Weekend Show – Sat 4 Jan, 2020

Hour 1 – This Hour Is For The Metals Investor

Full First Hour

First off a very happy New Year to everyone of you! I hope 2020 is healthy and prosperous – especially in the markets 😉

There’s already been a lot to talk about for market moves in just 2 days of trading. Be sure to checkout the daily editorials this week to stay up to date.

In this weekend’s show I spend a lot of time talking metals and metals stocks. As a bonus there are a number of metals stocks mentioned in this hour. If you have any questions or stocks you would like to see on the show please email me – Fleck@kereport.com. I am working hard to get some of the recently recommended companies on the show but a lot of people were away from the office over the past couple weeks.

  • Segment 1 – Sean Brodrick kicks off the show with comments on what will drive gold, oil, and the US dollar in 2020.
  • Segment 2 – Chris Temple shares his thoughts on whether we will see inflation or deflation in 2020.
  • Segment 3 – Doc is next up with a look at the gold chart as well as sharing his thoughts on Skeena Resources and McEwen Mining.
  • Segment 4 – Dave Erfle wraps up the first hour by recapping some of his best wins of 2019 and the stocks that he likes heading into 2020.

Sean Brodrick
Chris Temple
Doc
Dave Erfle

Here’s a picture that Chris asked me to add to the posting relating to our inflation/deflation discussion.


Comments:
  1. On January 4, 2020 at 3:39 am,
    cfs says:

    Thanks guys, Happy New Year.

  2. On January 4, 2020 at 3:48 am,
    cfs says:

    How does Sean expect higher oil after the Saudi-Kuwait deal ?

    https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Why-The-Saudis-Suddenly-Agreed-To-This-Mega-Oil-Deal.html

  3. On January 4, 2020 at 4:13 am,
    NIgel says:

    Happy New Year everyone. All I wanted to say is that McEwen Mining has cost me quite a lot of money over the last few years – it always looks as if it’s about to turn up then just fades away again. While what Doc said makes sense, my personal history tells me to stay away.

    • On January 4, 2020 at 7:34 am,
      bonzo b. says:

      Rob McEwen made me a lot of money when he ran GG long ago, and I want to invest in any company he is running, especially as he owns over 20% of MUX and takes no salary or stock options. He makes money only if the stock goes up, and let’s hope MUX will find a lot more gold in Canada and Nevada.

      • On January 4, 2020 at 12:21 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        I’ve been in an out of MUX for years, and respect Rob McEwen, but I really was disappointed with how things were run the last year, including doing that big financing recently during a corrective move (instead of at much higher pricing).

        He’s been so vocally against companies cutting a streaming deal to finance projects for it eating into future margins, but for investors holding for the medium term, they are far less dilutive to the share count than the repeated dilutive capital raises they’ve done. In addition, their Argentina exposure hasn’t been a strong positive for them, but the recent political situation with the tax laws on miners being reversed was encouraging. They picked up Black Fox from Primero for a song and a dance in Ontario, but haven’t delivered as big as anticipated so far, but their exploration work is encouraging. They did get Gold Bar producing and it is improving, so we’ll see where it goes.

        I sold out of 1/2 of MUX position in late August for a nice gain, but then was disappointed in the financing news in mid-November and sold out my remaining position on that news the week before Thanksgiving at a slight loss.

        However, when MUX continued selling off to the point were it was looking over done, so I added back in an initial tranche right before Christmas (once I had waited the 30 day period for tax reasons). I’m willing to give Rob M. and team another shot at things for 2020 and expect them to have a better year than in 2019, but my position size is much smaller this time.

        I figure since his name is attached, and he has such a big stake in his company’s shares, that he’s going to work like crazy to get this company turned around, and I love a good turnaround opportunity.

  4. On January 4, 2020 at 4:26 am,
    Ozeki Ken says:

    Mr Brodrick KNOWS that the drone attack on the Saudi facility came from Iran! Embarrissing!

  5. On January 4, 2020 at 6:04 am,
    cfs says:

    I HATE the word “inflation” being used except for tires and air-beds.

    The word inflation by itself is NAKED…..meaningless.

    There is “monetary inflation” = increasing money supply. (This is what economists mean by inflation.)
    There is “price inflation” = increasing prices. (This is what the average citizen means by inflation.)

    • On January 4, 2020 at 8:18 am,
      Matthew says:

      Monetary inflation is what real economists mean by inflation.
      Keynesians are the reason the average citizen only thinks about price inflation. Keyenesian economics is taught everywhere because it justifies/validates the unsound (thieving) actions of the government/Federal Reserve.
      It is by design that most people still don’t know that price inflation is not natural, price DEflation is.

      • On January 4, 2020 at 9:46 am,
        cfs says:

        I could not agree more, Matthew, price Deflation is natural because of the inventiveness of man.
        The best inflation is zero, but the liars and thieves that are politicians always like as much inflation as they can get away with, because people don’t realize who causes it.

    • On January 5, 2020 at 3:39 pm,
      catfish says:

      Good comment; an important distinction that’s rarely made.

      And it gets even more complex with the fractional-reserve banking and various machinations that are allowed by the whole flimsy financial system — it’s extremely difficult (if possible) to get a grasp on where the “money” (in its various forms — base-money, M1, etc) is and how much actually exists.

  6. On January 4, 2020 at 6:05 am,
    cfs says:

    THERE IS NT NECESSARY ANY IMMEDIATE CORRELATION BETWEEN MONETARY INFLATION AND PRICE INFLATION. There is always some delay in any correlation.

  7. On January 4, 2020 at 6:24 am,
    cfs says:

    It seems to me the world is changing the use/meaning of “inflation.
    (Perhaps I’m getting too old to keep up.)
    In the middle of the 20th century, certainly pre WWII, the word “inflation” was almost universally interpreted as being increasing money supply.
    It seems, almost with a complete transition, nowadays the word “inflation” is accepted to mean an increase in the price of goods and services.

  8. On January 4, 2020 at 6:27 am,
    cfs says:

    Meanwhile the bankers seem determined to dig the derivative hole deep enough to bury us all.
    https://wallstreetonparade.com/2020/01/the-doomsday-machine-returns-citibank-has-sold-protection-on-858-billion-of-credit-default-swaps/

  9. On January 4, 2020 at 6:32 am,
    CFS says:

    The new religion of MMT continues to spread worldwide….

    https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3044201/chinas-central-bank-frees-us115-billion-support-growth

    Monetary inflation will eventually lead to price inflation, but the real question is when.

    • On January 4, 2020 at 7:25 am,
      Temple says:

      The very term “Modern Monetary Theory” has been bastardized as have so many others in order to change its TRUE meaning/intent and, of course, to discredit it (and ANYTHING else that would take power/attention away from the present fractional reserve banking regimen.)

      You have seemingly fallen into this trap yourself by suggesting that more stimulus (as in China, or still to come from the Fed for that matter) and more frantic money printing, etc. in ANY way truly represent “MMT.”

      It’s too bad that Bernie Sanders, A.O.C. et al are too ignorant (or afraid of the present money power) to know this and to properly push/represent TRUE social credit. Without that–and/or some other change which would abolish the Fed and its hegemony as a part of real reform–they and others are fighting a losing and inherently contradictory battle.

      You would do well to spend some time getting versed in REAL MMT, social credit and monetary reform, and cease being a well-meaning but duped critic of the only kind of change that would be positive: I suggest you start at https://www.michaeljournal.org/

      • On January 4, 2020 at 10:02 am,
        cfs says:

        I have considered Modern Monetary Theory or Modern Money Theory (MMT) is a heterodox macroeconomic theory that describes currency as a public monopoly for the government and unemployment as evidence that a currency monopolist is overly restricting the supply of the financial assets needed to pay taxes and satisfy savings desires.

        I consider excessive money printing (i.e. much faster than economic growth) as evil.
        And a private Central Banking system only as necessary for stability in a world in which most politicians seem to know little about economics.

        • On January 4, 2020 at 10:04 am,
          cfs says:

          And politicians care more about re-election than what is good for the country.

      • On January 4, 2020 at 12:04 pm,
        cfs says:

        Thank you Mr. Temple. I have spent an hour or so reading in https://www.michaeljournal.org/
        I find the site somewhat naive in failing to treat Human Beings as individuals with desires and failings. I would ask how social credit, if exchangeable between people, would be different from “money”, and if not exchangeable, how it would be accepted by people as little other than rule by authoritarian oligarchy…..with all the added waste of bureaucracy.
        I, for one, would always fight for individual choice and freedom over such bureaucracy;
        rather than an unrealizeable pie in the sky dream.

        • On January 4, 2020 at 12:44 pm,
          Matthew says:

          *Pie in the sky nightmare.

          It blows me away that so many are so willing to put a stop to free markets in the name of stopping corruption. Free markets are not the problem, human nature is. So activists should be focusing on the integrity of the laws and their enforcement rather than promoting unnatural collectivist immoral non-solutions.

          • On January 4, 2020 at 3:43 pm,
            cfs says:

            Did you read https://www.michaeljournal.org/ ?
            It was that which I considered pie in the sky with its social credits.
            i.e. the antithesis of free markets under a monetary system.

          • On January 4, 2020 at 4:58 pm,
            Matthew says:

            “The antithesis of free markets…”
            Hence, nightmare.

      • On January 4, 2020 at 12:29 pm,
        BDC says:

        Chris: We lost the war with evil a century ago. The enemy, then controlling the world’s private wealth, was given the future largess of a then burgeoning America, whose infinite line of public credit, based upon the productivity of a duped populous, was schemed into funding decades of warfare. Indeed, a warfare without end which clearly reflects its progenitor Trotsky’s penchant for perpetual revolution.

  10. On January 4, 2020 at 6:57 am,
    cfs says:
    • On January 4, 2020 at 11:01 am,
      Charles says:

      Thanks for the show KER team!

  11. On January 4, 2020 at 10:50 am,
    Fritz Bender says:

    I like following Ira Epstein metals report. Love the fact Mcewen only makes money if stock moves up, but do not own any yet. Would love Doc and Erfle’s thoughts on GoGold resources. I added another block to my holdings. Thanks love this stuff.

  12. On January 4, 2020 at 11:36 am,
    Wolfster says:

    Quite interesting that I just got told to have a look at McEwen Mining yesterday by the same individual that told me about abitibi/golden valley a few years back….doesn’t speak often but when he does he’s always right…..so far !!!!

    • On January 4, 2020 at 12:15 pm,
      cfs says:

      MUX was one of my bigger long-time holdings, although significantly beaten by Kirkland Lake recently.
      McEwen was focused originally more on silver, but was changing more to advocate a mixture of gold to be included in MUX mining activities, before recent monetary constraints. I do believe McEwen has the sense to not produce when prices are low, but to expand when prices go higher. He has been in the game a long time, with proven track record.

    • On January 4, 2020 at 12:27 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Wolfster – Speaking of GZZ Golden Valley – it has been on the move last week.

      I had carried our conversation over to ceo.ca, and had a handful of investors contact me privately and discuss all their irons in the fire and most agreed after looking it over how undervalued it still is, even just on the RZZ Abitibi Royalties arbitrage valuation. Looking forward to more investors making this connection in 2020 as it gets rerated higher.

      • On January 4, 2020 at 12:32 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        (GZZ) (GLVMF) Golden Valley Mines Corporate and Exploration Update:

        Val-d’Or, Québec – December 20, 2019

        – (RZZ) Abitibi Royalties dividend payments & Canadian Malartic exploration update
        – (IZZ) International Prospect Ventures update from Pilbara, Western Australia
        – (VZZ) Val-d’Or Mining Corporation – Golden Valley’s ownership increases to 37.2%
        – (SOI) Sirios Resources report first inferred resource estimate at Cheechoo Prospect (1.6M oz inferred)
        – Option Agreement with (OIII) Mining Inc. (formerly Alexandria Minerals Corporation) on the Centremaque Gold Prospect (Val-d’Or, Québec)
        – 15% Free-Carried Interest and 3% Net Smelter Royalty on the Lac Barry Gold Prospect (southwest of the Gladiator Deposit – (BTR) Bonterra Resources Inc. & south of the Windfall Lake Gold Project (held by OSK – Osisko Mining Inc.))

        https://www.goldenvalleymines.com/news/2019/december20/

        • On January 4, 2020 at 5:45 pm,
          Wolfster says:

          Keep up the chatter. It’s working. Lol…..btw I was told to give it another year or 2 and then abitibi will be fully valued in the $30’s

          • On January 4, 2020 at 8:19 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Haha! I’m going to keep throwing some at it every so often just to keep averaging up in the position over time. 2 years is about my target as well. Ever Upward!

  13. On January 4, 2020 at 1:10 pm,
    Bill says:

    Gold needs a weekly close above 1520 (done)
    If that were to happen, 1530-1550 should present Major Resistance
    1530-1550 acted as Major Resistance back in April & June of 2011
    It also acted as Major Support all through 2012 & early 2013

    • On January 4, 2020 at 2:05 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Gold reached a high of $1566.20 this last summer, so it would be very constructive to see a daily and then weekly close about that level, to confirm the next impulse leg higher.

      Gold closed at $1552.40 last week, so iy was still a very encouraging move higher.

      http://schrts.co/SZHeAjhT

      • On January 4, 2020 at 2:07 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        The $1552.40 weekly close last week, was actually the highest one in the last 6 years.

        • On January 4, 2020 at 2:47 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          Gold Weekly Price Forecast – Gold Markets Explode To The Upside In Risk Off Move

          Christopher Lewis – Jan 03, 2020

          “Gold markets rallied rather significantly during the week, breaking above the $1550 level, showing signs of continuing much higher. Ultimately, this is a market that will continue to see a lot of money flowing into it as we worry about the United States and Iran saber rattling.”

          https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/article/gold-weekly-price-forecast-gold-markets-explode-to-the-upside-in-risk-off-move-623908

          • On January 4, 2020 at 8:25 pm,
            Bill says:

            For sure Iran = lower USD and bizarre perfect seasonal timing?

          • On January 4, 2020 at 11:45 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Yes, it’s an interesting confluence of geopolitical events affecting the dollar, which had already topped and started heading lower recently. In addition, the end of December into Q1 has been a seasonally strong time of year for the PMs for the last 5 years, and this is all in alignment with a solid technical set up coming out of October/November 2018.

          • On January 5, 2020 at 2:40 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Gold Poised To Test Resistance From 2011-2013 As US/Iran Rhetoric Escalates

            by @Goldfinger on 5 Jan 2020

            “There is layer of resistance stretching from the September 2019 peak at $1565 to the April 2013 high at $1604.30. If gold gaps higher into the teeth of this resistance it should make for an interesting week of trading which is likely to be characterized by higher volatility and higher trading volumes. Gold sentiment is running hot after a more than $100 rally over the span of five weeks.”

            “Technically speaking, gold is getting a bit overheated on shorter time frames (daily, hourly, etc.). However, on the weekly and monthly charts the gold party could be just getting started after a 6+ year bottoming process that only transitioned into a nascent uptrend six months ago.”

            https://ceo.ca/@goldfinger/gold-poised-to-test-resistance-from-2011-2013-as-usiran-rhetoric-escalates

  14. On January 4, 2020 at 1:11 pm,
    Bill says:

    The scenario of the coming financial crisis, combined with sovereign bond
    defaults, will ultimately propel gold much higher
    The more the economy is being financed with debt, the lower & lower growth
    rates become, setting us up for a major financial crisis
    As central bankers ramp up the ‘great race to the bottom currency game’ gold &
    other hard assets will become a good place to store capital
    If the stock market pulls back here, gold should rise
    A Repo crisis could give gold a boost

  15. On January 4, 2020 at 1:53 pm,
    cfs says:
  16. On January 4, 2020 at 2:00 pm,
    cfs says:
  17. On January 4, 2020 at 2:14 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    I agree with David’s philosophy of holding a mix of some high growth producers, advanced developers, and peppering in a few higher risk exploration drill plays.

    As for his comments on (AXU) (AXR) Alexco, he is spot on. Some investors got disappointed in late 2018 and early 2019 about delays getting into production, but they have continued to nail excellent results in exploration and their results at Bermingham the last 2 years have been so high grade that it’s completely altered their mine plan coming back into production. Now they are going to be blending ore from both Flame & Moth and Bermingham in the first few years of production, and by waiting out 2018 and 2019, it will be into a much higher and rising Silver price.

    As a result, despite some detractors, Alexco has continued to move higher and higher in valuation as they continue to grow their ounces in the ground.

    __________________________________________

    This is the November Corporate Presentation from Alexco Resources (which is already out-of-date because they’ve made a few new discoveries in December)

    https://www.alexcoresource.com/site/assets/files/4325/2019-11-02-cp-axu.pdf

    • On January 4, 2020 at 2:17 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      They’ve also found an extension of their high-grade Silver deposit, Bermingham, this last September that they’ve called “Bermingham Deep” and it will get more exploration work done this next year.

      ______________________________________________

      (AXU) (AXR) Alexco Intersects 8.1 Meters (true width) at Composite Grade of 1,414 Grams Per Tonne (45.5 oz/t) Silver at “Bermingham Deep” Target

      https://www.alexcoresource.com/site/assets/files/4309/alexco_-_2019_drill_results_-_september_10_2019_-_final.pdf

      • On January 4, 2020 at 2:20 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        In addition to that new discovery at Bermingham Deep, AXU has made another new blind discovery called “Inca” in December. These guys are really on a roll as far as finding more and more higher grade Silver ounces in the ground at Keno Hill.

        ___________________________________________

        Alexco Discovers New Zone of Silver Mineralization, 3.7 Kilometers Northeast
        of Bermingham Deposit, Composite Assays to 832 Grams Per Tonne Silver
        over 7.4 Meters True Width

        December 4, 2019

        Alexco’s Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Clynt Nauman, commented, “The Inca discovery reflects the increasing confidence our geology team has in
        predicting the geological setting in which these deposits occur at Keno Hill. It is another blind discovery that is open along strike and down dip, but perhaps more importantly it is within a favourable structure which has at least 800 meters of untested strike length in rocks which are known to host most of the silver deposits in the district. Clearly, more work is required in 2020 to better understand the
        importance of the Inca discovery.”

        https://www.alexcoresource.com/site/assets/files/4330/2019-12-04-axu-nr.pdf

        • On January 4, 2020 at 3:03 pm,
          RICHARD/DOC says:

          I really like AXU both fundamentally and technically. I’ve held it for a long time and it’s one of my largest positions. The leverage to the silver price is outstanding and we’ve just begun the bull run.

          • On January 4, 2020 at 3:16 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Agreed Doc/Charlie. May your 2020 investing be prosperous!

          • On January 4, 2020 at 4:48 pm,
            RICHARD/DOC says:

            Ex, interesting comment—your memory must be pretty good. How did you know the Charlie part?

          • On January 4, 2020 at 8:13 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Cory did an interview with you a few years back and mentioned that while we call you “Doc” that many of your friends and colleagues called you Charlie. Just thought I’d post it as a throwback. 🙂

    • On January 4, 2020 at 5:49 pm,
      Wolfster says:

      Every time I think its finally going to gain some traction over $3 it sells off again….might accumulate more with the pure gold profits as it’s finally getting a proper valuation

      • On January 4, 2020 at 8:18 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        I normally track the US listing of AXU for Alexco, but yes on the Toronto listing it should get moving far above C$3.00 in 2020 (it’s poked it’s head above it on 2 prior rallies) and as it expands its resource base and heads towards production by year end.

        I’ll likely add a bit more on any pullbacks just to beef up the position a bit more to get fully allocated for the long game over the next 2-3 years. Good luck to you in your trading sir.

        • On January 5, 2020 at 8:22 am,
          RICHARD/DOC says:

          Exactly, my plan. In fact, i believe over the next 2-3 weeks we’ll see a pullback in AXU and I’ve planned on adding a little more. My cost basis is so low and I have a considerable number of shares so it won’t make much of an increase in that basis.

          • On January 5, 2020 at 11:24 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Makes sense and sounds like a solid plan. I don’t have a lot of dry powder left, but do have a little cash set aside for whenever we see a pullback of 15-20% in some of the miners to add to a few positions like AXU, where I already have a low-cost basis. I don’t have a problem averaging up in quality companies in a more bullish trend.

    • On January 4, 2020 at 8:09 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Updated Gold #Developers watchlist:

      https://ceo.ca/watchlist?d91eea43cbf0

  18. On January 4, 2020 at 2:18 pm,
    Matthew says:
  19. On January 4, 2020 at 2:22 pm,
    Matthew says:

    Formidable and steeply rising resistance beats HUI:SPY again:
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24HUI%3ASPY&p=W&yr=4&mn=5&dy=0&id=p54458586686&a=705939716

  20. On January 4, 2020 at 2:37 pm,
    Matthew says:

    Gold is short term overbought and has risen for 8 straight days so the coming week should be interesting. Although the odds are against it, it seems like it might rise for one more day before delivering a decline of some kind.
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p63136911482&a=710188497

    • On January 4, 2020 at 7:03 pm,
      Bill says:

      Drop to middle fork would be nice…No panic to add at present..

  21. On January 5, 2020 at 12:50 am,
    cfs says:
  22. On January 5, 2020 at 3:02 pm,
    Blue says:
    • On January 5, 2020 at 5:59 pm,
      Matthew says:

      Thanks, I might have missed that.

      • On January 5, 2020 at 7:02 pm,
        Blue says:

        👍😄

        • On January 5, 2020 at 7:59 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          Nice Kootenay buy side research. Thanks for posting it Blue.

          It’s nice to see KTN finally getting a little more attention since this last summer.

          Ever Upward!

          • On January 6, 2020 at 12:48 am,
            Blue says:

            Thanks Ex👊😉

  23. On January 5, 2020 at 3:09 pm,
    Dick Tracy says:

    Gold just opened up $30 higher! DT

    • On January 5, 2020 at 3:11 pm,
      Dick Tracy says:
    • On January 5, 2020 at 3:29 pm,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      Looking gooooood………

    • On January 5, 2020 at 4:24 pm,
      Ozibatla says:

      Yeh nice pop in the metals first up this morning!

      • On January 5, 2020 at 4:42 pm,
        Ozibatla says:

        Possible false pop on mideast tensions. If this tension subsides in conjunction with a nice resistance area currently at play, then we should see a correction of sorts. Not to mention the overbought indicators in the short to mid-term.

        • On January 5, 2020 at 7:11 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          That is a concern in the back of my mind as well Ozibatla, but if Gold can post a close tomorrow above the $1566.20 surge high from August, then it is still constructive for the charts.

          Right now Gold is at $1580 in overseas trading, and Silver is at $18.50, so as long as this doesn’t get slapped down in the pre-markets, it should be a constructive daily price to kick off the week, even if ends up selling down as tensions simmer down.

          • On January 5, 2020 at 9:22 pm,
            Ozibatla says:

            Spot on Ex! Im looking to see if we can get a daily then weekly close above that $1566 figure. If so that will strengthen golds technical picture in the near term.

    • On January 5, 2020 at 11:02 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Gab @TraderGab (on twitter with a great Gold chart using Elliot Wave & key trend lines).

      “New 6 year high for #gold. Short-term Geo-Politics are pushing gold upward.”

      “In 2020, still expecting the Fed to monetize the debt, more rate cuts and possibly Negative Rates (Bernanke “The Hero” is hinting at this non sense). Expecting a pullback now.”

      https://twitter.com/TraderGab/status/1213986262320857088

      • On January 5, 2020 at 11:05 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        Gab @TraderGab (on Twitter – GDX chart)

        “#GDX Still some skepticism from the Major Miners. Last week was disappointing for most of them. Let’s see if the action in #gold will help them break 31$ in the next few days.”

        https://twitter.com/TraderGab/status/1214002362349699072

  24. On January 5, 2020 at 3:11 pm,
    Blue says:

    I wonder if Vermeulen is right about the price of silver lagging Gold 2020?
    Until March/April before it leaves 17.50-18.50 cad? That gold will go up first and silver lagg gold big time?

    https://www.thetechnicaltraders.com/adl-gold-prediction-confirms-targets/

    • On January 5, 2020 at 3:32 pm,
      Blue says:

      Me thinks: No

    • On January 5, 2020 at 5:26 pm,
      Matthew says:

      He’s right about silver lagging by about 8 months so we might have to wait for silver to have its own version of the move that gold appears to be starting now but that doesn’t mean that silver won’t go up along with gold. In other words, and in my opinion, silver will likely still outperform gold but might fail to deliver the leverage to gold that we often expect from it.
      In the 2016 move, silver provided leverage to gold of roughly 1.6x but in the move from June to September of 2019, its leverage was about 1.35x. So it beat gold easily both times but came nowhere near the 6.8x it delivered in the 2010-11 run from mid August to late April. So when compared to 2010-11, you could say that silver lagged in 2016 and in 2019 even though it still beat gold in the absolute sense (percentage terms) all three times.

      So in absolute terms, I’m with you, silver will beat gold in 2020.

      • On January 5, 2020 at 5:28 pm,
        Matthew says:

        The leverage in the examples above was based on weekly closes.

      • On January 5, 2020 at 7:19 pm,
        Blue says:

        You are right about silver usually is lagging gold.
        For me its all about the silver miners, they might be following the gold price upwards
        and outperforme the silver price as a percentage more than usual.
        We all have to be patient and wait for the good stuff in our life of course.
        Let the market do the heavy lifting and just relax and enjoy the ride, silver is just waking
        Up from its hibernation👊🤗

        • On January 5, 2020 at 7:35 pm,
          Matthew says:

          The silver miners are going to do extremely well and have been leading the pack higher since mid October.

          On January 1, 2020 at 4:13 pm,
          Matthew says:
          The silver miners are set to crush the gold miners in the months ahead. This is one very bullish picture:
          https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SILJ&p=W&yr=3&mn=11&dy=0&id=p17956805638&a=706220219

          SIL and SILJ are well above their September highs while GDX still needs to rise 5% just to match its September high. And look at SILJ’s volume lately!

        • On January 5, 2020 at 7:36 pm,
          Matthew says:

          🚀🍻😎

          • On January 5, 2020 at 7:52 pm,
            Blue says:

            Cheers 🍻and pass the popcorn😄

        • On January 5, 2020 at 8:03 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          +1 Agreed Blue. Silver miners are waking up from hibernation since this last summer, and they are going to be hungry for more ounces in the ground.

          Looking forward to the oncoming swell in silver miners share prices in 2020 and 2021, as more generalist investors find their way to this tiny sector. Fun times!

          • On January 5, 2020 at 8:29 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Hi-yo Silver, Away!

            Rick Mills for Streetwise Reports (1/2/20)

            “Without hesitation we can say that 2019 has been an excellent year for gold and silver. Both metals traded flat during the first half, then bolted significantly higher after the U.S. Federal Reserve reversed course and began cutting interest rates instead of raising them. Starting in July, the Fed lowered rates three times before freezing the (benchmark) federal funds rate at a range of 1.5–1.75% in November.”

            “That, along with similarly dovish policies among other central banks, a record $17 trillion of negative-yielding sovereign bonds, fresh safe-haven demand due to tensions with Iran, and a lack of progress on trade talks, to name key issues, powered precious metals to new heights.”

            “While gold has outperformed silver over the past 12 months, rising around 15% to silver’s 11%, some market observers are picking silver to be the precious metal to beat in 2020.”

            https://www.streetwisereports.com/article/2020/01/02/hi-yo-silver-away.html

          • On January 5, 2020 at 11:11 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Northstar @Northst18363337 on Twitter with a solid chart for (USAS) Americas Gold & Silver.

            “This isn’t a recommendation – you need to do your own research. This is, however, an example of the many, many Gold and Silver miners with very bullish looking charts #Gold #Silver”

            https://twitter.com/Northst18363337/status/1213841932255977472

          • On January 5, 2020 at 11:13 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Northstar reflects on the chart of (USAS) Amercias Gold & Silver:

            “A move from $3 to $12 is a distinct possibility”

          • On January 6, 2020 at 4:06 am,
            Wolfster says:

            I’d take half that move and be happy. 😉

          • On January 6, 2020 at 4:32 am,
            Blue says:

            I like ” hungry for more ounces in the ground”.
            Im waiting for KTN to release the last seven holes from 2019.
            And then 2020 they will hunger for ounces in the ground in an aggressive way!!😝

  25. On January 5, 2020 at 5:32 pm,
    Bill says:

    Any thoughts on MUX..I use to own it yrs ago….charts terrible….havent kept up on the news.
    Im going to nibble.
    Matt or anyone.

    • On January 5, 2020 at 6:01 pm,
      Matthew says:

      I don’t have anything special to say about it but I bet it has bottomed.

    • On January 5, 2020 at 6:46 pm,
      RICHARD/DOC says:

      I have nibbled and will continue to over time.

    • On January 5, 2020 at 7:07 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      I just re-positioned in MUX right before Christmas, and wrote a blurb further up at the top of the blog with some critiques and areas that look constructive for it.

  26. On January 5, 2020 at 6:05 pm,
    Matthew says:

    I said a couple of days ago that a leap above 18.40 is just what we need from silver, and here we are.
    This is a big deal if it sticks:
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SILVER&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p84152142956&a=684782815

  27. On January 5, 2020 at 6:11 pm,
    Bill says:

    Thx.. yes i think it has too….Robs sharp and maybe it can get some movment now as all boats without major issues, will be lifted when the crowd moves in.
    Yes we need to hold at least for now and January is young…

  28. On January 5, 2020 at 6:13 pm,
    Bill says:

    Mybe the Repo market black swans finally landing?

  29. On January 5, 2020 at 7:04 pm,
    cfs says:

    Looks like Pd might joust with $2000 this week.

    • On January 5, 2020 at 9:25 pm,
      Ozibatla says:

      Has done so already! It is now more than double the price of Pt. Who wouldve thought possible just a few years back?

      • On January 5, 2020 at 10:41 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        Platinum’s price will catch up to Palladium more this year, but yeah, it’s a wild run that Palladium has been on.

  30. On January 5, 2020 at 8:39 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    Gold Hits Highest Since 2013 as Goldman Backs Bullion in Crisis

    By Ranjeetha Pakiam and David Stringer – January 5, 2020

    “Gold surged to the highest level in more than six years as fast-rising tensions in the Middle East stoked demand for haven assets, with Goldman Sachs Group Inc. saying that bullion offered a more effective hedge than oil to the crisis. Palladium extended gains to an all-time high.”

    Bullion is building on the largest annual climb since 2010, which was driven by a weaker dollar, lower real rates and the trade war’s drag on global growth. The widening fallout from the drone strike on Soleimani is threatening to escalate, denting risk sentiment and sending investors to havens. While Goldman analysts cautioned there was a large range of potential scenarios at this stage, the bank said bullion may prove a better bet than oil.

    “History shows that under most outcomes gold will likely rally to well beyond current levels,” analysts including Jeffrey Currie and Damien Courvalin said in a note dated Jan. 6. That’s “consistent with our previous research, which shows that being long gold is a better hedge to such geopolitical risks.”

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-01-05/gold-climbs-to-highest-level-since-2013-on-geopolitical-tensions

    • On January 5, 2020 at 11:07 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Michael Ballanger @MiningJunkie on Twitter with a telling cartoon:

      “A short squeeze is a rapid increase in the price of a commodity that occurs when there is a lack of supply and an excess of demand for that commodity.”

      https://twitter.com/MiningJunkie/status/1214032690682482689