Are Individuals and Investors Underestimating How Long This Shutdown Will Last?

April 5, 2020

Mike Larson joins me for a special weekend editorial discussing the possible length of the current COVID-19 shutdown. When listening and digging into the comments out of the US and Canada (especially Canada) we should all be expecting lock downs and restrictions to remain well past the month of April.

The implications for markets and the overall economy will further suffer as timelines continue to get pushed further out.

Click here to follow Mike on Twitter.

    Apr 05, 2020 05:15 AM

    We will be coping with this virus until we have natural immunity.
    We could be under lockdowns until we find an acceptable cure or vaccine.
    But lockdowns DON’T HAVE to be for all locations, all ages of people.

    Why lockdown everybody in a given location if every one in that location is known not to have the virus….all that is need is to stop the virus from entering into that location.

    That location started out as being state-sized.
    Now it is county sized.
    Soon it will be city sized.
    It all depends on when government decides to be serious. Right now I see neither knowledge or leadership.

    Apr 05, 2020 05:23 AM

    Cory says “We haven’t been shut down for a full month”

    I say we haven’t been shut down.
    If you want to understand “shut down” look at what China did.
    They shut down by sealing people in buildings to starve to death.
    China shut down by herding infected people into quarantine areas.
    China enforced shut downs by absolutely stopping travel by barricading roads.

    Apr 05, 2020 05:30 AM

    During the shut down period China sprayed chlorine dioxide throughout infected ares up to 40′ high by drones,tanker trucks and men walking the streets.

    Apr 05, 2020 05:46 AM

    The CDC added a new code in March to allow coronavirus to be determined as the cause of death based on: “clinical or epidemiological diagnosis of COVID-19 where a laboratory confirmation is inconclusive or not available,” “COVID-19 should be reported on the death certificate for all decedents where the disease caused or is assumed to have caused or contributed to death”.

    Apr 05, 2020 05:50 AM

    So World Bank issued “pandemic bonds” in 2017 with an interest rate of 12% that were set to mature in July 2020, with one catch: If “coronavirus“ became a pandemic – and in 2017 they called Coronavirus by name – then investors would lose all their money.

      Apr 05, 2020 05:45 AM

      Good catch markedtofuture.
      I posted that info as well either last week or the week before.
      Things that make you go hmmmmmm………….

      Apr 05, 2020 05:58 PM

      Another screw job…….depend on it…….

        Apr 05, 2020 05:00 PM

        Like I said before, at this point I wouldn’t doubt anything.
        With that being said I admire your passion. Things that seemed so clear to me with 9/11, became a fustration because I could not “break through” to people.
        Also engineers are not the best people to exspose an event such as 9/11.
        You asked where is the billboard? I asked the same question with 9/11.
        If I seem a bit cautious Jerry, I am over 60, take blood pressure medication and have cysts on both lungs. 3 Strikes.

          Apr 05, 2020 05:33 PM

          John, (I am not am M.D., as you know.
          At one point in time I was taking both lisinopril and amlodipine for high B.P.
          I monitor both Blood pressure and blood oxygen.Before major surgery a long while ago, I was fit, over-weight, but had a resting pulse rate around 50.

          I have almost eliminated hypertension medication by regular consumption of beets/beet powder. My consumption of beets is about the equivalent of two small beets a day spaced about 12 hours apart. You can take the information and do with it what you wish, but it is well intentioned information, you probably won’t find in any book.

            Apr 05, 2020 05:56 PM

            CFS, I am going back on Lisinpril and will start to add beets or beet powder. Will also let you know where I am one month from now re: BP.

            Apr 05, 2020 05:07 PM

            Thanks Big Al!

            Apr 05, 2020 05:11 PM

            As far as I know, beets work by generating nitric oxide into blood, which dilates blood vessels.
            Magnesium also is known to dilate blood vessels.
            Since I am self-isolating, not leaving my property, I make my own bread each day.
            I never use any measures, but I put some beet powder (few percent) in with my flour.
            It looks pink when uncooked but goes brown, so white bread looks like wholemeal colored, when cook. Does not affet taste much.

            When cooking mashed potatoes a few percent of beet powder makes it pink even when cooked, but does not make taste terrible.

            Otherwise I add the powder to gravies.

            Apr 05, 2020 05:03 PM

            UVA solar radiation also appears to lower blood pressure via the same mechanism.


            Of course, I’m not that sure you get a whole lot of solar radiation in Washington State !

    Apr 05, 2020 05:03 AM

    I don’t know what is the best solution to the covid-19 problem.

    I believe that current quarantining at home procedure is in place only to get past a situation wherein hospitals would be swamped beyond handling capabilities.
    Governments, sooner or later, will realize there are other problems equally bad.
    e.g. lack of money to buy food.
    lack of food because of disrupted supply chain.
    Mad Max scenario developing in locations of desperation.
    people ignoring rule of law, which they feel excessive.
    increasing suicides because of confinement.

    The current shut down has bought probably 2 to 3 weeks of exponential growth reduction for hospitals and within another week or so, it is possible for the Government to decide to change the shut down rules.

    The trials of hydroxychloroquine cocktail might be quickly deemed to be sufficiently helpful in reducing death rates to acceptable levels.

    I believe the country will not tolerate continuous lock down for any long period.

      Apr 05, 2020 05:20 AM

      If you stop the lock down to early and have not enough ventilators the death toll will be high

        Apr 05, 2020 05:29 AM

        I think government realizes that.
        But what is the criterion for relaxing lock down as long as hospitals can cope.

        I don’t think lock down should be relaxed in New City environs, Seattle or San Francisco and L.A. areas of CA, or New Orleans,
        but restricting the Dakotas and much of the farm belt makes little sense.

          Apr 05, 2020 05:30 AM

          New York City

          Apr 05, 2020 05:27 PM

          You don’t have a clue as to what is happening in the Midwest. But like a “typical” Californian you would know what is best .
          I suppose nobody from the Midwest goes on Cruises either.

            Apr 05, 2020 05:32 PM

            I know of a Church group that are back from a cruise to South America.
            I doubt they were tested upon return.

            Apr 05, 2020 05:48 PM

            Before they left I gave one of them my bottle of Colloidal Silver.
            Goes to show how clueless I was at the time.

            Apr 05, 2020 05:45 PM

            I lived in Indiana for 45 years and only moved to CA about 4 or 5 years ago, because of cancer and the Grand solar minimum projected in the next decade. (And I’ve lost count of the number of cruises I’ve been on, started by flying out of Indiana, but I’m not the average Hoosier.)

            Apr 05, 2020 05:53 PM

            Total Infected people right now:
            Alaska 143
            Wyoming 153
            North Dakota 173
            South Dakota 187
            Montana 217
            And about 1/3 rd of those are in hospital.
            So what are the odds of catching disease in those states, if freedom of movement was allowed, but all people had to wear simple mask ? Pretty damn low, wouldn’t you agree ?

            Apr 05, 2020 05:02 PM

            If everybody had a mask, I would be on board.

            Apr 05, 2020 05:07 PM
            Apr 05, 2020 05:44 PM

            The 2017-18 flu season killed 508 people per day.
            The 2018-19 flu killed 383 per day which totaled 34,000
            Lung Cancer kills 433 per day
            Heart Disease kills 1,772 per day
            Wednesday Covid-19 went over 1,000 deaths per day.

            Apr 05, 2020 05:02 PM

            Interesting, John, just how many more folks are now interested in these numbers. Heart disease is still the number one killer. By the way, are your numbers world wide or just domestic? I should check that myself, but today I am feeling lazy!

            Apr 05, 2020 05:47 PM

            Masks can be made at home e.g. out of t-shirt or scarf, that are adequate.

            Apr 05, 2020 05:21 PM

            That is U.S numbers.
            CDC states that worldwide flu deaths range from 291,000 to 646,000.

      Apr 05, 2020 05:15 PM

      Just how long do you think the “public will tolerate it”? Depending on the numbers, I think that two months is a reasonable projection.

        Apr 05, 2020 05:28 PM

        Thats a great question Big Al.
        From what I seen so far, People will not take this seriously until someone close to them dies.
        When I was 14, I lost a brother to a bacterial infection. The test took more time than he had. Today that test can be done almost immediately.
        Even if this is over played, If I could get my hands on some n-95 masks,
        I would say “Let Her Rip”

    Apr 05, 2020 05:23 AM

    I think Cuomo is blame-shifting. Playing politics.
    He does not have enough medical staff to handle the number of ventilators he has.

    Apr 05, 2020 05:25 AM

    While AL is pushing Kaiser Permanantee Rockefeller allopathic medical health collapse/dependency machine, non-health care propaganda( his total right)…and dr. is pushing Tylenol to fight COVID-19…lol…We have people in the realm of independent media experts begging the government to release Zinc on the people to crush the pandemic spread…Who to believe??…It is so

      Apr 05, 2020 05:33 AM

      Bill Gates wants to make money off vaccines, perhaps ?

        Apr 05, 2020 05:00 PM

        I already said that……..

          Apr 05, 2020 05:50 PM

          Gates is not going to save anyone……..Planned Parenthood…..

            Apr 05, 2020 05:41 PM

            So I have to assume that he is a big contributor to Planned Parenthood.

            Apr 05, 2020 05:53 PM

            Owl…….his mother was director of Planned Parenthood…

            Apr 06, 2020 06:24 AM

            Jerry, had a dream last night that Bill Gates wanted to talk to all of us….so, we were all gathered in a small room…waiting for him to come in…and he does…then he shoots me! And not with a needle. Pulled out a revolver.

            Apr 06, 2020 06:52 AM

            Was Hilly their………with a nail gun…… Epstein, Hilly , And Billy Gates…..

    Apr 05, 2020 05:59 AM

    Just about time to sight in the 7mm and let the neighbors know I’m home.

    Apr 05, 2020 05:01 PM

    A collection of BBC short sections on CoV-II

    Apr 05, 2020 05:03 PM

    OLder, obese, but fit….still adds up to deep sh*t, if you ask me.
    I hope he takes a lot of Vitamin C, plus Vit D, zinc, quercetin, etc.
    There is anecdotal evidence HCQ has to be started early to be effective.

    Evidence out of China indicates Vitamin C as most essential against their bioweapon.

      Apr 05, 2020 05:04 PM

      Please elaborate with a source on this one. Thanks

        Apr 05, 2020 05:24 PM

        The source for Vitamin C, was a whole train load of nothing but Vitamin C delivered to Wuhan months ago. I doubt if I could find that reference.

        Evidence of Bioweapon comes from the genomic structure published both by China and India and several others, and computing probabilities for the three or four additions of protein spikes, which includes the ACE2 and HIV proteins all happening simultaneously.
        Plus India claimed to find traces of CRISPR which indicates human manipulation of the genome.

    Apr 05, 2020 05:30 PM

    Individuals and Investors may be under estimating how long the shutdown will last, but they have also under estimated the parasitic drag of the financial industry .
    In 2013 Ben Bernanke made 200,000.00 as the Fed Chair.
    He now makes 250,000.00 for a two hour speaking engagement.
    Former Treasury Secretary, former CEO Goldman Sachs, Hank Paulson boasted that the relationships that he forged with the Chinese Elite were better than the U S Administration.No major Economy has decreased it’s debt to GDP since 2007. As finance takes up an increasing larger share of GDP, investment in the real economy falls.

    Apr 05, 2020 05:51 PM

    How come I only hear about this stuff on R.T?

      Apr 05, 2020 05:52 PM

      “Would You Like Brain Damage With That?

        Apr 05, 2020 05:58 PM

        More worryingly, it affected over 100 of the mice’s genes, including one for controlling oxyocin, the love and bonding hormone.

      Apr 05, 2020 05:44 PM

      Problems with all seed/bean based oils have been in the literature in increasing frequency over the last few years. I have never used soy oil, but swapped from Corn to canola to now coconut, but I swap that with butter regularly depending on what I’m using it for….basically all oils seem bad.

      The mice model does not always translate into humans.

    Apr 05, 2020 05:52 PM

    Hey Jerry…You out there???

    Did you listen to Rick this weekend?

      Apr 05, 2020 05:59 PM

      Hey Ebo………..I am listening to him now……

        Apr 05, 2020 05:04 PM

        Stress……..Like I said………Stay calm…….Hyper BS, Fear MONGER
        Death By Govt……..Ha, talking about BILL GATES, the little jew…
        Vaccines have never worked.

          Apr 05, 2020 05:07 PM

          A message consisting of a set of ten guidelines or principles is engraved on the Georgia Guidestones[8] in eight different languages, one language on each face of the four large upright stones. Moving clockwise around the structure from due north, these languages are: English, Spanish, Swahili, Hindi, Hebrew, Arabic, Traditional Chinese, and Russian.

          Maintain humanity under 500,000,000 in perpetual balance with nature.
          Guide reproduction wisely — improving fitness and diversity.
          Unite humanity with a living new language.

          Apr 05, 2020 05:27 PM

          My wife read this lady’s book 18 yrs plus ago, we changed our diet….

            Apr 05, 2020 05:36 PM

            I am glad she is talking freely on cancer…..and Jesus Christ…..

            Apr 05, 2020 05:37 PM

            Spanish flu…….this Flu ……….is a JOKE……..

          Apr 05, 2020 05:58 PM

          I am still wondering just what you have against Bill Gates.

            Apr 05, 2020 05:05 PM

            Bill Gates is not working in the best interest of man kind….

            Apr 05, 2020 05:24 PM

            That is an interesting opinion, Box. At this moment in time, to be honest, I have not thought that much about Mr. Gates. I have never met the man, but my son-in-law has some type of management position and I have heard nothing negative about either him or the company.

            Please elaborate if you would.

            Apr 05, 2020 05:13 PM

            Global elite…………goal……….population of 500,000,000 world wide…

            Apr 05, 2020 05:22 PM

            Where did you get this number, Box?

            Apr 05, 2020 05:40 PM

            Georgia guide stones maybe?

            Apr 05, 2020 05:52 PM

            Yep…….b…….is spot on…….goes to show Owl. does not read all the post… 🙂

    Apr 05, 2020 05:06 PM

    All insiders understand one unbreakable rule, they don’t criticize other insiders.
    In Monocultures, winners are are those who operate best in the system.
    Monoculture. Business and the Military.

      Apr 05, 2020 05:46 PM

      Hey John…….you might like the podcast that EBO submitted. above……..

    Apr 05, 2020 05:17 PM

    5 o’clock spike in the Conventionals.
    “The Invisible Hand”
    Oh wait, they told us they were going to do it this time.

    Apr 05, 2020 05:22 PM

    Flip the script on Covid-19

    Apr 05, 2020 05:31 PM

    Oregon State University. Linus Pauling Istitute
    “Flattening the Curve”
    Linus Pauling “Vitamin C and the Common Cold”

      Apr 05, 2020 05:01 PM

      A report about an unidentified Oregon state researcher without giving details about his expertise……

      Apr 05, 2020 05:54 PM

      Linus had some valuable thoughts, at least to me, about Vitamin C

        Apr 05, 2020 05:13 PM

        I wanted to post one more saying Vitamin C wasn’t proven as of yet as beneficial against the Covid Virus.
        I was posting to fast.
        Here is a similar one

          Apr 05, 2020 05:21 PM

          Thanks John

    Apr 05, 2020 05:35 PM

    “No More War” “How to Live Longer and Feel Better” Linus Pauling

    Apr 05, 2020 05:10 PM

    Now we have an even bigger worry….

    Getting bitten by a tiger might give us covid-19

    Apr 05, 2020 05:40 PM

    Fable and old wives tales……….wake up people…..

      Apr 05, 2020 05:45 PM

      1 Corinthians 3:19 King James Version (KJV)
      19 For the wisdom of this world is foolishness with God. For it is written, He taketh the wise in their own craftiness

        Apr 05, 2020 05:47 PM

        Romans 12……
        2 And be not conformed to this world: but be ye transformed by the renewing of your mind, that ye may prove what is that good, and acceptable, and perfect, will of God.

          Apr 05, 2020 05:51 PM

          So true, Box. I studied Acts 24 earlier today and will go through Acts 25 again this evening.

          Apr 05, 2020 05:42 PM

          Amen, Box

        Apr 05, 2020 05:52 PM

        You seem to be stuck on Paul’s letters, Box

          Apr 05, 2020 05:57 PM

          Yes, and when you get there , I will tell you why……

            Apr 05, 2020 05:59 PM

            I have been telling you for years……and eventually, you will see what I have been talking about….

            Apr 05, 2020 05:01 PM

            It took me a long time, ……and the only way , I think you get it,… study to show you are approved.
            2 Timothy 2:15 King James Version (KJV)
            15 Study to shew thyself approved unto God, a workman that needeth not to be ashamed, rightly dividing the word of truth.

            King James Version (KJV)

            Apr 05, 2020 05:34 PM

            Obviously great advice. Yet another letter from Paul!!

            Apr 05, 2020 05:35 PM

            Where exactly is “there” Box?

            Apr 05, 2020 05:46 PM

            Colossians 1:26-27 King James Version (KJV)
            26 Even the mystery which hath been hid from ages and from generations, but now is made manifest to his saints:

            27 To whom God would make known what is the riches of the glory of this mystery among the Gentiles; which is Christ in you, the hope of glory:

            Apr 05, 2020 05:48 PM

            The Mystery of the Gospel Revealed
            3 For this reason I, Paul, a prisoner of Christ Jesus on behalf of you Gentiles— 2 assuming that you have heard of the stewardship of God’s grace that was given to me for you, 3 how the mystery was made known to me by revelation, as I have written briefly. 4 When you read this, you can perceive my insight into the mystery of Christ, 5 which was not made known to the sons of men in other generations as it has now been revealed to his holy apostles and prophets by the Spirit. 6 This mystery is[a] that the Gentiles are fellow heirs, members of the same body, and partakers of the promise in Christ Jesus through the gospel.

            Apr 05, 2020 05:50 PM

            GRACE plus NOTHING…….if, you do not get this one , you do not get it……

            Apr 05, 2020 05:59 PM

            Ephesians 2:8-9 King James Version (KJV)
            8 For by grace are ye saved through faith; and that not of yourselves: it is the gift of God:

            9 Not of works, lest any man should boast.

    Apr 05, 2020 05:54 PM

    I know were in trouble when The New York Times was using Larry David as a reasonable voice.
    He was the one on Seinfeld that had a picture of Jesus in the bathroom, and when he urinated a drop slashed onto the Jesus picture and they were mocking Jesus crying.
    Nothing could not be more in your face.

      Apr 05, 2020 05:36 PM

      John, I never watched Seinfeld so I was completely unaware of that. Thank you

        Apr 05, 2020 05:37 PM

        To call that “poor taste” is the understatement of the Decade!

      Apr 05, 2020 05:03 PM

      Seinfeld jewish par chance?

    Apr 05, 2020 05:03 PM

    Who better than Larry David, the father of “Seinfeld” and “Curb Your Enthusiasm,” to guide us through the thicket of being together, alone? Maureen Dowd interviewed the comedian over FaceTime (something Mr. David has grown to like in quarantine).

      Apr 05, 2020 05:25 PM

      I would like to watch the discussion and will try to find it now.

    Apr 05, 2020 05:58 PM

    Hi Jerry:
    I am in Corinthians as well today: 11:19
    But, of course, there must be divisions among you so that you who have God’s approval will be recognized.

    Apr 05, 2020 05:56 PM

    Our President’s favorite Bank getting ready foe a header?

    Apr 06, 2020 06:40 AM

    The algo writers believe the miners are not a stock, a safe haven, a commodity, a precious metals producer or a counter intuitive investment. I don’t believe I like algo writers.

    Apr 06, 2020 06:45 AM

    A bit from Rick Ackerman’s latest blog post:

    Could halting the reversal of American’s long run of prosperity be as simple as printing tons of money? I somehow doubt it. But I am still not quite ready to cede the endgame to the inflationists. For even if a series of bailouts injects as much as $2o trillion into the system, that would still be far less than the sum remaining to be deflated from the asset side of America’s ethereal balance sheet. At early February’s peak, we owned in the aggregate about $32 trillion dollars worth of residential real estate, $16 trillion of commercial property and $40 trillion in stocks, for a total of $88 trillion. This sum was effectively reduced by $15 trillion when the stock market bottomed on March 23. Does anyone actually believe the low is in? In any event, real estate has not yet begun to collapse because transactions have temporarily dried up. But when price discovery returns to this crucial store of the nation’s wealth, it stands to be an even more powerful deflator than falling share prices. Indeed, were property values to fall as hard as they did during the 2007-08 crash, it would reduce the private sector’s balance sheet by a further $16 trillion.

    So where does that leave us? Better sit down for this, because those assets, all $88 trillion worth, are just a drop in the bucket compared to the financial derivatives edifice for which they, along with the world’s supply of oil and natural gas, are the chief source of collateral. Financial derivatives constitute a $1.5 quadrillion-dollar market — that’s $1,500,000,000,000,000 — and even a thousand helicopters filled with Benjamins could not keep this black hole from imploding. Nor is it certain whether Nancy Pelosi and her ilk, presented with an unparalleled opportunity to give away vastly more OPM than all of their predecessors combined, will be able to muster the crazed gumption to undertake fiscal countermeasures commensurate with the problem.

    All Eyes on Illinois

    But here’s the wild card: the great state of Illinois, birthplace of Abraham Lincoln and Ronald Reagan. Its pension plan is headed toward certain bankruptcy, undoubtedly sooner rather than later, and it remains to be seen whether Uncle Sam will go “all-in” attempting to save it. If so, you can be sure that two dozen other tottering states, including California, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut and Massachusetts, will scream “Help!!” I rate the political outcome a toss-up, because even the dumbest lawmaker on Capitol Hill — AOC, to name names — can probably see that only a hyperinflation could result. This would not be your grandmother’s QE, where the mountebanks who run the central bank are tasked merely with pumping up stocks and real estate via easy credit. No sirree, this is the kind of monetization that would require sending out checks every month to more than a million recipients. Provide the same free lunch, in perpetuity, to every public-job retiree in every tottering state, and Fed helicopter money would soon lurch toward infinity. The predictable result after just a few months is that the $1687 check the Illinois DOT retiree receives every four weeks would buy a meager assortment of groceries. This outcome is so obvious that even Pelosi and AOL would see it coming.

    That doesn’t mean we can rule out an open-ended bailout, since it is politicians and their lackeys on the Open Market Committee who would decide. Assuming they agree, as is their wont, that “Voters will LOVE this!” we are no longer talking about a mere $20 trillion bailout, but one with no practical limit. This would come on top of national debt that is already at $23 trillion and growing by an unprecedented $500 billion a month. The Guvmint will eventually have to cap interest rates, since allowing them to rise to market levels would raise the burden of debt for all of us to a fatal threshold. Under such circumstances, the Fed would become the only buyer of Treasury paper — not because the banksters are economic dunces, which they manifestly are, but because their role as lender of last resort remains legally unconstrained and politically unimagined.

    Boxcars of Digital Money

    Before hyperinflation erupts with the force of ten H-bombs, I expect deflation to play out ruinously in the private sector, impelled by a crash in real estate, commodities, household and business income. When the Guvmint comes riding to the rescue in a way that dwarfs the paltry trillions advanced us so far, that’s when hyperinflation will take off. It will probably play out more quickly than the Weimar hyperinflation of 1921-24, since the means to effect it are digital rather than via boxcars stuffed to the roof with paper currency. This scenario will be extremely tricky for those who would secure their economic future with gold and silver. That’s because bullion will be trying urgently to separate out the mere suspicion that fiat currency’s days are numbered from the actual moment of its inevitable demise. Although I have long doubted gold could soar to the sensational heights predicted by some seers, I am now open to the possibility. I have remained firmly in the deflationist camp for more 30 years because I believed cumulative debt would eventually act like a black hole, sucking us into its maw so slowly at first that we would not feel the pull until it became irresistible. The pandemic has altered this dynamic by giving politicians and banksters a popular excuse for making mind-blowingly reckless decisions that are happening too quickly to challenge or resist. If the courage and sanity to oppose them exists, it will surface in token op-ed essays by the few who understand why money needs to be backed by something scarce that has real and enduring value.

      Apr 06, 2020 06:54 AM

      Tell Rick Abe Lincoln was not born in Illinois………

        Apr 06, 2020 06:56 AM

        Abraham Lincoln Birthplace National Historical Park preserves two separate farm sites in LaRue County, Kentucky where Abraham Lincoln was born and lived early in his childhood

          Apr 06, 2020 06:03 AM

          LOL! Will do Jerry.

            Apr 06, 2020 06:32 PM

            Charles……THANKS FOR POSTING……….appreciate it….Jootb