Ed Moya - Senior Market Analyst at OANDA – Tue 14 Apr, 2020

The disconnect in market optimism and what companies are forecasting

Ed Moya joins me today to balance the continued market strength with the negative guidance from companies. We also look to the action in precious metals and base metals and what they are telling us about the potential of inflation.

Click here to visit the OANDA website and follow along with Ed’s daily notes.


Comments:
  1. On April 14, 2020 at 10:12 am,
    cfs says:

    Perhaps the herd knows more than any individual, Cory.

    Because of asymptomatic transmission if this BMJ article is correct:
    https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1375
    It is possible China has reached herd immunity in certain areas.
    If that is true, the CFR is much, much lower than thought.
    If that is true, Trump should lift the quarantine VERY SOON.
    If that is true, people will return to work and the economy WILL REBOUND.

  2. On April 14, 2020 at 10:22 am,
    cfs says:
  3. On April 14, 2020 at 10:24 am,
    Wolfster says:
    • On April 14, 2020 at 3:39 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Nice. I just realized you had posted this Orezone news release here, and I had posted the news over on the David E. blog here the KER today.

  4. On April 14, 2020 at 10:25 am,
    cfs says:
    • On April 14, 2020 at 10:48 am,
      irishtony says:

      cfs…I can see this snowballing , people are fed up playing ” THEIR ” silly games.

  5. On April 14, 2020 at 10:42 am,
    Wolfster says:

    Nice to Americas gold and silver finally catching up. Love how impact is looking too. Question is do we see a new ATH for gold before the end of April???

    • On April 14, 2020 at 12:39 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Yep USAS and IPT and solid companies and are more heavily weighted in my portfolio.

      USAS up over 13% today, but IPT down 6%.

      It was also nice to see Silver with a $16 handle earlier, although it is currently back down to $15.99.

        • On April 14, 2020 at 5:20 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          That darn newsflow! 😉

          • On April 14, 2020 at 5:53 pm,
            Matthew says:

            That darn quantifiable dilution.

          • On April 14, 2020 at 5:57 pm,
            Matthew says:
          • On April 14, 2020 at 6:57 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            We discussed this on yesterday’s blog that almost all liquid gold & silver miners will mirror the moves of Silver tick for tick.

            Here is the chart of the correlation to JAG Jaguar Mining a Gold producer to Silver, to the Silver price.

            http://schrts.co/tEczDZFe

          • On April 14, 2020 at 6:58 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Here is an even tighter correlation to the Silver price from (AR) Argonaut Gold – which is a Gold producer and developer.

            http://schrts.co/DHRmTibC

          • On April 14, 2020 at 7:02 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Also, quantifiable dilutions is newsflow, just like quantifiable drill results, or quantifiable economic studies, etc…. That is all fundamental data, and as mentioned, newsflow can temporarily swamp the technicals.

            I already agreed with you that price is the prime mover on yesterday’s blog.

            “Over longer periods of time, like the 6 year chart you posted, then I completely agree with you that underlying commodities prices are the “prime mover.” I didn’t say that news is the prime mover, but rather it is a catalyst, and it is also cumulative.

            We completely agree there that in general, most miners follow the underlying trend of their respective commodity (be it Gold, Silver, Nickel, Copper, Uranium, Oil, whatever), if they are a liquid and regularly traded stock.”

            “All I’m saying is that when news first breaks, then for short duration periods it can swamp technicals to the upside or downside, and then that data and price action is ingested into the charts and TA takes back over. However, the fundamental news lingers with investors and analysts projecting what it could mean in price action, and is the juice that fuels new buyers and investors, providing the liquidity and trading in the first place.”

          • On April 14, 2020 at 7:12 pm,
            Matthew says:

            I don’t know why you keep bringing up JAG and AR 🤦‍♂️

          • On April 14, 2020 at 8:02 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            It isn’t a complex point to grasp Matthew. I’ve posted Jag and Argonaut’s charts to illustrate the point that most of the liquid miners (be they Gold or Silver) are correlated with Silver’s price Tick for Tick! Silver and the mining stocks tend to all travel in tandem.

            I don’t know why you keep acting like Brixton has only moved in tandem with the silver prices the last few years because of it’s silver in the ground?

            During that time period they had periods where they marketed themselves as a base metals company with more focus on the Copper than the Gold at Thorn, with the Cobalt/Nickel/Copper at Hudson Bay, and then a whole stint chasing Diamonds in 2018.

            Last year in 2019, all of the focus was on their Thorn project with Copper & Gold, and Atlin Gold project, with hardly any focus on Hog Heaven, and H.H. was not why investors were following BBB in 2018 or 2019. In 2019 BBB had shelved their Silver projects, (after considering spinning out their Langis/Hudson Bay Silver/Cobalt projects in 2018, and calling them non-core assets in 2019. Their plan was to JV them out to an interested party.

            Their narrative has been all over the place in 7 different commodities, and only recently have they decided to pump Hog Heaven again, after Thorn and Atlin Gold projects underwhelmed the market last year.

            The fact that they track the Silver price is as significant as all the other Gold and Silver projects that track the Silver price tick for tick. That is because the PM miners and Silver are very correlated across the board, not proof that the H.H. ounces in the ground are why it is trading as it does. Again, BBB didn’t even acquire Hog Heaven until July 2017, a full year after the huge surge in 2016, when they didn’t have hardly any defined ounces in the ground.

            Hopefully that helps clear it up.

          • On April 15, 2020 at 2:13 am,
            Matthew says:

            🤦‍♂️

      • On April 14, 2020 at 5:20 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        Updated figures: USAS Americas Gold and Silver closed up 16.3% today. Nice!

        • On April 14, 2020 at 5:39 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          There were a couple of other high flying Silver miners in my portfolio today on the nice move higher above $16 on the futures markets.

          (ABRA) Abraplata Resource Corp – up 30.77%

          (REX) Orex Minerals Inc – up 26.67%

          (BBB) Brixton Metals Corp – up 16.67%

          (VZLA) Vizsla Resources Corp – up 14.29%

          (DV) Dolly Varden Silver Corp – up 8.62%

          (ASM) Avino Silver & Gold – up 8.48%

          • On April 14, 2020 at 5:42 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            2 stocks with substantial Silver and base metals exposure that really shot higher today:

            (AZR) Azaraga Metals Corp – up 73.33% (wow!)

            (SPD) Silver Predator Corp – up 61.54% (also wow!)

  6. On April 14, 2020 at 11:43 am,
    Snowy says:

    Uranium is breaking out. Spot is above $31/pound +4.53% today (so far).

    • On April 14, 2020 at 11:54 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Agreed Stormy. The markets are still open, but so far in trading the U stocks are responding nicely.

      Symbol – Uranium Stocks – Daily Change %

      AGE.AX Alligator Energy Limited +50.00%
      ACB.AX A-Cap Energy Limited +30.00%
      EPM.AX Eclipse Metals Limited +25.00%
      PEN.AX Peninsula Energy Limited +22.22%
      FCU.TO Fission Uranium Corp. +21.05%
      AL.V ALX Resources Corp. +16.67%
      UUUU Energy Fuels Inc. +16.0305%
      UEX.TO UEX Corporation +14.81%
      AAZ.V Azincourt Energy Corp. +14.29%
      FSY.TO Forsys Metals Corp. +14.29%
      UEC Uranium Energy Corp. +14.3331%
      NXE.TO NexGen Energy Ltd. +13.5593%
      MGA.TO Mega Uranium Ltd. +13.33%
      BEA.V Belmont Resources Inc. +12.50%
      LTBR Lightbridge Corporation +11.94%
      CVV.V CanAlaska Uranium Ltd. +11.63%
      GXU.V GoviEx Uranium Inc. +11.54%
      VMY.AX Vimy Resources Limited +11.43%
      ERC.V Eros Resources Corp. +11.11%
      AEC.V Anfield Energy Inc. +11.11%
      UWE.TO U3O8 Corp. +10.00%
      U.TO Uranium Participation Corporation +9.43%
      BOE.AX Boss Resources Limited +9.26%
      URG Ur-Energy Inc. +8.40%
      BMN.AX Bannerman Resources Limited +7.89%
      BKY.L Berkeley Energia Limited +7.89%
      AZZ.TO Azarga Uranium Corp. +6.67%
      GCL.L Geiger Counter Limited +5.90%
      ISO.V IsoEnergy Ltd. +5.43%
      PWM.V Power Metals Corp. +5.13%
      MAW.TO Mawson Resources Limited +5.00%
      DNN Denison Mines Corp. +4.14%
      LAM.TO Laramide Resources Ltd. +3.77%
      WWR Westwater Resources, Inc. +2.27%
      API.CN Appia Energy Corp. +2.22%
      URA Global X Uranium ETF +1.92%
      LEU Centrus Energy Corp. +1.73%

      • On April 14, 2020 at 11:58 am,
        Snowy says:

        I like that post! Stay away from UEC, but really you can just make a dart board out of those.

        • On April 14, 2020 at 12:01 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          Sorry I meant Snowy not Stormy. Ha!

          Out of curiosity – Are you @Snowywindows over at ceo.ca?

          • On April 14, 2020 at 12:19 pm,
            Snowy says:

            Yes I am! I like to spout my nonsense on multiple boards/comment posts!
            Twitter is @uraniumtails, but I really have 0 care on who/how many people follow me.

            Experts are Marcelo Lopez, Mike Alkin, Tim Chilleri, Segra Resource Partners. Very few other people actually have as clear a picture on what’s happening behind the scenes

          • On April 14, 2020 at 12:30 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Good to have you posting here on the KER – snowy. I follow your comments in the Uranium room over at ceo.ca and enjoy getting your insights.

            Yeah I like Mike Alkin and also follow Quakes over at Twitter. Crux investor has been doing some good interviews with the U companies as well.

            Cheers!

  7. On April 14, 2020 at 12:53 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    Inflation: Good and Hard

    Myrmikan Research – Dan Oliver – April 13, 2020

    “There were reasons to believe gold might not dip this time and, in any case,
    Myrmikan was comfortable with its long-expressed agnosticism under the
    assumption that any deflationary impulse would be met by sudden and extreme Fed action. We were not disappointed.”

    http://www.myrmikan.com/pub/Myrmikan_Research_2020_04_13.pdf

  8. On April 14, 2020 at 2:41 pm,
    Marty says:

    One of my favorite analysts. Yet, there is no mention of silver involvement in his mindset, only gold

    • On April 14, 2020 at 3:33 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Yeah, I really like Dan Oliver, and he’s a big picture macro-economics pundit covering the general markets, bonds, etc… so it makes sense that he’d focus mostly on Gold, more so than Silver.

      Even still, as the Gold price keeps ratcheting higher, it is dragging Silver along with it. Silver had a $16 handle today, which isn’t bad considering it had $12 handle just a few weeks back. Eventually “poor man’s gold” will appreciate more in price and start out-performing the yellow metal.