Erik Wetterling - The Hedgeless Horseman – Thu 21 Nov, 2019

Here are a couple stocks we think offer some opportunity

Erik Wetterling, Founder of The Hedgeless Horseman joined me today to share a stock he is watching and thinks offer a great risk/reward opportunity. With drill results upcoming and the share price at multi-year lows he is looking at GFG Resources. We also discuss the recent discovery by Awale Resources.

Click here to visit Erik’s site.


Comments:
  1. On November 21, 2019 at 5:43 pm,
    cfs says:
  2. On November 21, 2019 at 6:57 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    Tax loss season = Opportunity for Gold and Silver Investors

    Lobo Tiggre – Thursday November 21, 2019

    “Precious metals are still in “correct and consolidate” mode, which has many resource investors worried. With Tax Loss Season heating up, I can’t blame them. But I do see this situation as a terrific opportunity, and I’ll tell you why.”

    “To me, the critical factor is that—whatever Powell says—the Fed’s easy money policy is in high gear.”

    https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-11-21/Tax-loss-season-opportunity-for-gold-and-silver-investors.html

    • On November 21, 2019 at 6:58 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      David Wilson – Gold is an Attractive Asset for Today’s Monetary Environment

      by @PalisadeRadio on 21 Nov 2019 #AudioInterview

      https://ceo.ca/@palisaderadio/david-wilson-gold-is-an-attractive-asset-for-todays-monetary-environment

    • On November 21, 2019 at 7:37 pm,
      Matthew says:

      “With tax loss season heating up”??? Most miners bottomed 5 weeks ago and only those who bought late in the summer rally have significant losses.
      SILJ is still up 13.2% since bottoming 5 weeks ago and 52% since the May 28 low.

      Gold could make a marginal new low but I doubt that the miners will (including GDX).

      • On November 21, 2019 at 9:39 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        The Silver miners have held up fairly well, but there are are some that have continued pulling back lately, but more so in the Gold companies. There have been a number of Gold miners that have continuing correcting, and I believe that is what Lobo is discussing. I just did a tax loss sale in McEwen yesterday for example, and had a hard time pick just one place to put the funds, as there are so many that have pulled back that look attractively priced, so I’m spreading the funds around to bolster a few names I already have positions in. There are some good bargains right now and some are likely fueled by some tax loss selling at this point in the year and where they are on their unique charts and short term trajectories.

        • On November 21, 2019 at 11:31 pm,
          Matthew says:

          Of course there are always losers to be sold in every sector at this time of year but I think it’s minimal this year and is not “heating up.”
          On average, the gold miners also bottomed 5 weeks ago and have outperformed the metal since then.
          Today’s selling was clearly technical — driven by the charts.

          • On November 22, 2019 at 5:20 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Yes, the miners have held up better than expected in general, but there are some that pulled back down pretty hard from August, and there are some developers and explorers that never really moved up that much this year and actually went down even further than where they were to new recent lows over the last few months. Those are the one that have had a pickup in selling pressure lately, and that selling volume seems to indicate tax loss selling is in full effect.

            I agree with Lobo’s general premise that from now to year end, spotting these sell-downs can be a great opportunity to position for the seasonal move up in Q1 2020.

            I’ve been a big proponent of buying between from Thanksgiving to the lead up to Christmas for the last 5 years in a row, and it has been a lucrative and very easy trade year after year. There are no guarantees we’ll see a big upmove in Jan & Feb, but so far history has rhymed each year.

            Good luck to all in their investing, and at least keep an eye out for capitulation moves in miners on your watchlist as it may be an opportune time to be on the buying side of those moves down.

          • On November 22, 2019 at 7:08 am,
            Matthew says:

            The volume spikes that we saw on 10/11, 11/7, and yesterday were clearly technically driven and overall volume has been (bullishly) falling since the miners peaked in September.
            So I still don’t see any “heating up” due to tax loss selling.
            Yes, there are good and great deals everywhere but most of them are due mostly to a plain old correction.
            Remember, I’m talking about the sector in general, not individual examples (which are all over the place in terms of performance). Even big ol’ GDX is still up over 30% since bottoming in May so, overall, there’s not a lot of tax selling to be done this year relative to last year.

          • On November 22, 2019 at 7:10 am,
            Matthew says:

            You can see the volume spikes I mentioned, here:
            https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=0&id=p17465174983

          • On November 22, 2019 at 9:05 am,
            Wolfster says:

            I may be wrong but I would be Leary of any plays that have sold off cuz of tax loss selling…..there would have to be an underlying problem for any plays to be down in this environment to justify someone selling for the tax loss. The only scenario where I see it possible with a good play is where people bought at the top …..like say a cantex but those are already spec plays really

          • On November 22, 2019 at 9:11 am,
            Matthew says:

            I agree, Wolfster. On net, tax loss selling is worth thinking about this year.

          • On November 22, 2019 at 12:29 pm,
            Matthew says:

            *Tax loss selling is NOT worth thinking about this year. 😲

          • On November 22, 2019 at 12:43 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            While you guys are thinking about not thinking about tax loss selling deals, I’m going to buying the deals (and already have been) 😉

            Cheers!

          • On November 22, 2019 at 12:49 pm,
            Matthew says:

            As you should, Ex. 👍

          • On November 22, 2019 at 1:02 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            I’m working on raising one last batch of funds to deploy mid December and at that point will be all in.

        • On November 22, 2019 at 6:08 am,
          Chad says:

          Excelsior,
          What did you buy? I am looking for some bargains that are down.
          Thanks,
          Chad

          • On November 22, 2019 at 7:50 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Well most of my risk capital was already allocated to optionality plays and for me McEwen was a more “safer” optionality producer. As a result I moved some money over to Resolute mining, Roxgold, Argonaut gold, and K92.

            For more of a deal in riskier Gold producers, l I also added to Northern Vertex, Harte, Scorpio, and Jaguar.

            For more risk and also topped off the Silver/Zinc/Lead plays Cantex, Discovery Metals, and Excellon.

          • On November 22, 2019 at 3:17 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Victoria Gold is a solid gold producer as well, and it has had a healthy pullback and share consolidation, so it is tempting at these levels. If it pulls back some more I may snag some shares.

  3. On November 21, 2019 at 6:59 pm,
    markedtofuture says:

    FBI Official Under Criminal Investigation For Fabricating Evidence In Russiagate Probe

    You know it’s bad when… CNN is leaking bombshells ahead of the report…

    https://www.zerohedge.com/political/fbi-official-under-criminal-investigation-fabricating-evidence-russiagate-probe

  4. On November 21, 2019 at 9:23 pm,
    cfs says:
  5. On November 21, 2019 at 9:31 pm,
    cfs says:

    On Thursday, Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC) announced that Horowitz would release his report on December 9, and would testify before the Senate Judiciary Committee two days later, December 11.Just under 3 weeks to wait….

  6. On November 21, 2019 at 9:45 pm,
    cfs says:
  7. On November 21, 2019 at 9:55 pm,
    cfs says:

    FAKE NEWS:

    https://twitter.com/TS_SCI_MAJIC12/status/1182008427930931200

    IS DANGEROUS TO OUR DEMOCRACY.

  8. On November 22, 2019 at 6:45 am,
    Blue says:

    Where does Axu have strong support?
    Its been weak lately, im very tempted to buy some.

    • On November 22, 2019 at 7:57 am,
      Matthew says:

      The 200 day MA is at 1.48 and there’s a lot of other MA and EMA support in the area. Then there’s the February-March trading zone of support in the 1.25 to 1.40 area…
      https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AXU&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p13991608126&a=617104424

      • On November 22, 2019 at 8:09 am,
        Blue says:

        Thank’s Matthew,
        The water use license for Bermingham has been delayd so I suppose short term speculative traders are selling.

        • On November 22, 2019 at 9:09 am,
          Matthew says:

          You know, gold looks pretty fantastic if we look at it and the weekly version of those MAs. They’re all bunched-up (finally) and pointing up…
          https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=W&yr=9&mn=0&dy=0&id=p62306950319

          • On November 22, 2019 at 9:33 am,
            Blue says:

            I really feel it in my bones by looking to the miners behaviour that they are a very good buying opportunity right here right now. The next upleg is not far away and I don’t mind if I don’catch the absolute bottom in this correction. When gold is 1700 next year it doesn’t matter.

            I like what this dude is talking about😀
            https://youtu.be/NXA9A68wfaI

          • On November 22, 2019 at 10:15 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Agreed Blue. Christopher Aaron is a sharp technician.

          • On November 22, 2019 at 12:01 pm,
            Matthew says:

            Blue, I completely agree that the miners are a great buy right here right now and it’s a good sign that most observers would probably disagree.

  9. On November 22, 2019 at 7:35 am,
    Blue says:

    Well, I just bought Axu at 1.57 usd and im in for next years big year for Axu with potential production decision 👌.

    • On November 22, 2019 at 9:50 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Well played blue. I’m all stocked up on AXU too.

      • On November 22, 2019 at 10:52 am,
        Blue says:

        Thank’s Ex!
        This time I will have Axu as my big bet on silver and I think they will go bananas when silver goes up in the low to mid twentys. I was listening to a really good interview with John Kaiser
        It was a bit old from dec 2018 but You learn something new anyway and I like sometimes to listen to old analysis and see if they got it right and to be informed with old but important information about the company. John liked Axu because they had something positive that their competitors didnt have, a cleaning up business that generates revenue of millions usd. Listen and you will understand.

        https://youtu.be/1Rl43up2A3U

        • On November 22, 2019 at 12:50 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          Yes, I often go back and revisit old interviews (especially ones on companies or area plays) and get good nuggets of insights. Good stuff.

          (AXU) Alexco is one of my larger Silver positions and I agree about it going bananas next year as they move into production, keep hitting paydirt on exploration, and as the Silver price rises back into the low to mid $20s range.

          To a lessor extent, I’ve also got a good position going in (MMG) Metallic Minerals, as they are Alexco’s neighbors at Keno Hill and have had some very promising exploration work (as did the prior operator there- MAN – Monster Mining)

          We’ll see how it goes in 2020!

          • On November 22, 2019 at 2:15 pm,
            Blue says:

            Good luck Ex!
            I’ve heard about MMG👌

  10. On November 22, 2019 at 10:28 am,
    Charles says:

    I have been buying selectively in some stocks for the last month or so. Still looking to by some in early to mid December. I sold some CDE yesterday on the nice advance it had and bought some more IPT yesterday as I feel it is pretty washed out and not to far from a turnaround. For the silver miners that have corrected, IPT seems like it is more advanced in its decline having already touched the 200-day and 300-day moving average.

    • On November 22, 2019 at 11:00 am,
      Blue says:

      I cannot understand how some stocks like Ipt can give back almost every cent from the last move up It should have been holding up better but I realize that Ipt is always flying under the radar and is not known by the big investors. I think its very undervalued with enormous exploration upside.

      • On November 22, 2019 at 12:53 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        +1 Good points guys regarding IPT. While I’m excited about their optionality upside on production from improving metals prices, I’m almost more excited about their potential for solid exploration success on their vast properties. They’re finding Gold along with the Silver in some locations and if they can turn more of a profit from production with higher metals prices, then they can really get busy on exploration.

      • On November 22, 2019 at 1:11 pm,
        Matthew says:

        Sprott owned a lot of it during the last bull market and I’m sure he’ll want to during this one. If he doesn’t yet, it could be that management is driving a hard bargain (re: price/warrants) and I hope that’s the case. However, considering the way the shares have been trading lately, I wouldn’t be surprised if a financing that includes Sprott is announced soon. I won’t be happy if Sprott is treated unnecessarily well since IPT would have no trouble raising capital without him.

        • On November 22, 2019 at 1:12 pm,
          Matthew says:

          I like Sprott, btw, BUT…

        • On November 22, 2019 at 3:01 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          Craig Hemke asked Eric about IPT on one of the recent Sprott Weekly Wraps and he said he had a small position in it, but it isn’t one of his primary Silver stock positions.

          Sprott has big positions in USAS, DSV, KTN, SVE, EXN, and MMG for his main Silver positions. (I own all of those except SVE).

          • On November 22, 2019 at 6:05 pm,
            Matthew says:

            Yup, a far cry from the large stake he had before the 2011 top. Fred Davidson mentioned Sprott’s interest in the company to Corey recently which is why I have to wonder if a deal is in the works.
            Considering the terms Sprott usually obtains for himself, I’m not quite the fanboy of his actions that many others often seem to be. Like I said, IPT doesn’t need to bend over backwards for anyone so I hope Fred doesn’t. Very few miners have enjoyed such prudent management and it shows in the share count (and no share rollbacks). Most peers have diluted the hell out of shareholders on bad terms despite being a fraction of IPTs age.
            Too many companies have given away too much upside for the privilege of attaching a big name to themselves.

          • On November 24, 2019 at 8:17 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Yes, Agreed with many of the points raised, and it depended on the deals each company made with the “whale investors” and how badly they needed funds, and how much they had to raise.

            IPT is very well run, and have been good stewards of investor capital by not trying to grow to fast requiring to many raises, but rather grew organically, and thus kep their share counts down.

            I will say, Eric Sprotts investments have been far more fair that what we see from Rick Rule & Marin Katusa often extracting ridiculous amounts of warrants and diluting down existing shareholders far worse. Eric has been a white knight coming in a funding the Jr sector when hardly any other institution funds have been and allowing companies to keep their lights on, so he can get good terms, but he also legitimately wants to support these companies to help them make their next discover or build their next mine.

            Overall, IPT has spares investors ridiculous capital raises and contained their sharecount, but there is a piece of me that wants to see them go a bit larger, get more drills turning on more properties, and get more mines going simultaneously with a larger staff as we are about to hit a great runway for Silver & Gold price appreciation, and I’d like to see them really make an “impact” on all their properties potential in my lifetime. 🙂

            Cheers!

          • On November 24, 2019 at 8:19 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Sorry there were a number of spelling a gramatical errors in that post, but you get the main idea. Damn I wish we had an edit feature after we post.

  11. On November 22, 2019 at 11:24 am,
    Charles says:

    Blue I agree. It has corrected far further than I would have thought initially, but when you look at all of the lows, it is carving out a really nice long term rounded bottom and where we were yesterday is pretty much right at that rounded bottom again so it all seems to be progressing according to plan from my perspective. I’ve learned the hard way that you have to take profits when these thinly traded stocks make a move. If you do, you can catch some outsized moves, but if you don’t you generally return almost to where you started. I have been holding off purchasing AXU for this reason as well as some of the other silver names as I think some of them will drop further in December. I have some left that I didn’t sell after the recent run, so I won’t totally miss out. Hopefully I am not being penny wise and pound foolish.

    • On November 22, 2019 at 12:58 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Charles you’re doing great. Even if the miners start to rebound in December ahead of schedule (which I do not expect and agree it is more likely the miners will still drift a bit lower over the next few weeks), then it really doesn’t matter for the long game.

      We should see many of these Silver miners really take off in 2020 and as long as folks get positioned by year-end they should be in front of all the new buying at the beginning of next year, and there is plenty of time to be positioned before Silver gets up into the $20s again and beyond.

      The other thing is that investors can buy into a position in tranches and don’t have to try and time things perfectly all in one motion. I often buy 2-4 layers of a position to get one fully in place, and don’t feel the need to do a “once and done” type of approach in such volatile markets.

      Ever Upward!

  12. On November 22, 2019 at 11:41 am,
    Blue says:

    Charles, you will do really well taking some profits along this bullmarket. Eric Sprott who dont know the future but is really successful in the resources sector thought that tax loss selling would end in the middle of dec like 15 dec and that the miners should have a good move up into the new year and 2020

    https://youtu.be/W2_8566qsw4

    • On November 22, 2019 at 1:00 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      I concur, and usually finish up my Tax Loss Selling shopping spree by mid December.

      In years past it was due to getting in front of Fed babble, and again there is no guarantee it will play out the same, but typically there is a ton of new buying in the miners in late December, Jan, and Feb and we saw a Q1 Rally in 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, and 2019.

      Will it happen again in 2020?

  13. On November 22, 2019 at 11:46 am,
    Charles says:

    Blue – Thanks for the post. I will give Mr. Sprott a listen.

  14. On November 22, 2019 at 12:55 pm,
    Matthew says:

    The miners are getting ready to confirm gold in a big way. If they don’t, it will be an important failure…
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=USERX&p=W&yr=9&mn=0&dy=0&id=p71267904794&a=701945960