Richard Postma - The Doctor Is In – Wed 14 Aug, 2019

Doc updates us on what the gold charts are telling him

Doc has some thoughts on how the gold market will move in to the end of the year. His lower targets keep coming up as the metals keeps consolidating moves higher in a stair stepping manner.

This was recorded just after the market close yesterday.


Comments:
  1. On August 14, 2019 at 8:48 am,
    cfs says:

    Off Topic, but….

    WHY ARE YOU STILL USUING GOOGLE ?
    DO you really want to support their bias Democrat agenda ?

    Watch their whistle-blower:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g1VeElBAeas

  2. On August 14, 2019 at 9:04 am,
    Marty says:

    Interesting, more than 50% in cash designated for the metals sector. I started the year @ 28% in cash, 18%- May 1, now 6%, want to get back to 10% as Au nears 1585.

    • On August 14, 2019 at 11:16 am,
      Matthew says:

      I would be pretty unhappy if I were anywhere near 50% for the last two months. I’ve been at 100% until very recently and am perfectly happy with my current 1%.
      100%+++ (using margin) was justified when the breakouts were happening.

      I mitigate the pullbacks somewhat through rebalancing more than raising cash. It has worked very well in the past.

      • On August 14, 2019 at 11:17 am,
        Matthew says:

        I botched that. I was 100% IN until recently and now have 1% in cash.

        • On August 14, 2019 at 12:08 pm,
          Bonzo Barzini says:

          Matthew, I almost had a stroke when I read that you were now only 1% in metals! Thanks for the correction. Should I pull the plug on my small HL holding? What a turkey!

          • On August 14, 2019 at 12:11 pm,
            Bonzo Barzini says:

            Doc, how was your cruise down the Mississippi? Have you sold your HL?

          • On August 14, 2019 at 12:28 pm,
            Matthew says:

            Please don’t have a stroke, Bonzo!
            I bet HL is in the process of putting in a major low but it’s not my kind of company so I would probably sell and buy more juniors with the proceeds. I particularly don’t like all that debt.

          • On August 14, 2019 at 12:48 pm,
            Bonzo Barzini says:

            Thanks, Matthew. I hope you will let us know when you do sell 99% of your metals. But that is a long ways off. Do you own any VGZ? Adrian Day likes it and I’ve owned it for years at a loss.

          • On August 14, 2019 at 12:59 pm,
            Matthew says:

            I don’t own VGZ but it looks pretty good (even if it pulls back a bit further here):
            https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VGZ&p=W&yr=3&mn=11&dy=0&id=p48776003161&a=682411051

          • On August 14, 2019 at 1:47 pm,
            RICHARD/DOC says:

            BB, the cruise was fine and very relaxing. The best town visited was Hannibal, Mark Twain’s birth place. I hold my HL and will add more in the near future when it double bottoms.

          • On August 14, 2019 at 5:32 pm,
            Bonzo Barzini says:

            Doc, how was the food on the cruise? Did you see some great sunrises and sunsets on the river? I spent the summers of 1966 and 1970 as an oiler on riverboats towing barges all the way from Texas up to Minneapolis, and up the Ohio, Chicago, and Missouri rivers.
            Where did your cruise start and finish? Did you get down to Memphis, Natchez, Vicksburg, and New Orleans?

          • On August 14, 2019 at 5:38 pm,
            RICHARD/DOC says:

            BB, we began in St. Louis and ended in Red Wing. I did what you suggested a couple of years ago—went North against the current and with less muddy water.

          • On August 14, 2019 at 6:12 pm,
            RICHARD/DOC says:

            BB,awhile back you asked me about SLB and I said I believed it had further to fall. Well, it’s taken out its’ previous low and has further to fall. i’m waiting on it to bottom out and then I believe I’ll probably purchase it and its’ brother, HAL.

          • On August 14, 2019 at 6:30 pm,
            Bonzo Barzini says:

            Doc, yes the river is much cleaner above Cairo, IL, where the Ohio river joins it.
            I bought SLB@ 35 last spring and sold it@38.6. I also think it will fall farther and am in no hurry to buy it again, especially since Rambus said that oil will fall to 25. That might be the time to buy SLB.

  3. On August 14, 2019 at 9:24 am,
    cfs says:

    The stock market going down while dollar going up is slightly strange.

    It says either that on a net basis money is not leaving the U.S., or, more likely, the exchange rate is being manipulated up.
    (That ould be Chinese buying of treasuries, but I really don’t know.)

    • On August 14, 2019 at 9:40 am,
      Temple says:

      Dollar strength now, on top of yen strength, is not surprising at all in face of falling stocks – one confirms the other at this point. There is word of Swaps contracts and the likes in money markets that are facing a scarcity of dollars. As in 2008, more financial stress means a higher $ as counter parties, borrowers, etc. have to scramble for liquidity and BUY DOLLARS. It’s why I’ve warned for months that any big surprise move for the dollar will be UP rather than down. . .at best, Fed will mitigate after the fact (though if the USD Index goes to a new high for this move–which it is closing in on–that could well bring about a between-meetings Fed rate cut.

  4. On August 14, 2019 at 9:35 am,
    Dick Tracy says:

    There is a lot of madness out there. I keep seeing articles even in the mainstream media about how over extended the stock market is. Sell, Sell, Sell, is the cry I am hearing now. When the herd decides to act on the media’s message it will be too late. It is difficult to arrive at even the vaguest idea of the actual worth of many of the Fang stocks, even if you are a professional trader. Very few investors care about the worth of their soaring stocks, as long as prices are going up, that’s all most base value on. How many Hedge Funds are over extended and intertwined. I think about this when I see a down day like today. It’s a mad world out there and if you listen you should be able to hear the sink being emptied, and the sucking sound that Ross Perot talked about. DT

  5. On August 14, 2019 at 9:37 am,
    b says:

    Yesterday in cdn we had about a $65 drop in gold, today at this point were back up about $55.

    I dont remember who is was, but the article was saying to expect $100 swings in a day.

    Well, not panicking might be in order.

    China is now more seriously contemplating selling lots and lots of U.S. treasuries, that would cause some swinging.

    • On August 14, 2019 at 9:41 am,
      Temple says:

      “Da boyz” who allegedly suppress the gold price must have gone all-in on pot stocks and are smoking it too — they don’t know which buttons to push.

  6. On August 14, 2019 at 9:49 am,
    Dick Tracy says:

    With the legalization of marijuana in Canada the public is now using less fiat currency because they can buy pot using debit or credit. The Banksters must love this turn of events, I for one hope there isn’t an electronic liquidity crunch because the use of cash is drying up. DT

  7. On August 14, 2019 at 11:02 am,
    cfs says:

    Interesting, because I thought in the US pot growers/dealers, legal in their states, could not use Banks without facing federal problems.

  8. On August 14, 2019 at 11:25 am,
    Paul says:

    Doc when do you see gold breaking the 1800 dolar level, 3 years, 5 years, from now? What I looking for is how far out before gold finally breaks all time highs and we see this projection of gold bull call of $3000 gold price. Thanks

    • On August 14, 2019 at 1:54 pm,
      RICHARD/DOC says:

      Paul, based on the long term charts, i would say the odds are good that we see 1800 gold within the next 11/2 to 2 years from now.

      • On August 14, 2019 at 5:07 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        That seems like a reasonable target and timeframe for the yellow metal.

        • On August 14, 2019 at 5:42 pm,
          Matthew says:

          I think it will happen much sooner even if we get a big correction first.

          • On August 14, 2019 at 6:08 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            That would also be nice. Yeah, Gold may stretch a bit further, pull back and dampen investor sentiment, only to turn around and launch much higher.

            Then the mining stocks will get turbo-charged. Looking forward to that.

          • On August 14, 2019 at 8:34 pm,
            b says:

            Im agree with Mathew.
            Gold looks pretty strong to me.

  9. On August 14, 2019 at 2:52 pm,
    Dick Tracy says:

    The Dow down more than 800 points soon we will see 1000 point days. DT

    • On August 14, 2019 at 5:10 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Hello Volatility…. thanks for stopping by. Won’t you stay for a while?

      (VIX):IND Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index
      $22.10USD / +$4.58 / +26.14% gain

      • On August 14, 2019 at 5:11 pm,
        Excelsior says:
        • On August 14, 2019 at 6:04 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          #Gold and #Silver Recover Ground Amid Recession Fears
          Mauricio Carrillo – (08/14/2019)

          “fears of a recession have sparked after the 2-10 year bond yields inverted earlier in the day as the 10-Y Treasury note fell to 1.623%, below the 2-year at 1.634.”

          “According to experts who watch this event as an indicator, a recession happens, on average, 22 months following the inversion. So, fears about a recession jumped, and risk aversion flooded markets.”

          https://www.fxempire.com/news/article/gold-and-silver-recover-ground-amid-recession-fears-593213

          • On August 14, 2019 at 6:05 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            #Gold Rallies as US Yield Curve Inverts

            David Becker – (08/14/2019)

            Gold prices close at fresh 2-year highs

            https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/article/gold-price-prediction-gold-rallies-as-us-yield-curve-inverts-593316

          • On August 14, 2019 at 6:35 pm,
            Marty says:

            Excelsior, I see a Blue Sky Uranium hit a multi year low today. ( A Grosso Group play, same as Golden Error). The like Collin Kettell of Palisaderadio for his work. Seems like a really good guy. I just finished watching a video touting Blue Sky by Kettell. Don’t know how recent it was.
            Bottom line: Haven’t owned/ followed the yellow metal since Fukushima.
            Do you have 2 favorite Song?

          • On August 14, 2019 at 6:40 pm,
            Marty says:

            I like Kettell for his podcast work

          • On August 14, 2019 at 7:25 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Hi Marty, Yes – agreed that Collin does a good job over a Palisade Ratio on his interviews. I don’t know much about Blue Sky Uranium, but from those I respect in the industry most say to pass on it. It isn’t in my top dozen companies, but there is a bit of chatter about it, so I’ll need to look closer.

            ____________________________________

            As for Uranium miners – I do follow the sector very closely and have since 2010 before Fukushima and since it.

            There are a number of factors playing into the nuclear sector at present:

            1) Kazakhstan has dominated production for years flooding the spot markets and utilities with cheap Uranium, but even they have started to realize that isn’t a good plan and are acting as the global swing producer. They IPO’d their state run company this year, and have realized it is wise to ease up on the ISR production some.

            2) Russian underfeeding from prior processing centrifuges have continued to wring out more Uranium since soure products slowed down, which was adding to the secondary market in a major way, but now that has finally slowed down.

            3) The US Dept of Energy was dumping more supply into the secondary markets for a decade, but they were supposed to phase that out in 2013. However, under Obama, they ignored the legal mandates of how much the DOE could put into the spot markets, and this only further crippled the uranium mining sector. At least under the Trump administration they put a stop to that, drying up a bit more of the secondary market (Finally!!).

            4) Cameco put one of its major mines on care and maintenance (some believe never to be reopened), and scaled back production. They’ve been buying in teh spot markets in the mid 20’s to fill contractual agreements in the 40’s and 50’s, as has Ur-Energy. It makes more sense to buy the Uranium on spot markets and sell to contracts than to produce U308 at this point.

            5) Paladin shuttered some of it’s large Uranium Mines, Just recently Uranium Resources of Australian put it’s mine on care and maintenance. Energy Fuels is producing Uranium but just stockpiling it instead of selling it since they are holding out for higher prices and all their off-take contracts expired. Peninsula energy, a small US producer, just quick producing on their ISR mines as well. Orano (previously Areva) has divested some of their Uranium projects and just focused more on the fuel cycle and processing & power generation. That’s pretty much all the producers putting their mines on standby, throttled back, or closed and likely not to reopen.

            6) the Petition for Section 232 (which would have required US utilities companies to by 25% quotas from domestic producers) was temporarily stalled, as the Trump administration didn’t want to enact quotas just yet, but recognized the national security nature of the supply/demand dislocations in the Nuclear sector. For now they have a 90 day working group investigating the entire nuclear sector.

            This Section 232 proposal had spiked a number of US companies for overa a year and I had fantastic gains in Energy Fuels (UUUU), Ur-Energy (URG), and Uranium Energy Corp (UEC), but after the quotas were rejected, most of those stocks pulled back about 40%. As a result I’ve been adding a bit to positions in those 3 US companies, along with AEC (a small developer that inherited most of the US uranium mining assets and a mill from the controversial Uranium One)

            7) In the Athabasca Basin of Canada, almost all the projects are moving very sluggishly because the world is awash in Uranium, and doesn’t need exploration companies but needs Utilities to come back into the market and start setting up new contracts in the high 40’s or low 50’s. This is what will finally move the prices and until then, all the exploration in the world isn’t going to matter that much.

            As far as the Canadian companies in the Athabasca, (NXE) NexGen is the clear leader of the pack with the most well-endowed asset, the highest grade, and most importantly very few underground water issues. Most of the issues Cameco had is with underground water, and having to freeze the walls for huge spans of time to even mine that far down. NexGen could even get taken over by Cameco or BHP at one point as the development asset of choice. There is also Fission (FCU) and Purepoint (PTU) and ALX Uranium (ALX) are nearby, but those will have water challenges as well. Denison (DNN) has a few properties in that part of the Athabasca, but also a large development project up closer to Cameco’s property. It is on track to be able to produce with ISR instead of Underground for a portion of production and the most advanced developer there.

            8) In other parts of the world, I’m not as interested really. In Gold or Silver then I’m fine getting a bit more exotic, but Uranium mining is a different animal and faced far more public distrust and communities are just uneducated so their fears block out the rational mind and facts and there is pushback and NIMBY.

            The big Uranium mine and processing center Berkeley had in Spain was ready to go and faced all kinds of public backlash. Some of the mines in Western Uranium are moving foward, but many new ones are prevented from moving foward. There are some companies in Africa and ex-soviet countries, but I’m not a fan of those jurisdictions for Uranium miners. Some like the new Deep Yellow (ex-Paladin guys in the Rick Rule cabal) and some like Goviex (GXU) but I’d rather have exposure to it through (DNN) Denison who owns 20-25% of the project since they spun them out the African projects to work on.

            There are still about 80 Uranium miners (even though you hear there are only a few), but the truth is there are only a dozen you’d want to own.
            __________________________________

            Right now I have a lower exposure to Uranium miners, as I’m far more focused on Silver and Gold mining at present, but I hold 5 stocks:

            #Uranium Stocks I own:

            Energy Fuels Inc (Insitu and Hardrock producer – Largest US company)
            Ur-Energy Inc (Insitu Producer that still has longer term contracts for 18 months and are actually still making money)
            UEC Uranium Energy Corp – Developer of ISR assets in US (TX & WY) and Paraguay
            Nexgen Energy Ltd – Largest and best development project in the Athabasca
            Anfield Energy Inc – Developer in US with partnership with Uranium One.

            ____________________

            > Other Uranium Stocks I have owned in the past and may buy back or ones I follow:

            *Denison Mines Corp – (developer & prior producer & manages U participation fund)
            *Lightbridge Corp – (nuclear fuel clad business w/ help from Orano)
            *Centrus Energy Corp – (nuclear fuel processor and enricher)
            *UEX Corp (peppy exploration stock in Athabasca)
            *Peninsula Energy LTD (small US ISR producer on standby)
            *Azarga Uranium (exploration and development with ISR focus)
            *Purepoint Uranium Corp – (Athabasca explorer near Nexgen and Fission)
            ALX Uranium Corp – (Athabasca explorer and prospect generator – JV with Denison)
            Skyharbour Resources – (prospect generator of U projects)
            Berkley Energy LTD – ( developer and near-term producer in Spain)
            Bannerman Resources (Aussie developer on path to production)
            Western Uranium & Vanadium (US development play, using ablation).

            I could go on…. but that is probably a lot of info to digest.

  10. On August 14, 2019 at 6:33 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    (MMG) (MMNGF) Metallic Minerals Provides Exploration Update on Central Keno Hill Targets Including Identification Of Two New Multi-Kilometer Soil Anomalies At The Keno Silver Project

    August 14, 2019

    “Bonanza-grade Keno-style silver mineralization including samples of over 1,000 g/t silver at the Caribou and Homestake advanced-stage targets with eight additional earlier stage targets that have not yet been drill tested”

    https://www.metallic-minerals.com/news/2019/metallic-minerals-provides-exploration-update-on-central-keno-hill-targets-including-identification-of-two-new-multi-kilometer/

    • On August 14, 2019 at 8:05 pm,
      Dick Tracy says:

      Thanks Ex, I like the price and the share count. I will be watching for a trading entry point for MMG. DT

      • On August 15, 2019 at 5:18 am,
        Excelsior says:

        Yep – Alexco’s neighbors. They’ve previously hit bonanza grades at Keno Hill just like AXU, and even the previous team at Monster Mining had some ridiculously high exploration results.

        Greg Johnson at the helm of MMG, who used to be in NovaGold and most recently Wellgreen Platinum before they changed things up to become Nickel Creek Platinum. The teams today are mostly from those 2 companies. https://www.metallic-minerals.com/corporate/management/

        Greg is also running Group Ten Metals (PGE) concurrently and they share resources, teams, and have synergies with Metallic Minerals (MMG).

    • On August 15, 2019 at 4:38 pm,
      Marty says:

      Excelsior, you’re a Big Hearted guys, your reward will be Rich.
      Thanks for the tutorial, my friend.

      • On August 15, 2019 at 6:06 pm,
        Matthew says:

        +1
        I think he’s blessed with a happy gene and and it shows in his tirelessness as well as his good nature.

        • On August 16, 2019 at 3:35 am,
          Excelsior says:

          Thanks for the kind word guys! I do enjoy talking to great folks like you and have fun looking at all these companies and potential opportunities. Ever Upward!

  11. On August 14, 2019 at 6:41 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    (KNT) (KNTNF) K92 Mining – Corporate Presentation – August 2019

    Kainantu Gold Mine – Growing Production & Transformative Discoveries

    https://www.k92mining.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/k92-august-2019.pdf

    • On August 15, 2019 at 5:13 am,
      Excelsior says:

      (KNT) (KNTNF)K92 Mining Inc. Releases 2019 Q2 Financial Results, Increases 2019 Production Guidance and Decreases 2019 Cost Guidance

      @nasdaq on 15 Aug 2019

      – For the three months (brackets = six months) ended June 30, 2019, K92 sold 18,824 (37,240) gold oz for the period at a cost of US$551/oz ($472/oz1) and an all-in sustaining cost (AISC) of US$681/oz1 (US$618/oz)

      – Head grade of 16.7 g/t Au (six months ended June 30, 2019 – 19.6 g/t Au)
      Revenue less Cost of Sales for the three months (brackets six months) ended June 30, 2019 was US$10,784,119 ($25,456,759)
      Increased production guidance for 2019 to 72,000 to 80,000 gold equivalent (AuEq) oz (originally 68,000 to 75,000 AuEq oz).

      – Decreased cost guidance for 2019 to cash costs of $560/oz to $600/oz (originally $580/oz to $620/oz1) and #AISC of $720/oz to $760/oz (originally $780/oz to $820/oz)

      https://ceo.ca/@nasdaq/k92-mining-inc-releases-2019-q2-financial-results

  12. On August 15, 2019 at 5:21 am,
    Excelsior says:

    (JAG) (JAGGF) Jaguar Mining Reports Second Quarter 2019 Financial and Operating Results

    by @newswire on 15 Aug 2019

    https://ceo.ca/@newswire/jaguar-mining-reports-second-quarter-2019-financial

    • On August 15, 2019 at 7:32 am,
      Excelsior says:

      (RNX) (RNKLF) RNC Announces Second Quarter 2019 Results; Integration of Higginsville Gold Operations Proceeding on Target

      by @newswire on 15 Aug 2019

      Paul Huet, Chairman and CEO, commented, “We are very pleased at the pace of the integration of the Beta Hunt Mine and the recently acquired Higginsville Gold Operations (HGO). Already within a month, we are realizing a 25% reduction in Beta Hunt processing costs. Additionally, we are thrilled that the first material was mined from the HGO’s Baloo open pit in early August. Baloo, in addition to Beta Hunt, provides a second source of quality feed for the HGO mill and has a very short haul distance of only 14 km. With the recent robust gold resource update and increasing production at the Beta Hunt Mine, in combination with the lower cost and flexibility to process our material through our HGO mill, gives us great confidence in a strong second half of 2019 as RNC continues to evolve into a more stable producer.”

      https://ceo.ca/@newswire/rnc-announces-second-quarter-2019-results-integration

      • On August 15, 2019 at 7:44 am,
        Excelsior says:

        While overall that was good news the market didn’t like their reduction in gold production last quarter.

        “Gold mined production for the second quarter totaled 11,056 ounces compared to 13,320 ounces in the second quarter of 2018. Production was lower due to the planned temporary ramp down of bulk mining during 40,000 meter resource drilling program at Beta Hunt. The gold mined grade in the second quarter was 2.59 g/t, 18% lower than in the second quarter of 2018 due to a higher level of low-grade areas mined during the quarter. A planned increase in capital development was initiated to open up a series of new production areas.”

        _____________________________________________________________________

        When these types of sell off occur due to missed guidance, I usually see them as opportunities to add to positions during the negative sentiment, looking at the company’s overall plans and if they’ll be outperforming guidance on the next few quarters. That appears to be the case with Royal Nickel Corp on their Gold production so even though it’s selling off hard today, I’m bullish for the balance of the year.

        • On August 15, 2019 at 7:56 am,
          Excelsior says:

          Wow it is total knock down drag out chit-storm over at ceo.ca in the RNX room with 284 people online taking swings at one another. Maybe I’ll wait to see if this is driven down even further to add a bit more. Yikes!!

          https://ceo.ca/rnx?e33c5a99a983

          • On August 15, 2019 at 11:33 am,
            Matthew says:

            Looks like last year’s 16x move filled the stock with dumb money.

          • On August 16, 2019 at 3:40 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Yes, there is plenty of that dumb retail herdthink money the flocked in when they blasted out those “jewelry box” chunks of gold – “specimens” as they are calling them.
            _____________________________________________________

            New Discovery Yields 9,000 Ounces Of High Grade Coarse Gold From Single Cut At Beta Hunt Mine
            (Sept. 9, 2018)

            “New discovery includes 95kg specimen stone containing an estimated 2,440 ounces of gold and a 63kg specimen stone containing an estimated 1,620 ounces of gold”

            http://www.rncminerals.com/2018-09-09-New-Discovery-Yields-9-000-ounces-of-High-Grade-Coarse-Gold-from-Single-Cut-at-Beta-Hunt-Mine

          • On August 16, 2019 at 3:50 am,
            Excelsior says:

            While those are stunning bonanza grade results, they were in a very small package, and the question that remains is can they keep finding results like that. They did find another highgrade vein this summer (I’ll post that below), but the question is can they keep hitting, expand the resource, and get their mine profitability and production rates up.

            Personally I also like their Dumont Nickel project, and that is why I was interested in this company, as they were trying to sell their Gold producing part of the company last year before the big discovery. Now they are more focused on the Gold story, and the insanely high grade is why all the investors flocked in last year. It was very much like the Novo Resources “metal detectors and gold nuggets” moment. Those first to specimens photos came out and it really was “rock porn” for geologists as they truly are spectacular. This raised everyone’s eyebrows to if there was more, as it would change the economics and be a company maker. Then, like always happens, gravity returned to the story and the valuations in peoples minds were counterbalanced against the current reality at the mine and the pricing came back down. Again, it does still have huge potential, they did just add in the Higginsville Gold Operations to the mix and they are bringing their costs down. I still don’t believe their Nickel assets are being properly valued and still see a great deal of opportunity there.

            ____________________________________________________

            RNC Minerals Discovers New High-Grade Gold Occurrence Below The Father’s Day Vein Discovery
            (June 5, 2019)

            “New Discovery contains 987 ounces of coarse visible gold; supports geological model predicting coarse gold beneath Father’s Day Vein”

            http://www.rncminerals.com/2019-06-05-RNC-Minerals-Discovers-New-High-Grade-Gold-Occurrence-Below-the-Fathers-Day-Vein-Discovery

          • On August 16, 2019 at 3:53 am,
            Excelsior says:

            RNC Minerals Files Dumont Nickel-Cobalt Project Updated Feasibility Study
            (July 11, 2019)

            Updated Feasibility Study Delivers $920 M NPV8%

            http://www.rncminerals.com/2019-07-11-RNC-Minerals-Files-Dumont-Nickel-Cobalt-Project-Updated-Feasibility-Study

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