Weekend Show – Sat 21 Mar, 2020

Hour 1 – This hour is all about the aggressive move to cash

Full First Hour

It was another historic week for markets and governments around the world. We are quickly moving into a state of self-isolation in North America and many other parts of the world. Economies are going to severely struggle and markets are already pricing this in. This was the most volatile week for markets ever!

The question I focus on this weekend is the aggressive move by investors to cash and why, on many fronts, this is happening.

Please keep in touch during this time at home. My email address is Fleck@kereport.com.

  • Segment 1 – Marc Chandler, Managing Partner at Bannockburn Global ForEx kicks off the first hour with a detailed look at the currency markets. We focus on why this move to the US Dollar has happened so quickly.
  • Segment 2 & 3 – Mike Larson joins me to discuss the concept of a rush to cash for investors when it comes to forecasting the bad economic data expected in the foreseeable future. We also discuss how much debt could grow during this shutdown of cities then transition into the precious metals sector.
  • Segment 4 – Jordan Roy-Byrne wraps up the show by taking a different look at the metals sector. We discuss the recent CoT report, silver’s crash this week, and if there is going to be a massive clearout of junior stocks when this fear is over.

Exclusive Company Updates This Week


Marc Chandler
Mike Larson
Jordan Roy-Byrne

Comments:
  1. On March 21, 2020 at 5:03 am,
    Excelsior says:

    Thanks Cory & Big Al and all the KER contributors for another great week of daily editorials and another Weekend Show. (and what a week it was!)

  2. On March 21, 2020 at 5:51 am,
    Thomas says:

    Thanks Cory, listened carefully to what Mike Larson had to say (also increased my cash position). He might be right.

    Maybe it is not unwise to sell producers at the moment?
    Had a closer look on Hochschild, because I thought it is very cheap
    But probably not
    – below $12 Silver they are making losses
    – because of the virus they have to shut down their main operation

    https://www.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-hochschild-min/hochschild-mining-halts-argentina-operations-after-mandatory-quarantine-idUSL4N2BD2YR

    We start seeing the same thing with other producers.
    Producer that have high administration costs or no cash will get into trouble

  3. On March 21, 2020 at 8:30 am,
    Nigel says:

    Thanks Cory, good show. Must admit I found myself agreeing a lot with Jordan, I can see gold and silver going down from here for a while. I believe that they will take off like crazy as CBs print print print but maybe that’s a 2021 event. If the Virus is less bad than feared then people will look to the main stock markets first, if worse than feared I don’t think buying gold is going to be a high priority.

    • On March 21, 2020 at 8:56 am,
      Thomas says:

      Agree also with Jordan. Silver producers with large debt will be in trouble if silver goes further down

      • On March 21, 2020 at 9:03 am,
        b says:

        Personally I dont see demand for silver increasing until manufacturing gets going.

        It sure as heck doesnt have monetary value.

        • On March 21, 2020 at 11:42 am,
          Excelsior says:

          Please to don’t tell that to all the investors feverishly trying to get their hands on Silver Eagles and Silver Mapleleafs, or to the dealers that are charging far higher margins as of late due to the huge investor demand, or to jewelry makers all over the planet, where it is worn as form of wealth.

          Sure, there is a large manufacturing component to Silver, but that is NOT what sets the pricing for it. Base Metals producers just sell their Silver for whatever the smelters pay, as their goal is to producer Copper, or Nickel, or Zinc, and most manufacturers will pay for the Silver they need at whatever price it is at (within reason).

          Pricing in Silver is set by investor appetite in the futures markets, so all this focus on it’s industrial applications may play a part in investor sentiment, but so does the monetary component and economic factors. The massive selling in Silver lately in the liquidity crunch wasn’t just based on manufacturing expectations, but it was a selling of riskier assets to run to the safety of the US Dollar, Bonds, the Yen, and Gold.

          • On March 21, 2020 at 11:57 am,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            Hang in the EX……….there are only a couple of people I listen to on this blog….
            and it sure is not Jordon……..Way behind the curve……

          • On March 21, 2020 at 12:05 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Thanks OOTB. I’m hanging in there, but was just making the point that Silver’s industrial use, and how it is priced in the papermarkets, and also how it is priced in the physical markets, are all much different things.

            I’ve made thorough the rollercoaster of the all the other ups and downs, and will get through this period as well, and this is highly unusual set of current circumstances, but will still just be a marker we look back on one day, like 1929, 1971, 1987, 2001, 2008, etc…

            Ever Upward!

          • On March 21, 2020 at 12:06 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            papermarkets = paper markets

            thorough = through

          • On March 21, 2020 at 12:25 pm,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            Lock down…..the world…..None like it in our life time…………but, some likenesses in other times in history….

          • On March 21, 2020 at 2:28 pm,
            b says:

            Eagles and maples run out every year, that is really not a big deal, its normal.
            Gold has a monetary element, I dont see the same thing with silver.

            I know silver spikes on occasion,(every 20 years?) but lets be honest, thats due to the madness of crowds,herd think, not any shortages or even higher demand.
            There has always been silver available to meet demand.

            Maybe that changes in the future but so far thats the way its been.

            These blogs and gurus were screaming shortage for years, I calculated and it was all bs, and said so repeatedly, now, writers say there is no shortage.
            Its about time and that bs seems to be done with.

            It is simply my opinion that silver goes up in price as manufacturing increases.

            As the economy all around the world has slowed it makes perfect sense the demand for silver etc has decreased and prices drop.

            If “stackers” had enough influence on price it wouldnt drop so low, but it doesnt look like they do to me, that leaves industrial that drives price.

            Compare it with gold, it hasnt dropped anywhere near as much, gold beyond doubt has a monetary element to it.

          • On March 21, 2020 at 3:11 pm,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            b…….you can not buy any silver at anywhere close to spot…….
            Shortage of eagles, I agree the mint…runs out., do you think they might know something, concerning silver….?… Like why , give it away…at less than mining cost.
            Look, if, they do not show you FT.KNOX gold, …Reason the mint runs out, they do not have any, nor want you the citizen to have any at cheap prices…. remember, JPM….is the safe keeper…and they are not giving up the silver hoard…

          • On March 21, 2020 at 3:30 pm,
            b says:

            Looks like ur right Jerry, I checked dealers want 18 us or 25 cdn.

            Pretty high premiums, maybe something is going to happen.

            I still dont believe the mints running out has much to do with it, they run out every year.
            Nor do I believe there is any shortage.

            Bob agrees with me so thats gotta prove it. 😉

          • On March 21, 2020 at 4:16 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Hi b – My only point was that the industrial component of Silver is not what sets the pricing, the investing market does. Producers sell for what smelters tell them to, and manufactures just buy it for what it costs.

            The vast majority of the investment volume is in the paper markets (futures contracts, options, ETFs, etc…), for better or for worse. However, investor sentiment is what drives those, in addition to technical factors, and the bizarre conditions in the lack of Silver coins available and high premiums in the physical markets is likely what affected the paper markets trading on Friday. That was my main point, and not that coin buyers were going to turn the ship around, but the physical markets do have an effect on the perceptions of the paper market trading, and that is worth noting.

          • On March 22, 2020 at 11:45 am,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            b…….learn to listen to me…..a little….if, I become wrong., I will try to correct ASAP..
            thanks for reading, always appreciate the comments….Going to be real volatile going forward……I think….

          • On March 22, 2020 at 12:27 pm,
            Big Al says:

            Probably true Box!

          • On March 22, 2020 at 11:48 am,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            b………if you are passing by…………..
            I posted………THE CANADIAN MINT IS OUT……..

          • On March 22, 2020 at 12:48 pm,
            b says:

            I know the mint is out Jerry.
            I dont see that as a big deal, they run out every year.
            The bugs like to see it as “price suppression”? “shortages” ? personally Ive always seen that as bs.
            I have never found silver to be short, demand has always been met.
            True, more stackers want coins now than the mint produces and premiums have risen, but that doesnt mean there is any kind of shortage.

            The mints will produce again.

            I think silver is not money and not a “safe haven” there are others that agree with me, Bob,Mickey Fulp for example, but everyone has opinions.

            Just the way I see silver, not money,not a safe haven, no shortage.

          • On March 22, 2020 at 4:15 pm,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            The Canadian Mint….is out every year…..”?
            Never noticed……thanks…

          • On March 22, 2020 at 4:19 pm,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            b….Always notice that the Canadian Mint , always seemed to have a great selection of collector coins, and unusual , nice variety of coins…..

          • On March 22, 2020 at 4:47 pm,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            b……..why are you buying silver at ebay? 5cent silver coins ….did not you say , you bought some at ebay….

  4. On March 21, 2020 at 8:57 am,
    Mike in Albuquerque says:

    Zombie Companies?

    Does anybody dare to produce a list of Zombie Companies? I own at least one and probably more that have flat lined and appear to be doing nothing but paying Mgmt. salaries.

    It would be a good thing to list them but I wonder if Cory and Al would want them here as that piss a bunch of folks off –

    Any thoughts?

    Mike

    • On March 21, 2020 at 9:59 am,
      Canucksi says:

      I’ll add to this Mike… I’d luv to see a ‘target list’ of mining companies, for loyal Ker followers, to consider that our key Subject Matter Experts are eyeing for when the sector gives us the green light to start biting.
      Doc is indicating end of April, but which ones of the multiple companies are considered top shelf.

      • On March 21, 2020 at 11:32 am,
        Excelsior says:

        Canucksi – good questions, and really the answers would be different for each investor based on their unique buying criteria, risk appetite filters, time horizon, and which sectors and subsectors they want to hold.s

        For example, some “buy and hold investors” are very conservative, and don’t care as much about the larger percentage gains, due to the associated risk, and really just don’t want to lose money or purchasing power and want mild appreciation over time. For those investors accumulating the metals directly or through associated ETFs that track the metals is a good fit. Other times the Royalties and Streamers would make the most sense for them, for a slow and steady increase over time. However, those same attributes may be exact antithesis of what a speculative investor would want to plop their fiat in, preferring more leverage through news-flow, promotion, or optionality.

        There are investors that only want own the largest types of mines or seek out Tier 1 deposits, but those companies get much more widely followed, are more properly valued, and have less unanswered questions. They can also fail due to crushing debt, jurisdiction risks, labor disputes, nationalization, public opposition, etc… (sometimes even more so though than the smaller miners the fly much more under the radar). Other investors like the optionality of deposits “out of the money” at current prices, but that will rise many multiples faster than more currently economic deposits on rising metals prices.

        This higher risk but higher leverage scenario is also found in the smaller producers or Tier 2 & 3 developers that are just under profitability, but that have the largest percentage economic margin increases in rising metals prices (the best of the worst), and go from distressed to impressed as this shift happens. Some would never touch a turnaround project, but those are where some of the best gains are found. These projects also become the prime targets for takeovers, as most takeovers are not for Tier 1 projects, but having said that, most Tier 1 projects do get taken over…. eventually.

        Other investors only will invest in Gold companies but not Silver companies, because Gold is almost completely a Precious Metal and money. Others like Silver, as it has also always been a Precious Metal and money, and despite the recent over-weighted “industrial metals” narrative, Silver tracks Gold much more than it does other Commodities over the long haul. However, it is fair to point out that Silver does have the industrial component, it is just that this is currently being over-emphasized by most pundits and Gold gurus as of late due to their recency bias, and often by investors that aren’t really that solid as Silver or Silver mining investors in the first place.

        Silver still has the leverage to Gold though in the medium to longer term, as do the mining stocks, but it is the more speculative retail and hedge fund side of the equation. Silver and mining stock investors are usually easy in, and easy out, often with shorter-duration trades and less likely to mostly be buy and hold investors. Typically Silver & the mining stocks still outperform to the upside (like in 2009-2011, in the 8 month surge of 2016, or the Q1 runs in 2017, 2018, 2019), but 2020 has been an odd year admittedly. That doesn’t mean for a second that Silver is no longer a precious metal though, and people that have been spouting that nonsense are going to miss the biggest gains in the sector, and that is OK. To each their own…

        Other investors will only position in a group of Producers, because of liquidity, or position size and capital to deploy, or for rules about market caps, or a desire to analyze their business operation and production metrics. Other investors like picking up Developers during their “Golden Runway” into becoming a producer as that is a reliable ramp up in the company valuations, but often this is boring with economic studies, permits, financing packages, and then the build out. The most speculative retail and small funds/family funds side of the PM sector only curate a basket of Explorers, precisely because they don’t want to analyze the production metrics, costs, revenues, metal recovery rates, smelter fees, etc…. or don’t want the larger wait times for producing the Resource Estimate, PEA, PFS, FS, etc…

        There are all kinds of Jurisdiction risks investors have to consider for themselves of where they want to invest and where the may not want to invest. For many they have rose-colored glasses or biases as to where the opportunity/safety/risk is from past experiences (good or bad) or their own personal views of the world. For example, some will only invest in North American companies in Canada, US, and Mexico thinking they are safer, but how’s that working out for the Oil investors right now where North American producers are some of the highest cost, compared to most of the lower cost South American, African, Asian producer? In mining sometimes the North American companies are more properly valued (limiting some of the upside) compared to the inefficient markets in more exotic locations, or often the Canadian and US miners going into development have really long permitting timelines compared to other jurisdictions and can get stuck for years in that process, compared to other countries. Then again, there are geo-political risks in Central American, some South American, African, or some Asian countries. Many times the more exotic locations are less explored by modern methods but have rich histories of artisinal mining so the targets can still offer surprises to the upside in grade or size, or in how cheap the land is, or in cost inputs, or in currency exchange rates.

        There are advantages and disadvantages to each of the strategies mentioned, or in one’s focus or being concentrated versus diversified, in a sector or sectors, or all in one sub-sector or various sub-sectors. ALL of that needs to be factored into the value proposition that an investor makes, and it really is a personal quest.

        • On March 21, 2020 at 11:46 am,
          Excelsior says:

          Basically there is no “one-size-fits-all” list of stocks that all investors would be able to agree with would be the best, or top shelf, or that would represent the best value, or best leverage, or best price point in their technical setup.

          Different strokes for different folks.

          • On March 21, 2020 at 2:30 pm,
            Mike in Albuquerque says:

            Excelsior – thanks for your work on this!

            I agree, there isn’t a once size all out there but I do pay attention to what folks here say about companies. But back to my original question I’m really looking for a list of Zombie companies – the ones that the trained eye knows are dead no matter what and you hold on to in hopes of getting some of part of your initial investment back. For example I’m holding on to Timberland Resources since it got trashed years ago. My guess is that its another one of those lifestyle companies that is just sitting around waiting for somebody to get interested in it once again. The recovery from selling it is hardly worth the effort so it just sits there doing nothing month after month after month.

          • On March 21, 2020 at 2:43 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Ah, well if you are looking for zombie companies, I believe John Kaiser covers those over at his Kaiser Research as “bottom fishing” opportunities.

            There are a few optionality plays that may fit that criteria that are dead until higher metals prices, but for the most part, I wouldn’t want many zombie companies that run the risk of imploding under current conditions, when there are so many good companies that have sold off so much at firesale prices right now.

            May your investing be prosperous.

        • On March 21, 2020 at 5:30 pm,
          Canucksi says:

          Awesome response Ex. I always enjoy your views and the time it takes to compile your responses.
          I do understand the insights shared above… I just think about, for example, Doc often mentioning (during his podcasts – which, by the way, are some of my most favourite listens offered on the Ker site) that he has his basket of wishlist companies he’s waiting to buy or has been nibbling on over time… he usually drops that teaser, but hasn’t been as forthcoming on the bucket of company names (although I do recognize that he’s shared others such as Yamana, Equinox, and some oil co’s. – and for that I am definitely grateful). I had formed the impression from his comment a couple of months back that, going forward, he would increasingly be identifying individual attractive mining stocks and then discussing his view on the associated opportunity of buying each of those particular stocks. Part of that opinion would/could include aligning the selected stock with one of the noted strategies/buying criteria as you have so well-outlined above.
          For you Ex, you have openly shared your insights, portfolio and recent purchases and, honestly, that is one of the main reasons why I religiously visit this site daily, so thanks much for that.
          To Doc, Mr. Fleck, all of the SME’s and contributors sharing info and stock considerations on this platform, thanks much and I wish you success with your investments.

          • On March 21, 2020 at 6:41 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Thanks for the kind words Canucksi, and I agree that this is a great platform with so many sharing their ideas, insights, charts, breaking news, interviews, and macro economic backdrop and drivers. I believe Doc also mentioned adding to Hecla, Alexco, Auryn, and maybe Eldorado, in addition to Equinox and Yamana. He mentioned he was reviewing Argonaut, and considering getting back into K92 Mining if it pulled back (which it did and I added to more KNT there). I’ve also added to Silvercorp, Silvercrest, Coeur, and Americas Gold & Silver the last 2 weeks. USAS and SVM are now my largest positions, surpassing AR Argonaut, which I added just a little bit to. I’ve also been adding a lot to my (MMX) Maverix Metals position on the pullback the last few weeks – It’s a royalty company which now has a much higher weighting in my portfolio.

            Over the last 3 weeks, I’ve additionally added small amounts to the following positions: (IPT) Impact Silver position, (EXN) Excellon Resources, (DSV) Discovery Metals, (SMTS) Sierra Metals, (NEE) Northern Vertex, (TML) Treasury Metals, and started a new position in (VZLA) Vizsla Resources. I also added to my (UUUU) (URG) and (NXE) positions in the Uranium space.

          • On March 21, 2020 at 6:52 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            I had also added to my MUX position the end of last week, but sold it off completely mid-week as I’ve been getting more concerned about their performance over the last 2 years, and over the last 2 quarters.

            According to Eric Coffin Rob & MUX sold some of their GBR position to bring in much needed funds for MUX about 2 months back and needed the cash, their production costs have been higher than expected at Black Fox, then the COO left this last Wednesday, and on Friday did a production update regarding Argentina being in a state of emergency from Covid 19, so they pulled their guidance through year-end, stopped work at Los Azules, and reduced the team in the Timmins area. I feel like there are other Gold producers with more going right for them or with less challenges and that freed up some of the funds that got reallocated elsewhere.

          • On March 21, 2020 at 6:54 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            that was worded poorly. I added to my MUX position at the end of 2 weeks ago on the 12th and 13th, and sold out of the whole position mid-week last week on the 18th, to free up funds for buying the 19th & 20th.

    • On March 21, 2020 at 5:45 pm,
      Canucksi says:

      Mike, I have a few as well. One I had been sitting on for years was Eli. It was a lot of talk and promises but going nowhere for a long time, so I figured it was zombified. I sold about 2/3 of my position about a year ago, didn’t follow it figuring that, during the anticipated ultimate big sector upswing, I would sell into the general mining interest. Then, kabam! Obviously, some things happened and now I wished I would have been actively following the company’s strategy and understanding the traction they were getting.
      I do have a set of companies in my portfolio that I figure would likely fall into your Zombie category. a couple of them are up in the Yukon.

  5. On March 21, 2020 at 10:23 am,
    Bill says:

    G’day…I mention ed cash would be king mid Feb….markets incl gold would melt…
    Euro is in big doo doo. USD is not used toilet paper “Bob Moriarty” everyone elses is in time of crissis…foolish gold bug. The US had the best economy still the best of the worst….their all broke at the end of the day on the idiots buy granite countertops are getting a lesson..prolly in bancrupcy. Most cant find 400bucks. Leverage is getting a lesson aswell. My buddy lost his shirt as hes an idiot and hes living in my condo….but ive samdbagged huge for such events…
    Once the gov throws the kitchen sink at the system gold and shares should do well i think…

    • On March 21, 2020 at 11:04 am,
      Matthew says:
      • On March 21, 2020 at 11:08 am,
        Matthew says:

        Priced in gold, the dollar has taken back about half of its big loss of the last 18 months:
        https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24USD%3A%24GOLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=11&dy=0&id=p40876750360&a=729264245

      • On March 21, 2020 at 12:10 pm,
        OOTB Jerry says:

        Gold held up well…..on Friday……….Let us find out what happens Sunday night……
        I think silver is fine………and GOLD is a life saver……

        Real estate in the USA…..is in big trouble……wait and see……Boomer just lost about 50% of there nest egg….and the pensions are toast….The govt has stolen $23 Trillion and counting…..and given it to their friends……that is just the amount they show on the record……..Fasbe 56..says the govt does not have to show or keep records.
        The Pentagon……is missing….$2.3 under Rumsfeld 9/11, $21 Trillion under Obama, and another $40 Trillion under the current set of thieves.
        And we are not even talking about the approximate and $210 Trillion in bets on the derivatives…..

        • On March 21, 2020 at 12:24 pm,
          Bill says:

          I think RE in areas will be hurt…But REITs that are in Apt rentals and Industrial will do fine…The demographics for rent apts is VERY good and better in bad times. As long as int rates stay lowish…

          • On March 21, 2020 at 12:49 pm,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            Bill…..I have a REAL ESTATE DEGREE from Indiana University…1971….back when nobody knew what real estate was…. 🙂

          • On March 21, 2020 at 12:52 pm,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            BTW….I think You, will be fine……just keep and eye on them…..jmo

          • On March 22, 2020 at 4:33 pm,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            Bill………I posted this below for your heads up………..
            https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/widespread-panic-hits-commercial-property-markets-deals-implode-renters-disappear
            The shutdown is also having an effect on apartment buildings and industrial properties. Nothing is off limits, and it’s sending the commercial property market into chaos.

  6. On March 21, 2020 at 11:43 am,
    Tony says:

    I would like to see a list of silver producers and near term producers that have a “All in Cost of mining” under the current 12.50 an ounce that silver sells for. Because I don’t think silver is coming back much more above that anytime soon. So any company that is still mining better be below that.

    • On March 21, 2020 at 11:58 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Hi Tony,

      These figures are always in flux with producers based on performance from multiple mines, different ground conditions or stopes mined, potential set backs with rain, or equipment repairs, or metallurgical recovery rates, or improvements being made and tested, or labor issues, or this month Covid 19 shut downs or staff reductions….

      Basically these AISC costs (which are heavily massaged or skewed anyway) change for each company quarter after quarter and add up to a annual number that only hits guidance a percentage of the time. Overall costs from labor, fuel, exploration for mine life extension, mine optimization, and the underlying metals prices for a given quarter are all moving targets.

      ____________________________________________________________________________

      However, here is something I posted last September that has where things were at roughly for the Silver producers at that time. Most of the producers costs actually went up in the 4th quarter of last year though, but here in Q1 the metals prices were much higher, then crashed, but so did Oil prices, so it will be interesting to see how these get adjusted on the next round of quarterly reports.

      ______________________________________________________________________

      September 3, 2019 – @Excelsior:

      “With $Silver popping up around $19.50 area, it seemed worth looking at the #AISC All-In Sustaining Costs for the #producers to get a sense of if they can make money around these prices.”

      “These figures are from each companies Q2 Production reports, however, these numbers are in constant flux, get massaged and tweaked for optics, and will vary on each quarterly report.”

      $SVM Silvercorp Metals – AISC of $3.52
      $PAAS American Silver – AISC of $6.12
      $CDE Coeur Mining – AISC of $9.17
      $USAS Americas Silver – AISC of $10.50
      $HL Hecla Mining – AISC of $11.16
      $FSM Fortuna Silver – AISC of $11.30
      $FRES.L Fresnillo Plc – AISC of $11.83
      $SMT Sierra Metals – AISC of $12.31
      $SSRM SSR Mining – AISC of $12.60
      $ASM Avnio Silver & Gold – AISC of $13.10
      $HOC.L Hochschild Mining – AISC of $13.40
      $GGD GoGold Resources – AISC of $13.61
      $AG First Majestic Silver – AISC of $14.76
      $EXN Excellon Silver – AISC of $16.11
      $GPL Great Panther – AISC of $17.55
      $SCZ Santacruz Silver – AISC of $18.37
      $EXK Endeavour Silver – ASIC of $20.90
      $IPT Impact Silver – AISC unknown (but close to $18)
      $MYA Maya Gold & Silver – AISC unknown
      $SBR Silver Bear Resources – AISC TBD – pre-commercial ramp up

      https://ceo.ca/index?054c412ddbe5

      • On March 21, 2020 at 12:01 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        As for the Silver price, I could see it bouncing back up into that $15-$17 range it got stuck in for a while, which would do less damage, than Silver staying down in the $12-$14 range for an extended period of time.

      • On March 21, 2020 at 12:09 pm,
        Tony says:

        THX EX

        • On March 21, 2020 at 12:16 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          Sure thing Tony. You’ve raised the key question most investors should be considering not just for the short term, but also how markets may roll in the medium to longer term trend. Cheers!

      • On March 21, 2020 at 12:14 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        I don’t have a complete list of “near-term producers” or developers costs, but consider all of them slightly suspect until they are actually in production and performing as planned (which rarely happens).

        I do believe that MAG Silver, Silvercrest, and Alexco have low enough costs and high enough grades to go into production at current metals prices but it would be lean for them, and they’d not produce the same plan or stopes, as they would if the metals prices were higher.

        Other developers closer to production like Bayhorse, Aurcana, Silver One or Minco need higher prices above $18+ to really be viable.

        Then there are Silver developers like Discovery Metals, Kootenay, Abraplata, Silver Bull, Dolly Varden, etc… that still need more questions answered to really back up their current economic studies and projections.

        At $20, almost every Silver company can make money, and some of the most depressed companies would surge to life, out-performing the known players.

      • On March 21, 2020 at 12:33 pm,
        Matthew says:

        Thanks Ex. I think we’ll be fine with any that have plenty of cash and relatively low debt or preferably, no debt.

        Btw, my guesstimate for IPT’s AISC is more like 16.50. The company had positive earnings for Q3 even though silver traded between 15 and 17.50 for 8 of the quarter’s 13 weeks. And for the remaining 5 weeks, most of the trading happened below 18.35…
        https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SILVER&p=W&st=2019-07-01&en=2019-09-29&id=p10879128676&a=729292934

        • On March 21, 2020 at 4:29 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          Those are good points Matthew, and I think what some folks are forgetting is that for the last few years, most of the producers have worked like crazy to reduce their costs, upgrade their equipment, optimize their mines & mills, and have a lot lower costs than they did in 2008 or 2015 for example.

          Many of the companies worked like crazy to reduce their debt obligations as well, so even though it doesn’t look like it, most of the producers are in much better shape in 2020 than they were in 2016 when they surged much higher. Granted, Silver broke below the 2016 low, but now so has Oil, which is one of their larger cost inputs. What is unclear is what impairment charges companies may need to take at these prices, like what we saw with Coeur recently at the Silvertip mine, as they go back to the drawing board to figure out a better mining sequence and boost their mill throughput.

          As for IPT, I believe I heard Fred mention that their all in costs are somewhere between $17-$18, and a contributor over at ceo.ca went on a site visit there where Jerry Huang their IR guy, and their team seemed to indicate they’d were waiting to bring on more production at $19+

          @DirkDiggler (aka Greg Nolan) did a bang up job with his Impact Silver (IPT) review if you didn’t catch it when I posted it last time>

          _________________________________________________________________________

          Impact Silver (IPT.V) site tour Feb. 2020

          March 1, 2020 Greg Nolan

          “When management is ready—when the price of silver stabilizes at a level that will guarantee a desired return (USD $19.00-plus)—they’ll begin ramping things up to full capacity. This puts the company in an enviable position.”

          https://equity.guru/2020/03/01/impact-silver-ipt-v-site-tour-feb-2020/

          • On March 21, 2020 at 4:32 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            I haven’t watched this since it came out but this was a good presentation with Fred from the MIF earlier this year.

            > Fred Davidson, CEO of IMPACT #Silver Corp. $IPT $ISVLF

            Metals Investor Forum #MIF Jan 17-18, 2020 #CorporatePresentation #VIDEO

            https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tj3lP24eG2E

          • On March 21, 2020 at 4:32 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Brien Lundin talks to Fred Davidson, CEO of $IPT $ISVLF IMPACT Silver Corp.
            Jan 17-18, 2020 – #MIF Metals Investor Forum #VIDEO

            “Fred Davidson CEO of IMPACT Silver Corp. and Brien Lundin of Gold Newsletter discuss the company’s significant $silver producing mines in south-central #Mexico – the Royal Mines of Zacualpan Silver District and the Capire-Mamatla Silver District.”

            https://youtu.be/As2fK2oXlso?t=1

          • On March 21, 2020 at 4:35 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Impact Silver – When the beat-boom-boom-pat-pat like that

            Feb 5, 2020 #VIDEO

            1:43 – Company Overview
            3:00 – Silver Market: Drivers, Past Tendencies and Predictions
            8:31 – Volatility of the Silver Market: What Signs Should You be Aware Of?
            10:37 – Business Plan: Has it Changed Over the Years?
            15:34, 30:40 – Scaling Up and Restrictions for Growth
            18:01 – Shareholder Returns and Timeline for Bringing Value
            26:18 – Cash Position: Will They be Going Back to Market in 2020?
            28:47 – 2020 Moments to Look Out for From Impact Silver

            https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RSt-S27iNCA&feature=youtu.be

          • On March 21, 2020 at 4:55 pm,
            Matthew says:

            Ex, I’d say waiting for just 19.00 to bring on more production suggests a lower AISC more than a higher one since it wouldn’t make sense to ramp up production for little reward, especially with silver’s volatility. So it might be 17-ish but I doubt it’s much more based on Q3 ’19 highlighted above.

            As an aside, I’ve come across companies that claimed low costs but still couldn’t deliver a profit. When that happens, the smart investor ignores AISC and goes with the proof that is profitability. Those who believe in the greatness of government, however, would probably choose to trust AISC numbers regardless of earnings.

          • On March 21, 2020 at 5:18 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Yeah, I agree with you there that the ultimate metrics is producing a profit and for IPT it was somewhere between the $17-$18 level, and yes, at $19 they’d be ramping up while already being profitable. It does make prudent business sense to try and capture a bit more margin on ounces produced, so I could see any company holding back some production until they are actually going to turn a profit, versus just break even.

            As for the AISC, as I mentioned above, many companies massage those numbers or tweak them to give the impressions their costs are lower, but then still don’t generate a profit, so they should all be taken with a grain of salt.

            As for government statistics, I don’t really trust them at all, but that is it’s own kettle of fish.

          • On March 22, 2020 at 5:10 am,
            Excelsior says:

            With Silver trading in the $12-$13 range as of late, most of the higher cost producers like Impact, Santacruz, Excellon, Avino, Great Panther, Endeavour, etc… aren’t going to be profitable regardless. Far from actually.

            The companies that have added some Gold production into their mix should fare a bit better though.

      • On March 22, 2020 at 2:45 am,
        Thomas says:

        The current numbers are probably higher as base metal prices are much lower now
        Hecla for examples has $29.52 without by-products

        • On March 22, 2020 at 4:08 am,
          Excelsior says:

          Yes, my suspicion is that many of the Silver producers will have had cost creep moving their AISC up from the numbers above, especially as the underlying Silver price moved from $19.50 last Autumn down into the $16-$17 range last year, causing some changes to mining strategy, and now the the bottom dropping out in prices from the $16s down to the $12-$13 level in March.

          While the price in Oil cratering may help offset cost increases some, that still is no remedy for the falling price of the primary asset, and Zinc and Lead prices have also pulled down by over 20%, which doesn’t help either. For most Silver Producers, they figure their All-In costs after their by-product credits, as most are polymetallic deposits with Silver/Zinc/Lead or Silver/Copper or a few Silver/Gold, so looking at costs without those co-credits isn’t that relevant, as their business models are build including them.

          It is likely we’ll see most AISC figures move up higher by $1-$2 per ounce, which puts the vast majority of companies in serious trouble if the Silver prices were to stay lower for longer. Still, I’

          • On March 22, 2020 at 4:14 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Not sure what happened on that post but I lost the end of it.

            The last part was just that while costs will likely have increased for most companies as the Silver prices fell, I’d still expect Silver to get back up closer to $15-$17 in Q2, and higher than that by Q3 closer to $18-$20, even though markets are in such crazy flux right now.

            Most of the miners have been punished accordingly in share price and valuations already, since the markets are forward looking, but we saw many of the Silver stocks rally last week, even in falling prices, because investors started running the numbers and the selling got overdone, even if their costs rose, and revenues fell. Some that were struggling to show a profit at $17-$19 Silver are now further away from the profitability line, but most of their shares were destroyed already this month, so it appears most of the carnage has already been baked in at this point.

          • On March 22, 2020 at 4:29 am,
            Excelsior says:

            In a nutshell, the Silver Producers have been crushed, and rightly so, as the prices have fallen out of bed. What I’ll be looking for is what their plan is to address the concerns in their Q1 reports.

            – How will they continue to lower costs? Are they slowing down, reducing staff, improving recovery rates, increasing throughput?

            – What is their mining sequence strategy or do they need to adjust where they are mining in their deposit? Should some plans be shelved until higher prices?

            – Are they going to “high grade” to stay alive, and would that strategy be shooting themselves in the foot and stealing from future margins on their best ounces in the ground?

            – Are they going to be taking impairment charges on ounces that are now unprofitable at current prices?

            – Will the Silver companies that expanded into Gold resources fare better, and will those assets offset the overall weakness? Will they downshift Silver/Zinc/Lead/Copper production, and ramp up more focus on Gold production?

            Those are some questions I want answered when we get those quarterly operations updates in April & May from the Silver producers.

          • On March 22, 2020 at 5:05 am,
            Excelsior says:

            I must admit that Silver producers that diversified into Gold production are looking like geniuses at this point. I was against this trend the last few years, figuring they were diluting down their optionality to rising Silver prices that would be arriving, but so far, Silver prices have not moved up into the $20’s and stayed there, as most expected would play out when Gold blasted above that $1370-$1380 resistance zone.

            Gold has absolutely captured more of the “safe haven” fear trade on Iran missiles, Cornavirus, general market fears on Oil price crash and exposure to the banks holding their bad debt. That doesn’t mean Silver isn’t a Precious Metal, but just that it doesn’t get as much of the safety bid right out of the gate in crisis. It will pick up that bid over time though as things calm down a bit more.

            Regardless, companies like SSR Mining, Hecla, Coeur, and Fresnillo made the move to diversify into Gold first in the period from 2016-2018 and I wasn’t a fan at the time, because I was anticipating the eventually Silver would far outperform Gold, and that this was going to takeaway some of their upside torque to play it more “safe” with the gold ounce.

            Next the medium/large companies like First Majestic and Americas Gold & Silver added cornerstone Gold assets. First Majestic took over Primero to acquire San Dimas spiking Gold as a percentage of their production mix, and then Americas Gold & Silver took over Pershing for Relief Canyon, also spiking the Gold component to their production mix. I still had the same reservations as when the Silver Majors did so, but since Silver was having a harder time getting off the mat, it did seem to make sense for both companies to do so.

            In the smaller producers we witnessed Great Panther take over Beadell for their Gold deposit, Avino Silver & Gold reacquired Bralone for theGold, but then recently sold it to Talisker Resources and kept a stake in them to operate it, and then most recently Excellon Resources took over Otis Gold for their resource, and to diversify into the yellow metal.

            While this does dilute down most of the Silver producers “purity” and sole leverage to Silver, those transactions to diversify into Gold are all looking much smarter in the face of the current Silver prices, and honestly, where Silver prices have been stuck since 2016 for the last 4 years. As a fan of both metals, I’m actually feeling most comfortable with companies mining both in tandem, and have greatly increased my exposure to Americas Gold & Silver recently, as well as adding Coeur back to my portfolio, and adding to my Excellon & First Majestic positions.

            Eventually, whenever Silver does finally start to make a move to the upside to catch up with the moves in Gold, the more Silver-focused companies like Impact, Endeavour, Fortuna, Silvercorp, Santacruz, and developers like MAG, Alexco, Bayhorse, Aurcana, Discovery Metals, Kootenay, Dolly Varden, Abraplata, Metallic Minerals, will benefit in a big way. I’m just not sure what happens to those companies until that time finally comes?

            Until Silver gets on it’s bike and rides, I’ll be most interested in the hybrid Silver/Gold companies, and the Silver miners with the lowest costs profiles, like Silvercorp (SVM).

            Ever Upward!

          • On March 22, 2020 at 6:17 am,
            Thomas says:

            How does Argonaut calculate its AISC? I assume they don‘t subtract any by-products as they are mainly a Gold/Silver Producer?

            Argonaut is back in crazy valuation area. How dependent is AR on the silver prices or how good is their Gold leverage?

          • On March 22, 2020 at 10:30 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Hi Thomas,

            Regarding how (AR) Argonaut Gold calculates their All-In Sustaining Costs, they outline that at the bottom of page 1 of their Corporate Factsheet.

            “AISC per gold ounce sold is equal to production costs plus the total impact of impairment write downs related to work-in-process inventory less silver sales plus general and administrative, exploration, accretion and other expenses and sustaining capital expenditures divided by gold ounces sold.”

            “Adjusted AISC per gold ounce sold is equal to production costs plus only the impact of non-cash impairment write downs related to the net realizable value of work-in-process inventory less silver sales plus general and administrative, exploration, accretion and other expenses and sustaining capital expenditures divided by gold ounces sold.”

            https://s22.q4cdn.com/115151820/files/doc_downloads/2020/factsheet/AR-FACTSHEET-MARCH2020-WEB.pdf

            _______________________________________________________________________

            As for the importance of Silver for them, it helps their Gold AISC as outlined above, but the prime driver for Argonaut is the Gold price and their Gold reserves. Silver is just a co-credit kicker for them, and they got a lot of it. 🙂

          • On March 22, 2020 at 11:10 am,
            Thomas says:

            Looks like AR is a good Gold play that also has quite some silver exposure.
            Do you have an idea why it has such a discount compared to others like USA or MUX?

          • On March 22, 2020 at 1:33 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            The biggest reason for their discount is that they previously had a few tougher quarters where equipment needed to upgraded, where guidance wasn’t hit, and where mine optimization needed to take place.

            In addition, as mentioned last weekend show when we discussed Argonaut, I don’t believe the market place is fully aware of how radically different their production profile will be when Cerro Del Gallo, and in particular, when Magino come online and into production in the next 2 years. Most analysts evaluating producers just look at ounces sold, revenues, net income, price to earnings, and leave it at that, missing their huge development pipeline.

            That is the current valuation arbitrage opportunity I see with Argonaut, but granted it will take some time to play through. I like Argonaut way the hell more than McEwen mining at current prices, as they’ve done far worse at missing guidance, have a real mess in Argentina, had their COO walk out last week, and again, Eric Coffin mentioned he had heard Rob & company were selling GBR Great Bear shares to make their payroll 2 months back.

            Americas Gold and Silver is a different story in that they’ve achieved most of their guidance and projections ahead of time, on budget, and had minimal issues at both their Cosala complex and at Relief Canyon. In addition, they got Galena being optimized now with new equipment and new mine plan years ahead of schedule with Eric Sprott cash injection. USAS is really firing on all cylinders, so they should have a better valuation.

  7. On March 21, 2020 at 1:32 pm,
    Glenfidish says:

    Bill, Tracy and jerry,

    Jerry not sure if your from Canada like the rest of us but he who thinks we are not about to go through the biggest bankruptcy phase in the history of Canada is delusional. Everyone is broke, even more broke now that they cleaned out the grocery store for Lysol, sanitizer and toilet paper on credit. No one will be spared unless like bill or others in here you have out aside for rainy day. This collapse will lead into 2030 but starts now.

    I still believe the housing top in Canada was spring 2016. The average home has not gone back pass those peaks. You can argue rich areas and pockets with Asian money or Russian money but I’m talking average home.

    Get ready the unemployment in Canada is also set to rocket as I type. The recipe is hurt.

    I expect gold/dow ratio to meet at 1/1 or 2/1 but as they get closer bankruptcy will shy rocket. And as they do get really close, I hope you are all smart enough to sell your shares.

    $2000
    $2500
    $3000
    $5000
    $10000

    You pick the price I’m not good at that.

    • On March 21, 2020 at 3:02 pm,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      Hello Glendidish..
      ………I live in the USA…..I have declared several times to be a gold bug…. I agree with you. The collapse is happening and as you say will extend.

    • On March 21, 2020 at 5:39 pm,
      Dick Tracy says:

      Glenfidish, my daughter wants to buy a property in Toronto and she has been waiting patiently. She needs to let this crash play out, we are going to see some real sad stories soon, get out the paper bag with the bottle. DT

      • On March 21, 2020 at 7:39 pm,
        Dick Tracy says:

        Some companies are already telling employees to get ready for a wage cut. Those are the ones that still have jobs. DT

        • On March 21, 2020 at 8:10 pm,
          OOTB Jerry says:

          Big problem……..with real estate ……need an income flow……on a monthly basis,,,,some just have a hard time figuring that out……not everything runs perfect for 30 yrs….

  8. On March 21, 2020 at 3:45 pm,
    RICHARD/DOC says:

    The odds are very good that a lot of these gold and silver stocks bottom between mid April and mid May. I’ve already started to purchase a little of some of them Like the conventional market, I believe that most the PM stock sector will form an L recovery pattern when the carnage is over and the bottoms are reached. Then we will have to wait some time for all the funny money printed to work its’ magic on the PM sector. I don’t believe as some are pushing that there will be this sudden pending demand that will be unleashed to propel the conventional markets to unbelievable heights. There will be a wariness to the market when good news starts to be released. Another factor is the dollar which will probably get stronger over the next 3 months. When the dollar peaks we will begin to look on the other side of the valley with hope. The gold bugs will be depressed but this coming time will be the best time yet to invest in PMs, especially gold producing companies. The prices will be unbelievable. We will have plenty of time to wade into these companies. Cash is king right now. A great example of a pummeled company is FCX which is on my list to purchase in the next few weeks. There are many others on that list. The candy store will be opened but you will have to be patient for the next run in the PM sector.

    • On March 21, 2020 at 4:42 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Good thoughts Doc. For a number of these beaten down mining stocks, the candy store seems to be open right now, but on a case by case situation of course, factoring in their costs & economics if they are producers, or their economic studies if they are developers, or their debt levels, if they need to raise cash and dilute shareholders further, and their individual technical chart set ups.

      I’ve been in the markets the last few weeks adding with some dry powder, but jumped the gun on a few of them that fell another 15-20% after I added. That is OK with me as I’m adding to some core positions started in late 2015 & early 2016 in some of them, some I topped up in late 2018, and others last summer. Some of the newer additions I’ve been in and out of completely, just doing some swing trading to scalp a few 20-30% bumps over the last few weeks with all the volatility in the markets.

      As these miners start leveling off and bouncing along the bottom, I’ll likely add one more tranche in most of them, and then hold for better days. One thing is for sure – none of these Gold or Silver stocks are “pricey” at current levels, and some look like they are holding their lows from 2018 or 2019 despite all the market weakness.

      • On March 21, 2020 at 5:33 pm,
        Matthew says:

        Wariness on the part of the great majority is a feature of all major lows so I’m not worried about that. In fact, it’s necessary for the best moves as we’ve seen over and over again. The HUI and GDX bottomed in late October in 2008 and by late December, just two months later, they were both up about 117%.
        If the miners continue to struggle for an extended period, the actions of all these insane politicians will be the reason.

    • On March 22, 2020 at 7:24 am,
      Glenfidish says:

      Hi doc!

      Do you believe these metal miners prices will take another leg down? If this is the case we are talking about 2008 miner prices. A double bottom? Before the next keg up.

      Not sure if you heard Peter Schmidt the other day regarding how every other market around the globe prices in gold has been taken down roughly five or take to 2008 levels. I can’t confirm that but peter has a good record. My point is if this is true the remaining metals prices in cad and us needs to go down and follow. Maybe it doesn’t but the trend looks like it should.

      Your thoughts?

      Also not sure what happened to bob but al or Cory should tell the old man to come back and participate. His delivery maybe strong but he is a valuable contributor for years who I appreciate like yourself.

      • On March 22, 2020 at 8:08 am,
        RICHARD/DOC says:

        Glen, sorry I didn’t get back to you. To answer your question, I think from here to the end of April could be the final catharsis for the PM stocks. It may even extend into May. My fear is that they then may bottom and move in a lower channel for some time. The monthly charts are warning that April could be a nasty month. If we believe that all the money printing necessary from a fiscal and monetary perspective occurs and you believe ultimately in the inflation possibility after the dollar peaks, then being aggressive in PM stock purchases is the place to be in April/May. If you believe this will take time to play out, then we should see a lower pricing channel for most of these stocks for months and this gives you plenty of time to determine what to buy and at what price. If you believe in the V recovery when the “all clear” comes, then you have to close your eyes and buy in the April/May time frame. Right now, it appears on the monthly charts, gold will get hit more in April and then take months to recover back to the highs of 1700. Right now the monthly charts are not telling you gold is in an all out deflationary move. A depression would help only selected stocks.

        • On March 22, 2020 at 8:14 am,
          Glenfidish says:

          Doc,

          Thank you for your post. It really helps to have your years of experience in investing and trends and to add that to the overall tools one uses to make determinations in there own investing. Thanks again for your rapid response!!

          Have a great weekend and please all of you be safe with this corona.

  9. On March 21, 2020 at 5:35 pm,
    Dick Tracy says:

    I don’t believe the bottom will be hit for a few more years, there is just too much debt out there and it is growing exponentially. A very few stocks will buck the trend but there are times it doesn’t pay to be in the market and this is obviously one of those instances. DT

    • On March 22, 2020 at 8:26 am,
      Glenfidish says:

      Hi Tracy,

      Let me get this right, you believe conventional/dow is in a bear market for next 2-3 years?

      Or are you speaking about gold/silver and the miners?

      I’m all confused lol

      • On March 22, 2020 at 6:15 pm,
        Dick Tracy says:

        Hi Glenfidish, the big sell off isn’t over, I believe the best place for me is on the sidelines, in any market. DT

  10. On March 21, 2020 at 6:03 pm,
    OOTB Jerry says:

    Being a gold bug,…….does not mean , you can not change and be a silver bug at the right time, …nor a stock stuffer at the right time….. 🙂

  11. On March 21, 2020 at 6:06 pm,
    OOTB Jerry says:

    It wasn’t until he met Mr Partridge, or “Old Turkey” as the traders used to call him, that he eventually figured out what he was doing wrong. Instead of picking up small changes in price movements and making small profits, Old Turkey would hold positions through the short-term price fluctuations and make larger profits as prices eventually moved further up. This is what led to Livingston’s eventual success and his famous quote, “Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon.”

    • On March 21, 2020 at 6:32 pm,
      Bill says:

      Thanks guys lotsa good comments. Peeps here get it!!
      Glenfidish::: my god yes people are up to their asses in debt in acanada and the more stupidity i saw the more scared i got…
      Canada is a train wreck in motion… God help us cause we have a goof ball at the helm.
      Alberta is TOAST…I didnt want to be chicken little but warned a few but it was futile just like 2008…
      Buisness as usual at our house hold and we can give our commercial renters a break for like 5 yrs… No worries. To many buying granite counter tops while they should have settled for OSB!

  12. On March 21, 2020 at 6:48 pm,
    OOTB Jerry says:

    Bill Holter………at jdsmineset……..
    Lastly, as physical gold and silver are becoming unattainable, there is only one last area left for exposure to real metal …the miners.The miners with real and verified reserves in the ground in our opinion are set to make stock market history.The “leverage” which has largely been forgotten about is still there.It looks like they turned or reversed on Monday and are acting much better.It is only a matter of time before investors understand it is their only avenue of exposure to precious metals to protect their financial lives.

    • On March 21, 2020 at 7:15 pm,
      Dick Tracy says:

      Jerry, Watch out for The Bear it is a really nasty, devious, market which will go on much longer and deeper than most think. It will suck you in until you believe it is gone and then the ambush begins. This is just the beginning of a Big Bear Market. DT

      • On March 21, 2020 at 8:02 pm,
        OOTB Jerry says:

        DT………..that is very good advice……….

        • On March 21, 2020 at 8:07 pm,
          OOTB Jerry says:

          Well…….phase 1 complete……the first sucking nearly complete in less than 30 days..
          I am un phased, I own zero stocks….as I have said before…
          Been hunkering down for years……Nothing at this point will surprise me, ….
          It is going to get a lot worse for those who just got smacked …..

  13. On March 21, 2020 at 8:00 pm,
    OOTB Jerry says:

    GOT PHYZ……………….
    By Marie Lemay, President and CEO
    Royal Canadian Mint, Ottawa
    Friday, March 2020

    https://www.mint.ca/store/mint/customer-service/faq-1100010?lang=en_CA&rcmiid=tf|tb|covid19

    With the ongoing challenges of the Covid-19 pandemic, the Royal Canadian Mint is implementing a temporary suspension of production effective today for a period of two weeks.

    • On March 22, 2020 at 11:55 am,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      IF………..I Wanted to SELL PHYZ………….I could have sold all I had at $5 over spot,
      I did not wish to sell any……I was offered…..by two differ dealers…….FACT.
      Tells me a lot, concerning the phyz market…..

  14. On March 22, 2020 at 7:06 am,
    David says:

    My 2 cents on price of silver:
    I am not sure if the value of silver is set correct in the first place. The Comex and LBMA are “paper” markets with price being set between commercials and speculators in “paper”. To exchange of metals is not the concern , but the manufactured price. Often the Come and LBMA don’t ensure that sufficient metal is held between the parties to cover bets. As regulators, CFTC makes exception to trading rules for the commercials (banks) which undermines the system. That leaves the price of silver based on the breakdown of the paper system and not actual supply and demand. As you see by the actual cost of producing an ounce of silver, it may not drive the cost of silver as much as hitting and removing the trading market with fraudulent contracts in a limited time and direction to affect a false price. The commercials are free to do this as the CFTC has chosen to favor the actions of the banks, thus making the “paper” markets a criminal activity and not a free market.

  15. On March 22, 2020 at 7:12 am,
    David says:

    Sorry for typos. As I type on my phone, the box shuts down. Then when trying to proof, it swings around the page making deletion more likely than proofing.

  16. On March 22, 2020 at 7:14 am,
    Glenfidish says:

    Ex thank you for all your hard research, it really provides an extra valuable tool for us investors to check on. Basically cuts the amount of research. Regardless everyone should due there own do diligence.

    Now with respect to Matthew, he brings up a very important point that all investors should pay close attention to. Cash on hand bebt.

    Here are my 8 main buying point references.

    1. Board of directors
    2. Management team
    3. Land area/ proven/ probable reserves
    4. Cash on hand
    5. Debt level
    6. Jurisdiction
    7. Stick price “attractive”
    8. AISC
    If they are all met and we are in a bull market, the green light will be hit once number 7 confirms.

    Now with all this being said and done. Many of you here including Matt, ex etc already know this.

    Ex if you are able to re-do that list from a different half glass full I for one would greatly appreciate it. Even Matt if your quick enough to play Tetris with the same list and out that list in form of strongest cash position vs debt. That would be really good food for thought.
    Make no mistake ex your list is solid as they come.

    Cheers

    • On March 22, 2020 at 7:38 am,
      David says:

      One of the first things I look at is the Outstanding Shares and warrants. If appears diluted for the resource and price, then I like to see who owns those shares and the extent of involvement of management. Good examples are Great Bear and Irving.

      • On March 22, 2020 at 8:24 am,
        Glenfidish says:

        David,

        That is a very astute point which skipped my mind but that I learned years ago when Matt pointed that out to me. In fact that would probably rank top three for Matt on my list and equally for me.

        With that being said David, I probably as I have spoken to Matt in many occasions don’t purchase enough miners with very low float not because I don’t think there attractive but because many don’t have high volume and I can only purchase via on a longer term objective to accumulate as many as possible.

        Now this is we’re I may differ them others. Yes I agree that dilution stay away, I just try to find a balance of not so much dilution combined with stocks that have higher volume. When I want to buy I want to buy all at once. When I want to sell I want to sell all at once. Maybe I have a disorder lol. But I know Matt preaches patience and impact would be a good example of having starting accumulating at .20 cents and up etc.

        Thanks David for your input.

        • On March 22, 2020 at 10:38 am,
          John Kruschke says:

          I always have to play Devil’s advocate, if I don’t who will?
          Glenfidish your eights points are great, but does this suggest that the over all Economy and investing climate does not have has anything to with the Company’s ability to perform from the stock’s perspective?
          How about sentiment indicators and bullish percent.
          Last year I rode a non mining company from.01 to .90 in two weeks. Did the fundamentals support this?
          Of course not.
          Thats like suggesting JPM’s hoard in Silver has nothing to do with the price of the metal in the futures.

    • On March 22, 2020 at 12:37 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Hey Glenfidish – Hope all is going well amigo, and thanks for the kind words.

      As for your list of criteria, it looks good and seems to mirror most of what we hear from pundits and have heard for years, but I personally don’t have a rigid checklist like that and evaluate each opportunity on its own merits, and don’t expect that any company that can check all those boxes from the beginning of the evaluation isn’t already priced accordingly so.
      The short version for me is: Yes, make sure the people are good and have a pattern of success; but in really it is EVERYTHING ELSE that is important to spend the time on instead. My questions are why is this company such an outlier, and why is this valuation so high/low compared to peer companies?
      Then I start peeling back the layers of the onion to see if it looks good from the outside but is rotten inside, or conversely, if the outside layers look a bit rough, but inside the core is intact and there is a lot of value locked inside.
      Rather than try to go meet management for a drink or ask them questions as I shake their hands and stare into their eyes, I much prefer to go get a series of questions answered, but it isn’t always the same list, and depends on the project, commodity, jurisdiction, and type of deposit, mining method, and processing, and rarely has anything to do the with people or board of directors. Some questions are appropriate to one project on infrastructure, or water access, or gang issues, that are not appropriate for another project evaluations.
      _______________________________________________________

      There are exceptions of course, where those people play a big part of the valuation…. like if Ross Beaty & Frank Giustra are combining producing gold companies – sure, that’s a win, or if Quinton Hennigh is on the geological technical team, sure that’s a plus, although he’s spread himself a bit thin lately in too many companies.
       In reality though, in most cases, I don’t actually care if it a “world-class management team” or Tier 1, Tier 2, or Tier 3 deposit if they can make a project work, and answer the primary or unanswered questions.

       I usually make more with the Tier 2 and Tier 3 teams and projects than the largest projects or biggest superstars anyway. When there are big wins in the more obscure companies, there are few rooting for them in those instances or takeover bids or drilling successes, because almost everyone “missed it…” “didn’t see that happening…” “can’t believe THEY got taken over by Majors or Mid-tiers….” “can’t believe how high of grade that ended up being…” “didn’t realize they solved the water/land/mining method issue to where it does work now….” Etc…

       For example we hear every single day the repetitive Miss America answers of “It’s the people in the company that make or break it.”

      I can’t remember hearing one interview for the last decade, where someone was asked:
      – “What do you look for when picking out a stock to invest in?”
      … that the pundit or expert didn’t say, “Well, the people of course.” (cookie-cutter automaton answer)

      When the stock goes out and takes a nosedive because of all the other real problems that actually come up, everyone blames those situational factors as the deal killers, and their amazing people may not have been able to foresee them or even doing anything about some of them. A great BOD or Management team can still get screwed by Mother Nature, local community pushback, Caribou/Salmon/tortoises breeding, First Nations resistance or refusal, wild environmentalists, Union thugs, bad ground conditions, water, weather (snow/rain/fires/lightning/storms), price of power, road failures, equipment failures, fatalities, inspections, etc…

      ** Most of the great share-price revaluation opportunities I’ve been in were still weak in a few different areas on your list, but those “fatal flaws” that others dismissed were actually unanswered questions or incorrect assumptions other had made. When the new Tier 2 or Tier 3 teams improved those concerns over time, then the re-rating of the given company started, and proved not to be fatal after all; but rather, where all the value was actually locked up in their new valuation, and why a larger company finally came in to acquire them.

       I actually go out looking for companies that are very undervalued compared to their peers and want to know why? Why does this producer of XXXXX ounces have such a small market cap compared to these other producers? Is it the mine life concerns? Is it their costs & revenues versus their debt? Is it just the jurisdiction? Is there something wrong with the deposit? Are they getting worse and worse quarter after quarter, or are they improving quarter after quarter?
       What is so bad or so wrong here, and is it solvable?
       Why did people love this project/team/mine/target and then suddenly turn to hating it, was either extreme warranted? Were the expectations the market had sane and reasonable?
       Was the valuation spike all nonsense promotion, or newsletter guru worship, or actually newsflow related? Is that warranted?
       Was the crash in share price due to negative promotion, newsletter guru sell signals, or actually newsflow related? Was it overdone?
       Does the new valuation make logical sense, or are investors just being overly emotional?

      Most investors and newsletter writers spend huge amounts of their time checking the backgrounds of people, or calling them to talk about when they are going to release the next round of news that aren’t allowed to comment on anyway, or going conferences to meet these people and “look them in the eyes” and “watch their body language”. My thoughts are they already been vetted multiple times all the way through their careers to arrive at the positions they’ve achieved, and thus, they’ve already proving themselves by getting the job and getting voted in the BOD. Why spend much or time on it than that?
      Having said that it is important to look out for teams that are “Deal Jumpers” going from one hot trend to the next. If they’ve gone from Rare Earths, to Uranium, to Lithium, to Cobalt, to Blockchain, and now have a new Gold or Silver exploration project, then yeah…. Stay away.
      Also if a team, like the Oxygen Capital or Wexford Capital or Belcarra Group have a series of small to mid-sized wins, in more obscure companies and jurisdictions, and repeatedly build shareholder value, then I don’t care if they are considered Tier 2, and I’m still all over their projects.

      It’s humorous, because people love to follow a particular newsletter writer, or BNN pundit, hedge fund hero, or resource sector promoter/guru on their company picks, but they often pick just a many losers as everyone else. In addition, often the companies dissed on by pundits, hedgies, resource gurus, or newsletter writers, because of let’s say a jurisdiction or size of the initial resource or commodity of choice, will then go out and kick the crap out of many of their amazing picks or pet team/projects/commodity of choice.

      It would be humorous if it wasn’t so terrible that many of the investing funds, or Newsletter Writers stock picks where they “vetted out the team and projects” often then proceed to go out and take a dump in value and then they are mums the word and just sell at the bottom like everyone else. The failure after their amazing interviews or after getting chummy during a Private Placement where they get get 3-5 year warrants, is actually due to some other glaring problem or reality (grade continuity, crappy economic studies that missed majore concerns, reasonable metallurgy recovery rates, smelter penalties, underlying royalties, social license, permit hold up, jurisdiction risk/taxes in country, currency exchange rates, labor & union issues, failed tailing dams, equipment issues, etc….)

      >> Where are their “great people” “great project” & “great jurisdiction” comments then?

      “But…but… they used to work for XYZ Major. They are a seven footer” 
      “But… I looked them in the eyes and asked them the tough questions at PDAC, Beavercreek, Cambridge House, etc…” “Damn it, I even studied their body language at the conference or in the interview I watched” 😉
      “But clearly this is a Tier 1 Copper/Nickel/Uranium/Gold/Silver/Lithium/Zinc/PGM desposit… right?”
      “But… their project was in the Golden Triangle/Red Lake/Athabasca Basin/Lithium Triangle/Walker Trend!!” 🙂 😉

      They’ll often point to times on the chart where investors could have made great returns during the Hype phase of them telling everyone to buy it, but that is not when they or anyone else was discussing selling the given stock promo. Instead, most are buying into the frenzy beating on their chests with comments and unfounded declarations of success, and then when things turn there are 1,000 excuses why, some justified, and some just covering their bad call.

      **Conversely most of the times I really got bit and burned in this sector was when I took others confidence in management or on a project too serious, even despite red flags I saw showing up, and I got caught holding the bag because, hey, “Management is top notch” or “It’s a Tier 1 deposit”. I finally started only looking at the management after first looking at everything else first.

      **Those Tier 1 teams or projects turned out not to matter when the permits were blocked, when the union pressure destroyed their costs, when the continuity in grade in the economic studies turned out to be garbage, when the royalties on the project were killing it, when the ground conditions deteriorated, when weather excuses seem to keep blowing the guidance each year, when they realized the mill is the wrong size and they need to raise more capital, or the myriad of reasons where they magically didn’t foresee XXX and need to raise more capital.

      All investors are blinded by certain biases, and even the most objective, still have a preference to how they weight good and bad criteria from their own rose-colored glasses.

      Most put way too much importance on the people though, but not nearly enough focus on share structure/dilution/market cap metrics, balance sheet realities, frequency of capital raises/management compensation including options & bonuses, and completely miss the main importance of the project, metallurgy, cost of actually building the mine, crazy assumptions made in their economics studies, social license/community relation, permitting & environmental concerns, government taxation, where the headquarters is located versus the projects, and so many of those far more important issues to the success of the company.
      These other areas are what I spend my time on and are far more important to me when picking which companies I put my money in.
      For example, as mentioned above, one of the big issues plaguing the industry right now is that most fail to see how crappy economic studies can destroy new mines being built, their performance once in production, or even the rationale and economics on the projects that larger companies will purchase from the juniors. Their metal prices assumptions can be wack, their recovery percentage assumptions may be based on other mines or trial plant success putting their best foot forward, but may not match at all what happens when they really get underground and start working. Many resource estimation software programs or pit shell blocking exercises are just simply bullshit, and there are assumptions made on continuity or grade that are the result of wild jumps from too limited of drill holes, or expectations, or improper cutoff grades, etc…

      I post a lot of company interviews, because I’m looking at all kinds of data in those, but when the companies just get softball questions, then it always seems like the best team, best project, best commodity, best country to be doing business in, etc….
      It seems like a 100% waste of time to keep asking a mining company if they like their projects, if they were successful in the past, and if their teams are good, because they are all going to say “Yes!” I want to hear how they’re going to solve their problems, be they legitimate or just a perception issue.
      People can lie when their reputation or business is on the line. People can look into the camera and say something that is exact opposite of what they are about to implement at next week’s meeting.
      Mining is a tough business, and it is good to be skeptical, but I’m much more interested in whether a company can set reasonable guidance and goals, and then bring in the metrics that others not in their company agree are solid.
      – Are the drill results good, and do they match with the geological team was expecting or wanted to find?
      – Are they just drilling, raising capital / diluting shareholders repeatedly for the sake of growing a larger and larger deposit that ultimately is still economic and ultimately not going to work? (that is what a real lifestyle company is, and it is typically the explorers or earlier stage developers that fall in this camp)
      – If a 2nd or 3rd assets they have is so great, then why aren’t they working on it this year? Why not farm it out in a JV or spin it out? If it is great, why don’t they raise the funds to work on it, and if that isn’t possible, then why doesn’t the market realize that yet?
      As long as there is a plan with the pipeline of projects I’m cool, but if they don’t even know why they are paying the carrying costs to have all these other projects, and have no intention of working on them, then I want to see a plan to monetize them or get some value in partnering with another company on them.
      – How do they plan process the minerals found (heap leach, gravity assist, grinding/milling, flotation circuits, in-situ mining, ore-sorting, direct ship ore)?
      – Are their cost assumptions reasonable with power/water/hauling/cost concerns?
      – What is the true value of the infrastructure in place, will it work, is it up to code and permitting, what work needs to be done, what problems could come up with the old mill, shaft, hoist, equipment, trucks, etc…
      – Are there any penalty minerals like arsenic, antimony, manganese, mercury etc… showing up in too high of quantities? Is their concentrate going to be dirty or clean, or is it reasonable based on the smelter debits and credits to still be economic.
      – Do different projects or stopes need to have their ore blended to make the concentrates and metals recovery figures work? How expensive is that extra work and how complicated is that process?
      – Can a mine even be built here or will the costs or local communities / environmentalists crush it?
      – How low can metals drop before they are sunk? What happens if the metals rally 20-30% to the material that is assumed to be uneconomic at today’s prices, but would become economic in that scenario?

      There are so many things to ask and questions to get answered, but I’m looking for an unrealized opportunity for valuation upside, and don’t expect perfection, but want to know why some companies haven’t moved yet but may have something, and conversely, which companies have moved way too much, so I can buy them when they do their inevitable round trip back down.

      That’s a lot so I’ll stop there, but those are some of the things I feel are important to consider.

      • On March 22, 2020 at 1:47 pm,
        David says:

        Ex:
        Can you elaborate on your comments above? Fantastic detail Ex. Thanks.

        • On March 22, 2020 at 4:37 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          Hi David. Sure.

          Many times the creme de la creme of management teams or deposits still fail hard after the initial newsletter writer, hedge fund hero, or mining magnate promos, because there are other problems or challenges under the surface.

          > Example 1: (NXE) Nexgen Energy for the Uranium stocks. It clearly is an extremely well-endowed deposit, I got in during 2016 because of it’s proximity to Fission Uranium and the drilling success they were having. I joined ceo.ca in the summer of 2016 and found there was a cult-like following of NXE and 3-4 few blog-room heroes there (who ironically don’t even post there any more), that had a huge guru following that worshiped every passage they wrote. I feel sorry for the lemmings that followed them over the cliff, but not too sorry… 🙂

          These hedgefund heros, blog room heroes, and retired mining engineer know-it-alls were telling people Nexgen was the ONLY Uranium stock to own up at the highs in 2016, so the folks piled in (and I trimmed some back selling into that frenzy) and then it corrected hard.

          In late 2016 when Uranium bottomed in the mid $17s, many got interested in position in the miners for a turn around. So many (me included) were grilled by these guys and their groupies for daring to suggest other Uranium companies may outperform, especially considering the bloated valuation NXE had already achieved when it wasn’t in development and wasn’t anywhere close to production. Once again they decried all other companies and projects as worthless, only the Tier 1 project would make it and none of others would be needed….

          These rabid Tier 1 & management super-fans berated anyone that dared to challenge their thesis, and all other Uranium companies were labelled shams, mining executive whores, or fake uranium companies – [even the companies that were literally producing Uranium like Energy Fuels, Ur-Energy, Peninsula, Denison’s 20% from their Mill, or companies with most of their development done like Uranium Energy Corp, Berkely or other peppier explorers like UEX, ALX, or Skyharbour.]

          We know how that worked out. From late 2016 into the Q1 run of 2017 there was a huge surge across the board in the Uranium stocks, and most of the other Tier 2 or Tier 3 Uranium producers, developers, and explorers all out-performed this Tier 1 pet stock of so many, because those other companies actually did have merit and were undervalued. It was fun to post the performance charts of how NXE (the only Uranium stock to own) was doing in comparison to all the other (fake Urainum companies) that were just killing Nexgen in outperformance.

          The Tier 1 peanut gallery was either remarkably quiet, blustered in angry outburst that everyone was clueless, or took conversations into private rooms for a “we’re right party.” All the while they continued dissing on the moves higher in other Uranium stocks and proclaiming that any day a big suitor would come in and start a bidding war for their asset, but not before the second resource estimate came out that would move the valuation up so many multiples later in 2017.

          Well, the blog room heroes, hedge fund heroes, and know-it-all mining engineers and their groupies were taking wild-ass guesses at what the revised resource estimate would be, which they all ended up being dead wrong on, but the folks piled in regardless, but it didn’t live up to the hype and NXE started selling off in later 2017. But, all they knew was that major big boy miner was going to buy them out for 4-10 time where the valuation was by 2017, but not before they also got a huge royalty on the side at the same time. Yeah…. obviously none of that happened.

          It turned out that Nexgen fell from grace from the 2017 highs and hasn’t stopped crashing in valuation for the last 3 years, and that chat room over at ceo.ca went from 150 cult members, to about 10-15 more reasonable posters and bagholders today.

          I’ve gotten bullish again on (NXE) recently and have been adding to my position over the last 2 weeks, because the valuation is finally there, and now nobody wants this world class asset, because all the pied pipers have run for the hills.

          ____________________________________________

          > Example 2: (SOLG) SolGold & (CGP) Cornerstone Capital have the huge Copper Gold Alpala deposit in their Cascabel land concession.

          It was also obvious to many in mid-2016, after the drill results came in, that it was becoming a “Tier 1” deposit run by “Top Management.” Many of the same Tier 1 junkies that were chasing Nexgen to it’s top were chasing Solgold and Cornerstone to new highs. Bet on the 10 footers, listen to hedge fund heroes, Copper was so much more valuable than Lithium or Cobalt, etc….

          The Solgold/Cornerstone Copper groupies just new Ecuador was the best up and coming jurisdiction (which is clearly isn’t, but it has Fruita Del Norte moving along an this caused investors to speculate at any moment so huge Base Metals company was going to scoop up Cascabel in 2017.

          When investors brought up other Copper or Gold projects they trashed them in seconds, as there was only 1 Copper/Gold project to buy and it was SolGold’s. If investors brought up other supposed risky jurisdictions like West Africa, Latin America countries like Nicaragua or Brazil or Guayana, the Tethyn belt in Turkey/Bulgaria, Fiji, Papau New Guinea, Indonesia, etc… then they got schooled on how much better Ecuador was going to be.

          SolGold sponsored the PDAC at had some lame dinosaur growling on all their logos, at the airport, and product placement everywhere, so clearly that was a bell ringing at the top as far as valuation and eyeballs on the story. Either investors were already in at that point, or they weren’t getting in.

          Well the same thing happened the Tier 1 deposit and “Top tier management teams” could put humpty dumpty back together again when it rolled over and started heading down from it’s bloated valuations in 2017 through 2018 and 2019 and present. Hedge funds kept switching sides from SolGold with the primary interest, to Cornerstone with the minority interest, and rumors and attacks on the previously quality management ensued. Angry lemming investors that chased their guru’s recommendations into buying near the highs were pissed, and the company chat rooms at ceo.ca, stockhouse, stocktwits, etc… got ugly.

          Since the 2017 peak, both SolGold and Cornerstone Capital have had their butts handed to them, Ecuador has proved to not be as awesome as everyone thought (and the other jurisdictions that they trashed weren’t nearly so bad), and the share price and valuation on their best Copper project in the world has plummeted in 2018, 2019, and 2020.

          I’ve been buying (SOLG) recently because it is still a Tier 1 asset, but now the valuation is finally attractive, the air has come out of the bubble, and now it is time to buy when nobody wants it.

          ______________________________________________________

          > Example # 3: (IVN) Ivanhoe Mines was another company that claimed it had the best Copper project and PGM projects on the planet, and had Rick Rule as the primary promoter to plug his “Seven Footer” Robert Friedland back in 2013 – 2016.

          At conference after conference and multiple interviews from 2013 – 2016 Rick talked up Ivanhoe and Robert F. as the next coming, and eventually the story got traction back in 2016, and they do have amazing grades, and Robert is a force to be reckoned with. I owned it back then and rode it up and made a lot of money, but it got really frothy and I said so then. When I told folks I was moving on to greener pastures, they thought I was crazy as it was going up 10 times from there, and it was Robert freakin’ Friedland dude! I was like yeah, and its the not-so-Democratic Republic of Congo dude…. The market cap got really far ahead of itself since it was nowhere close to production, and has since 2016 been chopped down by 60%. Still great assets, rough jurisdictions, and far more attractive at today’s levels when nobody is discussing it any more.

          Robert Friedland’s team at High Power exploration, also got behind Colombian explorer (CDB) Cordoba minerals, sending it surging higher, and then like so many explorers with money issues, having Robert’s company raid most of the value out of the ownership percentages and crashed it down, as Colombia was crashing as Jurisdiction.

          This was the same time period where another “World-Class” asset and “Top notch mangement team” had taken (R) Red Eagle Mining into production in Colombia and got into ground stability issues, real cashflow problems, and blew up crashing down to $0.

          ___________________________________________________________

          > Example 4: (TMQ) Trilogy Metals was the next big Tier 1 Copper project to bandied around at the only stock Copper stock to own (noticing a trend here).

          Again, yes, it’s an amazing project, with top tier management, and it did have a great run from 2017 into 2019, when other projects were struggling, but Mongolia is not a good jurisdiction. I pointed out to folks look what happened to Khan Resources from that country nationalizing the mine. Look at Copper prices. You couldn’t tell that to the uber fans that were now all on Twitter guru chasing. In the last year it is half as valuable as it was, and being Tier 1 or having a top team didn’t matter when the selling came.

          _______________________________________________________________

          > Example 5: (REG) Regulus Resources – another Tier 1 Copper/Gold deposit elevated above the rest of the 150 Copper stocks which were all trash in comparison, and better than most of the 1000+ Gold projects as well if calculated that way. Well, same pattern of hero worship, promotion, Tier 1 chest-beating, and Top management arm waiving, and the stock has fallen by 75% since it’s 2017 highs. All the popular investing mantras be damned….

          ______________________________________________________________

          > Example 6: (PVG) Pretium Resources – Back in 2016, when tiny Jr Producers and Developers were blasting up 5-10 times, the larger funds and talking heads on investment shows were proclaiming that those were all junk, but that Pretium, now that was a real development project, Brucejack, that was truly Tier 1 asset and with another “Seven Footer” Bob Quartermain at the helm as chairman.

          Again, Rick Rule was a superfan, and yes, to Pretium’s credit they double in shareprice in the 2016 surge. However, I made far more money investing in the “Best of the Worst” producers with improving margins, and developers with improving economics getting 5-10 baggers in comparison. Investors are here for returns and to make money, not go work at the company and get married to a position.

          Many geos and engineers raised concerns about the nuggetty “raisin bread” nature of their Tier 1 deposit, and that after it went into production, that it may have continuity issues, and may not be able to run at the specs on the economic study (which was quite optimistic in most analysts eyes). Oh, the arguments that came out of those discussions. To Brent Cook’s credit I believe he nailed that from a ways off, and compared it what was seen at Rubi-con, when they had similar issues of continuity and their mine not producing as advertised.

          Well, PVG flatlined for years, sold off when other producers were rallying during seasonal rallies, but then finally rallied up to a new high in August of last year, only to crash back down 54% lower at present. Many stocks fell similar amounts, but they weren’t celebrated at the premier Tier 1 assets with top shelf teams either.

          My point in all of these, is the team and projects didn’t stop the carnage when problems came up, way too many people over emphasize those things at the peril of other investors that would have made better returns in lessor followed companies.

          ______________________________________________________

          > Example 7 (BCM) Bear Creek Mining – So this is another example of a company I owned for a stretch and like it but sold believing there were better opportunities, and not liking the capital spend needed on their Tier 1, world class project, with a world class management team. There were people on Seeking Alpha or Ceo or Kitco or Stockhouse that loved Bear Creek, and would trash all the other smaller developers like Alexco as too tiny. Well BCM is trading at 67% lower than it was off it’s 2016 highs, and being Tier 1 or having the best team didn’t save it.

          Meanwhile, a Tier 2 project, with their stodgy old Tier 3 team, like AXU Alexco broke to new highs at the end of 2019 and in early 2020, and has only pulled back 23% from it’s 2016 surge high. It sure looks like getting actual results like Alexco has had repeatedly with the drill bit and exploration programs, in renegotiating their stream with WPM, and in sinking shafts and moving forward towards production on a smaller deposit is far more important than all the hype and checklist biases and supposed truisms that so many investors hold.

          *** I’ll stop there but could keep going with more examples like Rubicon, or Primeo (where the top team was brought back in to save their Tier 1 asset San Dimas, only to raid the company assets and it destroyed all shareholder value).

          Bigger and top shelf teams are rarely the best returns.

          >> Even with all the success (EQX) Equinox Gold has had recently, keep in mind it is on the back of multiple other failed versions of these companies like Luna Gold (Tier 1 deposit + top team = Failure and they had to stop mining), and this really hurt one of their big backers Sandstorm Gold at the time. Then the next incarnation rolled Luna into a company with JDL Copper (David Lowell’s failed venture and he top shelf and a 7 footer), and put them into Trek Mining. Trek Mining had these same assets and all-star teams and was humped and pumped by Katusa and Casey and Rule, but also failed miserably.

          Then Ross Beaty’s company Anfield Gold, which was also a failure, despite a top shelf 7 footer like Ross, and sold their underwhelming deposits to a great fool company, took the cash to relaunch. I’m a big Ross B. fan, but still those that jumped into Anfield Gold with him got crushed. At any rate, they rolled up Anfield Gold, Trek Mining and NewCastle Gold, to start the latest incarnation Equinox and finally hit it big.

          It is key to remember that there is a very sad history of failure at all these projects, and prior top self teams, and even by Ross on his previous project, before they hit it big with EQX. It didn’t just happen overnight for anyone keeping score or paying attention to how these assets have changed hands over the years.

          Be careful only chasing the biggest projects and biggest names, if you want to make money in the mining space.

          _______________________________________________________________

          Now during this time period since early 2016 where, the PMs started the new bull market, with peaks and valleys inside it, it turned out that the Tier 1 companies didn’t perform the best by a long shot. Neither did the top management teams.

          In reality it was the mid-level teams and deposits that went from good to great that had the biggest wins.

          > Look at how (AGB) Atlantic Gold went on a long journey higher from explorer, to developer, to producer, with little fanfare before being bought out, and most investors were not even paying attention to it.

          > How about (NST.AX) Northern Star and Aussie producer has rocketed higher for years, and besides being one of the best performers out of the Gold producers, it is rarely discussed by talking heads on investment shows, by Gold gurus, or by newsletter writers. How did they do it without Tier 1 projects and popular seven footers?

          > Look at the epic turnaround from (KNT) K92 Mining and their surge higher where so many doubted their project, jurisdiction, and they didn’t have a super famous team. What they did do was go to work, have exploration success at Kora in a new zone, expanded the resources around the existing mine, and have been on a tear the last 2 years, despite what the doubters thought initially when snubbing them.

          > I’ve done well with Wexford capital as well. From mid 2016 – late 2017 their Marlin Gold was one company that continually climbed higher, then I rolled things over to their Royalty company (FISH) in 2018 and waited on what they were going to do with Marlin since it’s assets were depleting and they merged with Golden Reign to form Mako Mining. I got in a bit too early, but have been rewarded again, nonetheless as their project in Nicaragua (a jurisdiction most would turn their noses up at) has blazed forward into development and near-term production. Most aren’t even aware of this story, don’t know the management, and don’t realize that they have a very well-endowed asset. Newsletter writers aren’t pumping it, mining magnates at conferences aren’t hailing them as 7 footers, and yet, they are crushing most of the competition.

          I could go on to keep illustrating the point that success is in no way tied to having a Tier 1 deposit, Top management icons, or by how sincere they seemed when your newsletter writer of choice interviewed them at PDAC or Cambridge House or MIF or Beaver Creek. Most people are heard animals though, and will flock to the latest craze piling in and then running for exit doors because their guru of choice said to, and then will blame anyone else but themselves if they make a bad purchase and become a bag holder.

          Again, for a member of most management teams or Board of Directs, to have made it through their careers and up into those leadership positions, then clearly they’ve already been vetted the whole way up, way more than some newsletter writer or financial show’s impression after meeting with them for 30 mins or 1 hour and forming an opinion. Just the fact that they rose to those positions, and have previous mining company experience, and had their careers analyzed and were still voted in, implies that they clearly aren’t a bump on a log.

          So the people are not nearly as important to focus on in most cases, as all the other criteria relative to the valuation metrics and project specifics. You won’t ever hear that in interview though, as every one gives the same speech….. “It’s all about quality people.” or “Small mines have all the problems big mines do, but without the size to bail them out.” (bullshit, the biggest mines have insane capital requirements, worse union issues, get nationalizes as key to the GDP of those countries, and get protested and blocked far harder than smaller mines do).

          Be careful propping up anyone as a hero, as nobody knows anything. Tier 1 deposits, absolutely don’t always outperform, and good management teams can still get their asses handed to them.

          Again, it is often the Tier 2 and Tier 3 projects and teams that have the biggest runs in share price, have the biggest reratings, and also get bought out.

          Now, in times like these where the Tier 1 deposits are on fire sale or have been abandoned, then that is the time to quietly accumulate them….. when nobody wants them.

          • On March 22, 2020 at 8:39 pm,
            David says:

            Of those mentioned, I have owned Ivanhoe, Pretium, Bear Creek twice, Alexco twice, K92 and Mako. Had loss in Bear Creek after giving up on their law suit issue. Gains in rest and only have Alexco and Mako currently. I had sold off some Ivanhoe before the tax issue and probably gad a loss after the tax thing, but overall gain. It did make me cautious about Rick Rule recommendations. Also bothers me when he asks people to send their portfolios to him for a rating and then trashes about everything in them. Sounds suspicious. Good stuff Ex. Thanks for more of your great insight.

          • On March 22, 2020 at 9:56 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Thanks David. I hold Alexco, Mako, and K92 as well. I did own Ivanhoe and Bear Creek in the past, but sold out of them years ago. I’ve had a core position in Nexgen for a while, added a bit last May, and then added more last week. I’ve also recently starting positioning in Solgold, and had started buying Regulus earlier this year up until the recent market gyrations in late February, where I liquidated it but, do intend to buy it back. There just doesn’t seem to be too much of a rush to get into Copper stocks.

            May your investments be prosperous. Cheers!

  17. On March 22, 2020 at 8:33 am,
    Dick Tracy says:

    A major depression is underway, everyone in society is feeling this. Prosperity is a way of thinking, we were all affected by The Big Bull Market and now that it is gone we will all be affected by that too. Americans have lived under the shadow of good times for so long that they have forgotten what really counts in life, (hint) it is not your cell phone. The economic conditions for a major fall have been present for a long time. One era has closed a new one is beginning but don’t expect it to be over soon or to see a return to the past we now live in a new era. DT

  18. On March 22, 2020 at 8:38 am,
    John Kruschke says:

    Good comments overall.
    The first thought is what is the difference between an investor and a speculator?
    Once again Doc is is starting to buy, the million dollar question is what is his target for selling.or is it rather a % gain, if so, again, what is the time?
    The next thing that will move markets is the proposed cash bail out for the American Public.
    To do the math, how long will this suspend the current economy and what comes after.
    This is a paradigm moment,Wall St already took your money from DOW 29,500, the question is now, how are you going to take theirs?

    • On March 22, 2020 at 9:41 am,
      RICHARD/DOC says:

      John, I’ve only bought a small position in HL and am cost averaging slowly in CDE. I believe both have further to fall. I’m pretty much all out of the major gold producers since i think gold has further to fall and can purchase at cheaer prices. I still hold some major silver producers like AG, SSRM—I don’t have a huge positions in these and will probably hold as they come lower. Then I’ll add a little more which I’ve done in the past. I have some juniors that have been pummeled in the past and will probably move lower yet—-they aren’t impacting my portfolio much. I was tacitly criticized in the past when I mentioned that I was only about 45% invested in the PM sector as regards my PM position. When the carnage came I sold out of my good producer positions and am only 27% invested in equities. I was never fully invested since I was uncomfortable with the 100% investment thesis of some since I felt the conventional market was really at risk and if we had reversal like we’re seeing, the PM stocks would also be sold. That philosophy has held up well and now I have the luxury of waiting to pick up a number of tremendous bargains in the future. I started purchasing a tiny position in HAL recently and am investing in NAT which actually benefits from the tremendous pumping of oil by the Saudis. My gut tells me that when we bottom it will be a long time before the PM stocks see the highs we recently had. I base this on long term chart trends. Eventually all the money printing should be a positive unless the economic system globally completely pukes. I’ll repeat one thing that should be important to everyone to consider—SO FAR, the long term charts do not show a complete puking by gold. If I see that potential I’ll inform everyone. Why is that important? It’s important in that it appears this supposed bull market in gold is still intact and that ultimately one of the best places to be in the future is gold producers and then silver/gold producers. I hope this helps.

      • On March 22, 2020 at 10:12 am,
        John Kruschke says:

        Thanks for the come back Doc.
        I have always been a listener. The saying that so goes JNK, so goes this market could not be more true today.
        Also thanks for your heads up on the Virus.
        I am not a Dr., and at this time unfortunately I still cannot give an intelligent response to “What Do You Think” I have to rely on others.
        I hope you do not take my comments towards you personally. You know I respect your Wisdom. With that being said, I also get my 2 cents.

        • On March 22, 2020 at 10:46 am,
          RICHARD/DOC says:

          John, no problem since I don’t take things personally. I don’t mind being challenged.

          • On March 22, 2020 at 11:43 am,
            John Kruschke says:

            We all can’t be in the passenger section munching on “happy pills”
            Somebody has to fly the plane. Have a good day.

          • On March 22, 2020 at 12:28 pm,
            Big Al says:

            Yes, and in our own way let make sure that we are part of those flying the plane.

      • On March 22, 2020 at 10:32 am,
        Dick Tracy says:

        Richard, a couple of months ago you said that if a crash was about to happen, you could see it in the charts you read and that you would inform us if that happened. You obviously are concerned but I don’t recall you posting the threat of a crash. DT

        • On March 22, 2020 at 10:50 am,
          RICHARD/DOC says:

          Dick, I did but I also said 2-3 times at the end of the year and in January that the markets had a good chance of topping in April-May. Then the corona virus came out of nowhere so it’s 2-3 months early. Also, I was ill in February so I didn’t pay a lot of attention to Kereport and I apologize for not saying anything with the first big drop.

  19. On March 22, 2020 at 8:41 am,
    John Kruschke says:

    One more. How convenient is it that the Financial Press never talks about the off shore accounts and those that manage them on K Street.

  20. On March 22, 2020 at 8:55 am,
    Dick Tracy says:

    An investor is a speculator. Stocks have not lost their lure. I fully expect to see a Little Bull Market imitating The Big Bull Market as The Fed tries to right the system, but The Bear is now in charge and if you want a hair of the dog go ahead, The Bear loves to maul those who are eager to get back in. DT

  21. On March 22, 2020 at 8:55 am,
    David says:

    I looked at a recent version of the virus bailout and looks like it is aimed at assistance to employers and corporations. Such things as tax deferral, loss deductions for corps, increased interest deductions… things that do nothing for the people ir employees. In addition, people that have reported income below $2500, get nothing. That doesn’t recognize the unemployment rate and CPI that havr been falsely reported over 20-30 years. Another provision provides for routing funds through the Exchange Stabilization Fund for corporate bailouts. The ESF is not audited just like the Fed is not audited. How do we know what is bailout and what is theft. Never ends with corruption.

  22. On March 22, 2020 at 8:56 am,
    John Kruschke says:

    The analogy is like a pilot getting in his plane, when asked where he is going, answers, “I don’t know, but I have lots of fuel.”
    Point A to B
    2 alternative landing spots in case of trouble.
    The Fukashima moment, What could go wrong?

  23. On March 22, 2020 at 9:01 am,
    RICHARD/DOC says:

    I would warn everyone on this site concerning the effects of the corona virus on their decision making as regards how one invests in both the conventional and the PM markets. The corona virus reminds me a lot of the Spanish flu virus back in the 1918s and f919s. Back then it broke out in about March of 1918 and then abated in about early summer. There was a second wave in the fall of 1918 and then the final wave in the spring of 1919. Of course clinically, they are 2 different viruses and the response today is totally different plus back then WWI was also occurring. The point is that you can have subsequent outbreaks after the subsistence of the first go around.

    • On March 22, 2020 at 10:52 am,
      RICHARD/DOC says:

      EX, if you’re out there—-be very nimble with your position in MMX. I don’t like what I’m seeing on the charts here.

      • On March 22, 2020 at 12:47 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        Thanks Doc. Yes, I’m actually swing trading MMX a lot recently, but have increased the size of it, due to a few good scalps and buying of the dips. If you feel it is going to be more challenged technically in the short to medium term, then let me know why you think so, and I may need to reduce it back down or sell completely. I’d like know what on the charts has you concerned, and will of course give it serious consideration.

        Keep in mind that MMX Maverix is not a miner, but rather they are a royalty company like Sandstorm or Franco Nevada, and they have 13 paying royalties and over 100 other Gold royalties or streams that will be paying them down the road.

        They have money in the bank and don’t need to spend much to maintain their small staff, and as their assets expand production or get close to going into production, then they’ll grow as a result.

        I believe much of the selling lately has been investors cashing out on MMX to cover losing positions in their miners, and when I saw the steep selloff in it, that is why I started accumulating it again. I’m not aware of any major fundamental isssues, but maybe there is just more technical pressure since it is on the big board.

        I’m open to looking at the charts or certain indicators, and avoiding more pain if you see it in the forecast.

        ____________________________________________

        Here is the MMX Maverix Metals Corporate Presentation and on page 8 it highlights their portfolio of assets. Some good partners on that list.

        https://www.maverixmetals.com/site/assets/files/3748/mmx_presentation_february_2020.pdf

        • On March 22, 2020 at 2:23 pm,
          RICHARD/DOC says:

          https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui. I hope this link goes through.

          • On March 22, 2020 at 2:48 pm,
            RICHARD/DOC says:

            Matthew, how do you pull up the individual charts off stockcharts and forward them The way I usually transfer doesn’t seem to work.

          • On March 22, 2020 at 3:03 pm,
            Matthew says:

            Doc, below your chart, to the right of “Annotate” click on Permalink. That will give you a short permalink that might work for most people but Silverdollar once mentioned that they didn’t work for him so after clicking on Permalink, I click on the “Reload with Link” that comes up with your permalink. That will refresh the page with a usable link at the top in the usual place for a web address that you can copy and paste. Just make sure that you hit your space bar before pasting so it’s not close to the text of your post. Also hit your space bar after pasting if you want to keep typing. For example, your second try above has “-trying” the link which you obviously didn’t want.

          • On March 22, 2020 at 3:04 pm,
            Matthew says:

            Let me know if I should clarify something.

          • On March 22, 2020 at 3:29 pm,
            RICHARD/DOC says:

            Thanks, I’ll play around with it and see what happens. I still may be sending some urls I don’t want but I’ll give it a try.

          • On March 22, 2020 at 3:34 pm,
            RICHARD/DOC says:
          • On March 22, 2020 at 3:35 pm,
            RICHARD/DOC says:

            Matt; thank you—–that did it.

          • On March 22, 2020 at 3:48 pm,
            RICHARD/DOC says:

            Ex; look at the link of the monthly chart of MMX. My concerns are the following. You have the RSI breaking below the 50% line for the first time in a long time and you have the MACD heading south with the 12 month MA leading the 26 month MA in a steep manner toward zero. The ADX black line is heading south telling you that bearish sentiment is now in control with the redbearish line moving up to meet the green liullish line which is turning south. The fact they’re almost meeting is a good thing since in a lot of situations it means the end of the bearish move although the black overall sentiment is very aggressive in moving down. If the green line was moving down more gently with the red line not aggressive I’ve noticed in the past that often the sell off can be fairly gentle. The slow stochastic line has often broken 50 and heading toward zero. When it has this number of variables acting this way the odds are further sell off. However, on the monthly chart, pricing is right at the lower BB so you hope it holds here. One of the things that you would look for next month is for the 12 month MA on the MACD to move a little lateral toward the 26 month MA which might stave off a sudden decline and hold the BB. However, right now april looks like it could from an odds standpoint become a nasty month for MMX.

          • On March 22, 2020 at 4:21 pm,
            Matthew says:

            Doc, since that’s a monthly chart, you’ll have to use a different approach so those not subscribed to stockcharts can see it. Next to “Annotate” simply click on “Print” for a usable link. The same is required for quarterly and yearly charts. Here’s your chart doing it that way:
            https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=MMX&p=M&b=5&g=0&id=p3860967992c&r=1584916954716&cmd=print

          • On March 22, 2020 at 4:27 pm,
            RICHARD/DOC says:

            Thank you for that info

          • On March 22, 2020 at 4:45 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Thanks Doc. Yeah I see the monthly chart you posted and it looks really oversold. It has totally fallen out of bed, which is why it is back on my radar, and it appears to have bounced off that lower Bollinger Band. The ADX shows it under pressure, as the recent trend, and there’s no doubt that has been the case, but even on the charts Matthew posted, the stochastics are way oversold.

            Sure it could stay in the slumps for a while longer but it looks like way better value here than it did a few months back.

            I typically get positioned a bit too early, when there still may be a little more downside risks, but I don’t wait until the monthly charts finally confirm an uptrend, or the easiest gains, and often the highest percentage gains have already been made.

            For those investing for shorter time durations, what do you or Matthew think of the Daily chart indicators being so oversold at present levels?

            http://schrts.co/crjAuyRU

          • On March 22, 2020 at 4:49 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            BTW Doc – I do agree with the comments you made on the Monthly chart and do appreciate you taking the time to post those charts and for those comments. Hopefully other readers here do as well.

            Another question, Wouldn’t you think that on monthly basis most Gold and Silver stocks likely look terrible after the huge rout in prices over the last month?

            I can see why one would be concerned with most miners here if looking at the huge fall in the prices, but won’t the turns up be more evident on the Daily and Weekly charts long before they are so obvious on the monthly charts?

          • On March 22, 2020 at 5:20 pm,
            RICHARD/DOC says:

            Ex, I’ve noticed that sometimes daily and weekly charts will give signals before the monthly but they tend to be at major turning points in bottoms and tops. Look at the EQX daily chart which looks like it could break higher. I was so tempted to take a position in it this week but then look at the weekly and monthly charts that especially on the MACDs are telling you loudly and clearly that I would ultimately get my hands slapped. Too often I’ve wanted to go with the daily charts because the MACD might be turning up while the weekly and monthly are in contradistinction to that. The vast majority of the time I might gain a little for a short period of time and then get my head handed to me when it suddenly breaks lower.

          • On March 22, 2020 at 5:39 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Good thoughts Doc, and yes there are times where a daily chart looks like a buy, but ends up being a false breakout and the weekly and monthly charts still rule the larger trend.

            After such a huge shakeout, it is likely best to wait for confirmation on the weekly and monthly charts, and you’ve given me a lot to mull over.

            I’m tempted to use the daily charts for getting positioned and then looking for the confirmation on the longer charts, or if they stay in conflict then to trade back out of it. That was my approach in trading MMX lately using the daily, but before I get complacent about holding longer term, I’ll spend more time watching the weekly and then monthly to see if we did just see the bottom or if we have several more months of pain.

            Thanks again Doc for the response and for taking the time to offer your analysis. It is greatly appreciated sir. While I’m rooting for the V-shaped bottom, I’m prepared to react accordingly if it ends up being a more consolidated drawn out bottoming process.

            Until then….. Ever Upward!

  24. On March 22, 2020 at 11:15 am,
    Charles says:

    Hi Doc – you mentioned watching FCX which is a stock I have been watching for a while. What is your target for a buy. It looks like it could double bottom around 3.50 or $4. Thanks.

  25. On March 22, 2020 at 11:31 am,
    RICHARD/DOC says:

    Charles, I am watching it. I’m hoping when these stocks get to their lows that they trade sideways for awhile which would be helpful to know when to purchase. Volatility at the bottom can kill you. I would prefer a whimper which we may get this time.The usual purchasers like the people on this site will probably want to wait this out and those not particularly interested in this sector in the past will most not likely be interested anytime soon. I’m hoping to purchase the first amount under 4. If I remember, I’ll post the first small position I take.

  26. On March 22, 2020 at 11:43 am,
    Charles says:

    Got it. Thanks Doc.

  27. On March 22, 2020 at 1:25 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    What We Might Want To Look For In A Gold Miner Bottom During These Unprecedented Times

    by Ceo Technician (@Goldfinger) – March 22, 2020

    “A ten minute video that talks about what investors might want to look for in terms of a bottom in the gold mining sector over the coming weeks and months.”

    http://energyandgold.com/2020/03/22/what-we-might-want-to-look-for-in-a-gold-miner-bottom-during-these-unprecedented-times/

  28. On March 22, 2020 at 1:41 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    Perfect Storm for Silver Coming: Ross Beaty, Chairman, Pan American Silver (PAAS)

    by @AndrewNelson on 22 Mar 2020 #VIDEO

    https://ceo.ca/@andrewnelson/perfect-storm-for-silver-coming-ross-beaty-chairman-pan-american-silver-tsx-paas

    • On March 22, 2020 at 2:48 pm,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      Interesting on the comment on Indian women wearing silver, ….I always thought , they liked to wear gold as a store of wealth…..

      • On March 22, 2020 at 2:54 pm,
        OOTB Jerry says:

        Recorded on Mar 12………….which explains some of his comments on price…..
        Wonder, if, he considered the stock plunge…. ?

  29. On March 22, 2020 at 2:57 pm,
    OOTB Jerry says:

    Market going to open in a few mins…….should be interesting……since the Congress can not get their act together, ….as of yet.

  30. On March 22, 2020 at 4:30 pm,
    OOTB Jerry says:

    Bill…………you might want to read this………just info giving a heads up….
    The shutdown is also having an effect on apartment buildings and industrial properties. Nothing is off limits, and it’s sending the commercial property market into chaos.

    Alexi Panagiotakopoulos, partner at Fundamental Income, a real estate strategy firm, said: “On the investor side, there’s widespread panic. There’s downward pressure on every aspect of every asset class.”

    And there’s no way to value a market when you don’t have a bid and an offer – and you’re not sure when the market will “re-open”. Further, there’s no way to try and model the future value of such properties when everyone is unsure of what the real estate landscape will look like when everything is said and done.

    Scott Minerd, chief investment officer at Guggenheim Partners said: “There will likely be long-lasting changes.”
    https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/widespread-panic-hits-commercial-property-markets-deals-implode-renters-disappear

    • On March 23, 2020 at 6:28 am,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      Coincidentally, this unprecedented action takes place just hours after real estate billionaire Tom Barrack (and friend of Trump) said the U.S. commercial-mortgage market is on the brink of collapse and predicted a “domino effect” of catastrophic economic consequences if banks and government don’t take prompt action to keep borrowers from defaulting.

      • On March 23, 2020 at 6:30 am,
        OOTB Jerry says:

        In Unprecedented Move, Fed Unveils Open-Ended QE Including Corporate Bonds

  31. On March 23, 2020 at 7:03 am,
    Matthew says:

    If stocks can’t have a decent bounce here, get ready for much lower lows sooner rather than later.
    NYSE Comp Index:
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYA&p=M&yr=20&mn=11&dy=0&id=t9411931851c&a=634927121&r=1584972045237&cmd=print

  32. On March 23, 2020 at 7:31 am,
    Matthew says:

    The Gold Miners Index, GDM, has not broken its 4 year uptrend support on a weekly closing basis:
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GDM&p=W&yr=7&mn=9&dy=0&id=p26486542074&a=727381853

  33. On March 23, 2020 at 7:33 am,
    Matthew says:

    The low for SLV so far happened at the same fork that it broke out of last June:
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV&p=D&yr=1&mn=10&dy=0&id=p10951931792&a=690799298

  34. On March 23, 2020 at 7:41 am,
    Matthew says:

    This has always been a certainty. I knew it, Peter Schiff knew it…
    The Federal Reserve just pledged asset purchases with no limit to support markets
    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/23/fed-announces-a-slew-of-new-programs-to-help-markets-including-open-ended-asset-purchases.html

    • On March 23, 2020 at 1:09 pm,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      answers my question on the SPV………..thanks for posting

  35. On March 23, 2020 at 8:39 am,
    OOTB Jerry says:

    Any one heard of a SPV………..that the fed just created…….., anyone know when it was created……
    Created to by stocks in a ETF…….
    THANKS

    • On March 23, 2020 at 8:42 am,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      Matthew, we were posting at the same time……..got ya by 2 mins……. 🙂
      My answer might be in your post….. 🙂
      I have ad blocker on……

  36. On March 23, 2020 at 8:44 am,
    OOTB Jerry says:

    I have been posting in the other sections. ………..without an answer……so , I decided to ask here…… 🙂

  37. On March 23, 2020 at 8:46 am,
    OOTB Jerry says:

    POINTS
    The Federal Reserve announced a barrage of new programs to help keep the market functioning.
    Among the moves is an open-ended commitment to keep buying assets under its quantitative easing measures.
    There are multiple other programs, including one for Main Street business lending and others aimed at keeping credit flowing.
    The Fed will be moving for the first time into corporate bonds, purchasing the investment-grade securities in primary and secondary markets and through exchange-traded funds.

    • On March 23, 2020 at 8:51 am,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      Points from Matthew’s posted article…………
      Whole New Scam……………..

      • On March 23, 2020 at 9:54 am,
        Excelsior says:

        Northstar @Northst18363337 on Twitter:

        “This is what is coming to all FIAT currencies as they turn to confetti #gold #silver #preciousmetals #investment”

        https://twitter.com/Northst18363337/status/1242047051707420674

        • On March 23, 2020 at 11:53 am,
          OOTB Jerry says:

          Some great tweets……on that twitter………..Ex………Thanks for posting…

          • On March 23, 2020 at 2:42 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Yeah, I like Northstar. He has some interesting macro thoughts and he is also a good technician covering the resource sector – mostly gold/Silver and GDX/GDXJ/SIL/SILJ

  38. On March 23, 2020 at 9:56 am,
    Excelsior says:

    Stock Market Indexes Update & Market Breadth Charts. Nearing Capitulation?

    22 March, 2020

    “Most markets are now down over -30% since their highs only a few months ago. With the small caps fairing the worst down over -40%. So where are now. Let’s take a look through the current charts and market breadth indicators to get an idea of the weight of evidence and if there’s any small signs of hope anywhere.”

    https://www.stageanalysis.net/blog/21629/stock-market-indexes-update-market-breadth-charts-nearing-capitulation/

  39. On March 23, 2020 at 10:07 am,
    Excelsior says:

    (SVM) Silvercorp Announces Share Repurchase Program

    “Silvercorp Metals Inc. is pleased to announce a normal course issuer bid to acquire up to 8,670,104 common shares of the Company, representing approximately 5% the 173,402,084 common shares issued and outstanding as of March 16, 2020. The repurchase program will run from March 19, 2020 to March 18, 2021. The Company is taking this action because it believes that prevailing market conditions have resulted in Silvercorp’s shares being undervalued relative to the immediate and long term value of Silvercorp’s portfolio of producing properties in China and other strategic investments.”

    http://silvercorpmetals.com/news_and_media/news/silvercorp-announces-share-repurchase-program-20200317

    • On March 23, 2020 at 10:15 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Looks like this share buyback is going well, and it was wise for (SVM) to signal to the marketplace how crazy the recent pullback was as it relates to their valuation and strategic 28% stake in NUAG.

      So far SVM is up 36%+ on the day. Kaboom!

      • On March 23, 2020 at 12:31 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        Make that 40% that SVM is up. Nice!

  40. On March 24, 2020 at 6:02 am,
    Marty says:

    Still like my buy – CEF – $12 US