Ned Schmidt - Insights on the Gold Market – Thu 8 Aug, 2019

Gold in US Dollar Terms Is Just Starting A Long Game Of Catch-Up

Ned Schmidt, Founder of The Value View Gold Report joins me to share his thoughts on the disconnect of gold priced in US dollar terms to gold priced in pretty much all other major currencies. We also touch on central bank policies and how this is one of the major drivers behind a broad rise in gold prices.

Please email me at Fleck@kereport.com if you would like more information on Ned’s newsletter.


Comments:
  1. On August 8, 2019 at 8:56 am,
    cfs says:

    Reports show that China recently bought both Soybeans and Hogs, notwithstanding what they might be saying, propaganda-wise.

    They don’t have much of a choice….either shortage of food supplies and resultant higher prices giving unrest or buying from U.S.
    They, because of theie sloppy animal husbandry policies have yet another swine flu outbreak, so expect more hog buying.
    (There might be a slight switch from soy to corn for animal feed in the future.)

  2. On August 8, 2019 at 10:25 am,
    Excelsior says:

    (USA) (USAS) Americas Silver Plans Year-end Gold Production At Relief Canyon

    Trish Saywell – August 6, 2019

    “Americas Silver (TSX: USA; NYSE: USAS) expects to start producing gold before year-end at its fully funded Relief Canyon project in Nevada, 153 km northeast of Reno.”

    “The mine will produce about 91,000 oz. gold per year over a 5.6 year mine life at all-in sustaining costs (AISCs) of US$801 per ounce.”

    “Americas Silver’s other assets are its Galena complex in Idaho and its Cosala operation in Sinaloa, Mexico. During the second quarter, Galena produced about 383,000 silver-equivalent oz., including about 200,000 silver oz., and Cosala produced about 1.3 million silver-equivalent oz., including about 145,000 silver ounces.”

    The company expects full-year production from Galena and Cosala will reach 1.6 million to 2 million silver oz. and 6.6 million oz. to 7 million silver-equivalent oz., at cash costs of US$4 to US$6 per silver oz. and AISCs of US$10 to US$12 per silver oz. in 2019.

    Relief Canyon “was a fantastic transaction for us,” Blasutti says, noting that when the deal was announced in September last year, gold was trading at US$1,180 per oz. and today it’s over US$1,400 per ounce.

    The mining executive notes that even companies like First Majestic Silver (TSX: FR), Endeavour Silver (TSX: EDR; NYSE: EXK) and Pan American Silver (TSX: PAAS; NASDAQ: PAAS) “have had to high-grade their mines, not everyone expected to be in an eight-year bear market.”

    “When people talk about the silver price moving up US$1 or US$2 I’m not sure how much of an impact this is going to have,” he says. “I’m still very excited about the silver market, but it’s got a long way to go before it impacts the bottom line … ultimately, you need a price well north of US$20 per oz. before you have a real margin expansion in silver.”

    https://www.northernminer.com/news/americas-silver-on-track-for-gold-pour-at-relief-canyon-in-q4/1003808894/

  3. On August 8, 2019 at 10:28 am,
    Excelsior says:

    ‘No Better Alternative To Gold’: FXTM

    Anna Golubova – Thursday August 08, 2019

    Gold prices continue to show strength even despite a rebounding stock market, writes FXTM chief market strategist Hussein Sayed. “Gold prices continued to hold above $1,500 despite the slight recovery in stock markets. With more than $15 trillion in debt trading with a negative yield, there doesn’t seem to be any better alternative to gold,” says Sayed. At this point, it would be normal to see some consolidation, he points out. “Given that prices have rallied a significant 17% so far this year, expect to see some consolidation now.” But, if the market sees weaker U.S. dollar, gold is in for another great rally. “If Trump’s administration considers intervening in the U.S. dollar to bring it down, expect to see another steep rally in the yellow metal price,” Sayed states.

    https://www.kitco.com/news/2019-08-08/Gold-Silver-Precious-Metals-Daily-News-Briefs.html

  4. On August 8, 2019 at 10:36 am,
    b says:

    Not sure if I heard correctly or didnt get a point, 1999 dollar loses 35%
    ok, gold was about $285 in Jan 1999.
    Maybe he meant gold was a lot better than simply a hedge?

    Funny, I had the same conversation this morning, people dont see the purchasing power of their currency dropping yet.
    They still see it as prices rising and not currency devaluing.

    I wonder what the result will be when they do catch on, they will of course. be interesting to see at what point they do.

    • On August 8, 2019 at 10:50 am,
      Matthew says:

      Many will probably never get it. Most people belong to the church of the nation state and will buy into anything they are fed.

      • On August 8, 2019 at 2:32 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        +1 Agreed. The sheeple are oblivious to their purchasing power having eroded over time, and blame it on evil corporations charging too much instead of on fiat money deteriorating as the country that backs that confidence goes further and further into a mountain of debt that will never get repaid.

        • On August 8, 2019 at 3:34 pm,
          Matthew says:

          +1
          Yes the sheep will blame free markets when the real problem is just how very LEFT the country has become over the last century.

        • On August 8, 2019 at 4:19 pm,
          b says:

          The people will catch on to their currency devaluing, its a question of when.

          A time came when the people of Zimbabwe realized it wasnt rising prices, it was their currency, same with Venezuela.

          I wonder at what point did they realize it?

          Ya want all ur cash gone before then, until then, ya need it.

          Unless you know someone thats experienced it ya can only find out when it happens I guess.

      • On August 8, 2019 at 2:54 pm,
        Dick Tracy says:

        I’m a happy camper since I bought into Brixton. DT

        • On August 8, 2019 at 3:31 pm,
          Matthew says:

          Despite Brixton’s very overbought weekly RSI reading, it is not done by a long shot…
          https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BBB.V&p=W&yr=4&mn=3&dy=0&id=p62118707983&a=635402369

          • On August 8, 2019 at 5:06 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            The move in Brixton today was epic!

          • On August 8, 2019 at 5:35 pm,
            David says:

            Sprott adding to his Brixton investment didn’t hurt either.

          • On August 8, 2019 at 8:11 pm,
            Dick Tracy says:

            Sprott is the juice man, he runs the juice bar! LOL! DT

          • On August 8, 2019 at 11:30 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            (BBB) Brixton has many anticipated drill results coming out for Thorn and also Atlin, so the drill junkies are getting fired up.

        • On August 8, 2019 at 8:24 pm,
          Dick Tracy says:

          If you are unsure of what to buy follow the money, money always likes to go where other money is and if the volume in any of the money man’s stocks pick up pay attention.

    • On August 8, 2019 at 10:55 am,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      Ever try and explain……the erosion of the purchasing power to anyone…..I do not care if, they have a PHD….they are STUPID on the subject…..They look at you like you have three heads…….

      • On August 8, 2019 at 11:12 am,
        b says:

        Yup Jerry thats true, the one I luv is “what good is gold ya cant eat it?.” 😉

        • On August 8, 2019 at 11:20 am,
          OOTB Jerry says:

          Yes, that is a good one……….kind of funny….and sad at the same time..

          • On August 8, 2019 at 2:11 pm,
            Silverdollar says:

            Jerry:
            For several years I lived in Colorado and framed houses for a living. We used to get $4.00 per sq. ft. with the house totally closed in with siding, doors and windows. Common rafter roofs then, no trusses and all nailing with a framing hatchet. It was good money in 1978-1980. I and another younger friend were making about $400 apiece, per day. I was talking to some framers last week. They make about $7 per ft. today but the purchasing power of the dollar is only about 1/3 of what we received in 1978-80. That’s the major problem with wages not keeping up.

          • On August 8, 2019 at 2:26 pm,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            Silverdollar……The construction business, took a hit, as you know, with a lot of scab labor from south of the border…..
            But, considering…..a truck in 1980, was about $4500, and now they are $55,000,
            I agree with your point…..the labor is way behind.

        • On August 8, 2019 at 12:30 pm,
          Matthew says:

          I guess some people eat dollars and T bonds.

          • On August 8, 2019 at 2:35 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Except for the youth. They are eating the cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin is good eating, but for those on a diet, try Litecoin….

      • On August 8, 2019 at 11:13 am,
        Matthew says:

        Like the general population, most formally educated people are not intellectuals and thinkers.They do what they’re told and memorize material without questioning it. In fact, they almost can’t question it when you consider the psychological impact of paying huge tuition to attend a school that might be very old and often architecturally intimidating. Yes, architecture is used to make you feel insignificant, inferior and out of the loop by people who want to con or control you. Government buildings and many banks are grand and imposing for a reason.

        • On August 8, 2019 at 11:17 am,
          OOTB Jerry says:

          Interesting on the architecture….never thought about it……..I just looked at it, like how can I copy it……

          • On August 8, 2019 at 2:38 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Take the architecture tour via riverboat in Chicago….

            You’ll come to the realization very quickly that most won’t every build a skyscraper of wonderful art deco unless they are as corrupt as the politicians, cronies, and mobsters were when most of those were erected. Talk about feeling like one of the little people…. 🙂

          • On August 8, 2019 at 4:51 pm,
            cfs says:

            A lot of good architecture dates to the thirties when the government was spending money, trying to end the Great Depression.
            As usual with government spending, value for money was not a major criterion.
            Many of those buildings were very expensive to heat, for example.

  5. On August 8, 2019 at 10:52 am,
    Matthew says:

    The Canadian dollar has finally filled that big June gap and looks ready for a solid rise:
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24CDW&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=9&id=p59116599445&a=681313181

  6. On August 8, 2019 at 11:08 am,
    OOTB Jerry says:

    Ned,,,,,College is a SCAM…….

    • On August 8, 2019 at 1:12 pm,
      cfs says:

      As used by many Americans, higher education is not used for its original purpose.
      It is, in general, more costly than it need be.
      It is, however, not a scam.
      It is still one of the best ways to obtain deeper knowledge in specific subjects.

      The fact that many Americans value it as a place to meet a future mate,
      or as a place to party and have fun, before settling down to contemplate a future life of work is not the fault of universities, but the sheep themselves.

      • On August 8, 2019 at 1:28 pm,
        Matthew says:

        And it is also used for indoctrination. Your masters have an agenda and it is very clear that you are unaware of it. For such a well-read guy, you have some massive blind spots.

        • On August 8, 2019 at 1:36 pm,
          OOTB Jerry says:

          Professor,…DEBT SCAM……….What Once Was, Is No More.
          College education , stop being education in 1910.

          • On August 8, 2019 at 1:39 pm,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            Half the kid in college, do not need to be there, ….nor really even qualify, …if , you go back to entry exams of 1960.

          • On August 8, 2019 at 1:44 pm,
            cfs says:

            I beg to disagree. People have changed, and not in a good way. Starting in the sixties, the average student, spoiled by wealth and more freedom.

            The universities are not blameless, because they are milking the system.

            The future is even more bleak, with 3 state Governors pushing marijuana in order to swell their tax coffers.

          • On August 8, 2019 at 1:56 pm,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            Which portion do you disagree……..
            That COLLEGE IS NOTE A SCAM…….supported by the GOVT BOARD OF EDUC., …and the govt. loans are not allowed to be included in bankruptcy…..and the student debt , is a noose around the neck of an entire generation…..

          • On August 8, 2019 at 1:56 pm,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            NOTE TO NOT…..

          • On August 8, 2019 at 2:08 pm,
            cfs says:

            I agree with you Jerry…..
            That many students do not belong in university as opposed to technical college or trade school.
            (Germany has a better system in this regard, or it used to….I am not current.)

            That student debt is not dis-chargeable is a pure government rip-off.
            (but then Banks would never loan without the government backing.)

          • On August 8, 2019 at 2:14 pm,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            Thank you Professor……I am glad we have like minds on that issue…..

          • On August 8, 2019 at 2:17 pm,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            In the late 70’s.early 80’s…according to my German partners at the time…..what you stated was correct.

        • On August 8, 2019 at 2:00 pm,
          cfs says:

          My degree in Philosophy, and graduate degrees in physics and teaching/research in engineering had no room for indoctrination.

          I never took courses in soft humanities subjects. art, literature, etc., is where most of the indoctrination takes place. There is no room in hard science and engineering.
          Of course, aided by lack of parental guidance and two-parent families.

          (Not that in my current god-forsaken state parental guidance would probably help much.)

  7. On August 8, 2019 at 1:07 pm,
    Matthew says:

    So much for yesterday’s negative divergence. The miners provided good leverage to the metals today with the silver etfs gaining 2-3% despite silver being down .5%.
    Brixton had a great day hitting +30% before closing at +26% on very good volume (near 3M shares).

  8. On August 8, 2019 at 1:51 pm,
    Silverdollar says:

    Love this guy. Ned was a bit early but was he ever correct! Good thoughts on buying physical first. Great example too of the inflation that we never have with the 1999 dollar worth $.65 today.
    Concrete example: On May 2, 2001, I purchased several 1oz. gold coins for an average price of $269.90. Today they’re valued somewhere north of $1530 apiece.
    That’s about 566% gain in price. Better than any stock I’ve ever owned long term.
    I’ve been gifting those coins to my three kids for their birthdays this year. Talk about bug eyes when they finally learn the real value!
    Thanks Ned for being part of Cory’s show and bringing the commentary that you do.

    • On August 8, 2019 at 2:15 pm,
      cfs says:

      I don’t understand the logic in “buying physical first, unless one is pessimistic about metals prices.

      We know that if metals prices are increasing, then mining companies have greater leverage than the metals to price, and thus miners LOGICALLY should out-perform metals.

    • On August 8, 2019 at 2:24 pm,
      irishtony says:

      Hi Sd….Another concrete example..
      In 1976 i bought 25 gold soverigns at £65 a piece = £1625
      Today if i bought 65 gold soverigns from bullion by post , they would cost me £7667.00.
      If i sold them to UK Scrap Gold , i would get £6806 50, i believe that sum would buy me today , what i could get for £1625 in 1976…perhaps a little more…..glad i did not leave it in the bank for all those years.

      • On August 8, 2019 at 2:37 pm,
        cfs says:

        What was an average house price in 1976, compared to today?

        • On August 8, 2019 at 3:11 pm,
          Silverdollar says:

          In 1975 I purchased a 1 year old home probably a bit above average in the mountains of Colorado for $35,000. 9 1/2% interest. Payment of $251.00 a month.
          Sold it in 1980 for $65,000. Last house payment I ever had. Those inflation profits and lots of labor paid for our next house. I built seven more over the years and lived in two of them. Today, live in a 1 year old home, purchased for $235,000 cash and appraised at $270,000 in a robust market. Property taxes should be wonderful but we can handle it…………….partially thanks to some gold and silver savings!

    • On August 8, 2019 at 2:27 pm,
      cfs says:

      Also an example of a 1999 dollar being worth $ 0.65 today, is irrelevant or mis-leading.
      If I had put a dollar in a drawer and left it there, then it would be true, but who leaves their money in a drawer?
      In 20 years from 1999 to 2019 a dollar “invested” in a bank* would now be about 2 dollars, with a purchasing power of about $1.30. So his example is over simplified.

      * as long as the bank was not in Cyprus.

      There is a time to be in metals and a time to be in stock.
      Remember the price of metals, in general historically, have NOT been dependent wholly on supply and demand.

      • On August 8, 2019 at 3:51 pm,
        Matthew says:

        Who leaves their money in a drawer? Those who own sound money. The Marxists in charge can’t inflate away the value of gold (and transfer it to themselves) which is why we have fake money in the first place. You shouldn’t have to take on counterparty risk with your savings.
        The only way to size-up the dollar accurately is to watch the gold price. Therefore, the 1999 dollar is not close to 65 cents.

        “Although gold and silver are not by nature money, money is by nature gold and silver.”
        — Karl Marx

        The world is purely fiat today because it is run by Marxists who know exactly what money is while the dumb sheep do not.

      • On August 9, 2019 at 6:25 am,
        OOTB Jerry says:

        I left my morgan silver dollars in a drawer……I received them on my paper route in the late 1950s , in exchange for my labor and material valued at $1…….NOW, they are worth $200 ……. 🙂

        • On August 9, 2019 at 6:27 am,
          OOTB Jerry says:

          I hated the banks then, …..and I am continuing the thought……. 🙂

    • On August 8, 2019 at 3:16 pm,
      Silverdollar says:

      Happy to see you read a good magazine!

  9. On August 8, 2019 at 11:32 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    Alexco Announces TSX Trading Symbol Change to (AXU)
    Aug 08, 2019 #SmartMove

    “The previous trading symbol was (AXR). The change will align the Company’s Canadian trading symbol with its US trading symbol on the NYSE American, which is AXU.”

    https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/alexco-announces-tsx-trading-symbol-change-to-axu-850622276.html

    • On August 9, 2019 at 12:01 am,
      Excelsior says:

      (SVM) Silvercorp Reports Net Income of $12.6 Million, $0.07 Per Share, and $19.9 Million Cash Flow From Operations for Q1 Fiscal 2020

      8 Aug 2019

      Q1 FISCAL YEAR 2020 HIGHLIGHTS

      – Ore production up 9% compared to the prior year quarter;

      – Silver produced and sold up 27% to approximately 1.9 million ounces, gold produced and sold up 43% to 1,000 ounces, lead produced and sold up 20% to 17.8 million pounds, and zinc produced and sold up 15% to 7.3 million pounds, compared to the prior year quarter;

      – Revenue up 1% to $45.6 million compared to $45.1 million in the prior year quarter, primarily due to the increase in metals sold and offset by 6% decrease in silver, 25% decrease in lead, and 40% decrease in zinc realized selling prices;

      – Net income attributable to equity shareholders of $12.6 million, or $0.07 per share, compared to $10.9 million or $0.06 per share in the prior year quarter;

      – Cash production cost per tonne of ore processed1 of $68.85, compared to $69.05 in the prior year quarter;

      – Cash cost per ounce of silver1, net of by-product credits, of negative $2.17, compared to negative $7.54 in the prior year quarter;

      – All-in sustaining cost per ounce of silver1, net of by-product credits, of $5.69, compared to $0.41 in the prior year quarter;

      – Cash flow from operations of $19.9 million, compared to $21.1 million in the prior year quarter;

      – Paid dividend of $2.1 million, or $0.0125 per share, to equity shareholders; and,

      – Strong balance sheet with $121.0 million in cash and cash equivalents and short-term investments, an increase of $5.7 million or 5% compared to March 31, 2019.

      http://silvercorpmetals.com/news_and_media/news/silvercorp-reports-net-income-of-126-million-007-per-share-and-199-million-cash-flow-from-operations-for-q1-fiscal-2020–

  10. On August 9, 2019 at 1:50 am,
    Excelsior says:

    (AR) (ARNGF) Argonaut Gold Announces Second Quarter 2019 Operating and Financial Results

    August 07, 2019

    “The Company reports quarterly production of 40,213 gold equivalent ounces, cash flow from operating activities before changes in operating working capital of $11.3 million and net income of $5.4 million or earnings per share of $0.03. ”

    “The Company remains on track to achieve its 2019 production guidance. ”

    https://www.argonautgold.com/English/news-and-events/news-releases/news-releases-details/2019/Argonaut-Gold-Announces-Second-Quarter-2019-Operating-and-Financial-Results/default.aspx

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