Awesome. Hour 1 of the weekend show exists!

    (I was beginning to think it had been lost in translation…)

    Thanks to Cory & Big Al and all the KER commentators and contributors. Cheers!

    • On July 27, 2019 at 3:47 pm,
      Anders from Copenhagen says:

      Hi Cory.
      Thanks for all your efforts.
      Is there a reason, that the show is not uploaded to iTunes.
      😎

  2. On July 27, 2019 at 8:58 am,
    Excelsior says:

    Sprott Money News Weekly Wrap-up – 7.26.19

    Sprott Money – Jul 26, 2019 – Interview w/ Craig Hemke

    Eric Sprott discusses the ongoing rally in precious metals and looks ahead to next week’s FOMC meeting.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DTTaaVCe5kA

    • On July 27, 2019 at 10:19 am,
      Excelsior says:

      As market matures central banks conclude that a formal Gold agreement is no longer necessary

      26 July 2019

      > “Signatories of the fourth Central Bank Gold Agreement no longer see need for formal agreement as market has developed and matured”

      > “Signatory central banks confirm gold remains an important element of global monetary reserves and none of them currently has plans to sell significant amounts of gold”

      “The European Central Bank (ECB) and 21 other central banks that are signatories of the Central Bank Gold Agreement (CBGA) have decided not to renew the Agreement upon its expiry in September 2019.”

      https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2019/html/ecb.pr190726_1~3eaf64db9d.en.html

      • On July 27, 2019 at 10:22 am,
        Excelsior says:

        Europe’s Central Banks Ditch 20-year-old Gold Sales Agreement

        Francesco Canepa, Peter Hobson – July 26, 2019

        https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-europe-cenbank-gold-idUKKCN1UL1QL

        • On July 27, 2019 at 10:25 am,
          Excelsior says:

          From the article above ^^

          “Central banks bought 651 tonnes of gold worth nearly $30 billion last year, according to World Gold Council figures – the most in half a century.”

          “Larger European central banks have not started buying gold, but purchases by Poland and Hungary turned the continent into a net buyer.”

          • On July 27, 2019 at 10:39 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Bob Moriarty On The Weekend At Bernie’s Financial System And His Favorite Junior Miners

            by Ceo Technician (@Goldfinger)

            > Goldfinger: – “It’s been almost two months since we last spoke Bob and a lot has happened since early June. What are your observations right now and are we in the early stages of a big precious metals bull cycle?”

            >> Bob Moriarty: – “What I wrote about in Basic Investing in Resource Stocks is coming true. The “everything bubble” is bursting as we speak; the Chinese financial system is blowing up, Iran and the UK are playing tit for tat in the Persian Gulf, Deutsche Bank is in big trouble. The “everything bubble” is blowing up. I see a major top in the market put in place by the end of September and that will be followed by a crash at some point in October.”

            > Goldfinger: – “So a crash in the broader equity market in October, where does that leave gold miners? Will they also crash in a repeat of October 2008 OR will we see gold and precious metals miners prove to be resilient in the face of broader market turmoil?”

            >> Bob Moriarty: – “I don’t think we will see a really powerful upside move in precious metals until the Fed takes us deeper into QE-infinity. We will probably get a violent correction in metals and mining shares at the same time the broader market crashes in October. However, that will be the time to load the boat and buy every crappy junior mining stock you can get your hands on.”

            “We are going to have a liquidity crisis soon that will make 2008 look like a garden party.”

            http://energyandgold.com/2019/07/27/bob-moriarty-on-the-weekend-at-bernies-financial-system-and-his-favorite-junior-miners/

          • On July 27, 2019 at 11:18 am,
            b says:

            Good post ex.

          • On July 27, 2019 at 2:20 pm,
            Dick Tracy says:

            Ex, I believe Bob is right about the resource juniors going down initially if the market crashes. This is a time to be very cautious. I know they will come back but I don’t want to be a part of the bloodbath. I also don’t know how much money will be available for re-investing after a crash. The crypto, and weed market may have drained a lot of accounts and if the brokers start issuing call orders on margin accounts, we will see forced selling. You don’t want to miss the move up but you want to miss the move down, markets fall much faster than they rise. DT

          • On July 27, 2019 at 3:17 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Good comments DT. I actively manage my portfolio, and try to take some chips off the table on surges higher, and add back some on the dips, so I prepared to take evasive action if support levels get broken to move some funds out of the way of corrective leg, but also to have cash to deploy if levels pull back a great deal.

            2019 has already achieved the goal I wanted to see in the PMs by taking out the 2016 surge high of $1377.50 and definitively closing above it and the next higher peak from 2014 of $1392.40. This proved beyond a shadow of a doubt that the Major bottom in Gold was in December 2015 at $1045.40, and that the move in 2016 was the 1st wave in the new bull market (as we had been saying all along here at this site). The new bull market in Gold that ensued at that time was confirmed by the epic run in Silver and the miners in 2016, but many still had doubts, or thought it was a counter-trend rally.

            1) Counter-trend rallies, by there very definition, are a short-reprieve from the overall trend, followed by the next leg lower in a bear. We obviously never saw Gold test or even get anywhere close to the low of $1045.40 again for the last 3 years, and yet some insisted we were still in the Bear market that started in 2011 (which was poppycock).

            2) An impulse leg is one that takes out a new high or low, in a continuing trend. When the run really got going by spring of 2016, many boneheads were still saying the new strength we saw in Gold was just a suckers rally, but then we saw it took out a number of prior peaks $1191.70, $1232, $1307.80 (the 2013 spike down trough of $1321.50), and the key $1346.80 level. That fact alone made the 2016 surge more than just an Impulse leg, but in fact was the bell ringing that the worm had turned.

            3) In addition, Gold charged up through the key 89, 144, and 233 daily Moving Averages on it’s path to that peak at $1377.50. Bear markets don’t do that, but Bull markets do.
            Breaking up through all those moving averages (that had not been surpassed in several years) was just further confirmation, as all the shorter duration MAs then flipped to being on top, and the longer duration MAs flipped to being on the bottom = Bull market action.

            4) When a Major Top (like Sept of 2011) or a Major Bottom (like Dec of 2015) is put in, that THAT is where you start charting the next Bear or Bull cycle against the previous one. However, we heard from so many “experts” that were continuing to use those prior peaks, from before the Major bottom, to try prove their case of “lower highs” and that Gold was still in a bear market. That was incorrect charting, and those people were clearly #WrongoInTheCongo.

            5) The real trend was a pattern of “higher lows” after the 2016 surge, and people saying the Bear market was stretching on from 2011 seemed to be oblivious to the fact that Gold had added $200-$300 bucks off it’s Major low, and had been trying to break out during the 2017-early 2019 consolidation.

            6) It should be obvious to anyone now that this new impulse leg in 2019, that took out the 2016 high, and the 2014 high, and the key peak from 2013 at $1434 proves we have, in fact, been in the new bull market since Dec 2015, and we are now in the next leg of a longer bull market with lots of room left to run.

            7) Yes, there will be corrections, but I’m not sure it will be a “bloodbath” as we already had that in 2013, in 2015. We also endured a very long consolidation period sideways from late 2016 to early 2019, which was terribly boring overall. Yes, there were some nice pops to trade along the way like the Q1 Run in 2017, the fall rally in 2017, and the Q1 run in 2018 and 2019. Still overall, it was like watching paint dry.

            If we all endured the terrible Bear market from 2011 to 2015, and endured the boring slog from late 2016-early 2019, then another corrective leg isn’t much to stomach. First support will be at that $1360-$1370 range that acted as resistance for so long. If that falls then I’d like to see the 144 day moving average hold (currently around $1329). If gold drops below that for any reason, which I’m not expecting, then it would be time to sit up and play closer attention.

            Who knows what will happen this next week with the FED? (nobody).

            >> There are only 3 options though: a 25 point basis cut (already priced in), a 50 point basis cut (may move the needle a bit more in the markets), or a 0 point cut (may surprise the market and create a few waves).

            There is nothing wrong with trimming back a portion of one’s winnings in front of a potential corrective leg, but I’d caution people from going all in or selling all out either. In a Bull market, which we are clearly in for the medium to longer term, the surprises will be to the upside, not the downside. Much of the correction can occur over time versus price, like what we’ve been seeing with Gold hanging onto the gains above $1400 and resetting indicators burning up time.

            Sure a correction may be coming, but an all out bloodbath seems a bit sensational, as a fall to $1360 or $1320 isn’t a bloodbath, it is simply a corrective leg. For all intensive purposes, as long as Gold holds above the last intermediate low of $1167.10 then it would still be putting in another “higher low” no matter where it happens. If Gold did take out $1167.10 or get anywhere close, then THAT would be a bloodbath. There is not a very good probability that we’ll see that though, but a very good one that we’ll see a correction, the doubting Thomas investors and bears will pop back up, and then this will provide the basing for the next wave of money and energy to take Gold up north of the $1500s.

          • On July 27, 2019 at 3:32 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Here is a multi-year Gold Chart showing the key prior peaks and troughs, and the climb out of the Major Low in Dec 2015 to the new Bull market in 2016, consolidation move, and present day break out into the next impulse leg.

            http://schrts.co/vWAEpAxg

          • On July 27, 2019 at 6:16 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            The Reasoning Behind Gold’s Breakout

            By Alasdair Macleod – Goldmoney Insights – July 25, 2019

            “One month ago, gold made a dramatic move above a three-year consolidation (delineated by the pecked lines in Chart 1), confirming for technical analysts that a bull market in gold dating from the December 2015 low at $1,050 is alive and well. Chart 1 shows that a basing process has actually been in train for over six years, highlighted by the lower rectangular box.”

            “Technically, the post-Lehman crisis bull market, when gold more than doubled, was ripe for a set-back. After peaking at $1920 intraday in September 2011, the Cyprus banking crisis in 2012 failed to collapse the Eurosystem and the gold price fell heavily. The topping-out process is highlighted by the upper smaller box in the chart. But that is now irrelevant. What is relevant is gold appears to be breaking out of a multiyear base, solid enough to offer the prospect of a potentially strong bull market in the dollar price of gold.”

            https://www.goldmoney.com/research/goldmoney-insights/the-reasoning-behind-gold-s-breakout

          • On July 27, 2019 at 9:47 pm,
            Matthew says:

            Whether from a technical or fundamental standpoint, those who’ve doubted the gold bull since 2016 didn’t understand the picture.
            30 year US T Bond vs Gold:
            https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24USB%3A%24GOLD&p=W&yr=18&mn=7&dy=0&id=p40099250346&a=475915166

      • On July 27, 2019 at 11:07 am,
        Temple says:

        For those interested, here’s some dated but VERY enlightening “backstory” on how/why the CBGA was first launched 20 years ago. . .how it led to the ONLY verifiable effort at price suppression for gold I have ever seen. . .and how it led to one of the most wildly successful gold trades I ever recommended:

        https://nationalinvestor.com/1490/gold-manipulation-history-lesson-feb-20-2018-issue/

        https://nationalinvestor.com/1482/now-gold-suppression/

  3. On July 27, 2019 at 9:04 am,
    Charles says:

    Thanks to Cory and Al for the great show. As always appreciate the effort in finding relevant and interesting themes for each show!

  4. On July 27, 2019 at 10:37 am,
    Matthew says:

    Ron Paul: Mnuchin is Wrong on Tech Companies (Part 1)
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wKkYrZlnE_4

  5. On July 27, 2019 at 1:38 pm,
    Silverdollar says:

    It’s a mathematical impossibility for the dollar to go down much, in relation to the rest of the index since the Euro is 57.6% of the index. The euro is going to climb when they have negative interest and their debt problems???? The Yen is next with 13.60%. Anyone going to bet that Japan will sit still and watch their currency get way out of hand??? The GBP and the Canadian $ are next. Oh yea, both are going to double just because trump want’s a lower dollar. Not going to happen.

    • On July 27, 2019 at 3:21 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      You raise some valid point on the Dollar measured against the other currencies like the Euro and Yen.

      It may be that the dollar trades in a range in the mid to high 90’s like it has been, but we could still see PMs travel higher with the relatively stronger dollar, and the general markets be stuck in a Stagflation environment. Runaway Inflation or Deflation seems a bit too extreme in this environment, so it’s more likely things just churn back and forth in a huge boring grind and low growth environment for a few more years.

    • On July 27, 2019 at 4:36 pm,
      Matthew says:

      The dollar is heading down in real terms and that’s what matters to those who hold gold.

  6. On July 27, 2019 at 6:23 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    Is the Federal Reserve Caught Between a Rock and a Hard Place?

    Gary Wagner – July 26, 2019 #Gold #TechnicalAnalysis #Chart #VIDEO

    https://thegoldforecast.com/video/federal-reserve-caught-between-rock-and-hard-place

    • On July 27, 2019 at 6:27 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Gold & Silver Stocks: Book Profits Now

      Morris Hubbartt – July 26, 2019 – Super Force Precious Metals

      #TechnicalAnalysis #Chart #Video (click on the blue links)

      http://www.321gold.com/editorials/sfs/hubbartt072619.html

      • On July 27, 2019 at 6:38 pm,
        RICHARD/DOC says:

        Unlike 2015/2016, I’m not about to book profits this time around. Unlike those years, I’m not going to get cute since I feel you may miss another sudden leg higher. The odds are we come down and then develop new trading ranges for a lot of the PM stocks before we move higher down the road but the risk of missing a sudden leg higher is not worth it to me. I’m now in for the long haul and will add more on pullbacks.

        • On July 28, 2019 at 10:06 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          Yes, most surprises will be to the upside, but my comment would be there is nothing wrong with trading around core positions that stay in place with a percentage of the position (25-33%) if a corrective leg seems upon us. Morris Hubbart does a lot of swing trading, and usually only books profits for a short time period before redeploying those funds right back in again. That is how I interepreted his call — trade in some chips, wait for the pullback and then redeploy. Nothing wrong with holding on old turkey style though as the medium to longer term trends will be to the upside.

  7. On July 28, 2019 at 8:37 am,
    Matthew says:

    Kitco:
    Why a $2,000 Gold Price is in the Cards
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H-O_bCVvUxM

  8. On July 28, 2019 at 8:51 am,
    Wolfster says:

    Question for the TA experts of the board…..With a lot of the silver stocks even someone like myself with rudimentary TA skills can see the bullish nature of the charts. Can even see that a lot of them are hitting major past resistance points. Since I don’t follow as many plays as most of you do what I was wondering was whether the volumes are there on a broad basis??? Based on the ones I follow, I’m concerned that the volumes aren’t there yet for them to break through these major resistance points……..and yes I do realize if those volumes were to materialize it would result in a huge pop through those resistance points….I do see the potential for Silver going over $20 to say $21.50 area and the impact it could have on say T.USA or V.IPT……

  9. On July 28, 2019 at 11:04 am,
    Matthew says:

    Louise Yamada knows what’s up:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4GnDNUxAcbY

    • On July 29, 2019 at 8:45 am,
      Bonzo Barzini says:

      Louise should said that silver is even better than gold at present.

      • On July 29, 2019 at 9:03 am,
        Matthew says:

        True, but her friends probably wouldn’t like that.

  10. On July 28, 2019 at 11:10 am,
    Matthew says:

    ISVLF (IPT) has more than doubled versus gold in the last 5 weeks:
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ISVLF%3A%24GOLD&p=W&yr=7&mn=2&dy=0&id=p22289538447&a=568244987

  11. On July 28, 2019 at 11:14 am,
    Matthew says:

    IPT has broken out of its 3 year downtrend versus the BMO Junior Gold Index ETF:
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IPT.V%3AZJG.TO&p=W&yr=3&mn=7&dy=13&id=p87192636718&a=646550365

  12. On July 28, 2019 at 12:53 pm,
    Matthew says:
  13. On July 28, 2019 at 8:35 pm,
    Dick Tracy says:

    Plan to build Canada’s first mini nuclear power plant, factory built and then shipped to remote conditions. Interesting article, I’m sure there will be a need for this, and not just in remote locations. DT iness.financialpost.com/business/watchdogs-assess-plan-to-build-canadas-first-mini-nuclear-power-plant

  14. On July 29, 2019 at 5:38 am,
    Excelsior says:

    (PGM) (LRTNF) Pure Gold Mining, Wabauskang First Nation and Lac Seul First Nation Sign Project Agreement for Madsen Red Lake Mine

    by @nasdaq on 29 Jul 2019

    Chief Doug Riffel of Wabauskang First Nation commented, “We believe our People recognized the wealth of our Nation when we signed our Treaty and did so in the spirit of sharing. The signing of this agreement with Pure Gold recognizes our inherent rights, provides for ongoing informed consent and the sharing of the benefits from economic activity within our territory. We look forward to a long lasting, respectful and beneficial relationship with our partners, Lac Seul First Nation and Pure Gold.”

    https://ceo.ca/@nasdaq/pure-gold-mining-wabauskang-first-nation-and-lac-seul

  15. On July 29, 2019 at 6:17 am,
    Wolfster says:

    Hey Ex. Pure Gold is one of my picks for take out in the next year

  16. On July 29, 2019 at 6:41 am,
    Wolfster says:

    While I’m on a roll for time spent on the site I’ll post link to latest news from abitibi royalties just released today and before Ex gets to it. Lol
    https://www.abitibiroyalties.com/news/2019/july29/

    • On July 29, 2019 at 5:16 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Haha! Thanks Wolfster. That helps out my GZZ Golden Valley position as well. 🙂


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