Chris Temple from The National Investor – Fri 14 Feb, 2020

Comparing the markets currently to 1999

Chris Temple joins me on this Friday with a look back in history to compare the current state of the US markets to past times. He outlines how 1999 was very similar and what a profitable portfolio strategy was.

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Comments:
  1. On February 14, 2020 at 10:09 am,
    cfs says:

    Can you imagine the record deficits that would occur if Bernie were elected ?
    An extra $ 4Trillion is the low estimate !

    Meanwhile there almost has to be a crash towards the end of the year.
    The supply chain is going to be disrupted:
    https://www.cfr.org/blog/us-dependence-pharmaceutical-products-china

    The common cold is a corona virus.
    The influenza virus is a corona virus.
    There is NO TRUE Vaccine that will be found for Covid-19.
    It mutates too quickly.
    The person that created this bioweapon and the morons in government that approved the creation should be put in a swimming pool of Piranha for what they have released on humanity.
    WHO is now projecting up to 50% of the world population will be exposed in the next few years.
    The cat is out of the bag and will NEVER be contained again.

    • On February 14, 2020 at 12:24 pm,
      bonzo b. says:

      Michael Savage always said liberalism is a mental disorder.

  2. On February 14, 2020 at 11:17 am,
    mineralsrmoney says:

    I couldn’t agree more with Chris with regards to both Greenspan and 1999. My work shows that at present, the SPX looks to be in a similar position today as November /99 from a purely technical standpoint. If so, this tape has roughly 10 more months of upside before succumbing and entering a 2yr downdraft that may be significant from a percentage measure.

  3. On February 14, 2020 at 11:46 am,
    CFS says:
  4. On February 14, 2020 at 12:13 pm,
    BDC says:

    It was Glass-Steagall !!

    • On February 14, 2020 at 12:30 pm,
      Temple says:

      Repealing Glass-Steagall had long been an objective of Greenspan’s – and he got it done. All the better to turn the banking system into a greater casino.

    • On February 14, 2020 at 1:45 pm,
      Matthew says:

      Glass-Steagall would have done nothing to prevent the problems that led to 2008.

      • On February 15, 2020 at 7:33 am,
        BDC says:

        The 1999 elimination of Glass-Steagall greatly magnified its effects.

        • On February 15, 2020 at 7:55 am,
          Matthew says:

          That is highly debatable. For example, AIG would have been unaffected by Glass-Steagall.
          The elephant in the room is the government. IT is the sole reason for the crisis. The free market was not at all to blame and the free market also would not have provided bailouts to the bad guys in the aftermath. The government created massive moral hazard, as it always does. Free markets force accountability.

          • On February 16, 2020 at 10:57 am,
            BDC says:

            Note also that the massive infusion of debt capital – essentially OPM – exacerbated the earlier speculative internet bubble not long after Glass-Steagall was gone. Debt markets dwarf the others, and the surety of these previously protected securities (whatever there can be) was greatly diminished.

          • On February 16, 2020 at 1:14 pm,
            Matthew says:

            I’d bet that the timing of the repeal was to allow certain banks to bet against the stock market rather than to buy it.

            Glass-Steagall was enacted well after the crash of ’29 and was repealed just before the all-time high (that remains the real all time high) so it never accomplished anything other than creating a moral hazard. It was just another bit of nanny-state sorcery to appease the masses. Nothing is more dangerous to your financial health than to trust that the government is there to protect you.

            https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24COMPQ&p=W&st=1993-01-01&en=2000-11-11&id=p42875623857&a=721566641

          • On February 17, 2020 at 11:40 am,
            BDC says:

            Money cannot be stolen (via loose credit: schemed away through pump & dump, shorting, etc.) if it is not available. The elimination of Glass-Steagall enabled shysters to effectively steal OPM previously out of their reach.

          • On February 17, 2020 at 1:32 pm,
            Matthew says:

            Oh yes it can. G-S never affected the Fed’s ability to inflate, only commercial banks’ ability to speculate.
            If what you’re saying were true, gold would still be $35 like it was when G-S was enacted in 1933.
            Inflation is theft. The gov’s deficit spending is extreme inflation.

  5. On February 14, 2020 at 12:15 pm,
    CFS says:

    gLASS-STEAGALL won’t help.
    Did you listen to Hemke above ?

  6. On February 14, 2020 at 12:37 pm,
    BDC says:

    Completely opening the American credit spigott to the Crime Syndicate Cult in 1999, through the elimination of Glass-Staegall, ensured that the ‘casino’, as Marty Fleckenstein put it, would enable creation of a near unending Ponzi economy!!!

  7. On February 14, 2020 at 1:11 pm,
    4 oz says:

    This is well worth a few minutes of someone you know……
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=6&v=W5wfIaR48zg&feature=emb_logo

    • On February 14, 2020 at 2:16 pm,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      Ditto……..great report……worth the time…..appreciate……..thanks…….

  8. On February 14, 2020 at 2:00 pm,
    cfs says:

    Everything is relative.
    What on earth is the currency that might replace the dollar.

    The Renmimbi ? You got to be joking. Do anyone believe China tells the truth. ?
    The Euro ? The EU will break up before the euro becomes a reserve currency.
    A cryptocurrency ? Any domination there and it will be attacked/made illegal.

    For the dollar to fall, it has to be replaced by something better.

    • On February 14, 2020 at 2:19 pm,
      BDC says:

      The new currency? A ‘born-again’ Dollar!
      Why would the Cult give up their control?

    • On February 14, 2020 at 2:19 pm,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      Listen to the tape above…….submitted by 4 oz……for a clue…….

    • On February 14, 2020 at 2:59 pm,
      Temple says:

      As the late John McLaughlin would have said, cfs, “You’ve lurched into the truth…correct!” For as far ahead as one can look, there is no meaningful threat to the US $ (unless somehow in an especially crackpot way The Orange Wonder pulls off an assisted suicide of it.) The ECB will end up turning the euro into toilet paper/confetti before it’s done…and I hope you are correct that the euro experiment will implode anyway.

      In relative terms, the dollar has no viable competitor.

      Make no mistake–I wish the dollar’s reign would end; and not because of how it would affect gold or markets or anything else (be careful what you wish for, folks…if the $ really did lose its global reserve status, Americans are f****d!!) I wouldn’t mind seeing it, though, in the sense that the dollar’s “death” would likewise finally end the overreach of the American empire/Deep State around the world…and save future losses of money, lives, etc.

    • On February 22, 2020 at 7:04 am,
      Rick Ackerman says:

      Not merely better, but capable of handling all of the betting action associated with a quadrillion dollar derivatives market. One other reason for the dollar’s permanent entrenchment as the currency of choice is that the whole world prefers to pay for real goods, particularly oil, with a currency that is in infinite supply.

  9. On February 14, 2020 at 2:05 pm,
    CFS says:
  10. On February 14, 2020 at 2:08 pm,
    Fritz Bender says:

    Markets continue to rise on more news that pandemic is even more widespread. Dystopic.

  11. On February 14, 2020 at 4:58 pm,
    cfs says:

    I believe all but the Chinese are underestimating Covid-19.

    The world is in for a major recession.

  12. On February 14, 2020 at 5:06 pm,
    cfs says:

    70 Airlines have cancelled all flights to/from China.

    Ships leaving China will decrease next.

    The Chinese know how bad Covid-19 is, but are lying about it.

    ACE-2 is the receptor for Covid-19. Liable to have more effect on smokers
    (this explains early thought of racial/gender/age differentiation.)

  13. On February 14, 2020 at 5:31 pm,
    cfs says:

    ACE2 receptor localization
    This is the most relevant paper I found if you want to see body location effected:
    https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/path.1570

  14. On February 14, 2020 at 6:37 pm,
    Fritz Bender says:

    Orange wonder has increased the swamp population and debt. Just another person who made promises they never keep.

    • On February 14, 2020 at 6:41 pm,
      Temple says:

      Sad but pretty much true, Fritz…like The Joker (Jack Nicholson) said, paraphrasing, “This country needs an enema!”

  15. On February 14, 2020 at 6:49 pm,
    Dick Tracy says:

    Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, and Tesla, the alarm bells are ringing. Does anyone here remember Nortel Networks the darling of The TSX, it crashed in 2001. It went from a high of $129 per share to 63 cents and it was a splendid train wreck. No one could believe that it was possible so they kept buying as the elevator was going down. Can’t happen again you say, just you wait! LOL! DT

  16. On February 14, 2020 at 6:57 pm,
    Ebolan says:

    BOYS!

    Very FASCINATION interview with Chris Cole on allocation, volatility, etc. BUT put on your THINKING CAPS because there it is a heavy duty discussion.

    https://www.macrovoices.com/785-macrovoices-206-chris-cole-optimizing-portfolio-construction-for-changing-times

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